900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/27 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1649.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 112.42 | -6.91% 高炉开工率 | 88.58 | | -0.22 | -1.36 | 0.00% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1900.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | 11.11% 铁水日均产量 | 236.28 | | -0.60 | -3.62 | 0.20% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1825.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | -6.65% 盘面05 | 17 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected, high imports in November, difficult resolution of the 01 contract contradiction, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases have no impact on profits [1]. - Polyethylene: Overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [4]. - PP: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differences are neutral, import profit is around -700, export is good.后续供应预计环比略增加, and the 01 contract may face pressure due to over - capacity, which can be relieved by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [4]. - PVC: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. PVC comprehensive profit is -100 [4]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,动力煤期货 remained at 801,江苏现货 increased from 2007 to 2088,华南现货 increased from 1990 to 2048, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for动力煤期货, 31 for江苏现货, etc [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,东北亚乙烯 was 730 (except for the last day when it was not provided),华北LL decreased from 6800 to 6700, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were -40 for华北LL, 0 for华东LL, etc [4]. PP - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,山东丙烯 increased from 5900 to 6050,东北亚丙烯 remained at 695,华东PP decreased from 6300 to 6250, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 130 for山东丙烯, -20 for华东PP, etc [4]. PVC - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,西北电石 remained at 2450 (after an increase on 2025/11/24),山东烧碱 remained at 777,电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4470 to 4520, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for西北电石, -10 for电石法 - 华东, etc [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the expected net increase in US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, as well as production data for palm oil in Malaysia, rapeseed in Canada, and Australia, and the forecasted rapeseed production in the EU and UK [1]. - It also includes spot price data for various agricultural products from November 20 - 26, 2025 [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending October 16, US 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 60 - 200 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons; US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 15 - 45 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons; US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons [1]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield increasing by 3.34% and oil extraction rate increasing by 0.41% [1]. - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from November 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month, with different regions having varying growth rates [1]. - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in October 2025 was 1,026,547 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 6.8% decrease from the same period last year; rapeseed oil production was 428,837 tons, a 0.82% increase month - on - month and a 6.62% decrease year - on - year; rapeseed meal production was 603,035 tons, a 2.26% increase month - on - month and a 6.98% decrease year - on - year [1]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is estimated to be 6.5 million tons, a 4.1% increase from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 6.3 - 6.7 million tons, and the average yield per hectare is adjusted to 1.90 tons [1]. - The 2026/27 rapeseed production in EU 27 + UK is estimated to be 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 19.3 - 21.3 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu are provided from November 20 - 26, 2025, showing price fluctuations during this period [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: TA maintains a high - maintenance state, downstream shows no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so TA's inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the cost - end PX has a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long in the positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. - **MEG**: With supply reduction and high - opening of polyester, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the valuation compression space may be limited. Short - term selling of put options can be considered, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. - **Polyester Short Fiber**: In the short term, the inventory pressure is limited, but in the long term, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device launches are approaching, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a non - high level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price Changes**: Naphtha price changes from 62.5 to 63.4, PX CFR Taiwan from 558 to 573, PTA inner - market spot from 824 to 833, etc. The PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device restarts. Some proximal TA devices are under maintenance, the start - up rate decreases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve [3]. MEG - **Price Changes**: Northeast Asia ethylene price remains at 730, MEG outer - market price from 