研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 104 元至 6022 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6080 元/吨 （+95），华南瓶片价格 6130 元/吨（+100）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 3572 手至 5.66 万手，空头持仓减少 2831 手至 6.09 万手。 【重要资讯】 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | | | | | 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 | | | | | 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 | | | | | 出口量 586.5 万吨。 | | 能源与化 | 瓶片 | 震荡 | 3、因西方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, it is recommended to short - term go long and wait for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, it is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the vegetable oil sector showed an overall strong trend. The large - scale exit of short positions in soybean oil boosted its price. Palm oil was still under pressure at the 20 - day moving average, and the rebound of rapeseed oil weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,836 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 10,112 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - The biodiesel policy may be favorable. The Trump administration may make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. From January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon [1] - Indian buyers have locked in a large - scale purchase of 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil from April to July 2026 [1] - From December 1 - 20, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 6.26% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.17% month - on - month [1] - From December 1 - 25, the palm oil export volume in Malaysia was 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [1] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released the total biodiesel allocation for 2026 as 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 road test was launched in December 2025, with the mandatory addition plan expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: After Christmas, US soybean oil opened higher and closed lower, but the overall center of gravity moved up and was still in a rebound. Domestic: For soybean oil, the factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the oil mill's crushing volume and operating rate remained high. For palm oil, the Malaysian market opened and closed higher. The strong overseas vegetable oil market is expected to boost the domestic market. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders plan to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquire about crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract also followed the upward trend [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New positions in vegetable oils should be short - term long, and a long - term short - selling mindset should be maintained. Do not engage in long - term trading during the New Year's Day holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 8,400 and a support level of 7,400 [2] - Arbitrage: None Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the customs rumors led to an increase in spot market transactions, boosting the futures market. The main bean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6,453 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting area and increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres [2] - StoneX reported that China has purchased more than 8 million tons of US soybeans, moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2] - As of December 11, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 97% complete, higher than 94% a week ago [2] - StoneX predicts that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [3] - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [3] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) expects the soybean export volume in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.33 million tons [3] - S&P Global Research Report states that in 2026, the US soybean market will face a decline in both output and exports, while Brazil's soybean harvest may prompt China to seek more Brazilian supplies [3] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.646 million tons, a decrease of 409,000 tons compared to last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.095 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [3] - On December 24, there were rumors that the customs inspection procedures would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: The price of US soybeans rebounded after Christmas. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and some enterprises continued to raise prices after the market closed. Traders replenish goods as needed, waiting for the shutdown arrangement of oil mills in January. The terminal has pre - holiday stocking demand but is not willing to chase high prices. The market is concerned about whether it can break through the half - year line pressure level under the drive of the rise in bean meal. In the spot market, terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with general trading volume, and prices fluctuate with the futures market, and the basis quotation shows a narrow - range adjustment [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level. New selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 2,858 and a support level of 2,660 [3] - Arbitrage: None

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook in the macro and financial sector is (weakening) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is weakening as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and is past its peak [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Trump ordered an air strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, escalating US tensions with the largest economy in West Africa, and the move is related to global energy pattern changes and strategic mineral supply - chain competition [1] - The US economy shows a "K - shaped divide", with large enterprises profiting from the AI wave while small businesses face difficulties due to inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade, exacerbating employment and social inequality [1] - Large tech companies are moving over $120 billion in data - center spending off their balance sheets via SPVs, raising concerns about financial risks in AI investment [1] - Mark Strouse from JPMorgan believes that in 2025, investors only need AI exposure, but in 2026, actual deals and order accumulation are required [1] - A new La Nina is forming, the fifth in the past six years, which will disrupt the global weather system and pose risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Jim Rickards predicts that factors driving the metal market up will continue next year, with gold possibly reaching $10,000 and silver $200 [1] - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the one - year silver swap spread at - 7.18%, showing a shortage of physical silver [1] - Fujitsu will join a project led by SoftBank to develop next - generation memory for AI and supercomputers, aiming to revive Japan's memory production technology [1] Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs believes global stocks are in the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with a 15% total return (including dividends) in 2026 [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to pre - 2008 financial crisis signals [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to boost its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a growing K - shaped divide among US consumers [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun thinks China will win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日 星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五两市主要指数冲高后，午盘出现剧烈波动，但无碍上行趋势，商业航天板块继 | | | | | 续上涨。两市成交额 2.16 万亿元，温和放量。中证 500 指数收 7458 点，涨 48 点， | | | | | 涨幅 0.65%；中证 1000 指数收 7605 点，涨 26 点，涨幅 0.35%；沪深 300 指数收 4657 | | | | | 点，涨 14 点，涨幅 0.32%；上证 50 指数收 3045 点，涨 12 点，涨幅 0.41%。行业 | | | | | 与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是矿业 ETF、有色金属 ETF、卫星 ...

