【冠通期货研究报告】 期货方面： 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存减幅超 预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量略有增加，仍位于历史最 高位附近，美国钻机数量继续小幅回升。美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非常 大的进展"，英法乌签署意向声明拟在俄乌停火后派兵乌克兰，美国将提供包括情报和后勤等支援， 并且"承诺在俄罗斯发动攻击时为该部队提供支持"。不过特朗普警告，如果印度不按美方要求限 制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。信实工业表态，其贾姆纳格尔炼油 厂在过去约三周内未收到任何俄罗斯石油，且预计1月份也不会有俄罗斯原油交付。欧美成品油裂解 价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，美国2025年12月ISM制造业指数小幅下降，已连续10个月 低于50，市场仍担忧原油需求，中东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局。 元旦前，全球原油市场已显示出消化委内瑞拉原油出口受限的迹象 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP market shows an upward trend in a volatile manner, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, with expected limited upside space for PP, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 2nd, the downstream PP utilization rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The utilization rate of the plastic woven industry, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14% week - on - week, and the plastic woven orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 7th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the PP enterprise utilization rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring PP rose to around 23.5% [1] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, due to the oversupply of crude oil, the US military's surprise attack on Venezuela has triggered geopolitical concerns, but the key oil facilities in the country have not been damaged, and its production accounts for less than 1% of the global supply. Trump said that Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and the crude oil price remained weak [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently [1] - The downstream has entered the end of the peak season, orders such as in the plastic woven industry continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and the market lacks large - scale centralized purchases, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the quotas for the "old - for - new" and "two - important" programs for 2026, creating a positive macro environment that boosts market sentiment [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated upward with reduced positions. The lowest price was 6425 yuan/ton, the highest was 6510 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6486 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.60%. The open interest decreased by 1191 lots to 520,378 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions increased. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6020 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 6th, new maintenance devices such as Lihezhixin were added. The PP enterprise utilization rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 2nd, the downstream PP utilization rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The utilization rate of the plastic woven industry, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14% week - on - week, and the plastic woven orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 610,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's March contract dropped to $60 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastic supply and demand pattern has limited improvement, and the recent upside space of plastic is expected to be limited [1]. - Due to the new plastic production capacity put into operation recently and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak - season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 7, there were little changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and its orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year is not large, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Under the oversupply of crude oil, the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, but the key oil facilities in the country are not damaged. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and the crude oil price remains weak [1]. - New production capacities have been put into operation, and the recent plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises have insufficient procurement willingness. Although the macro - environment is warm, the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with the lowest price of 6581 yuan/ton, the highest price of 6666 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 6642 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.84%. The position volume decreased by 2207 lots to 505678 lots [2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market rose, with the price change range between - 0 and + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6670 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8550 - 9010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6700 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 7, there were little changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and its orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 50,000 tons to 610,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year is not large, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell to $60/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 冠通期货 骆利关 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 油粕日报：偏强震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 豆粕：StoneX:：将巴西大豆产量预测值较 12 月上调 0.2%至 1.776 亿吨。 一些分析师甚至预测产量将高达 1.8 亿吨。贸易商：中储粮集团本周购买 10 船 美国大豆，总量 60 万吨，今年 3 月至 5 月之间发货，而这正值巴西大豆出口高 峰期。据贸易商和分析师估计，中国近期采购的美国大豆已达 850 万吨至近 1000 万吨，相当于美国财政部长贝森特所称中国将在 2 月底前采购 1200 万吨美国大 豆的 80%。 市场流言称中储粮将在春节前暂停进口大豆抛储，引发市场一定恐慌，产生 溢价反弹，如流言成真，2 月开始油厂开机率将明显受到大豆短缺的影响，开机 率将明显降低。 近月合约明显受到政策端的影响，由于后期进口大豆货权过于集中，而抛储 时间表处于晦暗不明的状态，在具体进口大豆抛储时间表公布前，豆粕预估偏强 运行。如春节前抛储如流言一样暂停，则豆粕偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. With the coking coal comprehensive inventory at a moderately high level and overall weak supply and demand, the short - term demand is boosted by the seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills, a slight increase in hot metal production, and on - demand restocking. Macro - level interest rate cut expectations from the domestic central bank and the Fed greatly boost market confidence, and the short - term market trading logic shifts to strong macro - expectations. It is expected that coking coal will continue to rebound in the short term, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Coke Inventory**: As of December 31, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased 0.69% month - on - month to 91.6 million tons, steel mill inventory increased 0.28% to 643.99 million tons, port inventory slightly decreased to 243.09 million tons, and the comprehensive inventory slightly increased 0.04 million tons to 978.68 million tons, with the year - on - year increase narrowing to 2.93% [1] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 14 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke increased slightly to 1 yuan/ton (also mentioned as 34 yuan/ton, possible error in the report), Inner Mongolia second - grade coke decreased slightly to - 67 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 43 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Demand**: Steel prices fluctuated in the short term, with apparent demand in a seasonal contraction phase. