Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including bonds, stock indices, precious metals, and commodities. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and valuation, and suggests corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.63%, 0.27%, 0.18%, and 0.09% respectively. The central bank conducted 455.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 159.5 billion yuan [5]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, but market confidence in economic recovery is weak. The upward logic of Treasury bond futures is fully priced, and a downward trend requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend in the future, with increased volatility. Caution is advised [5]. Stock Indices - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 (IF) and SSE 50 (IH) futures fell by 0.26% and 0.50% respectively, while the CSI 500 (IC) and CSI 1000 (IM) futures rose by 0.10% and 0.42% respectively [7]. - **Outlook**: The current macro - data is stable, which helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations. More macro - support policies will be implemented, and the current valuation of major indices is low. It is still optimistic about the future trend of stock indices, and it is recommended to go long on stock index futures on dips [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures rose by 0.32% and 1.42% respectively. The US February durable goods orders data was better than expected [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the future rate - cut rhythm is uncertain. The US has imposed tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk aversion. The medium - to - long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions [10]. Steel and Related Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, steel and related product futures showed mixed trends. For example, iron ore futures fluctuated, and the spot prices of steel products were at certain levels [12][15]. - **Outlook**: For steel products, the real - estate downturn suppresses demand, but macro - policies and the upcoming peak season may support prices. For iron ore, the increase in demand and the decrease in port inventory support prices. It is recommended to buy at low levels and take profits on rebounds, with attention to position management [13][15]. Energy Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose, and fuel oil followed crude oil with high - level fluctuations. The CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions in US crude oil futures, and the Baker Hughes data showed an increase in the number of oil and gas rigs [22]. - **Outlook**: The US - Russia negotiation ended without a joint statement, and the OPEC+ will increase production in April, but the compensation measures may offset the impact. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate and rebound. For fuel oil, the cost - end support and supply - demand factors need to be considered. It is recommended to take long positions in both crude oil and fuel oil futures [23][26]. Chemical Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, various chemical product futures showed different trends. For example, PVC futures fell slightly, and PX futures rose [36][40]. - **Outlook**: For different chemical products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, PVC is expected to bottom out and rise, while urea is expected to fluctuate. Different investment strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each product [36][38]. Agricultural Products - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, agricultural product futures also showed mixed trends. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell, while apple futures rose [67][81]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of agricultural products are affected by factors such as harvest, consumption, and policies. For example, Brazilian soybean harvest affects the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil, and the cancellation of a delivery warehouse affects apple futures. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products [67][81]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, non - ferrous metal futures showed different trends. For example, copper futures fell, while nickel futures rose [55][64]. - **Outlook**: The prices of non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand, and cost. For example, the Fed's interest - rate decision affects copper prices, and the Indonesian policy affects nickel prices. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products [55][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is expected to have increased volatility, and caution is advised [5][6]. - The stock index is expected to have an upward trend despite short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to go long on stock index futures on dips [7][8]. - The precious metals market has a strong medium - to long - term upward logic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, and coking coal and coke, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [11][12][14]. - For iron alloys, it is expected to be slightly oversupplied currently. Opportunities for deep out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon can be considered in the low - level range, and short - position exit opportunities for ferrosilicon can be considered at the bottom [19][20]. - For crude oil, fuel oil, and polyolefins, it is advisable to take long positions in the main contracts [23][24][27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see [30][31]. - For natural rubber, PVC, the downward space is limited [32][33][35]. - For urea, it is advisable to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. - For PX and PTA, it is advisable to participate in the low - level range, considering the changes in the cost of crude oil and the supply side [39][40]. - For ethylene glycol, it is advisable to operate cautiously, paying attention to port inventory and upstream and downstream device changes [41]. - For short - fiber, it is advisable to operate in the range following the cost side, controlling risks [42]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to adjust following the cost side, paying attention to cost price changes, new device launches, and device overhauls [43]. - For soda ash, the short - term market is still demand - driven [44]. - For glass, the overall pattern is still loose, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the weakening of the market after the disappointment of the consumption improvement