Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the thread and hot-rolled coil market, last week's data showed a decline in the apparent demand and production of thread, and a continued decline in inventory. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, supporting costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback loop. The prices of coking coal and iron ore are showing signs of weakness. Technically, the futures prices of thread and hot-rolled coils have fallen below the 10-day moving average, and now they are supported by the lower Bollinger Band. Traders should wait patiently for stabilization and then go long at low prices for medium-term trading [2]. - In the iron ore market, the iron ore production of sample steel mills continued to decline week-on-week and is expected to continue to decline this week. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to reduce production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their highs, and the arrival volume is expected to decline after some time. The increase in port inventory during the consumption peak season suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment. With the realization of macro-positive factors, combined with losses and the seasonal decline in terminal demand, the futures price faces certain correction pressure [4]. Summary by Directory I. Thread and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, supporting costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback loop. The prices of coking coal and iron ore are showing signs of weakness [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of thread and hot-rolled coils have fallen below the 10-day moving average, and now they are supported by the lower Bollinger Band. Traders should pay attention to whether they can stabilize in the future [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices. Wait patiently for stabilization and then go long at low prices for medium-term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Related Data**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 3025 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3242 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and 0.70% from last week. The 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate is 81.75%, down 2.96 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output is 234.22 million tons, down 0.91%. The national building materials steel mill thread production is 208.54 million tons, down 1.91%; the hot-rolled coil production is 318.16 million tons, down 1.67%. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1075 million tons, down 0.19%; the thread social inventory is 425.7 million tons, down 1.19%; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 333.02 million tons, up 1.24% [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The iron ore production of sample steel mills continued to decline week-on-week and is expected to continue to decline this week. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to reduce production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their highs, and the arrival volume is expected to decline after some time. The increase in port inventory during the consumption peak season suppresses the futures price, and the slow destocking of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10-day moving average, and now traders should mainly pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band. There is resistance above formed by a dense trading area [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and wait patiently for the price to stabilize before going long at low prices [4]. - **Related Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 763 yuan/dry ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and 1.61% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 101.52 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.64% from the previous day and 4.93% from last week. The Australian iron ore shipment volume is 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59%; the Brazilian iron ore shipment volume is 606.9 million tons, down 23.09%. The port inventory is 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% [4]. III. Industry News - As of November 11, the operating rate of 50 major building material electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 36.4%, a 0.68% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 38.31%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period; the average daily building material output was 8.53 million tons, a 0.07 million tons increase from the previous period [6]. - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1262.6 million tons, a 45.8 million tons increase from the previous period, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the median since the second half of the year [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore ports in 47 ports in China is 15819.49 million tons, a 380.41 million tons increase from last Monday; the total inventory of 45 ports is 15128.19 million tons, a 414.11 million tons increase from the previous period [7]. - During the winter shutdown and production reduction period, Xinjiang is expected to reduce the production of construction steel by about 200 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total production of construction steel in Xinjiang in 2025. Currently, some steel mills in Xinjiang are still actively promoting the spontaneous production reduction and limitation of other steel mills in winter. Some enterprises with the conditions to export to other regions and Central Asia are increasing their export efforts to reduce the inventory pressure of construction steel in Xinjiang in early 2026 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logics include short - term hedging due to geopolitical risks after the Sino - US talks, the weakening US employment and moderate inflation leading to potential Fed rate cuts, the impact of the US government shutdown and consumer confidence on the currency attribute, and the influence of the CRB commodity index and RMB appreciation on the commodity attribute [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold closed at $4007.80 per ounce, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.14% from last week; London gold closed at $3994.10 per ounce, up 0.19% from the previous day and down 0.43% from last week; Shanghai gold futures closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.60% from the previous day and 1.45% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68% from the previous day and 1.39% from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai gold futures positions decreased by 9.72% from last week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 2.23% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week; Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1.32% from last week [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver closed at $48.23 per ounce, up 0.79% from the previous day and down 0.05% from last week; London silver closed at $48.70 per ounce, up 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai silver futures closed at 11,719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05% from the previous day and 2.30% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 11,726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14% from the previous day and 2.48% from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots, unchanged from last week; Shanghai silver futures positions decreased by 2.91% from last week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 2.65% from last