Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and regard it as a rebound for now. Rapeseed oil has the largest increase in the near - term due to continuous destocking, concentrated cargo rights, and strong basis quotes. The estimated decline in domestic soybean crushing volume in Q1 will lead to a stronger basis for soybean oil, and the futures price has strong support at 7,800 - 8,000. For palm oil, the production decline in December has been confirmed, and the export volume from December 1 to 25 in Malaysia increased by 1.6% - 3.0% month - on - month. However, due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is hard to sustain, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 9,000 [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: Opened at 8,504, closed at 8,658, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 358,771 and an open interest of 388,850, a decrease of 119 [7] - P2601: Opened at 8,520, closed at 8,646, up 1.34% with a trading volume of 7,236 and an open interest of 6,178, a decrease of 4,169 [7] - Y2605: Opened at 7,802, closed at 7,878, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 209,400 and an open interest of 619,542, a decrease of 16,826 [7] - Y2601: Opened at 8,046, closed at 8,150, up 1.07% with a trading volume of 6,782 and an open interest of 7,670, a decrease of 5,927 [7] - O1605: Opened at 9,036, closed at 9,086, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 195,918 and an open interest of 199,248, an increase of 7,865 [7] - Ol601: Opened at 9,662, closed at 9,714, up 2.50% with a trading volume of 3,475 and an open interest of 7,412, a decrease of 1,062 [7] - **Basis Price**: - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: 05 + 800 in January - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis: Spot: Y05 + 510; February - March: Y2605 + 480; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300. Grade 3 soybean oil: 05 + 450, green soybean oil: 05 + 300 - Dongguan palm oil quotes: 18 - degree: 05 + 200 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree: 05 + 170 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree: 05 + 70 (Dongguan and Guangzhou warehouses), 28 - degree: 05 + 50 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Argentina Weather**: A US meteorologist said that Argentina may face drought in January, especially during La Nina. Reduced rainfall from late January to February may cut soybean production, depending on temperature forecasts. So far, the weather in Argentina has been good, and crop growth is better than normal, but concerns may intensify in January [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that from December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month, with a 11.66% decline in Peninsular Malaysia, 2.12% in Sabah, 0.75% in Sarawak, and 1.73% in East Malaysia [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: - ITS data showed that from December 1 - 25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from November 1 - 25. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same period last month [9][10] - AmSpec data showed a 3.0% increase to 1,017,897 tons - SGS data showed a 41.0% increase to 824,276 tons [18] 3.3 Data Overview - **Domestic Imported Soybean Inventory**: As of the end of Week 52 in 2025, the total inventory was 6.847 million tons, a decrease of 0.875 million tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 5.818 million tons, a decrease of 0.887 million tons from the previous week [18]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Eggs [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The spot price of eggs has been stable in recent days after rising before the New Year's Day. The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the main contract is gradually shifting to 03. The near - month contracts are significantly reducing positions. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - holiday spot price performance. If the current oscillation continues, short - sellers may return in mid - January, focusing on the 02 and 03 contracts after the holiday. The far - month contracts are generally bullish due to the logic of production capacity reduction, and the strategy is to make rolling operations after a decline [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: For egg futures, the 2601 contract closed at 3072 with a 0.03% increase, trading 12,547 lots and having a position of 21,414 with a decrease of 22,102; the 2602 contract closed at 2938 with a 0.03% decrease, trading 122,709 lots and having a position of 128,794 with a decrease of 13,173; the 2603 contract closed at 2962 with a 0.34% decrease, trading 115,703 lots and having a position of 208,380 with an increase of 10,677. The average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.24 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [7][8] - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the post - holiday spot price performance. If the oscillation continues, short - sellers may return in mid - January, mainly focusing on the 02 and 03 contracts after the holiday. For far - month contracts, adopt a strategy of rolling operations after a decline [8] 2. Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous growth. The year - on - year increase was 5.3%, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9] - Replenishment: In November 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly increasing from 39.15 million in October but a significant 13.5% decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] - Culling Volume: The culling volume has been decreasing recently. From the three weeks up to December 18, the national culling volume was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous decline [9] - Culling Age: As of December 18, the average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [10] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of eggs in December, the basis of the 12 - contract eggs, the 12 - 02 spread of eggs, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, and the layer farming profit. The data sources are Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Investment Center, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [10][12][17]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, although the output in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly year-on-year, the overall supply pressure is not large due to the resilient demand for cotton raw materials from downstream and the pre - sales smoothing the pressure during the listing period. The hedging pressure is also not strong. The rumor about the decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season has been confirmed, but the actual decline is still awaited. Downstream spinning mills' operation rate has decreased slightly, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large. The market is waiting for the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling situation. In the short term, the bullish sentiment has been released, and it will mainly show a contracting and oscillating trend approaching the holiday [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a contracting and oscillating trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,541 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked cotton of 41 - 31 grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 were mostly above 15,500 yuan on a legal weight basis. The low - basis quotes for machine - picked 31 - grade, double 29, double 30, and impurity within 3 in Kashgar were CF05 + 800 - 900, and those in Beijiang were mostly above 1,000, with a small amount below 1,000. The low - basis quotes for 41 - grade were mainly between 900 - 1,000, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - The sales of the pure - cotton yarn market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand and good sales of combed high - count yarn. The actual transaction price increase of some conventional products in the inland was limited, and the downstream market was resistant to price increases. Most spinning mills were still fulfilling previous orders. The sales of the cotton grey fabric market were still dull, and it was difficult to raise the fabric prices. Currently, weaving mills had insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered ones [7] 3.2 Industry News - According to Conab, as of December 27, the cotton planting rate in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% last week, 25.2% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 15.6% [9] - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, near the end of the year, the purchase of cotton seeds in Xinjiang had ended, while there was still a small amount of sales in the inland. The purchase price remained stable between 6.2 - 7.2 yuan/kg. As of December 28, a total of 1,088 cotton processing enterprises had undergone notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1,013 processing enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 processing enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [14][17][20]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of industrial silicon remains in a loose pattern, and the fundamental single - side driving force is still limited. The spot price has a slight increase with a stable center, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate around the spot price [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price rose first and then fell. The SI2605 contract price was 8915 yuan/ton, with a 1.08% increase. The trading volume was 366,201 lots, and the open interest was 216,220 lots, with a net decrease of 4,845 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 8,678 lots, and the short positions had a net decrease of 6,136 lots [4] - The spot price was slightly adjusted upwards. The Sichuan 553 price was 9,300 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8,950 yuan/ton; the Sichuan 421 price was 9,900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9,550 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,550 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Outlook - The expected monthly output in December is about 360,000 tons, and the weekly output is at a seasonal low. Short - term maintenance of northwest devices has led to a slight increase in the spot price. On the demand side, the weekly operating load rate of silicone monomers is 69.2%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from last week; the weekly output of polysilicon remains at 26,300 tons, unchanged from the previous week [4] 3.3 Market News - On December 30th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the GZEE was 10,027 lots, an increase of 120 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In the 4th week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a 1.30% decrease week - on - week and a 24.08% increase year - on - year [5] - In the 4th week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a 1.68% increase week - on - week and a 9.35% increase year - on - year [5] - The polysilicon quotation's upward exploration differs from actual transactions. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish stocks. However, with industry self - discipline and policy support, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and it is expected that the spot transaction price of polysilicon will likely remain stable in the short term [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the bond market is greatly affected by sentiment. The game of expectations for interest rate cuts and long - term bond supply causes futures to fluctuate but difficult to break through. With the potential pressure of the stock market's Spring Festival rally on the bond market, there are many short - term negative factors. However, the cross - year capital market is expected to remain loose, supporting short - term bonds. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of shorting long - term and going long short - term bonds. In the long run, after continuous adjustments, bond interest rates have returned to a reasonable level, and there is room for easing next year. The first quarter may face multiple negative factors and provide good allocation opportunities, followed by potential upside for long - term futures contracts [11][12] 3. Summary by Section **3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions** - **Market Conditions**: Market sentiment recovered, and 30 - year long - term bonds rebounded after a sharp decline the previous day [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.2bp to 1.86% [9] - **Funding Market**: Inter - bank funding costs increased due to the year - end. The central bank net injected 253.2 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The overnight DR rate fluctuated around 1.24%, and the 7 - day funding rate rose 9.3bp to 1.69%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell 3bp to 1.6% [10] - **Conclusion**: Short - term negative factors are numerous, but the cross - year capital market is expected to support short - term bonds. Long - term bonds may have good allocation opportunities after the first - quarter negative factors are digested [11][12] **3.2 Industry News** - China will be the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency. The new digital RMB measurement framework will be launched on January 1, 2026 [13] - China will implement import provisional tax rates on 935 commodities in 2026, and the number of tariff items will increase to 8972 [13] - From January to November, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 75.63 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1%, and the total profit was 3.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The asset - liability ratio at the end of November was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [13] - Market supervision authorities will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement and platform economy regulation in 2026 [14] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed high - quality urban renewal, and many places have included it in their "15th Five - Year Plan" [14] - Shenzhen's "15th Five - Year Plan" suggests promoting real estate investment in affordable housing and improved commercial housing [14] **3.3 Data Overview** - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data such as the opening price, closing price, settlement price, and trading volume of various treasury bond futures contracts on December 30 are provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank repurchase rates and SHIBOR is presented, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [23][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves is presented, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [36]

