Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - On Tuesday, most prices of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures rose, with the main contract EC2510 up 0.63% and the far - month contracts up about 1%. The latest SCFIS Europe Line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, down 0.8% month - on - month, and the spot indicators continued to decline. A series of tariff measures have increased the uncertainty of the global trade situation and raised the market's expectation of a new round of trade conflicts. Although the US consumer side shows resilience, inflation still has an upward risk, and China's counter - measures have further intensified the Sino - EU trade tension. Against this background, the demand expectation of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is weak, the futures price fluctuates greatly, but the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - EC main contract closing price: 1413.000, up 8.8; EC second - main contract closing price: 1690.5, up 20.20 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 255.40, unchanged; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 48.40, unchanged - EC contract basis: 876.06, unchanged - EC main contract open interest: 52108, up 1055 [1] 3.2 Spot Data - SCFIS (Europe Line) (weekly): 2297.86, down 18.70; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 1130.42, down 153.39 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1550.74, down 41.85; Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (Europe Line) (weekly): 1789.50, up 2.26 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2018.00, down 48.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1644.00, down 11.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 12235.00, up 50.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 27300.00, up 2705.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For financial institutions and exchange - business institutions, when the amount of funds remitted abroad by customers is more than RMB 5000 or the foreign - currency equivalent of $1000 in a single transaction, they should verify the remitter's identity. - US President Trump said that India is not only buying a large amount of Russian oil but also reselling a large part of it on the open market for huge profits, and will significantly increase the tariffs paid by India to the US. - The EU Commission spokesman said that the EU will suspend the implementation of the tariff counter - measures originally scheduled to take effect against the US on August 7 within six months and continue to cooperate with the US to finalize a joint statement on trade [1] 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - Eurozone June retail sales month - on - month rate at 17:00 on August 6 - US July global supply chain pressure index at 22:00 on August 6 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to provide medium - term support for the gold price. In the long - term, the logic of being bullish on gold remains unchanged. For silver, the tight supply - demand pattern and financial attributes provide bottom support, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic "anti - involution" measures may boost its industrial attributes, with room for the gold - silver ratio to repair. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices in the short - term, with attention to specific price intervals for gold and silver contracts [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 782.5 yuan/gram, up 1.08; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9075 yuan/kg, up 36. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are 218,652 hands and 367,528 hands respectively, with changes of +956 and - 3523 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts are 168,376 hands and 99,074 hands respectively, with changes of +1709 and +614 hands. The warehouse receipt quantities of gold and silver are 36,009 kg and 1,157,291 kg respectively, with changes of +120 and - 16,982 kg [2] - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 780.3 yuan/gram, up 3.13; the silver spot price is 9048 yuan/kg, up 108. The basis of the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts is - 2.2 yuan/gram and - 27 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of +2.05 and +72 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The gold ETF holdings are 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15,021.87 tons, down 34.79 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC are 223,596 and 59,407 respectively, with changes of - 29,442 and - 1213. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold are both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the annual global total demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of gold are 12.15% and 11.47% respectively, up 0.6 and 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for gold are 18.26% and 18.25% respectively, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points [2] 2. Industry News - Trump said that India resells a large part of Russian oil on the open market for huge profits, and the US will significantly increase tariffs on India. The EU will suspend the implementation of tariff counter - measures against the US for six months and continue to cooperate to finalize a trade joint statement. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and it seems appropriate to cut rates twice by 25 basis points this year. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.4% [2] 3. Operational Suggestions - Pay attention to the US trade balance and ISM services PMI data to be released tonight. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices in the short - term, with the Shanghai gold 2510 contract focusing on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver 2510 contract focusing on the range of 8900 - 9100 yuan/kg [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 5, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1182.0, up 6.92%, hitting the daily limit during the session, and two far - month contracts closed at the daily limit. The market sentiment fluctuates due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, the overall mine - end inventory is decreasing, the clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [2]. - On August 5, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1634.5, up 3.16%, and the fifth round of price increase in the spot market was implemented. Affected by high - temperature factors, the power consumption load of the State Grid hit a new high for the third time on August 4. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded, the current hot metal output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons, the hot metal output is at a high level, the coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is shifting downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1182.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1634.50 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 804,920.00 lots, up 8,071.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 52,738.00 lots, up 2,384.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 107,217.00 lots, down 7,376.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 7,202.00 lots, down 3.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread: 147.00 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread: 73.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 937.00 yuan/ton, up 57.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main contract basis: 218.00 yuan/ton, down 41.00 yuan; J main contract basis: 30.50 yuan/ton, up 35.