【冠通研究】 基本面中性偏弱，成材震荡为主 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 2 日 【策略分析】 基本面中性偏弱，成材震荡为主 今日黑色系震荡为主，成材收盘价格重心变动有限。成材基本面表现中性偏弱， 特别是螺纹需求显现出疲态，去库缓慢；热卷延续复产，但需求继续高位攀升， 库存去化态势较好。铁水回升幅度放缓，高炉集中复产期已经过去，后续复产高 炉较少，预计铁水继续攀升空间有限。我们认为当下材端需求预期偏弱，同时需 关注粗钢减产和钢材出口的消息扰动加剧，预计盘面震荡为主。 【期现行情】 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2505 开盘 3170 元/吨，收盘于 3166 元/吨，+10 元/吨， 涨跌幅+0.32%；热卷主力 2505 开盘 3368 元/吨，收盘于 3352 元/吨，+8 元/吨， 涨跌幅+0.24%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 658350 手，-25944 手，前二十名空头持仓为 763008 手，-35447 手，多减空减；热卷 HC2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 429709 手，-27902 手，前二十名空头持仓为 454738 ...

期货方面： 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 今日原油期货主力合约2505合约上涨0.58%至552.2元/吨，最低价在551.3元/吨，最高价在558.5 【冠通研究】 原油：冲高回落 制作日期：2025年4月2日 【策略分析】 近期原油多单持有 供应端，欧佩克+意外决定将在4月执行此前多次推迟的增产计划，每月将增加13.8桶/日左右的 石油产量。美国表示俄乌均同意在黑海确保航行安全，均同意制定措施落实俄乌能源设施停火，不 过俄罗斯表示黑海航行安全协议将在撤销部分制裁后生效。美国石油钻机数量上周减少2部，美国原 油产量3月21日当周环比增加0.1万桶/日至1357.4万桶/日，较12月上旬创下的历史最高位回落5.7万桶 /日。需求端，美国炼厂开工率上升0.1个百分点至87.0%，EIA数据显示美国原油库存减幅超预期，同 时成品油库存继续减少，只是减幅不及预期，整体油品库存继续减少。中国国内原油加工量3月以来 环比持续小幅下降。截至3月28日当周，国内原油加工量为1396.54万桶/日，同比下降4.61%，环比下 降0.86%。目前国内原油加工量低于202 ...