expectation [45]. - For caustic soda, it is expected to be oscillatory overall [46][47]. - For pulp, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [48]. - For copper, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [50][51]. - For aluminum, it is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment [52][53]. - For zinc, it is expected to be in an interval oscillation [54][55]. - For lead, it is expected to be under pressure and oscillatory [56][57]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate under the influence of supply disturbances and weak demand [58][59]. - For nickel, the short - term price has support below, but the upward space is limited under the pattern of oversupply [60]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation in the short term, while polysilicon prices are expected to rise steadily [61][62]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see, and long - position attempts can be considered in the bottom support range after the price decline [63][64]. - For palm oil, it is advisable to continue to reduce short positions and advance the stop - profit [65][67]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is advisable to consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [68][69]. - For cotton, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds [70][72]. - For sugar, it is advisable to go long on dips [73][75]. - For apples, it is advisable to go long on dips [76]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to try short - selling at high levels near the semi - annual line pressure [77][78]. - For eggs, it is advisable to sell deep out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to short - term short - selling opportunities at high levels in the far - month contracts [79][80]. - For corn, it is advisable to wait and see temporarily [81][82]. - For logs, it is necessary to be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [83][84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income Market 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.49%, 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 3779 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1046 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend market in treasury bond futures in the future, and the volatility will increase [5]. 3.2 Equity - Related Market 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.27%, 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.12% respectively. It is expected that the stock index will have an upward trend, and it is advisable to go long on stock index futures on dips [7]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 706.76, with a decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 707.3; the closing price of the silver main contract was 8,249, with an increase of 0.01%, and the night - session closing price was 8360. The US economic data is weak, and international political and trade uncertainties provide new upward drivers for precious metals. The medium - to long - term logic is still strong, and existing long positions can be held [9]. 3.4 Black Metals Market 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, but new macro - incremental policies may be introduced, and the peak demand season is coming, which may support prices. The valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [11][12]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in port inventory support the price. The valuation level has decreased, but it is still the highest among black - series products. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions [14]. 3.4.3 Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The market sentiment of coking coal has improved slightly, and the fundamentals of coke are continuously improving. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and participate with light positions, paying attention to the impact of sudden factors [16][17]. 3.4.4 Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.29% to 6108 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.50% to 6002 yuan/ton. It is expected to be slightly oversupplied currently. Opportunities for deep out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon can be considered in the low - level range, and short - position exit opportunities for ferrosilicon can be considered at the bottom [19][20]. 3.5 Energy Market 3.5.1 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. OPEC + announced a new compensatory production - cut plan. It is expected that the cease - fire agreement will be negotiated, and OPEC + will increase production on April 1. The current trend is mainly oscillatory and rebounding. It is advisable to take long positions in the main contract [21][23][24]. 3.5.2 Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The market expects an increase in supply, and the spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has declined, but the decline in European inventory limits the downward space. It is expected that high - sulfur fuel oil will be in short supply, and the trade war will have a negative impact on fuel oil. It is advisable to take long positions in the main contract [25][26][27]. 3.6 Chemicals Market 3.6.1 Polyolefins - For polyethylene, the market price was adjusted, and the low - price transactions improved, but the supply - demand was weak, and the confidence of market participants was insufficient. For polypropylene, the futures rebounded slightly, and the cost support was stable, but the demand did not improve significantly. It is expected that the market will be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. It is advisable to take long positions in the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. 3.6.2 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.22%. The operating loss has narrowed, the operating rate has rebounded significantly, and the factory inventory has been reduced. The raw material price is weak, and the supply is high. It is advisable to wait and see [30][31]. 3.6.3 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.44%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 0.07%. The import was lower than expected, and the previous negative factors have basically disappeared. The supply in the domestic Yunnan production area is expected to increase, and the overseas is in the low - production season. The demand has improved slightly. The social inventory is at a low level, which supports the price. The downward space is limited, and it is advisable to wait for new fundamental drivers to go long [32][33]. 