2025年3月11日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Leapmotor (9863 HK) 竞争性定价 B10 在2024年第四季度实现强劲的 利润率。 Leapmotor 推出了其 B10 3月10日的EV发布，预售价范围在人民币109,800-1 39,800。具备激光雷达和城市NOA功能型号的价格低至人民币129,800。我们 认为这样的价格具有竞争力。考虑到Leapmotor利用Qualcomm 8650芯片进行 自主研发的自动驾驶，我们认为许多投资者仍然低估了Leapmotor的研发能力 。因此，我们将其在FY25E年的B系列销量上调25,000单位。我们还将其在FY2 5E年的总销量上调30,000单位至0.48mn单位。 在FY25E实现可能的盈亏平衡，得益于规模经济的扩大和强劲的2024年第 四季度利润率。 Leapmotor的2024年第四季度毛利率环比上升5.2个百分点至1 3.3%，符合其盈利预警。其2024年第四季度收入环比增长37%至人民币135亿 元，净利润为人民币8100万元，甚至强于预期。 我们之前的预测 我们预计， 凭借Leap 3.5架构在降低成本方面的帮 ...

11 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Leapmotor (9863 HK) Competitive pricing for B10 with strong 4Q24 margins Maintain BUY. Leapmotor's aggressive pre-sale price for its new B10 EV, along with its in-house autonomous driving (AD) and chassis capabilities, gives us more confidence about its sales. We revise up its FY25E sales volume by 7% to 0.48mn units. We also project a minimal net loss in FY25E and a net profit of RMB1.26bn in FY26E with more new A and D series ...

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly below the market expectation of 160,000[1] - Private sector employment rebounded significantly, increasing from 81,000 in January to 140,000 in February[1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, with a notable increase in the broader U6 unemployment rate[1] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly earnings growth decreased from 0.48% in January to 0.28% in February, aligning with market expectations[1] - Year-on-year wage growth fell to 4.02%, indicating a trend of moderate wage growth slowdown[1] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a neutral policy stance in the short term, with potential pauses in rate cuts during March, May, and June[1] - There is an increased likelihood of a rate cut in September or December, contingent on economic slowdown due to Trump's policies[1] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%, with participation among those aged 55 and older dropping to a historical low of 38.1%[1] - The broader U6 unemployment rate rose from 7.5% to 8%, primarily due to an increase in part-time employment[1]

Strategy Insights - Short-term risk appetite is expected to decline due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [2][4][19] - The emergence of DeepSeek is anticipated to increase the demand for computing power, leading to significant growth in usage due to reduced resource costs [1][2] Macro Economic Overview - China's economy shows signs of localized improvement, with a rebound in real estate, durable consumption, and commodity exports [2][13] - The GDP growth rate is projected to be slightly above 5% in the first half of the year, supported by improved consumer sentiment [13][18] Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to outperform the market, driven by a recovery in global smartphone and PC demand, AI innovations, and increased capital expenditure from major players [2][4] - Key investment themes include the acceleration of AI applications, demand for AI servers, and advancements in smart driving technologies [2][4] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: AI, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies [2][4] - The introduction of low-cost AI models is expected to boost domestic demand for computing power and enhance investment returns in AI [2][4] Internet Sector - The market is beginning to reassess the growth potential of internet companies, focusing on their technology attributes rather than just consumption characteristics [4] - Key stocks to watch include Trip.com, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Tencent, which are expected to benefit from AI-related growth catalysts [4][11] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is poised for valuation recovery in 2025, supported by improved domestic drug pricing policies and macroeconomic conditions [2][4] - Recommended stocks include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and WuXi AppTec, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [4][11] Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods sector is expected to remain resilient, with companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage showing strong performance [4][11] - The beauty and skincare sector is also seeing growth, with domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu gaining market share [4][11] Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle market is recovering, with sales expected to rise significantly in the coming months [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Geely and XPeng Motors, which are well-positioned to capitalize on technological advancements [5][11] Real Estate and Property Management - The real estate sector shows optimism, with contract sales expected to perform better than previously anticipated [5][11] - Key players to watch include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [5][11] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see a return to normal growth rates, with significant increases in new business value anticipated for major insurers [5][11] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and AIA Group, which are expected to benefit from favorable market dynamics [5][11] Capital Goods - The capital goods sector is expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives, particularly in the construction machinery segment [5][11] - Recommended stocks include Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry, which are well-positioned for growth [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, with a recommendation to increase allocation to quality stocks within the sector due to a high probability of positive performance in Q2 2025 [1][21]. Core Insights - The report indicates a ~70% probability that the real estate sector will be positively impacted in Q2 2025, driven by favorable sales data and potential policy support [1][21]. - Key factors contributing to the optimistic outlook include improved sentiment in the market, proactive regulatory measures, and a recovering financing environment [20][21]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales data for January and February showed stability, with new home transaction area in 30 cities increasing by 1% year-on-year, and second-hand home transactions in 16 cities rising by 39% year-on-year [2][7][8]. - The new home subscription index has been rising since the Lunar New Year, indicating a potential increase in sales for March [15][20]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures in maintaining buyer confidence, especially in light of potential seasonal sales declines in Q2 [20][21]. - The analysis suggests that the likelihood of policy intervention is high if sales decline exceeds expectations, which could further support the market [22][25]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on quality stocks that are likely to benefit from the recovery in the real estate market, including companies like Beike (BEKE US), China Resources Land (1109 HK), and Longfor Group (960 HK) [29][30]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and those in property management services as potential beneficiaries in the current market environment [29][30].

