Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US dollar and short - covering, the price of US cotton futures has stabilized and rebounded, awaiting the weekly export report [2]. - In the domestic market, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with no news on quotas and tight supply before the new cotton is launched. The consumption off - season characteristics of the textile industry are evident, with mainland spinning mills having no profit, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and enterprises purchasing raw materials mainly for immediate needs [2]. - In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased. The highest temperature in Xinjiang has decreased this week, reducing the impact of weather factors. Currently, cotton is in the process of roll - over. The cotton 2601 contract shows a rebound trend. Although the current supply is tight, weak downstream demand, increased new - crop area and output, reduced influence of weather factors, and market expectations for quotas are expected to limit the rebound space, resulting in overall volatile fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,690, up 35; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,710, up 40 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 27,507, down 1,391; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): 22, down 30 [2]. - Main contract open interest: cotton (daily, lots): 281,472, down 10,958; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 13,482, up 2,614 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 8,464, down 99; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 88, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,178, up 9; China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,640, down 30 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,480, up 59; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,154, up 18 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 14,282, up 49; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 24,035, up 19 [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,462, down 39; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 2.4 [2]. - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 3, down 1; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 110,000, up 10,000 [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 936, up 5; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 282.98, down 62.89 [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 23.86, up 1.52; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 35.46, up 2.57 [2]. - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.79, up 1.09; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 206.5, up 11.4 [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,526,671.4, up 168,897.7; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,204,820.7, down 58,356.6 [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on cotton (%): 10.36, up 2.2; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on cotton (%): 10.36, up 2.2 [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 11.25, down 0.02; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 8.05, down 1.13 [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 2.1571 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1485 million tons (a decrease of 6.44%). Among them, the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang was 1.4111 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1322 million tons (a decrease of 8.57%), and the commercial inventory of cotton in the inland area was 0.4106 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0016 million tons (an increase of 0.39%) [2]. - On Tuesday, the December ICE cotton contract closed up 0.81%. On Wednesday, the cotton 2509 contract rose 0.15%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.23% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply remains at a high level but the growth rate slows down, and demand is weak due to the off - season. The long - term expectation is still positive after policy - guided optimization. Option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand weakens in the off - season. The operation suggestion is to conduct oscillating trades with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 20,650 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 3,241 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina decreased by 1008 and 6436 hands respectively. LME aluminum cancelled warrants increased by 1575 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 2300 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.05, up 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan, and its main contract position increased by 38 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,560 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 635 yuan to 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 20 yuan to - 20 yuan. The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount is - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 0.12 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina开工率 is 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons [2]. - The import of alumina increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons, and the export decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons. The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan and Shandong metal scrap markets remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1 million tons to 49.70 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum开工率 is 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons. The export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.12 percentage points to 9.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 8.77%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main Shanghai aluminum contract decreased by 0.0085 to 8.63%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0107 to 1.21 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June, the US merchandise and services trade deficit shrank by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion, the lowest since September 2023, mainly due to companies cutting purchases after a large - scale import wave at the beginning of the year [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank encourage long - term funds to support digital infrastructure construction. The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025 to 24.35 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumption and service industry loan subsidy policies. In July, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated at a low level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The cost - support logic of tight copper ore supply for copper prices remains. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down to some extent, while the demand is in the off - season but the consumption expectation is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,280 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,679 dollars/ton, up 40.5 dollars. The spread between the main contracts of different months was - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 158,574 lots, down 1,292 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was 3,729 lots, up 3,435 lots. The LME copper inventory was 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 72,543 tons, down 880 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,000 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 20,346 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 78,350 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 78,360 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 58 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 70 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 67.32 dollars/ton, down 14.59 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 42.09 dollars/kiloton, up 0.54 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,000 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 55,090 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,300 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.1%, down 1.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.11%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.05%, down 0.0046 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, up 0.0229 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US trade deficit in goods and services in June shrank by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion, the lowest since September 2023. The total import value decreased by 3.7%, and consumer goods imports dropped to the lowest since September 2020 [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank encourage long - term funds to focus on future - oriented industries and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2]. - The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025, expecting 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumer and service - industry loan discount policies, and major banks have responded positively. At least three regions have implemented consumer loan discount policies with a discount rate of about 1.5% [2]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the logistics industry prosperity index in July was 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, indicating that the logistics business volume continued to expand but at a slower pace [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. Industrial silicon rose due to the increase in coking coal today, but the spot price did not perform well. It is expected that the spot will drag down the upward movement of futures. In terms of operation, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 208,736 lots, a week - on - week increase of 56,958 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 66,326 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 9,647 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,806 lots, a week - on - week increase of 494 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the Si main contract was 550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,750 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output was 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume was 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 70.08%, a week - on - week increase of 4.97%; the monthly aluminum alloy output was 1.669 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Special Energy - Saving Supervision Tasks for the Polysilicon Industry in 2025, involving 41 enterprises. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. The resumption of production in the south - western production areas during the wet season is accelerating, and many enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have started furnaces. New production capacity is expected to be released next week, mainly from small and medium - sized enterprises, which will challenge the current price. Meanwhile, the production cut in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the north - western and south - western regions will gradually appear. There is also a large potential for production capacity release [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the demand side, in the organic silicon sector, the spot price of organic silicon has risen, the production profit of enterprises has slightly declined, the operating rate of enterprises has increased, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are currently reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and the downstream photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with a significant decline in demand. Although the output increased slightly last week, the increase is limited. It is expected that the merger and reorganization of production capacity will intensify, and the potential production capacity will be gradually released in August, with a slight increase in the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices are falling, and they are in a passive de - stocking state, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down [2]

数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 低位止盈离场，提振盘面有所回弹。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-08-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | | | | 1789 | | | | 3378 | 48 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -32005 | | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | -246 | 54 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 208515 | -19320 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 13 | 5 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 2.89 | -0.07 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -490 | -116 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 6, 2025 - Report Type: Rapeseed Industry Daily Report 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract): 9562 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract): 2745 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - Rapeseed oil monthly spread (9 - 1): 47 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (9 - 1): 282 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Main contract positions of rapeseed oil: 181,067 lots, down 7,341 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal: 397,721 lots, down 16,020 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil: 25,377 lots, down 3,111 lots; for rapeseed meal: 18,220 lots, up 1,091 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil: 3,487 sheets, unchanged; for rapeseed meal: 1,200 sheets, unchanged [2] - Futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active): 672.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 10.8 Canadian dollars; futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract): 5071 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2] Spot Market - Spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu: 9680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong: 2690 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - Average price of rapeseed oil: 9745 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; import cost price of imported rapeseed: 4794.74 yuan/ton, down 57.74 yuan [2] - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; oil - meal ratio: 3.6, down 0.02 [2] - Basis of rapeseed oil main contract: 65 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; basis of rapeseed meal main contract: - 55 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - Spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing: 8550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil: 1230 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: 8950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil: 780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang: 2920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 230 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast (monthly, million tons): 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual forecast of rapeseed production (monthly, thousand tons): 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Total rapeseed import volume (monthly, ten thousand tons): 18.45 ten thousand tons, down 15.1 ten thousand tons; imported rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market: 296 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills (weekly, ten thousand tons): 10 ten thousand tons, down 5 ten thousand tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed oil mills: 16.52%, up 1.59% [2] - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil (monthly, ten thousand tons): 15 ten thousand tons, up 4 ten thousand tons; import volume of rapeseed meal (monthly, ten thousand tons): 27.03 ten thousand tons, up 7.56 ten thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory (weekly, ten thousand tons): 10.65 ten thousand tons, up 1.1 ten thousand tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory (weekly, ten thousand tons): 2.7 ten thousand tons, up 0.8 ten thousand tons [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in East China (weekly, ten thousand tons): 55.5 ten thousand tons, down 0.77 ten thousand tons; rapeseed meal inventory in East China (weekly, ten thousand tons): 32.57 ten thousand tons, down 0.84 ten thousand tons [2] - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi (weekly, ten thousand tons): 5.7 ten thousand tons, up 0.15 ten thousand tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China (weekly, ten thousand tons): 22.5 ten thousand tons, down 3.6 ten thousand tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 (weekly, ten thousand tons): 1.7 ten thousand tons, down 1.57 ten thousand tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 (weekly, ten thousand tons): 2.87 ten thousand tons, down 0.56 ten thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly feed production: 2762.1 ten thousand tons, up 98.1 ten thousand tons; monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail: 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2] - Monthly edible vegetable oil production: 476.9 ten thousand tons, up 41.8 ten thousand tons [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 22.84%, up 0.03%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 22.84%, up 0.03% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 19.83%, up 0.07%; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 16.98%, down 0.66% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 13.3%, up 0.97%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 13.31%, up 0.98% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 11.36%, down 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 12.53%, up 0.06% [2] 2. Industry News - On August 5, 2025, ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the weakening of US soybean oil and the mild weather in Canada alleviating concerns about rapeseed supply shortages. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 10.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 672.20 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 9.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 684.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remains at a high level for the same period, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2] 3. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint - In the international market, the weakening of US soybean oil and Canada's mild weather ease concerns about rapeseed supply shortages. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Sino - US trade tensions also limit the price of the US soybean market [2] - In the domestic market, the operating rate of oil mills is relatively high, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, suppressing the price of the meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in the future pig inventory, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the lack of progress in Sino - US talks increases the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases [2] - For rapeseed meal itself, the arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, reducing supply pressure, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with an overall strong and volatile trend [2] 4. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint - In the international market, the hot weather in the Canadian plains has decreased, and favorable rainfall has appeared, bringing pressure to the market. The trade of rapeseed between China and Australia is expected to resume, increasing supply pressure in the long - term. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased in July while exports declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, restricting palm oil prices. However, Indonesia's exports have increased significantly, and its inventory is at a low level. Positive news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sectors boosts the oil market [2] - In the domestic market, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of domestic vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high, restricting the market price. However, the operating rate of oil mills has decreased, significantly reducing the output pressure of rapeseed oil. At the same time, the purchase of rapeseed in the third quarter is relatively small, reducing supply - side pressure. The rapeseed oil futures market opened higher and then declined slightly, weaker than soybean oil and palm oil, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [2] 5. Key Points of Attention - The operating rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions reported by Myagric on Mondays - The development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The actual tin ore output from Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. In July, the increase in smelting output was due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, after the end of the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The electronics industry has entered the off - season, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream enterprises are still in the traditional consumption off - season, with overall orders being rather dull. The recent high prices have suppressed the restocking sentiment of downstream enterprises. