Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing up 1.31% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.15%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are being reached in batches, concerns about European and American debts and the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with employment weakening and inflation being moderate, leading to a rebound in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose to the highest level since mid - July, following the trends in European and British bond markets, as investors worried that governments of major economies were losing control of fiscal deficits. Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook, and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for overstepping his authority, raised concerns about the Fed's independence. In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell hinted that the Fed might need to cut interest rates but would act cautiously. He announced the Fed's new policy framework, returning to a flexible inflation target. The US manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, and factories said that tariffs have made the situation worse than during the Great Recession. Currently, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has soared from 40% before the July non - farm payrolls to about 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and Treasury bond yields fluctuated strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3599.50 per ounce, up 2.37% from the previous day and 4.54% from the previous week; London gold was at $3490.00 per ounce, up 0.43% from the previous day and 3.65% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% from the previous day and 4.32% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 809.97 yuan per gram, up 1.27% from the previous day and 4.16% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from the previous week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 142,330 lots, up 2.67% from the previous day and down 14.57% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 221,198 lots, up 1.73% from the previous day and 10.56% from the previous week. LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 118,272 lots, an increase of 266 lots; the top 10 totaled 153,498 lots, a decrease of 146 lots; the top 20 totaled 195,167 lots, an increase of 1,757 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 15,049 lots, an increase of 356 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,936 lots, an increase of 540 lots; the top 20 totaled 26,248 lots, an increase of 964 lots [3]. 2. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $41.73 per ounce, up 2.40% from the previous day and 7.84% from the previous week; London silver was at $40.52 per ounce, down 0.14% from the previous day and up 5.47% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 9,820 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous day and up 5.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 9,780 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 5.60% from the previous week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from the previous week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,996,200 lots, up 0.69% from the previous day and 18.68% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,489,224 lots, down 0.03% from the previous day and up 4.02% from the previous week. The visible inventory totaled 42,796 tons, up 0.90% from the previous week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 119,197 lots, an increase of 868 lots; the top 10 totaled 165,732 lots, an increase of 2,404 lots; the top 20 totaled 210,707 lots, an increase of 5,979 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 48,371 lots, an increase of 1,638 lots; the top 10 totaled 77,222 lots, a decrease of 254 lots; the top 20 totaled 100,335 lots, a decrease of 1,599 lots [7]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $665.4234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from the previous value. M2 (year - on - year) is 4.82%, up 0.60 percentage points [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 1.97% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.32, up 0.63% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.54, down 15.63% from the previous day [8]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts in different meetings from September 2025 to December 2026 are presented in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term risk - aversion due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising stagflation risks in the US economy, along with a rebound in Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold's risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes also support these trends [1]. - The trend of gold prices serves as an anchor for silver prices. Currently, there is a slight reduction in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF holdings in terms of capital, and a slight increase in silver's visible inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and stronger, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.21%. The market now expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to have soared from around 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts this year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3516.10 per ounce, up $105.40 (3.09%) from last week; London gold was at $3474.90 per ounce, up $140.65 (4.22%) from last week. Shanghai gold's main contract closed at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 2.97% from last week [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The spread between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold was - 5.96 yuan per gram, down 25% from last week; the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.64, down 2.38% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from last week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 138,624 lots, down 