有色金属周报(电解铜) 美国经济硬数据表现稳健推升美元指数， 特朗普最早或于5月对进口铜加征25%关税 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年3月27日 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 有色金属周报(电解铜) 国内库存趋降全球库存向北美转移， 传统消费旺季和高价抑制需求交织 www.hongyuanqh.com 电解铜 宏观：美国参众两院通过临时支出法案，但联邦政府债务上限问题尚未解决，使美联储放缓缩减资产 负债表；美国2月消费者物价指数CPI年率为2.8%低于预期和前值，美联储降息预期时点为6和9及12月，但 因美国经济硬数据表现稳健，或使美元指数震荡走强。 上游：哈萨克铜业公司Kazakhmys旗下乌勒套州江阿尔卡县境内一座铜矿发生矿难事故而暂停生产， ACG Metals旗下Gediktepe多金属矿山的硫化铜矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度投产且初期年产量为2.5万吨， 印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司（Freeport McMoRan）3月17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更高 出口税，或使国内3月铜精矿生产（进口）量环比增加（增加）； 宏源期货研究所 电解铜 下游： ...

| m | 贵金属日评20250327:美联储官员表示优先关注通胀预期,美国财政部或最早8月现违约 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-03-20 | 2025-03-26 | 2025-03-25 | 收盘价 | 709.02 | 708. 50 | 2. 26 | 0. 52 | 706. 76 | | | | | 成交量 | 238342. 00 | 234643.00 | 3, 699.00 | 172384.00 | 65, 958. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 211694.00 | 206973.00 | 52092. 00 | 4, 721. 00 | 159, 602. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 15675.00 | 15675.00 | 15675.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/3/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 间日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | J2601 | 1705.5 | 1697.0 | 8.5 | JM2601 | 1142.0 | 1141.0 | 1.0 | 101甚至 | -270.0 | -2615 | -8.5 | | J2505 | 1615.5 | 0.5651 | 23.5 | JM2505 | 1025.5 | 1027.0 | -15 | J05基差 | -180.0 | -156.5 | - 53.5 | | 12509 | 565997 | 1646.5 | 13.0 | JM2509 | 1079.0 | 1083.5 | -4.5 | 100 变云 | -224.0 | -211.0 | -13 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The core drivers of copper price fluctuations are the expected tariff policy of the Trump administration and the supply - demand imbalance caused by various incidents. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, and the decline of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is slowing down. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of copper prices in different markets [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On March 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 82,000 yuan, up 90 yuan from the previous day. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 82,655 yuan, up 1,090 yuan. The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,907, down 187.50 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 205,774 lots, an increase of 89,531 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 247,777 lots, a decrease of 1,562 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai copper futures was 139,568 tons, a decrease of 3,572 tons from the previous day. The registered and cancelled warehouse receipt total inventory of LME copper decreased by 216,750 tons. The COMEX copper total inventory increased by 283 tons [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The Shanghai copper basis was 655, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day. The spread between different - month contracts of Shanghai copper also changed to varying degrees [2]. Industry News - **Tariff Policy**: The market generally expects the US to impose a 28% import tax on April 2. Traders are rushing to export about 600,000 tons of copper to the US before the tariff takes effect, leading to regional supply imbalances [2]. - **Supply - Side Incidents**: Glencore PLc suspended copper shipments from the Altonorte smelter in Chile due to furnace problems. The annual copper production capacity of this plant is about 850,000 metal tons. A copper mine of Kazakhmys in Kazakhstan suspended production due to a mine accident [2][4]. Macro - economic Situation - The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill, but the federal government debt ceiling issue remains unresolved, causing the Fed to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet. The US consumer price index annual rate in February was 2.8%, higher than expected. The expected time points for the Fed to cut interest rates are June, September, and December, but the strong economic data may cause the US dollar index to strengthen [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Multiple copper - related projects have production changes. For example, the sulfide copper ore expansion project of ACC - Metalstape's polymetallic mine will be put into production in the first quarter of 2028 with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. Some smelters' production is affected by various factors, and the supply of scrap copper also shows different trends [4]. - **Demand**: High copper prices are suppressing new orders from downstream enterprises. The capacity utilization rates of copper rod factories and some copper - related product enterprises have decreased, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption season and economic stimulus policies, the capacity utilization rates and production of some steel enterprises may increase [4]. Investment Strategy - Due to the influence of Trump's tariff policy and other factors, cross - market arbitrage trading is guided. Considering the strong US economy, the traditional consumption season in China, and the suppression of high - price copper on procurement, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of copper prices in different markets [4].

| 碳 锌 8 详20250327:国内碳酸锂3月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-03-18 2025-03-17 2025-03-11 交易日期(日) 较昨日变化 | | | | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 75160.00 | 76020.00 | 74000.00 | -860.00 | | | 连一合约 收盘价 75400.00 | 76240.00 | 75700.00 | -840.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 75700.00 | 76460.00 | 75960.00 | -760.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 75700.00 | 76460.00 | 76020.00 | -760.00 | | | 收盘价 75400.00 | 76240.00 | 75960.00 | -840.00 | | | 砖酸包期货 成交量(手) 134587.00 活跃合约 | 137017.00 | 88034.00 | -2,430.00 | | | (元/吨) 256955. ...

