Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, the apparent demand for thread increased, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline, but the inventory of hot - rolled coil was significantly higher than in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. Due to the sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. In the off - season of consumption, the futures price has limited upward momentum. Technically, the futures price is oscillating at a low level on the daily K - line chart, and the oscillation range is narrowing, indicating a potential breakthrough [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron - making water production of sample steel mills decreased, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, it is expected that the iron - making water production will likely continue to decline seasonally, and the reduction of steel mill production will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will also come later than usual. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the high level, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. Additionally, the arrival volume increased significantly last week, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Price Data**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.23%) from the previous day and up 29 yuan (0.94%) from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3304 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.15%) from the previous day and up 27 yuan (0.82%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different trends [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mill thread steel was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons (3.98%) from last week; the production of hot - rolled coil was 316.01 tons, up 2.35 tons (0.75%) from last week. The total social inventory of five major varieties decreased by 31.98 tons (- 3.01%) from last week, the thread social inventory decreased by 15.73 tons (- 3.78%), and the hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased by 8.91 tons (- 2.68%) [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long for medium - term trading [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 797 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and up 5.5 yuan (0.69%) from last week. Other related prices also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1676.7 tons, down 65.2 tons (- 3.74%) from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 712.4 tons, down 59.6 tons (- 7.72%) from last week. The northern six - port arrival volume increased by 397 tons (38.13%) from last week, and the port inventory decreased by 75.06 tons (- 0.50%) [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [5]. **III. Industry News** - In mid - November, key steel enterprises produced 1943 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 194.3 million tons, a daily - output increase of 0.9% month - on - month; 1797 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 179.7 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 0.4% month - on - month; and 1924 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 192.4 million tons, a daily - output increase of 2.1% month - on - month [7]. - According to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production was 441.67 tons, a decrease of 4.62 tons from last week; the factory inventory was 394.17 tons, a decrease of 20.68 tons from last week; the social inventory was 470.96 tons, a decrease of 19.68 tons from last week; and the total inventory was 865.13 tons, a decrease of 40.36 tons from last week [7]. - On November 26, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market fell across the board. As of now, among the 9 transaction results counted, with a total listing of 24 tons, the flow - rate was about 62%, and the average decline was 53 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and the existence of interest - rate cut expectations, and the influence of factors in terms of risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently been reduced again, and the iShare silver ETF has slightly increased its position. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D all showed increases. For example, Comex gold rose 0.76% from the previous day and 2.40% from the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions remained unchanged compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold futures positions increased by 127.87%. Some inventories decreased, such as Comex gold inventory which decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D all increased. For instance, Comex silver rose 1.16% from the previous day and 2.39% from the previous week [5]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions remained unchanged compared to the previous week, while Shanghai silver futures positions increased by 13.23%. Some inventories decreased, like the explicit inventory which decreased by 0.74% compared to the previous week [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. The ten - year US Treasury real yield, dollar index, and other indicators showed certain changes [7]. - **Inflation**: US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index showed different degrees of changes compared to the previous period [9]. - **Economic Growth**: US economic growth indicators including GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls had corresponding changes [9]. - **Other Aspects**: There were also changes in data related to the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys. In addition, data on central bank gold reserves, risk - aversion attributes, and commodity attributes were also presented [9][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December 2025 to the range of 350 - 375 basis points is 82.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges in subsequent meetings also shows different trends [11].

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月25日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨1.48%，沪银主力收涨2.75%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存 。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美国11月工厂活动降至四个月新低， 需求疲软导致库存积压。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市 场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡 偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, due to a significant decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have also shown signs of weakness, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, steel futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the oscillation range is narrowing, hinting at a potential breakout [2]. - For the iron ore sector, as the off - season for consumption approaches, iron ore production is expected to decline along the seasonal trend, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the peak, and port inventory is rising, which suppresses the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract price has broken through the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands but faces resistance from a dense trading area [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils Supply and Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased month - on - month, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remained significantly higher than the historical average, with greater inventory