Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy-side positives for the steel market have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction area significantly declining and completion and construction areas still showing large year-on-year drops. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. Technically, steel prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production cuts, iron ore demand is expected to decline. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively high and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. The iron ore futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Policy-side positives are realized, real estate in core cities stabilizes while lower-tier cities are bottoming out. Demand is expected to weaken with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The impact of production cut rumors is limited, and steel mills' initiative to cut production is weak [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: Prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of threaded rods and hot-rolled coils have declined. For example, the threaded rod futures price dropped by 2.79% compared to last week, and the hot-rolled coil futures price dropped by 3.54% [1]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production decreased by 2.58% week-on-week, while the hot-rolled coil production increased by 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.92% week-on-week, with the threaded rod social inventory dropping by 5.25% and the hot-rolled coil social inventory dropping by 2.08% [1]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' iron water production is expected to decline further. The supply is relatively high, and the port inventory decline is slowing down with a high proportion of trade ore inventory [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The prices of various iron ore varieties have declined. For example, the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port dropped by 2.46% compared to last week [3]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 7.41% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 3.40% [3]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory decreased by 0.87% week-on-week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 1.50% [3]. III. Industry News - In May 2025, the coking coal long-term agreement coal-steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decline of 2.39% [5]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has failed to be sold in 16 consecutive auctions, with a starting price of 750 yuan/ton [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 122.25 tons week-on-week [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, and the daily average iron water output was 2.4191 million tons [8]. - The Gabonese government announced that it will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 as part of its national strategy to promote industrialization and reduce dependence on unprocessed resource exports [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in June and July, with cautious monetary policy possibly lagging economic data. Trump administration's tariff actions may return, potentially harming demand - dependent commodities, while some commodity prices are near cost levels and may face industrial structure adjustments. There's also sensitivity to the risk of a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. OPEC+ will increase production in July, with supply growth expected but the timing uncertain, seen as a medium - to - long - term negative. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated, and there should be sensitivity to geopolitical events. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with supply - demand pressure and short - term geopolitical and tariff disturbances [2]. - The mid - term trading strategy is to sell high, short - term shorts can be held but with stop - losses due to geopolitical risks. Options can be considered for those betting on geopolitical changes and OPEC+'s unexpected policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Futures and Related Price Data - On May 30, Sc was at 447.90 yuan/barrel, down 19.20 yuan (-4.11%) from the previous day and 4.90 yuan (-1.08%) from the previous week. WTI was at 60.79 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-0.21%) from the previous day and 0.97 dollars (-1.57%) from the previous week. Brent was at 62.61 dollars/barrel, down 0.75 dollars (-1.18%) from the previous day and 2.42 dollars (-3.72%) from the previous week [2]. - Various price differences such as Sc - WTI, Sc - Brent, and Brent - WTI also showed significant changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. 2. Crude Oil Spot and Related Data - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 63.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.60 dollars (-0.94%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 63.96 dollars/barrel, down 0.29 dollars (-0.45%) from the previous week. Other spot prices like Oman, Dubai, and ESPO also had slight declines from the previous week [2]. - The premiums and discounts of different crude oils also changed significantly compared to the previous day and week [2]. 3. Product Spot and Related Data - Diesel (East China) was at 6826.18 yuan/ton, up 7.27 yuan (0.11%) from the previous day and 176.82 yuan (2.66%) from the previous week. Gasoline (East China) was at 7700.27 yuan/ton, up 4.91 yuan (0.06%) from the previous day and 67.00 yuan (0.88%) from the previous week [2]. - The price differences and ratios between diesel, gasoline, and Sc also changed [2]. 4. Inventory and Position Data - Sc warehouse receipts totaled 402.90 million barrels, with no change from the previous day. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 401.31 million barrels, up 0.82 million barrels (0.20%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was 440.36 million barrels, down 2.80 million barrels (-0.63%) from the previous week [2]. - CFTC non - commercial net positions were 16.57 million contracts, down 2.07 million contracts (-11.12%) from the previous week. Commercial net positions were - 16.91 million contracts, up 1.77 million contracts (-9.47%) from the previous week [2]. 