Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - The A-share market has shown an overall trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In the short term, policy expectations are weak, and as the year-end approaches, institutional demand for profit-taking and portfolio adjustment increases, leading to an overall increase in risk aversion. The index lacks guidance and shows an oscillating and volatile state [7][8][13] - The bond market is significantly adjusted, and the risk of a bear market should be limited. It will continue to maintain a low-interest rate environment next year. However, the policy layer's mention of cross-cycle adjustment may indicate that loose policies are difficult to implement in the short term, increasing short-term market volatility. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have a certain room for a supplementary increase [82] - The shipping market's price increase expectations are fermented again, and the EC rebounds and recovers. The market may conduct intense games around the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02-04 contract [91][104] Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Review**: The A-share market has shown a trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In December 8 - December 12, the A-share market oscillated, with small and medium-cap stocks performing more strongly. The growth sector led the rise, while other style sectors recorded declines. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion, along with domestic policy support, are beneficial for the capital market. However, short-term policy expectations are weak, and the index will oscillate [7][8][9][13] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Analysis**: The trading volume of stock index futures has increased, and the open interest has generally risen [14] - **Basis, Inter - Delivery Spread, and Inter - Variety Spread Analysis**: The basis trend is differentiated. The inter - delivery spread of all varieties shows negative values, and the inter - variety spread indicates that small and medium-cap stocks performed relatively better this week [16][20][22] - **Industry Sector Overview**: In terms of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500 by industry, the communication, information, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, while the energy, materials, and consumer sectors led the decline. At the primary industry level, the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors led the rise, while the coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel sectors led the decline [25][28] - **Valuation Comparison**: As of December 12, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at relatively high levels in the past ten years [30] Treasury Bonds - **This Week's Market Review**: - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The trading data of treasury bond futures is summarized. The market has experienced ups and downs this week. In terms of strategy performance, the short - term futures performed stronger than the spot, and there is a certain positive arbitrage space for the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling the basis for the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds. Currently, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - delivery strategy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the flattening strategy [33][34][38][41][53][55] - **Bond Spot Market**: The spot yields of treasury bonds have decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term. The yields of US bonds have also decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term [64] - **Funding Situation**: The central bank has made continuous net injections, and the inter - bank funding is loose. Funding rates remain low, and there is no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [74][76] - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: The yields of most interest rate swap varieties have declined this week, and liquidity expectations are stable [80] - **Market Analysis**: - **Recent Market Logic**: The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, and the bond market's risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market is limited. However, the short - term implementation of loose policies is difficult, increasing short - term market volatility. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a supplementary increase. Currently, the configuration demand is still cautious [82] - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: In November, exports were stronger than expected, imports were weaker than expected, and PPI improvement was also weaker than expected. The demand side continues to maintain the characteristic of "strong external and weak internal" [83] - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: Important meetings have set the tone for a loose monetary policy next year, but the possibility of short - term implementation is low. Next week's economic data is expected to maintain moderate recovery, and the support of funding for the bond market may weaken, with the market likely to maintain a weak oscillation [88] - **Next Week's Open Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar**: A total of 7485 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature next week, and the November national economic activity data will be released [90] Shipping Index - **Market Review**: The expectation of price increases has fermented again, and the EC has rebounded and recovered. The market is conducting games around the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the 02 contract has recovered and closed up [91] - **Container Shipping Market Situation**: - **Spot Market**: The freight rates of ocean routes have shown a differentiated trend, with the rates of European and American routes both declining. Shipowners have announced price increases for the second half of December and January, boosting the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival [96] - **Container Shipping Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the European container capacity in December is at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential capacity is expected to continue to grow. The possibility of full resumption of navigation in the Red Sea in the first quarter of next year is not high, but if the cease - fire is stable, the probability of gradual resumption in 2026 is large. On the demand side, it is difficult for the demand side to be significantly stimulated [101][102] - **Market Outlook**: The joint price increases of major shipowners may continue to boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02 - 04 contract [104]

