Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (bullish) [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend. China strengthens its domestic cycle, Asian exports are strong, and the terminal demand is considered strong. Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September 2025 and accelerate rate - cuts in 2026. China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition is expected to boost listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers [1] Summary by Related Information AI Investment - AI investment covers three major directions: computing power, data, and downstream applications. The global data center construction in computing power is booming, and in application fields such as AI agents, intelligent driving, and intelligent terminals, China has many globally competitive enterprises [1] Eurozone Government Bonds - As the US dollar's safe - haven status is questioned, central banks around the world are increasing their allocation of eurozone government bonds, and the subscription ratio in eurozone government bond issuance has risen from 16% last year to 20% so far this year [1] Central Bank Independence - After JPMorgan Chase's Dimon took the lead, executives from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup also voiced their support for the central bank's independent operation without White House intervention [1] Japanese Stock Market - With the upcoming Japanese election, Japan's $6.8 trillion stock market faces a "reckoning" moment. Polls suggest that the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru may lose its majority in the Senate election this weekend [1] Stablecoin Business - JPMorgan Chase's CEO Dimon and Citigroup's CEO Fraser said they will participate in the stablecoin business, and JPMorgan needs to accept stablecoins to keep up with competitors [1] Tariffs and Inflation - New York Fed President Williams expects tariffs to add about one percentage point to inflation from the second half of 2025 to 2026, although the current comprehensive data shows only a relatively limited impact of tariffs [1] xAI's Expansion - Musk's xAI is looking to expand its infrastructure in the Middle East to power its computing - intensive AI models with the region's cheap energy, abundant capital, and political goodwill [1] Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump plans to impose tariffs slightly higher than 10% on at least 100 countries, including those in Africa and the Caribbean [1] Economic Data - The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index in June 2025 resumed expansion. Germany's industrial output in May 2025 increased by 1.2% month - on - month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The corn market has different trends in the short, medium, and long term. Short - term prices may be under pressure but could stabilize, medium - term prices are expected to be stronger, and long - term prices are limited by policy and substitution factors [2]. - The pig market is likely to have a weak shock in the short term, face challenges in rising in the medium term, and maintain high production capacity in the long term [4]. - The egg market may strengthen in the short term, have a potential rebound in the medium term, and face supply pressure in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Market Conditions**: The night - session of the previous day's corn futures showed a slightly stronger trend, with the 2509 contract rising 0.61% to 2300 yuan/ton. The spot market in the Northeast was weakly stable, while that in North China rose slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The purchase price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2300 - 2310 yuan/ton, and the price at Shekou Port remained unchanged at 2440 yuan/ton. The mainstream purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast remained unchanged at 2243 yuan/ton, and that in North China rose 7 yuan/ton to 2456 yuan/ton. As of July 17, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 450 to 184,971, and the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong remained at 50 yuan/ton. Today, CGS will organize an auction of 294,976 tons of imported corn [2]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the continuous import corn auction weakens the bullish sentiment, but the anti - price - decline sentiment and the positive and expanding wheat - corn price difference may support the price. In the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to tighten, but the price increase is limited. In the long term, policy grain supply and wheat substitution will limit the price increase [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term interval operation; medium - term low - buying; short - term downward pressure. Hold long positions for the 2509 contract, with the first pressure level at 2310 and the next at 2340 if it breaks through [2]. Pig - **Market Conditions**: The previous day's main pig futures contracts fluctuated narrowly, with the LH2509 contract falling 0.28% to 14,060 yuan/ton and the LH2511 contract falling 0.07% to 13,535 yuan/ton [4]. - **Important Information**: On the 17th, the national average pig price was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg. The number of fertile sows in June 2025 was 40.43 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The fat - standard price difference on July 17 was 0.13 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin. The weekly average slaughter weight was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg. The number of futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 444 [4]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the pig price may maintain a weak shock. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously. In the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term short - selling; medium - term interval operation; short - term decline. For the 2509 contract, the pressure is at 14,400 - 14,600, and the support is at 13,870 - 14,000. For the 2511 contract, the pressure is at 13,800, and the support is at 13,400 [4]. Egg - **Market Conditions**: The previous day's egg futures fluctuated weakly, with the JD2509 contract falling 0.28% to 3595 yuan/500kg [4]. - **Important Information**: The previous day's egg price mainly rose steadily, with the main - producing area average price rising 0.13 yuan/jin to 2.89 yuan/jin and the main - selling area average price rising 0.1 yuan/jin to 3.3 yuan/jin. The average production - link inventory was 0.93 days, down 0.02 days, and the circulation - link inventory remained at 1.04 days. The average price of old hens was 5.06 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin. The number of laying hens in June was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 6.77%. In the first half of the year, the national poultry slaughter was 8.14 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, and the poultry egg production was 17.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [4]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the egg price may strengthen but is difficult to rise sharply. In the medium term, there may be a rebound in August - September, but the high point is not overly optimistic. In the long term, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 08 contract operates in a wide range, with the upper pressure at 3580 - 3600 and the lower support at 3400 - 3420. The 09 contract follows the short - long and long - short strategy, with the short - term pressure at 3650 - 3680 and the support at 3500 - 3550. If the elimination in the third quarter is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [5].

