Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The stock market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend today. The pre - market information of the significant downward revision of US non - farm data had been pre - announced, and the financial market didn't over - react. Overnight US stocks were generally strong, with US technology stocks like Google rising significantly, providing an optimistic tone for A - shares. Coupled with positive domestic technology - related information, technology concepts led the rise again today, but the upward movement was concentrated in heavy - weight stocks, with large - cap indexes outperforming small - cap indexes. The price data announced today didn't significantly exceed expectations. The year - on - year decline in CPI was mainly dragged down by food items, while core CPI showed resilience, and the narrowing of the year - on - year decline in PPI was in line with expectations, so the market reaction was relatively flat. Only the pan - consumer industry oscillated upward after a brief correction. In the short term, the stock market continues. The strategy recommends paying attention to the opportunity of selling call options on the CSI 300 ETF, with the strike price being one or two out - of - the - money levels [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index showed a volatile trend with mixed gains and losses. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.21%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1404.01 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF rose with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IC and IM fell with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - According to the latest data from Goldman Sachs Research Department, in August, global hedge funds' net buying of China reached a new high since September last year, and their gross positions in China reached a two - year high. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly deployed a special rectification campaign against network chaos in the automotive industry. In August, China's CPI turned negative year - on - year by 0.4%, core CPI rebounded to 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.9% [3]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.26 | 0.54 | - 0.05 | - 0.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.068 | 5.3249 | 13.4597 | 27.5094 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.9016 | 0.055 | - 0.3849 | 2.1363 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.5475 | 9.5887 | 24.7388 | 38.3703 | | Open interest change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.7307 | - 0.0093 | 0.1732 | 0.3043 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.13 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.38 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.92 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 19781.23 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (billion yuan) | - 1404.01 | [6]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——累库预期提前，估值供需承压 2025/09/10 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 1、本周计划到港14.33万吨，港口发货不佳，下周一港口库存预计累库3万吨左右，现货流动性预计将逐步放 松。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4200-4600 | 11.05% | 6.4% | | PX | 6500-7400 | 13.78% | 30.4% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 12.97% | 20.1% | | 瓶片 | 5800-6500 | 10.02% | 10.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/10 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石10合约月度价格预测（9月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-830 | 21.53% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（9月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2510 | 空 | 45% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2510-C-830 | | 40% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2510 | 多 | 30% | 770-780 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌，若 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side [2]. - The news of the resumption of production at Ningde era's Jianxiawo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in the lithium carbonate futures price, indicating the spread of irrational market sentiment [2]. - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. Although the overall inventory is still at a historical high, the downstream inventory is in a healthy and safe range, showing the resilience of terminal demand [2]. - The demand side provides key support for the price. The "Golden September" peak - season expectation and the toughness of the terminal structure jointly lay the foundation for demand. The production schedule of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase by more than 5% month - on - month [4]. - Even if the Jianxiawo mine resumes production in November at the earliest, it will not affect the downstream demand for lithium carbonate during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will probably show a wide - range oscillation pattern in the next month, with the overall oscillation range around 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 40.6%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 67.2% [2]. 3.2 Lithium - battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions 3.2.1 Purchase Management - **Product price has no correlation**: For enterprises with a plan to produce battery materials in the future and worried about the increase in the purchase cost of lithium carbonate, they can buy corresponding futures contracts (20% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton) or sell put options (30% hedging ratio, LC2511 - P - 68000) [2]. - **Product price has correlation**: Enterprises can sell futures main contracts (70% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) when purchasing lithium carbonate to lock in the value of goods; for those worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling lithium carbonate, they can sell corresponding futures contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) or buy put options and sell call options (40% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) [2]. 3.2.2 Sales Management - For enterprises purchasing lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products, worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling finished products, they can sell futures main contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (60% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory Management - For enterprises with inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate highly correlated with price and worried about inventory depreciation due to future price decline, they can sell futures main contracts (60% - 80% hedging ratio, 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton) or sell call options (40% - 60% hedging ratio, LC2511 - C - 79000) [2]. 3.3 Futures Data - **Lithium carbonate main contract**: The closing price is 70,720 yuan/ton, down 2,180 yuan (- 2.99%) daily and 1,160 yuan (- 1.61%) weekly; the trading volume is 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots (27.01%) daily and 308,680 lots (69.71%) weekly; the open interest is 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots (- 3.00%) daily and 5,234 lots (- 1.51%) weekly [10]. - **Lithium carbonate weighted contract**: The closing price is 70,827 yuan/ton, down 2,098 yuan (- 2.88%) daily and 1,082 yuan (- 1.51%) weekly; the trading volume is 1,063,402 lots, up 268,464 lots (33.77%) daily and 467,948 lots (78.59%) weekly; the open interest is 796,180 lots, down 10,197 lots (- 1.26%) daily and up 32,227 lots (4.22%) weekly [10]. 3.4 Spot Data 3.4.1 Lithium Ore Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 2.68%) daily and 70 yuan (- 3.71%) weekly [21]. - The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,130 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan (- 4.13%) daily and 210 yuan (- 6.29%) weekly [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Daily Quotes - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.59%) daily and 2,400 yuan (- 3.26%) weekly [24]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.54%) daily and 2,450 yuan (- 3.23%) weekly [24]. 3.4.3 Downstream Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 33,620 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan (- 0.81%) daily [29]. - The average price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 44,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 0.44%) daily [30]. 3.5 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Lithium carbonate brand basis quotes**: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no daily change [32]. - **Lithium carbonate warehouse receipt quantity**: The total warehouse receipt quantity is 38,101 lots, with no daily change [35]. 3.6 Cost and Profit No specific summary data provided in the text for cost and profit other than the presentation of relevant charts.