20.60% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 120,616 lots, an increase of 624 lots; the top 10 totaled 155,263 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 13,767 lots, a decrease of 550 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,190 lots, a decrease of 672 lots [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are crucial [6]. - **Related Data**: - **Price**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $40.75 per ounce, up $2.20 (5.71%) from last week; London silver was at $40.58 per ounce, up $2.57 (6.76%) from last week. Shanghai silver's main contract closed at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 5.02% from last week [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spread between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver was 525.93 yuan per gram, down 13.70% from last week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract was - 24 yuan per kilogram [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from last week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,961,835 lots, up 8.88% from last week. The total visible inventory was 42,794 tons, up 0.90% from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 115,138 lots, a decrease of 681 lots; the top 10 totaled 159,406 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 49,270 lots, a decrease of 354 lots; the top 10 totaled 82,445 lots, an increase of 758 lots [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points from last time; the Fed's total assets are $6,654.234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from last time [8]. - **Economic Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, unchanged; the US dollar index is 97.70, down 0.52% from last week; the inflation data shows that the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, up 0.10 percentage points from last time [8][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,300.41 tons, up 0.08% from last time; the US's are 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36,268.07 tons, unchanged [11][12]. - **Fed Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September 2025 is over 89.8%, and the probability distribution of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also provided [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, the focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline during the peak season, but concerns remain due to the real - estate market's slow recovery. Technically, both rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the Bollinger Bands' lower support, possibly opening a downward space [2]. - For the iron ore market, although the iron ore trend is the strongest among the black series due to potential growth in steel mill's molten iron production after the parade, the upward space is limited as the molten iron output is already high and terminal demand is not optimistic. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season. Technically, the 01 contract shows a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Focus**: The market is now focused on verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonal patterns suggest that demand should rise and inventory fall during the peak season, but the real - estate market's slow recovery may lead to lower - than - expected demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production increased, apparent demand slightly rose, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week. Total production of the five major varieties increased, total inventory rose, and apparent demand also increased. After the parade, production is expected to further increase [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, rebar and hot - rolled coils have broken below the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, potentially opening a downward space [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short positions can be held [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - Rebar主力合约收盘价 was 3115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan (-1.42%) from the previous day and 23 yuan (-0.73%) from last week [3]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 was 83.36%, down 0.23 percentage points from last week [3]. -全国建材钢厂螺纹钢产量 was 220.56 tons, up 5.91 tons (2.75%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. After the parade, there is potential for an increase in molten iron production, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract oscillates around the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily K - line, with the overall Bollinger Bands' opening narrowing. It has a high probability of mid - term oscillation, and short - term upward space is limited [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - 麦克粉（青岛港） was priced at 750 yuan/wet ton, down 16 yuan (-2.09%) from the previous day and the same from last week [4]. - 澳大利亚铁矿石发货量 was 1640.9 tons, down 78.1 tons (-4.54%) from last week [4]. - 北方六港到货量合计 was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons (12.82%) from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From August 25th to 31st, 2025, the total iron ore arrival at 45 ports in China was 2526.0 tons, a 132.