Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货铜期货日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:04
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The short - term spot demand supports copper prices, but the macro - face has a large impact. With the continued selling of US stocks, rising Japanese bond yields, and upcoming important US data, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper stopped falling. The selling of US stocks continued, but the A - share market stopped falling during the day, and market risk - aversion sentiment cooled. The spot price rose 110 to 86,115, and the spot premium rose 15 to 85. The decline of copper prices to 86,000 stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. The LME0 - 3 contango structure expanded to 35, and the domestic spot import loss was around 270. With the narrowing of the import loss, the supply of imported goods is expected to increase [10] Group 5: Industry News - From January to September 2025, the production of major global copper enterprises showed differentiation. BHP's cumulative production in the first three quarters was 1.0509 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; Rio Tinto's copper mine production was 0.5377 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.03%; MMG's production was 0.3455 million metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.84%. Freeport - McMoRan's production decreased by 8.8% year - on - year, and Glencore's production decreased by 23.54% year - on - year. Most companies maintained their annual production guidance, but Codelco lowered its annual target from 1.34 - 1.37 million tons to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons due to a safety accident [11] - Zhejiang Kefei Technology Co., Ltd. signed an EPC contract for the SHOMBERWA 60kt/a copper smelting and chemical project with LEDYA Group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project will process 2 million tons of high - grade copper - cobalt sulfide ore annually, with a planned annual production of 60,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supporting blister copper and sulfuric acid production systems will be built in two phases, ultimately reaching an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of blister copper (Cu98%) and 180,000 tons of industrial sulfuric acid (98% H₂SO₄), with expansion space reserved [11][12] - Freeport - McMoRan plans to restart the production of the Grasberg copper - gold mine in Indonesia by July next year. The mine was shut down in September this year due to a fatal accident. It is expected that the total production of copper and gold of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, about 1 billion pounds of copper and 90 ounces of gold, and production is expected to increase from 2026 to 2027 [12]
建信期货原油日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price declined. The average price in the main production areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract dropped 0.53% [8] - Last week, the spot market weakened again. The prices in the two - lake powder egg areas, the main force of the previous rebound, gradually declined, while the supply - demand of northern red eggs was relatively balanced with stable prices. The market sales returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there won't be a large - scale dumping like in the rainy and summer seasons. It is expected that the egg price will have a narrow - range adjustment at a low level this week [8] - In terms of futures, due to the short - term downturn of the spot market, there was a certain decline this week. The near - month contracts had a larger decline as they were approaching delivery, while the far - month contracts were relatively firm due to the expectation of inventory reduction [8] - Fundamentally, the layer inventory in late October decreased on a monthly basis for the first time this year, indicating that the poor breeding profit has gradually affected the supply side. Also, observing the year - on - year data of the replenishment volume in the past four months, it is expected that the layer inventory may continue to decline slightly in the medium term [8] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, the market is considered to be in a low - level shock. The low spot price may last for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread between near - and far - month spreads [8] Contract Details | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601 | 3197 | 3180 | 3194 | 3157 | 3180 | - 17 | - 0.53% | 151302 | 208381 | 195915 | | 2602 | 2993 | 2968 | 2979 | 2948 | 2971 | - 22 | - 0.74% | 37394 | 124504 | 1313 | | 2512 | 2950 | 2922 | 2936 | 2902 | 2928 | - 22 | - 0.75% | 45650 | 42097 | - 8730 | [7] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] Replenishment - In October 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year (July - October 2024) [9] Group 4: Data Overview Elimination Volume - According to the latest data from Zhuochuang Information, in the three weeks up to November 13, 2025, the national chicken elimination volumes were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend recently [17] Elimination Age - As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of chickens was 493 days, the same as last week and 6 days earlier than last month [17]
建信期货PTA日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:42
行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 随着乌克兰对欧洲某国 ...
