| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格下跌 6 元至 5876 元/吨。持仓方面，主力 合约 2509 持仓量为 3.86 万手，持仓+155 手。货市场，华东市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳 定在 5925 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定在 6000 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 32.7 万吨，较上周减少 2.72 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 71.5%，较上周下降 5.9%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5671 元，下降 0.9%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-214 元/吨，环比增加 86 元/吨。 | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 弱 货 跌 | 2、需求方面，2025 年 5 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 61.9 万吨，较上月增加 3.82 万吨。 2025 年累计出口量 269.55 万吨。 3、虽然美国商业原油库存下降，但成品油库存增长引发夏季需求减弱担忧，国际油 价下跌。NYMEX 原油期货 08 合约 66.38 跌 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend going long on all four stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market. With the recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points, it is recommended to go long on stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely, falling first and then rising, with growth - style indices being strong. The total turnover of the two markets was 1.44 trillion yuan, showing a contraction in volume. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6462 points, up 19 points or 0.30%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6017 points, down 1 point or - 0.03%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2740 points, down 6 points or - 0.23%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4007 points, down 11 points or - 0.30%. Among industry and theme ETFs, auto parts, film and television, robotics, traditional Chinese medicine, and biovaccine ETFs led the gains, while steel, semiconductor materials, and software ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices, chemical pharmaceuticals, film and television theaters, reducers, home appliance parts, and auto services led the gains, while components, games, energy metals, lithium extraction from salt lakes, and small and medium - sized bank indices led the losses. The settled funds of stock index futures for CSI 1000, SSE 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 had net outflows of 53, 34, 22, and 12 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The Central Urban Work Conference deployed 7 key tasks, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative, livable, green, resilient, and smart cities [1] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun said that Chinese AI models are "world - class", and AI is changing every industry, with China's open - source AI being a catalyst for global progress [1] - Great Wall Securities believes that the humanoid robot industry is expanding rapidly, with many domestic and foreign manufacturers launching mass - produced products, and the commercialization process is expected to accelerate further [1] - Zuckerberg announced that Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers, indicating confidence in medium - term revenue growth and a strong signal that the AI capital expenditure cycle is far from over [1] - A survey by Bank of America's fund managers shows that global risk appetite has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, with funds flowing into US, European stocks, and the technology sector at a record pace, and cash allocation dropping below the 3.9% warning line, suggesting a possible market adjustment [1] - The South Korean government is considering "strategic concessions" on some agricultural product import restrictions to gain more room for a broader trade agreement with the US, which has triggered a strong backlash from farmers' groups [2] - France's 40 - billion - euro fiscal adjustment plan will focus on increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, but each aspect faces great resistance. With limited tax measures, the main part of the adjustment will come from spending cuts. The yield of France's 30 - year bonds has risen to 4.2140%, the highest since 2011 [2] - The US CPI in June failed to ease tariff concerns, leading investors to reduce their expectations of an interest rate cut in September, and a sell - off of long - term US bonds. A large amount of funds flowed into the options market, betting that the yield of 30 - year US bonds will jump to 5.3% in about five weeks [2] - JPMorgan Chase warned that as tariff pressure spreads to a wider range of commodities, price pressure will intensify in the coming months, and the Fed may remain on hold [2] - Trump said that pharmaceutical tariffs may be introduced "by the end of the month", and the timeline for introducing chip tariffs is similar to that of pharmaceutical tariffs [2] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3500 - point mark. Citi believes that China's exports in June showed resilience, and imports had their first year - on - year positive growth this year, reflecting improved domestic demand and potentially supporting stable economic growth. Great Wall Securities believes that the commercialization process of the humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate [1][2] Future Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, and the Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3500 - point mark. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. The global reallocation of financial assets is moving away from the US, which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The anti - involution trend is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market. With the recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points, the wealth effect of the stock market is emerging, and the inflow of funds is expected to accelerate in the future [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, it is recommended to go long on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a capital - driven upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3500 - point mark. For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [2]

Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global risk preference has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, with funds flowing into US stocks, European stocks, and the technology sector, and cash allocation dropping below the 3.9% warning line, indicating a possible market adjustment [1] - US 6 - month CPI did not ease tariff concerns, investors reduced their expectations of a September rate cut, and there was a sell - off of US long - term bonds, with a large amount of funds flowing into the options market betting on a rise in the 30 - year US Treasury yield [1] - As tariff pressure spreads, price pressure will intensify in the coming months, and the Fed may remain on hold [1] - Meta plans to invest billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers, signaling confidence in medium - term revenue growth and an ongoing AI capital expenditure cycle [1] - The French 40 - billion - euro fiscal adjustment plan focuses on revenue increase and expenditure reduction, with most likely coming from spending cuts, and the 30 - year bond yield has reached the highest since 2011 [1] - Trump may introduce pharmaceutical tariffs at the end of the month, and the timeline for chip tariffs is similar [1] - China's GDP grew 5.3% in the first half of the year, Asian exports are strong, and market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and accelerate in 2026 [1] - The US 6 - month Markit manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indexes also expanded [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition may boost listed company performance, the European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, and Germany's industry shows signs of recovery [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Information - Global risk preference growth and market warning: Global risk preference has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, funds are flowing into stocks and tech sectors, and cash allocation is below 3.9%, suggesting a possible market adjustment [1] - US bond market and tariff impact: US 6 - month CPI didn't ease tariff concerns, leading to a sell - off of long - term bonds and funds flowing into the options market betting on a 30 - year US Treasury yield rise [1] - Fed's stance on tariffs: As tariff pressure spreads, price pressure will intensify, and the Fed may wait for clearer inflation and employment signals [1] - Meta's investment in data centers: Meta plans to invest billions in data centers, showing confidence in revenue and an ongoing AI capital cycle [1] - AI evaluation: Nvidia CEO says Chinese AI models are world - class, and AI is changing every industry [1] - French fiscal adjustment: France's 40 - billion - euro fiscal plan faces resistance, with most likely from spending cuts, and the 30 - year bond yield is at a high [1] - Trump's tariff plans: Trump may introduce pharmaceutical and chip tariffs soon [1] Global Economic Logic - Economic growth: China's GDP grew 5.3% in H1, Asian exports are strong, and the market expects Fed rate cuts [1] - Manufacturing PMI: US 6 - month Markit manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indexes also expanded [1] - Other economic factors: China's rectification may boost corporate performance, the European Central Bank has cut rates, and Germany's industry shows signs of recovery [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 'year-on-year growth' of the current data has limited practical significance, and the market should focus on the relative strength between the current supply increase and the increase already reflected in the futures market [7]. - The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. - The most likely way to reduce capacity this year is passive capacity reduction driven by diseases, but large - cycle market trends still await active capacity reduction driven by low prices [12]. - The main trading logic of live - hog futures this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are basically fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic under different drivers [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 'Year - on - Year Growth' Effective Significance Is Insufficient - Due to capacity adjustments in 2023 - 2024, the year - on - year growth in 2025 supply was expected and already reflected in the futures market. Comparing 2025 data with 2023 shows that although the number of live - hogs in the first quarter of 2025 was higher than in 2024 but lower than in 2023, the increase in pork output was due to higher slaughter weights [7][8]. - Comparing the first half of 2025 with the same period in 2024 and 2023, the decline in the number of live - hog inventories in the second quarter of 2025 narrowed compared to 2023, and the year - on - year growth rate of live - hog slaughter in the first half of the year increased compared to the first quarter, indicating a continuous recovery in inventory. However, the contribution of weight to pork output in the second quarter weakened compared to the first quarter, and overall supply pressure still exists [8][9]. 3.2 Pig Capacity Cycle Issues and Thoughts 3.2.1 Current Stage of the Pig Capacity Cycle - As of the end of the second quarter, the number of breeding sows increased quarter - on - quarter. The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. 3.2.2 How to Achieve Capacity Reduction - There are three ways to reduce capacity: active capacity reduction driven by low prices (currently ineffective as pigs and piglets are profitable); passive capacity reduction caused by diseases (need to pay attention to winter disease prevention at the end of the year); and forced capacity reduction driven by environmental protection policies (the most likely way currently, which will promote large - scale development) [11]. 