乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/30 | | | 指标 | 5/28 | 6/20 | 6/25 | 6/26 | 6/27 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11150 | 11630 | 11225 | 11195 | 11275 | 80 | -355 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 43664 | 13196 | 7623 | 36383 | 33472 | -2911 | 20276 | | | STET | | | | | | 96846 | -11484 | -9593 | | | | 主力合约成交量 | 168727 | 106439 | 37814 | 108330 | | | | | | | 仓单数量 | 9900 | 6630 | 6630 | 6530 | 7700 | 1170 | 1070 | | | | 虚实比 | 22.05 | તે તે તે આ ગામમ | 5.75 | 27.86 ...

蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/30 民间出口商报告向墨西哥出口销售 民间出口商报告向墨西哥出口销售119,746吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 阿根廷罗萨里奥谷物交易所周五表示，受计划中的关税上调影响，阿根廷出口商宣布 月迄今已出口610万吨大豆及 其行生品，较五年均值水平激增22%。 阿根廷总统JavierMilei领导的政府年初时曾暂时调降大豆出口关税，但该政策将于 月到期，届时大豆关税将从 26%上升至33%，豆油和豆粕关税税率均将由24.5%上调至31%。 年油菜籽种植面积下降 27日（周五），加拿大统计局公布主要大田作物种植面积报告。 大草原地区三省的油菜籽播种面积均缩减。2025年，农民报告种植了2,150万英亩油菜，较上一年下降了2.5%，这 可能是由于土壤湿度和持续的贸易问题等一系列因素造成的。在种植了加拿大一半以上油菜的萨斯喀彻温省，农民报告 种植了1,200万英亩油菜，较2024年下降了0.5%。在阿尔伯塔省，受访者报告称，2025年种植了620万英亩油菜，较上一 年下降了2.8%。而在马尼托巴省，农民报告播种了30 ...

淀粉：近期，供需端仍旧呈现下降态势。短期看，原料价格表现偏强或在未来一段时间继续支撑成品淀粉价格，但是受到行业库存偏高压制， 淀粉价格反弹幅度预计有限。从中长期视角来看，下游仍然处于淡季消费期，消费提货未有好转迹象，使得产业库存趋缓缓慢，仍旧制约淀粉 价格上行空间，等待利润小幅修复后继续空配远月合约。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/06/23 6100 6050 5865 379 417 599 27334 2025/06/24 6090 6040 5860 380 491 673 24762 2025/06/25 6110 6070 5860 353 448 630 24612 2025/06/26 6140 6080 5890 350 579 761 24302 2025/06/27 6150 6090 5890 358 538 721 23992 变化 10 10 0 8 -41 -40 -310 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，受2024年干旱天气影响，巴西25/26榨季第一个月出现了单产和吨甘蔗出糖量下降的情况，不过5月上半月 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/30 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 80110 10134 7.81 三月 79760 9894 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -2612.60 现货出口 1836.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22590 2765 8.17 三月 22345 2765 6.23 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1338.95 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20890 2579 8.10 三月 20480 2579 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.55 -1159.58 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14975 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2723.01 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/06/30 华东 स्क 中部 华南 东北 日期 2025/06/23 | 2254 原点 2019 2193 2167 2169 2025/06/24 2166 2254 2019 2158 2181 2025/06/25 2164 2250 2018 2143 2181 2025/06/26 2164 2249 2015 2138 2180 2025/06/27 |容 2161 ~ 2247 原占 2011 2137 版 d 2180 环比 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 沙钢重三价格 (含税) 镇江鸿泰剪切料价格（不含税） ● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4,200元/吨 3,900 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 长流程日耗 + 2019 ↓ 2020 ↓ 2021 ↓ 2022 ↓ 2023 g ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU07 internal - external spread oscillated at - $5, and the 09 spread oscillated at + $10. There was a large amount of delivery goods in the near - month, maintaining a loose pattern [4]. - The low - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly and oscillated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread oscillating at around $17 [7]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage oscillated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, and floating storage inventory oscillated with low - sulfur floating storage increasing. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [7]. - This week, geopolitical risks were lifted. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, and Egypt's net imports reached a new high. The high - sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Currently, high - sulfur is in the peak power - generation season, the near - month internal - external spread of FU is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $460.60 to $411.99, a change of - $1.97; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from $509.41 to $474.54, a change of $0.38; and other related spreads also had corresponding changes [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - Swap data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $471.10 to $415.91, a change of - $7.34; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from $540.67 to $498.49, a change of $3.37 [2][6]. - Spot data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from $475.90 to $416.77, a change of - $10.95; the FOB VLSFO price increased from $549.45 to $504.02, a change of $2.08 [3]. Domestic FU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed from 3180 to 2864, a change of 1; the price of FU 05 changed from 3100 to 2811, a change of - 1; the price of FU 09 changed from 3385 to 3002, a change of - 17 [3]. Domestic LU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed from 3815 to 3528, a change of 29; the price of LU 05 changed from 3701 to 3434, a change of 14; the price of LU 09 changed from 3968 to 3600, a change of - 23 [4].

