【冠通研究】 短期震荡运行，关注铁水边际变动 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 3 日 【策略分析】 短期震荡运行，关注铁水边际变动 1 【期货行情】 铁矿石 2505 小时 K 今日铁矿石 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 273676 手，+10409 手，前二十名空 头持仓为 272037 手，+9720 手，多增空增。 【基本面跟踪】 产业方面：外矿方面，3 月 24 日-3 月 30 日，全球铁矿石发运总量 3187.8 万吨， 环比增加 103.1 万吨。澳洲发运量 1986.4 万吨，环比增加 107.8 万吨，其中澳 洲发往中国的量 1527.0 万吨，环比增加 34.4 万吨。巴西发运量 661.4 万吨，环 比增加 24.9 万吨。中国 47 港铁矿石到港总量 2372.3 万吨，环比减少 267.3 万 吨；中国 45 港铁矿石到港总量 2243.6 万吨，环比减少 267.0 万吨。截止 3 月 27 日，全国 126 家矿山铁精粉日均产量和产能利用率为 41.1 万吨和 65.15%，环比 -0.01 万吨/天和-0.02 个百分点。 基本面上，外矿方面，本期外矿发运延续小幅回升，澳洲 ...

关税落地商品整体承压，基本面支撑有限成材弱势震荡 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 3 日 【策略分析】 关税落地商品整体承压，基本面支撑有限成材弱势震荡 【冠通研究】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 热卷 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2510 开盘 3243 元/吨，收盘于 3231 元/吨，-21 元/吨， 涨跌幅-0.65%；热卷主力 2510 开盘 3376 元/吨，收盘于 3360 元/吨，-28 元/吨， 涨跌幅-0.83%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2510 合约前二十名多头持仓为 862917 手，+48192 手，前二十名空头持仓为 924962 手，+63217 手，多增空增；热卷 HC2510 合约前二十名多头持仓为 744034 手，+107189 手，前二十名空头持仓为 679182 手，+85275 手，多增空增。 现货方面：今日国内钢材价格持稳为主，上海地区螺纹钢现货价格为 3230 元/吨 （-10 元/吨）；上海地区热轧卷板现货价格为 3350 元/吨（-10 元/吨）。 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：冲高回落 制作日期：2025年4月3日 【策略分析】 沥青多单暂时逐步止盈平仓 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至25.7%，较去年同期低了0.8个百分点，沥青开 工率继续回落，基本与近年同期最低位相当。据隆众资讯数据，3月份预计排产238.6万吨，环比增 加27.8万吨，增幅为13.2%。上周沥青下游各行业陆续复工，开工率继续反弹，其中道路沥青开工环 比回升2个百分点至19%，但开工率仍然偏低，恢复缓慢。政府工作报告表示拟安排地方政府专项债 券4.4万亿元，比上年增加5000亿元，要加快各项资金下达拨付，尽快形成实际支出，关注形成的沥 青实物工作量的进度。本周山东地区部分炼厂月底执行合同出货，出货量增加明显，全国出货量环 比增加0.87%至24.40万吨，但仍处于低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比减少，连续两周环比下降， 仍处于近年来同期的最低位，受新一轮冷空气影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。特朗普签署行政命 令，自4月2日起，美国将可能对从任何直接或间接进口委内瑞拉石油的国家进口的所有商品征收25% 的关税，委内瑞拉原油出口至中国受限，另外特朗普政府命令全球石油码头公司必须在5 ...

