研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 802.50 | -2.00↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 551,548 | +8698↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 23 | 0.00 I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16322 | +7588↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 600.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 106.4 | -0.76↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 875 | -1↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 872 | -1↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 804 | -3↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 69 | +1↑ | | | 铁矿石62% ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract faced pressure and pulled back. The macro - situation shows that the leaders of China and the US had a meeting in Busan, South Korea, agreeing to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade fields. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase with a capacity utilization rate of 46.6%, rising for two consecutive weeks; terminal demand increased while inventory declined for three consecutive weeks. Overall, the supply - demand environment of rebar has improved. However, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of the Sino - US summit, the market's mainstream funds reduced long positions and increased short positions, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are pulling back from high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume was 1,894,916 lots, up 909 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 68,256 lots, down 20,857 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 64 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the SHFE was 145,840 tons, down 300 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 212 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,340.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 184.00 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 80.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 807.00 yuan/wet ton, up 4.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,000.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 46.60%, up 1.21%. The factory inventory of sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 992,000 tons, up 91,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 0.50%, down 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 13.90%, down 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to have small fluctuations. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [3][4] - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have increased the new order transactions and shipment volume of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased this week [3] - The start - up rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the autumn fertilizer tail orders are approaching the end, and the start - up rate of compound fertilizer next week is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The main contract's open interest is 270109 lots, down 240 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31434 lots, up 3175 lots [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1630, 1580, 1590, 1600, and 1590 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [3] - FOB Baltic is 348.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,554,300 tons, down 75,900 tons [3] - The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.32%, up 2.29%; the daily output is 182,600 tons, down 6000 tons [3] - The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, up 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 27.71%, up 3.53%; the melamine start - up rate is 48.3%, down 6.88% [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, down 3300 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,554,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66% [3] - As of October 30, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 47.62% [3] - The domestic urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the probability of output increase is high next week [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the caustic soda price was weak, but due to the high - operating - rate of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC, the consumption of liquid chlorine was smooth, and its price continued to rise, leading to a wider profit margin in the chlor - alkali industry. In the fourth quarter, as it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance and enterprises have sufficient willingness to operate under the current profit level, the supply pressure may remain high. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to run weakly. For the futures, as there is an expectation of cost - based production cuts in alumina in the future, and the impact after implementation is greater than the replenishment demand of new alumina plants, the spot price is at a premium over the 01 contract. In terms of valuation, there is still room for compression in the profit level corresponding to the 01 contract. Attention should be paid to the realization of the alumina production cut expectation in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 165,100 lots, an increase of 31,060 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 30,729 lots, a decrease of 16,452 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 362,389 lots, an increase of 60,520 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [3]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 183 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.5%. From October 18th to 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina was 86.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. From October 24th to 30th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.64%, an increase of 1.03% compared with last week; the operating rate of printing and dyeing was 68.32%, an increase of 1.01% compared with last week. As of October 30th, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 442,600 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84%, and a year - on - year increase of 52.42%. From October 24th to 30th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 626 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - New season global sugar surplus estimates mostly increased, Thailand and India's sugar production recovery has a key impact on the supply side, with India expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, initially estimated at 2 million tons [2] - In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total production expected to be around 1.4 million tons, and short - term northern beet sugar supply will gradually increase [2] - China's sugar imports in September 2025 were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2] - Thailand's syrup and pre - mixed sugar powder production enterprises are mostly in a "suspended import" state, and it is expected that syrup imports will be restricted again, which is positive for the domestic market, and there is support below the short - term sugar price [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 379,832 lots, a decrease of 11,203 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,541, a decrease of 84; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 56,862 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2] 产业情况 - The national sugar sales rate was 89.98%, an increase of 1%; the monthly sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total Brazilian sugar export volume was 3.2458 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 1,571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) was 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.42%, a decrease of 1.43%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 6.43%, a decrease of 1.42%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.05%, an increase of 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.28%, an increase of 0.17% [2] 行业消息 - Rabobank reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to be 39.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season and 39.5 - 42.1 million tons in the 2026/27 season [2] - ICE raw sugar futures closed higher on Wednesday, hitting a nearly five - year low during the session. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.05 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.42 cents per pound. The new season's global sugar surplus estimates are mostly raised [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory accumulation trend has slowed, but the inventory pressure remains high. The cost of the calcium carbide method has increased and losses have deepened; the cost of the ethylene method has decreased and losses have also deepened. This week, the 500,000 - ton Inner Mongolia Yili and 500,000 - ton Shandong Xinfa Phase II plants are restarting, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rebound to a relatively high level. In the long - term, the new capacity launch will further increase the supply pressure. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down demand growth, and the downstream start - up is expected to change little. Coal is expected to remain strong, and the supply of calcium carbide is affected by the power - use policy in the northwest, while downstream plants are restarting one after another, so the raw material cost of PVC is expected to rise. The supply - demand drive of PVC remains weak, but the stronger cost side raises the lower limit of valuation. In the short - term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and technically, attention should be paid to the pressure around 4900 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,045,974 lots, an increase of 205,951 lots. The open interest was 1,161,917 lots, a decrease of 42,460 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 896,091 lots, a decrease of 7,941 lots; the short positions were 1,018,333 lots, a decrease of 24,189 lots; and the net long positions were - 122,242 lots, an increase of 16,248 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4815 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4650.