Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, driven by factors such as safe - haven and interest - rate cut expectations. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, leading to precious metals entering a high - level consolidation phase. [5][9] - The long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue as the economic system restructuring drives the currency system restructuring. However, there are also factors such as the rebound of the opportunity cost of holding gold and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut policy. [6][39] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, the gold price has more than doubled, with safe - haven and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the safe - haven logic has corrected, and the interest - rate cut logic has slowed down, causing precious metals to return to high - level consolidation. [5][9] - Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates in this bull market. The impact of the safe - haven logic on gold is more significant, and a correction in the safe - haven factor will have a greater impact. [5][12] - In previous bull markets, the volatility of silver was greater than that of gold. In recent years, the average increase of silver has been lower than that of gold, significantly dragged down by its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has continuously made up for losses, with its increase exceeding that of gold again. [5][13] 3.2 Evolution of Precious Metals Investment Logic - From the overall research framework of precious metals, safe - haven events are often the trigger for market movements, and the final trend is jointly dominated by monetary and commodity attributes. [15] - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have diverged significantly. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between them and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. [18] - In terms of interest - rate comparison among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down recently, and the interest - rate spread expectation has declined from its high level. [19] - Currently, there are more uncertainties in the market's expectation of whether the Fed will cut interest rates within the year. The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December has corrected from its high level, and the future pace of interest - rate cuts will significantly slow down. [23] - In terms of inflation comparison, the inflation of major economies has been generally mild recently, and the inflation pressure from the trade war has not emerged. [26] - The IMF's latest forecast in October 2025 shows that the global economic growth rate will slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026. It is expected that the US economic growth rate will be 2.0% and 2.1% in the next two years, an upward adjustment of 0.1 percentage point compared with the July forecast. [32] - The expected deficits of government bonds in major economies are high, the supply is increasing, and the yields are generally rising. The global debt problem further promotes the risk pricing of precious metals. [36] 3.3 Future Trend Outlook for Precious Metals - The restructuring of the economic system drives the restructuring of the currency system. As a super - sovereign currency, the long - term upward trend of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. [39] - In the "de - dollarization" process, the proportion of the US dollar in the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves and international payments has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is a long - term process. [41] - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has continued to decline recently, indicating that the risk of a US economic recession still exists. The US - Europe interest - rate spread has declined from its high level, and the US - China interest - rate spread has significantly narrowed. [43] - The real yield of US Treasury bonds has rebounded after encountering resistance in its decline, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend, but the support near the lower - break level is still strong. [45] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, the VIX of the S&P 500 is at an ultra - low level in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has decreased after Trump took office. [46] - In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC positions have recently declined from their high levels. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have continuously reduced their positions since 2021, but there has been a recent trend of increasing positions. [49] - The net long positions of Shanghai Gold futures companies have recently increased rapidly, while those of Shanghai Silver are still at a relatively low level. [52] - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less suppressed by high prices, and the investment demand from the private sector and central banks still has potential. [59] - The World Silver Association indicates that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) in 2025. [61] - Technically, London gold is under short - term upward pressure, showing weak consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 4080 (about 935 for the Shanghai Gold main contract) and the support at 3730 (about 855 for Shanghai Gold). [6] - London silver is under short - term upward pressure, showing strong consolidation in the medium term, and the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 50 (about 11,680 for the Shanghai Silver main contract) range and the effectiveness of the support at 44 (about 10,000 for Shanghai Silver). [6] - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 83.12% percentile in the past 45 years, with an average of 66.49. Recently, with the correction of the safe - haven factor and the slowdown of interest - rate cut expectations, the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue its downward trend. [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, and rebar production also increased, but the total inventory decline was slow. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production in the future, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils broke through the suppression of the upper 10-day moving average on the daily K-line chart and then pulled back. The market is likely to turn into a sideways trend in the future [2]. - In terms of iron ore, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to reduce production intentionally, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the consumption peak season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. With the realization of macro-level positive factors, futures prices face certain correction pressure [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar steel main contract is 3,106 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 1.97% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day and up 58 yuan or 1.78% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.94% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coils (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.22% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's rebar production is 212.59 million tons, up 5.52 million tons or 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production is 323.56 million tons, up 1.10 million tons or 0.34% from last week. The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,077.08 million tons, down 22.62 million tons or 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory is 430.81 