pressure [2]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 82.81%, down 0.32 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 236.28 million tons, down 0.60 million tons (0.25%); the proportion of profitable steel mills was 37.66%, down 1.30 percentage points [3]. - The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons (3.98%); hot - rolled coil production was 316.01 million tons, up 2.35 million tons (0.75%) [3]. - The five - major steel product social inventory was 1029.41 million tons, down 31.98 million tons (3.01%); threaded steel social inventory was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons (3.78%); hot - rolled coil social inventory was 324.09 million tons, down 8.91 million tons (2.68%) [3]. Price and Basis - The closing price of the threaded steel futures main contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day (1.05%) and down 8 yuan from last week (- 0.26%); the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day (0.76%) and down 7 yuan from last week (- 0.21%) [3]. - The threaded steel main contract basis was 151 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the hot - rolled coil main contract basis was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for a pullback before going long for medium - term trading [2]. 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production decreased month - on - month, while the output of the five major steel products increased. As the off - season approaches, iron ore production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices [4]. - Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the peak, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the slow destocking of steel dampens market sentiment [4]. Price and Basis - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 5.0 yuan from the previous day (0.64%) and up 2.0 yuan from last week (0.25%) [4]. - The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 52.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.0 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 28 yuan/dry ton, down 3.0 yuan [4]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach. Wait patiently for a price pullback before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Industry News - Due to heavy snow at the Ganqimao Port on the 24th, the outbound transportation in the domestic direction stopped at around 14:00. The number of customs - cleared vehicles on the 24th is expected to be less than 1000 [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3278.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 238.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2637.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 271.3 million tons [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [6]. - Two coal mines in Linfen Ancient County stopped production on November 20th - 21st, with a total approved capacity of 2.4 million tons, mainly producing coking coal. The pre - shutdown daily output of raw coal was 10,000 tons, and the resumption time is yet to be determined [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons (2.5%), showing a continuous downward trend [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月24日15时57分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收跌0.52%，沪银主力收跌1.14%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存 。③货币属性方面，威廉姆斯讲话提高美联储降息可能性，但政策鹰派仍坚持己见。美国11月工厂活动降至四个月新低，需求疲 软导致库存积压。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期 美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至70%附近。美元指数和美债收益率高位承压；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民 币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月21日15时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡回调，沪金主力收跌1.40%，沪银主力收跌3.70%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，联储官员偏鹰，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地 缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美联储官员警示金融稳定风险，12月是否降息 仍存分歧。美联储公布的10月政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间 内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。更多美联储决策者暗示对12月降息持谨慎态度。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数 据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率跌至30%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB 商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be in short - term weak oscillation, mid - term high - level oscillation, and long - term step - up trend. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1][6] - For both gold and silver, it is recommended that conservative investors wait and watch, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high, and should manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals faced resistance and pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.75%. [1] - **Core Logic** - **Short - term Hedging**: The results of the China - US talks have been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation is weakening, inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted. [1] - **Hedging Attribute**: The results and consensus of China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting showed that there were serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials believed it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025. The number of continuing jobless claims in the US has soared, and builder confidence has been low for 19 consecutive months. More Fed policymakers are cautious about a December interest rate cut. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has dropped to around 30%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strong. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. [1] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4078.30 per ounce, up 0.27% from the previous day and down 2.93% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4126.95 per ounce, up 1.63% from the previous day and down 0.24% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 935.46 yuan per gram, down 0.16% from the previous day and down 2.68% from the previous week; Gold T + D closed at 930.00 yuan per gram, down 0.46% from the previous day and down 2.99% from the previous week. [2] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 493,748 lots; Shanghai Gold's main contract positions increased by 85.01% from the previous day and 23.36% from the previous week; Gold TD positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day and 3.07% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Gold totaled 89,446 lots, a decrease of 1,166 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 17,856 lots, a decrease of 568 lots. [4] 3.2 Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [6] - **Data** - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $51.07 per ounce, up 1.04% from the previous day and down 4.07% from the previous week; London silver closed at $52.20 per ounce, up 3.78% from the previous day and up 1.29% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 12,050.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.81% from the previous day and down 4.27% from the previous week; Silver T + D closed at 12,030.