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.771 billion tons, down 154,300 tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 1.6639 billion tons, down 92,300 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 61.51%, down 0.80 percentage points; raw coal output (monthly): 42.1074 billion tons, up 1.779 billion tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly): 3.304 billion tons, down 300,000 tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 193,600 tons, down 1,200 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 4.9394 billion tons, down 181,000 tons; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 2.709 billion tons, up 205,700 tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 9.9273 billion tons, up 73,500 tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 736,200 tons, down 65,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 8.0379 billion tons, up 42,800 tons; coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 6.2669 billion tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.87 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 steel mills (weekly): 11.17 days, down 0.28 days [2]. - Coking coal imports (monthly): 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly): 510,000 tons, down 170,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 4.06438 billion tons, down 5,890 tons; coke output (monthly): 4.1703 billion tons, down 67,300 tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 73.69%, up 0.24 percentage points; profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8.3184 billion tons, down 336,100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The peak - season market of the container shipping market has not arrived, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has declined for 8 consecutive weeks. As of August 1, the SCFI index dropped 41.85 points to 1550.74 points, a weekly decline of 2.62% [2]. - Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, causing Indian ETFs listed in the US to turn down. The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. Switzerland is facing a "negotiation race" to reduce tariffs by 39%, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy [2]. - Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in three to four days [2]. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will soon issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [2].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon industries dated August 5, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 5, the SM2509 contract closed at 6018, up 0.94%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia ferromanganese was reported at 5800, up 20 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon 2509 contract closed at 5716, up 1.03%, and the spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5550. The ferrous alloy currently has negative production profit. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a shock. [2] Data Summary Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 6018 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5716 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2] - SM futures contract holding volume: 612,782 lots, up 7945 lots; SF futures contract holding volume: 424,431 lots, up 13,926 lots [2] - Manganese silicon top 20 net positions: -89,515 lots, up 284 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net positions: -34,851 lots, up 2015 lots [2] - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 92 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 140 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - SM warehouse receipts: 77,295, down 316; SF warehouse receipts: 21,930, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese silicon index average: 5837 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; SF main contract basis: -166 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis: -218 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port: 34 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; Silica (98% Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Semi - coke (medium material Shenmu): 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese ore port inventory: 438.5 tons, down 11 tons [2] Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate: 42.18%, up 0.6%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 33.76%, up 0.43% [2] - Manganese silicon supply: 190,820 tons, up 4340 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 104,400 tons, up 2100 tons [2] - Manganese silicon manufacturer inventory: 164,000 tons, down 41,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory: 65,500 tons, up 3400 tons [2] - Manganese silicon national steel mill inventory: 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2] - Five major steel types' manganese silicon demand: 123,715 tons, up 45 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 19,922 tons, down 143.7 tons [2] Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2] - Crude steel output: 83,184,000 tons, down 3,361,000 tons [2] Industry News - Trump threatens to significantly increase Indian tariffs, causing Indian ETFs listed in the US to turn down. The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. [2] - Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days. [2] - The China Federation of Machinery Industry states that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will soon issue steady - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. [2] - Affected by high temperatures, on August 4, the power consumption load of the State Grid reached a new high for the third time, reaching 1.222 billion kilowatts. [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/8/5 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,233.00 | +29↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1708832 | -33803↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -93259 | +4270↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -73 | -6↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm and will fluctuate repeatedly. With the short - term recovery of the slaughter volume from a low level, it will put pressure on price fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to sell short at high prices and set stop - losses [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 13,885 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main contract position was 35,710 lots, down 2,540 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 300 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,653 lots, down 575 lots [2] Spot Market - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu were 14,100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), 13,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 15,500 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The main live pig basis was 215 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory was 42,4470,000 heads (up 7160,000 heads), and the inventory of breeding sows was 4,0420,000 heads (up 40,000 heads). The CPI year - on - year was 0.1% (up 0.2 percentage points). The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,940 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), the spot price of corn was 2,398.04 yuan/ton (down 3.33 yuan), and the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 924.08 (down 9.46). The monthly output of feed was 27,621,000 tons (up 981,000 tons), the price of binary breeding sows was 1,638 yuan/head (unchanged), the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 116.78 yuan/head (down 45.39 yuan), and the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was 43.85 yuan/head (down 18.31 yuan). The monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons (unchanged), and the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg (unchanged) [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32,160,000 heads (up 1,390,000 heads), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 470.76 billion yuan (up 12.94 billion yuan) [2] Industry News - Mysteel data showed that on August 5, 2025, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 112,554 heads, a 0.97% increase from the previous period. On Tuesday, the live pig 2509 contract closed up 0.04%. The supply side saw an increase in supply as the slaughter rhythm resumed after a short - term reduction at the beginning of the month. The demand side had sufficient pig supply, and the slaughterhouse opening rate rebounded slightly, but the high temperature still suppressed the willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited rebound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices rose collectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks slightly stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, and the decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. Although the US - China trade reached a 90 - day tariff truce extension, the market is expected to enter a wide - range shock due to the decline of the three domestic PMI indices in July and the lack of incremental policies after the Politburo meeting. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) was at 4082.0, up 34.0; IF sub - main contract (2508) was at 4095.0, up 35.0. IH main contract (2509) was at 2791.0, up 23.0; IH sub - main contract (2508) was at 2789.4, up 22.2. IC main contract (2509) was at 6198.6, up 40.8; IC sub - main contract (2508) was at 6265.4, up 44.8. IM main contract (2509) was at 6682.0, up 59.4; IM sub - main contract (2508) was at 6754.4, up 60.0 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1305.6, up 10.6; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2170.4, up 5.0 [2]. - The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts varied. For instance, IF current - quarter - current - month was - 44.0, down 0.4; IH current - quarter - current - month was 3.4, up 1.4 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were - 28,119.00, up 31.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 15,955.00, down 81.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 14,642.00, up 452.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 48,013.00, up 1277.0 [2]. Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4103.45, up 32.8; the Shanghai 50 was at 2790.73, up 21.3. The CSI 500 was at 6303.24, up 41.5; the CSI 1000 was at 6787.48, up 47.8 [2]. - The basis of each main contract also changed. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 21.4, down 3.5; the IH main contract basis was 0.3, down 0.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 16,158.21 billion yuan, up 976.19 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 19,913.13 billion yuan, up 114.56 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume was 1946.91 billion yuan, down 229.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 72.04%, up 0.48%. Shibor was 1.315%, up 0.001% [2]. Industry News - In July, the domestic official manufacturing PMI declined from the previous month and had been in the contraction range for 4 consecutive months. The non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were still above the boom - bust line but also declined from the previous values [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US, and the tariffs will take effect on August 7, 2025 [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far less than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% [2]. Key Data to Watch - China's July trade data will be released on August 7 at 9:30; July financial data will be released on August 8 at 16:00; July PPI and CPI will be released on August 9 at 9:30 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices due to tight copper ore supply remains. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down, and the demand for copper may show a trend of weakening external demand, short - term weak domestic demand, and long - term improvement. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,731 dollars/ton, up 44 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 159,866 lots, down 3,692 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures were 3,657 lots, down 4,571 lots. The LME copper inventory was 139,575 tons, down 2,175 tons; the SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 72,543 tons, down 880 tons; the SHFE warrant of cathode copper was 18,767 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,650 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 50.5 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 35 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 52.73 dollars/ton, down 3.48 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 42.09 dollars/kiloton, up 0.54 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,000 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of scrap copper (1 bright copper wire) in Shanghai was 54,840 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of scrap copper (2 copper, 94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.56%, down 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.16%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.51%, down 0.006%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.17, down 0.026 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut rates by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching. The negative impact of the US tariff policy is emerging, and the US economy shows multiple weak signals. Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. The central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in the first half of the year reached 44.3%. It is expected that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in July will be 1.18 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the supply of new houses decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/8/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | | 67,840.00 | -1080.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -170,744.00 | +3844.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | | 232,062.00 | +24292.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -540.00 | -700.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | | 12,603.00 | +5998.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | | 71,200.00 | -150.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 69,100.00 | -150.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | | 3,360.00 | +930.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industry expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains high but growth slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventory has a slight accumulation, and long - term expectations are still positive after policy - guided optimization. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,560 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,227 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; that of alumina was 12 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 225,945 lots, down 1,091 lots; that of the alumina main contract was 124,750 lots, down 4,932 lots. The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 11,500 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 463,725 tons, up 925 tons. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory in the SHFE was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts in the SHFE were 46,649 tons, down 2,009 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 11,315 lots, up 9,377 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.02. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,005 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 45 yuan/ton, down 665 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium/discount was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 2.62 dollars/ton, up 0.02 dollars. The basis of alumina was - 5 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The alumina production was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the alumina开工 rate was 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons. The import of alumina was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons; the export of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; that in Shandong metal scrap was 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export of aluminum scrap was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - related**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity was 4,520.70 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum开工 rate was 97.68%, up 0.03 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 49.70 million tons, down 30,781 tons. The production of aluminum materials was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - **Trade - related**: The import of primary aluminum was 192,314.50 tons; the export of primary aluminum was 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy was 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.50%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 9.31%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 9.48%, down 0.0006 [2]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.22, down 0.0494 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and may cut by 50 basis points if the unemployment rate rises further. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements around the end of the third quarter [2]. - **Industry - specific News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue steady - growth work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The expected wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in July were 1.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. In August, the new - house supply decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [2].