452 to 463, etc. The MEG spot basis is around +13 for 01 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device restarts; Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Proximal domestic oil - making increases load, coal - making has some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up decreases, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates [6]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price Changes**: 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price changes from 6340 to 6385, etc. The spot price is around 6315, and the market basis is around - 100 for 01 [6]. - **Device and Market Situation**: The device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory is basically flat. The downstream demand is stable, but in the long term, the pattern may weaken [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber changes from 1815 to 1825, and the weekly change is - 25. There are also various price spreads and processing profit changes [9]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains at 730, pure benzene (CFR China) from 660 to 685, etc. There are also changes in domestic profits of styrene and its downstream products [12].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Date: November 27, 2025 [5] - Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. Group 4: Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) on November 26 was 17, with a daily change of 25 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) on November 26 was 47, with a daily change of 25 [3] - South China basis (Foshan warehouse) on November 26 was 7, with a daily change of 25 [3] - The 12 - 01 spread on November 26 was -7, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The 12 - 03 spread on November 26 was -19, with a daily change of 0 [3] - The 01 - 02 spread on November 26 was 6, with a daily change of -2 [3] Futures Contracts - The BU main contract (01) on November 26 was 3043, with a daily change of -25 [3] - The trading volume on November 26 was 342611, with a daily change of 100034 and a decrease of 9 [3] - The open interest on November 26 was 382270, with a daily change of 38521 and an increase of 5 [3] - The combination volume remained at 4690 with no change [3] Spot Prices - Brent crude oil price on November 26 was 62.5, with a daily change of -0.9 [3] - Jingbo asphalt price remained at 3000 with no change [3] - E asphalt price remained at 2980 with no change [3] - Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price remained at 3090 with no change [3] - Foshan warehouse asphalt price remained at 3050 with no change [3] Profits - Asphalt Ma Rui profit on November 26 was 219, with a daily change of 42 [3] - Ma Rui type refinery comprehensive profit on November 26 was 802, with a daily change of 38 [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Categories Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 795, up 3 daily and 3 weekly; PB powder is 798, up 3 daily and 3 weekly; Macfarlane powder is 787, up 1 daily and 1 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 751, up 3 daily and 5 weekly; Mixed powder is 732, up 2 daily and 4 weekly; Ultra Special powder is 681, up 2 daily and 3 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 785, up 3 daily and 3 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore is 838, up 3 daily and 4 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 775, up 3 daily and 3 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 780, up 3 daily and 3 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 880, up 5 daily and unchanged weekly; 61% Indian powder is 740, up 3 daily and 5 weekly; Karara concentrate is 882, up 5 daily and unchanged weekly; KUMBA powder is 857, up 3 daily and 3 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 616, up 2 daily and 3 weekly; Atlas powder is 727, up 2 daily and 4 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is 1014, unchanged daily and down 6 weekly [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is 797.0, up 3.0 daily and 5.5 weekly; i2605 is 773.5, up 4.0 daily and 18.5 weekly; i2609 is 748.5, up 5.5 daily and 18.5 weekly [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 102.50, up 0.67 daily and 1.23 weekly; FE05 is 99.91, up 0.47 daily and 1.18 weekly; FE09 is 97.76, up 0.40 daily and 1.16 weekly [1] Premiums and Spreads - **Import Profits**: Newman powder import profit is -18.19; PB powder is -17.34; Macfarlane powder is 5.40; Jinbuba powder is 5.13; Mixed powder is -21.60; Ultra Special powder is -31.26; Carajás powder is -16.47; Brazilian mixed ore is 1.59; Roy Hill powder is 13.42 [1] - **Monthly Spreads**: For DCE contracts, i2601 - i2605 spread is -48.5, i2605 - i2609 spread is 23.5, i2609 - i2601 spread is 25.0; for SGX contracts, FE01 - FE05 spread is -4.74, FE05 - FE09 spread is 2.59, FE09 - FE01 spread is 2.15 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, reflecting the current market conditions of these two industries. For glass, it shows the price changes of different regions and contracts, as well as the profit and sales conditions; for soda ash, it shows the price, profit, and inventory changes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Data**: - The prices of 5mm glass in different regions have different degrees of change. For example, the price of 5mm glass in Hubei decreased by 40 from November 19th to November 26th, while the prices in some regions remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of FG05 and FG01 contracts increased, with FG05 rising by 30 and FG01 rising by 28 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Profit Data**: - The profits of glass production in different regions and with different energy sources also changed. For example, the profit of 05FG gas decreased by 6.3, and the profit of 01FG gas decreased by 4.2 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Sales and Inventory Data**: - The sales of glass in Shahe were strong, with a sales rate of 161, while the sales in Hubei and other regions were relatively weak [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - The prices of heavy soda ash in different regions had different changes. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai decreased by 30 from November 19th to November 26th, while the prices in some regions remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts decreased, with SA05 decreasing by 16, SA01 decreasing by 7, and SA09 decreasing by 16 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Profit Data**: - The profits of soda ash production in different regions and with different production methods increased. For example, the profit of North China ammonia - soda increased by 39.5, and the profit of North China combined - soda increased by 34.9 from November 19th to November 26th [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - The inventory of the soda ash industry's mid - upstream decreased [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore accelerated to weaken, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking declined rapidly. The EW continued to strengthen this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore oscillated and weakened this week, the monthly spread oscillated and weakened, and the basis strengthened slightly [5]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased [6]. - With the strengthening of the expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of external gasoline and diesel dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21st, the Singapore basis started to rebound recently [6]. - As global residue enters the inventory - building cycle, the external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillating pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - shorting idea at home and abroad, and consider laying out 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [6]. 3. Key Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 354.27 | 342.52 | 345.95 | 339.09 | 348.04 | 8.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 401.58 | 392.05 | 393.07 | 385.63 | 392.49 | 6.86 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -7.11 | -7.70 | -7.70 | -8.01 | -7.60 | 0.41 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 705.27 | 674.04 | 663.55 | 648.85 | 645.56 | -3.29 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -303.69 | -281.99 | -270.48 | -263.22 | -253.07 | 10.15 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 31.62 | 28.61 | 26.56 | 25.67 | 24.29 | -1.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 47.12 | 46.54 | 44.45 | -2.09 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 352.24 | 348.23 | 346.75 | 345.55 | 345.29 | -0.26 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 354.70 | 352.69 | 353.32 | 352.99 | 354.79 | 1.80 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 437.80 | 427.47 | 423.30 | 423.05 | 416.41 | -6.64 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 94.36 | 88.67 | 86.75 | 86.59 | 84.50 | -2.09 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.92 | -7.06 | -6.96 | -7.95 | -8.03 | -0.08 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -260.46 | -228.69 | -218.65 | -217.72 | -208.89 | 8.83 | [3][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 345.42 | 343.36 | 344.02 | 342.03 | 336.87 | -5.16 | | FOB VLSFO | 438.34 | 427.46 | 423.62 | 422.33 | 416.44 | -5.89 | | 380 Basis | -5.25 | -4.55 | -4.00 | -3.25 | -3.45 | -0.20 | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 3.9 | -1.3 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 1.3 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2517 | 2502 | 2512 | 2491 | 2467 | -24 | | FU 05 | 2565 | 2539 | 2554 | 2538 | 2516 | -22 | | FU 09 | 2541 | 2513 | 2520 | 2516 | 2494 | -22 | | FU 01 - 05 | -48 | -37 | -42 | -47 | -49 | -2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 24 | 26 | 34 | 22 | 22 | 0 | | FU 09 - 01 | 24 | 11 | 8 | 25 | 27 | 2 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3139 | 3078 | 3041 | 3015 | 3023 | 8 | | LU 05 | 3145 | 3085 | 3068 | 3055 | 3023 | -32 | | LU 09 | 3160 | 3119 | 3108 | 3095 | 3073 | -22 | | LU 01 - 05 | -6 | -7 | -27 | -40 | 0 | 40 | | LU 05 - 09 | -15 | -34 | -40 | -40 | -50 | -10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 21 | 41 | 67 | 80 | 50 | -30 | [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/27 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86690 10873 7.97 三月 86600 10865 7.97 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -712.75 现货出口 293.03 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22390 3171 7.06 三月 22365 3008 5.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.45 -4415.71 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21400 2784 7.68 三月 21505 2811 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.31 -1733.11 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120450 14652 8.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1756.72 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/27 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16950 1945 8.74 三月 17065 1986 11.26 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.69 96 ...

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