| | | 尿素早评20250327:短期偏强震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 2025/3/26 | 2025/3/25 | 变化值 | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1877.00 1900.00 1790.00 | 1870.00 1890.00 1760.00 | 7.00 10.00 30.00 | 0.37% 0.53% 1.70% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1890.00 | 1864.00 | 26.00 | 1.39% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1880.00 | 1880.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 | | | | | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1910.00 | 1890.00 | 20.00 | 1.06% | | | (小顆粒) | 河 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250327: 利多驱动有限 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/3/26 | 2025/3/25 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2516.00 | 2511.00 | 5.00 | 0.20% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2552.00 | 2549.00 | 3.00 | 0.12% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2438.00 | 2431.00 | 7.00 | 0.29% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2662.50 | 2677.50 | -15.00 | -0.56% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2470.00 | 2500.00 | -30.00 | -1.20% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2650.00 | 2660.00 | -10.00 | -0.38 ...

沪铜日评20250326:国内铜冶炼厂3-4月检修产能环增,国内电解铜社会库存量震荡下降 | | 变量名称 | 2025-03-25 | 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-17 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 81910 | 81840 | 80520 | 70.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 116243 | 135447 | 86128 | -19, 204. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 249339 | 250501 | 233226 | -1,162.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 143140 | 146011 | 163102 | -2,871.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | | | | | | | | | SMN 1#电解铜十均价 沪铜县差 | 81565 -3451 | 81025 -818 | 79955 -565 | 540.00 470. 00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | 190 | 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream steel demand shows seasonal improvement, the construction industry recovers rapidly, and the market sentiment is boosted by rumors of production restrictions. Steel prices are strong, and steel mills' profits are decent. Steel mills are steadily resuming production, with a rapid increase in hot metal output, strengthening the rigid demand for coke. Coke futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and coking coal futures are also expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: On March 26, 2025, for contracts like J2601, J2505, and J2509, prices decreased compared to the previous day. For example, J2601 dropped from 1702.0 to 1697.0. The spreads between different contracts also changed slightly [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: Contracts such as JM2601, JM2505, and JM2509 also saw price declines. For instance, JM2601 fell from 1145.0 to 1141.0. Spreads between contracts changed as well [2]. - **Coke Spot**: Most coke spot prices remained stable, like the Xingtai and Heze factory - ex prices [2]. - **Coking Coal Spot**: Some coking coal spot prices changed, such as the Australian medium - volatile coal price increasing from 1517 to 1555 [2]. - **Coking Profit**: The 01 and 05 contract coking profits decreased slightly, while the 09 contract profit increased slightly [2]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: 247 steel enterprises' hot metal daily output increased by 5.67 to 236.3, a 2.46% increase. The daily output of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 1.35 to 63.8, a 2.16% increase. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 12.3 to 135.0, an 8.36% decrease [2]. - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: 110 coal - washing plants' clean coal daily output increased by 0.3 to 52.7, a 0.52% increase. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal increased by 41.7 to 855.5, a 5.34% increase [2]. 3. Important News - In mid - March, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 216.6 million tons, a 1.6% increase month - on - month. Steel inventory was 1691 million tons, a 4.1% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 13.4% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - In March, the planned south - bound volume of northeast rebar was 36 million tons, a 1.9 million - ton increase year - on - year and a 1.3 million - ton increase month - on - month. The planned south - bound volume of wire rod was 29.5 million tons, a 0.7 million - ton increase year - on - year and a 2.9 million - ton increase month - on - month [4]. - The US, Russia, and Ukraine agreed to ensure navigation safety in the Black Sea and help Russia restore the export channels of agricultural products and fertilizers [4]. - In February, China's crude steel output decreased by 3.3% year - on - year to 78.9 million tons, and global crude steel output decreased by 3.4% year - on - year to 144.7 million tons [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce will carry out pilot projects for automobile circulation consumption reform, introduce targeted measures for tax - free shopping, and establish a list of key foreign - trade high - quality product enterprises [4]. - On March 25, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 97.80 million tons, a 30.5% decrease month - on - month. The transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 12.78 million tons, a 10% decrease month - on - month [5]. - In 2025, China's macro - economy will continue to develop well, driving an appropriate increase in energy and coal consumption. The growth rate of hydropower generation will slow down, while wind and photovoltaic power generation will continue to grow rapidly. Coal market supply and demand will face short - term pressure, but there will be an increase in annual coal consumption [5]. - From March 14 to March 20, the China Price - Xinhua Coking Coal Price Index showed signs of stabilizing. The spot index was 1080 points, a 0.55% decrease; the auction index was 1082 points, a 0.46% increase; the long - term agreement index was 1045 points, unchanged [5]. 4. Trading Strategies - Coke: The downstream steel demand has seasonal improvement, the construction industry recovers quickly, and the market sentiment is boosted. The coke futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - Coking Coal: The main - producing area coal mines have stable production, and the downstream coking enterprises' procurement has increased. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly [6].