3.6.4 PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.59%. The core contradiction in the market is the game between the continuous release of new production capacity and the weak recovery demand under policy support. It is expected that PVC will have upward space after bottoming out. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the demand is stable, the export is still dependent on low prices, and the profit has improved. The social inventory has decreased [34][35]. 3.6.5 Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.70%. The market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high production in March and winter - storage goods put pressure on the market. It is expected that the short - term market will oscillate. The supply is stable, the agricultural demand is ending, and the industrial demand is strong. The inventory has decreased [36][37][38]. 3.6.6 PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2505 main contract rose 0.32%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 200 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 85 US dollars/ton. The PX device maintenance increased, the load decreased, and the downstream PTA start - up increased. The short - term cost of crude oil oscillated and rose, and the supply - demand structure continued to improve. It is advisable to participate in the low - level range, paying attention to the changes in crude oil cost and supply [39]. 3.6.7 PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2505 main contract rose 0.29%. The supply increased, the demand improved, and the processing fee decreased. The short - term supply - demand of PTA improved, and the external crude oil price adjusted at the bottom after stopping falling. The short - term support improved. It is advisable to operate in the low - level range, paying attention to the supply - demand situation [40]. 3.6.8 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.56%. The overall start - up load decreased slightly, the inventory was high, and the de - stocking was difficult. The downstream polyester start - up increased, and the demand gradually improved. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the rebound height will be limited. It is advisable to operate cautiously, paying attention to port inventory and device changes [41]. 3.6.9 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505 main contract fell 0.33%. The device load increased, the demand improved slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected that the short - fiber will oscillate in the future, and it is advisable to operate in the range following the cost side, controlling risks [42]. 3.6.10 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2505 main contract fell 0.16%. The cost support was slightly insufficient, the supply increased slightly, and the demand for downstream soft drinks gradually recovered. It is expected to adjust following the cost side, paying attention to cost price changes, new device launches, and device overhauls [43]. 3.6.11 Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 1439 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.49%. Some devices were under maintenance, and the supply increased slightly. The production decreased slightly, the inventory decreased slowly, and the demand was average. The market is still demand - driven in the short term [44]. 3.6.12 Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 1260 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.70%. The number of production lines decreased, the inventory decreased, and the production - sales rate was high. The overall pattern is still loose, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the weakening of the market after the disappointment of the consumption improvement expectation [45]. 3.6.13 Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 2552 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.51%. The production decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory accumulated rapidly. The alumina market is oversupplied, and the non - aluminum demand is also weak. It is expected to be oscillatory overall [46][47]. 3.6.14 Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2505 contract closed at 5754 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.07%. The Finnish company will conduct annual maintenance, and the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - price pulp. It is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [48]. 3.7 Non - Ferrous Metals Market 3.7.1 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.33% to 73800 yuan/ton. The ore price fell, the supply continued to increase, the consumption improved slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate [49]. 3.7.2 Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 82780 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.3%. The Fed maintained the interest - rate range, and the Trump tariff policy showed signs of easing. The domestic central bank over - renewed the MLF. The copper concentrate processing fee decreased, the production will decrease, the traditional consumption season is coming, but the high price affects the consumption. The social inventory decreased, and the external market drove the internal market. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [50][51]. 3.7.3 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20675 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.05%; the alumina main contract closed at 3098 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.68%. The imported ore provides the main increment, the alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is small, and the consumption is in the peak season. The inventory decreased. It is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment [52][53]. 3.7.4 Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.27%. The import of zinc ore increased, the smelting profit improved, and the supply will increase. The consumption improved, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be in an interval oscillation [54][55]. 3.7.5 Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17660 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.74%. The lead concentrate processing fee was stable, a large - scale smelter