3.2.3 Main Trading Logic of Live - Hog Futures - The main trading logic this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic. In the long - term, maintain a short - selling strategy unless the number of newborn piglets decreases; in the medium - term, it may operate in a wide range around the expected support and pressure of spot pig prices; in the short - term, it is trading the repair of the futures discount driven by the weight - reduction expectation [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a series of global economic and financial news and analyzes their potential impacts. It shows that although there are certain risks in the global economic situation, such as the escalating Japanese debt crisis and potential trade disputes, there are also positive factors, including the resilience of China's exports and the improvement of domestic demand, the strong performance of the US economy, and the expansion of the European economy. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Important Information - The Japanese debt crisis has escalated, with the 10 - year yield approaching 1.6%, the highest since 2008. Market concerns about a change in fiscal policy may trigger a "bond vigilante" sell - off [1] - UK retail sales in June increased 3.1% year - on - year, exceeding the 1% growth in May and setting the second - largest monthly increase this year [1] - Meta has launched two giant AI clusters, Prometheus and Hyperion, to break through the computing power bottleneck. Prometheus has a scale of up to 1 GW [1] - A well - known asset management institution believes that the investment opportunity in emerging market bonds is "once - in - a - generation" [1] - Citi believes that China's exports in June showed resilience, and imports had their first year - on - year positive growth, reflecting improved domestic demand [1] - The EU is formulating a retaliatory plan and will propose a new tariff list covering about 72 billion euros of US imports [1] - Trump said that if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved within 50 days, the US will impose "very severe, about 100%" tariffs on Russia [1] Global Economic Logic - China's GDP grew 5.3% in the first half of the year. Asian exports are strong, and the US inventory has not increased, indicating strong end - demand [1] - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September 2025 and accelerate rate cuts in 2026 [1] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand [1] - China's PMI production index continued to expand, and the new order index resumed expansion in June [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition is expected to boost listed company performance [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany is large - scale arming with a 30% military expansion [1]

v天华期货有限公司 煤焦数据快讯-2025年6月原煤产量数据 7月15日 2020-2025年中国原煤月度产量(亿吨) 2020-2025年中国原煤月度累计产量(亿吨) 47.6 50. 0 9.00 45. 0 7.7 8.00 40. 0 7.00 35. 0 6.00 30. 0 24.0 5.00 25. 0 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 20. 0 4. 00 15. 0 3.00 10. 0 2. 00 5.0 1. 00 0. 0 0. 00 5月 7月 11月 1-2月 3月 4月 6月 8月 9月 10月 12月 =2022年 ■2023年 ■2024年 ■2025年 2021年 2020年 ■2023年 ■2024年 ■2021年 2020年 =2022年 ■2025年 统计局7月15日数据显示，6月份原煤生产平稳增长。6月期上工业原煤产量：2亿吨，同比增长3.0%。增速比5月份放缓1.2个百分点，日均产量140万吨。 1-6月份,规上工业原煤产量24.0亿吨,同比增长5.4%。 播林大华0351团队点评：6月原煤产量4.2亿吨是历史申月最高产量，1-6月累计原煤产量24.0亿吨也是历史 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The relaxation of port inspections is expected to increase export demand. However, agricultural demand in July is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. In the short term, the price will oscillate within the range of 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton, and long positions should be held cautiously [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 12 yuan to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1840 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 1025 lots to 193,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 708 lots to 215,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 198,600 tons, 1,200 tons less than the previous working day and 29,100 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 85.79%, 7.52 percentage points higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 967,700 tons, 50,800 tons less than last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. The urea port inventory is 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 29.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, and the operating rate of melamine is 62.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - Policy: To facilitate the self - regulated export of urea by circulation enterprises, the association has coordinated with relevant departments to open a port legal inspection channel. Three state - owned fertilizer trading enterprises will be the execution subjects for the self - regulated export port legal inspection of urea [1] - Tender: The RCF urea import tender received a total of 3.0809 million tons of supplies from 21 suppliers. Only 405,000 tons of supplies were below the CIF price of $500/ton [1] Market Logic - With the relaxation of port inspections, export demand is expected to increase. But in July, agricultural demand is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. Upstream factories are destocking this week, and the Indian tender results continue to be favorable for exports. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Long positions should be held cautiously [1]

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about coal and lignite import data in June 2025 and related market analysis [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The decline in coal prices is mainly due to domestic trade pressure, and imported coal is in a following state. After the price of coking coal stabilizes, it rebounds. The situation of month - on - month import reduction is expected to ease in July, but the annual coal import volume will decrease. The static annualized coal import volume in 2025 is only 440 million tons, a significant reduction compared to last year's 640 million tons. Whether it can return to the pre - pandemic soft quota range of 300 million tons requires more policy guidance [2] Group 4: Data Summary - In June 2025, China imported 3007000 tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 3003000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 8.3%. From January