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The arrival at the six northern ports was 1300.8 tons, up 147.8 tons [6]. - As of the week ending August 31st, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 tons, a 241.0 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 tons, up 141.7 tons [7]. - Some coal mines in Changzhi Qinyuan area plan to stop production on September 2nd and resume on September 4th. The total approved production capacity of the affected mines is 790 tons, with an estimated impact on daily raw coal production of about 2.52 tons [7]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on September 1st after a 5 - day shutdown. The approved production capacity of this mine is 240 tons, and the total affected raw coal production during the shutdown was 4 tons [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the overall market will maintain a weak oscillation. Although downstream demand is expected to improve marginally and inventory is likely to decline, production will also increase. As the apparent demand is unlikely to meet the market's optimistic expectations, there is a significant risk that the high expectations will not be fulfilled. It is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high in the unilateral strategy, and consider short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract in the arbitrage strategy [81][92]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - **Supply**: Due to good production profits, the overall steel output has changed little, remaining volatile in the past quarter. The output of the five major varieties has fluctuated between 8.5 million and 9 million tons per week, and the rebar output has remained around 2.2 million tons per week, while the hot - rolled coil output has recently declined. With the arrival of the consumption peak season and the end of the parade, the overall output is expected to rise [8][81]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar has increased month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coil has decreased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties has rebounded. Recently, the apparent demand for plates has declined from a high level. Seasonally, with the end of the summer heat, the apparent demand is expected to recover, but it is still at a five - year low, similar to the same period last year. It is expected that there will be no significant year - on - year increase in demand [8][81]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory has decreased briefly, while the social inventory has been rising. The inventory is being transferred from steel mills to downstream, indicating that steel mills are not optimistic about the future market. The total inventory of the five major varieties has rebounded and is close to last year's level. Currently, the inventory pressure is not high, and it is expected to continue to decline during the consumption peak season. However, inventory is not the main contradiction but a factor that triggers a negative feedback loop in prices [8][81]. - **Price and Market**: The previous price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution" trading, and the market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. According to past rules, the demand expectations for the consumption peak season have been priced in the early - August prices. Although demand will improve in September, it still lags far behind the optimistic expectations at the previous price peak [8][81]. 2. Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Markets - In the past month, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, with the decline of rebar being more significant and that of hot - rolled coil being smaller. The rebar basis has widened, mainly because the decline of futures prices is greater than that of spot prices. The hot - rolled coil basis has also widened slightly, indicating that hot - rolled coil has been relatively stronger than rebar recently. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of rebar has been falling and has entered a range where it is possible to go long on the spread between the 10 - and 01 - contracts. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of hot - rolled coil has remained fluctuating around zero. The spread of the 10 - contract between hot - rolled coil and rebar is high and may correct significantly in the future [12][15][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis of Steel - **Supply**: The decline in production in July was mainly due to the off - season of downstream consumption in summer, when steel mills actively reduced production. The crude steel output has gradually recovered to a high level in the same period. The weekly output of steel has increased slightly month - on - month. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both increased recently, and the total output of the five major varieties has also risen. After the end of the parade - related production restrictions, the production recovery is expected to accelerate. The output of independent electric arc furnaces remains relatively high, with the output of independent electric arc furnace rebar at a multi - year peak, and the operating rate and capacity utilization rate both remaining high. The iron - water output is basically flat and remains at a relatively high level. After the end of the parade - related restrictions, the iron - water output is expected to continue to increase [41][49][66]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for building materials has improved month - on - month, while the demand for medium - thick plates has declined from a high level. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both improved, but the total demand for rebar and the five major steel varieties is still at a five - year low. In July, steel exports rebounded month - on - month, and the export volume of steel billets increased significantly. The increase in exports is expected to be mainly driven by the high - speed growth of steel billet exports, and the trade war has not affected steel and steel billet exports [55][57][58]. - **Profit**: The decline in gross profit is mainly because the recent increase in the spot prices of coking coal and coke is significantly greater than that of rebar. After a brief profit recovery, the profits of short - process steel mills in various regions have declined [62][68]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products in steel mills has decreased month - on - month, with the rebar inventory in steel mills starting to decline and the inventory of other varieties continuing to increase, resulting in a slight decrease in the total steel mill inventory. The social inventory of major steel products has been increasing continuously, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil has been rising