-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 焦炭首轮提涨部分落地，盘面偏弱运行 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 15 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1.2025 年一季度我国货物贸易进出口综指 10.3 万亿元，创历史同期新高。其中出口 6.13 万亿，同比增 6.9%，进口 4.17 万亿，同比降 6%。 焦煤： 现货暂稳，期货偏弱。蒙 5#主焦煤报 1085 元/吨(+0)，京唐港山西产主焦煤报 1380(- 0)。活跃合约报 905.5 元/吨(+13)。基差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper - Fluctuations Intensify [1] Core View of the Report - In the short term, the fundamentals are bullish and the macro - sentiment has turned positive, leading to a rebound in Shanghai copper. However, there is a high probability that the market will trade the US economic recession again, and copper prices may fall again at any time [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Weekly changes: Shanghai copper closed at 75,230 yuan/ton (-4.60%), LME copper at 9,184 dollars/ton (-1.95%), and New York copper at 4.5055 dollars/pound (-6.03%). The Shanghai electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) was 37.39 dollars/ton. Social inventory was 267,200 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 86,600 tons, with continuous inventory reduction [3] - Last week, copper prices experienced a roller - coaster market. The decline was due to Trump's global tariff war, and the rebound was due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tariff deferral, and the weakening of the US dollar. But the market's concern about the US economic recession is deepening [3] Trading Logic - In the short term, the fundamentals are bullish and the macro - sentiment has turned positive, but there is a risk of the market trading the US economic recession again and copper prices falling [4] - The processing fee inversion is deepening, the possibility of supply reduction is increasing, and smelting production may decline in April. The consumption peak season effect remains, with copper rod and tube production at a high level and continuous inventory reduction [4] - The current macro - sentiment is temporarily positive due to possible Fed monetary policy, cooling tariff disputes, and the weakening of the US dollar. But the market's concern about the US economic recession is rising [4] Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options in the follow - up [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major sugar - producing areas (except Yunnan) have started to close, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption has supported sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season has begun, but due to weather factors, production is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to oscillate and weaken in the short - term. Attention should be paid to domestic sugarcane and beet planting and growth, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to US tariff increases on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons and imports decreasing by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. High temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price Data - From April 12 to April 13, 2025, the price of US sugar remained at $17.83, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton remained at $65.84, with a 0.00% change [3] - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 6160.0 to 6170.0, a 0.16% increase; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 6060.0 to 6025.0, a - 0.58% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.93% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14300.0 to 14000.0, a - 2.10% change [3] Spread Data - From April 12 to April 13, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, sugar 01 basis, sugar 05 basis, sugar 09 basis, cotton 01 basis, cotton 05 basis, and cotton 09 basis all had a 0.00% change [3] Import Price and Profit Data - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased from 78.55 to 78.3, a - 0.32% change; the sugar import profit remained at 1155.0, with a 0.00% change [3] Option Data - The implied volatility of SR505C6100 is 0.1404, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR505 is 10.74; the implied volatility of SR505P6100 is 0.3474. The implied volatility of CF505C12800 is 0.2278, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF505 is 12.01; the implied volatility of CF505P12800 is 0.1399 [3] Warehouse Receipt Data - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained at 27410.0, with a 0.00% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 9380.0 to 9507.0, a 1.35% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [9]

期货研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 沪锌早报 走势评级： 锌——空单止盈 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 商品研究 关税影响转弱 沪锌短暂反弹 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 14 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 宏观&行业消息：【CZSPT 发布 2025 年二季度末前进口锌精矿采购美元加工 费指导价区间】4 月 9 日，中国锌原料联合谈判（协调）小组（CZSPT）最 新一期季度会议在南京召开，小组成员企业出席会议。据悉，小组对国内 外锌精矿市场走势进行了深入交流和探讨，并商议了下一阶段国内外市场 加工费的预期参考区间，CZSPT 也发布了 2025 年二季度末前进口锌精矿采 购美元加工费指导价区间：70 美元（平均值)-90 美元（平均值）/干吨。 （安泰科） 矿端：就 TC 变化来看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the sharp decline of the index on Monday, there are still "aftershocks" in the sentiment, combined with continuous international fluctuations and strengthening technical pressure. The short - term trend is expected to turn to weak sideways movement, and there is a possibility of a second bottom - testing. It is recommended that investors continue to be defensive this week. In the medium term, the underlying logic of the starting point of the A - share bull market has not changed. After the short - term pessimistic expectations reach the extreme, the impact of external factors such as subsequent tariffs tends to be the exhaustion of negative factors. Referring to the market from H2 2019 to H1 2020, wait for the opportunity of a second upward attack after the sharp decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 73.