Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with inventory being depleted. The upstream mines still have a strong sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, and the rising lithium price drives up the ore price. The new production lines of domestic spodumene and salt lakes are expected to operate normally, increasing the supply of lithium carbonate. The downstream battery materials are in the peak consumption season, and the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles may stimulate pre - year car - buying enthusiasm, leading to a steady increase in domestic lithium carbonate demand [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 52.56%, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.8946%. The call open interest in the options market dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish, with implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,280 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 193,907 lots, up 5,502 lots; the open interest of the main contract is 525,184 lots, up 14,744 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,360 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEX are 27,290 lots/ton, down 331 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,280 yuan/ton, down 1,050 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 985 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,770 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 10.90 million yuan/ton, up 0.15 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 164,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 156,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.58 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,617,000 vehicles, up 226,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,604,000 vehicles, up 209,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.09%, up 0.55 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 11,228,000 vehicles, up 2,908,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 1.758 million vehicles, up 830,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 25.64%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 27.25%, up 0.13 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call open interest is 194,164 contracts, up 20,201 contracts; the total put open interest is 102,053 contracts, down 3,116 contracts; the total open - interest put - call ratio is 52.56%, down 7.8946 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.31%, down 0.0228 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that China's share in the world's automobile market has been increasing. In September, China's share rebounded to a good level of 38%, 2 percentage points higher than last year. In 2024, China accounted for 34.2% of the world's automobiles; from January to September 2025, China accounted for 34.5% of the world's automobiles [2]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers disclosed their October sales data. XPeng's October delivery volume hit a record high, exceeding 40,000 units for two consecutive months. Xiaomi's October delivery volume continued to exceed 40,000 units. Leapmotor's total delivery in October reached 70,289 units, a year - on - year increase of over 84%. NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, setting a record high for three consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 92.6% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. ZEEKR delivered 61,636 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and the monthly sales volume exceeded 60,000 units for the first time. BYD's group brand and public relations general manager, Li Yunfei, said that BYD sold 441,706 vehicles in October, hitting a new high this year. The cumulative sales from January to October were 3,701,852 vehicles, and the cumulative new energy sales exceeded 14.2 million vehicles [2]. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers in October was 52.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The prosperity of the automobile circulation industry has improved. The estimated monthly terminal sales volume of passenger cars in October was about 2.4 million vehicles [2]. - The National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The freight rate market is currently highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended that investors exercise caution, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC2512 closed at 1851.700, down 30.2; EC2602 closed at 1592.2, up 8.5. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 259.50, up 9.10; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 667.30, up 24.40. The EC contract basis was -538.99, down 47.70. The EC main contract open interest was 29320, down 2045 [1]. Spot Market Data - The SCFIS (European Line) was 1208.71, down 104.00 week - on - week; the SCFIS (US West Line) was 1107.32, up 159.83 week - on - week. The SCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1550.70, up 147.24 week - on - week. The CCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1021.39, up 28.65 week - on - week; the CCFI (European Line) was 1323.81, up 30.69 week - on - week. The Baltic Dry Index was 1966.00, up 17.00 day - on - day; the Panamax Freight Index was 1821.00, up 28.00 day - on - day. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 23368.00, down 882.00 [1]. Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system", including optimizing the base money supply mechanism, improving the market - oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, etc. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded positively [1]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung - gun to discuss maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain and strengthening regional and multilateral cooperation [1]. Market Analysis - The freight rate support has weakened as the latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index decreased by 104 points week - on - week, a 7.9% decline. However, mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's successful price support in mid - to - late October has boosted market confidence [1]. - The container handling business at the Port of Rotterdam has come to a complete standstill, increasing regional supply chain uncertainties. The positive results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation [1]. - Geopolitically, there are attempts to start cease - fire negotiations, but the external mediation is at a deadlock. The eurozone economy shows resilience, and the German investor confidence index is expected to continue to improve in November [1]. Key Data to Watch - On November 4, the release of the US September trade balance (in billions of dollars) and the US September factory orders month - on - month rate are to be determined [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The steel market is facing a mix of long - and short - term factors. The mainstream short - position holdings have increased more, and the market is under short - term pressure. The operation strategy is to expect a sideways - to - bearish trend, with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,079 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,919,017 lots, up 39,567 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 93,441 lots, down 27,034 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 66 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,640 tons, down 1,200 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,354 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 191 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing is 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of October 31, 20 cities have introduced 26 real - estate market relaxation policies, and more cities may follow to improve and standardize construction design plans and calculation rules. The US Treasury Secretary said that the China - US trade agreement may be signed this week, and China is willing to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US relations [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Economic fundamentals' continuous recovery and the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term rates down. However, the potential upward pressure on long - term rates due to a rise in risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are the main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and ultra - long - term (TL) treasury bond futures respectively. T's closing price rose 0.01% to 108.680, with a trading volume of 65,902 (down 276). TF's closing price fell 0.01% to 106.050, with a trading volume of 52,682 (up 1,537). TS's closing price fell 0.03% to 102.516, with a trading volume of 24,640 (down 6,201). TL's closing price fell 0.11% to 116.510, with a trading volume of 98,827 (down 4,923) [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes. For example, the TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.24 (down 0.02), and the T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.83 (up 0.17) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T's main position increased by 1,313 to 243,868. TF's main position increased by 1,862 to 151,286. TS's main position decreased by 1,209 to 71,166. TL's main position decreased by 4,976 to 137,774 [2]. 2. Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed. For example, the net price of 220017.IB (4y) rose 0.0332 to 106.7458, while the net price of 250018.IB (4y) fell 0.0417 to 99.0955 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: Yields of active treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.38%, the 3 - year yield remained unchanged at 1.41%, the 5 - year yield rose 0.75bp to 1.53%, the 7 - year yield fell 0.75bp to 1.63%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1.00bp to 1.7925% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates declined. The overnight silver - pledged repo rate fell 3.99bp to 1.3101%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate fell 6.00bp to 1.4000% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The issuance scale was 783 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 3373 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 2590 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The central bank governor detailed the main tasks of the "dual - pillar system". The finance minister proposed measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including using special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, optimizing income distribution, and dealing with local government debt [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On November 3 at 23:00, the US October ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. On November 5 at 21:15, the US October ADP employment data (in ten thousand people) will be released [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors including the completion of the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, relevant government notices, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [7]. - The supply - demand of silicon ferroalloy is in a weak balance, with inventory at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. However, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - It is expected that from November to December, the output of silicon ferroalloy will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the profit of coke is difficult to improve significantly. The alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: On October 25, the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed. On the 28th, the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released, and on the 29th, relevant government notices were issued. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Profit**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, inventory is at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 380 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 360 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the market and winter equipment maintenance, the planned production of a Gansu enterprise in October is postponed to next year. It is expected that the output from November to December will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the position of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 318,600 lots, a decrease of 41,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 66, a decrease of 4 points compared with the previous period. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 4,471, a decrease of 6,692 compared with the previous period. The price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared with the previous period [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The national average daily output of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 16,170 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel types was 20,275.3 tons, an increase of 1.70% compared with the previous week. The national silicon ferroalloy output (weekly supply) was 113,200 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 71,990 tons, an increase of 5,430 tons compared with the previous week [28][34]. - **Upstream Situation**: As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy remained unchanged. As of October 30, the prices of lanthanum coke in Inner Mongolia and Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,682 yuan/ton, a 1.18% increase, and in Ningxia was 5,579 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 409 yuan/ton, unchanged [38][42]. - **Downstream Situation**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared with the previous week. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export of silicon ferroalloy with a silicon content greater than 55% was 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons compared with the same period last year, a 7.25% year - on - year decrease [46].

目录 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.31」 焦炭市场周报 宏观扰动&成本推动，焦企亏损三轮提涨 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1. 宏观方面，工信部就《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，各省（区、市）炼铁、炼钢产能置换比例 均不低于1.5:1；28日，"十五五"规划建议发布，其中提到综合整治"内卷式"竞争，同时，29日盘中，商务部等5部门办公 厅关于印发《城市商业提质行动方案》的通知，通知提到整治"内卷式"竞争，叠加美联储降息、中美领导人会晤，本周市场 预期增强。 2. 海外方面，美联储如期降息25个基点，同时，12月降息概率有所下降；商务部介绍中美经贸磋商成果共识：美方将取消针对中 国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁水产量延续季节性回落，铁水产量236.36，-3.54万吨，焦炭总的库存 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors, including the public consultation on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [6]. - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and raw material port inventory has increased by 6.3 tons. The profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state, and the mainstream steel procurement price in October decreased month - on - month [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - It is expected that the supply pressure will increase in November, and the manganese - silicon inventory will continue to rise. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 5900 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on capacity replacement in the iron and steel industry, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released. The Fed cut interest rates, and Sino - US leaders met, enhancing market expectations [6]. - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Inventory has rebounded for 4 consecutive weeks, production has declined slightly at a high level, raw material port inventory has increased, and demand for hot metal has decreased. The profit in Inner Mongolia is - 130 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The industry plans to reduce energy consumption by 40%, but supply has not decreased significantly. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 5900 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 524,000 lots, a decrease of 19,000 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 44, an increase of 2 points compared to the previous period. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 9,784, a decrease of 35,082 compared to the previous period. The spread between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron January contracts was 272, an increase of 42 points compared to the previous period [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The basis was - 192 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to the previous period [23]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The national average daily output of silicon - manganese was 29,675 tons, an increase of 45 tons. The demand for the five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 124,492 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The national silicon - manganese production was 207,725 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%. The downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and the supply is at a relatively high level [27]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the national silicon - manganese inventory was 314,500 tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the previous period. Inventory has rebounded significantly for 5 consecutive weeks [30]. - **Upstream**: As of October 29, the price of Australian manganese ore and South African manganese ore remained unchanged. As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of October 24, the total manganese ore port inventory was 442.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different regions showed different trends. The silicon - manganese spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained in a loss state, but the loss decreased [37][43][47]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons compared to the previous week. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in October was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both corn and corn starch, the report suggests maintaining a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [8][12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Corn - This week, corn futures fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from last week. The market is still cautious as the USDA has not released the crop progress report. With the advancement of US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase. However, the estimated US corn yield per acre this year is lower than the USDA's previous forecast, and the expectation of a China-US trade agreement boosts the US corn market. In China, the corn yield per acre in the Northeast has increased significantly due to favorable climate during the sowing period. Farmers are willing to sell, but traders are slow to build inventories, and drying towers operate on a "buy-and-sell" basis. Feed enterprises have not replenished their inventories on a large scale, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downward as new grain arrives. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the pressure to sell high-moisture grain has eased with the drop in temperature. As the price of new grain has fallen, farmers are more reluctant to sell, resulting in a slight decrease in the volume of grain on the market. Traders are cautious about building inventories. Large feed enterprises still have some wheat stocks and are mainly on the sidelines regarding new corn purchases. Most enterprises adjust their purchase prices flexibly according to the volume of grain arriving at the factory gates. The corn futures price has generally been fluctuating at a low level recently [9] Corn Starch - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from last week. As the volume of new-season corn on the market gradually increases, the supply pressure of raw material corn intensifies, and the cost support for corn starch weakens. The substitution advantage of tapioca starch still exists, continuing to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. However, the industry's operating rate has been lower than the same period in previous years, and enterprises have had good sales recently, resulting in a slight decline in inventory. As of October 29, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.128 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week, a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year-on-year increase of 36.89%. The starch market has been fluctuating in tandem with the corn market [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - This week, the January contract of corn futures fluctuated narrowly at a low level, with a total open interest of 931,151 lots, an increase of 42,659 lots from last week. The January contract of corn starch futures fluctuated narrowly, with a total open interest of 211,483 lots, a decrease of 126 lots from last week [19] Net Position Changes of the Top 20 - This week, the net position of the top 20 in corn futures was -79,110, compared with -86,514 last week, indicating a slight decrease in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures was -54,866, compared with -53,333 last week, showing little change in net short positions [25] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 63,966 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12,504 lots [31] Spot Price and Basis - As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,242.16 yuan/ton. The basis between the January active contract of corn futures and the average spot price was +112 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2,750 yuan/ton. The spot price was relatively stable this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 160 yuan/ton [37][42] Inter - Month Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was -29 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was -8 yuan/ton, at a medium level compared to the same period [48] Futures Spread - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 310 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 614 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan/ton compared to last week [58] Substitute Spread - As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,487 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,242.16 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 244.84 yuan/ton. In the 44th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 291 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 7 yuan/ton compared to last week [63] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Corn Supply Side - **Inventory at North and South Ports**: As of October 24, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port totaled 270,000 tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 337,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 945,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons; the shipping volume at the four northern ports that week was 888,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,000 tons [52] - **Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's total corn imports were 56,562.26 tons, a decrease of 256,532.84 tons compared to the same period last year (313,095.10 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 81.93%, and a month - on - month increase of 20,404.55 tons compared to 36,157.71 tons last month [71] - **Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory Days**: As of October 30, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.10 days, an increase of 0.06 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74% [75] Demand Side - **Livestock Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads compared to the same period last year, a growth of 2.3%, and an increase of 12.33 million heads compared to the previous quarter, a growth of 2.9%. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 280,000 heads compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 0.7%, and a decrease of 90,000 heads compared to the previous quarter, a slight decrease of 0.2% [79] - **Breeding Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was -185.68 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -289.07 yuan/head [83] - **Processing Profit**: As of October 30, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 105 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was -213 yuan/ton in Henan, -379 yuan/ton in Jilin, and -196 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [88] 3.4 Industry Chain Situation - Corn Starch Supply Side - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 2.827 million tons, an increase of 7.82% [92] - **Starch Enterprises' Operating Rate and Inventory**: From October 23 to October 29, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 597,300 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons from last week; the national corn starch output for the week was 304,500 tons, an increase of 16,800 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 58.86%, an increase of 3.25% from last week. As of October 29, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.128 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week, a weekly decline of 1.05%, a monthly decline of 0.97%, and a year - on - year increase of 36.89% [96] 3.5 Option Market Analysis - As of October 31, the main 2601 contract of corn fluctuated at a low level, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 9.15%, a decrease of 0.83% from 9.98% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated downward and was at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 01 contract closing at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price was affected by factors such as the harvest of Canadian rapeseed, the expected increase in palm oil supply, and the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price was boosted by the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed harvest is completed with a bumper crop, putting pressure on prices. The expected increase in Indonesian palm oil production and the uncertainty of the B50 biodiesel plan also impact the market. In China, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed will lead to a structural tightening of imports in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The market is also affected by the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term watch [8]. - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The progress of US soybean harvest exerts pressure on prices, but the Sino - US summit has boosted market sentiment. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal will be restricted in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market Price Trends - Rapeseed oil futures continued to decline this week, with a total open interest of 220,738 lots, down 30,322 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and rebounded, with a total open interest of 343,443 lots, down 28,052 lots from last week [15]. Top Twenty Net Positions Changes - The top twenty net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +2,459 this week, compared with +7,916 last week, showing a decrease in net long positions. The top twenty net positions of rapeseed meal futures were - 88,865 this week, compared with - 108,635 last week, showing a decrease in net short positions [21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 7,540 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 2,955 lots [25][28]. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, significantly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil futures and the spot price in Jiangsu was +358 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, slightly higher than last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was +32 yuan/ton [34][40]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +281 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +46 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [48]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio Changes - The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.946, and the average spot price ratio was 4.04 [51]. Rapeseed - Soybean Oil and Rapeseed - Palm Oil Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - soybean oil was 1,294 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed this week. The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - palm oil was 658 yuan/ton, with little change this week [61]. Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 633 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean - rapeseed meal was 490 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 were 65,000 tons, 195,000 tons, and 580,000 tons respectively. As of October 30, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +1,051 yuan/ton. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 0.98%. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 691,600 tons (85.71%) and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [72][76][80][84]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons (1.44%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,200 tons (6.99%) and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons [88]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.95 million tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering were 450.86 billion yuan. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 35,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (8.30%) [92][96]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 8,000 tons, unchanged from last week. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64,700 tons (29.08%) and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons [100][104]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.1287 million tons [108]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of October 31, rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly higher this week. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 22.13%, up 2.8% from 19.33% last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [112].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices rebounded from a low level. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, a increase of 60 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting prices. Coupled with the drop in temperature, which is conducive to the storage and transportation of eggs, the sales speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of spot prices. Under the boost of rising spot prices, the near - month contracts have also strengthened significantly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still high, and old hens have not been over - culled. High production capacity is still the main concern of the market, which may limit the upside space [6]. - The egg futures price has shown a low - level rebound trend recently. However, the pressure of high production capacity still exists, which may limit the rebound space [6]. - The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and pay attention to the amount of old hen culling [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The 2512 contract of eggs rebounded from a low level, with the closing price at 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Low egg prices, favorable storage conditions, and increased sales speed support the spot price rebound. But high laying - hen inventory and non - over - culled old hens may limit the upside [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, focus on old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 12 - contract of egg futures rebounded from a low level. The position was 176,581 lots, a decrease of 57,622 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 8860, and the net short position decreased slightly compared to last week's - 22,065 [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 2933 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 11 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was - 213 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was - 148 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.96 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 5.3 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Restocking**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culling laying - hen index was 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling - hen age was 507 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2242.16 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2980 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the laying - hen breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.65 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 8.58 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1631.15 tons compared to the same period last year (11,584.64 tons), a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared to the previous month [63].