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煤焦:铁水日产保持高位,盘面震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively high. The peak demand season combined with the downstream's remaining restocking space supports the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices firm. In the short term, the futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Coal and Coke Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded with oscillations and closed in the green. Driven by downstream restocking during the holiday, the first round of coke price increase was completed. The price of tamped dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and tamped wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - After the first - round price increase of coke, the profits of coke enterprises have improved. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner without blockages [2] - Steel mills' operations remain at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintained at around 2.42 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coking coal at the pithead has increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the warehouse - delivery equivalent price at about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance will increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, with the daily customs clearance volume increasing from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, and a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needs continuous tracking [3]
华宝期货国债期货早报-20251009
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 07:44
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华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251009
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:44
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [2][4][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province will also have varying degrees of shutdown, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of output [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - During the holiday, non - ferrous metals in the external market generally rose, and LME aluminum was strong. The US government shutdown has entered the eighth day, and Fed officials believe that the risks in the US job market have increased enough to support interest rate cuts, but many policymakers are still vigilant about high inflation [3] - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants rebounded slightly. The comprehensive PMI index of aluminum processing increased by 2.4 percentage points to 55.7%. Different sub - sectors showed structural differentiation [4] - On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with September 29 and an increase of 32,000 tons compared with September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum is expected to face certain pressure in the early post - holiday period. In October, the aluminum - water ratio of some northern enterprises is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to remain low, which will support the aluminum price [4] - With the continuous expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the short - term macro - favorable atmosphere and the stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4][5]
煤焦:焦价提涨落地,盘面震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:44
Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]
铝锭:金九下游开工改善,警惕长假风险,成材:重心下移偏弱运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:41
Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [2][3]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news. Before the holiday, it is expected to oscillate at a high level, and later, the inventory - consumption trend should be monitored. Be vigilant about long - holiday risks [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January to the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui Province, one of the 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Future factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingots - The aluminum market supply has increased slightly due to the ramping - up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The aluminum processing comprehensive PMI index in September increased by 2.4 percentage points to 55.7% [3]. - Different aluminum sub - industries show different performances. The aluminum plate and strip industry PMI is in the expansion range, the aluminum foil industry PMI reaches 62.5%, the building profile industry PMI is below the boom - bust line, the aluminum cable industry PMI rises to 53.8%, the primary aluminum alloy PMI is above the boom - bust line, and the recycled aluminum industry PMI rebounds to 61.2% [3]. - With the decline in aluminum prices, processing plants have some stocking demand for the double festivals, and social inventories have decreased. On September 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 46,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Future factors to watch include changes in macro expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption of production, and consumption release [4].
煤焦:焦企计划首轮提涨节前注意持仓风险
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The futures market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, and investors should pay attention to position - holding risks before the holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - In the past two days, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have been fluctuating weakly, driving the overall sector to weaken. On the spot market, coal prices in many places have remained stable after a continuous small - scale rebound. Due to increased costs, coke enterprises in many places plan to raise coke prices for the first time [2] Fundamental Analysis - Tangshan is affected by environmental protection policies and requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures before the end of September. However, most of the production restrictions are voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. The daily average pig iron output last week increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons, and the consumption of raw materials remains at a high level. Steel mills are generally profitable, and in the short - term, as the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream restocking enthusiasm is high, and the inventory of coking coal and coke is further transferred from upstream to downstream [2] Supply - side Situation - At the coal mine end, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the increased production of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 772,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main producing areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much this week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [2]
