投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年04月23日08时09分 | | | 原油 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 单位 4月22日 | | 数据类别 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc | 元/桶 494.00 4.80 0.98% 17.20 3.61% | 原油期货 | | | | | | | | WTI | 美元/桶 63.54 0.16 0.25% 2.01 3.27% | | | | | | | | | Brent | 美元/桶 67.82 1.35 2.03% 2.97 4.58% | | | | | | | | | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 5.00 0.49 10.82% 0.40 8.61% | 内外价差 | | | | | | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 0.72 -0.70 -49.34% -0.56 -43.88% | | | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年04月22日16时37分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅上行金强银弱，沪金主力收涨4.13%，沪银主力收跌0.23%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，"去 美元化"加速；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美债真实收益率预期下行。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，中美仍存升级可能， VIX低位上行。特朗普对鲍威尔的攻击可能威胁到美联储的独立性。贸易战推动各国央行减持美债，增持黄金；③货币属性方面， 特朗普警告称除非美联储降息，否则经济将放缓。美国通胀与劳动力市场仍存韧性，通胀预期大幅上行。目前市场预期美联储下次 降息至6月，预期25年总降息空间重回100基点左右。美元指数震荡下行，美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数 震荡下行，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡上行金强银弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 245% tariff on China has led to trade tensions, disturbing the market and dragging down black series commodities. It's expected that policy hedging measures will be introduced soon. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. Although the real - estate market in core cities shows signs of recovery, low - tier cities are still in the bottom - building process. For both steel products and iron ore, the futures prices are short - term uncertain, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Impact Factors**: The US tariff on China and trade tensions have negatively affected the downstream consumption and exports of steel products. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. The real - estate market in core cities may be stabilizing, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out [2] - **Market Conditions**: Last week, the production of threaded rods decreased, factory and social inventories declined, and the total inventory continued to fall. The apparent demand increased month - on - month. Technically, the futures price rebounded after breaking the previous low, with short - term uncertainty [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3181 yuan/ton, down 1.88% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production was 229.22 million tons, down 1.36% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 314.4 million tons, up 0.35% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: The five - variety social inventory was 1124.83 million tons, down 4.41% from last week; the threaded rod social inventory was 532.76 million tons, down 5.39% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Impact Factors**: Global trade tensions are disturbing the market. The downstream demand has entered a peak period in April, which may support the futures price. The real - estate market in individual hot cities is picking up, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out. The global shipment is at a relatively high level, and the national port inventory has rebounded [3] - **Market Conditions**: The iron water production of 247 steel mills reached 240.21 million tons last week, close to last year's peak, and it's expected to have peaked. Technically, the futures price fell sharply after breaking the previous low and then stabilized and rebounded, with a high probability of oscillating downward in the future [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 699 yuan/dry ton, down 1.27% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 97.5 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.87% from last week [3] - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1568.1 million tons, up 0.03% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 630.1 million tons, down 4.21% from last week [3] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 14056.00 million tons, down 285.02 million tons from last week; the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume was 309.51 million tons, down 8.54 million tons from last week [3] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 285.02 million tons, and the daily average ore handling volume decreased by 8.54 million tons. In the first quarter, the steel industry was generally stable, with the output of construction steel bars decreasing by 2.9% year - on - year and the crude steel output increasing slightly by 0.6% year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.28 percentage points week - on - week, the profitability rate increased by 1.30 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron water output decreased by 0.10 million tons week - on - week [7]

www.shanjinqh.com 2025 年 4 月 18 日星期五 作者：林振龙 资 咨 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0018476 审核：曹有明 Z0013162 电话：021–2062 7529 linzhenlong@sd-gold.com 期货 从业 资格证 号： F03107583 山金期货官微： 投 贸易战避险阶段兑现 贵金属或重回高位震荡？ 报告导读 一、避险属性 询 部 1、近期贸易战、地缘异动等再次发酵，避险需求阶段兑现。特朗普表示， 将与中国达成一项非常好的贸易协议；中美出现缓和迹象，长期仍存升级可能； 投资 咨询资 格证号： 2、美国债务规模突破 36 万亿美元，财政恶化加剧市场对美元信用体系质 疑。 复核：刘书语 二、货币属性 黄 金 白 银 1、近期美国经济出现更多转弱信号，就业与通胀仍有韧性，美国 4 月消 费者信心降至近三年来最低；一年通胀预期升至 6.7%，飙升至 1981 年以来最 高，经济衰退风险大幅上行； 邮箱： 2、鲍威尔称政策调整需等更多数据，否认"美联储托底"可能性。目前 市场预期美联储下次降息至 6 月，预期 25 年总降息空间涨至 100 基点左右。 三、商 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月18日08时17分 报告导读： 美对中国加征 245%的关税， 贸易紧张局势扰动市场，全球资本市场剧烈波动，拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁 最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热 度快速回升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出口均将构 成一定的负面冲击，预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。从技术上看，期价跌破了前期的点后有所反弹，短线面临一定的不确定性。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3092 | -1 | -0.03% | -47 | -1.50% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3191 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年04月18日08时16分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 4月17日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | 百分比 | | | 原油期货 | Sc | 元/桶 | 482.70 | 15.50 | | 3.32% | 4.30 | 0.90% | | | WTI | 美元/桶 | 64.45 | 1.85 | | 2.96% | 4.22 | 7.01% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 67.85 | 1.79 | | 2.71% | 4.45 | 7.02% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 2.51 | 0.34 | | 15.83% | -3.62 | -59.01% | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | -0.89 | 0.40 | | -31.25% | -3.85 | -129.98% ...

