投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月12日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 3329.10 | 18.70 | 0.56% | 81.70 | 2.52% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3324.55 | -27.75 | -0.83% | 74.85 | 2.30% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 772.28 | -16.14 | -2.05% | -8.02 | -1.03% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 758.15 | -27.15 | -3.46% | -21.35 | -2.74% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | -17.59 | -31.51 | -226% | -39.46 | -180% | | | 沪金主力 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月07日08时18分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 5月6日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 绝对值 | Sc | 元/桶 | 458.90 | -12.20 | 百分比 -2.59% | 绝对值 -34.50 | 百分比 -6.99% | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 59.00 | 0.78 | 1.34% | -3.77 | -6.01% | | Brent | | 美元/桶 | 62.04 | 1.00 | 1.64% | -4.46 | -6.71% | | Sc-WTI | | 美元/桶 | 4.73 | -2.47 | -34.30% | -0.94 | -16.52% | | 内外价差 | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 1.69 | -2.69 | -61.42% | -0.25 | -12.69% | | Brent-WTI | | 美元/桶 | 3.04 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月29日08时15分 报告导读： 目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，但对钢坯出口影响有限，当前钢坯利润较好。上周五中央召开政治局会议， 强调降准降息，创设新的政策和金融工具，昨日国新办表示，政策大头将于二季度推出，提振市场信心。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度 快速回升，土地溢价提升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求 进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比有所回落。从空头的角度来 看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求将季节性回落，当前或已经见顶。从技术上看，最近两天期价上涨，持仓量下降，属于短线的反 弹行情，暂时没到反转时刻。 操作建议： 逢高做空为主，不可以追涨 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes the phased realization of Trump's trade - war risks leading to a decline in safe - haven demand, and an increase in the risk of U.S. economic stagflation causing the expected decline of the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 1.44%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.52% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade - war risks are phased realized, safe - haven demand declines; the risk of U.S. economic stagflation increases, and the expected real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds decreases [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump's reciprocal tariffs are realized, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent hints at the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions. Trump recently stated that he has no intention to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: U.S. consumer confidence in April remains weak, and tariff concerns persist. The one - year inflation expectation of consumers is 6.5%, the highest since 1981, with a continuous increase of 0.5 percentage points or more for four consecutive months. The long - term inflation expectation is 4.4%. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates next time in June, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 100 basis points. The U.S. dollar index encounters resistance in its downward movement, and the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds oscillates strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index oscillates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][4]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **U.S. Federal Reserve Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the total assets of the Federal Reserve are 67780.29 billion U.S. dollars, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.12%, the real yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds is 2.48, and the U.S. dollar index is 99.57 [6]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as U.S. bond spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, and industrial data are presented, showing different trends of increase and decrease [8]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 170.08, the VIX index is 25.89, the CRB commodity index is 298.46, and the offshore RMB is 7.2966 [9]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectation**: The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels in different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [10].

更新时间：2025年04月28日08时11分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 较上日 较上周 | | 单位 | 4月25日 | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc 2.70 原油期货 | | 元/桶 | 496.10 | | 0.55% | 5.40 | 1.10% | | 0.40 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 63.17 | | 0.64% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.41 | Brent | 美元/桶 | 66.91 | | 0.62% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.01 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 5.67 | | 0.09% | #N/A | #N/A | | 内外价差 | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 1.93 | -0.00 | -0.26% | #N/A | #N/A | | 1.81 | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.74 | | 93.32% | #N/A ...

