投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： 上期所会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | 净多元 | | | | 学卒成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员间挤 | 净空車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | | i | 前5名台计 | 86,094.00 | 8,317.00 | 18.82 | -- 前5名台计 | 21,783.00 | 1,280.00 | 4.76 | | -- | 前10名合计 | 116.513.00 | 7.206.00 | 25.46 | -- 前10名合计 | 30,273.00 | 1.714.00 | 6.62 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 135,888.00 | 8,499.00 | 29.70 | -- 前20名合计 | 34,993.00 | 2,505.00 | 7.65 | | | 1 中财期货 | 27.60 ...

投资咨询系列报告 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第1页，共2页 1、欧盟委员会贸易委员东布罗夫斯基斯表示，欧盟本周将向七国集团（G7）财长提议，降低目前对俄罗斯海运石油每桶60美元的价格上限，作为对莫斯科实施新制裁的一部 分。东布罗夫斯基斯称："这是欧盟委员会在第18轮制裁中指出的问题。我预计G7其他伙伴国也会对此感兴趣，并进行讨论。"当被问及他是否会在本周于加拿大举行的七国集 团（G7）财长会议上提出这一提议时，他表示："会。"东布罗夫斯基斯没有提及欧盟希望将价格上限降低到什么程度，但了解讨论情况的欧盟官员表示，欧盟将提议将价格上 限降至每桶50美元。 投资咨询系列报告 2、克里姆林宫助手：会谈中没有谈到俄罗斯和乌克兰可能达成停火协议的时间框架。特朗普和普京同意继续就所有问题进行对话，并有意在未来达成会面安排。普京与特朗普 会晤的地点尚未确定。 山金期货原油日报 3、乌克兰总统泽连斯基19日晚在结束与美国总统特朗普通话后表示，乌方愿与俄方"以任何能产生结果的形式"进行直接谈判，但不会在领土问题上妥协，不会从其领土撤军。 泽连斯基19日深夜在社交媒体发文说，当天他与特朗普进行了两次通话，其中一次是在特朗普与俄罗斯总 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The outcome of the China - US trade negotiations far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The poor credit data in April confirmed the necessity of significant measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy - side positives have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while the low - tier city real estate market is still in the bottom - building process. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectations may not have changed substantially [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billets have good profits with high export growth. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but if a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. Short - term price rebounds are mainly boosted by the optimistic progress of trade negotiations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The market has rebounded from the low level. The production has increased, factory inventories have declined, social inventories have continued to fall, total inventories have decreased, and apparent demand has recovered. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that the industry needs to reduce production [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, there has been a significant rebound, and the downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. After the negative factors are fully priced in and sufficient adjustments are made, consider going long at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to prevent significant adjustments after the short - term positives are realized [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded rod and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have shown certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3082 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (-1.15%) from the previous day and up 60 yuan (1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The output of threaded rods has increased by 1.34% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 2.62% week - on - week. The social and factory inventories of both have declined [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but future production restriction policies may suppress iron ore demand. The supply side is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and high trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to the long - term trend line and rebounded in the short - term, indicating that the medium - term downward trend may end and enter an oscillation or rebound phase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly judge based on technical trends. Hold short positions lightly and exit in time when the price is low in the future [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 728 yuan/dry ton, up 32 yuan (4.60%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 0.19% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 16.42% week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 0.51% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 72.62 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 8.68 tons. The total inventory in 47 ports decreased by 17.72 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 11.08 tons [6]. - Mysteel research shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 0.87 tons week - on - week [6]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Shandong market also lowered the coke purchase price by 55 yuan/ton [7]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data shows that the total urban inventory this week is 772.11 tons, a decrease of 41.98 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of construction steel decreased by 26.88 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 12.82 tons [7].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年05月16日08时21分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 中美贸易谈判结果远超市场预期，极大的提振了市场信心，螺纹从低位反弹。 4 月的信贷数据较差，印证降准降息等重磅举措的必要性 ，政策面利 多基本兑现。