2025 年 4 月 10 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 23 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 25 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 益率处在相对低位；抛开关税影响，中国经济呈现平稳复苏态势，内需政策有发力空 间，建议保持一定的谨慎。 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.16%报 120.33 元，10 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 109.045 元，5 年 ...

重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 地址： 电话： | PTA： | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - In the context of tariff frictions, the overall driving force is weak, and cotton prices are expected to remain weak [30]. Summary by Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - In the 2024/25 season, the global supply is generally loose. The global cotton production is estimated to increase to 26.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in China's cotton production. The global cotton consumption is 25.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons, mainly due to the obvious increase in cotton consumption in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand. The global cotton ending inventory in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 20,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and increase by 910,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - The supply of US cotton is loose, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future planting area. The 2024/25 US cotton production is expected to be 3.14 million tons, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 510,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In March 2025, the estimated cotton planting area in the US is 9.867 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [5]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - China's cotton production in 2024 exceeded expectations. The single - yield reached a record high of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%. The total national production is estimated to be 6.84 million tons. It is expected that the cotton planting area in China will increase by 0.8% in 2025, but the single - yield may decline, and the production will also decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's national cotton commercial inventory was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,000 tons, and the industrial inventory was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. Both inventories are at the highest level in the same period of history [10][11]. - As of the end of February 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises was 22.32 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous month and 3.6 days year - on - year. The grey fabric inventory was 29.43 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month and an increase of 2.2 days year - on - year [15]. China's Textile and Apparel Demand - According to customs data, from January to February 2025, China's textile and apparel exports decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. The US has imposed high - tariff policies on China, and China has also counter - imposed tariffs. China's textile exports are expected to decline by about 10% [19]. - From January to February 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China increased by 3.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate is still low [22]. Cost and Profit - The current domestic spot yarn - cotton price difference is around 6,200 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. In 2024, the yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and downstream textile enterprises suffered large losses for a long time [26]. - The purchase price of seed cotton this season is 6.3 yuan/kg, and the corresponding cotton cost is around 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton, and the futures market has been at a discount [28]. Trading Logic - From the perspective of the USDA balance sheet, the world is in a stocking cycle in the 2024/25 season, which is a medium - and long - term negative factor for cotton prices. Globally, Brazilian cotton has the lowest cost, about 60 cents. In a period of oversupply, global cotton prices may approach the Brazilian planting cost. However, the expected 12% decrease in the US planting area in the new season will also affect cotton prices [29]. - Domestically, the current supply far exceeds expectations, industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, downstream yarn and grey fabric inventories are also high, and downstream profits are low. In terms of demand, the US high - tariff policy on China and China's counter - measures will have a long - term impact on cotton demand, and China's textile exports are expected to decline further [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Tariffs have a significant impact on various markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [6][9]. - Despite short - term challenges, the long - term prospects of Chinese equity assets remain positive [9]. - Gold's long - term value is still promising due to factors such as global recession risks and potential monetary policy easing [11]. - Different commodities have different short - term and long - term outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][17]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 1.79%, 0.56%, 0.34%, and 0.13% respectively. The central bank conducted 935 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan. Tariffs are significantly positive for treasury bond futures, but given the relatively low yield and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures fell across the board. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell by 10.00%, 8.20%, 10.00%, and 10.00% respectively. The central bank's move to increase holdings of ETFs is positive, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. It is expected that stock index futures will face pressure, but due to low valuations and policy hedging, short - term avoidance is considered, and opportunities to go long can be awaited [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell. China's gold reserves increased for the fifth consecutive month. After the implementation of tariffs, precious metals first rose and then fell. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long after the market stabilizes [11]. Base Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Tariffs and weak demand in the real estate industry put pressure on prices, but macro - policies and peak - season expectations may provide support. The valuation is low, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell. Although tariffs have an impact, the increase in iron ore demand and the decline in port inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell. Tariffs affect the market, but the demand for coking coal is improving, and the fundamentals of coke are also showing signs of improvement. The medium - term weakness remains, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The supply of manganese ore may be disrupted, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The high inventory puts pressure on the market. For manganese silicon, deep out - of - the - money call options can be considered, and for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [20][21]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil hit the daily limit down. Trade frictions affect the trend of crude oil. It is expected that the price will be dragged down, but it will be supported at around $60. It is advisable to wait and see [22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose first and then fell. The implementation of tariffs by the US will have a negative impact on the global shipping market and fuel oil [25][26]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber hit the daily limit down. Tariffs have a negative impact on the cost and demand. The raw material price is falling, and the processing is in a loss. It is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber hit the daily limit down. Tariffs impact the market from multiple aspects. In the short term, there is no upward drive, but there may be a technical rebound. In the long term, it depends on global trade policies and industrial chain restructuring [29]. Chemicals - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. Tariffs have little impact on PVC imports and exports. The market is expected to continue the pattern of "weak reality vs. policy expectations". Spring maintenance and export resilience provide short - term support, but high inventory and weak real - estate demand are still pressures [31]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell. The market is in a weak adjustment, with a loose supply - demand pattern. Cost support may limit the decline. It is expected to fluctuate before the start of summer fertilizer demand [34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX hit the daily limit down. The decline in PX load and the increase in PTA start - up support the market, but the collapse of the cost of crude oil has a negative impact. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak in the short term [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA hit the daily limit down. The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices may lead to a significant correction. Caution is advised [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell. High inventory and weak demand due to tariffs put pressure on the price. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber hit the daily limit down. The demand at the terminal is improving limitedly, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to follow the cost in the short term [41]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle - chip hit the daily limit down. The sharp decline in raw material prices and the lack of supply - demand drivers make it expected to follow the cost and be weak [43]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [44]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is at a low level, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariffs [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. The supply may have elasticity, but the price is difficult to be significantly supported due to inventory accumulation. It is expected to fluctuate [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of paper pulp fell. The inventory is rising, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term due to tariff news [47]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to be weak [48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, but tariffs may cause short - term over - reaction. For soybean meal, long - holders can consider taking profits, and for soybean oil, waiting and seeing is advisable [57]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil fell. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase, and the import in China has decreased. It is advisable to wait and see [59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The impact of tariffs on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The supply of rapeseed meal in the near - term may be affected more. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [61]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fell. Tariffs disrupt the global economy, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is weakening. It is advisable to consider shorting after a rebound [64]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, sugar fell. The Brazilian sugar - cane crushing progress is slow, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. In China, the supply pressure is not large. It is advisable to wait and see [67]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is positive, and the consumption is better than expected. With low inventory, the price is expected to be strong, and going long after a pull - back can be considered [70]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, the pig price was stable with minor adjustments. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. Short - term waiting and seeing is advisable, and opportunities to go short at high prices can be awaited after the short - term sentiment subsides [73]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg prices fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. After the short - term market sentiment is released, opportunities can be observed [75]. - **Corn**: On the previous trading day, corn futures rose. The supply pressure still exists in the short term, but the demand is increasing slightly. If the market sentiment drives the price up significantly, out - of - the - money put options can be considered [78]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is relatively neutral. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline if the reality is weaker than expected [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to China's counter - measures, causing significant concerns in the market. The global economy faces a greater risk of recession, and the market anticipates further monetary policy easing. Tariffs are significantly beneficial for Treasury bond futures, while stock index futures may face pressure. Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with varying trends and investment strategies [5][6][9]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 1.43%, 0.51%, 0.38%, and 0.15% respectively [5]. - **Policy Impact**: China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025. Future monetary and fiscal policies have room for adjustment, and measures will be taken to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Tariffs are favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current low Treasury bond yields and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7][8]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures declined slightly. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000股指期货主力 contracts changed by - 0.49%, 0.10%, - 0.78%, and - 1.10% respectively [9]. - **Impact Factors**: Tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, and the global recession risk increases, putting pressure on stock index futures. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and policy hedging space, there is no need to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. It is advisable to wait for short - term opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract rose by 0.74%, and the silver主力 contract fell by 1.37% [11]. - **Impact Factors**: After the tariff implementation, precious metals first rose and then fell, possibly due to passive selling caused by global financial market liquidity shocks. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is expected to continue its upward trend after the shock [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities or buy long - term call options after the market stabilizes [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. During the Ching Ming Festival, international financial market fluctuations may drag down domestic black - series products [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The real - estate industry's downward trend persists, and weak demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices. However, the peak demand season is approaching, and macro - policies may support prices. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [16][17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: High iron - water production supports iron ore demand. Although the supply has increased recently, the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series products [17]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures were weak. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The coking - coal market sentiment has improved slightly, and the coke fundamentals are showing signs of improvement. However, the medium - term weakness has not changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract fell by 0.45%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose by 0.13% [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys is slightly higher than demand. The steel demand season is coming, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. However, the high inventory and potential supply disturbances in manganese ore need attention [22][23]. - **Strategy**: In the low - price range, consider long - position opportunities for deep - out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon. For silicon iron, short - position holders can consider exiting at the bottom range [23]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell due to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs [24]. - **Market Data**: Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + will increase oil supply in May [25]. - **Outlook**: The crude oil price depends on the development of trade frictions. It is expected that the price will be supported at around $60, and OPEC may take measures to support the price [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the crude - oil主力 contract [27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market was weak in early April [28]. - **Outlook**: High - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages, but the implementation of US tariffs will harm the global shipping market, which is negative for fuel oil [29]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the fuel - oil主力 contract [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber主力 contract fell by 4.04%. The US tariff has a negative impact on the cost and demand expectations, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The butadiene price is falling, and the production capacity utilization rate has declined. The demand for tires is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the inventory has decreased [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.18%, and the 20 - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.73%. The US tariff has a triple - path impact on the natural - rubber market, and the price lacks upward momentum in the short term [33]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The opening of the rubber - tapping season in some areas is delayed, and the demand for tires is weak. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year but is accumulating month - on - month [33][34]. - **Outlook**: There may be a technical rebound after the price drops excessively. The long - term trend depends on global trade policies and industrial chain reconstruction [33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell by 0.04%. The US tariff has limited impact on PVC imports and exports, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate between weak reality and policy expectations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises is weak. The export depends on low prices, and the inventory has increased [36][37]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell by 0.42%. The urea market is mainly in a weak adjustment state, and the price lacks upward momentum under the loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a lull, and the industrial demand is under pressure. The inventory has decreased [39]. - **Outlook**: The market may oscillate before the start of the summer fertilizer demand. Attention should be paid to factors such as northeast replenishment demand, export policy changes, and extreme weather [39]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2505主力 contract fell by 2.27%. Recently, more PX plants have been under maintenance, and the load has decreased. The downstream PTA startup has increased, but the cost support has collapsed due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices [41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. It is advisable to wait and see carefully, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and supply [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2505主力 contract fell by 2%. The supply of PTA has increased slightly, and the demand from the polyester industry has risen. However, the PTA processing fee has decreased, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant, but there is a risk of a sharp price correction. It is advisable to participate carefully and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol主力 contract fell by 1.4%. The overall production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream polyester startup has risen, but the terminal demand is weak [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the ethylene - glycol price is expected to be under pressure. It is advisable to operate carefully and pay attention to changes in port inventory and upstream - downstream plants [43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505主力 contract fell by 2.38%. The supply of short - fiber is at a relatively high level, and the demand from downstream terminals is limited. The cost support is insufficient [45]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber will follow the cost - end movement. Pay attention to risk control due to significant fluctuations [45]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2505主力 contract fell by 1.18%. The raw - material cost support is limited, the supply has increased, and the demand for downstream soft drinks is gradually recovering [46]. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chips market is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. Pay attention to changes in raw - material prices [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soda - ash 2505主力 contract fell by 0.29%. The soda - ash production has adjusted at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is stable and weak [47]. - **Outlook**: The market is still dominated by demand in the short term, and the price is subject to oscillation due to maintenance news [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the glass 2505主力 contract fell by 2.44%. The number of production lines has been at a low level, and the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The price has a certain upward momentum due to valuation repair and cost support, but the actual supply - demand drive is not obvious [48]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to continuously monitor the inventory - reduction speed [48]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda 2505主力 contract fell by 0.71%. The production of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is limited. The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the pulp 2505主力 contract fell by 1.91%. Some pulp mills have carried out maintenance, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the futures price decline [51][53]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillate [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate主力 contract fell by 1%. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to be weak [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly due to US tariffs. The spot - market trading was stable, and the premium increased [55]. - **Outlook**: With the escalation of the trade war, copper prices are difficult to remain stable. In the short term, it is not recommended to participate in the market or only participate with a light position [55]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the Shanghai - copper主力 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin fell by 2.02%. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the short - term impact of macro - events has intensified. The supply shortage in the ore end still exists, and the price is expected to be supported [56]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to risk control and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell by 1.55%. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to US tariffs. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [57]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to risk control [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon主力 contract rose by 0.20%, and the polysilicon主力 contract fell by 0.02%. The industrial - silicon market is oversupplied, and the price is weak. The polysilicon market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main - contract rose by 1.60%, and the soybean - oil main - contract fell by 1.18%. The US - China trade friction has intensified, and the US soybean main - contract fell on Friday [60]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal is accumulating, while the inventory of soybean oil is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly [60]. - **Strategy**: After the short - term extreme market reaction, the market will return to fundamentals. Long - position holders can consider taking profits on rallies. If there is still an upward trend on the second trading day, consider virtual - value put options [61][62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has fallen, pressured by the decline in CBOT soybean oil and crude oil prices. The global demand is weak due to economic concerns, and the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to rise for the first time in six months [63]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the domestic market has been affected by tariff policies. The impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has decreased [65][66]. - **Strategy**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market cotton fell by about 2.3% due to US tariff policies. The domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weakening [67][68]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the outer - market supply - demand is loose, and the domestic demand has reached a phased peak. The "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on demand, and the global economic decline has led to trade shrinkage [68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market raw sugar fell by more than 3% due to the decline in global risk assets. The domestic and foreign sugar production and inventory situations are different. The short - term decline in global risk assets will drag down sugar prices [69][70]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see [70][71]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is beneficial, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to be strong [72][73]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after price corrections [74]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price is oscillating. The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. The 4 - month planned slaughter volume of group farms has a limited increase, and the consumption is entering the

2025 年 4 月 3 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | PVC： | | 11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素： | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 12 | | PTA： | | 12 | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 14 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 15 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 16 | | 碳酸锂： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 | | 铝： | | 17 | | 锌： | | 18 | | 铅： | | 18 | | 锡： | | 19 | | 镍： | | 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 20 | | 棕榈油： | | 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 21 | | 棉花： | | 22 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market for government bonds is expected to have increased volatility, and caution is advised [5][6]. - Despite short - term fluctuations, the stock index is still expected to rise, and it is advisable to consider buying index futures on dips [9][10]. - The medium - and long - term logic for precious metals remains strong, and existing long positions can be held [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, there may be an opportunity to focus on deep out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon in the low - level range, and short - position holders of ferrosilicon can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [24][25]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [26][27]. - For polyolefins, it is recommended to take a long position in the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [30][31]. - For natural rubber, it is recommended to trade based on the range - bound thinking [32][33]. - For PVC, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35][37]. - For urea, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline in the future [38][39]. - For PX, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and investors can consider participating cautiously on dips [40]. - For PTA, it is recommended to operate cautiously and seize opportunities based on supply - demand changes [41]. - For ethylene glycol, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and investors should operate cautiously [42]. - For short - fiber, it is recommended to trade within a range following the cost side [43]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to adjust following the cost side, and attention should be paid to cost price changes [44]. - For soda ash, the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. - For glass, the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be continuously monitored [48]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to oscillate as a whole [49]. - For pulp, it is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. - For lithium carbonate, the upside pressure is expected to be large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. - For copper, the price is in a stage of adjustment [54][55]. - For aluminum, the price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [56][57]. - For zinc, the price is expected to oscillate within a range [58][59]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60][61]. - For tin, attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. - For nickel, the price has support below, but the upside space may be limited [63]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to be weak, while the polysilicon market is relatively stable [64]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - position attempts at the bottom - support range after a decline [65][66]. - For palm oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [67][68]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [69][70]. - For