Macro Economic Insights - China's economic activity shows signs of recovery, with housing sales and durable consumption rebounding, leading to a GDP growth forecast slightly above 5% for the first half of 2025[13] - High-frequency economic activity index increased from 0.94 in Q3 2024 to approximately 1.05 in Q4 2024, indicating a positive trend[13] - In January-February 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 3% year-on-year, contrasting with a 11.5% increase in Q4 2024[14] Technology Sector Outlook - The DeepSeek trend is expected to increase demand for computing power, benefiting the computing industry chain, including chip design and manufacturing[1] - Recommendations include companies like Shengyi Technology (生益科技, 600183 CH) and Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创, 300308 CH) within the computing power supply chain[1] - AI server demand is projected to grow significantly, with major North American and domestic companies increasing capital expenditures for 2025[2] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic, with three main investment themes: AI, self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, and high dividend defensive strategies[2] - The introduction of low-cost AI models is expected to drive domestic computing power demand significantly, benefiting companies like Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创, 300308 CH) and Northern Huachuang (北方华创, 002371 CH)[2] Internet and Software Services - The market is reassessing the growth potential of internet companies, focusing on their technology attributes rather than just consumer aspects[4] - Companies like Kuaishou (快手, 1024 HK) and Alibaba (BABA US) are expected to benefit from AI-related growth catalysts[4] Consumer Sector - The essential consumer sector is expected to remain resilient, with companies like Nongfu Spring (农夫山泉, 9633 HK) and China Resources Beverage (华润饮料, 2460 HK) recommended for investment due to their defensive nature[4] - The optional consumer sector shows signs of improvement, with brands like Anta (安踏, 2020 HK) and Luckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡, LKNCY US) recommended for potential growth[5] Insurance Sector - The new business value (NBV) for insurance companies is expected to return to normal growth rates, with significant increases projected for companies like New China Life (新华, 69%) and China Pacific Insurance (太保, 36%) in 2025[6] - The insurance sector is anticipated to benefit from a stable investment environment and improved profitability in the coming year[6] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with new home sales contracts declining by only 6% year-on-year, better than the expected 10%[6] - The market sentiment is improving, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing market confidence and boosting sales[6]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI rose from 52.8 in January to 53.5 in February, exceeding market expectations of 52.5, indicating a faster expansion in the services sector[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 in January to 50.3 in February, below the expected 50.8, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing activity[2] Inflation and Employment - The price index for services increased from 60.4 to 62.6, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in core services[2] - The employment index in the services sector rose from 52.3 to 53.9, although key sectors like healthcare showed contraction in February[2] Market Reactions and Predictions - The significant decline in U.S. stock markets signals potential economic slowdown, prompting concerns over the impact of Trump's policies on the economy[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in March, May, and June, with