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/6/30 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/27 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/26 | | | | | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/26 | | 2025/6/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1117.0 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1007.0 | 1016.0 | 1019.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1104.0 | 1126.0 | 1126.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1065.0 | 1073.0 | 1077.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex trends, with civil gas prices rising first and then falling. The PG futures price fluctuates widely, the basis strengthens, and the spread between months changes little. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, and the profit of PDH production improves slightly. It is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will rise slightly next week, the combustion demand remains weak, and the subsequent price will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data - From June 22 - 27, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products such as South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different trends. For example, South China LPG price changes from 4695 on June 22 to 4710 on June 27, with a daily change of - 45 on the 27th. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4590. The 08 - 09 spread of PG is 94, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1]. Weekly View - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. The market is bullish at the beginning of the week due to geopolitical tensions, but then is under pressure as overall supply is high, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle East situation leads to a sharp drop in oil prices. The basis of PG strengthens to 345. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, the profit of PDH spot production improves, and the profit calculated by paper goods rises. The profit of alkylation oil increases significantly, the profit of MTBE gas - fraction etherification remains basically flat, and the profit of isomerization etherification rises. In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increase due to more arrivals, factory inventories increase slightly with regional differentiation (East China destocks, South China and Shandong build up inventories), and external sales increase. The operating rate of PDH rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and the operating rate of alkylation is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), with MTBE production basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 (+0) [1].

芳烃橡胶早报 M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/06/23 850 535 4597 4613 4600 684 -612 67.2 71.3 62.2 65 2025/06/24 850 517 4480 4495 4483 560 -726 67.2 71.3 62.2 65 2025/06/25 850 515 4398 4415 4400 478 -808 67.2 71.3 62.2 65 2025/06/26 850 511 4379 4395 4385 459 -824 67.2 71.3 62.2 65 2025/06/27 850 508 4346 4360 4347 417 -858 67.2 71.3 62.2 65 变化 0 -3 -33 -35 -38.00 -41.80 -34 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对09（+70）附近。 MEG装置变化 浙石化80万吨检修。 周度观点 近端国内油制 ...

s 疯皮期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/30 | | 指标 | 5/29 | 6/19 | 6/25 | 6/26 | 6/27 | 日度变化 | 間度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3514 | 3738 | 3574 | 3563 | 3561 | -2 | -177 | | | BU06 | 3507 | 3448 | 3280 | 3274 | 3274 | 0 | -174 | | | BU09 | 3483 | 3738 | 3574 | 3563 | 3561 | -2 | -177 | | | BU12 | 3308 | 3577 | 3405 | 3396 | 3383 | -13 | -194 | | 播 1 | BU03 | 3266 | 3479 | 3321 | 3321 | 3326 | 5 | -153 | | | 成交量 | 510411 | 412737 | 381167 | 319183 | 228837 | -90346 | -183900 ...