5. Industry News - The US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation may face a breakdown as the new US proposal is considered "incoherent and disjointed" by Iranian officials, and the next round of negotiations is uncertain [3]. - OPEC+ will increase production by 41.1 million barrels per day in July and will decide on August's production policy on July 6. Saudi Arabia's reasons for supporting production increase include appeasing Trump, regaining market share, meeting demand, and punishing cheating members [7][8]. - Canada's Alberta wildfires threaten nearly 50 million barrels of daily crude oil production [8]. - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June and July, with low probabilities of rate cuts [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月29日16时48分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位回调，沪金主力收跌0.81%，沪银主力收平。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战反复，经济衰退地缘异动风险仍存； 美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，美国贸易法庭作出阻止特朗普全球关税的裁定，避险情绪 降温。美国彻底告别顶级AAA信评俱乐部，20年期新债遇冷。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储会议纪 要显示，美联储承认通胀和失业率恐同时攀升，将面临艰难取舍。美国企业设备支出创六个月最大降幅，关税不确定性挥之不去。 目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率承压偏弱；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventories rose, social inventories continued to fall, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. The rumored production cuts have limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises think the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, prices have broken through the recent oscillation range downward. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased last week, and the decline rate has widened. Iron - water output is higher than last year's level and peak. If production - limit policies are introduced, it will further suppress iron - ore demand. With the end of the downstream consumption peak, steel apparent demand has declined, and iron - water output is expected to fall further. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The decline rate of port inventories is slowing, and the proportion of trade - mine inventories is high, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, futures prices have fallen significantly but are still within the recent oscillation range and may break downward under the influence of falling rebar prices. [5] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have generally declined. For example, the rebar主力合约收盘价 is 2980 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力合约收盘价 is 3111 yuan/ton, down 2.84% from last week. [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The rebar主力基差 is 150 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil主力基差 is 89 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from last week. Different futures spreads also show certain changes. [3] - **Production and Operation**: The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.15%, down 0.47% from last week; the average daily iron - water volume is 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 59.74%, up 0.43%. National building - material steel mill rebar production is 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - roll production is 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products is 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; rebar social inventory is 416.46 million tons, down 4.24% from last week; hot - roll social inventory is 263.27 million tons, down 2.26% from last week. Factory inventories of five major steel products are 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week. [3] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building - steel trading volume is 15.91 million tons, down 17.28% from last week; the weekly terminal procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai is 15,500 tons, down 11.93% from last week. [3] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 41,975 tons, down 9,650 tons; the number of registered hot - roll warehouse receipts is 167,722 tons, down 75,934 tons. [3] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore主力 contract is 698.5 yuan/dry ton, down 3.66% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined to different degrees. [5] - **Basis and Spread**: The DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 34 yuan/dry ton, down 2.0 yuan from last week; the 1 - 5 spread is 19 yuan/dry ton, down 3.5 yuan from last week. [5] - **Supply - Side Data**: Australian iron - ore shipments are 1771.1 million tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipments are 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports is 1058.8 million tons, up 0.09% from last week. [5] - **Inventory Data**: The total port inventory is 13,987.83 million tons, down 1.26% from last week; the port trade - mine inventory is 9581.41 million tons, down 1.41% from last week. The total inventory of imported sintering powder ore of 64 sample steel mills is 1243.52 million tons, down 3.86% from last week. [5] - **Production Data**: The daily output of iron concentrate powder of 186 national sample mines is 50.09 million tons, up 0.42% from last week. [5] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron - ore futures warehouse receipts is 1900 hands, down 400 hands. [5] Industry News China's 47 - port imported iron - ore inventory is 14,463.79 million tons, down 163.84 million tons from last Monday. From May 19th to May 25th, 2024, the total iron - ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1417.4 million tons, up 41.1 million tons from the previous period, showing a slight inventory - building trend, and the current inventory is at the maximum since the beginning of the year. [7]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 3、伊朗将6月销往亚洲的轻质原油的价格定位较阿曼/迪拜均价升水1.80美元/桶。 4、据CME"美联储观察"：美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为5.6%。美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为74.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为 23.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.1%。 5、当地时间5月26日，德国总理默茨表示，德国和欧盟国家将会继续支持乌克兰，德国及其盟友已不再限制援助乌克兰武器的射程。俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫26日回应默 茨的言论说，如果欧洲国家取消向乌克兰提供远程打击武器的限制，这将是相当危险的举动，这将与俄罗斯调解乌克兰问题的意向背道而驰。乌克兰总统泽连斯基将于28日访 问德国，默茨计划与泽连斯基讨论俄乌和平谈判的可能性。