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山金期货原油日报-2025-03-27
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-27 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates 2 Fed rate cuts this year, with a low probability of a May cut and uncertainty about a June cut. There are ongoing concerns about US inflation, and the US counter - tariff policy takes effect on April 2nd [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Gaza Strip have reignited, and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela provide a bullish basis. US - Russia negotiations have both differences and progress, and the overall trend seems to be a cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but there is still some game space among the US, Russia, and Europe [2]. - OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with production set to increase in May. The oil price has factored in some of this, but it's unclear if it has fully priced in a smooth OPEC+ production increase. Attention should be paid to US drilling numbers and the probability of Trump's oil and gas production increase policy implementation [2]. - On the demand side, it's difficult to see a definite increase. There are reports of the US replenishing its SPR, but it's unlikely to happen quickly. Future inventory data will be a key factor, and currently, the total inventory is low, but the low - inventory support for prices may be weaker due to poor demand expectations [2]. - In the long - term, there is no clear global demand growth logic, and with OPEC+ gradually increasing production, potential supply losses should be monitored, especially from Russia, Iran, and other countries affected by US sanctions [2]. - Overnight, crude oil continued to rebound but faced resistance at the previous oscillation lower boundary, showing short - term pressure on the market. The overall market sentiment may turn bearish, but the final situation depends on Russian crude oil supply data [2]. - Technically, the oil price is still in a bearish mid - term state. After a continuous low - level rebound, short - term indicators are showing divergence. Traders should prepare to exit short - term long positions and consider a mid - term strategy of selling at high prices by setting up out - of - the - money put options with an execution price of around $67 per barrel for US crude oil [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - On March 26th, Sc was at 541.80 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (0.65%) from the previous day and up 25.60 yuan (4.96%) from the previous week. WTI was at $69.94/barrel, up $0.74 (1.07%) from the previous day and up $2.75 (4.09%) from the previous week. Brent was at $74.00/barrel, up $0.83 (1.13%) from the previous day and up $3.14 (4.43%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc - WTI spread was $5.57/barrel, down $0.22 (-3.75%) from the previous day but up $0.76 (15.82%) from the previous week. The Sc - Brent spread was $1.51/barrel, down $0.31 (-16.90%) from the previous day and up $0.37 (32.58%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent - WTI spread was $4.06/barrel, up $2.25 (123.73%) from the previous day and up $2.92 (256.94%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Data - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $75.74/barrel, up $1.49 (2.01%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at $74.67/barrel, up $2.17 (2.99%) from the previous week. Oman and Dubai were both at $73.63/barrel, up $0.71 (0.97%) from the previous week [2]. - ESPO was at $67.82/barrel, with an OPEC - basket premium of $1.74/barrel, up $0.24 (16.00%) from the previous day and up $2.17 (3.31%) from the previous week. The Brent DTD premium was $0.67/barrel, up $0.21 (45.65%) from the previous day but down $4.36 (-118.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The Oman premium was -$0.37/barrel, up $3.31 (89.95%) from the previous day but down $2.37 (-86.50%) from the previous week. The Dubai premium was -$0.37/barrel, up $1.96 (84.12%) from the previous day and down $0.02 (-5.13%) from the previous week [2]. 3.3 Product Spot Data - Diesel in East China was at 6905.27 yuan/ton, up 45.18 yuan (0.66%) from the previous day and up 102.91 yuan (1.51%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8109.36 yuan/ton, up 36.55 yuan (0.45%) from the previous day and up 93.36 yuan (1.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 12.745059, up 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day but down 0.43 (-3.28%) from the previous week. The ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 14.967449, down 0.03 (-0.20%) from the previous day and down 0.56 (-3.62%) from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Inventory and Position Data - The total Sc warehouse receipts were 648.50 million barrels, down 50.00 million barrels (-7.16%) from the previous week. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 396.15 million barrels, up 0.29 million barrels (0.07%) from the previous week [2]. - US commercial crude oil was 433.63 million barrels, down 3.34 million barrels (-0.76%) from the previous week. Cushing crude oil was 22.71 million barrels, down 0.76 million barrels (-3.22%) from the previous week [2]. - US gasoline was 239.13 million barrels, down 1.45 million barrels (-0.60%) from the previous week. Distillates were 114.36 million barrels, down 0.42 million barrels (-0.37%) from the previous week [2]. - The non - commercial net position in CFTC was 16.68 million contracts, up 0.27 million contracts (1.64%) from the previous week. The commercial net position was - 18.22 million contracts, down 0.35 million contracts (1.95%) from the previous week [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Congressional Budget Office warns that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the government may face a default risk as early as August. If borrowing demand exceeds forecasts, the Treasury's borrowing capacity may be exhausted in late May or June [3]. - The EIA reports that for the week ending March 21st, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.341 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.446 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 0.421 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 0.755 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 0.286 million barrels [4]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak says the Kropotkin oil station is under restoration, and it's too early to say when the work will be completed. The MOL Group is interested in Russian oil and gas projects. The global oil market is stable, and demand is gradually recovering. OPEC+ will monitor the market to maintain supply - demand balance. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is in normal operation, and global oil demand is expected to increase by 1 - 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025 [4]. - India's Reliance Industries will stop importing Venezuelan oil due to tariff threats. Last year, it imported an average of 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil per month, and it's unclear if it will receive the April shipment [4]. - Total Energies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne says Europe will still need a certain level of Russian natural gas for its industries to remain competitive. He wouldn't be surprised if one or two Nord Stream pipelines resume half of their capacity [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 86.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. By June, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 33.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 58.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 8.3% [5]. - S&P warns that US policy uncertainty poses risks to the North American credit environment, and the probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months is 25% [6]. - Fed's Musalem says the risk of recent inflation stagnating above 2% or rising further has increased. It's appropriate to be patient with the current policy. If the labor market remains strong and the second - round tariff effects appear, the Fed may need to keep rates high for longer or adopt stricter policies [6]. - Bridgewater's Ray Dalio warns US House Republicans about the danger of rising deficits and urges them to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP to avoid the risk of debt - servicing costs squeezing government spending [7]. - The winning bid rate for the 5 - year US Treasury bond auction on March 26th was 4.1%, down from the previous 4.12%. The winning bid rate for the 4 - month Treasury bond auction was 4.2%, the same as the previous rate [7].
山金期货贵金属策略报告-2025-03-26
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 12:18
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间:2025年03月26日16时37分 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读: 今日贵金属震荡偏强,沪金主力收涨0.47%,沪银主力收涨1.70%。①核心逻辑,短期贸易战、地缘异动等避险阶段缓和;美国经 济出现更多转弱信号,联储官员继续谨慎。②避险属性方面,特朗普对贸易战态度趋于谨慎。VIX高位回落,贸易战、地缘异动等 避险阶段兑现;③货币属性方面,面对经济不确定性,美国3月世界大型企业联合会消费者信心指数录得92.9,为2021年1月以来 新低,预期94,前值98.3。预期指数大幅下滑至65.2,创最近十二年新低。美国费城联储服务业部门当前活动指数从-13.1急剧下 跌至-32.5,跌至2020年5月以来的最低水平。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至6月,预期25年总降息空间重回75基点左右。美元 指数和美债收益率下行遇阻;④商品属性方面,CRB商品指数高位承压,人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏多, 中期高位震荡,长期阶梯上行。 策略:稳健者观望,激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理,严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据: | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 ...
山金期货原油日报-2025-03-26
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, it's difficult to see a definite demand growth logic globally, and OPEC+ is gradually increasing production. Potential supply losses may come from Russia, Iran, and other countries affected by US sanctions. The support from the production cut floor in the past two years is still effective, but it may involve certain geopolitical factors. The market should pay attention to the US's counter - tariff policy expectations this week [2]. - The overnight crude oil fluctuated within a range and is currently in a rebound process. There are several factors affecting the oil price: difficult to find demand increments, OPEC+ gradually increasing production, Trump's push for US oil and gas production as a potential negative factor, the oil price getting support near the previous production cut floor but possibly involving OPEC+ geopolitical conflicts, and the market's changing expectations for US - Russia negotiations. The overall atmosphere may turn bearish, but the final situation depends on Russian crude oil supply data. Also, the previous decline in oil price may imply expectations of a US economic recession, which may fluctuate. Additionally, it's necessary to focus on whether the US implements a strong counter - tariff policy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 25, the SC crude oil futures price was 538.30 yuan/barrel, up 3.90 yuan (0.73%) from the previous day and 12.10 yuan (2.30%) from the previous week. WTI was 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 0.04 dollars (0.06%) from the previous day and 2.50 dollars (3.75%) from the previous week. Brent was 73.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.14 dollars (0.19%) from the previous day and 2.75 dollars (3.91%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: The SC - WTI spread was 5.78 dollars/barrel, up 0.49 dollars (9.36%) from the previous day and down 0.87 dollars (-13.08%) from the previous week. The SC - Brent spread was 1.81 dollars/barrel, up 0.39 dollars (27.82%) from the previous day and down 1.12 dollars (-38.18%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 75.11 dollars/barrel, up 1.98 dollars (2.71%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was 73.92 dollars/barrel, up 2.41 dollars (3.37%) from the previous week; Oman was 73.44 dollars/barrel, up 1.53 dollars (2.13%) from the previous week; Dubai was 73.44 dollars/barrel, up 1.53 dollars (2.13%) from the previous week; ESPO was 66.64 dollars/barrel, up 2.09 dollars (3.24%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6860.09 yuan/ton, up 23.64 yuan (0.35%) from the previous day and 27.55 yuan (0.40%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was 8072.82 yuan/ton, up 27.73 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and 9.45 yuan (0.12%) from the previous week [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Reserves**: SC warehouse receipt total was 648.50 million barrels, down 50.00 million barrels (-7.16%) from the previous week. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 395.86 million barrels, up 0.27 million barrels (0.07%) from the previous week [2]. - **EIA US Data (Weekly)**: Commercial crude oil was 436.97 million barrels, up 1.75 million barrels (0.40%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 23.46 million barrels, down 1.01 million barrels (-4.12%) from the previous week; gasoline was 240.57 million barrels, down 0.53 million barrels (-0.22%) from the previous week; distillates were 114.78 million barrels, down 2.81 million barrels (-2.39%) from the previous week [2]. - **CFTC Positions (Weekly)**: Non - commercial net positions were 16.68 million contracts, up 0.27 million contracts (1.64%) from the previous week; commercial net positions were - 18.22 million contracts, down 0.35 million contracts (-1.95%) from the previous week; non - report net positions were 1.54 million contracts, up 0.08 million contracts (5.38%) from the previous week [2]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Macro Aspect**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and there are continuous concerns about US inflation. The US counter - tariff policy will take effect on April 2nd, which needs attention [2]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: There are bullish factors in the Gaza Strip, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. US - Russia negotiations have both differences and progress, and currently, the overall situation is moving towards a cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Attention should also be paid to incremental information from Turkey [2]. - **Supply Aspect**: OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, which is mainly bearish. The oil price has partially priced in this factor, but it may not fully reflect the smooth increase in OPEC+ production. Attention should be paid to the number of US drilling rigs and the probability of Trump's oil and gas production increase policy implementation [2]. - **Demand Aspect**: It's still difficult to see a definite demand increment. There are reports that the US will replenish its SPR, but it may not be implemented quickly. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of inventory data [2]. 3. Operation Suggestions - The short - term oil price has deviated from the previous narrow - range bottom oscillation range and is approaching the previous oscillation lower limit (referring to US oil at 69.6 dollars/barrel). Traders should be cautious in holding long positions in the short - term, raise the stop - loss level to around 68.6 dollars/barrel for US oil, and be prepared to exit short - term long positions or convert floating profits into out - of - the - money call options. Those with a medium - term short - selling strategy can prepare to ambush out - of - the - money put positions during the rebound stage, with the execution price referring to 67 dollars/barrel for US oil [2]. 4. Other News - From March 15th to 21st in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.599 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.61 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.277 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.349 million barrels [3]. - On March 25th, Russia and the US agreed on a list of energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine that are prohibited from being attacked, and the agreement can be extended [3]. - The US Latin American envoy said that the Caribbean region is at a historical moment of energy security, and the oil development in Guyana will be an important topic [3]. - Iran's foreign minister reiterated that the indirect negotiation channel with the US is open, but Iran will not conduct direct negotiations with the US unless the US adjusts its policy towards Iran [4]. - Iran's foreign minister accused the US of trying to create division among Middle Eastern countries and urged Middle Eastern countries to defend their sovereignty [4]. - The Dutch bank ING said that Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Venezuelan oil buyers may significantly tighten the global oil supply - demand balance. Chevron's sanctions exemption will expire on May 27th, and the 25% tariff will take effect on April 2nd [5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 87.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.9%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 59.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.1% [5]. - On March 25th, Trump said that significant progress has been made in the Ukraine issue, and the US is in in - depth discussions with Russia and Ukraine. He also said that Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement on a maritime cease - fire, and other countries will participate in monitoring the cease - fire process. Trump will consider Russia's request for sanctions relief [5]. - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio warned US House Republicans about the danger of rising deficits and urged them to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP [6]. - The winning bid rate for the 2 - year US Treasury auction on March 25th was 3.984%, down from the previous 4.17%. The winning bid rate for the 6 - week Treasury auction was 4.23%, down from the previous 4.24% [6].
