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固定收益部市场日报-20250730
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 07:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating on the Adani complex [11] Core Viewpoints - The expectations of further tender offers from Adani Ports should support the near - term performance of ADSEZs, but the gradual resumption of funding access and potential for more tender offers are fairly priced, so a neutral stance is maintained on the Adani complex [10][11] Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - In KR, HYNMTR/LGENSO Float 30s were 1 - 3bps tighter; in Chinese IGs, BABA 31/MEITUA 30 widened 1bp, BABA 47 - 61s were 1.0 - 1.5pts higher [1] - In financials, MIZUHO/SUMIBK Float 30 - 31s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, HSBC/STANLN Float 30 - 31s were under small selling and closed unchanged to 1bp wider [1] - In insurance, SHIKON/NSINTW 34 - 35s were 1 - 2bps tighter on PB buying, CATLIF 34 widened 1bp on small selling [1] - In HK, DAHSIN 33/SHCMBK 33/BNKEA 34 were 5 - 11bps tighter, LASUDE 26 was 1.8pts higher; REGH 6.5/HYSAN 7.2 Perps lowered 0.6 - 0.9pt [1] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s and ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.1 - 0.6pt lower, ROADKD Perps were 0.1 - 0.2pt higher [1] - In SE Asia, VLLPM 29 rebounded 2.1pts, closed 0.9pt higher WTD [1] Morning Updates - ZHOSHK 28 tightened another 8bps; LGENSO 27 - 35s tightened 8 - 11bps after media reported LG Energy's contract with Tesla [2] - SHIKON/NSINTW 34 - 35s widened 1 - 2bps [2] - ADSEZ: USD438mn validly tendered as of the early tender deadline, ADSEZ 27 - 41s up 0.2 - 0.6pts [2][3] - LIFUNG priced 3.5NC2 USD300mn bond at 98.89 to yield 8.75%, LIFUNG 29 was 0.5pt higher from RO at 98.89 [2] CNH Space - New CNH CCAMCL 2.35 29/CCAMCL 2.43 30 were 0.2 - 0.6pts lower from ROs at par; new CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CHMEDA 30/35 were under better selling and closed 0.1 - 0.6pt lower [4] - KCGZIG priced 3yr CNH1.4bn bond at par to yield 2.65% (IPT at 3.3% area); there were two - way interests on CNH names LUOYNG 7 26s/QHCTJS 7 28s and USD new issues BINHCO 4.95 28s/DAZAKI 7 28s [4] - SPICPD Perp was up 0.1pt [4] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 up 2.1pts, LASUDE 5 07/28/26 up 1.8pts, BABA 5 5/8 11/26/54 up 1.5pts [5] - Top Underperformers: REGH 6 1/2 PERP down 0.9pt, ROADKG 6 03/04/29 down 0.6pt, ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 down 0.6pt [5] Macro News Recap - S&P (-0.30%), Dow (-0.46%) and Nasdaq (-0.38%) were lower on Tuesday; US and China will continue talks on tariff truce extension [6] - US Jul'25 CB Consumer Confidence was 97.2, higher than the market expectation of 95.9; US Jun'25 JOLTS Job Openings was 7.437mn, lower than the market expectation of 7.510mn [6] - UST yield was lower on Tuesday, 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.86%/3.90%/4.34%/4.86% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Adani Ports announced early tender offer results as of the early deadline; ADSEZ 4 07/30/27 was oversubscribed and no more validly tendered bonds after the early deadline will be accepted [7] - The tender offers will expire on 13 Aug'25 5pm EDT [7] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Chengdu Xisheng Investment Group issued 92.5mn USD 3 - yr bond at 4.95%; China CITIC Bank London Branch issued 300mn USD 3 - yr bond at SOFR + 50; Li & Fung issued 300mn USD 3.5NC2 bond at 8.75% [14] - Pipeline: No new issues pipeline today [15] News and Market Color - 93 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB51bn; month - to - date, 1,971 credit bonds were issued with RMB2,075bn raised, a 13.8% yoy increase [16] - Adani Green's 2,200MW pumped hydro - storage power projects were scrapped at its request; Alibaba inks AI strategic partnership with Standard Chartered Bank [16] Company - Specific News - SK Hynix raises capex for high - bandwidth memory facility by 32% to KRW29tn (cUSD21bn) [19] - MIND ID 1Q25 revenue rises 74.6% yoy to IDR44.2tn (cUSD2.7bn) [19] - Lai Sun Development seeks to sell 50% stake in CCB Tower in Hong Kong [19] - LG Innotek to acquire stake in US tech firm Aeva for AI strategic collaboration [19] - Logan considers proposing a deeper haircut under offshore debt restructuring [19] - Nissan to consolidate Mexico production in one plant [19] - South Korean president blasts POSCO unit over fatal workplace accidents [19] - SK On plans to raise KRW2tn (cUSD1.4bn) through stock price return swap [19] - San Miguel Corp completed the redemption of SMCPM 5.5 Perp [19] - SoftBank - backed eyewear chain filed for up to USD923mn India IPO [19] - Tata Motors nears USD4.5bn acquisition of Iveco [19] - Vedanta may not get PCF providers' consent to prepay facility on 8 Aug'25 [19]