million tons, down 6.67 million tons or 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory is 328.93 million tons, down 8.64 million tons or 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a pullback [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 800 yuan/dry ton, up 29 yuan or 3.76% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.26 US dollars or 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.61 US dollars or 2.51% from last week. The Platts 62% index is 107.7 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.55 US dollars or 2.43% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,721.6 million tons, down 7.9 million tons or 0.46% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 796.6 million tons, up 47.6 million tons or 6.36% from last week. The total arrival volume of the six northern ports is 1,095.9 million tons, down 107.3 million tons or 8.92% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (total of 45 ports) is 331.22 million tons, up 9.15 million tons or 2.84% from last week [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to pull back before buying on dips [5]. III. Industry News - The China Iron and Steel Association stated that in the first three quarters, the apparent consumption of crude steel nationwide was 649 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel for the whole year will decline for the fifth consecutive year. Overall, steel production and consumption are still showing a downward trend, with the decline in consumption greater than the decline in production [8]. - Li Chao, the deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that as of October 27, the coal inventory of the national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days; the underground gas storage has completed the annual gas injection task and achieved full storage for the winter [8]. - According to Mysteel, it is predicted that the diffusion conditions in Tangshan will gradually improve, and the pollution process will basically end. The Tangshan Heavy Pollution Weather Response Command decided to lift the Class II emergency response for heavy pollution weather in the whole city from 0:00 on November 1, 2025 [8]. - According to the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it was 49.2% in October 2025, a month-on-month increase of 1.5 percentage points, ending the continuous two-month month-on-month decline, and the industry operation has recovered [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide is 152.7293 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6344 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 0.0915 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide is 145.4248 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1889 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2016 million tons, an increase of 0.0751 million tons; the number of ships at the port is 118, an increase of 11 [8]. - Mysteel statistics show that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily molten iron production is 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 0.0354 million tons from last week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from their lows, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.27% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 1.41%. The short - term core logic includes: the risk of trade war has eased, but geopolitical risks still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1st. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4038.30 per ounce, up 2.45% from the previous day; London gold was at $3994.15 per ounce, down 0.31%. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 921.92 yuan per gram, up 1.07%; gold T + D closed at 921.02 yuan per gram, up 1.51%. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 hands; Shanghai gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.11% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.73 per ounce, up 3.08% from the previous day; London silver was at $48.18 per ounce, up 0.01%. [6] - **Domestic prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 11,441 yuan per kilogram, up 1.67%; silver T + D closed at 11,410 yuan per kilogram, up 1.90%. [6] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 hands; Shanghai silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.03% from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,371.78 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week. [8] - **Economic indicators**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35, the dollar index is 99.52, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.31. [8] - **Inflation indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74%. [10] - **Employment indicators**: The unemployment rate is 4.30%, and non - farm payrolls changed by 2.20 million. [10] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 188.52, the VIX index is 16.23, the CRB commodity index is 300.77, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0944. [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.55%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.91%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium term and a step - by - step upward trend in the long term [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing the risk of a trade war. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, although the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical fluctuations still exist. Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer confidence in October dropped to a six - month low, and the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [4]. - **Data**: Various data on gold, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [5]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight increases in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. With the Fed's decision and the China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [7]. - **Data**: Various data on silver, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - position rankings of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the rankings of long and short positions [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: Data such as the federal funds target rate, discount rate, reserve balance rate, total assets of the Fed, M2, etc., are presented with their changes compared to the previous week [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Key indicators including various interest - rate spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor - market data, real - estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, and trade data are provided with their changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of different countries, the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves, the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves, and other related data are presented [13]. - **Risk - Aversion and Commodity Attributes**: Data on the geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB are provided with their changes [13]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: The expected probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates are presented [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion situation shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump being optimistic and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term weak oscillations, medium - term high - level oscillations, and long - term step - up trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closing down 4.20% and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closing