| | | | 甲醇日评20250331: 利多驱动有限 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/3/28 | 2025/3/27 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絕对圓) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 太仓 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2517.00 2660.00 | 2530.00 2685.00 | -13.00 -25.00 | -0.51% -0.93% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2541.00 2435.00 | 2563.00 2454.00 | -22.00 -19.00 | -0.86% -0.77% | | | 甲醇现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2465.00 | 2470.00 | -5.00 | -0.20% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2645.00 | 2655.00 | -10.00 | -0.38% | ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/3/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 商日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1704.5 | 1717.0 | STT | JM2601 | 1140.0 | 1148.5 | -8.5 | 101基美 | 01697- | -281 - | 15.5 | | J2505 | 1617.5 | 1637.5 | -20.0 | JM2505 | 1024.0 | 1035.0 | -11.0 | 105基差 | -182.0 | -202.0 | 20.0 | | 12509 | OT599T | 1672.0 | -110 | 8055VIE | 1080.5 | 1087.5 | -7.0 | 100 变蛋 | -255.5 | -236.5 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the Indonesian government's frequent policy adjustments in the nickel industry and unresolved refined nickel surplus situation lead to nickel price fluctuations, with a risk of price pull - back after a rise. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy [1] - For stainless steel, due to relatively loose supply, slow demand recovery, and limited support from raw materials, it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract showed a slightly stronger trend, with a trading volume of 249,977 lots (+52,503) and an open interest of 106,286 lots (-1,815). LME nickel rose 0.82%. The spot market trading activity was average, and the basis premium decreased [1] - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore changed little, and port inventories were stable. In February, production in some major Indonesian regions was adjusted, with a decrease in production scheduling and a downward expectation for metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to operate at a loss, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance but declined slightly due to fewer days in February [1] - **Demand**: Ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless steel mills' production scheduling showed a stable and positive trend, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories decreased, LME inventories increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories increased [1] Stainless Steel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: The previous trading day's stainless steel main contract showed a slightly stronger trend, with a trading volume of 206,853 lots (+39,941) and an open interest of 129,740 lots (+1,990). The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased [1] - **Supply**: Stainless steel production scheduling decreased slightly in February [1] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1] - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 712,100 tons (-13,800) [1] Industry News - SNNC's FeNi production in Q4 2024 was 7,000 tons of metal, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 30%. The annual production in 2024 was 37,000 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.37% [1] - Shaanxi Yinkuang and Hongma Technology reached a strategic cooperation to jointly promote the construction of a 4,800 - ton nickel sulfate project [1] - On March 27, SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 107 tons to 26,846 tons. In the past week, they decreased by 1,676 tons (5.88%), and in the past month, they decreased by 1,187 tons (4.23%) [1] - On March 27, LME nickel inventories increased by 222 tons to 201,300 tons. In the past week, they increased by 864 tons (0.43%), and in the past month, they increased by 8,658 tons (4.49%) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Due to the Fed's expected interest rate cuts, mild European fiscal easing expectations, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and uncertain geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: On March 27, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold was 708.98 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.90 yuan compared to the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 22,506.00, a decrease of 8,184.00 compared to the previous day. For COMEX futures active contracts, the closing price was 3,057.50, with a change of 11.60 compared to March 19, 2025; the trading volume was 123,043.00, a decrease of 43,210.00 compared to the previous day. The London gold spot price was 3,056.55 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.30 compared to the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The EU and Canada hinted at retaliating against auto tariffs, and Trump warned that if they joined forces against the US, tariffs would be "far higher" than the current plan. The annualized quarterly环比 growth rate of the US GDP in the fourth quarter was finally revised up to 2.4%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, was revised down to 2.6% [1] Silver - **Market Data**: On March 27, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai silver was 8,334.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 14.00 compared to the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was -175,602.00, a decrease of 450,664.00 compared to the previous day. For COMEX futures active contracts, the closing price was 35.32, with a change of 0.90 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 34,382.00, an increase of 4,954.00 compared to the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill, but the issue of the federal government's debt ceiling remains unresolved. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted as early as August - September, which may slow down the Fed's reduction of its balance sheet. The annual inflation rate of the US CPI in February was 2.8%, lower than expected and the previous value, but due to the strong performance of the US economic hard data, the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been reduced to June and September, which may cause the US dollar index to gradually bottom out [1] Macroeconomic and Other Information - **Interest Rates**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.5%. The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 4.5% in March and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the policy rate to 0.5% [1] - **Stock Indices**: On March 27, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3,373.7489, up 8.92 from the previous day; the S&P 500 was 5,693.3100, down 18.89 from the previous day [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 104.2597, down 0.30 from the previous day; the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1763, with no change from the previous day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic traditional consumption seasons lead to optimistic downstream demand expectations, but due to the expected tariffs imposed by Europe and the US on Chinese battery products and energy storage systems, the supply - demand outlook for domestic lithium carbonate in March is balanced. The price of lithium carbonate is likely to be volatile and difficult to rise significantly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 68,000 - 72,000 and the resistance level around 75,000 - 78,000 [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On March 18, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 75,160 yuan/ton, 75,400 yuan/ton, 75,700 yuan/ton, and 75,400 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 134,587 lots, a decrease of 2,430 lots, and the open interest was 256,955 lots, an increase of 2,344 lots. The inventory was 36,135 tons, an increase of 328 tons [1] - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,100 yuan/ton, also an increase of 150 yuan/ton [1] Company News - Core Lithium Ltd completed the second - quarter project in 2025, terminated the last operating contract, and obtained 100% ownership of all infrastructure, reducing current and future operating costs [1] - A new energy company in Luoyang achieved stable production of its alumina - pure lithium carbonate project, with an expected annual output of 500 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The project plans to invest 5.18 billion yuan, with a designed annual production capacity of 8,000 tons of alumina - pure lithium carbonate [2] - Tianqi Lithium adjusted its future lithium salt capacity plan. It currently has a chemical product capacity of about 91,600 tons/year, and the total planned capacity after completion of announced projects will be 120,600 tons/year. Its under - construction production lines include a 37,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang and a 1,000 - ton metal lithium project in Chongqing [2] - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary Talison operates the Greenbushes lithium mine. The total output of lithium concentrate is about 100,000 tons/year currently, and it is expected to reach 2.14 million tons/year after the completion of the chemical - grade No. 3 plant [3] - Zheneng Technology's semi - solid battery products have achieved large - scale shipments. The second - generation semi - solid battery is expected to be mass - produced in 2025 and may be commercialized in high - tech fields [3] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium concentrate and an increase in production and imports in March. The operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate production decreased last week, but the production in March may increase, and the supply is expected to be loose [4] - Albemarle's Chengdu salt production line will be inspected before June 2025. Zijin Lithium's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The cash production cost of some lithium carbonate production methods is negative, while others are positive [4] - The import window is closed. The first - phase 10,000 - ton lithium chloride capacity of Weifeng Lithium's Mariana salt lake project in Argentina was officially put into production in February, which may increase China's monthly lithium carbonate imports. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate is negative, leading to an increase in the inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange and social inventories [4] - The cash production cost of lithium hydroxide is positive for some enterprises. Hainan Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium hydroxide smelting capacity will be put into production in January, and Yahua Group plans to build a 77,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025. Most enterprises have resumed normal production, increasing the production of lithium hydroxide [4] Demand Side - The average monthly production cost of phosphoric acid iron is 11,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton. The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron in March may increase. The average monthly production cost of lithium iron phosphate is 24,200 yuan/ton. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate factories has increased, and the production of some large - scale factories has increased, while some small and medium - sized factories may stop production [5] - The production and imports of some precursors may increase in March. The processing fees of ternary precursors and ternary materials have decreased, and the production profits of some products are negative. The production of six - fluorophosphate lithium may increase, and the exports may also increase [6] - The production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage cells, power cells, and lithium batteries in March may increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in March may also increase [6] Trading Strategy - Due to the expected supply - demand balance of domestic lithium carbonate in March, it is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 68,000 - 72,000 and the resistance level around 75,000 - 78,000 [6]