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。本周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所上升，厂库回落， 社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求回升。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限，但生产端认为今年大概率会有限产政策出台 。整体来看，目前市场逐 渐由强现实向弱现实转变，短线受中美大幅互减关税影响而得到提振 ，但弱预期可能还没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，短线大幅反弹，下行 趋势进入低位震荡。 操作建议： 观望。耐心等待利空因素计价完毕之后，充分调整后可尝试逢低做多，谨慎追涨，以防短线利多兑现后出现大幅调整 ； 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3118 -9 -0.29% 66 2.16% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3260 -7 -0.21% 69 2.16 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月15日16时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅回落，沪金主力收跌3.20%，沪银主力收跌2.34%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，贸易协议分批 达成；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，美国和中国宣布达成降低关 税的临时协议，避险情绪降温。特朗普会见叙利亚总统，敦促与以色列建立关系，地缘异动短期缓和。③货币属性方面，美国4月 消费者物价温和上涨，创四年来最小年涨幅。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，预计关税将导致经济放缓，通胀前景不明朗。目前市场预 期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数反弹遇阻，美债收益率震荡上行；④商品属性方面， CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金强银弱，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年05月15日08时19分 报告导读： 中美贸易谈判结果远超市场预期，极大的提振了市场信心，螺纹从低位反弹。 4 月的信贷数据较差，印证降准降息等重磅举措的必要性 ，政策面利 多基本兑现。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。上周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库大量增 加，社库继续回落，总库存回升，表观需求大幅下降。库存的回升和表观需求的下降打压多头情绪 。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限，但生产端认为 今年大概率会有限产政策出台。整体来看，市场由强现实向弱现实转变，短线受中美大幅互减关税影响而得到提振 ，但弱预期可能还没有发生实质 性的改变。从技术上看，短线大幅反弹，下行趋势进入低位震荡。 操作建议： 观望。耐心等待利空因素计价完毕之后，充分调整后可尝试逢低做多，谨慎追涨，以防短线利多兑现； | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 较上日 较上周 | 单位 | 5月14日 | | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | 原油期货 | Sc | 元/桶 | 479.30 | 8.80 | 1.87% | 11.10 | 2.37% | | | WTI | 美元/桶 | 62.89 | -0.74 | -1.16% | 4.94 | 8.52% | | | Brent | 美元/桶 | 65.85 | -0.75 | -1.13% | 4.90 | 8.04% | | 内外价差 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.72 | 1.99 | 115.61% | -3.35 | -47.41% | | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 0.76 | 2.00 | -161.08% | -3.31 | -81.34% | | | Brent-WTI Sc_C1-C2 | 美元/桶 元/桶 | 2.96 7.30 | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月14日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌0.11%，沪银主力收涨0.16%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，贸易协议分批 达成；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，美国和中国宣布达成降低关 税的临时协议，避险情绪逐渐升温。巴基斯坦与印度发生交火，特朗普考虑亲自现身土耳其俄乌会谈，地缘异动变数仍在。③货币 属性方面，美国4月消费者物价温和上涨，创四年来最小年涨幅，因食品成本的下降部分抵消了租金的上涨，但在关税背景下，通 胀前景仍不明朗。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡上行； ④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期继续金弱银强，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯 上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has been significantly boosted by the better - than - expected results of the China - US trade negotiation, causing the rebar to rebound from its low level. However, the increase in inventory and the decline in apparent demand have dampened bullish sentiment. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectation remains unchanged. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider buying at low prices after full adjustment [2]. - Currently, the profitability of steel mills is decent, and the molten iron is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly rely on technical analysis, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1 Market Background - The results of the China - US trade negotiation have far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The production has decreased, factory inventory has increased significantly, social inventory has continued to decline, total inventory has increased, and apparent demand has dropped sharply. Policy - side benefits have basically materialized, and the real - estate market in core cities has stabilized while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The rumor of production restriction has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that a production restriction policy is likely to be introduced this year [2]. 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - In the short term, there has been a significant rebound, and after a downward trend, it has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. 3.1.3 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. After the negative factors are fully priced in and full adjustment, consider buying at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to avoid short - term profit - taking [2]. 3.1.