1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.35% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.92%. The short - term investment strategy for both gold and silver suggests that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][6]. - The short - term core logic for gold includes increased trade - war concerns, ongoing worries about the Fed's independence, rising risks of U.S. economic stagflation, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Trump's new tariffs from the national to the industry level have broken the relatively calm trade situation, and there are still geopolitical disturbances in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more cuts this year. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price increased by 0.25% compared to the previous day and 1.89% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions increased by 3.76% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai gold主力 positions decreased by 0.87% compared to the previous day but increased by 10.05% compared to the previous week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous week [2]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 183,220, an increase of 3,550 (41.27% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 23,066, a decrease of 251 (5.20% daily increase) [3]. Silver - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) have all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price increased by 3.07% compared to the previous day and 8.00% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: CFTC silver net longs and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. The recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. For example, the total visible inventory decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous week [5][6]. - **Futures Company Member Net Position Ranking**: The top 20 long - position members' net long positions totaled 188,609, a decrease of 18,061 (22.28% daily increase). The top 20 short - position members' net short positions totaled 95,783, a decrease of 1,179 (11.31% daily increase) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield increased by 0.83% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI increased by 0.20% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.10% year - on - year. The PCE price index increased by 0.14% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.05% year - on - year [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP decreased by 0.30% year - on - year in annualized terms but increased by 4.40% quarter - on - quarter in annualized terms. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10% [10]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, VIX index increased by 3.14% compared to the previous day, CRB commodity index increased by 0.55% compared to the previous day, and the offshore RMB increased by 0.39% compared to the previous day [11]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October 2025 is 89.3%, and the probability changes over different meeting dates in the future [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, in the short - term, gold is weak while silver is strong, and in the long - term, they are expected to rise step - by - step. The reasons include short - term hedging factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence and increased stagflation risks in the US economy; geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East; the Fed's interest rate cuts and market expectations of further cuts; and the impact of the CRB commodity index and RMB exchange rate on the price [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.01%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 2.27% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term hedging: Trade agreements are reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence resurface; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are being fulfilled. Hedging attribute: Geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The attempt by Trump to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for over - stepping his authority to remove her have raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Monetary attribute: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. Market expectations are that the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October remains around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold showed different changes; domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D increased; various bases, spreads, and ratios also changed; positions in Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold also changed [2]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Funds and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver increased; domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D also rose; bases and spreads changed; positions in Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai silver, and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange changed, and the total explicit inventory increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. Various bond spreads, inflation indicators, and economic growth indicators showed different changes [8][10]. - **Risk Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 16.79%, and the VIX index increased by 6.62% [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 1.46% [11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in different periods from 2025 to 2027 are presented in the table [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The increase in apparent demand is mainly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream, and may not represent a trend. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to maintain a shock pattern [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, with an overall under - expected effect and a negative impact on raw materials. The supply is at a high level, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the demand for iron ore. The upward trend of the 01 contract needs further observation [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Supply and Demand**: The output of rebar increased from a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The total output of the five major varieties increased by 9.5 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory increased by 3.0 tons, the social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 9.1 tons. The apparent demand increased by 23.73 tons [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above. Currently, the prices are near the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the opening of the Bollinger Band is narrowing, with a high probability of maintaining a shock [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Aggressive investors can try to go long at low prices with a light position [3]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of sample steel mills has adjusted. The iron ore output of 247 steel mills was 2.41 million tons last week, an increase of 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the demand [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Wait patiently for a full adjustment and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [6]. **III. Industry News** - Some coke enterprises in Changzhi and Xingtai plan to adjust coke prices, with increases ranging from 50 - 85 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on September 26 [8]. - As of the week of September 25, the output of rebar increased from a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks [8]. - As of September 25, the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry remained unchanged from the previous two weeks, with a daily output of 160,200 tons. The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.55% week - on - week, reaching a new low since the end of January [8]. - The EU Commission plans to impose additional tariffs of 25% - 50% on Chinese steel and related products in the next few weeks [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion factors include the phased achievement of trade agreements, concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, weakening employment, and moderate inflation, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations starting to materialize [2]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist, and Trump's attempt to fire Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year [2]. - The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. There has been a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the visible inventory of silver recently [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.83% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day; London gold at $3663.15 per ounce, up 0.53%; Shanghai gold main contract at 860 yuan per gram, up 0.53%; gold T + D at 856.27 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [3]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions increased by 4.73% from the previous week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 186.19%; Shanghai gold registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.38% [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,314, a decrease of 3,744; the top 10 totaled 150,089, a decrease of 2,445 [4]. 