工业硅产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8965 | 45 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 201518 | 15179 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -48291 | -4603 广期所仓单(日,手) | 48185 | -142 | | | 12月合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | -375 | 5 11-12月合约工业硅 | -375 | 5 | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9350 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9650 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 385 | -45 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11275 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 2030 | 0 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall start - up of the olefin industry declined last week. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease in the short term. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2320 in the short term. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased last week, while the port inventory increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the port inventory may still rise [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2268 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1102546 lots, an increase of 21596 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 189610 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 13922, a decrease of 170 [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2012.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - West price difference was 217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 53 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 260 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 269 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 64 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.05 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.7 tons, an increase of 3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 48.52 tons, a decrease of 0.92 tons. The import profit of methanol was 2.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.45 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 360400 tons, an increase of 500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.08%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.31%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.38%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.04 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 21.57 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.22 tons, an increase of 2.08 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 3 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 0.92 tons. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The overall production of methanol decreased as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts was more than the output of restored production capacity. The overall pressure on the supply side was not large [3] Viewpoint Summary - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 91.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%. The load of individual enterprises in the Northwest and East China decreased. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports was still below expectations, and the提货 of mainstream social warehouses decreased significantly. The inventory at ports increased slightly. The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and the inventory at ports may still rise. Affected by cost pressure and downstream price decline, the short - term start - up of olefin enterprises may continue to decrease [3]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 本报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,802.00 | +30.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,564.00 | +22.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 529,868.00 | -13590.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 345,316.00 | -14113.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -59,965.00 | -7212.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -26,906 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 技术面，持仓减量价格回升，空头氛围减弱，关注12900阻力。操作上，建议暂时观望，或前期多单持有。 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 不锈钢产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12815 | 5 11-12月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -15 | -15 -2905 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The market has fully priced in the expectation of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of this year. Fundamentally, the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian President may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of tin ore in Myanmar is slowly recovering, while production in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, most downstream and end - user enterprises are still waiting and only making small - quantity purchases for刚需, with low restocking enthusiasm. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up, and attention should be paid to the previous high resistance. It is recommended to adopt a bullish strategy and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 286,720 yuan/ton, up 2,420 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract was down 570 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,650 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 45,084 lots, up 7,008 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 2,070 lots, down 474 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,750 tons, up 30 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,766 tons (weekly), up 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant was 5,652 tons, up 85 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 283,500 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,810 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was - 3,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 143 US dollars/ton, up 43 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons (monthly), down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% and 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,800 yuan/ton, up 1,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons (monthly), up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The two sides had in - depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues and reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, and the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3].

| | | 全产业链现有产能开工率限制等要求，并严禁新增产能，这在一定程度上提振了市场信心 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 。但政策的具体细则 及落地时间仍未明确，综上，下周投资者需密切关注 10 月底政策的实际进展以及西南 免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-10-27 地区减产的实际执行情况。今日多晶硅出现了上行表现，主力合约切换至01合约，但是现货价格并未有明 显动作，预计多晶硅上行动能进一步减弱，操作建议，逢低布局多单 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

产能利用率小幅波动。br2512合约短线预计在10800-11000区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-27 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -125 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10995 | 49618 | -17076 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 0 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) ...

据农业推进情况，后期需求持续时间有限，库存或仍呈现增加趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1600-1660区 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1640 | -2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 4 914 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 281954 | -4384 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -33395 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 5288 | -119 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 40 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -30 | 42 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 348.5 | -11.5 FOB中国主 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The macro - face shows that the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The zinc ore import volume has increased, but the domestic zinc ore processing fee has decreased, and the sulfuric acid price has dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits and limited growth in refined zinc production. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is weak, the real - estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home - appliance sectors bring some bright spots. The domestic social inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME inventory has continued to decline with a high spot premium. Technically, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,365 yuan/ton, up 10; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 55 yuan/ton, down 15; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,019.5 dollars/ton, down 3; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 213,490 lots, up 94; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 7,317 lots, up 1,141; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,724 tons, down 125; the SHFE inventory is 109,168 tons, down 459; the LME inventory is 37,600 tons, up 2,900; the SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan/ton, up 20; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 20 [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 155 yuan/ton, up 10; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 187.37 dollars/ton, down 38.52; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 80; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons; the ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons; the zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 14.47%, up 1.14%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 14.48%, up 1.15%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.36%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.82%, down 0.06% [3] Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues; the US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, and the market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts in the remaining time of the year [3] 提示关注 - There is no news today [3]

生猪产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12330 | 155 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 109501 | -2896 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 206 | 206 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -31600 | -1757 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12300 | 400 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12400 | 400 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 12100 | 400 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -30 | 245 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4038 | -4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.3 | 0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2960 | 0 | ...