cotton, consider short - selling after a rebound [73][74]. - For sugar, consider buying on dips [77][78]. - For apples, consider buying on dips [79]. - For live pigs, consider the far - month opportunities after a rebound [80][81]. - For eggs, consider short - selling the far - month contracts on rallies [82][83]. - For corn, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [84][85]. - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [88]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Government Bonds - The previous trading day saw most government bond futures closing down, with the 30 - year contract up 0.15%, and the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts down 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 649 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 1st, with a net withdrawal of 313 billion yuan [5]. - The March Caixin China Manufacturing PMI reached 51.2, the highest since December 2024 [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw small fluctuations in stock index futures, with the CSI 300 futures up 0.08%, the SSE 50 futures down 0.11%, the CSI 500 futures up 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 futures up 0.39% [7]. - A national conference on promoting the replacement of consumer goods was held, emphasizing work promotion and policy implementation [7]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw the gold main contract closing at 736.3, up 0.89%, and the silver main contract closing at 8,432, down 0.87% [11]. - The eurozone's March CPI and core CPI data showed certain changes, and the unemployment rate hit a record low [11]. - The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the future rate - cut rhythm is highly uncertain [11]. Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillating. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3050 yuan/ton, and Shanghai rebar was 3100 - 3210 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils were 3330 - 3350 yuan/ton [13]. - The weak real - estate demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices, but macro policies and the peak season may provide support [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a significant rebound in iron ore futures. PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and super - special powder was 650 yuan/ton [16]. - The increasing iron - water production supports demand, and the supply - side situation has changed, with port inventory decreasing [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a strong rebound in coking coal and coke futures. Some coal - washing enterprises and traders have started to purchase, and the market sentiment has improved slightly [18]. - The demand from coking enterprises has increased, and the fundamentals of coke have shown signs of continuous improvement [19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract up 0.95% to 6146 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract up 0.37% to 5984 yuan/ton [21]. - The manganese - ore supply may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, while the supply is still high [21]. Energy Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil opening high and closing higher, up more than 3.4% [23]. - Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of US oil and gas rigs decreased [23]. - The market may be chaotic due to factors such as US - Russia negotiations and OPEC's production increase [24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rising sharply following crude oil. The domestic low - sulfur 180cst fuel oil had a certain price range [26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil supply may be tight, but the global shipping market may be affected by the trade war [26]. Chemicals Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market adjusting, and the polypropylene futures oscillating upward. The cost side provided some support, but the demand did not change significantly [28]. - The "Golden March" season is obvious, and the overall demand for polyolefins is expected to be slightly better, with the market expected to be oscillating strongly [28]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract up 0.29%. The开工 loss has been narrowing, and the inventory has been decreasing [30]. - The butadiene price is weakly oscillating, and the supply and demand situation has certain characteristics [30]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract down 0.48%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract flat. The market will continue the pattern of "high supply + weak demand" in April [32]. - The supply in Yunnan may increase, and the demand is weak, but the low social inventory provides some support [32]. PVC - The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract up 0.53%. The supply - side capacity utilization has increased, and the demand - side downstream enterprises have a certain procurement pattern [35]. - The export is still dependent on low prices, and the cost has decreased, but high inventory and new capacity put pressure on prices in the long term [35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw the urea main contract up 3.27%. The short - term spring - plowing demand and policy dividends support the strong operation, but long - term risks exist [38]. - The supply is expected to be around 200,000 tons per day, and the demand from agriculture and industry has different characteristics [38]. PX - The previous trading day saw the PX2505 main contract up 1.84%. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have adjusted, and the PX load has decreased due to multiple plant overhauls [40]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the short - term PX is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. PTA - The previous trading day saw the PTA2505 main contract up 0.82%. The supply - side load has increased, and the demand - side polyester load is expected to rise further [41]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the PTA price is expected to oscillate following the cost side [41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract up 1.8%. The coal - based plant load has decreased, and the inventory has increased and is difficult to reduce [42]. - The downstream polyester demand is gradually improving, but the peak - season performance is not as expected, and the price is expected to be under pressure [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2505 main contract up 0.97%. The supply - side load has declined slightly, and the demand - side terminal factories' raw - material inventory is stable [43]. - The cost side support is weakening, and the short - fiber price is expected to follow the cost side [43]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2505 main contract up 0.93%. The cost support is slightly insufficient, and the supply - side load is expected to increase [44]. - The downstream soft - drink consumption is gradually recovering, and the bottle - chip price is expected to adjust following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1388 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Some plants have carried out overhauls, and the supply is adjusting at a high level [45]. - The inventory has been decreasing slightly, and the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. Glass - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1235 yuan/ton, up 4.04%. The number of production lines has decreased, and the impact on the supply - demand pattern is limited [47][48]. - The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be monitored [48]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 2515 yuan/ton, down 1.30%. The production of large - scale caustic - soda enterprises has decreased [49]. - The alumina price is expected to be weak, and the caustic - soda price is expected to oscillate [49]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. Some pulp mills have maintenance plans, and the port inventory has decreased [51][52]. - The downstream demand has a certain pattern, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. Non - Ferrous Metals Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract closing up 0.49% to 74,360 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand has improved, but the inventory is still rising [53]. - The upside pressure is large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. Copper - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract closing at 79,820 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The overseas economic data is mixed, and Trump's tariff policy has escalated [54]. - The copper concentrate supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is in the peak season, but the trade friction affects exports [54]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract closing at 20,415 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, and the alumina main contract closing at 2,942 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [56]. - The alumina supply pressure is strong, and the electrolytic aluminum consumption recovery is beneficial for inventory reduction [56]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract closing at 23,305 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The zinc concentrate processing fee is rising, and the refined zinc production is expected to increase [58]. - The consumption is in the peak season, and the social inventory is expected to decrease [58]. Lead - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract closing at 17,360 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The primary lead production has declined slightly, and the secondary lead production is difficult to increase significantly [60]. - The "trade - in" policy has a slight impact on consumption, and the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin up 0.89% to 289,000/ton. The mine - end supply is disturbed, and the domestic processing fee is low, and the inventory has increased [62]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw the nickel price up 0.49% to 129,300 yuan/ton. The cost is supported by factors such as policy and season, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low [63]. - The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the market may remain in a supply - surplus situation [63]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw the industrial silicon main contract closing at 9,790 yuan/ton, down 0.31%, and the polysilicon main contract closing at 43,560 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [64]. - The industrial silicon market is in a supply - surplus situation, while the polysilicon market is supported by supply and demand [64]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw the soybean - meal main contract down 0.92% to 2804/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract down 0.90% to 7896 yuan/ton [65]. - The US soybean planting area is slightly lower than expected, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to increase, while the demand has certain characteristics [65][66]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil import in January - February 2025 decreased by 44.9% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a relatively low level [67]. - It is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed has risen, and China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes since March 20, 2025 [69]. - The impact on rapeseed

2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指: .. | | | | 贵金属: | | ﺭ | | 螺纹、热卷: . | | 0 | | 铁矿石: . | | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | ( | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | | | 聚烯烃: | | | | 合成橡胶: | .. | | | 天然橡胶: | | 10 | | PVC: | | 11 | | 尿素: | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 PX. . | | | | PTA: . | | | | 乙二醇: 13 | | | | 短纤: | | | | 瓶片: . | | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜： | | 17 ...

地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 纸浆： 16 | | --- | 2025 年 3 月 31 日星期一 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，30 年期主力合约跌 0.49%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.08%，5 年期主力合 约跌 0.04%，2 年期主力合约涨 0.00%。 公开市场方面，3 月 28 日，中国央行开展 785 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 为 1.5%。当日 930 亿元逆回购到期。 中国人民银行召开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro data remains stable, but the market's confidence in macro - economic recovery is weak. More macro - support policies are expected to be gradually implemented. For different futures products, the market trends vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each product [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fixed - Income Products Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the market's confidence in economic recovery is weak. The upward logic of treasury bond futures is fully priced, and the downward movement requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend - like market in the future, with increased volatility, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day witnessed a slight oscillation in stock index futures. The stable macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations. More macro - support policies will be implemented, and the market is expected to improve. Despite overseas trade uncertainties, the market has long - standing expectations. The current valuation of major indices is low, with room for improvement. It is still optimistic about the subsequent trend of stock indices, and it is advisable to consider buying stock index futures on dips [7][8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw an increase in the prices of gold and silver. The US GDP and PCE data were released, and the Fed paused rate cuts. The US announced tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk aversion. The long - term logic of precious metals remains strong, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions [10]. Base Metals Copper - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of copper. The Fed maintained the interest rate range, and the dollar index was revised upwards. The spot processing fee of copper concentrate decreased, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to decline. The traditional consumption season is coming, but high prices may affect the processing enterprises' production. The de - stocking speed of social inventory has slowed down. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing the rise [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw a decline in the prices of aluminum and alumina. The supply of alumina is abundant, and the production of electrolytic aluminum has a small increase. The consumption season is coming, and the consumption end has rigid support. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased. The price of alumina has limited upward space, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [57]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of zinc. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is likely to rise, and the smelting profit has improved. The supply is expected to increase. The impact of environmental protection in the north has subsided, and the consumption has improved. The social inventory of refined zinc has decreased. The zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [59]. Lead - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of lead. The processing fee of lead concentrate remained stable, and a large - scale primary lead smelter has a maintenance plan. The production of recycled lead will increase. The terminal consumption has no obvious change, and the traditional off - season is coming. The social inventory of electrolytic lead has increased. The lead price is under pressure [61]. Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of tin. The supply of tin ore is disturbed, and the processing fee is low. The raw material inventory of smelters has decreased, and the operating rate is lower than normal. The downstream orders are not as expected, and the high price has inhibited procurement. The domestic inventory has increased, and the overseas de - stocking has slowed down. The price is expected to oscillate [63]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of nickel. The news has increased the disturbance, and the cost is strongly supported. The downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market has weak transactions, but the profit has recovered. The market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, and the price has limited upward space [64]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and then decline. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC announced a new compensation - based production cut plan. The negotiation between the US and Russia ended without a joint statement, and the situation in Ukraine is complex. The OPEC production increase date is approaching, and the crude oil price is expected to face resistance and decline. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline following crude oil. Asian merchants expect an increase in fuel oil supply from the Middle East and Africa, and more European fuel oil is flowing to Asia. The supply and demand fundamentals are loose, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is weak. The pressure on the high - sulfur fuel oil market will increase in the future. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market price adjust, and the polypropylene futures oscillated within a range. The supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is released and previous maintenance devices restart. The social inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed is slow. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the overall market is in a supply - demand imbalance. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend this week. It is advisable to take a long - position operation on the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of soybean meal and an increase in the price of soybean oil. The dollar weakened, and the market expects a decrease in the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills decreased last week. The inventory of soybean meal continued to increase, and the inventory of soybean oil decreased. The consumption of soybean oil is expected to grow moderately, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the price of soybean meal may face pressure in the short term. The soybean oil inventory has difficulty in de - stocking and may continue to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider a long - position attempt at the bottom - support range after the price decline [66][67]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of palm oil. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil increased in January, and the export decreased. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in March. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level in the past 7 years. The catering consumption has increased. It is advisable to close short positions [68]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton oscillate weakly, and the overseas cotton price increased. The market is waiting for the new - year planting area report. The US cotton export sales decreased last week. The global cotton ending inventory was revised downwards. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the textile industry is in the peak season, but the demand is average. In the long - term, the overseas supply - demand is loose, and the domestic market lacks a strong upward drive. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling after the price rebound [73][74]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar oscillate, and the overseas raw sugar price declined. The Indian sugar production decreased, which may limit its export. The Thai sugar production increased. The domestic new - year production increase is less than expected, and the import volume in the first quarter is estimated to be low. The supply pressure is not large. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [76][77]. Apple - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the price of apple futures. The exchange cancelled a delivery warehouse in Shandong, which is beneficial for reducing the delivery pressure. The market is preparing for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the apple inventory is low. The trading in the production area is good, and the price is strong. The delivery in the sales area has increased, and the goods - taking is good. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [78]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the national average price of live pigs decline. The supply of large - scale farms is expected to increase slightly in March, and the consumption is in the off - season. The secondary fattening volume has decreased. The spot price is expected to have limited downward movement. The frozen - product storage has started, and the futures price has limited upward movement. It is advisable to try short - selling near the semi - annual line pressure [81][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the average price of eggs in the main production areas and a flat price in the main sales areas. The cost of eggs is low, and the breeding profit is still in a loss. The inventory of laying hens has increased, and the supply is expected to continue to increase in March. The consumption is in the off - season, and the egg price has a risk of decline. It is advisable to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the far - month contract on rallies [85][86]. Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of corn futures. The US southern corn planting has started in advance, and the market expects an increase in the US corn planting area in the 25/26 season. The domestic grain - selling progress is over 80%, and the port inventory is high. The corn storage is continuing, and the import of US corn is suspended. The demand for corn maintains a slight increase. The domestic corn supply surplus is expected to ease, and the price has a bottom - support. The import may increase in the future, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is advisable to wait and see [87][88]. Logs - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the price of logs. The domestic radiation - pine log inventory has slightly adjusted. The price of radiation - pine logs is stable. The current inventory is relatively neutral, and the real estate is in the de - stocking cycle. It is necessary to be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [90][91].