2025年4季度有色金属分析报告:有色金属季报四季度旺季支撑价格成色决定高度
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 13:57
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation at home and abroad, as well as the market conditions of aluminum, zinc, and tin in the fourth quarter of 2025. Overseas, the US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone shows a mild recovery. Domestically, the economy is in a state of fluctuating recovery, and domestic demand needs policy support. In the non - ferrous metals market, the prices of different metals are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies, and each has different price trends and investment outlooks [4][55][56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Fed Restarts Preventive Rate Cut, Domestic Economy Awaits Policy Drive Market Operation Logic - **US**: Economic growth momentum is weakening, with the manufacturing sector in a contraction zone and the service sector being the main economic support. The labor market is deteriorating, inflation is showing a slight rebound, and the Fed cut interest rates in September. The market expects a high probability of a rate cut in October, but future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [19][20][21]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing sector is under pressure again, while the service sector drives a mild economic recovery. Inflation is stable, and the ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September [28][29][30]. - **Domestic**: Investment growth momentum is insufficient, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment facing challenges. Consumption shows weakening recovery momentum, but may pick up in the fourth quarter. Exports and imports maintain stable growth, and prices are expected to gradually recover [35][40][45]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas: The US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone is in a mild recovery. The Fed may cut interest rates in October, and the ECB will be cautious about further rate cuts [55]. - Domestic: Investment growth momentum is declining, but infrastructure and manufacturing investment may stabilize and grow in the fourth quarter. Consumption may recover mildly, and exports and imports are expected to continue to grow. Prices are expected to gradually recover [56]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand conditions [59]. Aluminum: Peak Season Drives Inventory Reduction, Focus on the Strength of "Silver October" Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. In July, it first rose and then fell; in August, it remained high; in September, it rose first and then fell [61][62]. - **Cost Side**: Bauxite prices may show a weak - oscillation trend in the short term, and alumina prices are expected to continue to decline. The cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline slightly [66][72][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remains high, and the import loss is expanding [78][80]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has narrowed, and the industry is greatly affected by policies [82]. - **Demand Side**: The processing end shows a phased recovery, and the terminal demand is differentiated. The real estate market is still in adjustment, while the power, automotive, and other industries support demand [87][90][94]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Inventory has decreased, providing support for aluminum prices [96]. Market Trend Judgment In the short term, aluminum prices are strongly supported at high levels during the peak season, but there is room for adjustment after the peak season. The price range in the fourth quarter is expected to be between 19,800 - 20,000 for support and 21,000 - 21,500 for resistance [100]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas event disturbances, mine resumption and shipping conditions, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand performance [102]. Zinc Ingot: High Supply Meets Structural Demand, Inventory Pressure Needs to be Verified in Peak Season Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: Zinc prices first rose and then fell. In the off - season, supply pressure was high, and demand was weak. In September, prices were supported by the peak season and interest - rate cut expectations but then adjusted [104][106][107]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: New production capacity is being released, and the resource shortage is gradually easing. Domestic and foreign processing fees are expected to diverge, and the import loss is expanding [108][112][116]. Market Trend Judgment In October, zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text. Tin Ingot: Probability of Overseas Supply Increase, Risk of Price Center Decline Market Operation Logic - **Supply Side**: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is the key factor. The delay in mining progress has affected smelter operations, and processing fees are at a low level [9]. - **Demand Side**: The semiconductor, automotive, and home appliance industries support tin demand, but the growth rate may slow down in the fourth quarter [9]. Market Trend Judgment Tin prices may decline from high - level oscillations in the fourth quarter, mainly depending on the increase in production in Myanmar's Wa State [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text.