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rose to 38.1%, and the daily hot metal output increased 0.85 million tons week - on - week to 227.43 million tons, 2.23 million tons more than last year [1] - **Upstream Coking Coal Inventory**: Coal mine coking coal inventory increased 3.68% to 293.3 million tons, port inventory increased 4.17% to 539.48 million tons. Independent coking enterprises' inventory slightly increased to 1052.5 million tons, and steel mill inventory decreased 0.55% to 802.27 million tons. The comprehensive inventory increased 40.31 million tons to 2687.55 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of nearly 14% [2] - **News**: The central bank's working conference from January 5 - 6 continued to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Fed Governor Milan said the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than one percentage point in 2026 [2] Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The 05 - contract coke opened at 1650, closed at 1773, hitting the daily limit, with an increase of 1679 lots. It is expected to continue the short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20/40 - day moving averages and the pressure near the previous high [4] - **Spot**: The spot prices of quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) coke, quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) coke, and first - grade (wet - quenched) coke were 1440 yuan/ton, 1640 yuan/ton, and 1540 yuan/ton respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore market shows a trend of gradual strengthening. On the fundamental side, the new shipments on the supply side are gradually decreasing, while the demand side is slightly recovering. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. Coupled with the futures discount under the back structure and positive basis of the futures contract, the futures and spot markets form a certain resonance in the short - term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of iron ore futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 828 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton or 3.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 491,000 lots, the open interest was 667,000 lots with an increase of 25,000 lots, and the settled funds were 12.142 billion yuan. The disk price remained in a relatively strong state [1]. - **Spot price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 9 to 822, and Super Special powder rose 9 to 699. The main swap price was 109.15 (+2.5) US dollars/ton. The swap price showed a relatively strong upward breakthrough, and the spot was also strong [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 854.1 yuan/ton, and the basis was 26.1 yuan/ton, with the basis narrowing. The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 11 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 23.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract presented a back structure and positive basis, with support below the futures price and a continued strengthening trend [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: After the year - end rush, the overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis. The shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions were weak on a month - on - month basis. The arrivals this period increased on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production recovered on a month - on - month basis. After the previous blast furnace overhauls, the blast furnaces resumed production, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and the replenishment gradually started, but the overall rhythm was still slow. There is still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing volume increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow. The continuous accumulation of port inventory and the slow replenishment of steel mills, along with the expectation of blast furnace复产 in January, the recovery of molten iron and pre - holiday replenishment support the iron ore price [2]. Macroeconomic Level - **Domestic**: In the first quarter, policy expectations are gradually rising. In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. In addition, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, which has been optimized and adjusted compared with 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it has organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budget - internal investment plan for the early batch of 2026, with a total of about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects, with a total investment of more than 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds not fully distributed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [4]. - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, in the market expectation, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall investment rating of "Oscillating with an upward bias" for the aquaculture industry chain [1] Core Viewpoints - Soybean prices are expected to continue their upward trend due to strong policy auction results, reduced grassroots grain reserves, and rumors of halted imports [1] - Corn prices are expected to gradually rise in the new year, and investors should watch for buying opportunities after the supply pressure eases [1] - For eggs, with high resistance to capacity elimination and no strong incentive for the industry to clear capacity, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2] - For pigs, although the annual supply is stable, there is an obvious acceleration in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The mainstream trading price is 2.12 - 2.25 yuan per catty, up from the previous trading day [1] - Policy auctions of domestic soybeans have strong results, with active trading and premium transactions, boosting market confidence [1] - Grassroots grain reserves are decreasing, traders are reluctant to sell, and rumors of halted imports of soybeans strengthen the upward trend [1] Corn - As of December 25, 2025, the corn sales progress in the Northeast is 44%, 8% faster than the same period in 2024; in North China, it is 40%, 1% slower than the same period in 2024 [1] - Spot prices are rising slightly. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and the overall demand remains rigid [1] Eggs - In December, the laying hen inventory dropped to 1.295 billion, with a young - dominated structure that resists capacity elimination [2] - Without egg prices falling below feed costs, the industry lacks the motivation to clear capacity [2] Pigs - In 2025, the actual total pig output of domestic breeding enterprises reached 155.79 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.38% compared to 2024 [3] - The annual output shows significant pre - and post - holiday differences and seasonal characteristics [3] - There is an obvious acceleration in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, glass production lines have successively undergone cold repairs, and the short - term supply contraction has improved the phased supply - demand structure. Coupled with market rumors, the short - term price may maintain a volatile and strong operation. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened higher and moved higher, showing strength during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks opened upward, indicating a short - term continuation of the volatile and strong signal. The intraday short - term pressure was near the 60 - day moving average, and the support was near the 40 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 1.692 million lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 11,416 lots. The intraday high was 1166, the low was 1097, and the closing price was 1148, up 66 yuan/ton or 6.1% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: Overall, the transactions were okay. Some manufacturers raised their quotes, and the spot market was stable with fluctuations. In the North China market, the shipments in the Shahe area were good, and inventory decreased significantly; in the East China market, the overall production and sales were okay, and some had price - increase expectations; in the Central China market, enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and market prices remained stable; in the South China market, the overall transactions were okay, and the prices of large and small glass sheets in Guangdong rose together [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1010, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 1st, the daily average output of national float glass was 151,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% compared with the 25th. The national float glass output was 1.0733 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.38%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%; the average capacity utilization rate was 76.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. Five production lines underwent cold repairs last week, and the supply decline trend was obvious [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.757 million heavy boxes or 3.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.96%. The inventory days were 25.6 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and the inventory has shifted from enterprises to the middle and lower reaches [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - improvement orders are mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] - **Profit**: As of January 1st, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 191.40 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 24.36 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 17.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 65.23 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 43.34 yuan/ton). The profitability of glass production lines continued to deteriorate, and the average profit of different fuels has been in continuous losses for 10 weeks [3] Main Logic Summary - The production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises. There were already 6 glass production lines undergoing cold repairs before New Year's Day, and there are still cold - repair plans after New Year's Day, with an expected further supply contraction. However, real - estate development investment and funds in place have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inventory of methanol ports in China continued to accumulate this week, but there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after the price drops. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 64,900 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 25,100 tons. The inventory of methanol ports continued to accumulate this week, with 324,900 tons of explicit foreign vessels and 109,000 tons of non - explicit foreign vessels included in the cycle. Although the support for reverse flow weakened significantly, the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu continued well, and the inventory accumulated under the background of more unloading. The rigid demand in Zhejiang was stable, and the inventory also accumulated. The inventory in South China ports showed an increase. In Guangdong, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels for replenishment during the week, the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was acceptable, and the local inventory decreased. In Fujian, imported vessels arrived at the port intensively, and there was a small amount of domestic vessel replenishment. Under the rigid demand consumption of downstream enterprises, the inventory continued to increase [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the issue of Venezuela. Trump said that the United States needs to fully obtain Venezuela's oil and other resources. If they do not comply with the regulations, the United States will launch a second strike against Venezuela [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market fluctuated within the day, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily level. In the short term, the inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is average, so there is a certain upward pressure. However, as time goes by, January should be a stage of slowdown in imports, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after the price drops. At present, the key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 【期现行情分析】 纯苯日内小幅震荡，上方压力依旧较大，整体仍然呈现供强需弱的状态，目 前仍然弱势对待。 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨，同比上升 56.09%。12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，不完全统计到 货约 3.95 万吨，提货约 1.25 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中，3 个库区上升，4 个库区持稳。 苯乙烯方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.23 万吨，较上周期减 0.65 万吨，幅度-4.68%。商品量库存在 7.73 万吨，较上周期 减 0.6 万吨，幅度-7.20%。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。 【宏观面分析】 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 特朗普：美国需要完全获取委内瑞拉的石油和其他资源。如果他们不 ...