rapidly. The rebar inventory and the total inventory of the five major varieties have increased rapidly, while the overall inventory of upstream steel mills has declined, indicating that upstream steel mills are not optimistic about future prices and are transferring inventory to downstream [70][73][75]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - **Market Outlook**: The Langer Steel PMI index shows short - term pressure. The price peak usually precedes the PMI index peak. The PMI index reflects industry demand and is similar to the trend of social inventory. From August to September each year, the PMI index reaches its peak and then declines, indicating that the market is actually weak when downstream consumption improves. Currently, the index has been at 49.8 for two consecutive months and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. Historically, the probability of price decline is high in May, August, and September, and the probability of price increase is high in December, January, and July [82][84][88]. - **Investment Opportunities**: In the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high. In the arbitrage strategy, short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract can be considered. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently low and may rise in the future, presenting a good long - position opportunity. The ratio of rebar to coke has declined significantly and may continue to decline, but in the short term, there may be a rebound in the rebar/coke ratio [38][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing pressure as OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and the US oil demand may enter a seasonally weak phase in September. Geopolitical issues such as the Iran nuclear problem and the Russia-Ukraine situation remain uncertain, and the implementation of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act may trigger additional information. The short - term oil price may fluctuate, and the trading range is [63, 65]. Traders can follow up after the range is broken, and those betting on event - driven opportunities can choose to ambush option positions [2]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 29, the price of Sc crude oil futures was 485.20 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (0.73%) from the previous day and down 8.40 yuan (-1.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 64.01 dollars/barrel, down 0.31 dollars (-0.48%) from the previous day and up 0.24 dollars (0.38%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.46 dollars/barrel, down 0.19 dollars (-0.28%) from the previous day and down 0.33 dollars (-0.49%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc - WTI spread was 4.30 dollars/barrel, up 0.83 dollars (24.08%) from the previous day and down 1.14 dollars (-20.95%) from the previous week. The Sc - Brent spread was 0.85 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (529.37%) from the previous day and down 0.57 dollars (-40.12%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent - WTI spread was 3.45 dollars/barrel, up 3.32 dollars (2457.01%) from the previous day and up 2.03 dollars (143.26%) from the previous week. The Sc_C1 - C2 spread was - 8.20 yuan/barrel, up 0.50 yuan (5.75%) from the previous day and down 1.60 yuan (24.24%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc_C1 - C6 spread was - 4.80 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (42.17%) from the previous day and down 5.00 yuan (-2500.00%) from the previous week. The Sc_C1 - C13 spread was 0.90 yuan/barrel, up 3.10 yuan (140.91%) from the previous day and down 5.60 yuan (-86.15%) from the previous week [2]. - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 70.58 dollars/barrel, up 0.97 dollars (1.39%) from the previous day and up 0.60 dollars (0.86%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 1.66 dollars (2.39%) from the previous day and down 0.10 dollars (-0.14%) from the previous week [2]. - Oman crude oil was at 71.22 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (1.01%) from the previous day and up 0.47 dollars (0.66%) from the previous week. Dubai crude oil was at 71.15 dollars/barrel, up 0.74 dollars (1.05%) from the previous day and up 0.40 dollars (0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - ESPO crude oil was at 65.06 dollars/barrel, up 0.92 dollars (1.43%) from the previous day and up 0.18 dollars (0.28%) from the previous week. The OPEC basket of crude oil's premium was 3.12 dollars/barrel, up 1.25 dollars (66.84%) from the previous day and up 0.16 dollars (5.41%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent DTD premium was 3.72 dollars/barrel, up 0.86 dollars (30.07%) from the previous day and down 3.86 dollars (-2757.14%) from the previous week. The Oman premium was 3.76 dollars/barrel, up 4.66 dollars (517.78%) from the previous day and down 5.77 dollars (-287.06%) from the previous week [2]. - The Dubai premium was 3.69 dollars/barrel, up 4.91 dollars (402.46%) from the previous day and up 0.60 dollars (19.42%) from the previous week. The ESPO premium was - 2.40 dollars/barrel, down 0.21 dollars (-9.59%) from the previous day and down 16.01 dollars (-117.63%) from the previous week [2]. - Diesel in East China was at 6711.18 yuan/ton, down 4.73 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous day and down 8.45 yuan (-0.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 7773.36 yuan/ton, down 0.18 yuan (-0.00%) from the previous day and down 12.09 yuan (-0.