| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/12/19 2025/12/25 2025/12/26 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/12/19 2025/12/25 2025/12/26 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1130.0 | 1140.0 | 1140.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1176.0 | 1184.0 | 1200.0 | 24.0 | 16.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1120.0 | 1120.0 | 1120.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1120.0 | 1115.0 | 1121.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1236.0 | 1240.0 | 1258.0 | 22.0 | 18.0 | | ...

키s 集运量版 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨੀ EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1608.0 | 涨跌 0.1 3% | 意 -18.8 | 昨日成交量 112 | | 昨日持仓昼 1714 | 持仓变动 -76 | | | EC2602 EC2604 | | 1799.7 1164.5 | 0.22% -0.04% | -210.5 424.7 | 28762 6267 | | 34250 21254 | -66 264 | | | EC2606 | | 1320.0 | 0.08% | 269.2 | 258 | | 2126 | -19 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1496.7 | 1.06% | 92.5 | 112 | | 1181 | -12 | | | EC2610 | | 1059.0 | 0.715% | 530.2 | 811 | | 5941 | 2777 | | | 月差 | | 前 ...

波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间:2025/12/26 、隐含波动率指数、历史波动率及其价差走势图 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 隐波指教分位教与波动率价差分位费排名图 1、隐波分位数代表当前品种隐波在历史上的水平。分位数高代表当前稳波偏高。分位数低代表稳疲偏低。2、波动率价差书急按指数一切史皮 动率。 隐含波动率分位数排名 历史波动率分位数排名 en 6-15 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 ore 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 ■ 0 ora 1 免费声明：本文所有内得均不符成改造仪、对文中信息的准明情和克题性不作任何保证，仅供学习交流。我受课模或作出的任何放受决策与平企司完美。就仅仅为我 公司所有、未来书面许可。任何扎格和个人不得以世同形式相談、提到发布。如引用、代度、规控班出处为水安和货公司、且 ...

SP主力合约收盘价： 5604.00 | 日期 | 2025/12/25 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5604.00 | 5620.00 | 5620.00 | 5622.00 | 5506.00 | | 折美元价 | 698.96 | 700.03 | 698.78 | 698.09 | 683.23 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.28470% | 0.00000% | -0.03557% | 2.10679% | 0.10909% | | 山东银星基差 | -14 | -30 | -30 | -17 | 19 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | -44 | -55 | -55 | -47 | 29 | 以13%增值税计算 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/26 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the glass and soda ash markets, including price trends, production and sales, inventory changes, and profit margins [2] Group 3: Summary of Glass Market Price Changes - In the glass market, prices of various 5mm large - plate products in different regions showed different trends from December 18 to December 25, 2025. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate of Shahe Safety decreased by 8.0 from 984.0 to 976.0, and the price of 5mm large - plate of Wuhan Changli decreased by 40.0 from 1070.0 to 1030.0 [2] Futures Contract Price Changes - FG05 contract price decreased by 15.0 from 1062.0 to 1047.0, and FG01 contract price decreased by 21.0 from 953.0 to 932.0 during the same period [2] Production and Sales - Shahe's glass production - sales ratio was 102, Hubei's was 97, East China's was 107, and South China's was 108. Shahe factory's production and sales were neutral, and the shipment of Shahe traders at low prices was average, with poor spot - futures shipment. In Hubei, the transaction was also neutral [2] Profit Margins - North China's coal - fired glass profit increased from 69.7 to 84.4, while South China's natural - gas glass profit remained at - 188.1. The 05FG and 01FG盘面 natural - gas profits decreased [2] Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Market Price Changes - Soda ash prices in different regions remained stable from December 18 to December 25, 2025. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda remained at 1140.0, and the price of Huazhong heavy soda remained at 1120.0 [2] Futures Contract Price Changes - SA05 contract price decreased by 9.0 from 1193.0 to 1184.0, SA01 contract price decreased by 22.0 from 1137.0 to 1115.0, and SA09 contract price decreased by 10.0 from 1250.0 to 1240.0 [2] Inventory and Production - The upstream and mid - stream inventories of the soda ash industry were being depleted. Yuanxing's first - phase production capacity increased to 17,000 tons per day, and the second - phase produced qualified products [2] Profit Margins - North China's ammonia - soda process profit increased from - 239.2 to - 226.9, and North China's combined - soda process profit increased from - 348.6 to - 316.9 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1500.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly decrease of 5.00 and an annual increase of 2.74% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 985.00, with a daily decrease of 11.00, a weekly increase of 15.00, a monthly decrease of 5.00 and an annual increase of 4.23% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1340.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 20.00, a monthly decrease of 160.00 and an annual decrease of 8.22% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1600.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly increase of 20.00 and an annual increase of 6.67% [2] - The latest price of Peak Downs is 228.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly increase of 14.00 and an annual increase of 22.50 [2] - The latest price of Goonyella is 229.00, with no daily or weekly changes, a monthly increase of 16.00 and an annual increase of 22.50 [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1127.00, with a daily increase of 3.00, a weekly increase of 17.00, a monthly decrease of 43.00 and an annual decrease of 2.30% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1204.50, with a daily increase of 1.00, a weekly increase of 19.00, a monthly decrease of 31.00 and an annual decrease of 1.63% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1043.00, with a daily increase of 2.50, a weekly increase of 45.50, a monthly decrease of 32.50 and an annual decrease of 0.14% [2] Inventory Information - The total inventory is 4011.40, with a weekly increase of 77.29, a monthly increase of 290.20 and an annual decrease of 15.69% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 282.90, with a weekly increase of 10.13, a monthly increase of 58.98 and an annual decrease of 17.19% [2] - The port inventory is 286.17, with a weekly decrease of 21.33, a monthly decrease of 5.33 and an annual decrease of 40.26% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 804.99, with a weekly increase of 10.34, a monthly increase of 7.91 and an annual increase of 6.06% [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 1036.29, with a weekly decrease of 1.01, a monthly decrease of 1.90 and an annual decrease of 2.44% [2] - The coking plant coke inventory is 85.52, with a weekly decrease of 0.21, a monthly increase of 0.10 and an annual decrease of 0.86% [2] Other Information - The coking capacity utilization rate is 71.66, with a weekly decrease of 0.39, a monthly decrease of 1.29 and an annual decrease of 1.97% [2] - The basis of Futures Contract 05 is -66.31, with a daily increase of 31.48, a weekly increase of 17.48, a monthly decrease of 123.67 and an annual decrease of 53.96 [2] - The basis of Futures Contract 09 is -143.81, with a daily increase of 33.48, a weekly increase of 15.48, a monthly decrease of 135.67 and an annual increase of 0.73 [2] - The basis of Futures Contract 01 is 17.69, with a daily increase of 31.98, a weekly decrease of 11.02, a monthly decrease of 134.17 and an annual decrease of 0.82 [2] - The spread between Futures Contract 05 and 09 is -77.50, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 12.00 and an annual increase of 0.09 [2] - The spread between Futures Contract 09 and 01 is 161.50, with a daily decrease of 1.50, a weekly decrease of 26.50, a monthly increase of 1.50 and an annual decrease of 0.10 [2] - The spread between Futures Contract 01 and 05 is -84.00, with a daily decrease of 0.50, a weekly increase of 28.50, a monthly increase of 10.50 and an annual decrease of 0.23 [2]

