Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract continued to decline and was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - The purchase price of early - maturing varieties declined, and farmers' price concessions pressured the apple market. The old - crop inventory was low with little sales pressure, but the overall shipment speed slowed down [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples was 7814 yuan/ton, the main - contract position volume was 88131 hands, the number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2395 hands. Compared with the previous period, the main - contract position volume decreased by 5697 hands, and the net long position decreased by 1234 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged compared with the previous period [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage was 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; that of Shaanxi was 0.11, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars (the specific calculation result is not clear from the text). The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 10.04 yuan/kg, that of bananas was 3.81 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons was 5.97 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets was 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 respectively, with changes of - 0.09, - 0.4, and - 2 compared with the previous period [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples was 22.48%, an increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. Industry News - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 1.33% on Thursday [2]. - According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (2.35%) compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons compared with the previous week. The shipment speed slowed down slightly compared with the previous week and was basically the same as the same period last year [2]. - The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu apple cold - storages was 10.10%, 2.91%, and 2.05% respectively, with decreases of 1.02%, 0.74%, and 0.72% compared with the previous week. The shipment in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2]. - In some production areas, the early - maturing apples had serious regreening problems, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1714 | -28 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -22 | 6 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 141557 | -5600 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -18779 | 3449 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 3233 | 333 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | 10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 56 | 28 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 430 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 425 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 54.3 | 0.2 企业库存(周,万吨 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the issuance and raises the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is being released rapidly, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped, weakening the raw material cost support [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing cost - price inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the over - supply situation, and stainless - steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, downstream buyers are cautious, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic stainless - steel inventory has entered a destocking cycle, and the inventory decline is accelerating as production cuts continue [2]. - Technically, the positions are decreasing, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has fallen below the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on stainless steel and short on nickel [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,761 lots, an increase of 6,549 lots; the main contract position is 94,448 lots, a decrease of 8,202 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 103,234 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, deciding to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in Beijing in October. The meeting analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. Two voting members support interest - rate cuts, and Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut [2]. - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current egg production is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens and the pressure of new egg - laying hens from previous restocking. The spot market price has not met expectations, rising from the previous low and then falling again recently. However, high - temperature weather has reduced the egg - laying rate in some areas, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually picking up, and farmers still expect price increases. Affected by the bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory, the near - month futures contracts are weakly adjusted, while the far - month contracts are obviously resistant to decline, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3522 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 48 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3397 hands, a decrease of 40,206 hands; the monthly spread (9 - 1) of egg futures is - 86 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 20 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 236,158 hands, a decrease of 13,536 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, a decrease of 3 hands [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.2 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 327 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 12 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), an increase of 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan/feather, unchanged; the national new - hatched chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.06 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.41 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 11.28 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.68 yuan; the national culling age of hens is 501 days, a decrease of 5 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 20.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.22 yuan; the average wholesale price of pork is 4.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.36 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.47 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8032 tons, an increase of 146 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.22 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 -69.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1425.100 | | 1692.3 | -63.10↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -267.20 +2.10↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | | -59.60 | +3.70↑ | | | EC合约基差 891.46 +43.60↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 51818 -3056↓ | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 2316.56 -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,284.01 | -17.80↓ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1592.59 -54.31↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1261 ...

国债期货日报 2025/7/31 端在期货 | | 7月31日 20:30 美国7月失业率 美国7月季调后非农就业人口(万人) | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 8月1日 20:30 美国至7月26日当周初请失业金人数(万人) 美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

| | 7月30日 20:15 美国7月ADP就业人数(万人) | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 7月31日 02:00 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 国债期货日报 2025/7/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.300 | 0.15% T主力成交量 | 86268 | 7801↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.630 | 0.08% TF主力成交量 | 72345 | 7765↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.336 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 38836 | 465↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 118.360 | 0.4% TL主力成交量 | 159171 | 7641↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.40 | -0.02↓ T09 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,600 - 15,500 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 in the short - term [2] - Currently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port shows a slight accumulation trend, with bonded warehouses reducing inventory and general trade warehouses increasing inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude [2] - In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, towards the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was lower than expected, with a slight increase in finished product inventory. Due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,945 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 805 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 99,492 lots, down 9,387 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 47,606 lots, down 4,373 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,778 lots, down 2,201 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 11,048 lots, down 437 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 179,910 tons, down 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 39,716 tons, up 908 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 55 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 410 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,872 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 297 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 62.01 Thai baht/kg, down 1.1 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 49.