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 13.831784, down 0.11 (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 0.22 (1.60%) from the previous week. The ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 16.020947, down 0.12 (-0.72%) from the previous day and up 0.25 (1.57%) from the previous week [2]. - The difference between diesel and gasoline in East China was - 1062.18 yuan/ton, down 4.55 yuan (0.43%) from the previous day and up 3.64 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous week. The total Sc warehouse receipts were 572.10 million barrels, up 95.40 million barrels (20.01%) from the previous week [2]. - The US strategic petroleum reserve was 404.20 million barrels, up 0.78 million barrels (0.19%) from the previous week. Commercial crude oil was 418.29 million barrels, down 2.39 million barrels (-0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - Cushing crude oil in the US was 22.63 million barrels, down 0.84 million barrels (-3.57%) from the previous week. Gasoline was 222.33 million barrels, down 1.24 million barrels (-0.55%) from the previous week. Distillate oil was 114.24 million barrels, down 1.79 million barrels (-1.54%) from the previous week [2]. - The non - commercial net position was 10.95 million contracts, down 1.07 million contracts (-8.93%) from the previous week. The commercial net position was - 13.09 million contracts, up 0.97 million contracts (-6.89%) from the previous week. The non - reported net position was 2.14 million contracts, up 0.11 million contracts (5.18%) from the previous week [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 90%. Sino - US tariffs are postponed, and there may be significant differences between the two countries. The US may sanction China due to the Russian oil issue. The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by Trump has come into effect, which may have a progressive and spill - over impact on the market [2]. - The E3 group may restart UN sanctions on Iran, and the situation around Iran may heat up. The Russia - Ukraine issue is progressing slowly, but there is an expectation of reaching an agreement. Pay attention to Trump's attitude and Putin's participation in the SCO Summit and the September 3 parade, which may bring new information [2]. Supply and Demand - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. It may evaluate the withdrawal of the second - batch 1.66 million barrels per day production cut in December (not confirmed, and the September OPEC+ meeting is likely to suspend production increase). Saudi Arabia may lower the crude oil price for Asian buyers in October to cope with sufficient supply and weak demand. India may continue to buy Russian oil [2]. Industry News - Affected by the US Labor Day holiday, US stocks will be closed on September 1. CME's precious metals and US oil contract trading will end at 02:30 on September 2, and stock index futures contract trading will end at 01:00 on September 2. ICE's Brent crude oil futures contract trading will end at 01:30 on September 2 [3]. - The CEO of Rosneft expects the global oil market supply surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and will drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4]. - China has become the world's first country to achieve large - scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil, with a cumulative production of over 5 million tons. The second - phase project of the Luda 5 - 2 North Oilfield has contributed over 100,000 tons of thermal recovery production, and the newly put - into - operation Kenli 10 - 2 Oilfield project has added over 14 million tons of heavy oil reserves [4]. - Hedge funds have reduced their bullish positions on US crude oil to the lowest level in about 18 years due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 contracts to 24,225 contracts, the lowest since January 2007 [4]. - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 29 was 412, up from 411 in the previous week. The total number of natural gas rigs was 119, down from 122 in the previous week [6]. - Iran's UN envoy said Iran is committed to diplomacy but will not negotiate under threat or coercion. It supports a short - term, unconditional technical extension of the nuclear agreement resolution [6]. - German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron called for secondary sanctions against Russia. They will promote sanctions against "third - country companies supporting the Russian war" [6]. - An executive of India's ONGC said that as long as the price is right, ONGC's refineries will continue to purchase Russian oil, and the government has not issued any advice on buying Russian oil [7]. - A Reuters survey shows that due to the increase in production of major oil - producing countries and the suppression of demand growth by US tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $67.65 per barrel, and the average price of US crude oil is expected to be $64.65 per barrel [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.4%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 5.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 48.6% [7]. - European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn refuted the view that interest rates cannot be cut again in the next few months. He said inflation risks are currently "tilted to the downside", and the US trade agreement may help reduce uncertainty, but a 15% tariff on most European exports by the US may slow down the eurozone's economic growth [8]. - In addition to Cook, who is in a lawsuit with Trump, the Fed governors include Powell, Jefferson, and Barr appointed by the Biden administration, who are on the same side as Powell. Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump in his first term, voted in favor of a rate cut in July. Trump has nominated Stephen Milan to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's resignation, and the Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Milan next Thursday [9]. - The Fed has finalized the new capital levels of the largest US banks after the June stress test. Morgan Stanley is seeking a re - evaluation of its upcoming capital level, and the Fed will announce the decision by the end of September [10]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore [1][2][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Views Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - The market focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline in the peak consumption season, but concerns remain due to the real estate market's slow recovery [2] - Rebar production has increased, apparent demand has slightly risen, factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased for seven consecutive weeks. Total production and inventory of the five major steel products have risen, with an increase in apparent demand [2] - Technically, rebar and hot-rolled coils have reached near the lower Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with potential strong support, but the pressure from the 10-day moving average above is significant [2] - The operation suggestion is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, short-sell on rallies, and avoid chasing prices [2] Iron Ore - Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has adjusted, possibly due to the sharp increase in coke prices. Iron ore production has slightly increased and may rise further after the military parade, but the upside is limited due to high production levels and weak terminal demand [5] - Global iron ore shipments are at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing, with no obvious accumulation yet, but an increase during the peak season is possible [5] - Technically, the 01 contract is oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with a narrowing band opening, indicating a high probability of mid-term oscillation and limited short-term upside [5] - The operation suggestion is to short-sell on rallies, conduct short-term trades, and set stop-loss and take-profit levels promptly [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils Price Data - Rebar futures prices have increased, with the main contract closing at 3,129 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous day and 0.26% from last week. Hot-rolled coil futures prices have also increased, with the main contract closing at 3,372 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day and down 0.09% from last week [3] - Rebar spot prices in Shanghai remained unchanged at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from last week. Hot-rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai increased to 3,410 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day and down 0.29% from last week [3] Production and Inventory - National rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 220.56 million tons, a 2.75% increase. Hot-rolled coil production decreased by 0.50 million tons to 324.74 million tons, a 0.15% decrease [3] - The five major steel products' social inventory increased by 29.17 million tons to 1,046.38 million tons, a 2.87% increase. Rebar social inventory increased by 21.26 million tons to 453.77 million tons, a 4.92% increase. Hot-rolled coil social inventory increased by 3.23 million tons to 285.78 million tons, a 1.14% increase [3] - The five major steel products' factory inventory decreased by 2.33 million tons to 421.5 million tons, a 0.55% decrease. Rebar factory inventory decreased by 4.91 million tons to 169.62 million tons, a 2.81% decrease. Hot-rolled coil factory inventory increased by 0.79 million tons to 79.68 million tons, a 1.00% increase [3] Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 4.78 million tons to 857.77 million tons, a 0.56% increase. Rebar apparent demand increased by 9.41 million tons to 204.21 million tons, a 4.83% increase. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.55 million tons to 320.72 million tons, a 0.17% decrease [3] Iron Ore Price Data - Iron ore spot prices have increased, with Macfie powder at Qingdao Port at 766 yuan/wet ton, up 1.32% from the previous day and last week. The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price is 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.93% from the previous day and 2.33% from last week [5] Supply and Demand - Australian iron ore shipments increased by 261.3 million tons to 1,719 million tons, a 17.93% increase. Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 188.2 million tons to 748.1 million tons, a 20.10% decrease [5] - Northern six-port arrivals decreased by 99.5 million tons to 1,153 million tons, a 7.94% decrease. The average daily port clearance volume decreased by 5.76 million tons to 341.04 million tons, a 1.66% decrease [5] - Port inventory increased by 25.93 million tons to 13,845.2 million tons, a 0.19% increase. Trade ore inventory increased by 19.80 million tons to 9,213.33 million tons, a 0.22% increase [5] Technical Analysis - The 01 contract is oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with a narrowing band opening, indicating a high probability of mid-term oscillation and limited short-term upside [5] 4. Industry News - China plans to cut steel production from 2025 to 2026 to address overcapacity and meet carbon emission peak targets. In the first seven months of this year, China's crude steel production decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to 594.47 million tons [7] - As of the week ending August 28, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, with apparent demand increasing for the second consecutive week [7] - Since August 25, 2025, six blast furnaces of foundry pig iron enterprises in Shandong and Henan have been shut down for maintenance due to environmental protection and low downstream demand, affecting daily production by about 0.44 million tons. Two more blast furnaces are planned to shut down on August 30 and September 1, increasing the daily impact to 0.85 million tons [7] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. The average profit per ton of quasi-primary coke in Shanxi is 75 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 128 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia is -17 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 80 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 28, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.63% week-on-week to 62.566 million heavy boxes, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days decreased by 0.5 days to 26.7 days [8]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月28日16时49分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.21%，沪银主力收涨0.56%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，避险需求回落；美国经 济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，引发外界担忧美联 储的独立性。