week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 6.53% from last week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.48% from last week; Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 7.42% from last week [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve and Monetary Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25; the Fed's total assets are $6623.643 billion, down 0.00% from last week; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 [8]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, down 1.23% from the previous day and up 1.69% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.55, down 0.16% from the previous day and 0.18% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and 16.13% from last week [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month are 3.00% and 0.30% respectively, with no change; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%, up 0.14; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.91%, up 0.05 [10]. - **Economic Growth and Other Indicators**: GDP annualized year - on - year is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.80%, up 4.40; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, down 0.57 million [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the apparent demand for rebar decreased week - on - week, rebar production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices showed signs of weakness, and iron ore prices hit a recent low. Future steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. [2] - For the iron ore sector, the sample steel mills' hot - metal production continued to decline week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to fall this week. With the decline in steel mills' profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment has declined from its high, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak season and slow inventory depletion of steel products are suppressing the market sentiment. The futures price faces a correction pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Rebar's apparent demand, production, and inventory all decreased. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased. Coke and coking coal supported costs, but steel mills' profit decline may lead to production cuts. [2] - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and wait patiently to go long at low prices after stabilization for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low. [2] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and trading volume data. For example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3034 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and 2.32% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased, and steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices. [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipment declined from its high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease after some time. [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 - contract futures price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, hitting a three - month low, and is currently mainly supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and wait patiently to go long at low prices after price stabilization. [5] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, and other data. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 760.5 yuan/dry ton, down 4.94% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 tons. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. [7] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38 percentage points. The average daily hot - metal output was 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. [7] - The total urban inventory of steel was 933.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 tons. [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The report expects precious metals to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. In terms of silver, there are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the negative impact of the China - US talks has materialized, while risks such as a US government shutdown and geopolitical changes still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, the US government shutdown reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history, and the US Supreme Court questioned the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs. Regarding the monetary attribute, private reports show a decrease in US employment positions in October and a surge in layoffs to a 22 - year high for the same period. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and salary growth remains stagnant. The Fed's interest rate cut path has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. The market expects a 70% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - **Data**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3984.80 per ounce, down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down $53.50 (-1.32%) from the previous week. London gold is $3986.50 per ounce, up $18.30 (0.46%) from the previous day and down $7.65 (-0.19%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE gold主力 is 921.26 yuan per gram, up 3.46 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and down 0.66 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 917.64 yuan per gram, up 0.13 yuan (0.01%) from the previous day and down 3.38 yuan (-0.37%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. There are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [6] - **Data**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $47.85 per ounce, down $0.02 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.88 (-1.82%) from the previous week. London silver is $48.69 per ounce, up $1.08 (2.26%) from the previous day and up $0.51 (1.05%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE silver主力 is 11484 yuan per kilogram, up 57 yuan (0.50%) from the previous day and up 43 yuan (0.38%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11480 yuan per kilogram, up 59 yuan (0.52%) from the previous day and up 70 yuan (0.61%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [7] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4%, the discount rate is 4%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.9%, and the Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $167.70 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [9] - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (1.70%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 99.71, down 0.45 (-0.45%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week. There are also data on US Treasury spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, and IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios [9][11][13]

