Workflow
Jian Xin Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
建信期货工业硅日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:34
Group 1: Report Information - Report date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The policy-driven for industrial silicon is limited. After the rebound of spot prices, the profit of production devices turns positive, leading to continuous resumption and increase in production. The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than that in June. The demand increment is still mainly contributed by the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than that in June. The organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a total monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The pressure of supply-demand imbalance has not been effectively alleviated, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price rebounds with reduced positions around 8,200, with the low-level range being tested four times and showing strong support. Overall, it continues to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The closing price of Si2511 is 8,665 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.58%. The trading volume is 622,948 lots, and the open interest is 278,065 lots, a net decrease of 7,975 lots [4]. - Spot price: The price of Sichuan 553 is 8,800 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 is 8,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 is 9,400 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 is 9,150 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market News - On September 10, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,045 lots, a net increase of 90 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export volume of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export volume of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - Data shows that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].
建信期货沥青日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:34
Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price continues to fluctuate with oil prices, but the fluctuation range is expected to be lower than that of oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The BU2511 contract opened at 3,424 yuan/ton, closed at 3,450 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,457 yuan/ton, a low of 3,421 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.88%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots. The BU2512 contract opened at 3,372 yuan/ton, closed at 3,399 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,410 yuan/ton, a low of 3,372 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 2.34 million lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong markets increased, while those in other regions remained generally stable. Some brands had good sales, which was beneficial to the spot price of asphalt [6]. - **Supply Side**: Jiangsu Xinhai will switch production to residual oil again, but Qilu Petrochemical has switched to asphalt production since the 6th. Ningbo Keyuan and Qicheng Petrochemical will maintain stable production after resuming asphalt production. It is expected that the operating rate of asphalt plants will continue to rise [6]. - **Demand Side**: Road projects in North China and surrounding areas will start one after another, resulting in a slight increase in asphalt demand. However, the precipitation in the southern region is more than the same period of the previous year, and the rigid demand remains stable [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Due to the low shipping price of refineries, the shipping volume of social warehouses in East China decreased significantly year-on-year, and the increase in trucking shipments was limited. The destocking speed of social warehouses was slow, and the price continued to be under pressure. The operating load of refineries in East China was generally high, the supply was abundant, and the mainstream trucking price range was temporarily stable [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. After the contract price of Dongyou was raised, it was executed at 3,510 yuan/ton, still within the price range of the South China market. The rigid demand in the South China region weakened periodically, but the market still had positive expectations for the peak-season demand, and the quotes of social warehouses of traders remained stable [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily operating rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, social inventory of asphalt, factory inventory of asphalt, and asphalt warehouse receipts. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18]
建信期货棉花日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:34
Report Information - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Domestically, the downstream demand in the domestic market lacks strength, the weekly start - up of the yarn end remains stable, and the profit has not been significantly repaired. Externally, the tariff suppression effect on the export market is gradually emerging, and the cumulative year - on - year export of textiles and clothing has turned from positive to negative. [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,286 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic cotton market has different basis quotes in different regions. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average and weaker than the same period in previous years. The price is mainly stable, with partial preferential sales. The start - up of spinning enterprises has little change, and the overall start - up level in the inland area is not high. The demand in the all - cotton grey fabric market is weakly stable, and the price of pure - cotton cloth is negotiated according to the quantity. The order volume of large - scale weaving factories is average. The home textile factories report an increase in sales volume month - on - month, but the order continuity is poor, and the price is still difficult to rise. [7] - **Overseas Market**: The weekly good - to - excellent rate of US cotton has slightly rebounded, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level with limited overall changes. Recently, affected by the heavy rain in the main cotton - producing areas of India, the external market has some support at the low level, and the market is concerned about the adjustment of the September USDA supply - demand report. [8] 2. Industry News - In August 2025, China's total textile and clothing exports were 26.539 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative total textile and clothing exports were 197.275 billion US dollars (197.616 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In August 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.393 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. From January to August 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 94.513 billion US dollars (93.042 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In August 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 14.146 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. From January to August 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 102.761 billion US dollars (104.574 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price index of Chinese cotton, spot price, futures price, basis change, spreads between different futures contracts, commercial inventory, industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [17][18][27]
建信期货生猪日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:34
Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 10th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 13,400 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,315 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,362 lots to 194,143 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. The slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the long term, the slaughter before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly declined, and second - fattening was mainly in a wait - and - see state, providing weak support for prices. With the start of schools in various regions and the cooling weather in some areas, terminal consumption by residents may increase. The orders of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased, the slaughter progress was faster, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased. On September 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,700 heads, basically a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 95,000 heads [10]. Overall Situation - Spot: With the start of schools and the cooling weather, terminal demand has increased, but the supply pressure of slaughter is still relatively greater. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and prices remain weak [10]. - Futures: The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and the supply - demand margin may improve. However, the current spot supply pressure is still large, and they are mainly fluctuating weakly due to the drag of the weak spot market [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [11][13] Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of September 4th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [16]. - On the week of September 4th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin [16]. - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [16]. - On the week of September 5th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, an increase of 2.00 percentage points from the previous week and 5.54 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rate within the week fluctuated in the range of 30.18 - 31.75 [16]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% [16].