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 21.5% [4] - The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year, significantly down from the 2.8% level of the previous month, hitting a six - month low and lower than the market forecast of 2.6%. The CPI in March unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, far lower than the market forecast (an increase of 0.1%), with the previous value being an increase of 0.2% [4] Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, the A - shares continued to rebound. The four major indexes opened higher and then fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed up 0.60%, the CSI 300 Index closed up 1.31%, the CSI 500 Index closed up 1.92%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 2.34%. In terms of sectors, motorcycles (+6.22%) and precious metals (+5.30%) led the gains yesterday, while telecommunications (-1.12%) and soft drinks (-0.96%) lagged. More than 4,900 stocks rose, and the number of daily limit stocks was 178, with the profit - making effect warming up [4] - **Technical Tracking**: Affected by the spill - over of external market risks, the indexes gapped down collectively this week. The technical indicators quickly turned bearish, the short - term rebound strength was weak, and the pressure at the daily and weekly levels strengthened [4] - **Fund Flow**: The trading volume of A - shares increased slightly, rising to the level of 1.6 - 1.7 trillion this week. The willingness of funds to bottom - fish was acceptable, but it was hard to say that the market had stabilized. It is expected that the divergence will continue today [4] Core Logic Summary - **Short - term Outlook**: Due to post - decline sentiment "aftershocks", international fluctuations, and strengthening technical pressure, the short - term trend is expected to be weakly sideways, with a possible second bottom - testing. Investors are advised to be defensive this week [3] - **Medium - term Outlook**: The underlying logic of the A - share bull market remains unchanged. After short - term pessimism, external factors may turn from negative to positive. Refer to the 2019H2 - 2020H1 market and wait for the second upward attack opportunity after the sharp decline [3] - **Key Factors to Watch**: Whether the Fed will make a compromise rate cut after the uncertainty of the US economic outlook; whether the intensity of domestic policies will increase after the earnings window at the end of April [3] Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operations**: The discounts of stock index futures contracts generally widened, especially for IF and IH. There is room for correction. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - IF and short - IM portfolio; for single - side operations, stay on the sidelines or close positions on the same day according to the trend [3] - **Options Operations**: The implied volatility of stock index options continued to decline. The IV of the at - the - money contracts of the CSI 300 Index in the current month reached the 20 - 21% level. The short - term volatility is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with few certain operation opportunities. You can participate in short - term put option buying or hold the current - month written options until maturity, but risk control should be set in advance [3]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 USDA 调降出口前景，棉花短期观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-11 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Copper is rated as a short - term correction and long - term bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Market sentiment has briefly strengthened, and the market may recover in the short term. Copper prices may turn stronger in the short term, but there is still great uncertainty in the market due to the frequency of Trump's policy changes. The core contradiction lies in the macro - attribute, and the copper price may decline in the short term [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents 1. Market Conditions - Daily changes: Shanghai copper closed at 72,130 yuan/ton (-1.68%), London copper at $8,897/ton (+2.8%), New York copper at $4.4360/pound (+8.23%), Shanghai electrolytic copper premium at 95 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) at -$55/ton. Social inventory is 298,700 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 97,400 tons, which is in the destocking range [3] 2. News - China and the EU announced tariffs on US - originated goods, and then Trump suspended full - scale reciprocal tariffs and initiated a 90 - day trade negotiation (excluding China). The US Treasury bond crashed, and the Fed may adjust its monetary policy, which led to a sharp rise in US stocks [3] 3. Trading Logic - Supply reduction expectation persists, but the current supply of refined copper is still relatively high. The copper tariff issue has cooled down, and the spread arbitrage logic has weakened. Consumption is in a state of strong expectation and strong reality, with the consumption peak season effect emerging. The core contradiction is in the macro - attribute, and the copper price may decline in the short term [4] 4. Strategy Suggestion - Industrial customers should stock up at low prices; speculators should wait and see [5]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易前景预期波动加大，软商品短期观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-10 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-09 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易前景不明，软商品短期观望为主 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 ...

商品期货波动跟踪 Commodity Futures Volatility Tracking 2025年4月8日 主要观点 20日历史波动率百分位高于90%： 沪铜、沪锡 20日历史波动率百分位低于10%： 红枣、花生、LPG、硅铁、生猪、淀粉 20日历史波动率绝对值前五： 始于信 达于行 诚信 融合 创新 卓越 Integrity Integration Innovation Excellence 量化研究员 陈蔚文 交易咨询证号：Z0019441 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：chenweiwen@cindasc.com 沪锡、原油、燃油、沪银、20号胶 20日历史波动率绝对值后五： 动力煤、玉米、淀粉、花生、红枣 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明条款 1 数据概览 | 品种 | 百分位 | 绝对值 | 品种 | 百分位 | 绝对值 | 品种 | 百分位 | 绝对值 | 品种 | 百分位 | 绝对值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银 | 88. 44% | 33. 83 ...