更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 棉花 | 偏多 | 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the overall rebound strength has decreased, and it is likely to be mainly in a weak oscillation. It is recommended for intraday trading with a long - term bearish mindset [1][3]. - For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, there is a low - level rebound, and one should wait for the end of the rebound to find new selling points [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Review - On December 23, the departure of a large number of short - sellers drove the overall rebound of the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Soybean oil: The Y2605 contract closed at 7772 yuan/ton, with a daily - closing - price increase of 0% and a daily reduction of 1716 lots; the Y2609 contract closed at 7718 yuan/ton, with a 0.31% increase and a reduction of 648 lots [1]. - Palm oil: The P2605 contract closed at 8486 yuan/ton, with a 0.86% increase and an increase of 3972 lots; the P2609 contract closed at 8372 yuan/ton, with a 0.89% increase and an increase of 759 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The OI2605 contract closed at 8847 yuan/ton, with a 0.19% decrease and an increase of 4135 lots; the OI2609 contract closed at 8848 yuan/ton, with a 0.23% decrease and an increase of 114 lots [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on December 23 due to strong US economic growth and potential supply disruptions. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 37 cents or 0.64%, settling at $58.38 per barrel [1]. - As of the end of November, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.95% from the end of October and 39.58% year - on - year. The EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 RVO next year, which pressured the soybean oil market [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 6.26% and the OER down 0.17% [1]. - Indonesia's B50 implementation has been postponed to the second half of 2026 [1]. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase from November 1 - 20. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - In October, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.8 million tons, a nearly 3% decline from the same period last year. Its crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than the previous month's 2.59 million tons [1]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a 0.77% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.30% year - on - year increase [1][3]. Market Logic - Externally, supply concerns and a strong US economy drove the rebound of crude oil, but poor export expectations and the delay of the US biofuel policy pressured US soybean oil. For Malaysian palm oil, despite the rise in international crude oil, overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and inactive purchases from major consuming countries led to a lack of rebound momentum [3]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating short - term supply shortages, but high oil - mill crushing volumes and operating rates coexisted with cautious purchasing by traders. For palm oil, attention should be paid to whether the rebound of Malaysian palm oil can continue. Domestic palm oil inventory increased, and technically, the 05 contract faced pressure from the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, the inventory at East China ports continued to decline, and the spot price fluctuated with the market, with the basis showing a narrow - range adjustment [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Exit short - term long positions in vegetable oils, conduct intraday trading for new orders, and maintain a long - term bearish mindset. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [3]. - Arbitrage: None available [3]. Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On December 23, the double - meal futures were boosted by the possible conversion of Cofco auctions into targeted sales. The closing prices and changes of various contracts are as follows: - Bean meal: The M2605 contract closed with a 0.15% increase and an increase of 17,263 lots; the M2609 contract closed with a 0.21% increase and an increase of 5,965 lots [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The RM2605 contract closed with a 0.51% increase and an increase of 15,829 lots; the RM2609 contract closed with a 0.42% increase and an increase of 1,550 lots [3]. Important Information - The USDA estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted a 4% increase in US soybean planting in 2026, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3]. - As of December 11, 97% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting was completed, up from 94% a week ago. The stable rainfall was beneficial for the final planting and growth [3][4]. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons [4]. - As of December 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [4]. - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [4]. - US farmers welcomed the $12 billion agricultural aid plan but believed it was far from enough to cover the losses of $34 - 44 billion this year [4]. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 109,200 tons, a 1.38% increase from last week; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a 28.36% decrease from last week. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from last week [3][4]. - On December 19, the planned auction of imported soybeans by Cofco was 550,143.732 tons, with an actual transaction of 179,701.674 tons, a transaction rate of 32.66%, and an average transaction price of 3751 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Externally, the strengthening of international crude oil and the depreciation of the US dollar drove US soybeans to stop falling and stabilize. Domestically, most oil - mill fixed - price quotes remained stable, with individual increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Under high - inventory pressure, traders replenished stocks in a rolling manner, and feed mills maintained safety stocks and made rigid purchases. For rapeseed meal, the supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China was relatively tight, so the basis quotes rose slightly, and it is expected to have strong support below and fluctuate within a range in the short term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Wait for the end of the low - level rebound of bean meal and rapeseed meal to find new selling points. Provide support and resistance levels for various contracts [4][5]. - Arbitrage: None available [5].