地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/04/03 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价全线下跌,美油 5 月合约跌 0.66%,报 70.73 美元/桶。布油 6 月合 约跌 1.03%，报 73.72 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨,COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.41%报 3190.3 美元/盎司, 刷新历史新高，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.01%报 35 美元/盎司。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一,LME 期铜涨 0.29%报 9721 美元/吨,LME 期锌跌 0.94%报 2790 美元/吨,LME 期镍跌 1.08%报 15995 美元/吨,LME 期铝跌 0.6%报 2489.5 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 1.43%报 37650 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 1.25%报 1975 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约全线收跌, 大豆期货跌 0.48% 报 1029.25 美分/蒲式耳;玉米期货跌 0.92%报 457.5 美分/蒲式耳, 小麦期货跌 0.51%报 537.75 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Daily Trading Strategy - Production Date: April 2, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Zhang Na (F03104186/Z0021294), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) - Report Issuing Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: The international biodiesel policy boosts the sector, but the US policy mainly affects 2026 and later. Palm oil supply is rising but may be affected by weather, with weak demand and potential inventory accumulation. Domestic demand is weak, and the 05 contract is near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high. Soybean oil is affected by multiple factors, with the 05 contract in short - term oscillation and expected to be weak in April [3][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic weekly production is rising, supply pressure persists, and inventory is increasing. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 78,000 yuan [7]. - **Copper**: Market sentiment is affected by macro uncertainties, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are many uncertainties in the market. Although there is downward pressure, due to various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions [14][15]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][19]. - **PP**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. - **Plastic**: Supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract basis at high prices [21][23]. - **PVC**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. - **Soybean Meal**: International supply pressure is high, and domestic supply is gradually improving. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [27]. - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [29][30]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 1865 - 1910 [31]. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Palm oil rose 2.04%, soybean oil 0.66%, and rapeseed oil 1.69% [3]. - **International Factors**: The US plans to increase biofuel blending, and there are weather warnings in palm oil - producing areas. Indian palm oil imports increased in March [3]. - **Domestic Factors**: Palm oil import profit is inverted, demand is weak, and inventory is low. Soybean oil production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell high for the 05 palm oil contract; the 05 soybean oil contract is expected to be weak in April [3][6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price fell 1.25% to 73,723.30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [7]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is high with some small - factory production cuts. Demand is growing, and inventory is increasing but at a slower rate [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the spread after concentrated warrant cancellation, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the 73,000 - 78,000 yuan range [7]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated and declined [13]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply may decrease slightly in April, demand in the peak season is less than expected, and inventory has increased slightly [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. Crude Oil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: OPEC+ is increasing production, US production is slightly up, and global demand and inventory are complex. There are many geopolitical factors [14][15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [15]. Asphalt - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level [16][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [19]. PP - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Downstream demand is slowly recovering, supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and inventory is at a medium - low level [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. Plastic - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is increasing with new production and some maintenance, demand recovery is slow, and inventory is at a medium - low level [21][23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short the 05 contract basis at high prices [23]. PVC - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and inventory is slowly decreasing [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The price rose 0.57% [25]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: International supply pressure is high, domestic supply is improving, and demand is weak [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [26]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and inventory is increasing [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate in the 750 - 810 yuan/ton range [27]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, with slow rebar de - stocking and good hot - rolled coil de - stocking [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is expected to oscillate [28]. Coking Coal - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but demand lacks elasticity [29][30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [30]. Urea - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is slightly easing, demand is affected by price, and inventory is decreasing [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the 1865 - 1910 range [31].

早盘速递 2025/4/2 重点关注 尿素、棕榈油、铁矿石、碳酸锂、PVC、白银 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 3.56% 贵金属, 23.10% 油脂油料, 12.80% 软商品, 3.05% 有色, 20.99% 煤焦钢矿, 14.93% 能源, 2.59% 化工, 14.48% 谷物, 1.75% 农副产品, 2.75% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 1、美国"对等关税"靴子即将于4月2日落地。据知情人士透露，白宫助手起草了一份提案，拟对至少大多数输美商品征收约 20%的关税，但不会在周三宣布任何关于制药关税的细节。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟有强有力的反制计划，必要时将 反击美国关税政策。美联储巴尔金 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the tariff is implemented, market uncertainty is high. The supply side has continuous disturbances, and it is generally believed that the supply will decline slightly in April. The peak season demand in March and April fails to meet expectations, and the market sentiment is weak. After the tariff issue is resolved, the market may stabilize and return to fundamentals. The market sentiment is overshadowed by macro - uncertainties, with signs of weak supply and demand in the spot market, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 [1] 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market closed down in shock today. Codelco will supply copper concentrate to Adani Group's $1.2 billion copper smelter. The US March ISM manufacturing index was 49, lower than expected and the previous value, showing the first contraction this year. The market is uncertain before the tariff is implemented. Supply may decline slightly in April, demand fails to meet expectations, and inventory increases recently, putting pressure on the market. After the tariff issue is resolved, the market may return to fundamentals, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened high and moved high, then closed down at 79,890 per ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 2,140 to 124,775, and the number of short orders increased by 542 to 129,600. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 15 yuan/ton, and in South China is 30 yuan/ton. On April 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,703/ton, with a spot premium of -$51/ton [3] Supply Side - As of March 28, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$24.32/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -2.44 cents/pound [4] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 130,400 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous period. As of March 31, Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 112,100 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. LME copper inventory is 211,900 tons, a slight decrease of 1,400 tons. COMEX copper inventory is 97,500 short tons, an increase of 1,349 short tons [7]