每日投资策略-20250730
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 02:29
Core Insights - The report highlights the mixed performance of the Chinese stock market, with A-shares showing potential for greater rebound compared to Hong Kong stocks due to economic rebalancing policies [2] - The report emphasizes the strong growth in the CDMO sector driven by robust demand for commercial production in the pharmaceutical market post-COVID-19 [4] - The report indicates that WuXi AppTec (药明康德) has shown impressive revenue growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with a 20.6% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [3][4] Industry Analysis - The WAIC conference showcased trends in technology innovation, with companies like Tencent and JD.com accelerating their AI applications and open-source ecosystems [3] - The report notes that the demand for AI applications, particularly in the fields of robotics and autonomous driving, is expected to support the growth of cloud services in the internet sector [3] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted with Samsung's significant investment in the U.S. for advanced chip packaging, which could challenge TSMC's dominance [2] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec's TIDES revenue surged by 141.6% year-on-year, prompting management to raise the full-year revenue growth forecast from 60% to 80% [4][5] - The company has seen a 37.2% year-on-year increase in its order backlog, particularly in the TIDES business, indicating strong future demand [5] - WuXi AppTec's management has adjusted its full-year guidance, expecting a 13-17% growth in continuous operating revenue, reflecting strong business execution [3][6]
WAIC大会:聚焦科技创新、普惠、协同共治
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 01:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [56]. Core Insights - The WAIC conference highlighted key trends in technology innovation, emphasizing the acceleration of intelligent agent applications by companies like Tencent and JD.com, the rapid development of open-source ecosystems supporting AI, and the focus on world models and embodied intelligence [5][4]. - The report recommends companies with strong technological capabilities and broad application scenarios, including Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng, as they are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for large model applications [5][4]. Summary by Sections AI Development and Applications - Tencent has launched over 10 intelligent agents across various verticals, while JD.com has open-sourced its JoyAgent intelligent agent [5][4]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has surpassed 400 million downloads, with over 140,000 derivative models created [5][4]. - The report notes that Tencent's mixed 3D world model 1.0 significantly simplifies the 3D scene construction process, enhancing efficiency in game development and digital content creation [9][4]. Autonomous Driving - The report identifies a dual inflection point in the autonomous driving sector, with improved regulatory environments and the introduction of Tesla's advanced Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in China expected to boost competition [4][5]. - The penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving vehicles in China is estimated to be around 30-35%, with projections indicating it could exceed 50% by 2026 [4][5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with robust technological foundations and diverse application scenarios, specifically highlighting Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng [5][4]. - The anticipated growth in cloud business driven by the increasing demand for large model applications is expected to support the stock performance of these companies [5][4].