1. Report General Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, supported by fundamentals but affected by the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan [8]. - The current industrial fundamentals of lithium carbonate are healthy, but the momentum to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. - Aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to be weak under the pressure of oversupply [76]. - Zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later [102]. 4. Summary by Metals Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE copper fluctuated between 91,450 and 94,570, with a total position of 646,872 lots. The spot premium turned to a discount of 20 on Friday. The copper price hit a record high due to the Fed's interest rate cut, China's policy expectations, and supply - demand support. LME copper ranged from 11,585 to 11,952, and the net long position of funds increased [7]. - It is recommended to note that although the supply of refined copper is under limited pressure and the demand acceptance has marginally improved, the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan may suppress market sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The import TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, while the processing fees of cold materials increased. The smelting loss of spot copper concentrate expanded, but the by - product sulfuric acid revenue rose. SMM expects the electrolytic copper output in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month. The import window of refined copper is closed [11][12][14]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased by 9.01 percentage points to 18.16%, while that of refined copper rods decreased by 2.82% to 64.54%. The operating rates of wire and cable and enameled wire also declined [15][16][17]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, and bonded area inventory decreased. LME + COMEX market inventory increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, with the main contract ranging from 91,120 to 101,620. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was relatively stable. The inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, and the cost support increased [24]. - It is recommended to note that the supply pressure is easing, and the demand growth rate of the terminal field is slowing down. The current industrial fundamentals are healthy, but the power to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is easing. It is expected that the output in December will decrease by 1% month - on - month. The prices of lithium mines generally rose, and the cash costs of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased [27][28]. - Demand: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium all rose. The prices of power cells fluctuated, and the production of power cells slowed down at the end of the year, while the production of energy - storage cells remained good [29][30][31]. - Spot: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract deepened significantly. The inventory continued to decline [33][34]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract ranging from 21,790 to 22,355. Alumina continued to fall, and the smelting profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise. The industry was in a state of destocking, and the import window was closed [40]. - It is recommended to note that the price of domestic bauxite is stable, alumina is still falling, and the demand for aluminum processing is weak. In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Bauxite: The price of domestic bauxite remained stable, and the supply of imported bauxite was well - supported. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 0.5 to 70.5 US dollars per wet ton [43]. - Alumina: The futures price hit a new low, and the import window was open. The weighted index of Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 0.59% week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic alumina plants was at a high level [46][47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price of alumina continued to fall, and the average profit of the industry increased to 5,715.47 yuan per ton [52]. - Exports and Imports: In October, the export of aluminum cables increased, and the import window of aluminum ingots was closed [61]. - Processing Enterprises: The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, and the demand was weak [65]. - Inventory: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline [69]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, nickel prices fell unilaterally. SHFE nickel and LME nickel both declined, and the import window was closed. The domestic social inventory increased by 2,122 tons to 58,970 tons, and the overall inventory pressure was significant [72]. - It is recommended to note that the price of Indonesian nickel ore fell, the price of nickel iron rebounded slightly, and the price of nickel salts continued to fall. The inventory continued to increase, and nickel prices are expected to remain weak [75][76]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Nickel Ore: The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores were temporarily stable, but the price of Indonesian nickel ore was loose. In October, the import of nickel ore decreased significantly [77]. - Nickel Iron: In November, the production of nickel pig iron decreased. In December, the production is expected to continue to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the import of nickel iron decreased slightly but remained at a high level [85][86][89]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In November, the production of refined nickel decreased [90]. - Nickel Sulfate: This week, the price of nickel salts continued to fall. In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased [93][96]. - Stainless Steel: This week, the inventory of the stainless - steel market increased slightly, and the actual demand did not improve significantly [99]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE zinc rose to repair the gap in April and then fluctuated at a high level. The spot premium declined, and the processing fees of zinc ore continued to fall. The domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and the LME zinc inventory increased [101]. - It is recommended to note that under the joint drive of macro - benefits and fundamental shortages, zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of smelters, inventory destocking rhythm, and macro - sentiment changes [102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The processing fees of zinc ore continued to decline, and the production of refined zinc in November may have declined slightly. In December, the production is expected to continue to fall. The overseas LME0 - 3 Back structure remains high, and the export window is open [109][110]. - Demand: The operating rate of galvanizing increased by 0.33% to 58.39%, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide decreased. The overall demand in the fourth quarter is weak [111][112]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 2,600 tons to 60,350 tons [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - environment and the precious metals market. The Fed's dovish rate cut boosts the market, and the precious metals market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and monetary policies. The report expects precious metal prices to continue to be strong in 2026 [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - China's exports show strong resilience. In November 2025, exports were $3303.5 billion, up 5.9% year - on - year; imports were $2186.7 billion, up 1.9% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, cumulative exports were $34147.3 billion, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the cumulative trade surplus was $10758.5 billion, up 21.2% year - on - year [4]. - In November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6][7]. - Overseas, in the first two months of fiscal year 2026 (October - November 2025), the US fiscal deficit decreased by 26.7% year - on - year. The US job market shows low liquidity [8]. 