Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The raw - material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly. The production profit of steel mills has improved, and it is expected that the steel production in August will increase. The end of the traditional off - season in the downstream, optimistic expectations for the peak season, and favorable domestic fiscal investment policies are likely to improve the supply - demand pattern. The inventory of domestic stainless steel has been well reduced, and the market inventory pressure has eased. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,960 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,760 lots, down 1,983 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,949 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 102,865 tons, down 60 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 915 yuan/nickel point, up 5 yuan; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 30,3643,200 square meters, up 71,807,100 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, up 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, down 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may remain as a governor. The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, which will take effect this week. On the raw - material side, the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts the supply and increases the cost, but the ferronickel production in Indonesia has rebounded significantly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to the agreement with the US. In the fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressure, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined; the electronics industry is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 267,490 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,125 US dollars/ton, down 90 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract closing price of Shanghai Tin is - 480 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 26,388 lots, down 824 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 9 lots, down 293 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,900 tons, down 50 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 510 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,283 tons, down 10 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 267,000 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,320 yuan/ton, up 1,360 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 39 US dollars/ton, down 38.5 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,350 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Powell intends to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that. The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to an agreement with the US [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕观点**: Market expectations are affected by multiple factors. In the international market, the high good - rate of US soybeans and good weather in production areas lead to strong expectations of a good harvest, while Sino - US trade tensions limit price increases. Domestically, high oil - mill operation rates and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the meal market. There are expectations of a decline in future pig inventories and promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. For rapeseed meal itself, less rapeseed is expected to arrive in the near - term, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market has been volatile recently, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **菜油观点**: In the international market, the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports may lead to inventory build - up, while the large increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. However, the decrease in oil - mill operation rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce output and supply pressure. Supported by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil prices have also increased, with increased short - term volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9615 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2724 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 68 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 285 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [2]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 188,408 lots, up 6,762 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 413,741 lots, up 13,330 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is 28,488 lots, up 4,039 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is 17,129 lots, down 3,063 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,640 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,665 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of rapeseed is 4,852.48 yuan/ton, down 2.9 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.62, down 0.02. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 58 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 84 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 210 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, down 5 million tons. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 16.52%, up 1.59 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Import Quantities**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.65 million tons, up 1.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.7 million tons, up 0.8 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 55.5 million tons, down 0.77 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.7 million tons, up 0.15 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.5 million tons, down 3.6 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.7 million tons, down 1.57 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.24 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.76%, up 0.7 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.65%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.68%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.47%, up 0.08 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Canada**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 856,096 tons, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 10.27% increase from the same period last year [2]. - **USA**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 2450. The impact of chlor - alkali profit on industry operation should be monitored in the future due to continuous subsidies for liquid chlorine in Shandong [3]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the futures holding volume was 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 17,942 lots, down 6,033 lots; the futures trading volume was 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2592 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, and the May contract was 2690 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 639 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3]. c. Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Last week, some plants in Ordos, Junzheng, Zhongtai, and Zhongyan shut down, while the plant in Yidongxing restarted. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a plant in Southwest China plans to shut down, and a plant in Northwest China will restart, with little expected change in capacity utilization [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina has good profitability, and its operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber remained stable at 84.97% week - on - week, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 58.9% week - on - week. Currently, there is no planned production cut in the alumina industry, and non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak rigid demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The bond market has stabilized and entered a recovery phase due to the lack of strong stimulus signals from the July Politburo meeting, the cooling sentiment in the equity and commodity markets, and the stable and loose capital situation. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the market sentiment recovery for a short - term upward trend and lightly allocate long positions [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.540, up 0.05%; volume 69470, down 5041 - TF主力收盘价105.755, up 0.04%; volume 52618, down 9215 - TS主力收盘价102.348, down 0.01%; volume 30573, down 3580 - TL主力收盘价119.320, up 0.06%; volume 100131, down 10262 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2509价差 - 0.37, down 0.02; T09 - TL09价差 - 10.78, down 0.06 - T2512 - 2509价差 - 0.19, up 0.04; TF09 - T09价差 - 2.79, down 0.03 - TF2512 - 2509价差0.01, up 0.02; TS09 - T09价差 - 6.19, down 0.07 - TS2512 - 2509价差0.04, up 0.03; TS09 - TF09价差 - 3.41, down 0.04 [2] 3.3 Futures Holding Positions - T主力持仓量175137, down 566; T前20名多头197252, up 6537; T前20名空头195682, up 6756; T前20名净空仓 - 1570, down 219 - TF主力持仓量124770, down 4019; TF前20名多头149549, down 1601; TF前20名空头161386, down 125; TF前20名净空仓11837, up 1476 - TS主力持仓量88731, down 1798; TS前20名多头84419, up 348; TS前20名空头90928, up 356; TS前20名净空仓6509, up 8 - TL主力持仓量102918, down 2852; TL前20名多头121685, down 3352; TL前20名空头119921, down 1720; TL前20名净空仓 - 1764, down 1632 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 220010.IB(6y): 107.1381, up 0.0969; 250007.IB(6y): 99.0955, up 0.0185 - 240020.IB(4y): 100.703, up 0.0401; 240020.IB(4y): 100.8844, up 0.0165 - 250006.IB(1.7y): 100.2737, down 0.0044; 250012.IB(2y): 99.9259, unchanged - 210005.IB(17y): 134.8379, up 0.0576; 210014.IB(18y): 131.5652, unchanged [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - 1y: 1.3450%, down 1.50bp; 3y: 1.4350%, down 0.50bp - 5y: 1.5675%, up 1.75bp; 7y: 1.6470%, up 1.70bp - 10y: 1.7080%, up 1.30bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜: 1.3376%, down 0.24bp; Shibor隔夜: 1.3150%, up 0.10bp - 银质押7天: 1.4548%, down 4.52bp; Shibor7天: 1.4320%, down 0.40bp - 银质押14天: 1.4800%, down 4.00bp; Shibor14天: 1.4820%, down 3.40bp [2] 3.7 Industry News - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. The interest income of previously issued bonds will continue to be VAT - exempt until maturity - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization" to strengthen financial services and risk prevention in the manufacturing industry [2] 3.8 Key Data to Focus On - August 5, 21:45, US July S&P Global Services PMI Final Value - August 7, 19:00, Bank of England to announce interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,457 | +40↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1461734 | +24663↑ | | 期货市场 | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -62,794 | +17567↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -5 | -7↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 55998 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 224 | +11↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,480.00 | +10.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,470.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,390.00 | +20.00↑ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 23.00 | -30.00↓ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - Egg supply is abundant due to high laying - hen inventory and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs, causing the spot price to be lower than expected. After a brief rebound from the previous low, the price has declined again recently. However, as school - opening stockpiling begins and food factories start their Mid - Autumn Festival procurement, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, the near - month contracts continue to fall due to the weak spot price and high inventory, but the far - month contracts are relatively strong, and it is advisable to take a small - scale long position in the far - month contracts [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3330 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 33794 hands, up 1117 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 300 yuan/500 kilograms, down 40 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 227835 hands, down 4144 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 8 hands, down 17 hands [2] 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 374 yuan/500 kilograms, down 5 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying - hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59; the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main producing areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, down 0.03 yuan; the national new - chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71; the average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the egg - chicken breeding profit is - 0.16 yuan/chicken, down 0.1 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 11.76 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan; the national culling age of chickens is 501 days, down 5 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.53 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.49 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.11 days, up 0.07 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.01 days, up 0.1 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7897 tons, down 135 tons [2] Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong's main producing area is 5.86 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan from the previous day; in Hebei, it is 5.61 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.80 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.08 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. Currently, the laying - hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - laid eggs from previously replenished laying hens is large, with sufficient egg supply [2]