【冠通研究】 盘面收平，行情等待新驱动 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 2 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约高开低走震荡收平。昨日期货飘红并未影响下游情绪，今日收 单情况仍然不佳，市场价格下跌为主，本期企业待发天数有减少。供给端来看， 目前处于尿素装置频繁检修期，近日安徽昊源、阿克苏华锦等有检修情况，同时 复产企业并行，供给端小幅缓和，依然压制价格。需求端来看，随着前期价格升 高，下游接货能力有所负反馈，需求端口环比上月增加部分农需，复合肥工厂开 工负荷稳定，终端多消耗前期低价货源，成品库存增加，成本价格高企，关注利 润承压下，开工负荷的变化。本期库存依然稳定去化，本季度预计持续去化。目 前基本面偏向紧平衡状态，暂时没有新驱动情况下，盘面以高位震荡运行为主， 关注 1865-1910 区间。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1918 元/吨高开低走，盘面震荡收平，最终 收于 1896 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅 0.00%，日成交有所缩量，持仓量 234467 手（-22243 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-18056 手，空头-9553 手。 其中，华泰期货净多单减少 867 手、 ...

【冠通研究】 PP：震荡运行 【期现行情】 制作日期：2025年4月2日 观望 【策略分析】 春节假期后第八周，PP下游整体开工环比基本稳定，处于年内较低水平。其中塑编开工率环比 持平于47.4%，塑编订单继续小幅回升，与前两年同期基本相当。美国加征关税不利于PP下游制品出 口。金诚石化等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至83%左右，仍处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝 生产比例下降至26%左右。月底石化停销结算结束，石化累库较多，石化库存升至近年农历同期中性 偏低水平。上游原油价格企稳反弹给予成本支撑。供应上内蒙古宝丰3#3月刚投产，近期检修装置增 加较多，下游恢复缓慢，新增订单有限，节前刚需采购为主，成交一般，未见明显放量。不过，下 游需求有望继续恢复，建议PP05合约观望为主。 期货方面： PP2505合约减仓震荡运行，最低价7333元/吨，最高价7385元/吨，最终收盘于7365元/吨， 在20日均线上方，涨幅0.37%。持仓量减少8194手至308231手。 现货方面： PP现货品种价格涨跌互现。拉丝报7150-7530元/吨，共聚报7265-7730元/吨。 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 投资有风险， ...

沥青：震荡运行 制作日期：2025年4月2日 【策略分析】 沥青近期多单持有 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.5个百分点至26.7%，较去年同期低了3.5个百分点，沥青开 工率继续回落，基本与近年同期最低位相当。据隆众资讯数据，3月份预计排产238.6万吨，环比增 加27.8万吨，增幅为13.2%。上周沥青下游各行业陆续复工，开工率继续反弹，其中道路沥青开工环 比回升2个百分点至19%，但开工率仍然偏低，恢复缓慢。政府工作报告表示拟安排地方政府专项债 券4.4万亿元，比上年增加5000亿元，要加快各项资金下达拨付，尽快形成实际支出，关注形成的沥 青实物工作量的进度。上周山东地区部分炼厂月底执行合同出货，出货量增加明显，全国出货量环 比增加5.49%至24.19万吨，但仍处于低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比减少，结束春节假期之后的 持续增长态势，仍处于近年来同期的最低位，受新一轮冷空气影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。特 朗普签署行政命令，自4月2日起，美国将可能对从任何直接或间接进口委内瑞拉石油的国家进口的 所有商品征收25%的关税，委内瑞拉原油出口至中国受限，另外特朗普政府命令全球石油码头公司必 须在5月27 ...