3.1.2 Focus - From December 9 - 10, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 3.5 - 3.75%. The Fed also decided to buy short - term Treasury bonds as needed [9]. - The Fed expects the US economy to grow at a slower pace, with employment and inflation under pressure. The market believes the Fed may continue to cut rates in the medium - term [12][19]. 3.1.3 Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 - 11, 2025, set the policy tone for 2026, including implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and focusing on eight key tasks [22][23][24]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate and recover in 2026, with a core fluctuation range of 96 - 108. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be range - bound, with a core fluctuation range of 6.92 - 7.25 against the US dollar [25][26]. - In 2026, the US Treasury yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, with short - term rates falling and medium - and long - term rates oscillating in the range of 3.8% - 4.5% for the 10 - year Treasury yield [28]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of December 11, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1050.8 tons, 22.2% higher than the May 2024 low, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16083 tons, 20.6% higher than the May 2024 low [30]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the bull market in gold. In the medium - term, economic risks make gold prices strong. In the short - term, gold and silver prices have fluctuated recently [33]. - In 2026, London gold is expected to reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce, London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [36]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The correlation between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real yields, and silver has weakened, while the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has strengthened [37][38].

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly. Suggest considering selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds [8][33][37]. - The coke and coking coal markets are under pressure from both supply guarantee and imports, with prices likely to continue their downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [10][55]. - The iron ore market has an expected increase in supply and weak demand, with prices expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [13][83][84]. Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined significantly in the week of December 12 [14]. - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises decreased in late November [15]. - **Hot Metal and EAF**: The national average daily hot metal output decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent EAF steel mills declined [19]. - **Output and Inventory**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, the rebar inventory in major steel mills decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [20]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to decline [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased [23]. - **Apparent Consumption and Margin**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the rebar 2605 contract margin showed an expanded loss [27]. - **Spot Rebar Margin**: The long - process rebar spot margin loss expanded, while the short - process margin turned profitable and increased slightly [32]. Conclusion and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds. Monitor the impact on steel mill profits, port iron ore inventory, and the decline cycle of the coke and coking coal markets [33][37]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to narrow with a range of 120 - 240 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate in the range of - 40 - 50 yuan/ton [37][39]. Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major coke and coking coal spot markets declined [40]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production decreased after rising [40][41]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The port coke inventory decreased, while the steel enterprises' and coking plants' coke inventories increased. Independent coking enterprises had continuous profits [45]. - **Mine Output and Inventory**: The daily output and开工 rate of 523 sample mines decreased, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Import and Inventory**: The import of coking coal decreased from January to October, and the port and coking plants' coking coal inventories increased, while the steel enterprises' inventory decreased [50]. - **Output**: The national coal and coke production increased from January to October [50]. Conclusion and Suggestions - Expected to continue the downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [55]. Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port decreased. The spreads between different ore grades changed [56]. - **Inventory and Unloading**: The port iron ore inventory increased to a new high since April 2022, and the unloading volume increased. The steel mills' inventory days increased [60]. - **Shipping and Arrival**: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil changed, and the arrival volume decreased. It is expected that the shipping volume will increase later [64]. - **Domestic Output and Operation**: The domestic iron ore output decreased from January to October, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased [68]. - **Port Volume and Cost**: The 5 - day moving average of port iron ore trading volume decreased, and the average hot metal cost remained unchanged [70]. - **Hot Metal Output and Utilization**: The average daily hot metal output decreased to a new low since March, and the demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak [72]. - **Steel Output and Inventory**: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, the steel mill inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [74][75]. - **Transportation Cost**: The main iron ore freight rates mostly decreased, and the Baltic Dry Index declined [77]. Conclusion and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, and prices are expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [83][84]. - **Basis**: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot and the 2605 contract is expected to narrow, with a range of 50 - 110 yuan/ton [84].