黑色板块日报-2025-03-26
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 01:33
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年03月26日08时21分 报告导读: 消息面上,新疆有更多钢企压减粗钢产量 ,提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所回落,厂库继续下降,社库回落,总库 存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨,数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。目前房地产仍处于筑底的过程中 ,下游需求主要看热卷。从技术上看,目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡,整体处于震荡偏弱的状态。 操作建议: 多单可轻仓持有 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3220 3386 | 16 -10 | 0.50% -0.29% | 29 16 | 0.91% 0.47% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格(HRB400E 20mm,上海) | 元/吨 | 3280 | 20 | 0.61% | 30 | 0.92% | | | 热轧板卷现 ...
二季度中国宏观分析报告:压力仍大,亮点涌现
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-25 08:13
| 2.1 | 关税大战越演越烈,外贸形势严峻 3 | | --- | --- | | 2.2 | 房地产市场仍面临下行压力,不宜对"金三银四"有过高期待 4 | | 2.3 | 固定资产投资增速下行压力仍大 5 | | 2.4 | 消费升级仍面临较大阻力 6 | | 2.5 | 对当前宏观经济的整体判断 7 | | 3.1 | 更加积极的财政政策 7 | | 3.2 | "降准降息"仍在路上 8 | | 3.3 | 激发创新活力,改变了国内科技题材述事 9 | | 3.4 | "稳地产、稳股市",改善了市场预期 9 | | | | 一、一季度宏观经济形势回顾 今年前两个月,工业生产高位略降,投资、消费有所上行,房地产市场有所分化,一线及强二 线城市新房价格企稳,但三四城市房价仍在回落。外需方面,1-2 月出口因春节错位、关税加征以 及高基数等因素回落,而考虑到美国关税不确定性带来的抢出口以及下月低基数等因素影响,短期 出口仍有一定支撑。内需中,投资和消费均有回升,一方面,地产投资改善,制造业投资高位回升, 基建投资有所回落。其中,房地产企业经营改善,带动地产投资降幅缩窄。产业升级和设备更新推 动制造业中高技 ...
专题报告:黄金与原油价格相关性分析
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-25 07:54
| 一、原油与黄金的基本属性 2 | | --- | | 二、影响黄金与原油的因素分析 2 | | 2.1 经济增长是决定原油与黄金的价格走势的重要因素 2 | | 2.2 通胀预期与美联储货币政策预期对黄金与原油价格形成显著驱动 3 | | 2.3 地缘政治风险是影响油价和金价的重要因素之一 4 | | 三、黄金与原油相关性分析 4 | | 四、金油比分析与展望 6 | | 4.1 金油比分析 6 | | 4.2 金油比展望 8 | 作为全球大宗商品市场中的两大核心资产,原油与黄金的价格波动对各国经济稳定具有重要 影响。近年来,国际政治经济格局的深刻变化使得这两种商品的价格走势备受市场关注。本文旨 在深入探讨原油与黄金之间的内在关联,分析其价格联动机制。具体而言,我们将重点研究以下 问题:两者之间存在何种经济逻辑关系?为何在某些市场周期中表现出显著的价格相关性,而在 其他时期却呈现背离走势?通过对历史数据和市场机制的系统性分析,本文将揭示原油与黄金价 格关系的动态特征及其背后的驱动因素。 一、原油与黄金的基本属性 原油,被誉为"工业的血液"或"黑金",因其在工业生产中的不可替代性和巨大的经济价值 而得名。作 ...
山金期货原油日报-2025-03-25
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-25 02:20
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间:2025年03月25日08时14分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | 3月24日 | | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 百分比 | | | | 绝对值 | | | | 原油期货 | Sc -0.10 -0.02% | 元/桶 | 534.40 | | | 11.00 | 2.10% | | | WTI - 0 | 美元/桶 | 68.29 | | | 0.81 | 1.20% | | | Brent 0.92 1.28% | 美元/桶 | 73.03 | | | 2.10 | 2.96% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI -0.03 -0.56% | 美元/桶 | 6.16 | | | 0.63 | 11.37% | | | Sc-Brent -0.95 | 美元/桶 | 1.42 | -40.21% | | -0.66 | -31.77% | | | Brent-WTI 2.37 99.63% ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-2025-03-25
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-25 02:04
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间:2025年03月25日08时25分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读: 消息面上,新疆钢企压减粗钢产量 10%,提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所回落,厂库继续下降,社库回落,总库存 继续下降,表需环比继续上涨,数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。明目前房地产仍处于筑底的过程中 。从技术上看,目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡 操作建议: 逢低轻仓做多,已经做多的,多单可轻仓持有 | 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3204 | 48 | 1.52% | -13 | -0.40% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3396 | 45 | 1.34% | 10 | 0.30% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格(HRB400E 20mm,上海) | 元/吨 | 3260 | 40 | 1.2 ...