行业 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current decline in soda ash production continues, but the overall industry fluctuation is limited, and the supply pressure has not been significantly alleviated. Although demand has improved to some extent, it remains weak. With the end of subsequent maintenance, supply is expected to gradually recover, and inventory still faces accumulation pressure. The supply - demand pattern in the float glass market is weak, with only small - scale restocking, and the terminal real estate industry has not shown substantial improvement. In the short term, the price of soda ash still faces suppression around 1200 yuan and may rise and then fall. For glass, the market weakness persists, with continuous supply - side pressure, seasonal weakening of demand, high overall inventory, and slow follow - up of terminal demand. The contradiction between high inventory and weak demand restricts the market, and the short - term market is still under pressure [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On December 30, 2025, the main soda ash contract SA605 rebounded significantly, closing at 1213 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.19% from the previous day, with a reduction of 38,262 lots in positions during the day. This week, soda ash production was 721,000 tons, a 1.9% decrease from the previous week. The heavy and light soda ash production decreased by 8,000 tons and 7,000 tons respectively. The shipment rate was 108.54%, a 9.2% increase from the previous week. The total factory inventory was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from last week, but the light soda ash inventory increased slightly. The daily production of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained at 155,000 tons and 88,700 tons respectively, basically unchanged from the previous week. It is recommended to be cautious about the current rebound and continue to pay attention to subsequent supply - demand marginal changes and relevant policy guidance [7][8] Glass - On December 30, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 showed a bottom - hunting and rebound oscillating trend. The glass market weakness continues, with continuous supply - side pressure, high capacity utilization, and seasonal weakening of demand due to the off - season in the construction industry. The overall inventory is still high, with obvious regional differentiation. Terminal demand follows up slowly, and market sentiment is cautious. The short - term market is still under pressure, and it is necessary to continuously pay attention to subsequent supply - demand marginal changes and policy trends [9][10] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][20]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Trend: Copper prices rose and then fell. SHFE copper reached over 100,000 yuan. Afternoon dives in silver, platinum, and palladium dragged copper prices back. Spot prices rose 3000 to 100,740 yuan, and the spot discount narrowed 10 to 330 yuan. Social inventories increased 2.12 to 21.48 tons over last Thursday. Spot import losses were 1648 yuan, and the export window was close to opening [9] - Operation Suggestion: The fundamental outlook is positive in the medium - term but weighed down by the short - term spot market. Copper prices are mainly driven by macro sentiment with expected increased volatility. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [9] Group 3: Industry News - Norfolk Metals: After approval at the 2025 November annual general meeting, the company issued and completed the placement of 760,209 fully - paid ordinary shares to Transcendence. As of Q4 2025, it had invested over 3 million Australian dollars in its Caremn copper project since June 2025 [9] - Goldman Sachs Forecast: Current copper prices reflect the expected US refined copper tariff (expected to be announced in mid - 2026 and implemented in 2027). The 2026 average price is forecasted at 11,400 US dollars/ton. In 2026, overseas inventories are expected to drop by 450,000 tons, but the US may release about 1.5 million tons of strategic stockpiles in the second half of 2026, pressuring prices down [9] - Aeris Resources: The company received official approval from the New South Wales Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure to develop its Constellation copper - gold project in the Cobar Basin. The project has proven and probable ore reserves of 2.3 million tons with a copper grade of 2.0%, gold grade of 0.6 g/ton, and silver grade of 3 g/ton. The total mineral resource is 7.6 million tons [9][10]

Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The short - term fundamentals of the crude oil market are neutral, and the market continues to trade based on geopolitical situations. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in excess, short - selling positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $58.35, closing price was $56.93, with a high of $58.88, a low of $56.65, a decline of 2.43%, and a trading volume of 14.83 million lots. Brent's opening price was $61.9, closing price was $60.33, with a high of $62.26, a low of $60.16, a decline of 2.38%, and a trading volume of 16.06 million lots. SC's opening price was 441.5 yuan/barrel, closing price was 434.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 441.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 431.9 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.94%, and a trading volume of 7.32 million lots [6]. - **News**: US - Ukraine leaders met. Trump said significant progress was made in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, covering nearly 95% of key issues, and the situation was close to reaching an agreement. The key difference lies in the territorial issue. The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, directly affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected [6]. - **Data**: Weekly data shows that crude oil inventories continued to decline, refinery crude oil input reached the highest level in the same period in 5 years, while refined oil performance was relatively weak, with continuous inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel, which is not conducive to maintaining high - level refinery operations. In the medium term, oversupply will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of a new low [6]. 2. Industry News - Iranian President Pezeshkian warned the US and Israel not to launch new military attacks, or Iran will respond firmly. Trump said that the US is getting closer to reaching a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and there are one or two difficult issues in the negotiation. Ukraine may need a referendum or parliamentary approval for relevant plans [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][13][21][23]