行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 由于会议纪要显示较多美联储官员在 10 月底会议时即已反对降息，市场对美 联储 12 月会议降息概率从 50%附近骤降至 25%，美元指数则强势反弹至 100 上方， 美联储降息预期降温与美元汇率反弹使得隔夜伦敦黄金冲高后显著回落至 4080 美元/盎司附近，而且市场传言特朗普政府力推 28 点计划，试图联合俄罗斯施压 乌克兰同意停火，这也削弱了贵金属的避险需求。我们判断短期内美联储放缓降 息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利空因素， ...

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 1.1 行情回顾： 11 月 20 日，万得全 A 再次缩量下跌，高开后一路震荡走低，收跌 0.66%，全 市超 7 成个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.51%、 0.40%、0.85%、0.63%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力 合约分别收跌 0.57%、0.28%、0.78%、0.47%，表现整体强于现货（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - buying, the bottom of Treasury bond futures is supported. With the slowdown of economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips. [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The November LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with expectations and had limited impact on the bond market. The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The buying of 5 - year and 7 - year Treasury bond cash bonds was relatively obvious, possibly related to the central bank's bond - buying. [8] - **Interest Rate Cash Bonds**: The yields of major - term interest - rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market all changed within a narrow range. By 16:30 PM, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8090%, up 0.2bp. [9] - **Funding Market**: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank funding market became looser, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. There were 310 billion yuan of open - market maturities, and the central bank injected 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating further relief of funding pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits dropped 5.69bp to 1.3652%, and the 7 - day rate dropped 2.74bp to 1.4857%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64%. [10] - **Conclusion**: In terms of the economic fundamentals, since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially the investment side has accelerated its decline. The export, which was the main support of the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of export decline and weak domestic demand led to price indicators remaining low. The fundamentals still face certain pressure. In terms of policies, the current combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies has been strengthened again. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The credit - expansion effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. The central bank may increase the space for easing. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, but there are still some uncertain disturbances. [11][12] 2. Industry News - The November LPR quote remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.5%. [13] - The Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association organized an integrity initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline and maintain the real - estate market order. [13] - Recently, multiple "two - important" construction projects have started. "Two - important" construction will be an important focus of the stable - growth policy, and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate. [13] - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the cost index of lithium iron phosphate and standardizing industry development to prevent low - price dumping. [14] - Japan plans to launch a new expenditure plan of 17.7 trillion yen and needs to issue more bonds to raise funds. [15] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of various Treasury bond futures contracts on November 20, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest, were presented. [6] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repo rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged - repo rate, was provided. [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided. [34]

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment surge further fermented in the February contract after the Shanghai Futures Exchange clarified the last trading day of the February contract on Friday. The December contract was weak due to the under - expected price increase. The SCFIS index fell 9.8% week - on - week to 1357.67. Shipping companies have not formed a unified price - holding force, and the December price increase is less than expected. However, there is still a far - month price increase expectation, which may lead to over - valuation of the 04 contract in the off - season. It is advisable to pay attention to the positive spread trading opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The last trading day of the February contract was clarified as February 9. The expectation of the pre - Spring Festival shipment surge affected the February contract, while the December contract was weak due to under - expected price increases. The SCFIS index decreased by 9.8% week - on - week. Shipping companies' price increases are difficult to implement, but there is a far - month price increase expectation, and the 02 - 04 positive spread trading opportunity is worth noting [8] 3.2行业要闻 - From November 10 to 14, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with ocean - going routes showing a differentiated trend and the comprehensive index slightly declining. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on November 14 was 1451.38 points, down 2.9% from the previous period. The eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index was 25, indicating a recovery of market confidence in the European economy. The freight rate of European routes increased by 7.1%, the Mediterranean routes were stable, and the North American routes decreased. There were also developments in the Israel - Palestine conflict and related international stances [9][10] 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - On November 17, the SCFIS for European routes was 1357.67, down 9.8% from November 10; the SCFIS for US - West routes was 1238.42, down 6.9% from November 10 [12] 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - Data on the trading of container shipping futures on the European line on November 19 were provided, including information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change for contracts EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - Multiple charts related to shipping data were presented, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures on the European line, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][18][23]