（央视） 更新时间：2025年05月27日08时14分 | 原油 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 | 单位 5月26日 较上日 | | | 较上周 | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 | | | | 百分比 | | Sc 原 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. For steel products, it is recommended to short and conduct short - term trading, with an exit strategy if the price rebounds into the recent trading range. For iron ore, if a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress demand, and the current port inventory decline is slowing down, exerting pressure on futures prices [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory continued to decline, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. Rumors of production restrictions had limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises believe that the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation to do so voluntarily [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The price has broken through the recent trading range downward [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short and conduct short - term trading. If the price rebounds into the recent trading range, close the short position in time [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded bar futures contract closed at 3004 yuan/ton, down 2.12% from last week; the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3138 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from last week [3] - **Production and Inventory**: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points from last week; daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. National building material steel mills' threaded bar production was 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. Five major steel products' social inventory was 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; factory inventory was 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week [3] II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable. Last week, the pig iron output of 247 steel mills exceeded 2.436 billion tons, with a larger decline rate compared to the previous period. If a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. As the downstream consumption peak has ended and the apparent demand for steel has declined, it is expected that pig iron production will further decline in the near future. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline is slowing down, and the proportion of traded ore inventory is relatively high, exerting pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has dropped significantly but is still within the recent trading range [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have declined. For example, the DCE iron ore futures contract settled at 706.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.21% from last week; the SGX iron ore contract settled at 97.07 US dollars/dry ton, down 4.07% from last week [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7711 billion tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0588 billion tons, up 0.09% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 343.19 million tons, up 1.06% from last week. Port inventory was 13.98783 billion tons, down 1.26% from last week [4] III. Industry News - Coking enterprises decided to avoid blind production increases, control production to stabilize coke prices, and appropriately reduce coal inventory. Steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin initiated a second round of coke price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [6] - The total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.3441 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 637,000 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.1513 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1.0588 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons [6] - The global iron ore shipment volume was 3.1887 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.591 billion tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7292 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.9708 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43 billion tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.7425 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.635 billion tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 758.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons [6]

请务必阅读文后重要声明 第1页，共2页 投资咨询系列报告 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月26日08时03分 | 原油 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 | 单位 5月23日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | 百分比 | | Sc 原油期货 | 元/桶 452.80 | -0.90 | -0.20% | -3.40 | -0.75% | | WTI | 美元/桶 61.76 | 0.95 | 1.56% | -0.73 | -1.17% | | Brent | 美元/桶 65.03 | 1.00 | 1.56% | -0.30 | -0.46% | | Sc-WTI 内外价差 | 美元/桶 1.20 | -1.09 | -47.59% | 0.27 | 29.60% | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 -2.07 | -1.14 | 122.35% | -0.16 | 8.15% | | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 3.27 | 4.2 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月23日08时11分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 5月22日 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | | | | | | | | 绝对值 绝对值 百分比 | | | 百分比 | | | | | 原油期货 | Sc -16.40 | 元/桶 | 453.70 | | -3.49% | -7.00 | -1.52% | | | WTI - | 美元/桶 | 61.34 | | 0 | -0.35 | -0.57% | | | Brent -0.55 | 美元/桶 | 64.03 | | -0.85% | -0.59 | -0.91% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI -2.25 | 美元/桶 | 1.76 | | -56.12% | -0.57 | -24.48% | | | Sc-Brent -1.70 | 美元/桶 | -0.93 | | -221.10% | -0.33 | 54.93% | | | Brent-WTI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war persists, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - The US has been downgraded by Moody's, and the auction of new 20 - year US bonds was cold, showing investors' concerns about the fiscal outlook. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are rising [1]. - Multiple Fed officials expect tariffs to push up prices. Despite the temporary cooling of the US - China trade war, fiscal uncertainty makes the US economic outlook still weak. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is oscillating downward, and US bond yields are strong at a high level [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising in a step - like manner in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals continued to rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.06%. International gold prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic gold prices such as Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Market Performance**: The price trend of silver is anchored to that of gold. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions were reduced, and iShare silver ETF added positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver decreased slightly. International and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend compared with the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25. M2 increased by 0.24 year - on - year. The 10 - year US real bond yield, US bond spreads (3 - month - 10 - year, 2 - year - 10 - year), and various interest rate spreads showed different degrees of change. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42 compared with the previous day and 1.41 compared with the previous week [7][9]. - **Inflation**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change year - on - year and month - on - month. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [9]. - **Economic Growth**: GDP showed a decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate remained unchanged, and non - farm payrolls decreased by 0.08 [9]. - **Labor Market**: ADP employment decreased by 8.5, and the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged. The number of job vacancies decreased by 31.6, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs decreased by 16.98 [9]. - **Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index decreased by 6, existing home sales decreased by 25, new home sales increased by 10, and new home starts increased by 12.4 [9]. - **Consumption**: Retail sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Personal consumption expenditure increased month - on - month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 [9]. - **Industry**: The industrial production index increased year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.11 [9]. - **Trade**: Exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, imports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The trade deficit decreased by 1.73 [9]. - **Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.3, the ISM service PMI index increased by 0.8, the Markit manufacturing PMI index increased by 0.9, and the Markit service PMI index decreased by 2.9 [9]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased by 4.98 tons, while the US and the world's remained unchanged [9][11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar's share increased by 0.51, the euro's share decreased by 0.2, and the RMB's share remained basically unchanged [11]. - **Gold/ Foreign Exchange Reserves**: Globally, China, and the US all showed an increase in the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [11]. - **Safe - Haven Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 21.94, and the VIX index decreased by 0.18 compared with the previous day but increased by 2.86 compared with the previous week [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 0.39 compared with the previous day and 2.71 compared with the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from June 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing a trend of gradual change in the expected interest rate range [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted market confidence, and policy - side benefits have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel output has risen, inventories have declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, the short - term rally last week was followed by a downward trend this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. Iron ore demand may be further suppressed if a production - restriction policy is introduced. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices. Technically, the price may enter an oscillation phase after a short - term rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Conditions**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted confidence, and policy - side benefits fully materialized. The real estate market in core cities stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction areas dropping significantly and completion and construction areas still showing large year - on - year declines [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, steel output increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories continued to decline, total inventories dropped, and apparent demand rebounded. Steel mills believe the industry needs to cut production, but there is no incentive for voluntary production cuts [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term sharp rebound last week, prices faced downward pressure this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. Wait patiently for the price to complete bottom - building and then go long at low prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices mostly declined compared to last week. For example, the closing price of the thread steel futures main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 2.11% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The output of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 226.53 million tons, up 1.34% from last week, while hot - rolled coil output was 311.98 million tons, down 2.62% [3]. - **Inventory**: Five major varieties of social inventories were 993.67 million tons, down 3.81% from last week. Thread social inventories were 434.88 million tons, down 6.55% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The impact of the US tariff increase on steel exports has not yet emerged. Last week, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills exceeded 244.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: If a production - restriction policy is introduced, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to near the long - term trend line, and a short - term rebound may indicate the end of the medium - term downward trend and the entry into an oscillation phase [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 728.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.48% from the previous day and down 1.15% from last week [5]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1648.9 million tons, up 2.94% from last week, and Brazilian shipments were 751.1 million tons, up 37.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories totaled 14166.09 million tons, down 0.51% from last week, and port trade ore inventories were 9718.75 million tons, down 0.03% [5]. 3.3 Industry News As market sentiment faded, steel prices first rose and then fell. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 50 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. Steel mills' coke price reduction of 50 yuan was implemented. Iron ore spot prices rebounded. The average iron - water cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills decreased by 4 yuan to 2148 yuan/ton, and the average steel billet cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 2898 yuan/ton. The average profit of billet - making steel mills decreased by 46 yuan to 32 yuan/ton, the lowest in two months [7].