建信期货国债日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:42
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Financial Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - purchasing and the slowdown of economic momentum, there is support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. Investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices. In the short term, weak economic data and the passing of the tax - payment peak may boost the market's expectation of monetary easing and reduce disturbances to the bond market [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: Affected by the tightening of inter - bank funds and stock market fluctuations, the sentiment in the bond market was weak, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds changed narrowly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rising 0.3bp to 1.8080%. The money market was tight in the morning and gradually loosened in the afternoon. The central bank achieved a net injection of 1.15 billion yuan. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 10.64bp to 1.4221%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.08bp to 1.5131%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Since June, domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. Exports turned negative in October, and price indicators remained low. Currently, loose monetary and fiscal policies are being strengthened. The restart of treasury bond trading brings direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit effects on the bond market should be limited. The bond market's negative factors have basically been released, and it is in a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are still some uncertain disturbances, overall, the bond market environment has improved, and investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - Diplomatic events: The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was dissatisfied with the results of the Sino - Japanese consultation, and the Chinese side demanded that Japan correct its wrong remarks. The US modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, which was a discriminatory restriction on Chinese enterprises, and the Chinese side would closely monitor the situation [13] - Domestic policies: The Chinese Premier called for free trade and strengthened cooperation within the SCO. Local financial departments are actively deploying the reserve work for special bond projects in 2026, and multiple "two - major" construction projects have started, which is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate of infrastructure investment [13][14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Presented the trading data of treasury bond futures on November 19, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest [6] - **Money Market**: Included the changes in SHIBOR term structure and trend, and the changes in inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Showed the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:42
多晶硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...
贵金属日评-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:36
行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 宏观金融团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情: 中日紧张形势推高东亚地缘政治风险和贵金属的避险需求,而高频数据显示 联邦政府停摆事件对美国就业市场带来较大冲击,美联储降息预期重新升温进一 步支持贵金属价格,19 日亚盘时段伦敦黄金反弹至 4100 美元/盎司附近。我们判 断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利空因素, 与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡,伦敦黄金 需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突破 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:36
021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 今日外盘美豆期货合约偏弱,主力在 1140 美分。周六凌晨 USDA 公布了 11 月月度供需报告,报告对上一年度的产量及压榨做了调整,24/25 年度的期末库 存由 3.3 亿蒲下降至 3.16 亿蒲。另外对 25/2 ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:31
Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices rose rapidly in the afternoon. The closing price of Si2601 was 9,390 yuan/ton, with a gain of 4.68%. The trading volume was 755,732 lots, and the open interest was 30,669 lots, with a net increase of 58,650 lots [4] - Spot prices increased slightly. The price range of 553 was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 9,750 - 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased. Production cuts in the southwest production area were ongoing, and weekly output still had room to decline [4] - The planned production cuts of silicone enterprises were significantly lower than the previous market consensus. The actual production cuts and time under the conditions of profitability and industrial self - discipline needed to be observed. In the first half of 2025, the silicone industry also cut production to support prices, but the effect was limited. Polysilicon production was also cut simultaneously, and the monthly output was expected to remain at 120,000 tons [4] - Due to production cuts in the southwest and rising costs, after the price of 2601 strongly rose and then fell, the basis was basically at par. The upside space was limited, and it was expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly. Be vigilant against the ebb of bullish sentiment in the same - sector commodities [4] Group 3: Market News - On November 19, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 43,412 lots, a net decrease of 10 lots from the previous trading day [4] - A meeting of actual controllers of silicone monomer plants was held in Shanghai as scheduled. The organizer was the China Fluorosilicone and Organic Materials Industry Association, and leading enterprises participated. The total production capacity of participating enterprises accounted for more than 80% of the industry's production capacity. The meeting was about joint emission reduction and price support [4] - The emission reduction plan was to be implemented starting from December 1. If it was implemented throughout December, the DMC output in December was expected to be about 210,400 tons, a reduction of about 8,000 tons compared with before the reduction. It was expected to affect the monthly consumption of industrial silicon by about 4,400 tons [4]
建信期货棉花日报-20251120
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:31
Report Overview - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market showed a fluctuating upward trend. With the Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase almost finished, the market's expectation of the 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton output increased. The downstream market remained weak, but the overall finished - product inventory increased slightly. Considering the limited short - term fundamental changes, it is advisable to try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (public standard). The cotton yarn market's trading weakened, with fewer new orders for spinning mills and a decline in operating rates. The price of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with a slight decline, while high - count combed yarn prices were relatively firm. The sales of cotton grey cloth were still differentiated, and the price was stable with a weakening trend [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Given the limited short - term fundamental changes, try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week of November 16, the U.S. cotton picking rate was 71%, compared with 76% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of November 18, 2025, 1,039 cotton processing enterprises across the country had processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton, with a cumulative inspection of 3.2727 million tons, an increase of 101,900 tons from the previous day. Among them, Xinjiang's inspection volume was 3.244 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar against the Indian rupee [16][18][19][21][28][30].