3.2 Silver - **Market Influencing Factors**: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in visible inventory [6]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver main contract closed at $44.27 per ounce, down 0.11% from the previous day; London silver at $44.33 per ounce, up 1.35%; Shanghai silver main contract at 10,397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.46%; silver T + D at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72% [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions increased by 3.99% from the previous week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 32.90%; visible inventory decreased by 0.13% [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 112,866, an increase of 11,247; the top 10 totaled 166,336, an increase of 10,752 [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $66,593.66 billion, up 0.00% [9]. - **Economic Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 3.02% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 97.23, down 0.10% from the previous day [9]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.20 from the previous value; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10% [11]. - **Other Data**: Geopolitical risk index is 128.06, up 1.97% from the previous week; VIX index is 16.50, down 0.84% from the previous day; CRB commodity index is 299.88, up 0.72% from the previous day [12]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different times in the future is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate adjustments [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a suppressive effect on raw materials and supports steel prices, but it is less than the previous "anti - involution" hype expectations. The overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. However, the downstream restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support spot prices [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials. The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, which has different impacts on raw materials and steel prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of rebar decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand rebounded, and the total inventory decreased. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating obvious resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and go long after the futures stabilize [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The "anti - involution" policy has been implemented, which is less than expected and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of sample steel mills has回调 last week due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore shipment is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption season. The restocking demand of steel mills before the holiday supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated and fell back. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for a full adjustment, and go long after other varieties stabilize. Be cautious about chasing up [4]. 3.3. Industry News - Indonesia has suspended 190 coal and mining licenses because they failed to fulfill the obligation to repair damaged mine land or comply with production quotas [6]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average daily customs clearance of the three major Mongolian coal ports has changed. The total average daily customs clearance in September is 2258 vehicles, equivalent to an import volume of about 31.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. It is estimated that the 7 - day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 double - festival holiday will affect the Mongolian coal import volume by about 187.56 tons [6]. - On September 23, a large steel mill in Tangshan tendered for Mongolian 5 coking coal, with a winning bid price of 1400 yuan/ton to the factory, and all 7000 tons of the tender quantity were sold. The transaction price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on September 11 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has an overall suppressive effect on raw material varieties and supports steel prices, but it falls short of previous expectations [2]. - The anti - involution policy for iron ore has been implemented, which is also below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **News**: The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was jointly issued by relevant departments, affecting the market [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Threaded steel production has declined for four consecutive weeks, with a rebound in apparent demand and a decrease in total inventory. The total production of five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. Apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, but the overall apparent demand in the peak consumption season is lower than expected, and total inventory is still increasing [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils rose and then fell, indicating significant resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions on rallies and then maintain a wait - and - see stance [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Policy Impact**: The anti - involution policy has been implemented, which is below expectations and has a negative impact on raw materials [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the profitability of sample steel mills declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decrease in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventories have not changed significantly, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the peak consumption season. Before the holiday, the replenishment demand of steel mills supports iron ore demand [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it oscillated upwards but then fell after reaching a high. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be seen [4]. - **Strategy and Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a wait - and - see stance, patiently wait for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years, with measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, and promotion of the transformation of steel enterprises [6]. - From September 15th to 21st, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the iron ore arrival volume in Chinese ports increased [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for precious metals is oscillating with an upward bias, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. This is due to short - term risk - aversion factors such as the phased achievement of trade agreements but renewed concerns about the Fed's independence, increased risk of stagflation in the US economy, and the start of the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East also support the safe - haven property of precious metals. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts within the year. The CRB commodity index faces pressure in its rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 1.78% [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D, all showed increases. For example, the Comex gold main - contract closing price was $3719.40 per ounce, up 1.12% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads of gold showed different changes. The gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.77% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold main contract, and gold TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 8.36% from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1.57% [3]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai gold market showed different changes, with the total net long position of the top 10 increasing by 31.89% compared to the previous day [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, as well as domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D, showed increases. For example, the Comex silver main - contract closing price was $43.37 per ounce, up 3.00% from the previous day [7]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of silver showed different changes. The spread between the Shanghai silver main contract and London silver decreased