Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - end demand expectation is poor, the medium - and long - term operating center is declining, the cost support is loosening, and the demand at the initial stage of recovery is insufficient to support raw materials, so the market is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement of consumption in September [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: The opening prices of plastic 2601, 2605, and 2509 were 7222, 7235, and 7142 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 7209, 7220, and 7145 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.33%, - 0.32%, and - 0.28% respectively. The trading volume of plastic 2601 was 218,000 lots, and the positions increased by 16,282 lots to 533,469 lots [5][6]. - **PP Futures**: The opening prices of PP2601, 2605, and 2509 were 6952, 6977, and 6773 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 6939, 6961, and 6805 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.17%, - 0.17%, and - 0.40% respectively. The positions of PP2601 increased by 9293 lots to 624,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: For PP, the impact of maintenance is weakening, new production capacity is continuously released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream is in the transition stage between peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall recovery trend is not good. For PE, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the short - term maintenance loss is increasing, the new supply is slow, and the downstream agricultural film is expected to drive social inventory reduction [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 655,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.96%. The inventory in the same period last year was 790,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market prices were partially weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7120 - 7450, 7200 - 7650, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6680 - 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream product cost pressure increased, the market trading atmosphere was average [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to be weakly adjusted. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6700 - 6870, 6720 - 6940, and 6700 - 6930 yuan/ton respectively [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][16]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Main Researchers: Liu Youran (Pulp), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [3][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp futures 01 contract rose 1.53% overall. The pulp market has continuous supply pressure, weak demand during the peak season, and the supply - demand contradiction remains unimproved, with prices mainly fluctuating at a low level [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Pulp Futures Market**: The 01 contract of pulp futures had a previous settlement price of 5226 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5306 yuan/ton, rising 1.53%. The 09 contract and 05 contract also had corresponding price changes [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply - demand Situation**: Arauco's new August pulp offer was stable compared to June. The chemical pulp shipment volume of 20 major pulp - producing countries in July increased by 7.3% year - on - year. EU port pulp inventory in July decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August decreased by 7.8% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.07% month - on - month. The cumulative profit of the papermaking and paper products industry in July decreased by 21.9% year - on - year, with a slightly expanding decline. The demand for offset paper was in a wait - and - see state, and the pulp and paper market had continuous supply pressure and weak demand [8] 3.2. Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation approved and released 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field, which is of great significance for standardizing production, improving product quality, and promoting the healthy development of the industry [9] 3.3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]

Report Information - Report Title: “集运指数日报” [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core View - The SCFIS has fallen below 1600 points for eight consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the second half of September have been further reduced. The prices show a smooth downward trend in the off - season, with a larger - than - expected decline. The main 10 - contract is still at a certain discount, and the previous rebound may be due to the expectation of increased National Day blank sailings. However, the blank sailing scale this year is not significantly larger than last year, and the overall shipping capacity has increased, so the boosting effect may be limited. There may be low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The SCFIS has dropped below 1600 points for eight consecutive weeks. Shipping prices on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route of major shipping companies have decreased significantly. The main 10 - contract is at a discount, and the previous rebound was due to the expectation of increased National Day blank sailings, but the boosting effect may be weak [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - **China's Export Container Transport Market**: From September 1 to 5, the market remained stable, with different routes showing different price trends. The comprehensive index was stable. China's economic sentiment continued to expand in August, with the manufacturing sector slightly improving and the non - manufacturing sector accelerating expansion [9]. - **European Routes**: Eurozone's July retail sales decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, lower than expected. The transportation demand was weak, and the spot market booking prices continued to decline. On September 5, the Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate was $1315/TEU, down 11.2% from the previous period [9][10]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with freight rates continuing to fall. On September 5, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port freight rate was $1971/TEU, down 8.1% from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: The US manufacturing index in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. The transportation demand was stable, and the spot market booking prices continued to rise. On September 5, the Shanghai - US West and US East basic port freight rates were $2189/FEU and $3073/FEU respectively, up 13.8% and 7.2% from the previous period [10]. - **International Situation**: The situation in the Middle East has become tense again. There are issues related to the cease - fire in Gaza, and some Western countries' plans to recognize Palestine may have an impact on Israel. Also, multiple international submarine cables in the Red Sea have been cut [10]. 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From September 1 to 8, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 1773.6 to 1566.46, a decrease of 11.7%; the SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1013.9 to 980.48, a decrease of 3.3% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes charts of container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][18]

