Report Information - Report Date: April 3, 2025 [1] - Report Provider: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Core Views - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations, with a short - term weakening trend [2] - Various futures products have different market trends, including shock, weakening, and strengthening trends, and different investment suggestions are given based on supply - demand and technical indicators Industry Analysis by Product Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigued" state. Fundamentally, listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, and some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, the MACD has a high - level death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment. A short - term weakening shock approach is recommended [2] General Futures (Not Specified) - Today, it showed a narrow - range weak consolidation. Recently, the rise and fall have been disorderly, and a shock approach is appropriate [5] Commodities Glass - Long - term supply intensity is high. As the traditional peak season approaches, the actual downstream demand start - up situation should be monitored. Technically, the indicators show a double golden cross [6] - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and the spot sales and production situation has improved. With the optimistic market sentiment affected by recent policies, the actual demand still needs to be observed. Technically, it has declined today, and the short - term trend is unclear. A shock approach is recommended [8] Pulp - There is support from rigid demand and the cost side below, and the space for further decline is expected to be limited. The inventory has shown a de - stocking trend this cycle. It should be treated as a shock bottom - building [11] Urea - The restart of overhauled urea devices is expected to increase supply - side pressure, and downstream demand is expected to weaken. Urea inventory is seasonally de - stocking but is slightly high overall. Cost support is weak. Currently, the daily urea production remains high, industrial demand is expected to weaken, and the spring agricultural fertilization demand is about to end. The supply - demand is still relatively loose, and chasing up should be done with caution [14] Sugar - Domestic sugar crushing has basically ended, the weather in the Brazilian production area is good, and there is no progress in the domestic imported sugar policy. The short - term supply pressure of imported sugar sources is small. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a golden cross, and the market trend is strong [17] Rubber - The new - season tapping has gone smoothly, and the expectation of a rapid increase in supply has brought heavy pressure to the futures and spot markets. The procurement price of tire manufacturers is lower than expected and cannot provide a boost. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross. After a short - term rapid decline, it is in a low - level shock consolidation [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock index is likely to undergo short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations, with a short - term shock - weakening approach for operation [2] - For certain commodities, the views are as follows: for some commodities, take a shock - strong approach; for alumina, a shock - more approach; for pulp, a shock - bottoming approach; for rubber, a low - level shock - consolidation approach after a short - term sharp decline; for urea, a high - level shock approach [5][8][11] Group 3: Summaries by Related Commodities Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigue" state. Fundamentally, as listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, there is a high - level MACD death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2] General Commodity (not specified) - It closed up today, with disordered recent price movements, and should be viewed with a shock - strong approach [5] Unspecified Commodity (related to long - term supply) - Long - term supply intensity is high. As the traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, there is a double golden cross of indicators [6] Glass - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and spot sales have improved. With positive market sentiment under recent policy influence, actual demand still needs to be observed. Technically, although there was a large increase today, the trend is unclear, and it should be viewed with a shock - strong approach [8] Alumina - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line. It should be viewed with a shock - more approach [11] Pulp - There is support from rigid demand and the cost side below, so the room for further decline is expected to be limited. The inventory showed a destocking trend in this cycle, and it should be treated as shock - bottoming [14] Rubber - The new - season tapping is going smoothly, and the expectation of a rapid increase in supply has brought heavy pressure to the futures and spot markets. The purchase price of tire manufacturers is lower than expected and fails to provide a boost. Technically, there is a death cross of MACD and short - term moving averages, and it will have low - level shock - consolidation after a short - term sharp decline [16] Urea - The current daily production of urea is high, and the supply remains relatively loose. Industrial demand is expected to weaken, and the spring agricultural fertilization demand is about to end. It should be treated as high - level shock [19]