【冠通研究】 区间震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 2 日 【策略分析】 区间震荡 期货方面：铁矿石主力 I2505 合约高开后震荡，最终收盘于 791.5 元/吨，+8.5 元/吨，涨跌幅+1.09%。成交量 22.23 万手，持仓 33.71 万手，-18053 手，今日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 今日黑色系震荡为主，铁矿石高开后震荡，收盘价格小幅变动。铁矿石供应端压 力逐渐回升；铁水回升放缓，后续高炉复产减少，需求上方空间有限，港口库存 持续小幅回升，去化压力逐渐显现。成材需求恢复中，但是建材需求已显疲态， 见顶风险加大。我们认为短期需求良好仍对矿价形成支撑，但需关注的是产业链 上下游消息面扰动加大，预计短期铁矿石区间震荡为主。2505 合约运行区间参 考 750-810 元/吨。 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 1 【期货行情】 铁矿石 2505 小时 K 铁矿石 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 263267 手，+16481 手，前二十名空头持 仓为 262897 手，+18473 手，多增空增。 【基本面跟踪】 产业方面：外矿方面，3 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/04/02 隔夜夜盘市场走势 重要资讯 1. 国际油价小幅下跌, 美油 5 月合约跌 0.48%, 报 71.14 美元/桶。布油 6 月合 约跌 0.48%,报 74.41 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌,COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.06%报 3148.5 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货跌 0.7%报 34.37 美元/盎司。 3. 芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货主力合约集体收涨, 大豆期货涨 1.77% 报 1032.75 美分/蒲式耳;玉米期货涨 0.66%报 460.25 美分/蒲式耳,小麦期货 涨 0.56%报 540 美分/蒲式耳。 4. 伦敦基本金属多数收跌,LME 期铜跌 0.93%报 9692.5 美元/吨,LME 期锌跌 1.23%报 2816.5 美元/吨, LME 期镍跌 1.4%报 16170 美元/吨, LME 期铝跌 1.78% 报 2504.5 美元/吨,LME 期锡涨 3.41%报 37120 美元/吨,LME 期铅跌 1.11%报 2000 美元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to face downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, high Russian exports, trade wars, and economic growth concerns, but short - term long positions are recommended considering factors like strategic reserve purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][6] - For steel products, the short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly due to potential news of crude steel production cuts and steel exports [7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 due to supply disruptions, unmet demand during the peak season, and macro uncertainties [11] - It is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt in the near term considering supply and demand changes and geopolitical factors affecting crude oil [12][14] - For PP, the PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly due to supply and demand situations [15] - For plastic, it is recommended to short the plastic 05 basis at high levels as it is expected to decline [16][17] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level with limited room for further significant decline [18] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the 2505 contract operating between 750 - 810 yuan/ton [19] - Coking coal is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] - Urea futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [22] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 13.8 barrels per day in April. The US may intercept Iranian oil tankers. The US oil rig count decreased by 2 last week, and US crude production increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 13.574 million barrels per day in the week of March 21 [3] - Demand: US refinery operating rates rose by 0.1 percentage points to 87.0%. US crude inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. China's domestic crude processing volume has been declining slightly since March [3] - Outlook: The IEA raised the expected crude surplus, indicating downward pressure, but short - term long positions are recommended [3][6] Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Market Performance: The black series opened lower and then strengthened. The closing price of finished products moved slightly higher [7] - Supply and Demand: The demand for ribbed bars is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coils continue to resume production, and demand is rising, with good inventory reduction. Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the space for further increase is limited [7] - Outlook: Short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly [7] Copper - Supply: In February 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year to 397,396 tons, and it also decreased significantly month - on - month [11] - Demand: The peak season demand in March and April did not meet expectations, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low [11] - Outlook: Prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 [11] Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 26.7%, and the expected production in March increased by 13.2% month - on - month [12] - Demand: The downstream industries of asphalt are gradually resuming work, but the operating rate is still low. The actual demand is yet to recover [12][14] - Outlook: Long positions are recommended in the near term [14] PP - Supply: PP enterprise operating rates decreased to around 81%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn products decreased to around 29%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently [15] - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15] - Outlook: The PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly [15] Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate decreased to around 88%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are short - term maintenance devices [16] - Demand: PE downstream operating rates are rising, but they are still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar. New orders are slow to follow up [16][17] - Outlook: It is expected to decline, and shorting the plastic 05 basis at high levels is recommended [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 79.81%. There are a small number of new maintenance devices, and spring maintenance has not started on a large scale [18] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies. Social inventory is still high [18] - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate at a low level [18] Iron Ore - Supply: Supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and port inventories are rising slightly [19] - Demand: Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the demand space is limited [19] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton for the 2505 contract [19] Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic mine operations have increased significantly, and imported coal resources are abundant [21] - Demand: Downstream steel and coking enterprises' operations are rising, but overseas resource prices are under pressure [21] - Outlook: It is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] Urea - Supply: Upstream maintenance is progressing steadily, and the daily output is expected to remain above 190,000 tons this week [22] - Demand: Agricultural demand is increasing, and compound fertilizer factories are operating as before [22] - Outlook: Futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and cautious about chasing up [22]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea futures and spot markets are showing a divergence. The futures market is rising, but the spot market is weak with prices falling. The supply side has stable upstream maintenance, and the daily output is expected to remain above 190,000 tons this week. The demand side has increasing agricultural demand and stable compound fertilizer factory operations. The inventory is expected to continue to decline. The current futures price increase has no obvious fundamental change, and the market may return to the fundamental logic later, with the futures price likely to fluctuate and consolidate. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures main contract increased in volume and price today. The spot market is not as hot as the futures market, with prices falling and weak trading. The upstream maintenance has not significantly affected the supply but has slightly relieved the market pressure. The agricultural demand is strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The futures price increase has no obvious fundamental change, and the market may return to the fundamental logic later, with the futures price likely to fluctuate and consolidate. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2505 contract opened at 1,875 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward in the morning, and then rose and fluctuated upward in the afternoon, closing at 1,929 yuan/ton, up 3.27%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 256,709 lots (+18,946 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 10,759 lots, and the short positions increased by 10,901 lots. Some futures companies' net long or short positions changed. On April 1, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,231, a decrease of 129 from the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot**: The spot market is not as hot as the futures market, with prices falling and weak trading. The factory ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,880 - 1,930 yuan/ton, and some factories have slightly higher quotes. The prices in Shanxi are basically stable, with small - particle urea quoted at around 1,920 yuan/ton and large - particle urea at 1,910 - 1,930 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes are stable with a downward trend, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the May contract has weakened compared with the previous trading day, at 41 yuan/ton (-67 yuan/ton) [5]. - **Supply Data**: On April 1, 2025, the national urea daily output was 196,600 tons, a decrease of 80 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.33% [10].