贵金属日评-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:33
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price has started a new round of upward trend, and this rally may continue until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of gains due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intra - day Market**: As of March 2025, the US non - farm payrolls data for the past year was revised down by 911,000, indicating the weakness of the US job market before Trump's tariff policy. This increases the pressure on the Fed to restart the rate - cutting process. After the negative news was digested, the market shifted its focus to the US inflation data for August. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell but remained relatively strong overall. On the 10th Asian session, the London gold price rebounded slightly to $3,650 per ounce. The mainstream market expectation is that the overall CPI and core CPI in the US in August will increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest the over - valuation pressure. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cutting process. Under Trump's pressure, the Fed's rate - cutting pace may be faster than required by the employment and inflation situation, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, safe - haven demand, liquidity premium and currency - pricing factors jointly pushed the gold price above the $3,500 per - ounce mark [5]. 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D contracts, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Israel launched an air strike on a Hamas leader in Qatar on Tuesday, escalating its military operations in the Middle East. This action has received strong negative responses worldwide, and the UN Secretary - General has condemned it [17]. - Apple launched a series of upgraded new iPhone models, including the thinner and lighter iPhone Air. It maintained stable prices despite the impact of Trump's tariff hikes on company profits. It also released the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, new - version AirPods Pro wireless earphones, and introduced a blood pressure monitoring function in the new - version Apple Watch [17]. - US President Trump stated that the US government is continuing to negotiate with India to resolve trade barriers between the two countries. According to the Financial Times, Trump has urged the EU to impose a 100% tariff on China and India as a strategy to pressure Russian President Putin [17].
白糖日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:33
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market Quotes - New York raw sugar futures continued to rebound on Monday. The main October contract closed up 1.34% at 15.84 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main December contract closed up 1.24% at $463.60 per ton. The rebound of sugar prices is more of a technical retracement [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract oscillated at a low level. The 01 contract closed at 5,535 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan or 0.25%, with an increase of 581 contracts. Domestic spot prices in production areas remained flat, with Nanning sugar quoted at 5,940 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5,770 yuan [8]. Futures Contracts Details | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR601 | 5,535 yuan/ton | 14 yuan | 0.25% | 389,187 contracts | 581 contracts | | SR605 | 5,507 yuan/ton | 4 yuan | 0.07% | 36,793 contracts | 307 contracts | | US Sugar 10 | 15.84 cents/pound | 0.21 cents | 1.34% | 286,293 contracts | -22,382 contracts | | US Sugar 03 | 16.49 cents/pound | 0.23 cents | 1.41% | 351,758 contracts | 15,812 contracts | [7] Group 3: Industry News - The German Sugar Industry Association (WVZ) estimated that Germany's beet refined sugar production in the 2025/26 season will drop 4.9% to 4.4 million tons from 4.63 million tons in the previous season due to a 9.3% reduction in beet planting area to about 350,100 hectares. The average sugar content of beets may rise from 16.3% to 17.2% [9]. - Brazil exported 769,037.60 tons of sugar in the first week of September, with a daily average export volume of 153,807.52 tons, a 17% decrease from the daily average in September last year [9]. - The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia is expected to start production around September 12. The sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 season may be adjusted downwards but is estimated to be over 700,000 tons. The first sugar factory in Xinjiang may postpone its start - up to around National Day. The sugar production in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season is still expected to be around the record - high level of 800,000 tons [9][10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and trading positions of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16][19]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250911
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:33
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated September 11, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers such as Liu Youran (pulp), Li Jie (crude oil and asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (industrial silicon and polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [3][4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,284 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,700 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new August wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June prices. In July, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1%. In July 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. In August, China's total pulp imports were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 7.8% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.52% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with the decline slightly expanding [8] - On the demand side, the new round of publication bidding for offset paper has not started, and the listing price on the first day was lower than expected, with large short - term fluctuations. The overall shipping and supply pressure in the pulp and paper market remains high, the peak demand season is not prosperous, the supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the market is mainly in a low - level volatile operation [8] Group 4: Industry News - On September 10, after the resumption of production at Meilun Chemical Pulp Mill and Factories 5, 6, and 9, the Shouguang base made new progress. On September 8, the tissue paper production line of Factory 7 was successfully started. The factory is equipped with two international - class production lines, with core equipment imported from Andritz in Austria and Valmet in Finland. The paper machine has a width of 5,600 mm and an operating speed of 2,000 m/min, with advanced processes such as integrated double - layer headboxes and shoe presses, and a full - set of automated control systems. It can efficiently produce boxed facial tissues, roll papers, etc., and all quality indicators reach international advanced levels. As of now, the operating production lines at the Shouguang base are running smoothly, and the remaining production lines are planned to start operation before September 10, when the Shouguang base will fully resume full - load production capacity [9] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those related to import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][28][32]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250910
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 02:04
日期 2025 年 9 月 10 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 每日报告 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 数据来源:大商所网站,建信期货研究发展部 | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2601 | 1,032,003 | 1,161,816 | -20,727 | -1,723 | -19,004 | -1.73% ...
建信期货铜期货日报-20250910
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 01:57
行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 10 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 研究员:彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1:沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2:伦铜走势及价差 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 沪铜震荡偏弱,总持仓与总成交均下降,盘面 back 结构也下降,现货涨价 20 至 79890,现货升水跌 40 至 90,日内销售情绪依旧较高,进口货源商积极出货令升 水再度走跌。现货进口窗口趋于关闭,近期沪伦比值重心下移,但卖方报盘坚挺 令洋山铜仓单和提单溢价上涨,LME 社库继续去库 550 吨,但 LME0-3contango 结 构 ...
碳酸锂期货日报-20250910
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 01:52
碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 9 月 10 日 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 研究员:彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1:碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2:碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货下跌,总持仓和总成交均下降,市场交投热情一般,午后锂价跌幅扩 大,现货转为对盘面升水,日内现货持平 74600,本周随着盘面价格向上,下游 采购活动较上周略有放缓。澳矿继续持平 850,锂云母持平 1865,外购锂辉石生 产亏损扩大至 2239,锂云母生产亏损持平 7348,矿商挺价下盐厂利润受损。当前 主力再度回到 7.3 万下方水平,在旺季去库的趋势下现货 ...