to June, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 22170200 tons, a year - on - year decline of 11.1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The signing of memorandums between BYD and CATL, two leading lithium - ion battery companies, and BHP has led to a significant rise in the lithium - ion battery sector [4][5]. - The cooperation establishes the first - mover advantage of CATL and BYD in the industrial battery field, and expands the application scenarios of new - energy lithium - ion batteries, driving the expected future demand growth and promoting the development of lithium - ion battery technology [5]. - Under recent positive stimuli, lithium carbonate is oscillating strongly in the range of 65,000 - 68,000 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cooperation Details - BYD's wholly - owned subsidiary FDB and BHP will jointly research and explore power battery system solutions and supporting flash - charging infrastructure for heavy - duty mining equipment and locomotives, and explore the use of BYD commercial and light vehicles in BHP's mines to promote the diesel replacement technology process [4]. - CATL and BHP will cooperate in areas such as electrification of mining equipment, construction of fast - charging infrastructure, energy storage, and battery recycling to promote the electrification transformation of mine operations [4]. Market Performance - Lithium - ion battery stocks have hit the daily limit, and the sentiment has driven up lithium carbonate futures. As of the time of writing, the main contract price of lithium carbonate is 66,780 yuan per ton, with an intraday high of 68,360 yuan per ton [5]. Market Scale Forecast - According to BloombergNEF, the global market size of electrified mining equipment is expected to reach $28 billion by 2030 [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [3] - Egg: Interval [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the spot market is generally weak and stable; in the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to gradually tighten and the price center will move upward; in the long term, policy grain sources and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the pig price may fluctuate; in the medium term, the supply is expected to increase and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously; in the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the egg price stops falling and stabilizes; in the medium term, it may rebound; in the long term, if the breeding profit turns positive, the supply pressure may reappear and the price may fall [3]. Content Summaries by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: Last Friday night, the corn futures continued to be weak. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 1.25% to 2283 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: As of the end of the 28th week of 2025, Guangzhou port's grain inventory was 1.75 million tons; as of July 11, the four northern ports' corn inventory was about 2.56 million tons, and the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3350 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 30 yuan/ton; on July 11, the auction of imported genetically - modified corn had a 49% transaction rate [1]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: Imported corn auctions continue with a lower transaction rate, and the overall bullish expectation in the spot market weakens. Medium - term: Imported grains and substitutes are expected to decrease, and the supply pattern will gradually tighten. Long - term: Policy grain sources and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term: Interval operation; medium - term: Go long at low levels; short - term: Under pressure, the support for the 2509 contract moves down to 2260 - 2280 [1]. Pig - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the main pig futures contract fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.1% to 14345 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.04% to 13645 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the national average pig price was 14.64 yuan/kg; in May 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million; on July 11, the fat - standard price difference was 0.11 yuan/jin; on July 10, the weekly average slaughter weight was 124.74 kg; on July 11, the pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 447 lots [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: Support and pressure coexist, and the pig price may fluctuate. Medium - term: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term: The production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term: Go short; medium - term: Interval operation; short - term: Try to break through the upper pressure. Pay attention to the band short - selling opportunities after the price reaches the pressure level. The pressure for the 2509 contract is 14400 - 14600, and for the 2511 contract is 13800 [3]. Egg - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the egg futures fluctuated. The JD2508 contract fell 0.15% to 3442 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract rose 0.22% to 3580 yuan/500kg [3]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs rose to 2.58 yuan/jin; on the 11th, the average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased; on the 11th, the average price of old hens rose to 4.7 yuan/jin; in June, the number of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the estimated number in July is 1.352 billion [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: The egg price stops falling and stabilizes. Medium - term: It may rebound in August - September. Long - term: If the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The JD2508 contract operates in a wide range, with support at 3400 - 3420 and pressure at 3580 - 3600. The JD2509 contract adopts a short - selling strategy, with short - term pressure at 3650 - 3680 and support at 3500 - 3550. If the culling in the third quarter is less than expected, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [3].