2025年4季度黑色金属分析报告:弱现实主导,盘面供给端仍存扰动
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 13:57
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic growth momentum is weakening, and the Federal Reserve has restarted preventive interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a high probability of a rate cut in October, but the future monetary policy path will still be based on economic data such as employment and inflation. The domestic economy is in a state of fluctuating recovery, and boosting domestic demand still requires policy drive [2][4][56][58]. - For steel products, the improvement in demand is limited, but the "anti - involution" policy is expected to slightly lift the price. The overall view of the fourth - quarter trend is neutral to bullish [8][9][84]. - For iron ore, the industry and macro factors are divergent, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is relatively weak in the fourth quarter. The price increase is restricted by the profit contraction pressure of the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory, while the positive macro - narrative provides a lower - bound support for the price [14][15][130]. - For coking coal and coke, the policy environment is favorable, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is maintained. The coking coal and coke market had a significant rebound in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the "anti - involution" policy will support coal prices, but factors such as seasonal inventory accumulation, terminal demand resilience, and potential crude steel production reduction policies need to be considered [18][167][168]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Market Operation Logic - **U.S.**: The economic growth momentum has weakened, with the manufacturing sector remaining in the contraction range, the service sector being the main driving force for economic growth, the labor market growth almost stagnant, inflation showing a slight rebound, and core inflation remaining sticky. The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts in September, and the market generally expects a high probability of a rate cut in October [2][23][28]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing contraction has intensified, while the service sector has become the key to stabilizing the economy. The overall inflation rate meets the ECB's target, but the core inflation rate remains firm. The ECB decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged in September, and the market's expectation of an October rate cut is uncertain [2][31][34]. - **Domestic**: The investment growth momentum has declined, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continuing to fall, and real estate development investment significantly dragging down overall investment. The consumption market shows weakening recovery momentum, structural differentiation, and diminishing policy effects. The foreign trade has maintained stable growth, with exports and imports both increasing for three consecutive months. The domestic price level is still low, but CPI is expected to gradually recover, and the decline of PPI is expected to continue to narrow [3][37][42][47]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the U.S. economic growth momentum is weakening, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in October. The Eurozone economy is in a mild recovery, and the ECB is cautious about further rate cuts. - Domestically, the investment growth momentum is declining, but infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment are expected to stabilize and grow in the fourth quarter. The consumption market is expected to recover moderately, and foreign trade is expected to continue its stable growth. The price level is expected to gradually recover [56][57]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends and monetary policy changes, the evolution of U.S. tariff policies, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand conditions [4][60]. 2. Steel Products Market Operation Logic - **Real estate**: The real - estate market has not yet bottomed out, and its impact on building materials is neutral to bearish [7][62]. - **Exports**: Steel exports have maintained growth in the first eight months, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter due to trade frictions [8][64][66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils is at a reasonable level, and the fourth - quarter de - stocking cycle will have little impact on prices [8][68]. - **Crude steel production**: The probability of a decline in annual crude steel production is high, with rebar production likely to be flat or slightly down and hot - rolled coil production likely to increase [8][70][72]. - **Automobile market**: The automobile market has entered the peak season, and production and sales are expected to reach new highs [8][73][75]. - **Home appliance market**: The home appliance market has grown under the "national subsidy" policy, but the previous consumption has overdrawn some future demand, and the quarterly growth rate may slow down [9][76][77]. Market Trend Judgment - The overall view of the fourth - quarter trend is neutral to bullish. Although the lack of downstream demand growth has a negative impact on prices, the "anti - involution" policy is expected to slightly lift the price center [84]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Changes in U.S. trade policies, the introduction of unexpected macro - stimulus policies in China, and the introduction of substantive policies on domestic crude steel production control [9][86]. 