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月28日08时24分 报告导读： 目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，但对钢坯出口影响有限。上周五中央召开政治局会议，强调降准降息，创设 新的政策和金融工具，提振市场信心。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，土地溢价提升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但 全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下 降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比有所回落。从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求将季节性回 落，当前或已经见顶。从技术上看，上周五晚间期价上涨，伴随持仓量上升，显示多头更加积极主动。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎追涨 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3101 | | 0 0 | 25 | 0.81 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has warmed up due to the Fed's likely maintenance of interest rates in May and over 50% probability of a rate cut in June, as well as Trump's tariff policy and remarks about not removing Powell from office. However, the actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in the growth of the US debt scale could affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are moving towards relaxation but still require sensitivity to emergencies [2]. - Overnight oil prices fluctuated with a rise and then a fall. The upward momentum from the warming external market sentiment was suppressed by supply - demand expectations. The current oil prices may not fully reflect OPEC+ production increase, and there are expectations for OPEC+ to continue managing supply to support prices. But there are concerns about OPEC+'s internal coordination and output control, and the short - term absence of geopolitical drivers has pressured oil prices [2]. - Technically, after the oil price broke through the multi - year production cut bottom in a sharp decline and rebounded to around $65 per barrel, the weekly chart of US oil shows a pattern of breaking through, retesting, and facing pressure. If the pressure around $65 per barrel for US oil is effective, it is difficult for the oil price to return to the production cut bottom range. The short - term is a rebound encountering resistance, and whether it turns into a phased decline remains to be seen. The short - term pressure has moved down to around $63.3 per barrel for US oil, and the potential support is around $61 per barrel for US oil. The trading strategy is to protect floating profits for short - term short positions and put options, and maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the medium term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On April 24, Sc was at 493.40 yuan/barrel, down 10.40 (-2.06%) from the previous day and up 10.70 (2.22%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.77/barrel, up $0.49 (0.79%) from the previous day and down $1.68 (-2.61%) from the previous week; Brent was at $66.50/barrel, up $0.36 (0.54%) from the previous day and down $1.35 (-1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $70.26/barrel, with a weekly increase of $0.76 (1.09%); Brent DTD was at $66.95/barrel, down $1.33 (-1.95%) from the previous week; Oman was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; Dubai was at $69.50/barrel, up $1.30 (1.91%) from the previous week; ESPO was at $63.66/barrel, up $1.34 (2.15%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts totaled 4644000 barrels, a weekly increase of 907000 barrels (24.27%); the US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.47 million barrels (0.12%) [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non - commercial net positions were 146400 contracts, up 6800 contracts (4.85%); commercial net positions were - 153700 contracts, down 5200 contracts (3.47%); non - report net positions were 7300 contracts, down 1600 contracts (-18.06%) [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - Trump set a deadline for the Russia - Ukraine issue, stating that the US attitude will change after the deadline, but Russia's Peskov said Trump never specified a date and setting a deadline for a cease - fire is inappropriate. Trump also expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's attack on Kiev and was non - committal about sanctions [3]. - Putin urged Russian economic officials to seize opportunities from trade wars to strengthen the economy, as Russia's trade with the US and the EU has declined due to sanctions but is not affected by Trump's tariffs [4]. - The Trump administration is considering multiple tariff plans for Chinese goods, including reducing the tariff rate to about 50% - 65% or implementing a "graded plan". However, the White House said Trump's stance on China tariffs has not softened [4]. - US Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that Trump's trade war could lead to rising unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July, but if tariffs return to a high level, companies may lay off workers, and he would support rate cuts in case of a sharp rise in unemployment [5]. - Russia launched a large - scale air strike on Ukraine, causing casualties. Trump criticized Russia, and Russia put forward new cease - fire conditions, requiring Kiev to withdraw troops from four regions [5]. - The US Middle East envoy is expected to visit Russia to discuss the Ukraine issue, and representatives from the UK, France, Germany, the US, and Ukraine held talks in London, claiming "significant progress" [6].

报告导读： 隔夜美财长贝森特表示中美之间高关税可持续性 ，在谈判之前应先互降关税，进一步释放贸易战缓和意思。全球资本市场迎来短暂喘息，黑色商品 出现大幅反弹。目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，市场预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。房地产方面，核 心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后， 下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，现实需 求支撑多头信心。但是，从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求会季节性回落。从技术上看，期价反弹，伴随持仓量下 降，显示空头在逢低离场，也意味着暂时看不到上涨的持续性 。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月24日08时23分 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有，后市需逢低离场，以防行情进入震荡 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月23日08时25分 报告导读： 隔夜特朗普表示无意解雇鲍威尔，贝森特表示贸易紧张局势不具可持续性 ，释放贸易战缓和意思。目前的贸易局势对板材下游消费以及出口均将构 成一定的负面冲击，市场预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳 回升，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量 有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，现实需求支撑多头信心。但是，从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续， 消费旺季过后，表观需求会季节性回落。从技术上看，期价下行，伴随持仓量增加，显示空头更加积极主动。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年04月23日08时09分 | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 单位 4月22日 | | 数据类别 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc | 元/桶 494.00 4.80 0.98% 17.20 3.61% | 原油期货 | | | | | | | | WTI | 美元/桶 63.54 0.16 0.25% 2.01 3.27% | | | | | | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 67.82 1.35 2.03% 2.97 4.58% | | | | | | | | | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 5.00 0.49 10.82% 0.40 8.61% | 内外价差 | | | | | | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 0.72 -0.70 -49.34% -0.56 -43.88% | | | | | | | | | ...