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.99% from the previous day and down 4.24% from the previous week. [7] - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 163,837 lots; Shanghai Silver's main contract positions increased by 2.76% from the previous day and 9.24% from the previous week; Silver TD positions increased by 0.28% from the previous day and 1.04% from the previous week. LBMA silver inventory was 26,255 tons, up 6.81% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 14,385 tons, down 3.28% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver inventory was 535 tons, down 8.38% from the previous week; Silver inventory in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 775 tons, down 5.80% from the previous week; the total visible inventory was 41,991 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. [7] - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Silver totaled 127,521 lots, a decrease of 1,753 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 43,645 lots, an increase of 333 lots. [8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute** - **Interest Rates**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, all down 0.25% from the previous value. [9] - **Other Indicators**: The Fed's total assets are $6631.098 billion, up $74.55 billion from the previous value; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.07% from the previous value; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44%, up 0.41% from the previous day and 1.67% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 99.60, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and down 5.41% from the previous week. [9] - **Geopolitical and Market Indicators** - **Hedging Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index is 90.76, down 1.74% from the previous week; the VIX index is 23.66, down 4.17% from the previous day and up 35.12% from the previous week. [12] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is 299.24, down 1.36% from the previous day and 1.03% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1109, up 0.01% from the previous week. [12] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2304.46 tons, up 0.09% from the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36362.76 tons, unchanged. [11][12] - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold - to - Reserves Ratio**: The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, up 0.88% from the previous value; the euro accounts for 19.83%, down 0.99%; the RMB accounts for 2.18%, down 0.04%. The global gold - to - foreign - exchange - reserves ratio is 22.18%, up 4.11% from the previous value; China's is 6.78%, up 4.40%; the US's is 78.64%, up 0.86%. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.09% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.19%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a mid - term high - level consolidation and a long - term step - up trend. The core logic includes short - term risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the influence of factors from risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic gold prices showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 was $4067.40 per ounce, up $22.30 (0.55%) from the previous day and down $65.80 (-1.59%) from the previous week [3][4]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term risk aversion: The outcome of the China - US talks was priced in, but geopolitical risks remained. The US employment weakened and inflation was moderate, and Fed officials were hawkish, leading to a callback in interest - rate cut expectations. Risk - aversion attribute: There were still geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. Monetary attribute: The number of continued unemployment claims in the US soared, and builder confidence was low. More Fed policymakers were cautious about a December interest - rate cut. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market awaited more economic data. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index was volatile and weak, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [4]. 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic silver prices also had different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 was $50.54 per ounce, up $0.49 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-1.05%) from the previous week [3][8]. - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. On the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate were both 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets were $66310.98 billion, up $74.55 billion (0.00%). Other data such as M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and various interest - rate spreads also showed different changes [10][12]. - **Risk - Aversion Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, up 6.72 (7.99%), and the VIX index was 24.69, up 2.31 (10.32%) [14]. - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index was 303.36, up 1.72 (0.57%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1106 [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand and production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. Due to a sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coal - coke and iron ore prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a short - term rapid rise but faced resistance from the 60 - day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The mid - term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel products also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 - contract price broke through the middle Bollinger Band but faced resistance from the dense trading area, remaining in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures price decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to last week. The hot - rolled coil futures price also decreased slightly from the previous day but increased from last week. Some spot prices increased, while others decreased [3]. - **Production and Profitability**: The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, and the daily average hot metal output was 236.88 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.96%. National rebar and hot - rolled coil production decreased last week, with rebar production dropping by 4.10% and hot - rolled coil production by 1.41% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major steel products decreased. Rebar social and steel - mill inventories decreased by 2.34% and 3.85% respectively, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly by 0.01%, and steel - mill inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 0.73% compared to last week, with rebar and hot - rolled coil showing similar downward trends [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of iron ore increased compared to the previous day and last week. For example, the DCE iron ore主力 contract settlement price increased by 0.44% compared to the previous day and 3.80% compared to last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand is expected to decline as steel mills cut production. Supply - side global shipments are decreasing, and port inventory is rising. The arrival volume is expected to decline in the future [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [5]. Industry News - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: Shanxi Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380m³ blast furnace for maintenance on November 23, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.45 million tons and wire rod production by about 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 20.04 million tons compared to last Monday. From November 10 to 16, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 22.7 million tons, reaching the highest level since the fourth quarter [7]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment**: In the second week of November 2025, Brazil shipped 1705.39 million tons of iron ore, with a daily average shipment of 170.54 million tons per day, a 3.23% decrease compared to November last year [7]. - **Glass Deep - Processing Orders**: As of November 17, the average order days of national glass deep - processing sample enterprises decreased by 8.9% compared to the previous period and 24.2% year - on - year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 1.