晨报 煤焦 逻辑：上周煤焦期货价格延续震荡走势，周五及夜盘价格下挫。现货 方面，多地煤价保持连续小幅反弹后暂稳运行；焦企因成本增加，多地焦 企计划首轮提涨焦价。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：供需双增 节前注意持仓风险 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 29 日 从基本面来看，近期唐山市受环保政策影响，要求企业在 9 月底前做 好硬减排措施准备，但本次限产多以自愿为主，实际落实减产情况一般。 上周日均铁水产量增长 1.34 万吨至 242.36 万吨，对于原料的消耗保持高 位 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern, pessimistic market sentiment, and lackluster winter storage [1][2]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, supported by the marginal improvement of the supply - demand pattern, the increase in downstream processing enterprise开工率, and the depletion of social inventory due to pre - holiday stocking [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content For成材 - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel producers will suspend production from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills has suspended production on January 5th, and most others will suspend production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week but a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Price Movement**: The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low recently. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity is moving down, and this year's winter storage is lackluster, providing little price support [2]. For铝锭 - **Macro Environment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the US economy grew faster in the second quarter than previously expected. Traders believe the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next meeting is 89.8%, lower than nearly 92% a week ago [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of the aluminum market has increased slightly due to the ramping up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% last week [2]. - **Downstream Performance**: The aluminum cable sector was the main driving force, with the operating rate increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors also increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. However, the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry was facing challenges such as export decline and low - end product competition [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 46,000 tons from last Monday [2]. - **Price Outlook**: With the macro - interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled and approaching the peak consumption season, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and holiday risks [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - With the Fed's rate - cut decision made and macro - disturbances significantly reduced, the market's focus is expected to shift to real - world trading. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing. Although pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended, hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure for continuous inventory accumulation is low. Therefore, iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price will fluctuate within a range, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 - 108 US dollars/ton in the overseas market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased on a month - on - month basis. Australian shipments have dropped significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the average in the past five weeks is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. In this period, blast furnace steel mills have continued to resume production, mainly due to the normal resumption after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang regions. Domestic demand is higher than the average level in August (240.5). The daily average hot metal output in this period is 242.36 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.34). As the production cost of steel mills rises and the price of finished products weakens, the blast furnace profit has declined from a high level and is approaching the break - even point. The profitability rate of steel mills continues to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand has basically ended. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level of steel mills has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume in this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to the high domestic demand and the insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure for inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is range - based operation and covered call options [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and running weakly [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are expected to maintain a high - level operation in the short term, with prices supported by pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with an estimated impact of 741,000 tons on building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will stop production, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished product prices hit a new low recently, with a pessimistic market sentiment in the context of weak supply and demand. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - The supply of the aluminum market has a small increase due to the climbing of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% [3] - The aluminum cable sector is the main driving force, with the operating rate rising by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. The aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry has limited upward momentum [3] - On September 25, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons compared with Monday and last Thursday. Short - term downstream purchasing increased, and the spot premium was firm [3] - In the medium - term, aluminum consumption is generally warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry [3]

晨报 成材 成材：成材基本面尚可 钢价震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 26 日 逻辑：墨西哥政府拟对中国等非自贸伙伴的产品提高进口关税税率的 相关措施，具体涉及汽车及零部件、纺织品、服装、塑料、钢铁、家电、 铝、玻璃等产品类别。商务部决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投 资壁垒调查。云南钢企"反内卷"迈出实质性一步。五家龙头钢企锁定省 内 60 万吨资源投放，控产、稳价、共管秩序进入实操阶段，并达成多个 重要决议。根据钢联周度数据，本周螺纹钢产量上升 0.01 万吨至 206.46 万吨，热卷产量下降 2.3 万吨至 324.19 万吨，五大材总产量上升 9.47 万吨至 864.93 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 13.98 万吨至 636.3 万吨，热卷 总库存上升 2.51 万吨至 380.5 万吨，五大材总库存下降 9.13 万吨至 1510.61 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal and coke supply and demand are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices. The short - term futures market will continue to fluctuate widely [4] Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices continued to fluctuate. In the spot market, coal prices in many places continued to rebound slightly, and coke enterprises in many places initiated the first round of price increases due to increased costs. [3] - Since June, coal prices have risen significantly, while coke price increases have lagged behind, with a strong expectation of a compensatory increase. The entire coke industry is in a serious loss state, and the cost side strongly supports coke prices. Considering that steel mills still have profits, steel production is expected to remain at a high level, and coke demand will continue to be strong. Starting from September 26, the ex - factory price of coke will be comprehensively increased by 50 - 85 yuan/ton, and the entire coke industry is recommended to reduce production by more than 30% [3] Fundamental Data - Recently, affected by environmental protection policies in Tangshan, enterprises are required to prepare for hard emission reduction measures before the end of September. However, this round of production restrictions is mostly voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. This week, the daily average pig iron output increased by 1.34 million tons to 242.36 million tons [4] - In the coal mine sector, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi and other places has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the production increase of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. This week, the daily average output of clean coal was 77.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.6 million tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much next week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, with the market's supply - demand pattern improving marginally and social inventory decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - flow construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline with a new low, and the market sentiment was pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern and lackluster winter storage [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, there are increasing differences within the Fed on future monetary policy, and a balance needs to be struck between high inflation and a weak employment market [2] - The supply of the aluminum market has a slight increase due to the ramping - up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The overall aluminum consumption is warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry. The operating rate of processed materials is rising steadily [3] - On September 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from Monday and last Thursday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises support the confidence of the raw material market. The short - term market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to fluctuate. Spot prices of coal in many regions rebounded slightly continuously. Coke enterprises planned to initiate the first round of price hikes due to increased costs [2] - Recently, affected by environmental protection policies in Tangshan, enterprises are required to prepare for strict emission reduction measures before the end of September. However, most of the production restrictions are voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average [2] - Last week, the average daily pig iron output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons [2] Coal Mine Production - In coal mines, the production of previously resumed mines in Linfen, Shanxi has returned to normal, and production has continued to increase. With the production increase of large mining groups in Changzhi Qinyuan, the output has increased significantly. This week, the average daily output of clean coal is 772,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons [2] - It is expected that the coal mine output in the main production areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much next week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [2] Coking Coal Imports - The import volume of coking coal has steadily increased month - on - month. In August, China imported 1.01622 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.02%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 7.26075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 632,030 tons, a decline of 8.01% [2] - In August, the import volume of Mongolian coal was 601,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.8%. High - frequency data shows that the daily customs clearance volume of the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal in September is still higher than that in August, supporting domestic coal supply [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Low-level operation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is oscillating. The downstream situation remains weak, and the price is consolidating at a low level. Attention should be paid to weekly fundamental changes [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to strictly control cement and glass production capacity and prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity [1] Production and Inventory Data - In mid-September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons (3.4%) from the previous ten-day period [1] Cost and Profit Data - This week, the average tax-excluded hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,228 yuan/ton, and the average tax-included billet cost was 2,986 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex-factory price of 3,030 yuan/ton on September 24, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 44 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] Market Performance - Yesterday, finished products oscillated and rebounded, driven by the rise of coking coal and glass in the afternoon [1] Factors to Watch - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions are the factors to watch in the later stage [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation, and the market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are supported by the peak season, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point. The price is expected to be adjusted weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - Six short - flow steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - The fundamental situation of alumina remains in an oversupply pattern. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high [3] - As of last Thursday, the total installed capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly starting rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - Last week, the starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3] - On September 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots at domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, the same as last Thursday and 100 tons higher than last Monday. From September 16 - 21, the domestic aluminum ingot delivery volume was 122,300 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4]