| 6、高盛认为中国 AI 模型与美国顶尖模型的差距已缩窄至 3-6 个月。此外研报认为 | | --- | | 字节跳动豆包手机助手等 AI 助手的推出，可能预示着移动应用流量格局的根本性 | | 改变。预计中国头部云服务商 2026 年资本开支将进一步攀升至 5000 亿元。 | | 7、字节跳动初步计划的 2026 年资本支出达 1600 亿元人民币，较今年的 1500 亿元 | | 有所增长。投资重点将集中在 AI 基础设施建设上，其中约一半资金将用于采购先 | | 进芯片以开发 AI 模型和应用。 | | 8、国际半导体产业协会（SEMI）日前发布报告显示，2025 年全球原始设备制造商 | | （OEM）的半导体制造设备总销售额预计达 1330 亿美元，同比增长 13.7%，创历史 | | 新高。预计 2026 年和 2027 年分别达到 1450 亿美元和 1560 亿美元。 | | 9、全国机器人租赁生态峰会暨"擎天租"平台发布会在上海举行。会上，智元机 | | 器人发布机器人租赁平台"擎天租"，标志着具身智能行业将向生态化、服务化的 | | 租赁模式深度演进。 | | 10、GGII（高工产 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、数据显示，以美元计价的 MSCI 亚太地区股票指数，今年含股息的回报率高达 | | | | | 27%。这也是自 2020 年以来，亚太股市首次在一年内同时跑赢欧美基准指数。金融 | | | | | 市场的复苏反映出，亚洲对寻求更快增长的投资者吸引力正日益增强。 | | | | | 2、高盛分析师认为，中国股市周期正从'预期驱动'转向'盈利驱动'，在这一 | | | | | 阶段，盈利兑现与估值温和扩张将成为推动回报的核心动力。报告指出，中国企业 | | | | | 盈利明年可能增长 14%，2027 年或继续增长 12%；而估值扩张程度或在 10%左右。 | | | | | 3、投行观点认为，现实中美联储已为财政融资兜底，财政与货币边界趋于消失， | | | | | 贝森特正成为事实上的"影子联储主席"。若这一模式延续，2026 年名义上的美联 | | | | | 储主席或将靠边站，真正的"老板"可能是财政部。 | | | | | 4、国际半导体产业协会（SEM ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The customs clearance vehicles at the 288 Port have been operating at a high level. As of December 22, the average daily customs clearance vehicles in December were 1,482, a 9.83% increase from the average daily vehicles in November (1,349), and it is at the highest monthly average customs clearance level of the year and continues to climb [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Customs Clearance Data - On December 23, there is VIP customer data on the daily customs clearance data of the Ganqimaodu Port [1] - The table shows the customs clearance data of the 288 Port from December 4 - 22, 2025, including customs clearance vehicle numbers, AGV numbers, total customs clearance vehicles, changes, and short - haul freight rates (all short - haul freight rates are 90) [6] Graphical Data - There is a graph showing the daily customs clearance vehicles and monthly average customs clearance levels of the 288 Port, but specific data on the graph is difficult to accurately summarize [2] Data Source - The customs clearance data of the 288 Port is from Palm Coal and Coke, and is sorted out by the Green Grand Futures Research Institute [3]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约多数高开，早盘震荡下行，午后再下一城后横向波动，截至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.28%，10 | ...

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.13%报 4480.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.37%报 69.09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 1.60%报 1003.08 元/克，沪银涨 2.30%报 16126 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 12 月 22 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 12.02 吨，当前持仓量为 1064.56 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日增加 533.01 吨，为 2023 年 1 月以来的最大单日增幅，当前持仓量为 16599.2 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 偏 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1114.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.54%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1743.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.20%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1123.0，环比日盘收 盘上涨 1.67%；J2605 合约收于 1740.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.20%。 【重要资讯】 1、央行发布一次性信用修复政策有关安排，针对特定时期内、单笔金额在 1 万元以下 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 的小额个人逾期信息，将实施一次性信用修复，"免申即享"，信用卡、房贷、消费贷 等均可适用。 2、焦炭第三轮提降落地：自 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 时起，河北市场钢厂对焦炭采购价下 调，山东市场主流钢厂对焦炭采购价湿熄下调 50 元/吨，干熄下调 55 元/吨。 3、2025 年 12 月 22 日山西太原市华润联盛原相焦煤（A9.5 S0.45 V21 G85）竞拍，起 拍价 1465 元/吨，数量 0.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy is rated as (turning weak) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US makes a series of wrong policies and returns to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Precious metals soar, with spot gold above 4400, silver hitting a new high, and platinum breaking the $2000 mark for the first time in 16 years due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and geopolitical risks [1] - Wall Street expects high volatility in US stocks in 2026, and suggests a hedging strategy of going long on the Nasdaq 100 index volatility and short on the S&P 500 index volatility [1] - Dalio warns that the current market wealth based on unfulfilled expectations may lead to market adjustments or crises when converted to money [1] - The shipment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinets is expected to reach 55,000 units next year, a 129% year - on - year increase, driven by tech giants, and the next - generation Vera Rubin 200 platform will start shipping in Q4 next year [1] - The AI data center construction boom attracts various players, but there are concerns about AI bubbles due to project delays and contract terminations [1] - The US is promoting large - scale space militarization, with a $3.5 billion military satellite order issued [1] - Musk's net worth soars to $749 billion, becoming the first person to exceed $700 billion, due to a court decision on Tesla stock options [1] - The "stable return" myth for retail investors on Wall Street is broken, with BDC stocks of top institutions plummeting and bad loan rates rising [1] Global Economic Logic - Israel's potential attack on Iran causes gold prices to hit new highs, and the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points in December and buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to believe in "substantial rate cuts", and some traders are betting on a Q1 rate cut [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2] - The US releases a new National Security Strategy, adjusting economic relations with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide in the US, with high - income spending remaining resilient and low - income tightening belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rises to 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2] - JPMorgan estimates that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2]