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 2.54%. The short - term safe - haven factor: the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted back. The safe - haven attribute: the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The monetary attribute: more Fed policymakers have hinted at caution regarding a December interest rate cut. The market is waiting for more economic data, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December remains below 50%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are facing resistance on the downside and are relatively strong. The commodity attribute: the CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Gold - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract was $4045.10 per ounce, down $39.30 (-0.96%) from the previous day and down $78.30 (-1.90%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $4072.50 per ounce, up $1.40 (0.03%) from the previous day and down $17.75 (-0.43%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 918.52 yuan per gram, down 10.94 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day and down 30.36 yuan (-3.20%) from the previous week. The closing price of Gold T + D was 915.55 yuan per gram, down 14.67 yuan (-1.58%) from the previous day and down 30.95 yuan (-3.27%) from the previous week. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and London gold was - 8.57 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. The gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.77, up 1.88 (2.42%) from the previous day and down 1.97 (-2.41%) from the previous week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex gold was 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 90,872 lots (kilograms per lot), down 10,851 lots (-10.67%) from the previous day and down 40,173 lots (-30.66%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged. The Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, with a small change compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day, with the top 10 net long positions totaling 91,567.00, down 2,014.00 (27.40%). The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 18,604.00, up 251.00 (5.57%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Silver - related Data**: - **International Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract was $50.05 per ounce, down $0.35 (-0.69%) from the previous day and down $0.36 (-0.70%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $51.06 per ounce, down $0.95 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $1.02 (2.03%) from the previous week. - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11,699.00 yuan per kilogram, down 234.00 yuan (-1.96%) from the previous day and down 181.00 yuan (-1.52%) from the previous week. The closing price of Silver T + D was 11,697.00 yuan per kilogram, down 273.00 yuan (-2.28%) from the previous day and down 168.00 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous week. - **Basis and Spread**: The difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and London silver was 35.30 yuan per gram, with a significant change compared to the previous day and week. - **Positions**: The position of Comex silver was 165,805 lots (5000 ounces per lot), unchanged from the previous day and week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 4,836,015 lots (kilograms per lot), up 163,290 lots (3.49%) from the previous day and up 768,660 lots (18.90%) from the previous week. - **Inventory**: The total visible inventory was 42,209 tons, down 191 tons (-0.45%) from the previous day and down 391 tons (-0.92%) from the previous week [6]. - **Top 10 Net Positions of Futures Companies in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 companies had different changes compared to the previous day. The net short positions of the top 10 companies also had corresponding changes, with the top 10 net short positions totaling 55,928.00, up 3,493.00 (7.77%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.00%, the discount rate was 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 3.90%. The total assets of the Fed were $6,631.098 billion, up $74.55 (0.00%) from the previous week. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 4.49%, up 0.07 percentage points. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury was 2.42%, up 0.02 (0.83%) from the previous day and week. The US dollar index was 99.53, up 0.25 (0.25%) from the previous day and down 0.09 (-0.09%) from the previous week. The yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries was 0.37, up 0.04 (12.12%) from the previous day and down 0.01 (-2.78%) from the previous week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%. The year - on - year core CPI was 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%. - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points. The annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points. The monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 5.00 (15.63%). The existing home sales were 4.06 million units, up 5.00 (1.25%). The new home sales were 0.66 million units, up 0.10 million (15.15%). - **Consumption**: The year - on - year growth rate of retail sales was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of retail sales was 0.72%, down 0.27 percentage points. - **Industry**: The year - on - year growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of the industrial production index was 0.10%, up 0.47 percentage points. - **Trade**: The year - on - year growth rate of exports was - 25.17%, up 1.86 percentage points. The month - on - month growth rate of exports was 1.79%, down 6.77 percentage points. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves were 2304.46 tons, up 2.18 tons (0.09%). The US central bank gold reserves were 8133.46 tons, unchanged. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The proportion of the US dollar was 57.80%, up 0.51 percentage points. The proportion of the euro was 19.83%, down 0.20 percentage points. The proportion of the RMB was 2.18%, down 0.00 percentage points. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, down 7.64 (-7.76%) from the previous day and down 2.12 (-2.28%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 22.38, up 2.55 (12.86%) from the previous day and up 4.78 (27.16%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index was 301.64, down 0.71 (-0.23%) from the previous day and down 5.41 (-1.76%) from the previous week [10][12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is given, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustments [13].