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月07日08时16分 报告导读： 供需方面，本周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经远高于同期水平 ，本周总库存继 续上升。焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减产量从而 可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价突破了上方 10 日均线的压制后有所回调，目前均已经跌破了下 方 10 日均线的支撑，目前下方有布林带下轨的支撑。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待企稳后逢低做多，中线交易。 山金期货黑色板块日报 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3037 | 13 | 0.43% | -69 | -2.22% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3256 | 3 | 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Core Logic - In the short - term, although the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, risks such as geopolitical changes and the US government shutdown still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is slowing down [1]. - The results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. The US Supreme Court questions the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs, focusing on whether the authorization of the "Emergency State Law" has been abused [1]. - The path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. ADP employment data shows that the overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth has been stagnant, adding uncertainty to whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in December. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction as of December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain at around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [1][3][7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3990.40 per ounce, up $49.10 (1.25%) from the previous day and up $48.70 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London gold is $3968.20 per ounce, up $17.10 (0.43%) from the previous day and down $38.50 (- 0.96%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 917.80 yuan per gram, up 5.54 yuan (0.61%) from the previous day and up 5.64 yuan (0.62%) from last week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 917.51 yuan per gram, up 7.98 yuan (0.88%) from the previous day and up 10.23 yuan (1.13%) from last week [2]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETFs are also provided [2]. Silver Core Logic - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $47.86 per ounce, up $0.96 (2.06%) from the previous day and up $0.59 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London silver is $47.61 per ounce, down $0.15 (- 0.31%) from the previous day and down $0.56 (- 1.17%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 11427.00 yuan per kilogram, up 151.00 yuan (1.34%) from the previous day and up 174.00 yuan (1.55%) from last week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 11421.00 yuan per kilogram, up 181.00 yuan (1.61%) from the previous day and up 224.00 yuan (2.00%) from last week [7]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETFs are also provided [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, the Fed's total assets are $66371.78 billion, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49% [9]. - US Treasury bonds and dollar: The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 2.43%, the US dollar index is 100.16, and various US Treasury bond spreads and interest rate differentials are also provided [9][10]. - US economy: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, the unemployment rate is 4.30%, and other economic data such as employment, consumption, industry, and real estate are also provided [9][10]. - Central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also provided [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Segment**: Last week's data showed that the apparent demand for rebar continued to rise, rebar production increased, but the decline rate of total inventory was slow. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was much higher than the same - period level after a significant increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing some cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills were expected to cut production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils broke through the upper 10 - day moving average and then pulled back, and currently fell below the lower 10 - day moving average, with support from the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **For the Iron Ore Segment**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills might continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments declined from the high level, and port inventories increased during the consumption peak season, which put pressure on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampened market sentiment. With the realization of macro - level positives, combined with losses and seasonal decline in terminal demand, futures prices faced correction pressure. Technically, the 01 contract's rebound was blocked, with obvious pressure from the upper Bollinger Band, and the futures price had fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, with support near the lower Bollinger Band [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%) from the previous day and 109 yuan (- 3.48%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous day and 92 yuan (- 2.75%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different degrees of decline [3]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mills' rebar production was 212.59 tons, up 5.52 tons (2.67%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil production was 323.56 tons, up 1.10 tons (0.34%) from last week [3]. - **Inventory Data**: The five - major varieties' social inventory was 1077.08 tons, down 22.62 tons (- 2.06%) from last week. The rebar social inventory was 430.81 tons, down 6.67 tons (- 1.52%) from last week. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 tons, down 8.64 tons (- 2.56%) from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, avoid chasing ups and downs, and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips for medium - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 776 yuan/dry ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and down 28.5 yuan (- 3.54%) from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 103.52 dollars/dry ton, down 0.08 dollars (- 0.08%) from the previous day and 2.18 dollars (- 2.06%) from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1639.7 tons, down 81.9 tons (- 4.76%) from last week. Brazilian iron ore shipments were 789.1 tons, down 7.5 tons (- 0.94%) from last week. The port inventory was 14542.48 tons, up 118.89 tons (0.82%) from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for the price to stabilize before going long on dips [5]. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous ten - day period. The key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily output decrease of 9.8% on a ten - day - on - ten - day basis [7]. - According to Mysteel, most of the blast furnaces under maintenance in Tangshan at the end of October resumed production on November 1st. From 18:00 on November 3rd, the city launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, with most implementing a 30% sintering production limit [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, experience high - level volatility in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the risk of the trade war has eased after the China - US talks; the US employment has weakened and inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US will cancel the so - called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. In terms of the monetary attribute, the path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index fluctuates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3941.30 per ounce, down $251.80 (-6.01%) from the previous day and down $26.80 (-0.68%) from the previous week. The London gold price is $3951.10 per ounce, down $74.15 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $2.60 (0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 912.26 yuan per gram, down 3.32 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and up 1.38 yuan (0.15%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 915.68 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.26 yuan (0.36%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. [2] Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $46.90 per ounce, down $4.08 (-7.99%) from the previous day and down $0.24 (-0.52%) from the previous week. The London silver price is $47.76 per ounce, down $1.02 (-2.08%) from the previous day and