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.08 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4820 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4731.88 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 106 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2706.67 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China was 2555 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 488 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia was 518 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia was 184 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.57%, a decrease of 0.12%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 74.38%, a decrease of 0.33%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.64%, an increase of 0.38%. The total social inventory of PVC was 554,700 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 505,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons; in the South China region was 49,500 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2] 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.37%, an increase of 0.59%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.86%, an increase of 0.15%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.84%, a decrease of 0.74%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.85%, a decrease of 0.72% [2] 3.7行业消息 - From October 18th to 24th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, a decrease of 0.12% compared with the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 1.27% to 49.86%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 41.2%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 35.87%. As of October 30th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% compared with last week. From October 18th to 24th, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5144 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5412 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 723 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method decreased to - 560 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View The egg price is at a low level, and the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting the price. Coupled with the decrease in temperature, which is conducive to the storage and transportation of eggs, the shipping speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of the spot price. Driven by the rising spot price, the near - month contracts have also strengthened significantly. However, the in - production inventory of laying hens remains high, and old hens have not been over - culled. High production capacity is still the main concern in the market, which may limit the upside space. Recently, the egg futures price has shown a low - level rebound trend, but the high - production capacity pressure still exists, which may limit its rebound space, so it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3157 yuan/500 kilograms, down 8 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 12304 hands, an increase of 1976 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 104 yuan/500 kilograms, up 5 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 201570 hands, down 15569 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 38 hands, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 2.92 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is - 236 yuan/500 kilograms, up 8 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (with 2015 = 100), up 0.86; the national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (with 2015 = 100), up 31.02; the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main producing areas is 2.65 yuan/feather, up 0.05 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 76.65 (with 2015 = 100), up 3.3; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan; the breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.45 yuan/head, up 0.01 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 8.58 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan; the national culling age of chickens is 507 days, down 3 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.96 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.69 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.55 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.04 days, down 0.01 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13215.79 tons, up 94.76 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7498 tons, an increase of 118 tons [2]. Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, the main producing area, is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Hebei is 5.69 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Guangdong is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Beijing is 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply - side pressure is small as the import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal futures continued to fluctuate and close higher, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. Affected by the decline of palm oil, the rapeseed oil price has been in a weak adjustment recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9529 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2401 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 640.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 3.4 Canadian dollars), and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5270 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 319 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 66 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 226014 lots (down 7051 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 350537 lots (down 1311 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 4403 lots (up 921 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 101718 lots (up 11227 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7540 pieces (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 3915 pieces (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2480 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9917.5 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7891.02 yuan/ton (up 28.82 yuan). The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 275 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 79 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8390 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1460 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 490 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), and the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 11.53 million tons (down 13.13 million tons), the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons (up 2 million tons), and the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons (down 5.57 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 589 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 2.93% (down 0.27%) [2]. - Inventories: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 2 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventories: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 4.2 million tons (down 1 million tons), the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.71 million tons (down 0.07 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 49.4 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 26.75 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 2.7 million tons (down 0.2 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 21.3 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.35 million tons (down 1.28 million tons), and the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.22 million tons (down 0.75 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month production of feed is 3128.7 million tons (up 201.5 million tons), and the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan (up 12.9 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.81% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.67% (down 0.97%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.56% (up 2.26%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.55% (up 2.26%) [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.44% (up 2.21%), the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.56% (up 0.55%), the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.21% (down 0.37%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.69% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 29 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures rose, and trading volume jumped, supported by the hope that the oversupply of North American vegetable oil supply would start to improve. The January rapeseed contract closed up 2.50 Canadian dollars at 641.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - A survey showed that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 84%. As the US soybean harvest advanced, the supply - side pressure continued to constrain its market price. After the China - US presidential meeting on October 30, the specific trade agreement was still unclear, and the market's concern about the US soybean demand prospects resurfaced, and the US soybean futures price also significantly declined from its high [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed开机率 and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, the development of China - Canada and China - US trade relations, and the initial ruling of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity outputs from recovery. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises increased this week, while the port inventory fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will accumulate next week. The overall operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry decreased this week, but it is expected to increase next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2208 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 1320963 lots, an increase of 123548 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 253892 lots, a decrease of 33714 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 11997, a decrease of 125 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2020 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 150 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 258 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 324 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 267 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 66 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.09 dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 99.73 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 50.92 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 7.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88 yuan. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 376100 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 38.87%, a decrease of 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 74.4%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, an increase of 4.67 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points. The disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 773 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.45%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.61 tons, an increase of 1.57 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.36%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 21.56 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 150.65 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 tons. The domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 91.28%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, industrial silicon prices are expected to decline with a small range. Southwest regions will see production cuts while northwest regions increase production. Demand from polysilicon is uncertain, while demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts upward price movement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the position of the main contract was 227,764 lots, up 7,102 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,526 lots, down 3,468 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 47,410 lots, up 72 lots; the closing price of the December contract was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between November - December contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 2,110 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; monthly imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; monthly exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly production of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation capacity exceeded thermal power for the first time, indicating that the energy revolution has entered a deeper stage. In the industrial silicon market, in Sichuan and Yunnan, production costs are rising as they transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, and some enterprises have stopped production. In Xinjiang, production is increasing due to stable and low - cost power supply [2] Demand Analysis - In the silicone segment, inventory is lower than the historical average, production profit has slightly recovered but is still in the loss range, and there is some rigid - demand procurement support. In the polysilicon segment, inventory is as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average, and there is a risk of weakening demand support. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate is stable, demand is high, but the marginal impact on prices is limited [2]