芳烃橡胶早报 M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/06/24 850 517 4480 4495 4483 560 -726 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/25 850 515 4398 4415 4400 478 -808 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/26 850 511 4379 4395 4385 459 -824 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/27 850 508 4346 4360 4347 582 -858 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 2025/06/30 850 508 4334 4350 4334 570 -867 67.2 71.3 54.5 65 变化 0 0 -12 -10 -13.00 -12.00 -9 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对09（+68）附近。 MEG装置变化 陕西榆能40万吨单线检修。 周度观点 近端国内油 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/7/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河安全 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1007.0 | 1019.0 | 1006.0 | -1.0 | -13.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1126.0 | 1126.0 | 1126.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1062.0 | 1077.0 | 1085.0 | 23.0 | 8.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the FU07 internal - external spread oscillated around - $5, and the 09 spread oscillated around + $10. With a large amount of near - month delivery goods, the market maintained a loose pattern [5]. - The low - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly and oscillated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread oscillating around $17 [7]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage oscillated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, floating storage inventory oscillated, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [7]. - This week, geopolitical risks were resolved. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, and Egypt's net imports reached a new high. The high - sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Currently, high - sulfur is in the peak power - generation season, the near - month FU internal - external spread is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 413.51 | 405.86 | - 6.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 466.22 | 473.81 | - 0.73 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 1.97 | - 2.53 | - 0.27 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 642.12 | 645.87 | 1.65 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 175.90 | - 172.06 | - 2.38 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.22 | 21.11 | 0.36 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 52.71 | 67.95 | 5.40 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 427.90 | 417.96 | 2.05 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 436.97 | 425.74 | 2.21 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 501.16 | 500.47 | 1.98 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.76 | 86.17 | - 0.80 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.54 | - 1.21 | 0.44 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 133.46 | - 137.19 | 7.90 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 431.62 | 418.52 | 1.75 | | FOB VLSFO | 508.57 | 505.08 | 1.06 | | 380 Basis | 2.75 | 0.85 | - 0.15 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 9.8 | 9.6 | - 1.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 21.1 | 14.6 | - 2.4 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2895 | 2854 | - 10 | | FU 05 | 2850 | 2801 | - 10 | | FU 09 | 3065 | 2990 | - 12 | | FU 01 - 05 | 45 | 53 | 0 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 215 | - 189 | 2 | | FU 09 - 01 | 170 | 136 | - 2 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3500 | 3507 | - 21 | | LU 05 | 3421 | 3444 | 10 | | LU 09 | 3629 | 3581 | - 19 | | LU 01 - 05 | 79 | 63 | - 31 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 208 | - 137 | 29 | | LU 09 - 01 | 129 | 74 | 2 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean inventory in the quarter ending June 1, 2025, was higher than expected, while the planting area was lower than expected, and the good-to-excellent rate was also lower than expected [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports showed varying degrees of increase in June 2025 according to different institutions' data [1]. - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, but the export tax remained unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. 2025 Q2 soybean inventory was 1.007664 billion bushels, higher than the estimated 0.98 billion bushels. Farm - in inventory was 0.4117 billion bushels, and farm - out inventory was 0.595964 billion bushels [1]. - The estimated U.S. 2025 soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the market estimate of 83.655 million acres, and the 2024 actual planting area was 87.05 million acres [1]. - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the expected 67%. The emergence rate was 94%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [1]. - A private exporter reported selling 204,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - As of the week ending June 26, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 224,787 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 45.851787 million tons, compared with 41.554272 million tons in the same period last year [1]. - The estimated U.S. May 2025 soybean crushing volume was 204.7 million bushels, 1.1% higher than April and 6.8% higher than May 2024. The estimated May 31 soybean oil inventory was 1.871 billion pounds, down 5.3% from the end of April and 14.5% from May 2024 [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's June 2025 palm oil exports increased 4.3% month - on - month; ITS reported a 4.7% increase; SGS reported an 11.74% increase [1]. - Indonesia raised the July reference price of crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton from $856.38 in June, with the export tax remaining at $52 per ton [1]. Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit No detailed information provided [2]. Futures Price Spreads of Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [5]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 24 - 30, 2025 [3]. Basis of Protein Meal and Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [3][7].

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/07/01 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/24 | 2166 | 2254 | 2019 | 2158 | 2181 | 2102 | | 2025/06/25 | 2164 | 2250 | 2018 | 2143 | 2181 | 2099 | | 2025/06/26 | 2164 | 2249 | 2015 | 2138 | 2180 | 2094 | | 2025/06/27 | 2161 | 2247 | 2011 | 2137 | 2180 | 2092 | | 2025/06/30 | 2163 | 2248 | 2011 | 2137 | 2180 | 2094 | | 环比 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/01 【行情分析】： 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/24 2260 | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -59 | 0 443 | 2850 | 2950 | 168 | -63 | | 2025/06/25 2260 | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -47 | 0 459 | 2850 | 2950 | 113 | -63 | | 2025/06/ ...