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro data remains stable, but the market's confidence in macro - economic recovery is weak. More macro - support policies are expected to be gradually implemented. The upside logic of Treasury bond futures is fully priced, and the downside requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market for Treasury bond futures in the future, with increased volatility, and caution is advised [6]. - The current macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations about the macro - economy. More macro - support policies will be gradually implemented, and the main index valuations are at a low level. It is still optimistic about the subsequent trend of stock index futures, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - The medium - and long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. The weakening of US economic data and international political and trade uncertainties provide new upward drivers. Holders of previous long positions can continue to hold [10]. - The downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and weak demand suppresses rebar futures prices. However, new macro - increment policies and the upcoming peak demand season may support prices. The price valuation of steel is at a low level, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [12]. - The increase in iron ore demand and the decline in port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [14]. - The market sentiment of coking coal has improved slightly, and the fundamentals of coke have shown continuous improvement. There are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [15]. - The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. For manganese silicon, consider deep out - of - money call options in the low - level range; for silicon iron, short - sellers in the bottom range can consider exiting [17][18]. - Crude oil is mainly in an oscillatory rebound trend. Consider taking a long position in the main crude oil contract [19][21]. - Fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil and oscillates upward. The cost end provides support, and high - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages. Consider taking a long position in the main fuel oil contract [22][23]. - The supply of polyolefins will increase, the inventory is high, and the demand recovers slowly. The market is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. Consider taking a long position in the PP and L main contracts [24][25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, the start - up loss has narrowed, the start - up rate has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has been destocked. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [27][28]. - For natural rubber, the previous negative factors have basically disappeared, and the downward space is limited. Wait for new fundamental drivers and consider taking a long position [29][30][31]. - The core contradiction of PVC lies in the game between new capacity release and weak recovery demand. It is expected to bottom out and have upward potential. The downward space is limited [32][33]. - For urea, the market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high daily output in March and winter - stored goods put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35]. - For PX, the short - term cost end oscillates upward, and the supply - demand structure continues to improve. It is expected to adjust in a slightly warmer oscillatory manner. Consider participating in the low - valuation range and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the supply end [36]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and the support has been enhanced. It is recommended to consider buying in the low - level range and pay attention to supply - demand changes [37]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is at a high level and difficult to destock, suppressing the price. It is expected to be under pressure, and the rebound height may be limited [38]. - For short - fiber, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the cost support is limited. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, mainly following the cost end [39]. - For bottle - grade chips, the domestic demand is weak, but the export maintains a high growth rate. The supply - demand fundamentals lack a driving force, and it is expected to follow the cost end [40]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [42]. - For glass, the overall supply is still abundant, and the market situation depends on downstream consumption, cold - repair of production lines, and real - estate policies [43][44][45]. - For caustic soda, the supply may have some elasticity, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [46]. - For pulp, the supply may be supported during the maintenance season of large manufacturers, but the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - priced pulp. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [47][48]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply continues to increase, the consumption has improved, and the inventory is accumulating. There is significant upward pressure, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [49]. - For copper, the strengthening of the US dollar and high prices may restrict the upward movement of copper prices. Caution is advised when chasing up [50][51][52]. - For aluminum, the alumina supply is loose, and the aluminum consumption is expected to be good. The aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [53][54]. - For zinc, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption is recovering. The zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [55][56]. - For lead, the traditional off - season and high prices are not conducive to consumption, and the lead price is under pressure [57][58]. - For tin, there are supply disturbances, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, the cost has support, but the demand for high - priced products is low, and the supply - demand surplus pattern may continue. The upward space is limited [60]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to be in surplus in March, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. For polysilicon, the demand is strong, and the price is expected to rise steadily [61]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the supply is expected to increase. The soybean meal price may be under pressure, and the soybean oil price may continue to oscillate. Consider a wait - and - see approach and try long positions in the bottom - support range [62][63]. - For palm oil, the export volume has declined, and the inventory is at a low level. Consider reducing short positions and setting stop - losses [64][65]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66][67][68]. - For cotton, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of the outer market is loose, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The downstream demand is average, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [69][70][71]. - For sugar, there is some support for the outer - market raw sugar price, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. Consider buying on dips [73][74][75]. - For apples, consumption is better than expected, and the inventory is low. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong. Consider buying on dips [76]. - For live pigs, the supply - demand is in a stalemate in the short term. Consider short - selling near the semi - annual line resistance [77][79]. - For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in March, and it is in the off - season of consumption. Consider selling deep out - of - money put options and short - selling in the far - month contracts [80][81]. - For corn, the domestic supply surplus has eased slightly, and there is support at the bottom. However, there is still short - term supply pressure, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [82][83]. - For logs, the current inventory is relatively neutral, and there is a risk of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan on the day. The 1 - 2 month national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [5]. - The central bank adjusted the MLF operation to multiple - price winning bids, which is expected to reduce bank liability costs. The macro - policy environment is positive, but the market's confidence in economic recovery is weak. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, with increased volatility [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The current macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations, and more macro - support policies will be implemented. The main index valuations are at a low level, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices rose. The eurozone's March manufacturing PMI reached a 26 - month high. The Fed paused rate cuts, and the US imposed tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk - aversion sentiment. The medium - and long - term logic of precious metals is strong, and holders of previous long positions can continue to hold [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and weak demand suppresses prices. However, new macro - policies and the peak demand season may support prices. The price valuation is at a low level, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The increase in demand and the decline in port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The market sentiment of coking coal has improved, and the fundamentals of coke have shown continuous improvement. There are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron futures prices rose. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is still high. Consider deep out - of - money call options for manganese silicon in the low - level range and short - sellers in the bottom range of silicon iron can consider exiting [17][18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. The US CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. OPEC+ announced a new compensatory production - cut plan. The negotiation between Ukraine and the US on a cease - fire agreement is attracting global attention. OPEC+ will increase production in April, but the compensatory production - cut measures offset the concern about production increase. The price is mainly in an oscillatory rebound trend, and consider taking a long position [19][20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The cost end oscillates upward, and high - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages. Consider taking a long position [22][23]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the polyethylene market price adjusted, and the polypropylene futures oscillated upward. The supply will increase, the inventory is high, and the demand recovers slowly. The market is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. Consider taking a long position in the PP and L main contracts [24][25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The start - up loss has narrowed, the start - up rate has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has been destocked. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [27][28]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The previous negative factors have basically disappeared, and the downward space is limited. Wait for new fundamental drivers and consider taking a long position [29][30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The core contradiction lies in the game between new capacity release and weak recovery demand. It is expected to bottom out and have upward potential. The downward space is limited [32][33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high daily output in March and winter - stored goods put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The short - term cost end oscillates upward, and the supply - demand structure continues to improve. It is expected to adjust in a slightly warmer oscillatory manner. Consider participating in the low - valuation range and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the supply end [36]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and the support has been enhanced. It is recommended to consider buying in the low - level range and pay attention to supply - demand changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The inventory is at a high level and difficult to destock, suppressing the price. It is expected to be under pressure, and the rebound height may be limited [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the cost support is limited. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, mainly following the cost end [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The domestic demand is weak, but the export maintains a high growth rate. The supply - demand fundamentals lack a driving force, and it is expected to follow the cost end [40]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The overall supply is still abundant, and the market situation depends on downstream consumption, cold - repair of production lines, and real - estate policies [43][44][45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply may have some elasticity, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [46]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. Some large paper mills have maintenance plans, and the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - priced pulp. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply continues to increase, the consumption has improved, and the inventory is accumulating. There is significant upward pressure, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [49]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The Fed maintained the interest rate range, and the US economic data was mostly optimistic. The copper concentrate processing fee decreased, and the electrolytic copper production may decline. The traditional consumption season is coming, but high prices may limit the increase in processing enterprise start - up rates. The dollar strengthening and high prices may restrict the upward movement of copper prices. Caution is advised when chasing up [50][51][52]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures rose. The import of bauxite provides the main increment, and the alumina supply is loose. The electrolytic aluminum production increment is small, and the consumption has rigid support. The aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [53][54]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee is likely to rise, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption is recovering, and the zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [55][56]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell. The lead concentrate processing fee remained stable, and a large - scale primary lead smelter has a maintenance plan. The traditional off - season and high prices are not conducive to consumption, and the lead price is under pressure [57][58]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. There are supply disturbances, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The cost has support, but the demand for high - priced products is low, and the supply - demand surplus pattern may continue. The upward space is limited [60]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day,

期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 1 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 2025 年 3 月 18 日 2025 年 1-2 月宏观数据跟踪和分析 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 1-2 月宏观数据是观察年初经济景气程度的主要依据，我们梳理了 1-2 月国 内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经济运行节奏的理解。 整体上 1-2 月宏观数据保持平稳，消费和房地产领域显现出更多的积极信号。 制造业 PMI 季节性回升；物价回升力度偏弱，CPI 和 PPI 底部震荡；出口保持增 长；工业生产和消费增速回升；房地产市场销售同比降幅进一步收窄。2025 年政 府工作报告提出，今年发展主要预期目标是 GDP 增长 5%左右，实施更加积极的 财政政策，后续宏观政策仍有加码空间，有助于加快国内经济企稳复苏的进程。 一、制造业 PMI 季节性回升 2 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.2%，比上月上升 1.1 个百分点， 制造业景气水平明显回升。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 52.5%，比上月上升 2.6 个百分点，高于临界点；中、小型企业 PM ...

Economic Performance - July macroeconomic data remains weak, with overall recovery momentum needing strengthening[2] - Manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.4%, indicating three consecutive months below the critical line[3] - CPI in July shows a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, up from 0.2% in June, but the recovery strength is still weak[5] Trade and Investment - July exports grew by 7% year-on-year, below the expected 9.5%, while imports increased by 7.2%[8] - Fixed asset investment from January to July reached 287,611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%[13] Financial Data - Social financing scale increased by 18.87 trillion yuan in the first seven months, down 3.22 trillion yuan from the previous year[9] - M1 decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, indicating weak consumer and business confidence[10] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment from January to July was 60,877 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year[13] - New housing sales area decreased by 19% in the first half of the year, but the decline is expected to narrow due to lower year-on-year bases[14][17]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the eighth consecutive pause[2] - Economic activity continues to expand steadily, with recent indicators showing a cooling labor market and a slight increase in the unemployment rate[2] - Inflation has eased over the past year but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the Fed committed to achieving this goal[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Price Movements - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones increased by 0.24% to 40,842.79 points, the S&P 500 rose by 1.58% to 5,522.3 points, and the Nasdaq surged by 2.64% to 17,599.4 points[4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell below 4.1%, down 70 basis points from April's peak, while the two-year yield dropped below 4.3%[4] - The U.S. dollar index declined to around 104, approximately 2.5% lower than its April high[4] Group 3: Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook - The labor market showed signs of slowing, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 206,000 in June, slightly above the expected 190,000[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, higher than the expected 4.0%, indicating a potential cooling in the labor market[7] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceeds 88%, with a 57% chance of three rate cuts by December[9][10] Group 4: Asset Class Projections - The Fed's potential rate cuts could enhance stock valuations, but risks are accumulating due to current optimistic expectations[11] - Gold prices may rise, with potential to reach $2,500 per ounce, driven by easing monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties[11] - The outlook for commodities remains optimistic in the long term, but short-term volatility is expected as markets await the Fed's rate decisions[11]

2024 年 6 月宏观数据跟踪和分析 1 6 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.5%，与上月持平，制造业景气度 基本稳定。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点； 中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 49.8%和 47.4%，比上月上升 0.4 和 0.7 个百分点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数高于临界点， 新订单指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和供应商配送时间指数低于临界点。 生产指数为 50.6%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点，高于临界点，表明制造业企业生 产保持扩张。新订单指数为 49.5%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点，表明制造业市场 需求景气度略有下降。原材料库存指数为 47.6%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点，表 明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 二、6 月物价回升力度偏弱 4 2024 年 7 月 17 日 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 一、制造业 PMI 继续处在荣枯线以下，环比持平 2 整体来看，CPI 受制于国内需求不足，回升力度偏弱；PPI 受全球大宗商品 价格 ...