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年04月17日16时27分 一、黄金 报告导读： 投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属震荡收涨，沪金主力收涨2.18%，沪银主力收跌0.23%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，"去美元化" 加速；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美债真实收益率预期下行。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，中美仍存升级可能。VIX低位 上行。贸易战推动各国央行减持美债，增持黄金；③货币属性方面，鲍威尔称政策调整需等更多数据，否认"美联储托底"可能性 。美联储理事沃勒最新表示，关税或导致美联储在通胀较高情况下降息以避免经济衰退。美国通胀与劳动力市场仍存韧性。目前市 场预期美联储下次降息至6月，预期25年总降息空间重回75基点左右。美元指数跌至10年年线附近下行趋缓，美债收益率震荡偏 弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡下行，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯 上行。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | - ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年04月16日16时52分 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡收涨，沪金主力收涨2.68%，沪银主力收涨1.50%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，"去美元化" 加速；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美债真实收益率预期下行。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，中美短期出现希望谈判声音， 后期仍存升级可能。VIX低位上行。贸易战推动各国央行减持美债，增持黄金；③货币属性方面，美国3月进口物价意外下降，但 关税恐很快开始刺激通胀。美联储理事沃勒最新表示，关税或导致美联储在通胀较高情况下降息以避免经济衰退。美国通胀与劳动 力市场仍存韧性。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至6月，预期25年总降息空间重回100基点左右。美元指数跌至10年年线附近下行 趋缓，美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡下行，人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强， 中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade tensions have disrupted the market, causing significant fluctuations in global capital markets and dragging down black - series commodities. The downstream demand in April has reached its peak, with limited room for further growth and a possible decline. [2][3] - In the real estate sector, the land auction market in core cities has heated up rapidly, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. However, the real estate markets in lower - tier cities are still in the process of bottoming out. [2][3] - The trade war will have a negative impact on the downstream consumption and exports of steel plates. Policy - based hedging measures are expected to be introduced soon. [2] - For both steel and iron ore, the futures prices are expected to have a higher probability of oscillating downward in the future. [2][3] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Basis**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils have shown different changes compared to the previous day and week. The basis and spreads of various contracts also have corresponding fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3125 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous day and up 0.77% from the previous week. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of threaded steel has increased, while the production of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The total inventory of five major steel products has continued to decline, with social inventory decreasing and factory inventory increasing for some products. For instance, the national building materials steel mill's threaded steel production is 232.37 tons, up 1.63% from the previous week, and the hot - rolled coil production is 313.3 tons, down 2.91% from the previous week. [2] - **Market Transactions**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume has decreased compared to the previous day but increased compared to the previous week. The terminal procurement volume of wire rods and screws in Shanghai has increased. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have changed. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show different trends. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 713 yuan/dry ton, up 0.99% from the previous day and 2.89% from the previous week. [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level, and the port inventory in China has rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, and the iron - making water production has shown a resumption trend, but the room for further increase is limited. [3][4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly. [4] 3.3 Industry News - On April 15, the mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market raised the purchase price of coke by 50 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 55 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke. The coke price in the Ordos market also increased by 50/55 yuan/ton. [5] - In early April 2025, the key steel enterprises produced 2197 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 219.7 million tons, a 3.4% increase in daily output compared to the previous period. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products has different changes. [5] - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 Chinese ports is 14637.45 million tons, a decrease of 267.94 million tons compared to the previous Monday. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade tensions are disturbing the market, causing significant fluctuations in global capital markets and dragging down black - series commodities. The downstream demand has reached its peak in April, with limited room for further increase and a possible decline. There may be policy - based hedging measures due to the negative impact of the trade war on plate consumption and exports [2]. - In the real estate sector, the land auction market in core cities is heating up, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery, but the real - estate market in lower - tier cities is still at the bottoming stage [2][3]. - For iron ore, the global trade tensions are a major concern. Although downstream demand in April may support prices, the supply is at a relatively high level, and the iron - water production increase is expected to be limited. The future price is likely to fluctuate downward [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: Trade tensions and the peak - stage downstream demand affect the market. The production of threaded steel increased last week, the factory inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand increased but at a slower pace. The trade war has a negative impact on plate consumption and exports [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rebounded after breaking through the previous low, with short - term uncertainty [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from last week. The spot prices of both showed some changes, with the threaded - steel spot price up 0.32% from the previous day and the hot - rolled coil up 0.31% [2]. - **Base and Spread**: The main - contract base of threaded steel was 44 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil was 18 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from last week. Various spreads also had different changes [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of threaded steel increased by 1.63% week - on - week, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.91%. The social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.19%, and the factory inventory increased by 1.95% [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Global trade tensions are the focus. Downstream demand in April may support prices, but the supply is at a high level, and the iron - water production increase is limited [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price dropped significantly after breaking through the previous low and then stabilized and rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate downward in the future [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 706 yuan/dry ton, down 7.41% from last week. The prices of various iron - ore powders in ports also had different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread**: The base and various spreads of iron - ore futures showed different trends, such as the DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread being 26.5 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan from last week [4]. - **Supply - related Data**: Australian iron - ore shipments increased slightly, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 4.21%. The port inventory decreased by 0.88% [4]. 3.3. Industry News - From April 7 - 13, 2025, the total iron - ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2617.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 258.8 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2525.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 336.8 million tons [5]. - On April 14, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai raised the prices of wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke, effective from April 15 [5]. - In March 2025, China imported 9397.4 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, with a total of 28531.2 million tons from January - March. The exports of steel products in March were 1045.6 million tons, with a total of 2742.9 million tons from January - March [6]. - As of the week ending April 11, the total manganese - ore inventory in ports increased by 4 million tons [6]. - In April, the new - order quotation of glass increased by about 0.5 yuan/square meter, but due to the decline in component prices, the negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is deadlocked, and the transaction center is expected to decline [6].