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but there are still limited incremental positives. The bond market has become less sensitive to the stock market since late August, and as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the stock market's suppression of the bond market may further ease. From a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019 due to government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, supply - side disturbances are weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies are unlikely to be implemented. Overall, the suppression of the bond market may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough. In the short term, this week is a period of intensive economic data release, and economic data is expected to show moderate recovery, with the main focus on the stock - bond seesaw and the expectation of central bank bond - buying [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The strength of the A - share market suppressed long - term bonds, while loose funds supported short - term bonds. Most yields of major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.8010%, down 1.4bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank increased its open - market operations, resulting in a stable and then looser funding situation. There were 2126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 2920 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 794 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable and then loosened. Short - term funding rates mostly declined slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 5.69bp to 1.3706%, the 7 - day rate rising 0.5bp to 1.4813%, and medium - and long - term funds remaining stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.6% [10]. 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year due to a higher base and weak food prices. Core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [13]. - **Policy Statements**: The National Development and Reform Commission aims to better coordinate domestic economic work and international trade struggles, maintain policy continuity and stability, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. The Ministry of Finance plans to make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade, foster new growth drivers, improve people's livelihoods, and prevent and resolve risks [13][14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 8, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and position changes [6]. - **Monetary Market**: Data on the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates are presented [28][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts support the price of gold, but the slight rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward momentum of gold and silver. The current round of gold price increase may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The incident of a Russian drone being shot down by NATO in Poland raises geopolitical risks, and the 0.1% month - on - month decline in the US August PPI strengthens the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The London gold price slightly回调 to around $3630 per ounce, waiting for the US August CPI data. The market generally expects the US August overall CPI and core CPI to increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively. Gold prices fluctuated sideways from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure, and started a new round of upward trend in early September [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, multiple factors drove the gold price to break through the $3500 mark, starting a new upward trend [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 833.34, down 0.36%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9829, up 0.04%; the Gold T + D closed at 826.50, down 0.39%; the Silver T + D closed at 9774, down 0.10% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Event**: Poland shot down a suspected Russian drone in its airspace with the support of NATO, which is the first time a Western military alliance member has opened fire during the Russia - Ukraine war. Russia's Ministry of Defense stated that it had no intention of hitting any targets in Poland [17]. - **Trade Policy**: Mexico will raise tariffs on cars from China and other Asian countries to 50% to protect domestic employment. The EU is unlikely to impose high tariffs on India or China at Trump's request, but plans to include banks in two Central Asian countries and Chinese refineries in the 19th round of sanctions [17][18]. - **Economic Data**: The US August PPI unexpectedly dropped 0.1% month - on - month. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again based on the weak producer inflation data [17].