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 | | | --- | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2509 期价上涨 9 元至 1743 元/吨，华中主流地 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 | CJ509 | 合约收盘价 | 9390 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.37%。CJ601 | 合约收盘价 | 10380 | 元/吨， | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日涨幅 | 0.14%。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.本周 | 36 | 家样本点物理库存在 | 10320 | 吨，环比减少 | 110 | 吨。 | 2.河北市场一级批发价格 | 8.6 | 元/公斤，日环比持平。广东一级批发价格 | 9.8 | 元/公 | | | 斤，日环比持平。 | 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆 | 7 | 车，日环比+2 | 车。 | | | | | | | | | | 4.昨日郑商所红枣仓单共计 | 8972 | 张，环比-56 | 张。 | 宽 | 幅 | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 5.昨日 | CJ9 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils rose and continued to surge in the night session. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. In June 2025, China's air-conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative output from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. In June, the national refrigerator output was 9.047 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; the cumulative output from January to June was 50.642 million units, remaining flat year-on-year. In June, the national washing machine output was 9.508 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; the cumulative output from January to June was 58.604 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In June, the national color TV output was 16.252 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%; the cumulative output from January to June was 91.871 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The Party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal, constructing a new real - estate development model, and promoting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. This week, the supply of five major steel products was 868,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,530 tons or 0.5%; the total inventory was 1.33766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,920 tons or 0.1%; the apparent consumption was 870,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. This week, rebar output and apparent demand decreased while inventory increased; hot - rolled coil output and inventory decreased while apparent demand increased. The pressure level for rebar is 3,200, and the important support level is 3,000. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3,130, and the pressure level is 3,400. It is difficult for rebar to break through 3,200 in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and continued to surge in the night session [1] Important Information - From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [1] - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%; the cumulative output from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [1] - In June, the national refrigerator output was 9.047 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the cumulative output from January to June was 50.642 million units, remaining flat year - on - year [1] - In June, the national washing machine output was 9.508 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; the cumulative output from January to June was 58.604 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [1] - In June, the national color TV output was 16.252 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%; the cumulative output from January to June was 91.871 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [1] - The Party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of urban renewal, constructing a new real - estate development model, and promoting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses [1] Market Data - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 868,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,530 tons or 0.5% [1] - The total inventory was 1.33766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,920 tons or 0.1% [1] - The apparent consumption was 870,110 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [1] Market Logic - This week, rebar output and apparent demand decreased while inventory increased; hot - rolled coil output and inventory decreased while apparent demand increased [1] - The pressure level for rebar is 3,200, and the important support level is 3,000. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3,130, and the pressure level is 3,400 [1] Trading Strategy - It is difficult for rebar to break through 3,200 in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The report is from Green Grand Futures Research Institute, dated July 18, 2025 [1] - The researcher is Ji Xiaoyun with qualification F3066027 and trading consultation qualification Z0011402, contact number 010 - 56711796 [1]

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格上涨 70 元至 5964 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2509 持仓量为 3.69 万手，持仓-922 手。现货市场，华东市场水瓶级瓶片价 格稳上涨 10 元至 5935 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格上涨 10 元在 6010 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.7 万吨，较上周减少 2.72 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 71.5%，较上周下降 5.9%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5671 元，下降 0.9%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-214 元/吨，环比增加 86 元/吨。 | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 强 至 | 2、需求方面，2025 年 5 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 61.9 万吨，较上月增加 3.82 万吨。 2025 年累计出口量 269.55 万吨。 3、市场对中东局势的不稳定性仍有担忧，叠加美国传统燃油旺季延续，国际油价上 涨。 ...

Group 1: Company - Specific Information - The wholly - owned subsidiary of Zangge Mining Co., Ltd., Golmud Zangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., received a notice on July 16, 2025, to immediately stop lithium resource development and actively rectify, and apply for resumption of production after completing legal procedures [1][3] - After receiving the notice, Zangge Lithium Industry has stopped production as required and is actively promoting the handling of lithium resource mining procedures [2] - In 2025, Zangge Lithium Industry planned to produce and sell 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate. In the first half of the year, it was expected to produce 5,350 tons and sell 4,470 tons, with an expected net profit of 4.9 million yuan, which has a small impact on the company's operating performance [3][4] Group 2: Industry - Specific Information - The new version of the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export by China" restricts the export of battery technology and lithium ore lithium extraction technology, increasing the threshold for overseas lithium salt production technology and the expansion time cycle [4] - In 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 701,000 tons. The suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry has a small impact on the annual lithium carbonate production [4] - The government will strictly supervise the development procedures and processes of lithium resources, and future new production capacity of salt lakes may be restricted. In the short - term, without other emergencies, the lithium carbonate price will run strongly between 66,000 - 69,000 yuan, and short - term operations are recommended [4]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 14 元/吨至 2362 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 货价格下跌 3 元/吨至 2382 元/吨。多头持仓减少 9621 手至 36.86 万手，空头持仓 减少 823 手至 46.51 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 84.7%，环比下跌 3.8%。海外甲醇开工率 71.13%， 环比上涨 7.1%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 79.02 万吨，较上一期数据增加 7.13 万吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 6.35 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 0.78 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 35.23 万吨，较上期减少 0.46 万吨，环比跌 1.28%。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 6.3 万吨，环比增加 2.6 万吨。样本企业订单待发 ...

研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡走弱，截止夜盘收盘2509合约跌幅0.61%，收 | | | | | 于2280元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日现货市场弱稳为主。中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日锦州港收购价（15%水/ | | | | | 容重680-720）2310-2320元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2440元/ | | | | | 吨，较前一日持平。东北深加工企业主流收购价2243元/吨，较前一日跌7元/吨；华 | | | | | 北地区深加工企业昨日主流收购价2449元/吨， 较前一日跌2元/吨。 | | | | | 2、截至7月16日，玉米期货仓单减少390手，共计185421手。 | | | | | 3、WIND数据显示，截至7月16日山东地区小麦-玉米价差为50元/吨，较前一 ...