晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：关注需求端变动 建议仍偏空对待 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 库存方面：钢厂库存水平继续下降，对等关税影响将强化终端需求悲观预期，保持偏低库 存水平是理性的；由于国内钢厂刚性需求以及到港量连续两周回落，本期港口库存水平环比回 落。4 月预计库存整体处于上升态势且库存绝对水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成压力。 原材料： 冯艳成 观点：短期等关税影响边际减弱，关税影响下国内财政政策及货币政策增量预期增强。铁 矿石供需趋于宽松预期不变，短期若出现反弹，仍是较好做空机会，整体价格以区间运行为主。 策略：建议区间操作，2509 合约价格区间 690~720 元/吨。 有色金属：于梦雪 后期关注/风险因素：终端需求变动、主流矿山发运、对等关税影响 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The industrial silicon market is currently experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand. Under the continuous pressure of the external environment, demand has become even more sluggish, and inventory remains at a high level. As a result, silicon prices continue to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotation - The market quotation of industrial silicon declined yesterday, and the futures price dropped significantly. The current prices are as follows: East China oxygenated 553 silicon is at 9,900 - 10,100 yuan/ton, and East China 421 silicon is at 10,400 - 11,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the futures main contract si2505 was 9,020, a decrease of 2.28%. Funds are constantly shifting to far - month contracts. The main contract reduced positions by 12,645 lots, with a position of 133,800 lots and a trading volume of 8.045 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - In the north (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong), the weekly supply of silicon enterprises in production is temporarily stable, but they are under production pressure. The market is sluggish, and the loss of enterprises is widening. Yunnan is still in the dry season, with stable start - up, and the future start - up willingness is average. With the production cuts of the three major downstream industries, demand is continuously weakening, and futures - cash merchants are selling at a small discount on the basis of the basis [1]. Demand Side - The price of polysilicon is weakly stable, and the market has a strong bearish sentiment. Some silicon material enterprises' quotations are loosening. The current prices are: re - feeding material is at 37 - 39 yuan/kg, dense material is at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, cauliflower material is at 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and N - type material is at 41 - 42 yuan/kg [1]. - The spot price of organic silicon DMC continues to decline. The mainstream opening price in the market is referred to as 13,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The game between buyers' price - pressing and sellers' concessions continues, the trading atmosphere is light, the single - transaction volume is generally low, and the market currently lacks a catalyst to break the current deadlock [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, but enterprise sales are poor. End - users purchase on demand, and the finished product inventory is slightly increasing [1]. Inventory On April 16, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 69,806 lots, a single - day decrease of 386 lots, and the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a high level [1].

晨报 成材 成材：宏观和需求双弱 钢价震荡下行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 17 日 逻辑：商务部新闻发言人 16 日表示，中国出口美国的个别商品累计 各种名目的关税已达到 245%。美方将关税工具化、武器化已经到了毫无 理性的地步。对于美方这种毫无意义的关税数字游戏，中方不予理会。国 家统计局：3 月份中国粗钢产量 9284 万吨，同比增 4.6%；1-3 月份产量 25933 万吨，同比增 0.6%。本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2918 元/吨，周环比下调 6 元/吨，与 4 月 16 日普方坯出厂价格 2940 元/ 吨相比，钢厂平 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Tariff policy disturbances persist, and market sentiment changes dominate price movements. Fundamentally, raw material demand is acceptable, and periodic restocking stimulates the price support of coking coal and coke in the spot market. However, the increase in raw material supply is also significant, and the overall supply - demand situation remains loose. Prices are expected to remain in a weak and volatile state [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance**: Tariff policy disturbances persist. The black metal sector showed overall weak and volatile performance yesterday, with coking coal having the largest decline, and the main contract gradually shifting to the 09 contract. In the spot market, the first round of coke price increase was implemented, and the price of Mongolian coal slightly declined [2]. - **Production Data**: In March, China's raw coal production was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The cumulative production in the first quarter was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In March, China's coke production was 41.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. The cumulative production in the first quarter was 123.19 million tons, an increase of 3.428 million tons or 2.86% year - on - year. In March, China's pig iron production was 75.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative pig iron production in the first quarter was 216.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In March, crude steel production was 92.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The cumulative crude steel production in the first quarter was 259.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The increase in raw material supply is higher than that of downstream products, indicating a loose supply - demand relationship for coking coal and coke. Currently, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills has increased to 2.4022 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 154,700 tons. Hot metal production is close to the relatively high level of the same period in previous years. There is positive demand feedback in the short - term industrial chain, and steel mills replenish raw materials. The inventory of upstream coking coal and coke gradually transfers to the downstream, stimulating strong price - support sentiment for raw materials. However, the downstream procurement pace has slowed down month - on - month, and the market feedback suggests that the restocking of steel mills and coking plants is almost over, and the inventory level of coking coal and coke is still higher than the same period [2].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观风险仍存 关注下游支撑 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 17 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间整理。美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，美国经济增长 似乎正在放缓，消费者支出增长温和，为避免关税而抢购进口商品可能会 拖累对国内生产总值 ...