固定收益部市场日报-20250729
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-29 07:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asian IGs tightened by 1 - 3bps this morning, indicating a positive trend in the Asian investment - grade bond market [3] - Li & Fung's tender offer and new issue are beneficial to perp holders, and the company plans to reduce debt and adjust its balance sheet [7][8][9] - Zhongsheng's early redemption of ZHOSHK 3 01/13/26 reflects sufficient liquidity, and ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 remains a good shorter - dated carry play [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened by 2 - 5bps; in Chinese IGs, BABA 31/MEITUA 30 tightened 1bp, ZHOSHK 26 - 28s were unchanged to 1bp tighter [1] - In financials, CSILTD priced a 3yr floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60; SUMIBK/STANLN Float 28 - 31s tightened 1 - 3bps [1] - In insurance, SHIKON 35 tightened 1bp, NSINTW 34 widened 1bp; ASAMLI Perps/MYLIFE 55s were up 0.1pt [1] - In AT1s, HSBC 6.95/LLOYDS 8/BACR 7.625 Perps were 0.2 - 0.4pt higher; in HK, BNKEA/DAHSIN/NANYAN 31 - 34s tightened 1 - 3bps [1] - In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26 was down 0.7pt; RAODKG 28 - 30s/Perps were 0.2pt lower to 0.3pt higher [1] - Outside properties, EHICAR 26 - 27s were 1.2 - 1.4pts higher; in SE Asia, GLPSP 28/Perps were 0.8 - 1.6pts higher [1] - VEDLN 28 - 33s were up 0.1 - 0.3pt; VLLPM 29 lowered 1.2pts; PTTEPT/PTTTB 42s were 0.6pt lower [1] - In CNH space, CCAMCL priced 3.5yr and 5yr CNH bonds at 2.35% and 2.43% respectively; onshore AAA guaranteed CNH LGFVs tightened 20 - 50bps [2] - BADNHI 6.9 28s/ZBZCHD 6.9 28s were 0.5 - 2.7pts higher; in SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt [4] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included KAFEDI 6 1/2 06/04/28 with a price of 96.3 and a change of 2.7, GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP with a price of 55.3 and a change of 1.6 [5] - Top underperformers included TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 with a price of 70.4 and a change of - 1.2, VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 with a price of 64.5 and a change of - 1.2 [5] Marco News Recap - On Monday, S&P was up 0.02%, Dow was down 0.14%, and Nasdaq was up 0.33%; long - term UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.96%/4.42%/4.96% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp at USD55, with a maximum acceptance amount of USD50mn, funded by a new 3.5NC2 USD bond [7] - The FV of the new LIFUNG 29 is expected to be mid - 8% vs IPT at 9% [7] - The tender offer is seen as a de facto voluntary partial exchange beneficial to perp holders [8] - With new issuance proceeds and cash on hand, Li & Fung plans to redeem bonds, repay loans, and adjust its balance sheet [9] - Zhongsheng announced to make - whole ZHOSHK 3 01/13/26 on 27 Aug'25, reflecting sufficient liquidity [14] - ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 is considered a good shorter - dated carry play, and a buy recommendation is maintained [14] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today; in the pipeline, Chengdu Xisheng Investment Group plans a 3yr issue, China CITIC Bank London Branch plans a 3yr issue of up to USD300mn, and Li & Fung plans a 3.5NC2 issue [18] News and Market Color - 84 credit bonds were issued yesterday onshore with an amount of RMB92bn; month - to - date, 1,881 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB2,024bn, a 15.2% yoy increase [21] - Adani Green Energy 1Q26 total revenue rose 36% yoy to INR38bn (cUSD439.2mn) [21] - Diamond Power won an INR13.5bn (cUSD155.6mn) order from Adani Energy Solutions [21] - China Cinda AMC issued 3.5y CNH3bn bonds at 2.35% and 5yr CNH2.3bn bonds at 2.43% [21] - Lippo Cikarang's 1H25 presales reached 48% of FY25 target [21] - SJM Holdings agreed to buy a property in Zhuhai for RMB724.2mn (cUSD101.1mn) [21]
每日投资策略-20250729
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-29 02:25