down 3.32% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex and London) and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D) all declined. The positions of Comex gold and Shanghai gold futures decreased, while the positions of gold T + D increased. Some inventories decreased slightly [2]. Silver - **Market - related Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is necessary during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic silver prices declined. The positions of Comex silver and Shanghai silver futures decreased, while the positions of silver T + D increased. Inventories generally decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly. There were changes in inflation, economic growth, labor market, real - estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and economic - survey indicators [8][10]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 30.89% compared to the previous day and 69.51% compared to the previous week, while the VIX index decreased by 10.97% compared to the previous week [12]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous day but increased by 2.08% compared to the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Expectations**: The market has different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate levels in different periods from October 2025 to September 2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factor shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weakening employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump expressing optimism and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled a meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising in a step - by - step manner in the long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 1.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed down 0.47% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic gold prices generally declined, with varying degrees of decrease in different price indicators. Some basis, spread, and ratio indicators changed significantly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of gold futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly recently [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is recommended during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic silver prices showed different trends. Some basis and spread indicators changed greatly, and there were also changes in positions and inventories [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The report lists the top 10 net - long and net - short positions of silver futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, showing the changes in positions of different companies [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous period. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly, and M2's year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There were changes in indicators such as the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and various interest - rate spreads. Inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and other aspects also had corresponding data changes [8][10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world remained stable, and there were changes in the proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in the IMF's foreign exchange reserves, as well as the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves [10][12]. - **Risk and Commodity - Related Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index decreased slightly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectation**: The report shows the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate range in different meetings in the future based on the CME FedWatch tool [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - A long - term bull market started in early 2024, and the current market is in the transition from confidence restoration to the main up - wave or may already be in the main up - wave. In the fourth quarter, there will be a shock adjustment in October, and there is still a possibility of a new medium - level rise at the end of the year [5][7]. - The driving forces of the bull market include the cyclical recovery and improved expectations of the macro - economy, policy support, technological progress, and the shift of asset allocation directions [7]. - The overall index position is not high, but the valuation is relatively high. It is currently on the eve of the main up - wave, and the "Davis double - click" has not started yet. It is speculated that the valuation will increase first, followed by performance improvement [124]. - Index differentiation is obvious. There will be an obvious adjustment in October, and the index will continue to fluctuate upward from November to December, with the center of gravity moving up. The style may change at the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite 50 will be stronger than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures. The long - term trend remains unchanged, and there is still hope for an upward movement around the Spring Festival [135]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Why the Current Bull Market Started in Early 2024 - From the definition of trends, the bear - to - bull conversion was completed in February 2024, which is also the case for other indices [10]. 3.2 Driving Forces of the Bull Market 3.2.1 Cyclical Recovery and Improved Expectations of the Macro - Economy - The fundamentals are still not optimistic, facing great pressure. For example, the growth rate of industrial added value has rebounded, but the growth rate of major industrial product output remains low; the growth rate of fixed asset investment continues to decline; the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level; the inflation situation is continuously weak; the unemployment rate has risen seasonally; the manufacturing PMI has been continuously weak; production is strong while demand is weak, and inventories are increasing; the PMI of the construction and service industries is at a low level; the export situation is expected to deteriorate [13][14][19]. - There are also many positive signals. China's share of global exports is increasing, and the new "new three" products (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) are emerging. The chip export is increasing year by year, and the chip import - export deficit is gradually shrinking. The production and sales of automobiles have increased, and the export volume has exceeded the sum of Germany and Japan. The production and sales of excavators have improved. The profitability of industrial enterprises above a designated size has improved month - on - month [60][61][65]. 3.2.2 Policy Support - Fiscal policy is loose. The government department's leverage ratio is relatively low and there is still room to increase leverage. Various consumption subsidies are likely to continue in some form, and other measures such as increasing the deficit scale and transfer payment intensity will be implemented [81]. - The Fed's interest rate cut provides room for domestic interest rate cuts. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the capital supply will continue to be loose. The capital interest rate still has room to decline [83][84]. - The stock market's rise can stimulate economic growth, help economic transformation, improve the corporate financing environment, relieve debt pressure, and enhance international competitiveness [88]. 