晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 15 日 成材：宏观仍是目前影响价格关键 钢价震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻辑： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Market Last week, the prices of the black series in the market fluctuated significantly due to macro - factors, especially the frequent changes in US tariff policies. The market sentiment was affected, and the prices of various commodities showed different trends. In the short term, there may be some rebounds, but overall, the market is under pressure, and the focus of trading will gradually shift to the industrial fundamentals [9][10]. 2.2 Specific Varieties - **Finished Products**: Short - term rebound, overall under pressure. The main trading logic is at the macro level, and the prices are affected by trade policies. Pay attention to trade policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term impact of "reciprocal tariffs" is weakening, and the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose. It is recommended to operate within the range of 690 - 720 yuan/ton for the 2509 contract. Focus on terminal demand, mainstream mine shipments, and the impact of reciprocal tariffs [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is still affected by tariff policies, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Pay attention to the rhythm changes of mines and steel mills and the clearance of imported coal [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices are expected to follow the trend of the black market. The demand has some resilience, but the supply is shrinking. Pay attention to tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, and steel mill profits [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From April 3 to April 11, 2025, most varieties' futures and spot prices declined. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3231 to 3131, a decrease of 100 yuan or 3.10%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai dropped from 3230 to 3160, a decrease of 70 yuan or 2.17%. However, the spot price of coking coal in Jiexiu increased by 20 yuan or 1.79% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Finished Products - **Logic**: The prices were affected by macro - factors last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased, and the profitability of steel mills decreased. The inventory of rebar continued to decline, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased significantly. The main trading logic is at the macro level, and the frequent changes in US tariff policies lead to price fluctuations [9]. - **View**: Short - term rebound, overall under pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: After the panic - selling caused by macro - negatives last week, there was a short - term rebound. The supply may decline seasonally, the demand is in the recovery stage but has limited upside, and the inventory is expected to rise in April, which will put pressure on prices [10]. - **View**: The short - term impact of reciprocal tariffs is weakening. The supply - demand relationship tends to be loose. It is recommended to operate within the range of 690 - 720 yuan/ton for the 2509 contract [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Affected by tariff policies, the futures prices of coking coal and coke reached new lows in more than eight years. The spot market showed signs of stabilization, and some coking enterprises planned to increase coke prices. The demand for coke is good, but the supply is also increasing [11]. - **View**: The market is still affected by tariff policies, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Affected by the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the market sentiment was bearish. The supply of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased, the demand had some resilience but was difficult to increase significantly, the inventory pressure was relieved to some extent, and the cost changed little [12]. - **View**: The prices are expected to follow the trend of the black market. Pay attention to tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, and steel mill profits [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 232.37 million tons, the apparent demand was 252.68 million tons, the total inventory was 777.76 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 20.31 million tons. The long - process output was 201.91 million tons, and the short - process output was 30.46 million tons [14][17][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Last week, the output was 313.30 million tons, the apparent demand was 315.33 million tons, the total inventory was 384.31 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.03 million tons [25][30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Inventory**: The port inventory of imported ore was 14341.02 million tons, a decrease of 127.39 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9077.13 million tons, a decrease of 94.59 million tons compared with the previous week [42][50]. - **Shipment**: The global total shipment was 2907.7 million tons, a decrease of 14.2 million tons compared with the previous week. The shipment from Australia to China was 1476.3 million tons, an increase of 23.2 million tons compared with the previous week [66][76]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke was 1008.39 million tons, an increase of 0.86 million tons compared with the previous week. The total inventory of coking coal was 2622.68 million tons, an increase of 22.42 million tons compared with the previous week [90][99]. - **Profit and Basis**: The profit of coke in different contracts increased compared with the previous week, and the basis of coke and coking coal also changed [111][114][117]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased, the spot price of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased, and the inventory of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises increased [123][127][137]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron decreased, and the demand for both increased [129][131][133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The aluminum price fluctuated within a range with increased volatility due to the repeated impact of tariff policies on the market. Short - term industry开工率 is expected to weaken slightly, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is likely to maintain a relatively fast destocking rhythm. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the support of downstream purchasing after the price correction [10]. - Zinc: The zinc price adjusted downward due to macro - factors. The supply support is weakening, and it is expected that the price will return to the fundamentals and show a weak trend after the release of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, mine production release, and consumption release [11]. - Tin: The tin price is expected to run strongly overall. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia, as well as the trade policies of various countries [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 有色周度行情回顾 - The closing prices of futures main contracts and spot prices of various non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel) decreased last week. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2505 decreased by 4.60% week - on - week, and the spot price of copper decreased by 5.75% week - on - week [8]. 3.2 02 本周有色行情预判 Aluminum - Logic: Affected by the tariff policy, the aluminum price dropped significantly and then fluctuated. The repeated tariff policy in the US undermined investors' confidence in the US dollar. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated sharply in April, and the 12 - month inflation expectation soared. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased. - Viewpoint: The aluminum price will fluctuate within a range with increased volatility, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and downstream purchasing. - Later attention: Geopolitical crisis, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [10]. Zinc - Logic: The zinc price adjusted downward due to macro - factors. The output of refined zinc in China increased in March, and the processing fee of zinc ore rebounded, but the increase in output has not been fully reflected. - Viewpoint: The supply support of zinc is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the release of sentiment. - Later attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [11]. Tin - Logic: The tin price fluctuated greatly last week. It dropped significantly due to the US tariff policy and the news of mine resumption in Congo (Kinshasa), and then rebounded due to policy adjustments and earthquake news. - Viewpoint: The tin price is expected to run strongly. - Later attention: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia, and trade policies of various countries [12]. 3.3 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） Aluminum - Bauxite: The prices of domestic high - grade and low - grade bauxite in Henan decreased week - on - week, and the import bauxite price index also decreased. The arrival volume at ports increased, while the departure volume decreased [16][17]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased, the full cost decreased, and the profit in Shanxi decreased [21]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The total cost decreased, and the regional price difference changed. The operating rates of downstream processing sectors such as aluminum cables, foils, and profiles showed different trends. The inventory in bonded areas increased, the social inventory decreased, and the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased [23][25][31]. - Spot and basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan changed in different periods, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum also changed [36][39][40]. Zinc - Zinc concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased slightly, the domestic processing fee increased, and the import processing fee remained unchanged. The enterprise production profit decreased, the import loss decreased, and the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased [44][49]. - Refined zinc: The social inventory, bonded area inventory, SHFE inventory, and LME inventory of zinc ingots all decreased [52]. - Galvanized: The output and operating rate increased, the raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [55]. - Basis and monthly spread: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc changed [58][61]. Tin - Refined tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces decreased, and the combined operating rate also decreased [66]. - Tin ingot: The SHFE tin ingot inventory increased, and the social inventory in different regions of China decreased [69]. - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week but decreased year - on - year [71]. - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level increased [72]. - Spot average price: The average prices of tin concentrate in different regions decreased week - on - week [76].