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：需求走弱延续累库，硅价继续走弱 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨日工业硅市场报价弱稳，市场成交不足，下游压价情绪仍在。目 前华东通氧 553#硅在 10000-10100 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 10600-11000 元/吨。 期货端：工业硅期货主力合约 si2505 收盘价为 9170，-2.50%，减仓 807 手， 持含为 14.64 万手，成交额为 71.47 亿元。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：短期全国开工暂时无较大变化，当前行情下，部分南方工厂表示 今年或将不再复产，预计至 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：铝价区间整理 关注下游情况 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：预计价格短期区间调整，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 4 月 16 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 16 日 逻辑：昨日，黑色金属板块整体窄幅震荡运行，关税政策扰动稍有缓 和但并未结束，主力逐步转移至 09 合约。现货方面，山东主流钢厂调整 焦炭采购价，焦价提涨落地，焦炭 05 合约受。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：焦价提涨落地 盘面维持低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 海关总署数据显示，3 月份我国煤进口节奏放缓，3 月进口煤及褐煤 3873.2 万吨，同比下降 264.7 万吨，降幅 6.40%；1-3 月累计进口 11484.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term range adjustment, with increased volatility, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some expected to stop after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished product market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage this year, and weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - On April 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 724,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 50,000 tons from last Monday. Low weekend arrivals led to a fast de - stocking pace [3]. - The arrival of domestic aluminum sources decreased significantly last week, and the ex - warehouse performance strengthened after the sharp decline in aluminum prices, so the fast de - stocking pace of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to continue [3]. - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1% last week. Orders have not recovered significantly, and the volatile aluminum prices have increased downstream enterprises' risk - aversion, resulting in a cold market trading atmosphere [3]. - The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand, and China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal. Infrastructure and new - energy stimulus policies may boost aluminum consumption [3]. - The current market is worried about the global economic situation, overseas risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and aluminum price fluctuations have intensified [3]. - The macro - level tariff policy is highly uncertain, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, with attention needed on market sentiment and downstream purchasing [4].

煤焦：3 月煤炭进口同比下降 价格维持低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 煤焦 海关总署数据显示，3 月份我国煤进口节奏放缓，3 月进口煤及褐煤 3873.2 万吨，同比下降 264.7 万吨，降幅 6.40%；1-3 月累计进口 11484.6 万吨，同比下降 104.7 万吨，降幅 0.9%。4 月份蒙煤进口环比 3 月小幅回 升，但海运煤进口量将受到关税政策扰动而减少。 从基本面来看，目前五大材去库趋势良好，且当前钢厂盈利率尚可， 上周高炉开工延续回升，日均铁水产量增至 240.22 万吨，环比上周增加 1.49 万吨，同比去年增加 15.47 万吨，目前铁水已接近往年同期偏高水 平，在产业链需求正反馈的拉动下，刺激煤焦企业挺价意愿增强，需注意 当前成材需求能否承接高铁水现状。焦煤方面，上周国内煤矿延续增产， 焦精煤日均产量增至 78.2 万吨，环比增加 1.4 万吨，同比增加 4.5 万吨 ...