铁矿石产业链日报 2025/8/5 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 798.50 | +8.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 384,501 | -18144↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 20.5 | -4.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16182 | +3179↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 3,600.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 102.25 | +0.75↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 830 | +2↑ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 837 | +2↑ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 721 | +3↑ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, and the weather is favorable for corn growth in the Midwest, leading to high output prospects and continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the supply is becoming more abundant, and downstream demand is average, with weak procurement enthusiasm. Corn futures prices are generally weak and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices have been oscillating weakly at a low level recently and should also be treated with a bearish mindset [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2,249 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 768,475 lots, up 21,511 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 35,985 lots, down 18,100 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 151,940 lots, down 601 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 405 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2,654 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 monthly spread is 96 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 153,533 lots, down 1,311 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,480 lots, up 5,331 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 4,450 lots, up 4,450 lots [2]. Outer - disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 407 cents/bushel, down 4 cents/bushel; the total position is 1,575,283 contracts, up 81,613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2,398.04 yuan/ton, down 3.33 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1,926.33 yuan/ton, down 2.37 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,710 yuan/ton, 2,950 yuan/ton, and 2,880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2,437.61 yuan/ton, down 2.22 yuan/ton; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 140 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, all unchanged; the predicted sown areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventories at southern ports are 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports are 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly inventory of deep - processing corn is 379.7 million tons, down 20.8 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3 percentage points [2]. - The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 114 yuan/ton, - 48 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.63%, up 1.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.51%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.15%, up 3.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.14%, up 3.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's weather report shows that the temperature in the corn - belt region is lower than normal, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans and corn. StoneX predicts that the total US corn production in 2025 will reach 16.323 billion bushels, with an average yield of 188.1 bushels per acre, while the USDA predicts 15.705 billion bushels and a yield of 181 bushels per acre [2]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation of 72%, the same as the previous week, and higher than 67% in the same period last year [2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Plastic Industry Daily Report 2025-08-05 [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558) - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - L2509 fluctuated strongly and closed at 7323 yuan/ton. The supply side saw the restart of previously shut - down plants, with last week's PE production up 3.31% to 63.55 million tons and capacity utilization up 2.14% to 81.97%. The demand side had the average downstream product start - up rate up 0.3%, with the agricultural film start - up rate stable. Production enterprise inventory decreased 13.94% to 43.28 million tons, and social inventory increased 2.49% to 57.57 million tons, with low overall inventory pressure. In the short - term, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. In the long - term, new production capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand is weak, and L2509 is under pressure. Technically, pay attention to the support around 7200 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7323, up 44; 1 - month contract was 7387, up 36; 5 - month contract was 7374, up 31; 9 - month contract was 7323, up 44 - Volume was 183396 hands, down 81362; Open interest was 301516 hands, up 1254 - 1 - 5 month contract spread was 13, up 5 - Futures前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 325807, up 11056;卖单量 was 342832, up 6077;净买单量 was - 17025, up 4979 [2] Spot Market - LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) was 7284.35, down 32.61;华东(日,元/吨) was 7367.62, down 17.86 - Basis was 5.35, up 5.39 [2] Upstream Situation - FOB:中间价:石脑油:新加坡地区(日,美元/桶) was 62.75, down 2.13; CFR:中间价:石脑油:日本地区(日,美元/吨) was 584.63, down 19.25 - 乙烯:CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 831, unchanged; CFR东北亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 821, unchanged [2] Industry Situation -开工率:PE:石化:全国(日,%) was 81.09, up 2.12 [2] Downstream Situation -开工率:聚乙烯(PE):包装膜(周,%) was 48.7, up 0.63;管材(周,%) was 28.67, down 0.16;农膜(周,%) was 12.63, unchanged [2] Option Market - 历史波动率:20日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 12.58, up 0.17; 40日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 13.41, up 0.04 - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87;平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87 [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 63.55 million tons, up 3.31% - From July 25th to 31st, the average start - up rate of PE downstream products in China increased by 0.3% - As of July 30th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 43.28 million tons, down 13.94%; As of August 2nd, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 57.57 million tons, up 2.49% [2]