有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/29 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/22 -430 5281 95805 48542 -1754.65 -517.00 48.0 51.0 6.58 157750 51750 2025/12/23 -440 4777 95805 49543 -1909.24 -498.41 55.0 54.0 13.16 158575 48875 2025/12/24 -465 5208 95805 52222 -2003.83 -422.80 55.0 54.0 19.69 157025 46525 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/26 -525 6208 111703 58647 - 2945.00 55.0 54.0 - - - 变化 -25 835 15898 -436 - 2522.91 0. ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the Christmas holiday, trading volume in the overseas market was light, and crude oil prices declined on Friday night. The market is focused on geopolitical situations, with Iran warning Israel and the US not to launch attacks. EIA weekly reports and ARA inventory updates are on hold. Global oil inventories are decreasing, while Singapore's oil inventories are increasing. Gasoline and diesel cracks are oscillating weakly, with a large fundamental surplus. If geopolitical risks subside, the surplus in the first quarter will be four times the seasonal level. Short - term spreads and absolute prices should be under - allocated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Price Data - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated from $58.01 to $56.74, BRENT from $62.07 to $60.64, and DUBAI from $62.12 to $61.86. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined products also showed different degrees of change [3]. b. Daily News - Hamas claims that Israel has not fulfilled the cease - fire agreement and calls on the US to pressure Israel. Hamas hopes to complete the agreement's terms and enter the second phase, and emphasizes that the future management committee in the Gaza Strip should be composed of Palestinians [3]. - Iranian President warns the US and Israel not to launch new attacks, stating that Iran is stronger now than before the June attacks [4]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet with European leaders after meeting with US President Trump to seek a stronger stance against Russia [4]. c. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, compared to the previous value of - 932.2 million barrels. API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels (previous value: 251.1 million barrels), and API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels (previous value: 483.5 million barrels) [4][5]. - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a 0.3% decline. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.0 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day. US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day from the previous week. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.82% year - on - year [5].

Price Performance - The latest price of WTI crude oil is $56.74, with no change; the latest price of LME copper is $12,133.00, with no change; the latest value of the US 10-year TIPS is 1.91, with no change [1] Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE silver is 819.43, a decrease of 32.99; the latest gold ETF holdings are 1071.13; the latest silver ETF holdings are 16,390.56; the latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE silver and SGE gold is 1 and 2 respectively, with no change [2]

Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated December 29, 2025 [2] SP Main Contract Close Price - On December 26, 2025, the SP main contract closed at 5630.00 [3] - The daily price changes from December 22 - 26 were 2.10679%, -0.03557%, 0.00000%, -0.28470%, and 0.46395% respectively [3] - The basis for Shandong Yinxing on December 26 was -40, and for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was -70 [3] Import Pulp Prices and Profits - Based on a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion was 51.39, for Canadian Lion was -287.55, and for Chilean Yinxing was -24.91 [4] Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From December 22 - 26, 2025, the national and Shandong regional average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged [4] - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper also showed no change during this period [4] - The estimated profit margins of double - offset, double - copper, white card, and living paper remained constant from December 23 - 26 [4] Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between coniferous and broad - leaf, coniferous and natural, coniferous and chemical mechanical, and coniferous and waste paper pulp showed little change from December 22 - 26 [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the EC2602 contract, future trends depend on spot prices. It's difficult to predict the peak height, timing of the January freight rates, and subsequent price - drop rhythms. At current levels, entry is not recommended [2]. - The EC2604 contract has a moderately high valuation, but there is a short - term upward risk due to factors such as capital position transfer, geopolitical reversals, pre - holiday position reduction, and price increase announcements after reaching a price bottom. The strategy is to short on rallies [2]. - The far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitics. Given the long - term logic of resumption of navigation and off - season, the strategy for the EC2610 contract is to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1613.0, with a change of 0.31% and a decline of 23.8. The trading volume was 85 [1]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1824.5, with a change of 1.38% and a decline of 235.3. The trading volume was 26553 [1]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1154.8, with a change of - 0.83% and an increase of 434.4. The trading volume was 7478 [1]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1316.2, with a change of - 0.29% and an increase of 273.0. The trading volume was 734 [1]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1486.1, with a change of - 0.71% and an increase of 103.1. The trading volume was 62 [1]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1049.3, with a change of - 0.92% and an increase of 539.9. The trading volume was 939 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 458.2, with a daily increase of 14.7 and a weekly decrease of 57.4 [1]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was - 211.5, with a daily decrease of 19.8 and a weekly decrease of 167.3 [1]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 669.7, with a daily increase of 34.5 and a weekly increase of 109.9 [1]. Shipping Indexes - SCFIS (European Line): On 2025/12/22, the index was 1589.20 points, with a 5.21% increase from the previous period. On 2025/12/26, the price was 1690 dollars/TEU [1]. - CCFI: On 2025/12/26, the index was 1519.06 points, with a 3.06% increase from the previous period [1]. - NCFI: On 2025/12/26, the index was 1144.37 points, with a 7.22% increase from the previous period [1]. European Line Spot Freight Quotes - Week 52: Maersk (MSK) opened at 2300 dollars, and other companies mainly followed Week 51. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures [3]. - Week 1: Maersk (MSK) opened at 2500 dollars, OA at 2700 - 2800 dollars (EMC's partial routes at 2500+ dollars), and PA at 2800 dollars (Jiliang at 2600 dollars). The central price was 1950 dollars, equivalent to about 1950 points on the futures [3]. - Week 2: Maersk (MSK) kept the price flat at 2500 dollars, but the price at Hamburg Port was 2600 dollars (a 100 - dollar increase from the previous period) [3]. Related News - On December 28, differences between the US and Israel over the Gaza issue emerged. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited the US, aiming to persuade the US to accept Israel's tougher stance on the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]. - On December 27, the rift in the Gulf region deepened as Saudi Arabia attacked a Yemeni faction supported by the UAE [4].