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the battle around the M60 line. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 266,940 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,300 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts for Shanghai tin is - 470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract position for Shanghai tin is 24,719 lots, down 1,669 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is 193 lots, up 184 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,875 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 485 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,358 tons, up 75 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,820 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 660 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 42 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the chairman through the vacancy of governors, and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India. The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The ISM services PMI is close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that if the non - farm data deteriorates further, the Fed may cut interest rates aggressively by 50 basis points in September, with the terminal interest rate at 3% or lower. The central bank and other seven departments will provide financial support for new industrialization and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead remained flat this week, while demand gradually weakened. Considering anti - involution speculation, it is recommended to place long orders on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,975.5 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars [2] - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 105,235 lots, down 7,502 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,127 lots, down 1,591 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 58,656 tons, down 351 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, down 1,250 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,940 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 130 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.92 dollars/ton, up 5.94 dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points [2] - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.49%, up 3.68 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 34,100 tons, up 600 tons [2] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,107.14 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries was 1,771.53 points, up 38.86 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [2] - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump will announce tariffs on drugs and chips in the next week, with a maximum drug tariff of 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours. If the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US, a 35% tariff will be imposed. The US trade deficit in June was - 60.2 billion dollars, the smallest since September 2023 [2] - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The ISM new order index in July dropped from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders contracted for the fourth time in five months [2] - Trump said Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance [2] - Trump may soon announce a new Fed chairman, with four candidates. Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2] - Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian energy after the meeting between the Middle East envoy and Russia on Wednesday [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Affected by the decline in lead prices, the operating rate of primary lead smelters increased, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead remains strong compared to recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices continue to fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions [2] - For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. From the actual resumption of production rhythm, the resumption progress is slow due to cost inversion [2] - Today, the price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric batteries remained stable, with prices in some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The tax - free price of waste electric batteries was reported at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton, and the purchase price at the recycling end was reported at 9,820 - 9,880 yuan/ton, following the increase of manufacturers [2] - The lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer area of lead, is approaching the traditional peak consumption season. However, in the context of rising prices, spot transactions are dull, and downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Although lead - acid batteries have seen price increases, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, which greatly suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories to start production. If the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream enterprises continues, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand side will remain weak [2] - Recently, the inventory has shown a slight upward trend, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. Although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the peak season, from the current inventory data, demand has not effectively driven inventory clearance. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The refinery profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased due to rising zinc ore imports, continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. The import loss is expanding, resulting in a decrease in imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and the processing enterprise operating rate has decreased year - on - year. Zinc prices have fallen recently, and downstream buyers purchase on demand at low prices, but overall trading is still dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been adjusted downwards. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are correcting, with both bulls and bears trading cautiously. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,380 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,754 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 205,615 lots, down 5,585 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,298 lots, up 5,160 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,807 tons, down 100 tons; the SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; the LME inventory is 97,000 tons, down 3,825 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 22,390 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.87 dollars/ton, up 0.09 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,950 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventories are 87,300 tons, up 3,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 13.99%, up 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 13.99%, up 0.19% - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, down 0.47% [3] 3.7 Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a board member. The control of the Fed lies in Powell's hands, not Trump's - The EU Commission spokesman said that according to the agreement between the EU and the US, the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and this extension will take effect this week [3]

报告行业投资评级 - No investment rating provided in the report 报告的核心观点 - Philippine nickel ore supply has rebounded, but domestic nickel ore port inventories have declined, leading to a tight raw material situation [2] - High raw material prices and a downward trend in nickel prices have caused profit losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts [2] - Stainless steel mills' profit margins have been compressed, resulting in production cuts for the 300 - series; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but ternary battery demand has declined [2] - Recently, nickel prices have fallen, leading to increased spot premiums and decreased domestic social inventories, while overseas LME inventories have increased [2] - Technically, with declining positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears. Attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level, and short - term fluctuations and adjustments are expected. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 期货市场 - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,910 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5105 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars; the position volume of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 90,543 lots, down 4,924 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 21,786 lots, up 1,182 lots; LME nickel inventories are 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories are 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; LME nickel cancelled warrants total 15,870 tons, up 3,558 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 20,923 tons, down 247 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.74 dollars/ton, down 7.95 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons [2] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.26 million metal tons, down 0.13 million metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 193.2 million tons [2] 下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.4 million tons, down 4.07 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.8 million tons, up 0.23 million tons [2] 行业消息 - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that [2] - The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and the extension will take effect this week [2]