金信期货日刊 金 信 期 货 研 究 院 2025/04/01 股指经过连续震荡上行之后，短期进入"疲态" ，我们认为短期震荡调整是大概率事件，从 基本面看，上市公司进入年报公布密集期，部分资金会寻求避险；技术上，MACD高位死叉， 股指有进一步调整的需求，操作上，短期震荡偏弱思路为主。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 股指期货 数据来源：iFind、金信期货 铁矿 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 日线级别连续收阴，震荡偏空思路看待。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 长期供应强度较大，临近传统旺季，关注下游实际需求启动情况；技术上，指标双金叉， GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations. It is recommended to adopt a short - term weak shock strategy [2]. - For today, it is advisable to view the market with a slightly stronger shock mindset [5]. - In the long - term, the supply intensity is high. As the traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, there is a double golden cross [6]. - For glass, although the spot sales have improved with some cold - repairs of production lines and positive market sentiment due to policies, the actual demand remains to be observed. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [8]. - The alumina futures price is supported as the current price is close to the industry's average production cost of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [11]. - The futures 05 contract of caustic soda may be oversold. With the smooth commissioning of alumina plants, the short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From late March to April, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, and caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound [14]. - For urea, with high daily production and weakening industrial demand and the end of agricultural spring fertilization demand, it should be treated with high - level shock [17]. - For soybeans, the low auction成交率, rumors of faster customs clearance of imported soybeans, and limited supply from farmers support the price. After a short - term sharp decline, it is in low - level shock consolidation [20]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigued" state. Fundamentally, listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, and some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, there is a high - level MACD death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2]. General Market - Today, there is a slight decline, and it should be viewed with a slightly stronger shock mindset [5]. Long - term Supply and Demand - The long - term supply intensity is large. As the traditional peak season approaches, the actual start of downstream demand needs attention. Technically, there is a double golden cross [6]. Glass - Some production lines have been cold - repaired recently, and spot sales have improved. Market sentiment is optimistic due to policies, but actual demand remains to be observed. Technically, there is a double golden cross, and it fell again today. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [8]. Alumina - The industry's average production cost is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line, supporting the futures price. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [11]. Caustic Soda - The futures 05 contract may be oversold due to strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis. Alumina plants are commissioned smoothly, and short - term demand is not bad. From late March to April, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, and it is expected to bottom out and rebound [14]. Urea - The current daily production is high, supply is still loose, industrial demand is expected to weaken, and agricultural spring fertilization demand is about to end. It should be treated with high - level shock [17]. Soybeans - The 160000 - ton soybean auction had a low成交 rate. There are rumors of faster customs clearance of imported soybeans, and the limited supply from farmers supports the price. After a short - term sharp decline, it is in low - level shock consolidation [20].

Report Core View - After continuous upward oscillations, the stock index has entered a "fatigued" state in the short term. A short - term oscillatory adjustment is likely. From a fundamental perspective, listed companies are in the intensive period of annual report announcements, and some funds will seek risk - avoidance. Technically, the MACD has a high - level death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment. The short - term trading strategy should be based on a weak - oscillation mindset [2]. - The long - term supply intensity is relatively high. As the traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, the indicators have been repaired, and the market closed up again today. It should be viewed with an oscillatory and bullish mindset [5]. - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and the spot sales volume has improved. With the optimistic market sentiment influenced by recent policies, the actual demand still needs to be observed. Technically, the indicators show a double golden cross, and today there was a narrow - range consolidation. It should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset [7]. - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line. It should be viewed with an oscillatory and bullish mindset [10]. - With strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis, the futures contract 05 of caustic soda may be oversold. The alumina plants have been put into operation smoothly, and the short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From a supply - demand perspective, during the peak maintenance period of caustic soda plants from late March to April, there may be a temporary supply - demand mismatch, and caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound [13]. - Yesterday, the transaction rate of a 160,000 - ton soybean auction was low. There are market rumors that the customs clearance time for imported soybeans has been accelerated. The limited soybean sources of rural farmers support the soybean price. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages have a death cross. After a short - term sharp decline, it is in a low - level oscillatory consolidation [16]. - China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal. However, the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil is small, and most is imported from Russia. The domestic inventory pressure remains high, and the short - term market is greatly affected by China - Canada policies. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages have a golden cross, and the short - term market is in an oscillatory pattern [19]. Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided.

黄金专题：会当凌绝顶， 一览众山小 金信期货 研究院 姓名：杨彦龙 投资咨询编号：Z0018274 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 2025.03.27 黄金专题：会当凌绝顶，一览众山小 一、特性探讨 二、供需分析 三、驱动因素 （一）商品属性 （二）货币属性 （三）金融属性 （四）避险属性 （四）交易属性 四、综合研判 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 何为贵金属？ | 对比项 | 贵金属 | 非贵金属 | | --- | --- | --- | | 主要功能 | 储值、避险、高端工业 | 基建、制造业原料 | | 驱动因素 | 通胀预期、地缘政治、工业技术革新 | 宏观经济周期、供需基本面 | | 波动情况 | 较高（受金融属性放大） | 较低（受实际需求主导） | | 典型代表 | 金、银、铂、钯 | 铁、铜、铝、锌 | GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料，金信期货研究院 观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 Ø 贵金属（Precious Metals）是一类稀有、高价值、化学性质稳定的金属，具备货币属性、投资储备功能和关键工业应用。它们通 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations, with a short - term weakening trend in operation [2]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a shock mindset [5]. - Glass should be viewed with a shock mindset, despite improved spot sales and optimistic market sentiment, actual demand remains to be observed [8]. - Alumina should be viewed with a slightly bullish shock mindset as the current price is close to the cost line [11]. - Caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound as it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch from late March to April [14]. - Soybean No.1 will experience low - level shock consolidation after a short - term sharp decline [17]. - Rapeseed oil will be in a short - term shock pattern [20]. Industry - Specific Summaries Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigued" state. Fundamentally, listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, and some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, the MACD has a high - level death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2]. Iron Ore - It closed with a small positive line today. There is a large long - term supply intensity, and attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand as the traditional peak season approaches. Technically, the indicators show a double death cross [5][6]. Glass - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and spot sales have improved. With the influence of policies, market sentiment is optimistic, but actual demand remains to be observed. Technically, the indicators show a double golden cross, and it closed with a negative line today [8]. Alumina - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line [11]. Caustic Soda - With strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis, the futures 05 contract may be oversold. Alumina device production is going smoothly, and short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From late March to April, there will be a peak of caustic soda device maintenance, and it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch [14]. Soybean No.1 - The成交 rate of a 160,000 - ton soybean auction yesterday was low. There are rumors that the customs clearance time for imported soybeans has been accelerated, and the small amount of soybeans from grass - roots farmers supports the soybean price. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [17]. Rapeseed Oil - China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal. After the short - term emotional release, the market returns to the supply - demand situation, and domestic inventory pressure remains high. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [20].

