投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月10日08时26分 报告导读： 最近两天关税大战扰动市场，拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所增加，厂库 继续下降，社库回落，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，需求已经进入到高峰期。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示 房地产市场将逐步企稳回升，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费也将构成一定的负面冲击 。从技术上 看，期价不断走低，跌破了前期的点，在悲观市场氛围下，有可能继续探底。 操作建议： 维持观望，反弹后可尝试逢高做空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3088 3208 | -13 5 | -0.42% 0.16% | -78 -174 | -2.46 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年04月08日16时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.37%，沪银主力收涨0.26%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现；美国经济出现 更多转弱信号，但联储官员对降息态度谨慎。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，中美仍存升级可能。VIX低位上行；另外全 球股市暴跌，引发流动性担忧；③货币属性方面，面对经济不确定性，多位美联储决策者支持谨慎的政策方针。美国劳动力市场仍 存韧性，非农大幅超预期。美国通胀仍存韧性，2月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，超过预期的2.7%。目前市场预期美联储下次 降息至6月，预期25年总降息空间重回100基点左右，短期国债避险扰动，参考当年硅谷银行破产，美联储未必会跟随。美元指数 和美债收益率下行遇阻；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡下行，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期 高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月08日08时23分 报告导读： 周一全球股市大幅下挫，商品市场普跌，拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所 增加，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将 逐步企稳回升，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费也将构成一定的负面冲击 。从技术上看，期价不断 走低，跌破了前期的点，在悲观市场氛围下，有可能继续探底。 操作建议： 维持观望，反弹后可以做空，谨慎追空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3146 | -18 | -0.57% | -13 | -0.41% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3261 | -99 ...