| | | | | 铁矿石早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 | | 2025/7/1 | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 94.40 | 1.10 | 0.60 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 703 | 0 | 1 | 750.8 | 91.55 | -0.15 | 0.45 | -33.81 | | | PB粉 | 708 | 1 | 0 | 748.1 | 93.70 | -0.05 | 0.10 | -13.08 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 691 | 1 | 0 | 755.1 | 89.65 | -0.15 | 0.50 | -9.50 | | | 金布巴 | 660 | 1 | 0 | 746.3 | 85.90 | -0.15 | 0.35 | - ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4580. PP prices fluctuate, FEI and CP prices decline, CP discount remains unchanged, PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. The PG futures market weakens, the monthly spread changes little, and the 08 - 09 spread is 95. The US - Far East arbitrage window closes [1]. - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. Geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the week lead to a bullish market, but overall supply is abundant, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle - East situation causes a sharp drop in oil prices, pressuring the market later in the week. The PG futures market falls sharply, the basis strengthens to 345, and the monthly spread changes little. External market prices weaken significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The internal - external price difference drops significantly, PG - CP weakens to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakens significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Import prices drop significantly, AFEI propane discount drops slightly, and CP propane - butane discount drops significantly. PDH spot production profit improves, paper - based production profit rises, FEI is lower than CP; alkylation oil profit rises significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit is basically flat, isomerization etherification profit increases; FEI - MOPJ moves up [1]. - Fundamentally, increased arrivals lead to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation, East China destocks, and South China and Shandong accumulate inventory; external sales increase; PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and MTBE production remains basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 lots (+0). Next week, PDH and alkylation operating rates are expected to rise slightly, combustion demand remains weak, low prices stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Data - From June 24 - 30, 2025, prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and other related products change. For example, South China LPG prices range from 4710 - 4755, Shandong LPG prices range from 4599 - 4667 [1]. Market Conditions - Futures market: The PG futures market weakens, and the monthly spread changes little [1]. - External market: FEI and CP prices decline, and the US - Far East and US - Asia arbitrage windows close [1]. - Spot market: Civil gas prices show a trend of rising first and then falling [1]. Profit and Cost - PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. PDH spot production profit improves, and paper - based production profit rises [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventory accumulates due to increased arrivals, factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation. PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data on container shipping futures, freight rate indices, and shipping capacity arrangements, as well as recent shipping - related news. It also shows the seasonal trends of various freight rate indices for different routes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2506 closed at 1887.7 with a 0.10% increase, EC2508 at 1805.0 with a 2.56% increase, EC2510 at 1325.9 with a 0.02% increase, EC2512 at 1495.0 with a 0.40% increase, EC2602 at 1317.2 with a - 0.02% decrease, and EC2604 at 1170.6 with a 0.90% increase. The trading volumes and open interest for each contract are also provided, along with the changes in open interest [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are presented, such as EC2506 - 2508 was 82.7, EC2508 - 2510 was 479.1, etc., and their comparisons with previous periods are given [2]. Freight Rate Indices - **SCFI 303 (Europe - America)**: Updated annually, on 2025/6/27, it was 2030 S/TEU, with a 10.63% increase from the previous period and a - 0.49% change from the period before that [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, on 2025/6/27, it was 1640.72, with a 3.94% increase from the previous period and a 6.03% increase from the period before that [2]. - **NCFI**: On 2025/6/27, it was 1442.95, with an 11.03% increase from the previous period and a - 0.64% change from the period before that [2]. - **TCI**: On 2025/6/26, it was 937.12, with a 0.00% change from the previous period and a - 2.60% change from the period before that [2]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In July and August 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly shipping capacities are 299,000 and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo receipts but no space shortages. The shipping capacity in the second and fourth weeks of July is neutral, while the third week is relatively high, which may suppress freight rates. In week 33, there is a new shipping service, and there are ship delays for PA&MSC [2]. European Line Quotation - Shipowners announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000. In the first week, some shipowners reduced prices, and MSK dropped to $3100, with the final average price at $3400 (equivalent to 2400 points on the disk). In the second week, MSK opened at $2900, and the current average quote from shipowners is $3400, equivalent to 2400 points on the disk [2]. Shipping - Related News - On 6/26, the defense minister of a certain country stated that Israel regularly takes actions to thwart relevant threats. On 6/29, the director - general of the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran may produce enriched uranium within a few months. On 6/30, Israeli forces attacked multiple areas in Gaza, killing at least 21 Palestinians [2]. Seasonal Trends of Freight Rate Indices - **European Line**: Seasonal trends of SCFIS, SCFI, TCI, CCFI, NCFI, XSI - C, FBX11, and WCl freight rate indices are presented, covering multiple years from 2014 - 2025 [5][7][9][11]. - **Other Routes**: Seasonal trends of TCI freight rate indices for routes such as the Eastern Mediterranean, Western Mediterranean, East America, West America, South - West America, Southeast Asia (Ho Chi Minh), Persian Gulf, East Africa, and India - Pakistan are shown, with data spanning from 2015 - 2025 [13].

Price Performance - Latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3271.75, 35.98, 1392.00, 1089.00, 65.52, and 9893.50 respectively [1] - Price changes of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, and LME Copper are -0.04, 0.00, -0.00, 0.24, and 0.02 respectively [2] Trading Data - Latest inventory of COMEX Silver is not provided,上期所白银库存 is 1295.66,黄金ETF持仓 is 954.82,白银ETF持仓 is 14866.19,上金所白银库存 is 1378.88, and the deferred fee payment directions of 上金所黄金 and 上金所白银 are both 1 [2] - Inventory changes of 上期所白银, 黄金ETF持仓 are 24.83 and 1.43 respectively, while changes of COMEX Silver, 白银ETF持仓, 上金所白银 inventory, and deferred fee payment directions are 0.00 [2] Other Data - Latest values of US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.26, 1.17, 1.37, 144.64, and 2.00 respectively [11] - Changes of some unspecified data are -46.95, -0.61, 84.00, 40.00, 0.28, 132.50 [7]