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息， 但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国最新企业设备支出彰显韧性，但消费者对劳动力市场的 信心不断恶化。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次 。美元指数和美债收益率承压回落；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡 偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 90%, with an expected cut of around 75BP this year, which is more dovish than before. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. There is a possibility of evaluating the withdrawal of the second - stage 1.66 million barrels per day production cut in December, but the September OPEC+ meeting is likely to suspend the production increase. The demand is expected to remain resilient but decline seasonally after September 1st. Overall, OPEC+ is likely to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices. There are also short - term impacts from changes in interest rate cut expectations and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation, as well as potential geopolitical shocks from countries like Iran and Israel [2]. - The US oil rebounded slightly, while Sc continued to decline, approaching the previous low, reflecting weak domestic supply - demand expectations. The long - term supply is expected to increase, and as it enters September, US oil demand may weaken seasonally. There are uncertainties in geopolitical situations such as Iran's return to the Iran nuclear deal, the impact of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Technically, the US oil faces resistance at $65 per barrel, and the oil price may oscillate in the range of [63, 65]. A mid - term strategy of selling high is recommended, and aggressive traders can try short - term shorting with stop - loss [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 27th, Sc was at 479.70 yuan/barrel, down 3.31% from the previous day; WTI was at $63.86 per barrel, up 0.87%; Brent was at $67.80 per barrel, up 0.82%. The Sc - WTI spread was $3.60, down 43.55%; the Sc - Brent spread was - $0.34, down 113.91%; the Brent - WTI spread was $3.94, up 61.56% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $70.60 per barrel, up 0.68%; Brent DTD was at $71.18 per barrel, up 2.39%; Oman was at $71.22 per barrel, up 1.01%; Dubai was at $71.15 per barrel, up 1.05%; ESPO was at $65.06 per barrel, up 1.43% [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 6718.18 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; gasoline in East China was at 7779.91 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 14.004965, up 3.37%; the ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 16.218280, up 3.32% [2]. 3.2 Inventory Data - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 5.721 million barrels, up 20.01% [2]. - **US Strategic Petroleum Reserve**: It was 404.2 million barrels, up 0.19% [2]. - **EIA US Weekly Data (as of August 22nd)**: Commercial crude oil was 418.29 million barrels, down 0.57%; Cushing crude oil was 22.63 million barrels, down 3.57%; gasoline was 222.33 million barrels, down 0.55%; distillates were 114.24 million barrels, down 1.54% [2]. 3.3 CFTC Position Data (Weekly) - Non - commercial net positions were 120,200 contracts, up 2.97%; commercial net positions were - 140,600 contracts, down 1.22%; non - report net positions were 20,300 contracts, down 20.37% [2]. 3.4 Industry News - Russia announced a new temporary ban on gasoline exports from September 1st to September 30th, applicable to all exporters. The restriction on gasoline producers will be lifted from October 1st, aiming to stabilize the domestic fuel market [3]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels in the week ending August 22nd, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels [5]. - European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran this Thursday, and the procedure takes 30 days to complete [5]. - In the week ending August 24th, Russia's weekly crude oil shipments from ports decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to a four - week low of 2.72 million barrels per day, mainly due to the decline in the loading volume at the Ust - Luga port in the Baltic Sea [5]. - On August 26th, an explosion occurred on the oil pipeline connecting Ryazan and Moscow in Russia, and the transportation of oil products to Moscow via this pipeline has been indefinitely suspended [6]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 11.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 88.7%. In October, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 5.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45.5% [7]. - South Korea may close small and independent naphtha cracking units and merge some factories as part of the reform of the oversupplied petrochemical industry, which may reduce the demand for naphtha imports [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices show different trends today, with gold strong and silver weak. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut rebounds. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short - term, oscillating at a high level in the medium - term, and rising step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. Summary by Directory Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold and London gold have risen, while domestic gold prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract and gold T + D have also shown different degrees of increase. The basis and spreads, and ratios have also changed [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, while gold T + D positions have increased. LBMA inventory remains unchanged, Comex gold inventory has decreased, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold inventory has increased [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Gold Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [4]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract has risen, while the London silver price has fallen. Domestic silver prices such as the closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract and silver T + D have decreased [7]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions have increased, while Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract positions have decreased, and silver T + D positions have increased. Silver inventories in different places have different changes, and the total explicit inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in the Shanghai Silver Exchange have different changes in net positions and daily ratios [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the US Treasury yield spreads have all changed. US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic survey data have also shown different trends. Central bank gold reserves in different countries and regions have different changes, and some currency - related ratios have also changed [9][11][13]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is different [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai's adjustment of the property market purchase - restriction policy led to a significant rebound in black - series commodities and real - estate stocks, but the market focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. For steel products, although it's the consumption peak season, due to the real - estate market still being in the bottom - building process, there are concerns that future demand recovery may fall short of expectations. For iron ore, while there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron output after the military parade, the current output is relatively high and terminal demand is not optimistic, so the upward space is limited. The supply is at a high level, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [2][5] - For both steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils) and iron ore, the recommended operation is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait for price rebounds, and then choose the opportunity to short - sell at high prices [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, with apparent demand turning from a decline to an increase. Factory inventories have increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventories have increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total output of the five major steel products has risen, total inventories have increased, and apparent demand has also increased. In the consumption peak season, apparent demand should gradually recover and total inventories are expected to decline, but due to the real - estate market situation, there are concerns about insufficient demand recovery [2] - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rebound with position reduction, rebar and hot - rolled coils have seen an increase in positions and a decline in prices, indicating possible short - term pressure [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - sell on short - term after rebounds, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data Details**: See Table 1 in the report, including price changes of futures and spot prices, basis and spread, production, inventory, apparent demand, etc. For example, the rebar main contract closing price is 3113 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the national building materials steel mill rebar production is 214.65 tons, down 2.63% from the previous week; the five - major varieties social inventory is 1017.21 tons, up 2.66% from the previous week [3] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the profit margin has回调, possibly due to the sharp increase in coke prices. The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is at a relatively high level, with limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The port inventory shows signs of stabilizing, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5] - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract fluctuates repeatedly near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band, with the overall Bollinger Band opening narrowing, and the probability of medium - term oscillation is high, with limited short - term upward space [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for price rebounds, and then choose the opportunity to short - sell at high prices [5] - **Data Details**: See Table 2 in the report, including price changes of futures and spot prices, basis and spread, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, etc. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price is 776.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from the previous day; the Australian iron ore shipment is 1719 tons, up 17.93% from the previous week; the port inventory is 13845.2 tons, up 0.19% from the previous week [5] 3.3 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce issued affirmative rulings on anti - dumping and counter - vailing duties against 10 countries and regions for corrosion - resistant steel products, involving 2.9 billion US dollars of imported products [7] - In Yulin on August 26, state - owned large mines were operating normally, some private coal mines were shut down, and most coal mine inventories were at a medium level. The terminal inventory is mostly high, mainly for replenishing stocks as needed. Yulin coal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - In July, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills, hot - continuous rolling mills, and cold - continuous rolling mills of key statistical enterprises increased year - on - year [7] - Currently, Tangshan's steel section mills using billets are implementing production restrictions, with low operating rates and capacity utilization rates, and transportation is also restricted. Factory inventories are sufficient, but overall sales are weak, and market sentiment is mixed [8]