3.2.3 Technological Progress - Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics represented by the open - source DeepSeek artificial intelligence large - model and Unitree Technology may be first applied in China. The chip industry chain is the last important short - board before China becomes a technological super - power. Technological progress will bring a bull market [89]. 3.2.4 Shift of Asset Allocation Directions - Overseas funds are flowing in. As the pressure on the US dollar to depreciate increases and the US stock market is at a record high with high correction pressure, overseas investors' expectations for A - shares have improved, resulting in an increase in the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales [92]. - Residents are shifting from real estate to the stock market. The demand for "speculating in real estate" temporarily does not exist. The real estate is still in the bottom - building process, and the ratio of the stock market's total market value to residents' deposits is still at a low level, with great room for improvement [101][103]. 3.3 Index Valuation - The overall index position is not high, but the valuation is relatively high. This is mainly because the current macro - economy is still in the bottom - building process, corporate profits are poor, and the valuation is passively pushed up [124]. 3.4 Index Seasonality - Index differentiation is obvious. There is an obvious adjustment in October. From November to December, the index continues to fluctuate upward with the center of gravity moving up. Sometimes, in December, fund position - adjustment may cause the index to fall. At the end of the year, the style may change, and the Shanghai Composite 50 will be stronger than the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures. The long - term trend remains unchanged, and there is still hope for an upward movement around the Spring Festival [135].

Report Overview - The report is the Shan Jin Futures' daily report on the black sector, covering steel products like rebar and hot-rolled coil, as well as iron ore, with updates as of October 27, 2025 [1][2][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For rebar and hot-rolled coil, the apparent demand for rebar has continued to rise but remains weaker than the same period last year, production has increased, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory is much higher than the same period. With strong coking coal and coke prices supporting costs, but falling steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production, leading to a potential negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices may have ended their downward trend. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly and take profits when prices fall [2]. - For iron ore, although the sample steel mills' molten iron production remains high, supporting demand, falling steel mill profits may lead to production cuts, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are high, and rising port inventories during the peak consumption season are pressuring futures prices. Technically, the 01 contract has a slight rebound, facing resistance from the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages. It is recommended to hold short positions and beware of the impact of a rebound in rebar prices [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar's apparent demand is rising but weaker than last year, production is up, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coil inventory is much higher than the same period. Coking coal and coke prices support costs, but falling steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak may lead to production cuts [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have broken through the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly and take profits when prices fall [2]. - **Data**: Futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and other data for rebar and hot - rolled coil are provided, showing changes in prices, production, and inventory levels [3] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: High molten iron production supports demand, but falling steel mill profits may lead to production cuts, suppressing prices. Global shipments are high, and rising port inventories during the peak consumption season are pressuring prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract has a slight rebound, facing resistance from the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions and beware of the impact of a rebound in rebar prices [5]. - **Data**: Futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, shipping volumes, freight rates, inventory, and other data for iron ore are provided, showing changes in prices, supply, and inventory levels [5] 3.3 Industry News - In mid - October, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, pig iron decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, and steel products increased by 0.8% month - on - month [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", with strict regulations on capacity replacement ratios and regional transfers [7]. - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices [7]. - The total urban inventory this week is 949.87 million tons, a 1.34% decrease from last week [8]. - Shanxi is increasing coal production and supply, with a 3.7% year - on - year increase in the output of above - scale raw coal in the first three quarters, accounting for about 27.3% of the national output [8]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Views - For the steel sector, although the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded this week, it remains weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the decline in total inventory is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is now much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the high iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the apparent demand for rebar continues to rebound but is weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the total inventory decline is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held lightly, and profits should be taken in a timely manner when the price drops [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day and 0.72% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 207.07 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.94%. Hot-rolled coil production is 322.46 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 0.19% [3]. - **Inventory**: The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,099.7 million tons, a decrease of 26.14 million tons from last week, a decline of 2.32%. Rebar social inventory is 437.48 million tons, a decrease of 18.93 million tons from last week, a decline of 4.15%. Hot-rolled coil social inventory is 337.57 million tons, a decrease of 3.77 million tons from last week, a decline of 1.10% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 892.73 million tons, an increase of 17.32 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.98%. Rebar apparent demand is 226.01 million tons, an increase of 6.26 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.85% [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: High iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be continued to be held [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 777 yuan/dry ton, up 0.39% from the previous day and 0.45% from last week [5]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,729.5 million tons, an increase of 65.3 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 3.92%. Brazilian iron ore shipments are 749 million tons, an increase of 22.1 million tons from last week [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 14,278.27 million tons, an increase of 253.77 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.81%. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,291.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from last week, a decline of 0.03% [5]. III. Industry News - **Coal**: Mongolian coal imports have decreased significantly due to political struggles in Mongolia. On Wednesday, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 570, a decrease of 43.95% compared to the average daily number in October, and it is expected to gradually recover next week [6]. - **Cement**: In the fourth quarter, the intensity of staggered production in the cement industry has increased, and the monthly average kiln shutdown in some areas exceeds 20 days. Recently, cement prices in many places have shown an upward trend [6]. - **Steel Inventory**: In mid-October, the social inventory of steel products in 21 cities was 9.36 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.1%. The inventory fluctuated slightly [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - **Rebar**: As of the week of October 23, rebar production increased from a decline, and the factory and social inventories decreased for two consecutive weeks, while the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks [7]. - **Iron Ore Production**: In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore output of Fortescue Metals Group was 50.8 million tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous quarter and an increase of 6% from the same period last year [8]. - **Global Steel Production**: In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 141.8 million tons. China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [8]. - **Glass Inventory**: As of October 23, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% from the previous period, an increase for three consecutive weeks after the festival, reaching a three-month high [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management should be done well, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be implemented. [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Gold Core Logic - Short - term risk aversion: Sino - US may meet, easing trade war risks; US economic stagflation risks increase, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. - Risk - aversion attributes: Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin, complaining that negotiations were at a deadlock; European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations; Trump said a 100% tariff on China was unsustainable. - Monetary attributes: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months; Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth might have turned negative in the past few months; the Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity had hardly changed recently, but there were signs of cooling consumption; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - Commodity attributes: The CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4116.60 per ounce, down $21.90 (- 0.53%) from the previous day and $108.30 (- 2.56%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $4070.00 per ounce, down $99.60 (- 2.39%) from the previous day and $134.60 (- 3.20%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 10.28 yuan (- 1.08%) from the previous day and 24.14 yuan (- 2.50%) from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 8.70 yuan (- 0.92%) from the previous day and 27.15 yuan (- 2.81%) from the previous week. - Other data: The gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.22, up 2.32 (2.79%) from the previous day and 5.26 (6.58%) from the previous week; the gold - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.22, down 0.13 (- 1.57%) from the previous day and 0.27 (- 3.21%) from the previous week; the gold - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 69.33, down 2.55 (- 3.54%) from the previous day and 3.14 (- 4.34%) from the previous week. [2] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Gold - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 69,265.00, an increase of 1,459.00 (19.21%); the top 10 totaled 99,490.00, an increase of 369.00 (27.60%); the top 20 totaled 121,427.00, a decrease of 2,459.00 (33.68%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,561.00, a decrease of 343.00 (3.48%); the top 10 totaled 16,710.00, a decrease of 773.00 (4.63%); the top 20 totaled 17,961.00, a decrease of 815.00 (4.98%). [3] Silver Core Logic The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. [5] Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.18 per ounce, up $0.02 (0.04%) from the previous day and down $4.35 (- 8.27%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $47.76 per ounce, down $2.19 (- 4.37%) from the previous day and $4.83 (- 9.18%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 11,467.00 yuan per kilogram, up 63.00 yuan (0.55%) from the previous day and down 550.00 yuan (- 4.58%) from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 11,463.00 yuan per kilogram, up 82.00 yuan (0.72%) from the previous day and down 518.00 yuan (- 4.32%) from the previous week. - Other data: The visible inventory totaled 42,134 tons, down 87 tons (- 0.21%) from the previous day and 670 tons (- 1.56%) from the previous week. [6] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Silver - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 105,851.00, an increase of 7,921.00 (14.02%); the top 10 totaled 137,439.00, an increase of 8,513.00 (18.21%); the top 20 totaled 168,854.00, an increase of 5,725.00 (22.37%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 35,243.00, an increase of 655.00 (4.67%); the top 10 totaled 53,998.00, an increase of 2,396.00 (7.15%); the top 20 totaled 72,007.00, an increase of 4,059.00 (9.54%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Federal Reserve Data - The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.15%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up $55.81 billion (0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.77%, down 0.06 from the previous value. [8] Other Key Data - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.25, down 0.06 (- 2.60%) from the previous day and 0.09 (- 3.85%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.88, down 0.06 (- 0.06%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.51, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.01 (- 1.85%) from the previous week. [8] Inflation and Economic Data - US inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.91. - US economic growth data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00, down 0.30 from the previous value; GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80, up 4.40 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10 from the previous value. [10] Other Data - Central bank gold reserves: China's is 2,303.52 tons, up 3.11 tons (0.14%); the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. - Geopolitical risk index is 250.95, up 96.88 (62.88%) from the previous value; VIX index is 18.47, down 0.13 (- 0.70%) from the previous day and 6.84 (- 27.02%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index is 297.93, up 2.52 (0.85%) from the previous day and 4.08 (1.39%) from the previous week; the offshore RMB is 7.1270, up 0.0002 (0.00%) from the previous value. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from October 2025 to September 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]