【冠通研究】 宏观不确定性强，盘面承压运行 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜盘面小幅反弹。智利国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 2 月该国铜产量同 比骤降 5.4%至 397,396 吨，环比亦显著回落。4 月 1 日公布的 3 月财新中国制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）录得 51.2，较 2 月上升 0.4 个百分点。供应端扰动持续，市场对矿端及 冶炼厂的开工积极性保持观望状态，普遍认为供应将由小幅下移。需求端金三银四的旺季 兑现不及预期，市场情绪疲软，下游拿货积极性不高。近期库存小幅回升给盘面带来压力。 今日国内宏观经济数据或对市场情绪小幅助力。国外关税政策不确定性大，铜价受影响承 压运行。综合来看，市场情绪被宏观不确定性笼罩，现货供需双弱迹象，盘面承压运行， 预计在 79000-82000 附近波动为主。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 资料来源：博易大师（日线图表） 截至 3 月 28 日最新数据显示，现货粗炼费（TC）-24.32 美元/干吨，现货 精炼费（RC）-2.44 美分/磅。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 ...

【冠通研究】 现货市场情绪好转，短期焦煤震荡为主 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日 【策略分析】 现货市场情绪好转，短期焦煤震荡为主 今日焦煤低开后减仓上行，主力合约收盘价格上涨。环保限产影响减弱，国内矿 山开工明显抬升，进口煤资源充足，口岸库存高位运行。下游钢焦企业开工继续 回升，近期下游出货好转，国内焦煤竞拍价格上涨，但是海外资源价格仍承压。 短期看，焦煤供需双增，现货市场情绪有所回暖，但需求端缺乏弹性，预计焦煤 短期弱势震荡为主。 【期货行情】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约低开后减仓上行，最终收盘于 1008 元/吨，+6.5 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.65%。成交量 36.39 万手，持仓 33.58 万手，-32427 手，今日 焦煤 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 165760 手，-17475 手，前二十名空头持仓 为 217376 手，-16291 手，多减空减。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页 ...

【策略分析】 【冠通研究】 成本端上涨提振，成材低位小幅反弹 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日 成本端上涨提振，成材低位小幅反弹 今日黑色系低开后偏强运行，成材收盘价格重心小幅上移。成材基本面表现中性 偏弱，特别是螺纹需求显现出疲态，去库缓慢；热卷延续复产，但需求继续高位 攀升，库存去化态势较好。铁水回升幅度放缓，高炉集中复产期已经过去，后续 复产高炉较少，预计铁水继续攀升空间有限。我们认为当下材端需求预期偏弱， 加之铁水见顶风险加大，成材短期压力仍加大，但同时需关注粗钢减产和钢材出 口的消息扰动，预计盘面震荡为主。 【期现行情】 螺纹 2505 小时 K 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2505 开盘 3159 元/吨，收盘于 3170 元/吨，-3 元/吨， 涨跌幅-0.09%；热卷主力开盘 3339 元/吨，收盘于 3359 元/吨，+8 元/吨，涨跌 幅+0.24%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 682494 手， -54954 手，前二十名空头持仓为 ...

【冠通研究】 供给侧消息扰动，铁矿大幅拉涨 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日 【策略分析】 供给侧消息扰动，铁矿大幅拉涨 今日黑色系低开后偏强运行，铁矿石供给端消息扰动，午后拉涨，收回昨日跌幅。 铁矿石供应端压力逐渐回升；铁水回升放缓，后续高炉复产减少，需求上方空间 有限，港口库存持续小幅回升，去化压力逐渐显现。成材需求恢复中，但是建材 需求已显疲态，见顶风险加大。我们认为短期需求良好仍对矿价形成支撑，但需 关注的是产业链上下游消息面扰动加大，预计短期铁矿石区间震荡为主。2505 合 约运行区间参考 750-810 元/吨。 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：铁矿石主力 I2505 合约低开后偏强震荡，最终收盘于 792 元/吨，+14.5 元/吨，涨跌幅+1.86%。成交量 42.46 万手，持仓 35.52 万手，-11036 手，今日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期货行情】 铁矿石 2505 小时 K 铁矿石 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 226033 手，-2921 手，前二十名空头持仓 为 240043 手，-903 手， ...