投资咨询系列报告 1、国前财长萨默斯表示，特朗普政府即将实施的关税上调将对经济造成类似石油危机的冲击，使生产能力萎缩，从而推高物价和失业率。萨默斯表示："这种冲击将是一种我们通常 讨论油价飙升、地震或干旱等供应冲击的方式。""问题主要是会造成多大的破坏。""这些都是非常重要的经济政策，对外交关系和国家安全也有影响。"他说，"直接的"影响将是推高 价格，然后导致就业减少和投资减少。"这是一次典型的供应冲击"，让美联储"处于非常困难的境地"。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年04月03日08时02分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 4月2日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | 百分比 | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 552.20 | | -3.90 | -0.70% | 10.40 | 1.92% | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 70.73 | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月02日08时17分 报告导读： 昨日黑色系商品集体回升，主要因进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期。近期新疆有多家钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信心，但新疆整体产量规模 小，后续内次钢厂是否跟进有待观望。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所增加，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库存继续下降，表需环 比继续上涨。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在 筑底过程中，未来钢材的下游需求主要看热卷等其他品种 。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡偏弱的状态，有可能处于 震荡筑底的过程中。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3170 | 11 | 0.35% | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月01日08时19分 报告导读： 美国即将公布对等关税政策，亚洲股市、工业品等遭抛售，贵金属强势突破，黑色商品走势偏弱。近期新疆有多家钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信 心，但新疆整体产量规模小，后续内次钢厂是否跟进有待观望。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，本周螺纹钢产量有所增加，厂库继续下降，社库回落， 总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看， 低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，未来钢材的下游需求主要看热卷等其他品种 。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡 偏弱的状态，有可能处于震荡筑底的过程中。 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3159 | -38 | -1.19% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products**: Recent production cuts by steel enterprises in Xinjiang have boosted bullish sentiment, but the overall production scale in Xinjiang is small, and it remains to be seen whether other steel mills will follow. The real - estate market in core cities is showing signs of recovery, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel futures prices are oscillating around the 10 - day moving average, with an overall weak - oscillating trend [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The news of steel production restrictions in Xinjiang has boosted bullish sentiment and stabilized iron ore prices. The supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level, and port inventories are expected to rise in the future. Terminal demand is warming up, and steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the room for further increase in iron - water production is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Section **I. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)** - **Market Situation**: Xinjiang steel mills' production cuts have boosted confidence, but follow - up actions are uncertain. Real - estate in core cities is recovering, while lower - tier cities are still bottoming out. Futures prices are oscillating weakly [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Prices**: Thread steel futures closed at 3197 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day; hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3374 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2]. - **Production**: National thread steel production was 227.43 million tons, up 0.54% week - on - week; hot - rolled coil production was 324.75 million tons, up 0.13% [2]. - **Inventory**: Total inventory of five major steel products decreased, with thread social inventory down 1.36% and hot - rolled coil social inventory down 4.08% [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: News of steel production restrictions in Xinjiang has stabilized iron ore prices. Supply is high, and port inventories may rise. Terminal demand is warming up, but the increase in iron - water production is limited [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, avoid chasing up or selling down, and consider going long lightly on dips [3]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Prices**: DCE iron ore futures settled at 785.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.70% week - on - week; McFadden powder in Qingdao Port was 765 yuan/wet ton, down 0.13% from the previous day [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 16.828 billion tons, down 0.86%; Brazilian shipments were 5.823 billion tons, up 56.24% [4]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories totaled 144.6249 billion tons, up 0.29% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Trump trade war, concerns about a US recession, and risk aversion have jointly pushed up the prices of precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to be volatile and bullish in the short term, experience high-level fluctuations in the medium term, and rise in a stepwise manner in the long term [7]. - The short - term strategy is to be volatile and bullish, the medium - term strategy is to be weakly volatile, and the long - term strategy is to rise in a stepwise manner. The support and resistance levels for Shanghai Gold futures are 690 - 695 and 725 - 730 respectively, and for Shanghai Silver futures are 8000 - 8030 and 8500 - 8530 respectively [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Safe - Haven Attribute - Recent trade wars and geopolitical events have reignited, increasing risk - aversion demand. Trump's 25% tariff on imported cars and the expansion of the trade war, along with geopolitical risks such as the tense Middle - East situation and the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this [2]. - The US debt has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified market doubts about the US dollar's credit system [2]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The US economy has shown more signs of weakness, with significant declines in retail sales and consumer confidence, a loosening employment market, and persistent overall inflation data, increasing the risk of recession [3]. - The Fed's March interest - rate decision indicates that the pace of balance - sheet reduction will slow down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US. This has strengthened the market's bet on a decline in real interest rates and reduced the cost of holding gold. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged until June 2025, with the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 rising to 75 basis points, one more rate cut than the Fed's dot - plot suggests [3]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption is constrained by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars has offset some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, keeping central - bank gold - buying demand at a high level [4]. - The CRB commodity index is under pressure and declining, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of gold and silver in the CFTC have increased at high levels, and the net long positions of Shanghai gold and silver futures in China have continued to increase. The world's largest gold and silver ETFs have ended their long - term downward trends and have rapidly increased their positions [5]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution - In the short term, the inflation - upward risk brought by the trade war remains to be released, and the Fed may maintain a cautious attitude or even postpone rate cuts. The realization of the trade - war phase, the resumption of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, or a cease - fire in the Middle East may weaken short - term risk - aversion demand, increasing the short - term correction pressure on gold prices after a sharp rise. In the long term, the reconstruction of the global economic and political system will drive the reconstruction of the monetary system, and geopolitical risks and the expectation of the Fed's policy shift to easing will still provide support [7]. 6. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - In March 2024, the Fed raised economic and inflation expectations, maintained the guidance of rate cuts within the year, and hinted at a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction [9]. - In May 2024, the Fed maintained interest rates, announced a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction from June 1, and hinted that the next rate action was unlikely to be a rate hike [9]. - In June 2024, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of rate cuts for the year [9]. - In July 2024, the Fed continued to keep interest rates unchanged, confirmed progress in inflation reduction, and suggested that a rate cut might be an option in September [10]. - In September 2024, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, with a larger - than - usual initial rate - cut amplitude, and announced further rate - cut plans [10]. - In November 2024, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, expressed concerns about inflation pressure, and indicated that future rate cuts might slow down [10]. - In December 2024, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot - plot showed that the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 had decreased [10]. - In January 2025, the Fed paused rate cuts, stating that inflation was still somewhat high and the labor market had cooled but remained robust [10]. - In March 2025, the Fed maintained interest rates, announced a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction from April 1, and expected two rate cuts in 2025, but the number of those expecting no rate cuts in the dot - plot increased [10].

山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年03月28日08时17分 一、螺纹、热卷 投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 消息面上，新疆有更多钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，本周螺纹钢产量有所增加，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库 存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范 围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 ，钢材的下游需求主要看热卷。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡偏弱的 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3208 | -1 | -0.03% | 32 | 1.01% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3381 | | -5 -0.15% | 24 | 0.71% | | 期现货价格 | ...

一、螺纹、热卷 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年03月27日08时17分 报告导读： 消息面上，新疆有更多钢企压减粗钢产量 ，提振多头信心。我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所回落，厂库继续下降，社库回落，总库 存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨，数据利多螺纹热卷的价格。目前房地产仍处于筑底的过程中 ，下游需求主要看热卷。从技术上看，目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡，整体处于震荡偏弱的状态。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3209 3386 | -11 0 | -0.34% 0 | 47 38 | 1.49% 1.14% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 元/吨 | 3260 3380 | -20 -1 ...