Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The HC2510 contract opened lower and moved lower on Thursday. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the economic data has weakened, coupled with the slump in furnace materials, causing hot-rolled coils to fall under pressure. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the position volume was down 139,278 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 102,930 hands, up 1,876 hands. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,460 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,380 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 640.00 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 322.79 million tons, up 5.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 82.46%, up 1.35%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 79.30 million tons, up 1.30 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 268.65 million tons, up 1.49 million tons. The domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the steel net export volume was 921.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The automobile output was 279.41 million vehicles, up 14.56 million vehicles; the automobile sales volume was 290.45 million vehicles, up 21.81 million vehicles. The air - conditioner output was 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; the household refrigerator output was 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units; the household washing machine output was 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the interest rate unchanged. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 27th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.445 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in July last year, and a 19% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.346 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decrease in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusted widely, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas, LME inventories are stable, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has corrected, with cautious trading between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 214,027 lots, down 9,725 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 11,306 lots, down 419 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 15,232 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 59,419 tons, up 4,789 tons; LME inventory is 109,050 tons, down 3,100 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,820 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventory is 83,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The newly started housing area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - Automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.97%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15%, down 0.15% - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 13.79%, down 0.07% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, analyzed the current economic situation, and deployed economic work for the second half of the year - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the rainy season brings a good production outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil lead to a supply - surplus expectation, keeping the raw sugar market price under pressure. However, lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support, causing short - term low - level fluctuations. Domestically, there is a strong - weak differentiation in internal and external prices. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports and the release of import pressure, with a significant year - on - year increase in June's sugar imports, suppresses sugar prices. The demand side, due to hot summer weather, has备货 needs in the food and beverage industry and a seasonal consumption recovery in cold drinks, providing some price support. Overall, the slowdown of the decline in the external market weakens its drag on domestic prices, and the domestic peak demand season supports sugar futures prices. But increased imports and the global supply - surplus expectation limit the upside space, resulting in an overall oscillatory trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5793 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 255,082 lots, down 21,949 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 19,473 sheets, down 47 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 7,075 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar is 0 sheets; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,533 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,585 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,761 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,828 yuan/ton [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it is 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, up 1.1024 billion tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,427 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,375 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 199 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 132 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.94%, down 2.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.94%, down 2.17 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.17%, up 1.53 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.08%, up 0.35 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Broker Stonex reports that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 40.16 million tons, and the sugar - cane crushing volume is expected to be 598.8 million tons. The sugar 2509 contract closed down 0.79%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil shows strong production signs [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, leading to continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the trade inventory in the Northeast production area has dropped to a low level, and the trading activity is poor with little price fluctuation. Wheat has substitution advantages, and import corn auctions and deferred pick - up policies restrict the corn market. The corn futures price has declined again due to the general decline of commodities and remains weak overall [2]. - For the corn starch market, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been oscillating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2288 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread is 79 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 769,791 lots, up 19,476 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,570 lots, up 6,231 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 154,091 lots, down 2,500 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 162,157 lots, down 2,989 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 21,587 lots, down 3,822 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, down 2,573 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 412.5 cents/bushel, up 1.75 cents; the total position is 1,493,670 contracts (weekly), up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts (weekly), down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2404.02 yuan/ton, down 5.39 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2005.3 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 116.02 yuan/ton, up 18.61 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 20 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 356 yuan/ton (weekly), down 34 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2440.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 175 yuan/ton (weekly), down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 23 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, all unchanged [2]. - Corn planting area forecasts: The predicted annual planting area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 26.9 tons (weekly), down 56.9 tons; at northern ports is 304 tons (weekly), down 13 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 tons (weekly), down 26.5 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 tons, down 3 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons, up 98,100 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The inventory days of sample feed corn is 30.87 days (weekly), down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 tons (weekly), down 3.81 tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.63% (weekly), up 0.29%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.76% (weekly), up 6.3%; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei is - 48 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - For corn options, the 20 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, up 0.75%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.8%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.56%, down 1.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.56%, down 1.03% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The US will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting from August 1st due to India's high tariffs and non - monetary trade barriers [2]. - The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) predicts that the corn export volume in July 2025 will be 4.18 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and much higher than that in June, but 11.3% lower than that in July last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, with long - term supply potentially converging due to policy influence. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has relatively stable supply and weak demand in the short - term, with good long - term consumption expectations and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is advisable to engage in light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with accumulated industrial inventory and pressure on quotes. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trades at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,510 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,222 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,606 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 456,100 tons, up 1,825 tons [2]. - The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.87, up 0.03 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,580 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of alumina is 8 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 47.60 million tons, up 1.40 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total production capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - The primary aluminum import is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781 tons; the export is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons [2]. - The automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.33, up 0.0469; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.27%, up 0.0024 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association will strictly control new capacities of copper smelting and alumina [2]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, and Powell said it's too early to say whether to cut rates in September [2]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, exceeding expectations, and the core PCE price index rose 2.5% [2]. - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October and emphasized economic policies [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract oscillates downward, with reduced positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient and demand is stable, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is relatively stable, demand is weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both weak, and it's recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trades at high prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on Thursday, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. In terms of supply - demand, the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, while the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. Iron - water production remained above 2.4 million tons, and demand support still existed. Overall, due to the high linkage of the black series, the coking coal limit - down affected market sentiment, causing iron ore prices to decline under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were weakening downward, with the green bar expanding. The recommended operation is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position volume was 419,559 lots, a decrease of 32,551 lots. - The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 25.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 20,682 lots, a decrease of 604 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I were 3,600 lots, an increase of 200 lots. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 100 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.71 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 839 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 824 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 45 yuan, an increase of 12 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.95 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.39, an increase of 0.07. - The estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 32.009 million tons, an increase of 0.918 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, an increase of 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.6306 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 105.95 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, an increase of 2 days. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 1,995, a decrease of 114. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.32 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, a decrease of 3.36 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 22.40%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.18%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.14%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.41%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2.83069 million tons, an increase of 35,920 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 115,700 tons, an increase of 2,230 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 24.47, a decrease of 0.16 compared with the previous period. - From July 21st to July 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - The iron ore port inventory in domestic ports, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from the cost and supply side has loosened. Both the synthetic rubber futures and the mainstream supply prices have shown a rapid rise and then a fall. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but the downstream terminal procurement is passive. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has slightly increased. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene rubber plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires has declined slightly this week due to maintenance in some enterprises at the end of the month, and the overall capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires has also decreased due to maintenance in some enterprises. The overall shipment of enterprises at the end of the month was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will boost the overall capacity utilization rate to some extent, but there are also maintenance arrangements at the beginning of the month in some enterprises. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The short - term of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11380 - 12000. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The position of the main contract was 34820, a decrease of 4870. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2290 tons, unchanged from the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11950 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 305 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shandong was 130 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil was 73.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.73 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 70 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.79 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 608.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15700 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.262 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View On Thursday, the RB2510 contract declined with reduced positions. The July manufacturing PMI in China was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% (year - on - year increase). Terminal demand was poor, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, economic data was worse than expected, and combined with the limit - down of coking coal, market sentiment was dampened, causing rebar prices to fall. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green column. The operation suggestion is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; position: 1,816,026 lots, down 213,107 lots; top 20 net positions: - 58,700 lots, down 59,984 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 56 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB exchange warehouse receipts: 85,034 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 185 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; (actual weight): 3,467 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; RB main contract basis: 175 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 770 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 13,790.38 million tons, up 5.17 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 49.80 million tons, down 5.62 million tons; sample steel mill coke inventory: 640 million tons, up 0.91 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, up 0.14 percentage points; Tangshan billet inventory: 111.02 million tons, up 4.10 million tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 211.06 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 162.15 million tons, down 3.52 million tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 384.14 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; domestic crude steel output: 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,688 million tons, up 30 million tons; steel net export volume: 921 million tons, down 89 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; cumulative value of housing construction area: 633,321 million square meters, down 8,302 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 30,364 million square meters, down 7,181 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 40,821 million square meters, up 443 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points. - In June 2025, China's engineering machinery export value was 5.074 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. The export value of excavators was 891 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [2].

沪铜产业日报 2025/7/31 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,040.00 | -890.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,626.00 | -72.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -10.00 | 0.00 主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. It's recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies, and the current decline might not end [2]. - For glass, the probability of a correction has increased, but the decline is expected to be limited. It's also recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price is 1,247 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan; glass main - contract closing price is 1,117 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main - contract trading volume is 974,024 lots, down 109,991 lots; glass main - contract trading volume is 142,138 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net long position is - 344,377 lots, down 14,009 lots; glass top 20 net long position is - 215,547 lots, down 19,125 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1,500 tons, up 145 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 83 yuan, up 6 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 129 yuan, down 4 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 11 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; glass basis is 1 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,192 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points; float - glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.89 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7836 million tons, down 81,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 61.896 million weight boxes, down 3.043 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Multiple important meetings and events took place, including the Politburo meeting, the meeting between Wang Yi and the US - China Business Council delegation, etc. Also, the central government will set up a "child - rearing subsidy fund" with a preliminary budget of about 90 billion yuan this year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. The decline is not over, and it's recommended to short on rallies [2]. - Glass: Supply shows signs of rigid production, and the industry profit has improved. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the probability of a correction has increased. It's recommended to short on rallies, but the decline amplitude is expected to be limited [2].