up $1.32 (2.84%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11276 yuan per kilogram, up 38 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and down 62 yuan (-0.55%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11242 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and down 109 yuan (-0.96%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. [5] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 66371.78 billion US dollars, down 32.35 billion US dollars (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous value [7]. - **Other Key Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.37, up 0.01 (0.42%) from the previous day and up 0.12 (5.33%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 100.21, up 0.33 (0.34%) from the previous day and up 1.48 (1.50%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.04 (-9.76%) from the previous week; there are also data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, etc. [7][9][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided, such as the probability of the federal funds rate being in the range of 375 - 400 basis points at the December 10, 2025 meeting is 74.1%, and the probability of being in the range of 400 - 425 basis points is 25.9% [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.50%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.33% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the safe - haven aspect, Sino - US talks led to a reduction in trade war risks, and the weakening of US employment and moderate inflation slowed down the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, with the US canceling the so - called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods and continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. In terms of the monetary attribute, the Fed's interest rate cut path has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. The market expects a 70% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index fluctuated downward, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [1][2] - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4193.10 per ounce, up 4.48% from the previous day and 4.91% from the previous week; London gold was at $4025.25 per ounce, up 0.34% from the previous day and 1.37% from the previous week [2]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 915.58 yuan per gram, down 0.76% from the previous day but up 1.58% from the previous week; Gold T + D closed at 915.68 yuan per gram, down 0.49% from the previous day and up 2.12% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots; Shanghai Gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.47% from the previous day and 17.80% from the previous week; Gold T + D positions decreased by 0.33% from the previous day and 1.56% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 1.32% from the previous week [2]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5] - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $50.97 per ounce, up 5.64% from the previous day and 8.84% from the previous week; London silver was at $48.78 per ounce, down 0.38% from the previous day and up 2.98% from the previous week [5]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11,238 yuan per kilogram, down 1.89% from the previous day and up 1.71% from the previous week; Silver T + D closed at 11,242 yuan per kilogram, down 1.75% from the previous day and up 2.24% from the previous week [5]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots; Shanghai Silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.67% from the previous day and 20.13% from the previous week; Silver T + D positions decreased by 1.87% from the previous day and increased by 14.87% from the previous week. The total explicit silver inventory was 41,153 tons, down 0.01% from the previous day and 0.76% from the previous week [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.00%, the discount rate was 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate was 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets were $6,637.178 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week [7]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: M2 year - on - year growth was 4.49%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.39%, the US dollar index was 99.87, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) was 0.38, etc [7]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year was 3.00%, and CPI month - on - month was 0.30% [9]. - **Other Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index was 285.03, the VIX index was 17.17, the CRB commodity index was 306.09, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1188 [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 was about 70.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges for subsequent meetings is also provided in the report [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, production increased, but the total inventory declined slowly. Hot-rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are likely to turn into a volatile trend [2]. - In the iron ore market, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their peak, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak has suppressed the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. After the macro positive factors are realized, the futures prices face correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,079 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day and 0.68% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day and 0.12% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and up 0.31% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.60% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 212.59 million tons, up 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production was 323.56 million tons, up 0.34% from last week. The total social inventory of five major steel products was 1,077.08 million tons, down 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory was 430.81 million tons, down 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 million tons, down 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was 916.4 million tons, up 2.65% from last week; the apparent demand for rebar was 232.18 million tons, up 2.73% from last week; the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 331.89 million tons, up 1.58% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a correction [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 782.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.19% from the previous day and 0.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.51% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Global iron ore shipments declined from the peak, and the port inventory increased during the consumption peak. Steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to correct before buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 33.141 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 12.298 billion tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 32.184 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.893 billion tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.859 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.9 billion tons [7]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.138 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.745 billion tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.667 billion tons [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.05 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 310,000 tons, a decrease of 3.3%. The inventory continued to decline slightly [7].