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4480.80, 69.74, 2208.00, 1837.00, 58.35, and 12133.00 respectively [1] Inventory and ETF Holdings - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 14038.64, 852.42, and 693.35 respectively, with changes of 0.00, -29.53, and 0.00 [2] - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1068.27 and 16446.97 respectively, with no changes [2] - The latest deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 1 and 2 respectively, with a change of 1.00 for SGE Silver [2] Other Market Indicators - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.91, 1.18, 1.35, 155.72, and 1.91 respectively, with all changes being 0.00 except for a -90.50 change in an unspecified aspect [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily News - Iran's natural gas supply interruption caused Iraq to lose about 4500 megawatts of power - generating capacity due to technical issues and increased domestic energy demand in Iran during winter [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with US envoy Witkoff and Trump's senior advisor Kushner, and the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [4] - The early - batch crude oil quota for 2026 was issued with a year - on - year increase, and the expectation of fuel oil feedstock weakened. The market was worried about Venezuelan fuel oil supply due to US sanctions, and the short - term sentiment was dominant [4] 3.2 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, with a previous value of - 932.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels, with a previous value of 251.1 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels, with a previous value of 483.5 million barrels [4] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves last week was 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [5] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers led to an oil price rebound, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to occur [5] - Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. The oil market de - stocked this week, and on Friday, the calendar spreads of the three major crude oil markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken [5] - The US refinery operating rate was at a high level, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated. The oversupply in the fundamentals was confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation [5] - In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but floating storage is high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. It is believed that the end - point of contract 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year.后续供应预计环比略增加, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, contract 01 is expected to face neutral to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance [3]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes such as a 25 - yuan decrease in Jiangsu spot [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants shut down, ports and inland areas rebounded, basis strengthened slightly, ports destocked for two weeks but floating storage was high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation. November shipments from Iran were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, and other products changed, with daily changes like a 10 - yuan decrease in North China LL [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year, upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around - 200, and domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 75 - yuan increase in East China PP [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, import profit is around - 700, exports are good, and subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 10 - yuan decrease in the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [3].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/26 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/19 -385 4468 95805 45739 -1750.70 -420.54 43.0 49.0 4.73 160400 56450 2025/12/22 -430 5281 95805 48542 -1754.65 -517.00 48.0 51.0 6.58 157750 51750 2025/12/23 -440 4777 95805 49543 -1909.24 -498.41 55.0 54.0 13.16 158575 48875 2025/12/24 -465 5208 95805 52222 -2003.83 -422.80 55.0 54.0 19.69 157025 46525 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 变化 -35 165 0 686 ...