Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inventory of methanol ports in China continued to accumulate this week, but there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after the price drops. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 64,900 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 25,100 tons. The inventory of methanol ports continued to accumulate this week, with 324,900 tons of explicit foreign vessels and 109,000 tons of non - explicit foreign vessels included in the cycle. Although the support for reverse flow weakened significantly, the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu continued well, and the inventory accumulated under the background of more unloading. The rigid demand in Zhejiang was stable, and the inventory also accumulated. The inventory in South China ports showed an increase. In Guangdong, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels for replenishment during the week, the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was acceptable, and the local inventory decreased. In Fujian, imported vessels arrived at the port intensively, and there was a small amount of domestic vessel replenishment. Under the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, the inventory continued to increase [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the issue of Venezuela. Trump said that the United States needs to fully obtain Venezuela's oil and other resources. If they do not comply with the regulations, the United States will launch a second strike against Venezuela [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market fluctuated within the day, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily level. In the short term, the inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is average, so there is a certain upward pressure. However, as time goes by, January should be a stage of slowdown in imports, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after the price drops. At present, the key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 【期现行情分析】 纯苯日内小幅震荡，上方压力依旧较大，整体仍然呈现供强需弱的状态，目 前仍然弱势对待。 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨，同比上升 56.09%。12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，不完全统计到 货约 3.95 万吨，提货约 1.25 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中，3 个库区上升，4 个库区持稳。 苯乙烯方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.23 万吨，较上周期减 0.65 万吨，幅度-4.68%。商品量库存在 7.73 万吨，较上周期 减 0.6 万吨，幅度-7.20%。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。 【宏观面分析】 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 特朗普：美国需要完全获取委内瑞拉的石油和其他资源。如果他们不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the increase in production suppress prices, but the continuous inventory reduction and relatively low inventory levels provide support. In January, the inventory accumulation cycle begins, and attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory accumulation inflection point in late January. The significant increase in raw material prices strengthens cost support. The real - estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside space, but anti - involution policies are expected to reduce production capacity, providing downside support. The report suggests a bullish approach and believes that the price is expected to continue to rise moderately [5]. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the rebar main contract increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, reaching 1,937,222 lots, and the open interest increased by 178,435 lots. The price rose strongly, breaking through the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with a low of 3110 yuan/ton, a high of 3192 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 123 yuan/ton to the spot price. As the futures price rose significantly and the spot price rose slightly, the basis narrowed [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week ending December 31, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons week - on - week to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.84% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.1%, up 0.87 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 8500 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, down 4400 tons year - on - year. The increase in production was due to improved profitability, reduced production cut motivation, and the resumption of some blast furnaces [3]. - Demand: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending December 31, the apparent consumption decreased by 22,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0044 million tons. Construction in the north stopped, and projects in the south were coming to an end. The apparent consumption decreased for two consecutive weeks. Traders lacked confidence in the future market, and the restocking pace was slow, mainly purchasing on demand. In the medium - to - long - term, demand was under pressure [3]. - Inventory: Inventory continued to decline. As of the week ending December 31, the total inventory decreased by 122,200 tons week - on - week to 4.2203 million tons, declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Social inventory was 2.8266 million tons, down 115,300 tons week - on - week, reaching a three - year low, and steel mill inventory was 1.3937 million tons, slightly down 6900 tons, also at a three - year low. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to occur 1 - 2 weeks before the Spring Festival [4]. - Macro: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to use policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity. It aimed to stabilize the real - estate market, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry. Macro expectations were moderately positive, but incremental demand was relatively limited [4]. - Cost: The significant increase in the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore provided strong cost support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, continuous inventory reduction, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy - supported demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, loose macro expectations, and significant increase in raw material prices [5]. - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slow inventory reduction, accelerated resumption of blast furnaces, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real - estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are both increasing. Last week's data showed that the increase in production was greater than the growth in demand, and the absolute level of inventory was relatively high, which had been digested by the market. Today's sharp rise in the market will drive a certain increase in spot prices and a warming of transactions. The warming of winter storage sentiment may stimulate a wave of demand. The cost side provides strong support, and the anti-involution policy also provides strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and buy on dips, expecting the price to continue to rise strongly [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents Market Review - Futures prices: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 103,802 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 943,506 lots, a significant increase compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,259 yuan, and the high was 3,338 yuan. It closed at 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%. It stood above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages [1] - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -42 yuan, indicating a slight premium of the futures over the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 31, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 109,700 tons to 3.0451 million tons. Production has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, iron water transfer from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance and increased resumption of production [3] - Demand side: As of December 31, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 37,300 tons to 3.1077 million tons. Demand still shows resilience, but future demand data needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 31, the total inventory decreased by 62,600 tons to 3.7096 million tons week-on-week. Social inventory decreased by 80,600 tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 18,000 tons. The inventory is still being depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed. The total inventory is at a five-year high, still exerting downward pressure on prices [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability [3][4] - External macro: The events in the United States and Venezuela may bring uncertainties [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Significant decline in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding expectations in steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, supported by macro - news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intra - day performance. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands had an upward - opening three - rail, indicating a short - term volatile and strong signal. The upper pressure was near the 60 - week moving average, and the support was near the 60/40 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 1.521 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,426 lots. The intra - day high was 1277, the low was 1188, and the closing price was 1271, up 89 yuan/ton (7.53%) from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: The price was stable. Some plant loads increased slightly, with few maintenance expectations. The industry supply remained high. Downstream demand was average, mostly replenishing on demand and with low - price transactions [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was - 21 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1, domestic soda ash production was 697,100 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons (2.07%) compared to the previous period. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 79.96%, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more increased by 0.11% [2] - Inventory: As of January 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5084 million tons, an increase of 100,100 tons (7.11%) from the previous period [2] - Demand: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises decreased by 5.87% compared to the previous period, and the overall shipment rate decreased by 4.21%. The downstream demand was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2] - Profit: As of January 1, the theoretical profit of the dual - alkali method was - 35.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.17% compared to the previous period. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 95.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.2% compared to the previous period. The cost - side fluctuated little [3][4] Main Logic Summary The soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the total output remains high. The rigid demand for soda ash has weakened, and inventory has increased. However, due to continuous losses and a warm macro - environment, there is some short - term support. The short - term price may maintain a volatile and strong trend [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：contango 结构下的溢价 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 棉花：近期棉花价格延续偏强走势。受新年度棉花种植面积减少，供应缩减 预期支撑，棉花继续上涨。棉纱市场则相对平静，纺企小幅涨价，下游新订单反 馈不积极，实际涨幅十分有限。目前下游织造环节存在去库压力，又逢年底，补 库并不积极。 由于上游涨价并未向下进行有效传导，价格上涨空间受到一定制约，不过商 品市场火热使得棉花仍然保持偏强走势，预估最近 1-2 周保持偏强走势。 白糖：印度马邦糖业委员会办公室近日发布报告显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，该邦已有 195 家糖厂开榨，较上榨季同期的 199 家减少 4 家； 共入榨甘蔗 6026.1 万吨，较上榨季同期的 4063 万吨增加 1963.1 万吨；产糖 532.27 万吨，平均产糖率 8.83%。经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3982 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算成本为 5057 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比， 配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利润为 1538 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算利润 为 463 元/吨。 --冠通 ...

1.2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开，会议强调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风险、稳定社会预期。 2.12月份全国建筑钢材生产企业共计26家企业进行了减产检修，较上月减少16家；影响建筑钢材产量259.21万吨，环比增加 28.74%。 早盘速递 2026/1/7 热点资讯 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | 1.50 | 2.89 | 2.89 | | | | 上证50 | 1.90 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | | 沪深300 | 1.55 | 3.47 | 3.47 | | | | 中证500 | 2.13 | 4.67 | 4.67 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.62 | 1.45 | 1.45 | | | | 恒生指数 | 1.38 | 4.21 | 4.21 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures price of methanol rose 3.1% intraday, with support at the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, there is pressure above. However, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of Iranian plants after gas restrictions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 25,100 tons. During the week, 324,900 tons of explicit foreign vessels and 109,000 tons of non - explicit foreign vessels were included. In Jiangsu, although the reverse flow support weakened significantly, the提货 at the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River continued well, and the inventory increased due to more unloading. In Zhejiang, the rigid demand was stable, and the inventory also increased. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly due to a small amount of imports and domestic vessels replenishment and good提货 at the mainstream storage areas, while in Fujian, the inventory continued to increase due to concentrated imports and a small amount of domestic vessels replenishment and rigid demand consumption [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the Venezuela issue. Trump said that the US needs to fully obtain Venezuela's oil and other resources, and if Venezuela does not comply with regulations, the US will launch a second strike against it [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures price of methanol rose 3.1% intraday, with support at the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart. There is short - term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, so there is pressure above. But imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of Iranian plants after gas restrictions [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 to December 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene at ports in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the issue of Venezuela. Trump stated that the US needs to fully acquire Venezuela's oil and other resources and threatened a second strike if Venezuela does not comply [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene showed a slight intraday fluctuation, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand, and should be treated weakly [3] - Styrene also showed a slight fluctuation. Pay attention to the pressure around the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. It is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate significantly in the near term. Given the uncertainties, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach and closely monitor the situation in Venezuela [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year [1]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable last week. The road asphalt operating rate remained at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and refinery shipments decreased. The national shipments decreased 3.22% to 263,100 tons week - on - week [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years. The US military attack on Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. The asphalt operating rate will remain low this week. The rigid demand in the north will further slow down, but the winter storage demand continues to be released. The overall demand in the south is average [1]. 3.2期现行情 - Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.35% to 3,144 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,129 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,184 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 14,755 to 80,682 lots [2]. 3.3基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,070 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 74 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.4基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, Zhongyou Gaofu stopped production for maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical switched production. The asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4]. - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to November 2025 was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025 [4]. - As of the week of January 2, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable. The road asphalt operating rate remained at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as that from January to October [4]. - As of the week of January 2, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% compared with the week of December 26 and was near the lowest level in recent years [4].