by 7.40% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Positions**: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver main contract, and silver TD all increased to varying degrees. For example, the position of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 0.93% from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory of silver decreased by 0.20% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The net long positions of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai silver market decreased, and the net short positions also showed different changes [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% [9]. - **Inflation and Economic Growth Data**: The year - on - year CPI increased by 0.20 percentage points, and the GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points [11]. - **Interest Rate Spread and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 3.02%, and the US - Europe interest rate spread (10 - year bond yield) increased by 1.37% [9][11]. - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index increased by 4.21%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 0.41%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.02% [12]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations**: The probability of different interest - rate ranges at different Fed meetings is provided, showing a trend of possible interest - rate cuts in the future [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 2.01% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 3.81%. The report predicts that precious metals will fluctuate upward in the short - term and step - up in the long - term [2] - Gold price trend is the anchor for silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are reached in batches, concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 interest - rate cuts are still expected within the year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure to rebound. The CRB commodity index is under pressure to rebound, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] - **Data Summary**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have shown different degrees of changes. For example, Comex gold主力合约收盘价 increased by 1.12% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 8.36% compared to the previous day [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There was a slight increase in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in the recent visible inventory of silver [6] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, etc. have changed. For example, the main Comex silver contract increased by 3.00% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main Shanghai silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 16.15% compared to the previous day [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate both decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased by 0.00% compared to the previous week [9] - **Other Key Data**: Data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys in the US, as well as data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign - exchange reserve ratios, and various risk and commodity - related indices, are presented with their corresponding changes [10][11][12] - **Fed's Interest - Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate ranges at different future meeting dates is provided [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, the overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. The expectation of the "anti - involution" policy is the current dominant factor. Before the National Day holiday, the downstream restocking demand supports the spot price [2]. - For iron ore, the "anti - involution" policy remains an important disturbing factor for the market. The supply is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has little change for now, but there is a possibility of inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: The output of rebar has decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand has rebounded, and the total inventory has turned to decline. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions can be held with a light position, and investors should leave the market in time when the price rises. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see [2]. - **Data**: Various price data such as futures and spot prices, basis and spreads, and production, inventory, and demand data are provided, including the fact that the 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.83%, the average daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, etc. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of sample steel mills decreased last week due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decline in steel prices. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has little change, but there may be an inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait patiently for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing the rise [4]. - **Data**: It includes various price data such as spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads, as well as shipment, inventory, and production data. For example, the Australian iron ore shipment is 1836.9 tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 790.6 tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Independent electric - arc - furnace construction steel mills are in a serious loss state, with an average profit of - 132 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 35 yuan/ton, and there are still actions to reduce production [7]. - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills increased, with 15 maintenance production lines and 10 restarted production lines [7]. - The total urban inventory this week is 933.75 tons, a decrease of 5.43 tons (- 0.58%) from last week [8]. - The Simandou iron ore project has entered a decisive stage, and the first - batch mining operations of Blocks 1 and 2 have officially started, with a current production capacity of 4000 tons per hour [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.64%. The short - term core logic includes: in terms of short - term hedging, trade agreements are being reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at high levels in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver decreased slightly, and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. Summary by Section Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) also rose. The basis and spreads, and various ratios showed different changes. The positions of Comex gold increased, while the positions of Shanghai gold main contract decreased. The inventories of LBMA and Shanghai gold remained stable, while the Comex gold inventory decreased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased slightly [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai gold futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [4]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [7]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) showed mixed trends, and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) increased. The basis and spreads changed. The positions of Comex silver decreased, while the positions of Shanghai silver main contract increased. The visible inventory of silver increased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the iShare silver ETF inventory increased [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai silver futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the VIX index increased, while the geopolitical risk index decreased significantly [9][12]. - **Interest Rate Spreads and Inflation**: The US - EU and US - China interest rate spreads (10 - year bond yields) increased. The CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change. The inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [11]. - **Economic Indicators**: GDP growth showed different trends in annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate increased, and non - farm payrolls decreased. The labor participation rate decreased, and average hourly wage growth slowed down. Other economic indicators in the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys also showed various changes [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The central bank gold reserves of China increased slightly, while those of the US remained stable. The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign exchange reserves increased, while the proportion of the euro decreased. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves increased globally and in China and the US [12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate range in different periods from October 2025 to October 2027 [13].