Global Market Overview - The Chinese stock market is experiencing an upward trend, with innovative pharmaceuticals leading the charge. Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has secured a $500 million upfront payment and potential orders worth $12 billion from foreign pharmaceutical companies [2] - Strong performance in computing hardware stocks, particularly in CPO and PCB sectors. Insurance stocks are also performing well, with Xinhua Insurance reaching a historical high [2] - Macau's satellite casinos are set to cease operations by the end of the year, with two being acquired by Aobo Holdings, signaling a shift in the gaming industry [2] - Recent trading restrictions have led to significant declines in coking coal and other cyclical stocks, while the yield on RMB government bonds has decreased slightly [2] Economic Policies and Impacts - The Chinese government is implementing economic rebalancing policies, including annual childcare subsidies of 3,600 yuan for children aged 0-3, which will cost approximately 100 billion yuan. Additionally, free preschool education will be gradually introduced, costing around 400 billion yuan [2] - These policies are expected to boost household consumption by approximately 0.6% and nominal GDP by about 0.25% [2] - The market regulatory authority is taking steps to address low-quality competition among enterprises and enhance safety regulations for food, pharmaceuticals, and industrial products [2] International Market Trends - European stock markets have declined, although the semiconductor sector has seen gains. A trade agreement between the US and Europe has been reached, but investors perceive it as more beneficial to the US [2] - In the US, stock performance is mixed, with energy, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors rising, while real estate, materials, and utilities are down. Nvidia shares have rebounded nearly 2%, contributing to new highs for the stock index [2] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, focusing on future profit guidance and AI capital expenditure [2] Market Indicators - US Treasury yields have slightly increased, and the dollar index has surged. Oil prices have rebounded to a two-week high amid threats of sanctions against Russia by Trump [2] - Gold prices have experienced a pullback [2]
固定收益部市场日报-20250728
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-28 07:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asia IGs tightened 1 - 3bps this morning, and the credit profile of Vedanta Resources (VRL) continues to improve, with the recommendation to buy VEDLN 10.875 09/17/29 and change the recommendation on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 from neutral to buy [3][7][8] - Onshore primary issuances showed a 15% yoy increase in the amount of credit bonds issued month - to - date [17] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In KR, LGENSO 26 - 35s tightened 1 - 4bps, and its 2Q25 operating profit rose 31% qoq from 1Q25; HYUELE 26 - 33s were unchanged [1] - In insurance, CATLIF 34/39 tightened 1 - 2bps; MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54s and ASAMLI Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt [1] - In JP, NSANY 26 - 30s were unchanged to 1.0pt higher [1] - In HK, NWDEVL Perps/27 - 31s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; HYSAN Perps were 0.4 - 0.8pt higher; LASUDE 26 rose 0.7pt; LIFUNG Perp lowered 0.8pt, closed 2.8pts higher WoW [1] - In Chinese properties, DALWAN 26 was up 0.8pt; ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 1.3pts lower, closed 3.8 - 5.6pts lower WoW; ROADKG Perps were 0.1pt higher, closed unchanged to 0.1pt lower WoW [1] - Outside properties, EHICAR 26 - 27s were up 0.4 - 0.9pt; WESCHI 26 was up 0.3pt, closed 4.1pts higher WoW; FOSUNI 25 - 27s lowered 0.1 - 0.5pt [1] - In SE Asia, GLPSP Perps/28 were up 0.4 - 1.7pts, closed 1.2 - 2.5pts higher WoW; VLLPM 29 was up 0.8pt; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher [1] - In CNH space, the new CNH TEMASE 30/35/55 and CNH CHMEDA 30/35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower [2] - In LGFVs, BINHCO priced 3yr bond at par to yield 4.95% (IPT at 5.8% area); DAZAKI priced 3yr bond at par to yield 7% (IPT at 7% area); SCDFGU priced 3yr bond at par to yield 6.8% (IPT at 6.8% area) [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: GLPSP 4.6 PERP rose 1.7pts to 51.2; GLPSP 4 1/2 PERP rose 1.4pts to 53.8; TSIVMG 1.55 12/17/29 rose 1.4pts to 71.5; NSANY 4.81 09/17/30 rose 1.0pts to 92.5; NSANY 7 3/4 07/17/32 rose 1.0pts to 102.4 [5] - Top Underperformers: ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 dropped 1.3pts to 21.3; LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP dropped 0.8pts to 50.7; ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 dropped 0.7pts to 23.0; ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 