8 11 7 "517"新政后，房地产行业迎来了最为宽松的政策环境，包括降低首付比 2024 年 6 月 18 日 1 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 我们梳理了 5 月以来公布的国内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经 济运行节奏的理解。5 月宏观数据整体有所回落，出口继续改善，物价温和回升， 但金融数据继续回落，消费复苏整体偏弱，房地产市场未见明显改善。整体上宏 观复苏动能仍待加强，市场预期依然偏弱，需要宏观政策加大支持力度，扩大有 效需求和稳定市场信心。 5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.5%，比上月下降 0.9 个百分点， 制造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 50.7%，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点；中、小型企业 PMI 为 49.4%和 46.7%，比上月下降 1.3 和 3.6 个百 分点。 5 月制造业 PMI 有所回落，符合季节性，但回落力度偏大，表明经济复苏仍 然面临需求不足的制约。 二、5 月物价延续回升，但回升力度偏弱 3 5 月进出口均保持了较高增速。中国 5 月出口（以人民币计价）同比增 11.2%， 前值 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the seventh consecutive pause in rate hikes[1] - The Fed lowered the 2024 economic growth forecast by 0.1% to 2% and raised the core PCE inflation forecast by 0.2% to 2.8%[1] - The median expectation for the policy rate in 2026 remains at 3%-3.25%[1] Group 2: Economic Predictions and Market Reactions - The Fed's dot plot indicates a reduction in expected rate cuts from three to one for 2024, with the median policy rate rising from 4.6% to 5.1%[5] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 272,000, exceeding the market expectation of 190,000[12] - The May CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, slightly below the expected 3.4%, indicating a cooling inflation trend[14] Group 3: Asset Price Movements - Following the Fed's meeting, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.09% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.85%[11] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to approximately 4.32%, down about 8 basis points after the CPI release[11] - Gold prices initially surged over 1% but later retraced gains, indicating cautious market sentiment[11] Group 4: Future Economic and Policy Outlook - The Fed faces a balancing act between strong labor market data and persistent inflation, with risks of both premature rate cuts and delayed action[18] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September exceeds 60%, with December showing a 28% chance for one cut and a 44% chance for two cuts[18] - The outlook for major asset classes includes a potential decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields below 4% if rate cuts materialize as expected[22]

1 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询证书号：Z0019298 摘要/观点: 一、制造业 PMI 继续处在荣枯线以上，新订单和新出口订单显著改善 2 生产指数为 52.9%，比上月上升 0.7 个百分点，表明制造业企业生产活动继 续加快。新订单指数为 51.1%，比上月下降 1.9 个百分点，继续高于临界点，表 明制造业市场需求保持恢复。 二、4 月物价延续回升，但 PPI 回升力度偏弱 3 2024 年 5 月 20 日 研究员：万亮 邮箱：wl@swfutures.com 我们梳理了 5 月以来公布的国内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经 济运行节奏的理解。4 月宏观数据仍然延续分化格局，出口继续改善，物价温和 回升，但金融数据大幅回落，消费复苏依然偏弱，房地产下行压力仍大。整体上 宏观经济运行平稳，但复苏动能仍待加强，需要宏观政策加大支持力度，扩大有 效需求和稳定市场信心。 4 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.4%，比上月下降 0.4 个百分点， 连续两个月位于扩张区间，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势。从企业规模看，大型 企业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点； ...