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：需求存见顶风险 建议仍偏空对待 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 策略：建议区间操作，2509 合约价格区间 690~720 元/吨。 后期关注/风险因素：终端需求变动、主流矿山发运、对等关税影响。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com ...

晨报 成材 成材：宏观层面扰动较大 钢材低位运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 14 日 逻辑：国务院关税税则委员会：自 2025 年 4 月 12 日起，调整对原产 于美国的进口商品加征关税措施，由 84%提高至 125%。鉴于在目前关税水 平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品 继续加征关税，中方将不予理会。上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.19%，环比上周增加 0.56 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 53.68%，环比上周减 少 1.73 个百分点；日均铁水产量 240.22 万吨，环比上周增加 1.49 万吨。 全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均开工率 73.43%，环比下降 0.7 个百分点； 平均产能利用率 55.77%，环比上升 0.13 个百分点。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 上周市场波动较大，主要是受到美国贸易战的影 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：情绪变化主导 价格偏弱震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：关税政策扰动仍存，市场情绪变化主导价格运行；基本面上原 料需求尚可，但供应增量同样明显，整体供需形仍显宽松，维持震荡偏弱 对待。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 14 日 逻辑：上周，受关税政策变化扰动影响，引发金融市场剧烈震荡，目 前关税战稍有缓和但仍未结束；焦煤焦炭期价重心再度下移，价格刷新近 八年多以来低点，尤其焦煤表现更弱。煤焦现货市场有企稳迹象，近期焦 煤价格小幅反弹，带动部分地区焦化企业开始对焦价进行首轮 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the steel products industry is "sideways consolidation" [3] - The rating for the aluminum industry is "expected short - term range adjustment" [4] Report's Core View - The steel products market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. It is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner [3] - The aluminum market has a complex situation. Although the inventory decline strengthens the fundamental support, the tariff policy is uncertain, the overseas demand is suppressed, and the price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Steel Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - **Market Situation**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Viewpoint**: The steel products market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - **Inventory**: On April 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from Monday and 21,000 tons from last Thursday. The overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [3] - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1%. Some recycled aluminum plants reduced their April operating levels due to order reduction and inventory pressure, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand and export - oriented die - casting enterprises' orders. China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal [3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

整理 投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 工业硅 工业硅：供需矛盾仍存延续累库，硅价弱势震荡 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 4 月 14 日 逻辑：上周工业硅市场报价平稳，实际成交价格有下压可能，北方大厂减 产落实，其余厂家暂未跟随。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 10100-10300 元/吨，华 东 421# ...

铁矿石：需求存见顶风险 建议反弹做空为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 11 日 晨报 铁矿石 供应方面：本期主流矿山存在季未冲量后的季节性下滑预期，一般存在 1 周左右发运环比 减量，非主流保持相对偏弱，国产矿处于缓慢回升阶段，关税影响下现货价格大幅下挫，但整 体仍高于 90 美金/吨，短期价格对供给收缩影响不显著。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：需求整体处于回升阶段，本周铁水已升至 240 万吨/日(钢联口径)，当前高炉钢 厂利润受成材价格下行影响出现显著压缩，叠加关税对出口端影响将逐步显现，预期铁水回升 高 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：供需双增 价格低位震荡 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 11 日 重要声明： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：贸易摩擦升级、宏观扰动加剧，黑色金属板块延续震荡偏弱走 势，原料跌幅居前。煤焦现货市场有企稳迹象，近期焦煤价格上涨 10-60 元/吨不等，部分地区焦化企业开始对焦价进行首轮提涨，涨幅 50-55 元/ 吨，但主流市场焦企尚未调整，期市价格偏弱，现货提涨仍在博弈。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，五大材去库趋势良好，且当前钢厂盈利率尚可，本周 高炉开工 ...