行业 农产品 2025 年 12 月 12 日 日期 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 | | | 周度报告 油脂 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | 本周棕榈油市场呈现震荡调整走势。周三马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布的 数据显示，由于产量增长而出口疲软，马来西亚 11 月棕榈油库存达到 284 万 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is under pressure with supply growth expected and weak demand becoming a reality, leading to a renewed weakness in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Performance**: On December 11, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opening with oscillations, then quickly falling, and slightly recovering in the afternoon, closing at 757.0 yuan/ton, down 1.30% [7] - **Spot Market**: On December 11, the main iron ore outer - market quotes rose 0.3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning back down and the D value continuing to decline; the daily MACD indicator's green bar has started to expand [9] - **Future Outlook**: Supply from Australia and Brazil is picking up and is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Demand is weak as the output of five major steel products has reached a new low this year, and the daily average hot - metal output has dropped to around 2.32 million tons. Steel mills are restocking as needed, with inventory available days at a relatively low level of around 20 days this year. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, reaching a new high since the end of February, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - BP interest rate cut in its December interest rate decision, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75%, and is predicted to cut rates by another 25 BP in 2026 [12] - According to the 2026 China Real Estate Market Trend Report, in a neutral scenario, the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new construction area is expected to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment is expected to decline by 11%. In the medium - to - long term, the average annual sales area of new commercial housing during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be maintained at 7 - 8 billion square meters, and the real estate market is expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment phase in the middle and late stages of the "14th Five - Year Plan" [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of ore, the shipping volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, port arrival volumes, domestic mine capacity utilization rates, and other relevant data related to the iron ore and steel industry [14][22][23]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 美联储宣布降息 25 个基点符合市场预期，FOMC 声明中体现将进一步调 整利率的幅度和时机，预计 26 和 27 年各降息一次，利好逐步消化，商品市场 看多氛围有所减弱，有色表现分化，锡、铜领涨，锌、镍小幅收跌。Zn601 在 2.3 万一线徘徊，收于 22995 元/吨，跌 70，跌幅 0.30%，缩量减仓。持仓结构 来看，01 合约前 20 席位多空双减，净多头减 6 手，02 合约多空双增，净空头 增 1570 手。基本面来看，TC 下行叠加矿端供应持续转紧，炼厂 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to fluctuate. Although the short - term futures price has risen rapidly, the spot price has limited follow - up. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, the social inventory has been reduced but the de - stocking intensity is expected to weaken, and the futures price is supported by the spot price below [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The lithium carbonate futures price increased, and the total open interest rose by 22,591 lots to 1.06 million lots. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 800 to 93,500, and the spot discount in the trading market widened to 2,800. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, mainly from the lithium spodumene end. The production of lithium carbonate from mica dropped to 2,876 tons. The social inventory decreased by 2,133 tons, and the de - stocking volume declined compared with the previous week [11] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The US lithium miner Albemarle's direct lithium extraction (DLE) pilot plant in Chile has completed verification, with a lithium recovery rate of over 94% during stable operation, a water reuse rate of up to 85%, and an operation time of over 3,000 hours. The company allocated $30 million for the pilot plant and an additional $216 million for the salt recovery plant at the Atacama salt flat [12] - Domestic lithium battery manufacturers are adjusting prices. Degjia Energy will raise the prices of its battery products by 15% from December 16 due to rising raw material costs. Fuen Technology is communicating with customers about price increases, and some products have already seen price hikes. The industry is experiencing a wave of orders centered on "locking in volume", with tight production capacity and rising prices. Chinese lithium - battery companies are expected to increase their global industrial influence [12][13]

日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 铜期货日报 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价上涨，隔夜美联储如期降息 25BP，市场情绪受到提振，铜价上涨，沪铜主力 最高涨至 9.3 万，但日内随着 A 股开盘后持续走弱，市场抛售情绪增加带动铜价 回落。现货涨 965 至 92665，现货升水跌 25 至 5，临近年末持货商抛售情绪增加， 叠加 12 合约即将结束，现货升水快速下行。周内社库再度累库 0.27 万吨，高铜 价抑 ...