dropped 0.6pts to 24.3; FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 dropped 0.5pts to 100.0 [5] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.40%), Dow (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.24%) were higher on last Friday [6] - The EU reached a tariff deal with the US, facing 15% tariffs on most of its exports [6] - The US Jun'25 Durable Goods Orders was - 9.3% mom, compared to the market expectation of - 10.4% [6] - UST yield was lower on last Friday, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.95%/4.40%/4.92% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Vedanta Resources will prepay the remaining USD550mn of its PCF in Aug'25, funded by bank facilities with lower interest costs [7] - VRL may consider a buyback of its USD bonds after PCF refinancing and demerger [7] - The credit profile of VRL continues to improve, with lengthened debt maturity and lowered funding costs [8] - The performance of VEDLNs may be supported by potential early redemptions [8] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Dazhou Kaisheng Construction issued 70mn USD 3 - yr bond at 7.0% yield; Sichuan Zigong Huidong Development issued 69.5mn USD 3 - yr bond at 6.8% yield; Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group issued 244mn USD 3 - yr bond at 4.95% yield [12] - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline today [13] News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 77 credit bonds were issued last Friday with an amount of RMB84bn; month - to - date, 1,797 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,930bn, a 15% yoy increase [17] - Macau visitors climbed 15% yoy in 1H25 with a jump in same - day travelers [17] - Alibaba halves prices of cutting - edge AI model and a senior executive is accused of taking USD5.6mn in bribes [17] - First Pacific's Philippine power arm expects higher FY25 earnings [17] - Fantasia further delays offshore debt restructuring closing to 1 Aug'25 [17] - Li & Fung gives tender priority to bondholders who also subscribe to new bonds [17] - China Vanke sells a project for RMB1.4bn (cUSD195mn) [17]
招银国际每日投资策略-20250728
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-28 03:18
Company Analysis - Sanofi has entered a global licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody 707, which includes an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion, and a double-digit sales revenue share [2] - Pfizer will subscribe to 31,142,500 shares of Sanofi at HKD 25.2 per share, totaling approximately HKD 785 million (around $100 million) [2] - The agreement grants Pfizer an option for rights in China, which could yield an additional $150 million if exercised [2] Clinical Development Insights - The 707 antibody is noted for its differentiated structure, which may provide advantages in efficacy and safety compared to similar PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies [5] - Pfizer's management expressed confidence in the clinical data for 707, indicating its potential as a foundational treatment option for multiple indications [5][6] - The Phase II clinical data presented at ASCO showed a 64.7% confirmed overall response rate (cORR) in patients with PD-L1+ NSCLC [5] Market Outlook - Pfizer plans to accelerate the global Phase III clinical development of 707, exploring its use as a monotherapy and in combination with chemotherapy and ADCs [6] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanofi with a target price of HKD 37.67, reflecting an upward adjustment in sales expectations due to Pfizer's rapid development plans [6] Other Company Insights - Thermo Fisher Scientific reported a 3.0% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, with adjusted EPS declining by 0.2% [7] - The company has raised its full-year guidance, expecting revenue growth between 1.7% and 3.1% [7][8] - Zhejiang Dingli's Q2 2025 net profit increased by 19% year-over-year, primarily driven by foreign exchange gains [8]
固定收益部市场日报-20250725