| 沪锡日评20250328：国内精炼锡产能开工率环比下降，国内外精炼锡库存量较上周增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变动 | 变量名称 2025-03-27 2025-03-26 | 2025-03-21 | | 近期記势 | | 收盘价 | 281390 277650 | 276150 | 3, 740. 00 | | | 成交量(手) | 117479 113585 沪锡期货活跃合约 | 162510 | 3, 894. 00 | | | 持仓重(手) | 40579 12905 | 91212 | 27, 674. 00 | | | 库存(吨) | 8622 8541 | 8217 | 81. 00 | | | 沪锡县差 | SMM 1#锡半均价 278900 278200 | 281200 | 700. 00 | | | (现货与期货) | 沪锡县差 -2490 550 | 5050 | -3,040.00 | | | 沪锡近月-沪锡连一 | -380 -490 | -480 | 110.00 | | | 价差(近月与远月) | 沪锡 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250328:短期偏强震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 变化值 变化值 单位 2025/3/27 2025/3/26 | | | | (絶对值) | (相对值) -0.80% | | UR01 UR05 山东 山西 | (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1862.00 1891.00 1940.00 1830.00 | 1877.00 1890.00 1900.00 1790.00 | -15.00 1.00 40.00 40.00 | | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | 0.05% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1869.00 | 1880.00 | -11.00 | -0.59% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 2.11% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | 2.23% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1950.00 | 1910.00 | 40.00 | 2.09% | | 河北 | ( ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250328: 利多驱动有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/3/27 | 2025/3/26 | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2530.00 | 2516.00 | 14.00 | 0.56% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2563.00 | 2552.00 | 11.00 | 0.43% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2454.00 | 2438.00 | 16.00 | 0.66% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2685.00 | 2662.50 | 22.50 | 0.85% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2470.00 | 2470.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2655.00 | 2650.00 | 5.00 | 0.19% | | ...

晶硅系列专题 2025 年 3 月 27 日 晶硅系列专题五：交割篇 报告摘要： 分析师：祁玉蓉 从业资格证号：F03100031 投资咨询证号：Z0021060 研究所 金属期货（期权）研究室 TEL： 010-82295006 Email： qiyurong@swhysc.com 相关图表： 相关报告： 《晶硅系列专题一：跌宕起伏的光伏发展 史》 《晶硅系列专题二：光伏"黑金"—多晶 硅》 《晶硅系列专题三：多晶硅期货合约解读 及上市前瞻》 《晶硅系列专题四：多晶硅期货收评及后 市展望》 《工业硅系列专题一：硅石篇》 《工业硅系列专题二：工业硅篇》 《工业硅系列专题三：交割篇》 《工业硅系列专题四："硅能源"全产业 链期货的重要性研讨》 《工业硅系列专题五：有机硅篇（上）》 《工业硅系列专题六：有机硅篇（下）》 《工业硅系列专题七：交割质量标准修改 解读》 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 多晶硅期货上市以来，运行平稳，首次交割于 6 月进行，相应 交割流程将于 4 月 1 日开启，为了让市场各方详细了解交割规 则细则、流程和操作细节，3 月 20 日，广州期货交易所在厦门 国贸泰达 ...

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