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract is 3079 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and up 0.06% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3215 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.59% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [2]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The rebar main base is 141 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 8 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil main base is 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day and up 1 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different futures spreads [2]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 223.53 tons, down 4.22% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 320.38 tons, up 2.79% from last week. The inventory of five major varieties of social inventory, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, and five major varieties of factory inventory shows different trends of increase and decrease [2]. - **Market Transaction Data**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 18.65 tons, down 17.68% from the previous day and up 66.31% from last week; the line - screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai is 13200 tons, down 9.59% from last week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of registered rebar warehouse receipts is 148997 tons, down 19706 tons from the previous day and 42344 tons from last week; the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 281489 tons, down 9957 tons from the previous day and 42000 tons from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Background - The profitability of steel mills is good, and the molten iron production is in a recovery trend. However, the apparent demand for steel has declined significantly, and it is expected that the molten iron production has likely peaked. If a production restriction policy is introduced, it will suppress the demand for iron ore. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level and rising seasonally, and the current slowdown in port inventory decline and high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices [4]. 3.2.2 Technical Analysis - The futures price has broken through the recent oscillation range, the open interest has continued to increase, and the price has dropped to near the long - term trend line [4]. 3.2.3 Operation Suggestion - Judge mainly based on technical trends, hold short positions lightly, and exit at low prices in a timely manner [4]. 3.2.4 Data Overview - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 714.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.56% from the previous day and up 1.42% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 99.51 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.49% from the previous day and up 3.95% from last week. Other related spot and futures prices also show different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread Data**: The base between McFadden powder (Qingdao Port) and the DCE iron ore main contract is 30.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 3 yuan from last week; the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread is 31.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day and 6 yuan from last week. There are also various changes in different spreads [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment is 1601.8 tons, up 0.19% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 548.1 tons, down 16.42% from last week. The port inventory is 14238.71 tons, down 0.45% from last week [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, unchanged from the previous day and last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - According to Mysteel, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on May 16, 2025 [6]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 850 tons, a decrease of 35 tons (4.0%) from the previous period. The inventory decline rate has slightly narrowed, an increase of 191 tons (29.0%) from the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 305 tons (26.4%) from the same period last year [6]. - According to Mysteel, an alloy factory in Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia, has recently reduced production of two 33000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces, expected to affect the daily output by about 400 tons; a large ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise in Chongqing has shut down two submerged arc furnaces since 12:00 on May 12, 2025, and the resumption time is to be determined, affecting the daily output by 400 tons [6]. - According to Brazilian customs data, in April 2025, the total export volume of Brazilian manganese ore was 66600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.99% and a year - on - year increase of 23.68%. Among them, the export volume of manganese ore to China was 63800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2418.44% and a year - on - year increase of 245.28% [6].

铁矿石需警惕利空因素与价格 下跌趋势形成自我强化 作者：曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 邮箱：caoyouming@sd-gold.com 2025年5月12日星期一 ——山金期货铁矿石专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 p 铁矿石期货价格已经跌至长期上行趋势线附近，如果期价继续下跌，很有可能形成向下的有效突破，将打 开下行空间。最近几个月价格下跌的过程中，持仓量不断增加。整体形势对多头很不利。 p 供应：随着南半球天气的好转，巴西和澳洲发运量已经回到正常的水平，且未来一段时间，发运量将继续 呈现季节性增加态势，国内到港量也将延续季节性增加的趋势，国内矿山的产量和库存在增加。 p 需求：目前样本钢厂铁水产量已经大幅高于去年同期，且高于去年的峰值水平。在整体需求预期偏弱的情 况下，如此高的铁水产量很难持续，预计今年铁水产量的峰值已经到来，后期下降的预期强烈，这意味着 今年铁矿石的需求高峰期已至，后市铁矿石需求回落概率大。另外，终端需求方面，上周钢材表观需求大 幅回落，今年的出口数据好于预期，但整体增幅在贸易战背景 ...