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an industrial silicon daily report dated September 12, 2025, issued by the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different sectors such as crude oil, PTA/MEG, industrial silicon/polysilicon, etc [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8740 yuan/ton, up 2.46%. The trading volume was 347,619 lots, and the open interest was 287,771 lots, with a net increase of 9,706 lots [4] - Spot prices vary by region: Sichuan 553 is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 is 8550 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 is 9400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 is 9300 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 is 9600 yuan/ton [4] - The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than in June. The demand increase is mainly from the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than in June. The total monthly demand is 360,000 tons. The imbalance between supply and demand persists, and the market lacks inventory reduction drivers. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price showed a fluctuating trend. The Si2511 contract had specific closing price, trading volume, open interest and its change data [4] - **Spot Prices**: Different regions have different spot prices for different grades of industrial silicon [4] - **Future Outlook**: Forecasts on production, demand, and price trends, indicating continued supply - demand imbalance and price stability with wide - range fluctuations [4] 2. Market News - On September 11, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 50,093 lots, a net increase of 48 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In July 2025, China's metal silicon exports were 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, the total exports were 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, the lowest in 2025 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the faster - than - expected news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, and the price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although there is uncertainty about the resumption of production, market sentiment improved slightly. The spot price center shifted downwards, and downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points. In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Affected by the news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 68,600. The price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although an insider said there was uncertainty about the resumption, the market sentiment improved limitedly, and the main contract barely stood above 70,000 at the end of the session. The spot price center moved down, with electric carbon dropping 1,150 to 73,450. Downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points due to rigid procurement demand during the peak season [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Australian ore dropped 45 to 805 US dollars per ton, and lithium mica ore dropped 50 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The profit of salt factories improved, with the production loss of salt factories purchasing lithium mica narrowing to 7,321 yuan per ton and that of salt factories purchasing lithium spodumene narrowing to 1,507 yuan per ton [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the implementation of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine, and it is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Galan Lithium's Project Progress**: Australian Galan Lithium announced that the first - phase construction of its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) lithium salt project in Argentina has made significant progress. The design of Pool 4 has been completed, which will support an operation of 4,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent. The construction of a nanofiltration plant in Sydney is in progress. The project has a mid - term goal of achieving an annual output of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially increasing to 60,000 tons in 2030 [12]. - **Ningde Times' Mine Resumption**: On September 10, it was learned that Ningde Times' subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. held a "Jianxiawo Lithium Mine Resumption Work Meeting" on September 9 to discuss the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine. The goal is to complete the resumption of production by November this year, but it is uncertain whether this goal can be achieved, and it may be adjusted according to the actual progress. Investors are advised to view market news rationally [12][13].

Report Information - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main polysilicon contract continued to oscillate weakly. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.40%. The trading volume was 411,979 lots, and the open interest was 137,072 lots, a net decrease of 5,908 lots [4] Outlook - The stable spot price provides rigid support for the lower limit of the futures price (the average spot price of re-feeding materials is 49,000 yuan/ton). The policy has a pulsed impact, and the market has recently entered a policy vacuum period. The futures market continued to reduce trading volume and open interest, and the number of warehouse receipts increased again. The selling pressure at high levels is obvious. After the second breakthrough failed, the futures price entered a high-level range oscillation. The market is waiting to see the follow-up policy support [4] Market News - On September 10, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,370 lots (22,110 tons), an increase of 500 lots (1,500 tons) from the previous trading day [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, the lowest in 2025 [5]

Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Core View - Geopolitical situation has not affected crude oil supply, and the market is calmer after the Israel-Iran conflict. OPEC+ continues to increase production, which is marginally bearish, so the outlook for oil prices is mainly bearish [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $61.80, closing at $62.19, with a high of $62.98, a low of $61.73, a rise of 0.93%, and a trading volume of 12.62 million lots. Brent's opening price was $66.23, closing at $66.53, with a high of $67.38, a low of $66.12, a rise of 0.77%, and a trading volume of 30.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 483 yuan/barrel, closing at 486.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 489.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 481.9 yuan/barrel, a rise of 0.58%, and a trading volume of 10.34 million lots [6] - **News**: Israel raided Qatar to target Hamas leaders, but oil prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. OPEC+ members submitted a new compensation production cut plan, reducing this year's production cut and strengthening that of 2026, with an overall increase in the total production cut. Kazakhstan's production cut will increase sharply after February 2026, but its implementation is questionable, which is bearish for the near - term supply side. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October to gradually lift the 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreed in April 2023. The production increase rate has slowed down, and it is expected to take one year to fully reach the 1.65 million barrels per day increase. Since the market is in a supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, the production increase is still marginally bearish for the oil market fundamentals [6][7] Industry News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that more sanctions should be imposed on Russia, including accelerating the phase - out of Russian fossil fuels and considering sanctions on the oil shadow fleet and third countries [8] - Deutsche Bank expects the WTI crude oil price to remain at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent (the previous forecast for 2026 was $67) [8] - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the downside risk due to increased market supply surplus is rising [8] - According to the Financial Times, Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [8] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Bloomberg, and Wind [11][12][15]