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - Carbonate lithium futures prices are rising, with far - month contracts breaking through 100,000. The trading enthusiasm is high, with the total intraday open interest increasing by 70,750 lots. The spot price has risen by 1500 to 88,900. Various related products in the industry chain are also rising. Although the spot price is following the increase, the futures price is still significantly higher than the spot price. Short - term chasing of the rising price is risky. It is recommended to wait for the futures - spot price to converge and then buy at low prices [11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures prices increased, with far - month contracts exceeding 100,000. The trading enthusiasm remained high, and the total intraday open interest increased by 70,750 lots. The spot price rose 1500 to 88,900, 6F rose 4000, Australian ore increased by 60, mica increased by 110, electrolyte remained flat, ternary cathode materials rose 300 - 500, and lithium iron phosphate rose 350 - 365. The prices in the industrial chain are rising continuously. However, the futures price is much higher than the spot price, so short - term chasing of the rising price has risks. It is advisable to wait for the futures - spot price to converge and then buy at low prices [11]. 2. Industry News - The EU plans to establish a central institution for coordinating the procurement and reserve of critical minerals. The EU aims to diversify the inventory of critical minerals such as lithium and copper to reduce dependence on a single country. The plan also includes signing partnership agreements with countries like Brazil and South Africa and providing funds for relevant innovation [12]. - At the 15th High - tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference, it was predicted that China's lithium battery shipments would increase by more than three times from 2025 to 2035. The period from 2027 (or 2028) to 2030 will be an important stage for the large - scale construction of GWh - level production capacity in the all - solid - state lithium battery industry. With the growing demand in the power battery and energy storage markets and the breakthroughs in new technologies, China's lithium battery industry is transforming from scale expansion to value creation and will maintain high - speed growth in the next decade [12][13].

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 汽车购置税将减半征收，中汽协提议，明年应持续优化汽车"以旧换新"政 策，以稳定市场预期。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 镍观点： 宏观情绪有所缓解，19 日沪镍暂止跌企稳运行，主力 2601 小幅高开后震荡 运行，收盘报 115830，较上日上涨 0.29%。金川镍平均升水较上日涨 50 报 4100， 国产电积镍升水报 0-400。8-12%高镍生铁仍未止住跌势，均价下跌 2.5 至 897 元 /镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日下跌 ...

报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月19日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: For SHFE zinc contracts 2512, 2601, and 2602, the closing prices were 22,420 yuan/ton, 22,435 yuan/ton, and 22,455 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 70 yuan (0.31%), 65 yuan (0.29%), and 60 yuan (0.27%). The positions of the top 20 long and short seats both decreased, and the net long position decreased by 421 lots. LME zinc had an additional delivery of 1,550 tons to 45,075 tons, with a cumulative delivery of 9,700 lots since November. The Cash - 3M spread was 129.76B. [7] - Spot Market: The downstream maintained just - in - time procurement. The premium in Shanghai market for the December contract was 160 yuan/ton, Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai, and Guangdong market was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton for the January 26 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. [7] - Supply and Price Support: Due to the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the processing fee continued to decline. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decrease slightly month - on - month, and the tightening of the ore end supported the zinc price. [7] - Market Sentiment: According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 42.9%. The market sentiment turned cautious before the release of the September non - farm payroll data on Thursday evening. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Price Ranges on November 19, 2025: The mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were 22,495 - 22,600 yuan/ton, Shuangyan brand was 22,545 - 22,660 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,425 - 22,530 yuan/ton. [8] - Regional Markets: In Ningbo, the mainstream 0 zinc price was 22,525 - 22,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract and 120 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. In Tianjin, 0 zinc was 22,330 - 22,490 yuan/ton, and the premium for the 2512 contract was between a discount of 20 yuan/ton and a premium of 50 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, 0 zinc was 22,290 - 22,420 yuan/ton, with a discount of 55 - 25 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract and 60 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory. [10][12] - Data Sources: The data sources are Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]

日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 行业 铝日报 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 每日报告 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 一、行情回顾与操作建议 宏观氛围转暖风险资产恐慌情绪有所缓解，19 日铝价暂止跌窄幅运行，主力 2601 报收于 21570，较上日上涨 0.12%。现货上，绝对价小幅回升，但整体水平 低于前期，采购情绪回暖，下游补货意愿回升，持货方尝试挺升贴水，日内华东 贴水-20，中原贴水-120，华南贴水-145。进口窗口关闭，现货进口亏损-1600 元 /吨左右。国产矿相对坚挺，几内亚矿价低位徘徊，氧化铝运行产能保持高位，过 剩压力显著，但随着月均价下行北 ...