a potential cut in September or December[1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline, with energy, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors falling, while materials, consumer staples, and information technology sectors rose[1] - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with significant gains in semiconductor, robotics, military, and healthcare IT sectors, while coal, food, and liquor sectors declined[1] Trade War Impact - The U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on China, increasing risk aversion and expectations that tensions will accelerate China's tech self-sufficiency, with reports of guidance to promote the use of open-source chips[1] - The trade war is expected to weaken freight and commodity demand, leading to declines in shipping and fuel oil futures[1] European Market Reaction - European stocks fell sharply due to concerns over potential tariffs on the EU, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors[1] - The trade war is anticipated to weaken Europe's economic growth outlook, with a drop in European bond yields and defensive sectors like food and utilities performing well[1] U.S. Market Trends - U.S. stocks continued to decline, particularly in industrial and consumer staples sectors sensitive to trade tensions and supply chain costs[1] - The market's expectation for a 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has expanded, although the New York Fed President indicated no immediate need for policy adjustment[1] Commodity Prices - Oil prices are on a downward trend due to weakened demand outlook from the trade war, OPEC+ production increase plans, and geopolitical developments involving Ukraine[1] - Trade tensions have boosted gold prices while negatively impacting copper prices due to a dimmed global economic outlook[1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for BYD Company Limited Core Insights - BYD is a pioneer and leader in the global electric vehicle industry, leveraging a strong R&D team of 110,000 engineers to develop innovative and disruptive technologies, establishing a sustainable competitive advantage in electric, intelligent, high-end, and international aspects of the automotive industry [2] - The recent H-share placement involved the issuance of 129,800,000 new shares at a price of HKD 335.2 per share, raising approximately HKD 43.509 billion, marking the largest placement in the Hong Kong capital market since 2022 [1][2] Summary by Sections Transaction Overview - On March 3, 2025, BYD completed a new H-share placement, with a total issuance of 129,800,000 shares at a price of HKD 335.2, representing a discount of about 7.8% from the closing price on the same day, totaling HKD 43.509 billion [1] Company Profile - BYD has a robust accumulation of core technologies in the electric vehicle sector and continues to push forward with original and disruptive technologies, enhancing its long-term competitive edge [2] - The collaboration with CMB International in this transaction highlights the ongoing support for BYD's refinancing efforts in the capital market, reinforcing CMB International's commitment to the long-term development of China's new energy and high-tech industries [2]

中国能源 威廉·冯，CFA (852) 3900 0826 wayne fung@cmbi.com.hk 2025年3月3日 中国民生银行国际 | 全球市场 | 股权研究 | 覆盖终止 联合能源（467 HK） 终止覆盖 鉴于资源分配更加合理，我们终止了对联合能源的覆盖。所有之前的推荐自覆 盖终止之日起不再有效。 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露，更多来自彭博社的报告：响应CMBR或http://www.cm bi.com.hk 1 2025年3月3日 披露与免责声明 分析师认证 该研究报告内容（全部或部分）的主要研究员声明，关于本报告中所涵盖的证券或发行人：（1）所表达的所有观点准确反映了其个人对该证券或发行人的看法 ；并且（2）其薪酬的任何部分均未、现在或将来直接或间接与其在本报告中表达的特定观点相关。 此外，分析师确认，分析师及其关联人（根据香港证券及期货事务监察委员会发布的《行为守则》定义）在以下方面没有参与或交易本研究报告涵盖的股票： （1）在报告发布前30个日历日内未曾买卖本报告涵盖的股票；（2）在报告发布后3个营业日内不会买卖本报告涵盖的股票；（3）未担任本报告涵盖的任何香 港上市公司的董事 ...