乘 亦安期货 动力煤早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025-12-29 最新 日变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 月 变化 周变化 周变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 秦皇岛5000 687.0 25省终端可用天数 25省终端供煤 20 9.0 134.0 220 0.6 -85.0 -2.0 -29.0 -136.0 607.3 -1.2 -32.7 -15.5 1.1 273.0 一州港5500 810.0 0.0 -15.0 -50.0 -60.0 北方港库存 2799.0 -14.0 -12.0 427.3 495.0 550.0 71.0 14.0 -4.0 -36.7 鄂尔多斯5500 0.0 -10.0 -100.0 -65.0 北方锚地船舶 0.0 6.0 -10.0 -70.0 北方港调入量 大同5500 0.0 -95.0 7.7 3.7 北方港吞叶量 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -42.0 -42.0 142.4 -14.4 -16.6 -41.5 -13.4 CBCFI海运指数 秦皇岛-上海（4-5DWT） 596.5 榆林6200 5省终端日耗 745.0 0.0 -15.0 ...

Global Asset Market Performance - 10-year Treasury yields: US at 4.129, Japan at 2.034, Brazil at 6.191, China at 1.833, South Korea at 3.371 [1] - 2-year Treasury yields: US at 3.480, Japan at 1.102, China (1Y yield) at 1.293, South Korea at 2.797 [1] - USD exchange rates against major emerging economies: Brazil at 5.544, South Africa (zar) at 16.661, South Korea (won) at 1442.300, Thailand (baht) at 31.068, Malaysia (ringgit) at 4.049 [1] - RMB exchange rates: Onshore at 7.005, offshore at 7.005, mid - price at 7.036, 12 - month NDF at 6.886 [1] - Major stock indices: S&P 500 at 6929.940, Dow Jones Industrial Average at 48710.970, NASDAQ at 23593.100, Nikkei at 50750.390, Shanghai Composite Index at 3963.679 [1] - Credit bond indices: US investment - grade at 3546.540, Eurozone investment - grade at 265.380, emerging economies investment - grade at 290.230, US high - yield at 2908.630, Eurozone high - yield at 409.840, emerging economies high - yield at 1822.849 [1] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index closing prices: A - shares at 3963.68, CSI 300 at 4657.24, SSE 50 at 3045.40, ChiNext at 3243.88, CSI 500 at 7458.84 [2] - Index price changes (%): A - shares at 0.10, CSI 300 at 0.32, SSE 50 at 0.41, ChiNext at 0.14, CSI 500 at 0.65 [2] - Index valuations (PE(TTM)): CSI 300 at 14.13, SSE 50 at 11.78, CSI 500 at 33.61, S&P 500 at 27.68, Germany DAX at 18.84 [2] - Index valuation环比 changes: CSI 300 at 0.00, SSE 50 at 0.00, CSI 500 at 0.00, S&P 500 at - 0.01, Germany DAX at 0.00 [2] - Index risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate): S&P 500 at - 0.52 [2] - Index risk premium环比 changes: S&P 500 at 0.00 [2] Transaction Amount and Basis Data - Transaction amounts: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets at 21601.91, CSI 300 at 4604.27, SSE 50 at 1009.17, SME board at 4672.38, ChiNext at 5713.14 [3] - Transaction amount环比 changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets at 2356.68, CSI 300 at 750.71, SSE 50 at 188.41, SME board at 520.91, ChiNext at 450.21 [3] - Futures basis: IF at - 18.84, IH at 6.00, IC at - 70.84 [3] - Futures basis amplitude (%): IF at - 0.40, IH at 0.20, IC at - 0.95 [3] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T2303 at 108.30, TF2303 at 106.05, T2306 at 108.32, TF2306 at 106.03 [3] - Treasury futures price changes (%): T2303 at 0.10, TF2303 at 0.06, T2306 at 0.10, TF2306 at 0.04 [3] Money Market Data - Money market interest rates: R001 at 1.3450%, R007 at 1.5264%, SHIBOR - 3M at 1.6000% [3] - Money market interest rate daily changes (BP): R001 at - 17.00, R007 at 1.00, SHIBOR - 3M at 0.00 [3]

Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [3] BR (Butadiene Rubber) Analysis Futures Market - On December 26, the BR main contract (12) price was 11,635, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 405 [4]. - The position was 64,505, a daily decrease of 18,144 and a weekly decrease of 39,224 [4]. - The trading volume was 196,070, a daily increase of 41,180 and a weekly increase of 22,143 [4]. - The warrant quantity remained at 23,490, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2,680 [4]. - The long - short ratio was 13.73, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 11 [4]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The butadiene rubber basis was - 582, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 55 [4]. - The styrene - butadiene basis was - 135, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 520 [4]. - The 02 - 03 spread was - 5, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 10 [4]. - The 03 - 04 spread was - 5, a daily increase of 10 and a weekly increase of 5 [4]. - The RU - BR spread was 4,145, a daily decrease of 300 and a weekly increase of 170 [4]. - The NR - BR spread was 1,120, a daily decrease of 290 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,350, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 350 [4]. - The Transfar market price was 11,400, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 500 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,400, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4]. - CFR Southeast Asia was 1,625, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 25 [4]. Profit Analysis - The spot processing profit was 582, a daily decrease of 183 and a weekly decrease of 237 [4]. - The import profit was - 234, a daily increase of 230 and a weekly increase of 3 [4]. - The export profit was 870, a daily decrease of 202 and a weekly decrease of 177 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Analysis Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 8,400, a daily increase of 375 and a weekly increase of 575 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 8,200, a daily increase of 400 and a weekly increase of 425 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,100, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. - CFR China was 930 [4]. Profit Analysis - The ethylene cracking profit was - 39 [4]. - The carbon - four extraction profit was 1,059 [4]. - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 684, a daily increase of 470 and a weekly increase of 495 [4]. - The import profit was 70 [4]. - The export profit was - 1,399, a daily decrease of 363 and a weekly increase of 237 [4]. Other Product Profit Analysis - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,188, a daily decrease of 125 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]. - The ABS production profit was - 738 [4]. - The SBS production profit was - 635, a daily decrease of 210 and a weekly decrease of 240 [4]. Data Source - The data sources are Mysteel and Wind [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25, 2025, showed significant growth, with SGS reporting a 41.25% increase to 824,276 tons compared to the same period last month, and AmSpec reporting a 3.0% increase to 1,017,897 tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by 9.12% compared to the previous period, with a 8.49% decline in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.12% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from December 1 - 25, 2025, were 824,276 tons, a 41.25% increase from the same period last month [1] - AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from December 1 - 25, 2025, were 1,017,897 tons, a 3.0% increase from the same period last month [1] - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by 9.12% compared to the previous period, with a 8.49% decline in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.12% decrease in oil extraction rate [1] Spot Prices - From December 22 - 26, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu showed different degrees of change [2] Protein Meal Basis - No specific data provided Fat Basis - No specific data provided Fat and Oil Futures Spread - No specific data provided

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