Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started shutting down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January. Individual mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity moves down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, aluminum prices fluctuated. The market is paying attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday to find clues about a possible interest - rate cut next month. New trade tariffs and inflation risks make some policymakers cautious about easing policies [1] - In terms of fundamentals, aluminum production is increasing slightly. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, under the influence of the off - season, terminal and processed material consumption is hard to exceed expectations. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [2] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - sectors, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly [2] - It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost aluminum foil and aluminum profile demand [2] - On August 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from Monday and up 8,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. It is expected to move within a range in the near term, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact may still put pressure on the upside [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The market is currently more focused on the industrial fundamentals, and although there are expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the future, the short - term trading is mainly based on industry conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - After consecutive days of weakness, the black series rebounded yesterday due to the news of military parade production restrictions, and the implementation strength needs further attention. The macro - level disturbances have weakened, and the market has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The apparent demand for finished products is weak, and the carbon element's valuation on the futures market has returned. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has weakened. The high profit of blast furnaces has declined from its peak, and short - process steelmaking at off - peak electricity has fallen into losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore has strong resilience but limited growth space, and the unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the futures price [2] Supply - The shipment of foreign iron ore has increased more than expected. Australia's shipment is stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipment has reached a record high, and the shipment from non - mainstream sources has risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can maintain its high - level upward trend and the military parade production restrictions in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise on a week - on - week basis and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. Looking forward, as the arrival volume decreases and the pig iron output remains high, the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment cools down, and with the approaching parade time, there is an expectation of declining demand, causing prices to run under pressure [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, coking coal prices fluctuated weakly with a downward price center. Recently, the exchange tightened the opening restrictions on the coking coal 2601 contract and increased the intraday trading handling fee, leading to a fluctuating decline in coking coal prices. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak transactions, and prices declined. After the sixth round of coke price increase, individual coke enterprises in some regions planned further price increases, but mainstream coke enterprises had not issued letters yet [2] Environmental Production Restrictions - It is understood that steel mills in Tangshan have received oral notices of environmental production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%. Additionally, some steel mills reported that from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40%. Continued attention should be paid to the production reduction situation of steel mills [2] Fundamentals - This week, coal mines in Shanxi maintained a production - increasing rhythm, but the overall increase was slow. The daily average output of clean coal in coal mines this week was 771,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. After the downstream's centralized replenishment ended, the mines started to accumulate inventory again. According to Mysteel research, coal mines are expected to continue the resumption of production in the short term. Due to weakening demand, pit - mouth inventories will continue to rise [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The finished products will focus on macro - policies and downstream demand, while the aluminum products will focus on macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity continued to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price was weakly adjusted. The Fed's meeting minutes showed that most officials did not support an interest - rate cut at the last meeting. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting to see if it will counter the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut [2] - In terms of fundamentals, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with a slight increase. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is difficult to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of industries such as home appliances and photovoltaics has slowed down, and some aluminum export orders have declined, with the construction industry still showing a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery. In different sectors, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [3] - On August 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from Monday and up 8,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The macro - interest - rate cut expectation is repeated. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent inventory - consumption trend needs attention. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upper limit [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from tight - balance to balance, and the short - term price will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market focuses more on industrial fundamentals, with positive external macro factors and domestic policies in the reserve stage, still having expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - External ore shipments have rebounded more than expected. Australian shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazilian shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). Steel mills have a high profitability rate and relatively good blast furnace profits, while the short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2][3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and pig iron production remains high, the short - term inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation [1][3] - The aluminum ingot prices are expected to have short - term weak fluctuations and be adjusted in the range recently, with the subsequent focus on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with individual ones after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] For Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, traders are waiting for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest rate policy clues. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry symposium to strengthen investment management [2] - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. In terms of demand, although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is hard to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of some industries has slowed down, and some export orders have declined. The construction industry is still in a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In some sub - fields, the operating rate increased, while the recycled aluminum operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost demand [3] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Macro - level interest rate cut expectations support prices. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and actual impacts are expected to put pressure on the upside [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Market sentiment is cooling down, and with the approaching parade time, there is an expectation of a decline in demand, causing prices to face downward pressure [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Logic**: Yesterday, coking coal prices fluctuated weakly with a downward shift in the price center. Recently, the exchange tightened the opening restrictions on the coking coal 2601 contract and increased the intraday trading handling fee to calm market sentiment, leading to a pull - back after the coking coal price soared. Over the weekend, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, impacting the market sentiment. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices declined. After the sixth round of coke price increases, some coke enterprises in certain regions planned further price hikes. In terms of environmental production restrictions, Tangshan steel mills received oral notices of environmental production restrictions, with a 30% sintering machine production limit from August 25th to September 3rd and a 40% blast furnace production limit from August 31st to September 3rd. Fundamentally, last week, Shanxi coal mines resumed the production - increasing rhythm, but some mines in Linfen reduced production due to underground conditions and the implementation of the 276 - working - day policy, resulting in slow overall production increase in Shanxi. Mysteel's research predicts that coal mines will likely continue the resumption of production this week, but due to multiple factors such as environmental protection and safety, the production - increasing progress is slow and easily interrupted by emergencies [2] - **View**: Market sentiment is cooling down, and with the approaching parade time, there is an expectation of a decline in demand, causing prices to face downward pressure [3] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors**: Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace start - up and coal mine resumption of production [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the steel price fluctuates greatly and runs weakly in a volatile manner [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Situation - Under weak demand, the steel price is in a callback situation [2] - Although the expectation of production restriction still exists, the impact of macro - sentiment has declined, and the steel price has returned to its own fundamentals to a certain extent. Currently, the weak downstream situation persists and is difficult to improve in the short term [3] Production Restriction Measures - Some independent strip steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan plan to implement production suspension from August 20th to September 3rd. If strictly enforced, it is expected to reduce the daily output of 10 local billet - rolling strip steel enterprises by about 0.5 million tons [3] - Some steel pipe production enterprises will take production reduction measures on August 20th, and only National VI and new - energy vehicles are allowed to enter the factory for transportation [3] - From 0:00 on August 20th to 24:00 on August 24th, billet - rolling section steel production enterprises will control the transportation of National V and below fuel - powered and gas - powered vehicles. From 8 p.m. to 8 a.m. the next day, 109 key vehicle - using units will control 70% of their fuel - powered and gas - powered vehicles [3] Production Data - In July, China's rebar production was 15.182 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 113.387 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [3] Market Performance - Yesterday, the price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner. The price of rebar hit a recent low, and the price of hot - rolled coil slightly decreased [3] Factors to Watch - Macro policies; production reduction on the supply side; downstream demand [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced. Short - term interval operation is recommended. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore runs in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The rebound of foreign ore shipments exceeds expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reach a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support on the supply side is weakening [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average molten iron output is 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable, while the short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction situation in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has continued to increase month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in the arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and the molten iron output remains high, it is expected that the inventory will generally tend to be stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price has corrected due to the drag of raw materials. Although there is still an expectation of production restrictions, the impact of macro - sentiment has decreased, and the steel price has returned to its fundamentals to some extent. Currently, the weak downstream situation persists and is difficult to improve in the short term. The raw materials are expected to fluctuate greatly in the short term and run weakly in a volatile manner [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Steel Production Data - In July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 66.8 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, with a daily output of 2.1548 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [3]. Home Appliance Retail Data - According to AVC offline market monitoring data, in July, the offline retail sales of color TVs increased by 13.6% year - on - year, refrigerators by 15.7%, washing machines by 15.7%, and air conditioners by 36.5% [3]. Steel Mill Cost and Profit Data - On August 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3352 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 76 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. Steel Price Data - On August 18, the ex - factory tax - included price of common billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was lowered by 20, reporting 3050. The finished steel fluctuated and declined yesterday. Rebar hit a recent low, and hot - rolled coil fell slightly [3].