3. Iron Ore Market Operation Logic - **Market review**: In the third quarter, iron ore prices fluctuated due to the "anti - involution" policy, terminal demand, and Fed rate cuts [14][88][89][91]. - **Supply side**: The fourth quarter is a high - shipping season for mainstream mines, but the annual increase of the four major mines is limited. Non - mainstream mines' short - term increase does not change the weak situation, and domestic mine production continues to be weak [14][97][118]. - **Demand side**: The fourth quarter is a seasonal demand off - season, but due to the current high steel - mill profit rate and strong expectations of macro - policy increments, the decline in iron ore demand is expected to be small. The annual production of pig iron is expected to increase [14][119]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ports is expected to be basically stable in the fourth quarter, with the overall inventory lower than at the end of last year [15][121][129]. Market Trend Judgment - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the fourth quarter. The upper limit of the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit and inventory structure, while the lower limit is supported by macro - factors. The price of the main contract of Dalian Iron Ore is expected to be in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 100 - 105 US dollars/ton [15][130]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, the stability of overseas ore shipments, and domestic policy increments [15][132]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Market Operation Logic - **Third - quarter market review**: In the third quarter of 2025, the coking coal and coke market had a significant rebound, with the price center rising. The market was driven by the "anti - involution" policy, supply - tightening expectations, and actual production declines [18][134][136]. - **Coking coal**: The reduction in coking coal mine production is limited, and the "anti - involution" policy has a positive impact on coal prices. The import volume of coking coal has rebounded in the third quarter, but the annual volume is still expected to decline. The inventory structure has been optimized, but seasonal inventory accumulation may occur in the fourth quarter [18][138][154]. - **Coke**: The coking industry's profitability has improved, and production has increased. However, exports are under pressure due to Indian import restrictions and the rise of Indonesian capacity. The high pig - iron production supports the rigid demand for coke, but the potential crude steel production reduction policy needs attention. The coke inventory is at a medium level [18][156][163]. Market Trend Judgment - In the fourth quarter, the "anti - involution" policy will support coal prices, but the market may face a supply - demand rebalancing test. A cautious and optimistic attitude is maintained towards the coking coal and coke market [18][167][168]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - The production rhythm of coking coal, coke, and steel, changes in import coal volume, and the transmission of demand negative - feedback pressure [18][170].
铁矿石:交投重心回归现实,短期高位震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed, and macro - disturbances have significantly decreased. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to the real situation. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily rising, the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended but hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is low. Iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [2]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The reference range is 780 - 80 yuan/ton, corresponding to 103 - 105 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Recently, macro - disturbances have weakened. The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations and is defined as a preventive cut, with the expectation of continuous rate cuts weakening. Domestic policies are still in the reserve period. The black - series industrial chain is highly differentiated, with the raw material end generally stronger than the finished product end. The expectation of increasing iron ore supply remains unchanged. Steel mill复产 has driven up hot metal production. Although steel mill profits have fallen to the break - even line, the willingness of steel mills to actively cut production is still insufficient, but pre - holiday restocking is basically over, and the short - term upward driving force has weakened [2]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipments have decreased significantly, and Brazil's shipments have decreased slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the five - week average is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side continues to weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. This period has seen the continuation of steel mill复产 in blast furnaces, mainly due to the regular resumption of production after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang. Domestic demand is higher than the August average (240.5). The daily average hot metal production this period is 242.36 tons (month - on - month increase of 1.34). As steel mill production costs rise and finished product prices weaken, blast furnace profits have declined from a high level and are approaching the break - even level, and the steel mill profitability rate continues to decline. The pre - holiday restocking demand is basically over. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The steel mill inventory level has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to high domestic demand and insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2].
成材:节前周震荡回落,钢价低位运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel prices of finished products are running at a low level, and it is recommended to control the position risk as the National Day holiday approaches. The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Current Situation of the Steel Industry - Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance in the building steel industry was still at a peak. 12 provinces' steel mills were involved in production line maintenance and resumption, with 14 maintenance production lines (1 less than last week) and 4 resumption production lines (6 less than last week). The production affected by production line maintenance was 30.99 tons last week, and it is expected to be 29.33 tons this week [2] Policy and Market Data Changes - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the automobile trade - in policy, and the automobile replacement subsidy policy was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in October 2025 was 29.24 million units, a 9.9% decrease compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [2] Market Performance of Finished Products - Last week, finished products were horizontally consolidated in the early stage and fell significantly on Friday. Rebar and hot - rolled coils both reached recent lows. The fundamentals of the industry changed little last week. Rebar performed better with a slight increase in output, a large increase in apparent demand, and inventory reduction. Hot - rolled coil output and apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Finished products mainly ran at a low level due to weak demand [3]