联系方式：0371-65617380 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货涨势延续，截至夜盘收盘2603合约涨幅1%，收于2230元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，截至12月26日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约180万吨 | | | | | 。北方港口到货量相对一般，库存同比仍处于历史偏低水平；广东港口玉米库存56 | | | | | 万吨，内贸玉米日均出货在3.3万吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第52周末，广州港口谷物库存量为 | | | | | 149.2万吨，环比增加15.57%，同比下降48.34%。其中：玉米库存量为65.8万吨，环 | | | | | 比增加31.08%，同比下降5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is turning offensive, and an upward market is expected to start before New Year's Day [65]. - China's stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation-driven' to 'profit-driven', with profit realization and moderate valuation expansion as the core drivers of returns [20]. - Global funds are re - investing in China's stock market, and the technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to layout AI [20]. Summary by Related Contents Market and Index Information - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 Index has the highest 'technology content' and is approaching its previous high [11]. - Institutional funds entered the market on a large scale through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3950 points [14]. - As of December 19, the total scale of listed ETFs in the entire market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 56% [20]. - The trading strategy for stock index futures is to turn offensive and opportunistically establish long positions in stock index futures mainly based on growth - type indices [21]. - The trading strategy for stock index options is to turn offensive and opportunistically open call options on the CSI 1000 Index [22]. Economic Data in China - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, and the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month [23]. - The margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, reaching a new high, and 2.38 million new A - share accounts were opened in November [25]. - China's export value in November was 330.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.9%, indicating that exports still have resilience [28]. - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, showing a stall in manufacturing investment [31]. - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a stall in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [34]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 31.3%, hitting a new low [37]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [40]. Economic Data in the United States - The US core CPI in November was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in a week was 224,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [46]. - In November, the newly - added ADP employment in the US showed negative growth, and the number of active corporate lay - offs increased rapidly [49]. - In October, the total retail and food sales in the US had zero month - on - month growth, indicating a weakening of US consumption [52]. - In September, both the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of US capital goods import value decreased rapidly, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [55]. - In November, the ISM manufacturing PMI price index continued to expand, and the service PMI price index still expanded rapidly, indicating an acceleration of inflation in the US [58]. Situation in Japan - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds soared above 2.0%. The large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US bonds and stocks [61][62]. Industry - Specific Events - On December 6, LandSpace Technology verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket [7]. - The US and China are in a fierce space infrastructure competition, and the commercial space industry has entered a high - growth phase led by national will [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Chinese equity assets are expected to initiate a spring market. Factors include the Fed's monthly purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds, intense space infrastructure competition between China and the US, institutional funds entering the market through A500ETF, the approaching of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices to previous highs, the seasonal pattern of the Chinese stock market, the end of the A - share sideways movement, the high "science content" of the CSI 500 index, and the accelerating appreciation of the RMB [37]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the global stock market has entered the "optimistic stage" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market, with a total return rate of 15% including dividends [4]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, started buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet [4][5]. - Trump stated that the next Fed chairman must believe in "substantial interest rate cuts" [4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the current decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [4]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusted its economic relations with China, and aimed to revitalize its economic autonomy [4]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified. High - income consumers' spending remains resilient, while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [4]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.0% [4]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists are worried that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [4][11]. - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [4]. - The US November core CPI was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [8]. - The US weekly initial jobless claims were 224,000 [11]. - The US employment outlook declined. The number of new ADP jobs in November was negative, and the number of active corporate layoffs increased rapidly [14]. - The total retail and food sales in the US in October showed zero month - on - month growth, indicating weakening consumption [17]. - The US capital goods import amount in September decreased rapidly both year - on - year and month - on - month, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [20]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index continued to contract in November [23]. - The US manufacturing PMI price index and service PMI price index continued to expand in November, indicating accelerating inflation [26]. - The US PPI commodity month - on - month growth rate in September was 0.9%. Coupled with weakening consumption and declining employment, the US economy is slipping into stagflation [29]. - The eurozone manufacturing PMI contracted again in November, and the eurozone economy was greatly impacted by US counter - tariffs [32]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the rise in the yield of Japanese government bonds will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [34]. Asset Allocation - The Fed's purchase of short - term bonds is beneficial to Chinese equity assets [37]. - The space infrastructure competition between China and the US has led to a high - growth period in commercial space, and satellite ETFs have risen strongly [37][38]. - Some institutions have started spring layout in advance, and institutional funds have entered the market through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3,950 points [37][45]. - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are close to previous highs and are expected to reach new highs after New Year's Day [37]. - The Chinese stock market has a seasonal pattern, and usually starts a spring offensive around the Spring Festival [37]. - The A - share market has been sideways for 4 months since late August and is expected to start a new market [37][48]. - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 index has the highest "science content" and is expected to break through previous highs [37][51]. - The accelerating appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the influx of international capital into China [37][54]. Space Infrastructure - Blue Arrow Aerospace verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket on December 6 [41].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2602 | 97680 | 2.8 | 3%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 2.82%。 | CU2603 | 97820 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、12 | 月 | 日，上交所官网公告，江西铜业（600362.SH）正式要约收购索尔黄金（S | 25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | olGold，伦交所代码 | SOLG.L），该要约估值约 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector is bullish [2] Core View - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise. The expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year stimulate the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined. Overall, a bullish view is maintained on Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term correction risks should be alerted [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - ICE March contract settlement price rose 23 points, May contract was at 65.49 (up 29 points), July contract was at 66.58 (up 31 points), with a trading volume of about 26,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 452,688 lots, and the open interest was 1,132,769 lots. The settlement prices were 14,255 yuan/ton for January, 14,215 yuan/ton for May, and 14,380 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from October (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease from the same period last year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan's cumulative cotton imports were about 6,692 tons, a 32.5% decrease from the previous year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to December 18, the United States graded and inspected 19.93 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 242.43 million tons, with 82.7% of lint meeting the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. The CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons, with a trading volume of 867 tons on the day. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise due to the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year, which stimulates the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, and partially take profits on the long futures positions [2]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 圣诞节 COMEX 贵金属休市。沪金收涨 1.07%报 1019.6 元/克，沪银涨 5.50%报 18131 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 24 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.71 吨，持仓量为 1068.27 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.4 吨，当前持仓量为 16446.97 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持 利率不变的概率为 84.5%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点 ...