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-25 06:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Maintain a buy recommendation for HYUELEs due to SK Hynix's resilience against trade - wars, strong global market position, solid operating cash flow, and a more balanced risk - return profile [2][6] - Expect SK Hynix's revenue and operating profit growth momentum to continue in 2025, supported by strong demand for memory used in AI services [11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In Chinese IGs, TENCNT 30/BABA 31 tightened 1bp, MEITUA 30 widened 1bp, ZHOSHK 28 tightened 5bps [1] - In financials, CMINLE/CSILTD/BCLMHK Float 27 - 30s were unchanged to 2bps tighter, SUMIBK/MIZUHO 30 - 31s were 1 - 2bps tighter, BBLTB 36 - 40s closed 1 - 3bps tighter [1] - In insurance, CATLIF 34 tightened 1bp, NSINTW 34 widened 1bp, MYLIFE/NIPLIF 55s were up 0.1pt [1] - In AT1s, BNP 7.75/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.4pt, EFGBNK 5.5/INTNED 4.25 Perps were up 0.4 - 0.6pt [1] - In HK, DAHSIN/BNKEA 32 - 34s were 1 - 2bps tighter, REGH 6.5 Perp/HYSAN 4.1 Perp/LASUDE 26 lowered 0.5 - 0.9pt [1] - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 2.3pts lower, ROADKG Perps were unchanged. Road King launched a holder identification for all of its three perps [1] - Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was 1.7pts higher following 1H25 positive profit alert, FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.1 - 0.5pt after Fosun announced early redemption [1] - In SEA, GLPSP Perps were up 0.4 - 0.5pt, VLLPM 29 was down 0.7pt [1] - In CNH space, new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.3pt higher; new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were 0.2 - 0.3pt lower [2] - LGENSO 27 - 35s tightened 1 - 3bps following a 31% qoq rise in 2Q25 operating profit from 1Q25 [2] - HYUELE 1 ½ 01/19/26 and HYUELE 2 ⅜ 01/19/31 were 2 - 5bps tighter post - results announcement, while HYUELE 6 ¼ 01/17/26 and HYUELE 6 ⅜ 01/17/28 were 2 - 5bps wider [2] - ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.2 - 2.3pts lower yesterday and unchanged this morning. Road King and CVC seek full exit from Indonesian toll road business for USD1bn [2] - In SOE perps, CHPWCN Perp was up 0.1pt, SPICPD Perp was down 0.1pt [3] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 price was 92.3 with a change of 1.7; GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 price was 23.2 with a change of 1.3; NSANY 7 3/4 07/17/32 price was 101.4 with a change of 0.7; NSANY 4.81 09/17/30 price was 91.4 with a change of 0.6; EFGBNK 5 1/2 PERP price was 97.2 with a change of 0.6 [4] - Top Underperformers: ROADKG 5.9 09/05/28 price was 24.8 with a change of - 2.3; ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 price was 23.7 with a change of - 2.3; ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 price was 25.1 with a change of - 1.4; ROADKG 6 03/04/29 price was 24.6 with a change of - 1.2; REGH 6 1/2 PERP price was 21.7 with a change of - 0.9 [4] Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P was up 0.07%, Dow was down 0.70%, and Nasdaq was up 0.18%. US Jul'25 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (lower than the market expectation of 52.7), and US Jul'25 S&P Global Services PMI was 55.2 (higher than the market expectation of 53.0) [5] - Trump and Powell clashed at Fed headquarters. UST yield was higher on Thursday, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.91%/3.98%/4.43%/4.96% [5] Desk Analyst Comments - Maintain a buy recommendation for HYUELEs. Prefer HYUELE 1 ½ 01/19/26 and HYUELE 2 ⅜ 01/19/31 for lower cash prices. They were traded at YTM of 4.7%/Z + 34bps and YTM of 4.8%/Z + 117bps respectively, and provide 6 - 30bps yield pick - up over Micron's bonds [6] SK Hynix Business and Financial Analysis - SK Hynix achieved record - high revenue and operating profit in 2Q25, driven by aggressive AI investments from leading tech companies and customers accelerating inventory purchases ahead of tariff policy changes [9] - DRAM bit shipments rose by mid - 20% qoq, ASP increased by a low - single digit qoq. NAND bit shipments surged 70% qoq, but ASP declined by a high single - digit qoq [10] - SK Hynix expects DRAM bit shipments to grow by low - to - mid single digit in 3Q25, and increase in NAND bit shipments to be limited. It shipped the industry's first HBM4 samples in Mar'25 and is optimizing performance with partners [11] - As of Jun'25, cash balance increased by 19% qoq to KRW17.0tn. Capex is expected to be higher than the original plan, especially for HBM - related equipment. M15X fab will open in 4Q25 and start full - scale DRAM production in 2026. Yong - in fab (Phase 1) is on track for completion in 2Q27 [12] - SK Hynix's leverage was lower as of Jun'25. Net debts decreased by 46% qoq to KRW4.9tn. Upcoming USD bond maturities are HYUELE Float 11/17/25 