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.65 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.79%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.39%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.55%, down 7.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.55%, down 7.44 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (July 27 - August 2, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with less impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on tapping operations [2] - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, up 6,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous period and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous period and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Due to rainfall in Yunnan, there is less glue, and the purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, the weather is fair, tapping operations are gradually carried out, and the output of raw materials on the island shows a seasonal increase. Affected by factors such as profit, local processing plants' enthusiasm for snapping up raw materials at high prices has increased, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the silicon ferro - alloy 2509 contract closed at 6008, up 0.77%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon ferro - alloy was reported at 5830, up 80 yuan/ton. With low - level operation of production, falling cost of Ningxia semi - coke, and generally weak steel demand expectations, the ferro - alloy production profit is currently negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On July 30, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6116, down 0.42%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese was reported at 5900. Manganese - based leading enterprises held a seminar to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry, and supply may decline. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' start - up rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, inventory is moderately high, and downstream hot metal production is at a high level. Market - wise, this month's steel mill procurement prices have rebounded compared to the tender prices. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating and slightly stronger operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为6,116.00元/吨，环比下降96.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为6,008.00元/吨，环比下降102.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为651,212.00手，环比下降4189.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为438,378.00手，环比增加6020.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 120,404.00手，环比下降3885.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 47,806.00手，环比下降6249.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为92.00元/吨，环比增加18.00元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为132.00元/吨，环比增加26.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,736.00张，环比下降454.00张；SF仓单为22,003.00张，环比下降6.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900.00元/吨，持平；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,870.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710.00元/吨，环比上涨150.00元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,950.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,830.00元/吨，环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5688.00元/吨，环比上涨78.00元；SF主力合约基差为 - 178.00元/吨，环比上涨182.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 216.00元/吨，环比上涨96.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为37.00元/吨度，持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1050.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620.00元/吨，持平 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.50万吨，环比增加21.00万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比上涨1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比上涨0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480.00吨，环比增加3640.00吨；硅铁供应为102,300.00吨，环比增加2300.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000.00吨，环比下降11300.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123670.00吨，环比增加289.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20065.70吨，环比增加52.00吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，持平；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.40万吨，环比下降336.10万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人与美方牵头人在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行会谈，双方将推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天 [2]. - IMF将2025年中国经济增速大幅上调0.8个百分点至4.8% [2]. - 中国钢铁工业协会会长表示，2025年国家将继续实施粗钢产量调控政策，下半年相关调控措施将显现，钢铁供需矛盾将缓解 [2]. - 今年夏天全球多地极端高温带动我国空调出口增长，1 - 6月我国空调累计出口额达93.5亿美元，同比增长近10%；对欧盟国家空调出口量同比增长43.2%，出口金额达37.6亿美元，创同期历史新高 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Although China's economic fundamentals were still under pressure in June, financial data showed that the effects of loose monetary policy had emerged and might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market. However, after the Politburo meeting, without any unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide - range shock. It was recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) closed at 4136.4, up 1.8; IF sub - main contract (2508) closed at 4147.0, up 1.6. IH main contract (2509) closed at 2820.0, up 7.8; IH sub - main contract (2508) closed at 2821.4, up 9.0. IC main contract (2509) closed at 6215.4, down 26.2; IC sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6271.2, down 26.8. IM main contract (2509) closed at 6604.2, down 28.8; IM sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6675.6, down 29.8 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1325.6, down 14.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2124.2, down 40.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread was 404.4, down 8.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3449.8, down 55.4. IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2528.6, down 49.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3854.2, down 64.2 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 41.8, up 1.0; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 72.6, up 1.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 1.2, down 3.6; IH next - quarter minus current - month was 0.2, down 3.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 192.2, up 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 316, up 5.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 260.4, down 1.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 425.8, down 0.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions were - 26,574.00, down 2773.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 14,691.00, down 262.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 11,447.00, down 1360.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 37,384.00, down 2167.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4151.24, down 0.8; IF main contract basis was - 14.8, down 4.2. SSE 50 was at 2819.35, up 10.8; IH main contract basis was 0.7, down 4.8. CSI 500 was at 6314.69, down 41.5; IC main contract basis was - 99.3, down 6.2. CSI 1000 was at 6718.48, down 55.4; IM main contract basis was - 114.3, down 2.4 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 18,709.76, up 416.67; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 19,826.41, up 156.08. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2334.31, up 67.60; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) was - 1505.0, up 3090.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were - 399.83 and - 792.11 respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 31.62, down 9.75; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.317, down 0.049. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2508) was 52.00, down 9.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2508) was 54.00, down 4.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 6.52, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 63.76, up 5.52; open interest PCR (%) was 75.91, up 3.25 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 3.80, down 1.60; technical aspect was at 3.20, down 0.90; capital aspect was at 4.40, down 2.20 [2] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in due course. It was necessary to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, boost consumption, promote "two major" construction, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks [2] - From July 28th to 29th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm. The two sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [2] Key Data to Focus On - On July 30th at 20:15, focus on US ADP employment in July; at 20:30, focus on US Q2 GDP; at 21:45, focus on Bank of Canada interest rate decision. On July 31st at 2:00, focus on Fed interest rate decision; at 9:30, focus on China's July manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI; at 10:47, focus on Bank of Japan interest rate decision; at 20:30, focus on US June PCE and core PCE. On August 1st at 9:45, focus on China's July Caixin manufacturing PMI; at 20:30, focus on US July non - farm payrolls report; at 22:00, focus on US July ISM manufacturing PMI [3]