金信期货日刊 金 信 期 货 研 究 院 铁矿 今日冲高回落，转为震荡思路。 2025/03/26 股指经过连续震荡上行之后，短期进入"疲态" ，我们认为短期震荡调整是大概率事件，从 基本面看，上市公司进入年报公布密集期，部分资金会寻求避险；技术上，MACD高位死叉， 股指有进一步调整的需求，操作上，短期震荡偏弱思路为主。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 股指期货 数据来源：iFind、金信期货 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 长期供应强度较大，临近传统旺季，关注下游实际需求启动情况；技术上，指标双死叉， GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 近 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations. It is recommended to adopt a short - term weak shock strategy [2]. - For today's market, it is recommended to take a bullish shock approach [5]. - In the long - term, due to high supply intensity and approaching the traditional peak season, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, with double dead - crosses of indicators, a cautious attitude is needed [6]. - For glass, with some production lines cold - repaired recently, spot sales have improved. With positive market sentiment influenced by policies, but actual demand still to be observed. Technically, with double golden - crosses of indicators and a strong breakthrough today, a bullish approach is recommended [8]. - For 20 - number rubber, from March onwards, Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries are in the low - yield season for over a month, with less glue output and reduced raw material supply for standard rubber. Technically, with disordered price movements, a shock approach is recommended [11]. - For alumina, the average production cost in the industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line. A bullish shock approach is recommended [14]. - For sugar, over 90% of sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the crushing process, and the domestic sugar - crushing season is coming to an end. Industrial inventory is high, but import pressure is not large. Technically, with golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, the short - term market will fluctuate at a high level [16]. - For rapeseed oil, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal, but the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil is small, mainly imported from Russia. After the short - term emotional release, the market returns to the supply - demand situation, with high domestic inventory pressure. Technically, with golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, the short - term market will be in a shock pattern [19]. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it enters a "fatigue" state. Fundamentally, as listed companies enter the intensive annual report disclosure period, some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, with a high - level dead - cross of MACD, there is a need for further adjustment [2]. General Market - Today's market shows a significant upward trend, and a bullish shock approach is recommended [5]. Long - term Market - High supply intensity and approaching the traditional peak season. Attention should be paid to downstream demand start. Technically, double dead - crosses of indicators [6]. Glass - Some production lines are cold - repaired, spot sales improve. Policy - influenced positive market sentiment, but actual demand to be observed. Technically, double golden - crosses and a strong breakthrough [8]. 20 - number Rubber - Southeast Asian low - yield season from March, less glue output, reduced raw material supply. Technically, disordered price movements [11]. Alumina - Average production cost 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, current price close to cost line [14]. Sugar - Guangxi sugar - crushing season ending, high industrial inventory, low import pressure. Technically, golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, high - level short - term shock [16]. Rapeseed Oil - Tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal, small import volume from Canada, mainly from Russia. After emotional release, back to supply - demand, high domestic inventory. Technically, golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, short - term shock [19].

宏观点评： "反常"的金融数据 金 信 期 货 研 究 院 2024/05/13 黄婷莉 F3073548 Z0015398 央行公布4月金融数据 (1) 新增人民币贷款7300亿元，市场预期7433亿元，前值30900亿元。 (2) 社会融资规模-1987亿元，市场预期10148亿元，前值48675亿元。 (3) M2同比7.2%，市场预期8.3%，前值8.3%; M1同比-1.4%，前值1.1%; M0同 比10.8%。 24-02 23-11 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|--------|-------|----------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------|---------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 当月新增社副 | -1987 | 48675 | 15248 | 65364 | 19326 | 24554 | 18441 | 41326 | 31279 | 5 ...