金融期货早评 费刺激政策，将与"以旧换新"等商品消费提振措施形成协同，共同支撑社会消费品零售总 额增长，不过其实际提振效果仍有待进一步观察。海外方面，美国数据表明，其劳动力市 宏观：促服务消费政策逐步落地 【市场资讯】1）美国非农年度修正比预期还差，下修 91.1 万，美联储降息压力加大。特 朗普政府火力全开，炮轰 BLS、拜登、鲍威尔。2）美国最高法院将快速审理特朗普关税案。 3）马克龙任命第 5 位法国总理，为现年 39 岁的国防部长勒科尔尼，仍面临 3 万亿欧元债 务危机。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国新办召开政策吹风会，解读《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推 进体育产业高质量发展的意见》有关政策措施。我们判断，这或为促进服务消费系列政策 的开端，后续预计将有更多政策逐步落地，需重点跟踪相关举措的实施进展。此类服务消 场正逐步呈现走弱态势。展望后市，美联储议息会议公布的点阵图，将成为市场关注的核 心焦点。 人民币汇率：关注美国物价指数数据 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1248，较上一交易日上涨 73 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1250。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1008，调升 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0012647), Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Planting Entities - Behavior: Harvest new soybeans in autumn with high selling demand but large short - term selling pressure [2] - Strategy: Take advantage of futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Short [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 4000 - 4050 [2] Inventory and Procurement Management For Sellers - Behavior: With soybeans in concentrated listing, sellers' bargaining power weakens [2] - Strategy: Sell call options to increase the selling price [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 - C - 4050 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 40 - 50 [2] For Buyers - Behavior: Concerned about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs [2] - Strategy: Wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management [2] - Hedging Tool: A2603, A2605 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Long [2] - Suggested Entry Range: Wait for autumn price guidance [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions - The soybean market is waiting for new - season guidance. Mid - and downstream entities are highly cautious. Auctions are ongoing, and trade - end purchases are cautious. With the new season not fully arrived, the actual market pressure has limited increase, and prices are stable but slightly weak [2] - The rebound of soybean No. 1 futures lacks capital and fundamental support. The market volume shrank and closed lower yesterday. With capital outflows, the futures market is waiting for clearer fundamental guidance. Given the increasing likelihood of a bumper harvest, prices are expected to decline [2] - The consumption recovery represented by the double - festival stocking will face the pressure of new - season listings, and prices will be under pressure [2] Group 4: Bullish Factors - The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is almost exhausted, and traders have generally cleared their inventories. Without concentrated selling pressure, the current price decline is limited [2] - The concentrated consumption scenarios in September are gradually recovering, and there is an expectation of a recovery in edible demand [2] Group 5: Bearish Factors - On September 9, China Grain Reserves Corporation organized a one - way competitive auction of 37,112 tons of domestic soybeans, with only 1,000 tons sold, a significant drop in the transaction rate compared to the full - transaction two - way auction on the 8th, highlighting weak demand and high selling difficulty [3] - The expectation of improved quality and increased yield of new - season soybeans remains unchanged. Without extreme weather, the short - term supply surplus will be the main driving factor of the fundamentals, and prices will continue to be under pressure [3] - Attention should be paid to whether there will be two auctions this week. In the context of the upcoming new - season listing, the impact of auctions may be magnified emotionally [3] Group 6: Futures Price Changes | Contract | September 8, 2025 | September 9, 2025 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 3977 | 3968 | - 9 | - 0.23% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 3976 | 3969 | - 7 | - 0.18% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 3976 | 3970 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4020 | 4014 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4023 | 4016 | - 7 | - 0.17% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4067 | 4067 | 0 | 0.00% | [3]

南华金属日报：调整压力显现 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月10日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场冲高回落呈现调整，主要因周二晚间美非农年度基准下修91.1万人虽略超预期，且该下修幅 度为自2000年以来的最大下修，但仍不足以支撑美联储9月降息50BP预期，引发前期获利盘了结。8月底来 贵金属的强势主要受美联储宽松预期增强以及YCC干预预期下的长端美债收益率大幅下滑影响。目前市场焦 点在美联储降息预期、美联储人事调整和独立性问题以及债市风险上。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报 3663.8美元/盎司，-0.37%；美白银2512合约收报于41.355美元/盎司，-1.31%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约 收834.48元/克，+1.6%；SHFE白银2510合约收9813元/千克，+0.51%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 年内降息预期略有回落，9月降息50BP预期降温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不 变的概率为0%，降息25个基点的概率为93%，降息50个基点的概率为7%；美联储10月累计降息25个基点的 概率为21 ...

南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 269620 | 245000-263000 | 13.17% | 22.9% | 锡产业风险管理日报 2025/09/10 source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2511C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 | ...

南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79650 | 73000-80000 | 7.79% | 4.6% | source： 南华观点： 铜产业风险管理日报 2025/09/10 source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2511C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主 ...

棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/9/9 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13800-14400 | 0.0943 | 0.2738 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 库存偏高，担 | 心棉价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥 补企业的生产成本 | CF2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 14200-14400 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉 | CF601C1440 | 卖出 | 75% | 300-350 | | | | | 价上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价 ...