of USD300mn due in Nov'25 and two USD bonds totaling USD1.75bn due Jan'26. It is expected to refinance at reasonable costs [13] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced today - Pipeline issues include Dazhou Kaisheng Construction Development Group (USD, 3yr, 7.0%, Unrated), Sichuan Zigong Huidong Development (USD, 3yr, 6.8%, Unrated), and Tianjin Binhai New Area Construction & Investment Group (USD, 3yr, 5.8%, Baa2/ - / - ) [17] News and Market Color - 134 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB137bn. Month - to - date, 1,722 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,842bn, a 15.8% yoy increase [18] - Adani Enterprises and MetTube partner to build copper tube ecosystem; Adani Energy 1Q26 total EBITDA rises 14.5% yoy to INR20.17bn (cUSD233.5mn) [18] - China Energy Reserve and Chemicals Group adjourns meetings for six bonds due to lack of quorum; Country Garden agrees to key terms with key bank creditors on offshore restructuring [18] - Fosun unit looks to issue RMB1bn yulan bonds by mid - Aug'25; Danantara looks to buy Jiangsu Delong smelter unit in Indonesia through MIND ID [18] - JD.com in advanced talks to buy German retailer Ceconomy for EUR2.2bn (cUSD2.6bn); Mongolian Mining 2Q25 washed coking coal sales drop 25% yoy to 1.74mn tons [18] - Samsung Heavy Industries 1H25 sales rise 6% yoy to KRW5.18tn (cUSD3.76bn); Sands China eyes USD2.7bn annual EBITDA run rate [18] - Sinopec 1H25 oil and gas production rises 2% yoy to 262.81mn barrels of oil equivalent; SoftBank - backed tech startup InMobi plans India IPO at up to USD6bn valuation [18]
每日投资策略-20250725
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-25 02:20
Group 1: 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining) - 中广核矿业预计在2025年上半年将录得约6800万元人民币的净亏损,主要由于国际铀贸易业务的一次性负毛利率和铀现货价格下跌的影响 [1] - 2025年盈利预测已下调47%至2.6亿元人民币,以反映上半年的潜在疲弱业绩 [1] - 尽管短期内面临挑战,但预计下半年将出现复苏,2026年将实现强劲增长,尤其是新定价机制将推动盈利增长 [1] Group 2: 谷歌 (Google) - 谷歌公布2025年第二季度业绩,总收入同比增长14%至964亿美元,净利润同比增长19%至282亿美元,均高于市场预期 [2] - 预计2025年下半年广告收入将面临高基数影响,但谷歌云收入增长预计将保持强劲,资本支出指引上调至850亿美元 [2] - 基于强劲的云业务增长前景,目标价上调至221.0美元 [2] Group 3: ServiceNow - ServiceNow公布2025年第二季度业绩,总营收同比增长22.5%至32.2亿美元,非GAAP运营利润同比增长33%至9.55亿美元,均高于市场预期 [2] - cRPO在固定汇率下同比增长21.5%,超出公司指引200个基点 [2] - 基于强劲的盈利前景和行业估值提升,目标价上调至1,175美元 [2]
固定收益部市场日报-20250724
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-24 07:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including bond price changes, new issuances, and macro - news. It also analyzes the profit situation of WESCHI and gives investment suggestions [1][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, GUOTJU priced a 3 - year floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60 (IPT at SOFR + 115). In KR, spreads of DAESEC/SHINFN/NACF 26 - 30s widened by 1 - 2bps. HYNMTR Float 30 tightened 8bps, and HYNMTR 5.3 29/HYNMTR 3.5 31 tightened 2 - 4bps [1]. - In Chinese IGs, BABA/HAOHUA 28 - 35s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, while MEITUA 30 widened 2bps. In financials, BBLTB/KBANK 31 - 40s tightened 2 - 4bps, and NANYAN/BNKEA 30 - 34s tightened 2 - 3bps [1]. - In insurance, SHIKON/CATLIF 34 - 35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54 - 55s and SUMILF/FUKOKU Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt. In AT1s, NWG 7.3/BNP 7.375/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.8pt [1]. - In HK, AIA/CKHH 30 - 35s tightened 1 - 2bps under buying from PBs. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was 3.1pts higher, and LIFUNG 5.25 08/18/25 was up 0.1pt. Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55 and mandated a 3.5 - year USD bond issuance [1]. - HYSAN/FAEACO Perps were up 0.2 - 0.5pt. LASUDE 26 was up 0.7pt. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been working on a HKD3.5bn 5 - year loan refinancing deal. NWDEVL 27 - 31s/Perps were unchanged to 0.4pt lower [1]. - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.5 - 3.6pts lower, and ROADKG Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was up 0.2pt. FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.3 - 0.5pt. MONMIN 30 was up 0.7pt, closed 2.6pts higher WTD [1]. New Issuances - TEMASE priced 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 1.85%, 2.05%, and 2.55% (IPT at 2.3%, 2.55%, and 3.05%) respectively [2]. - CHMEDA priced 5 - year and 10 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 2% and 2.3% (IPT at 2.55% and 2.85% area) respectively [4]. - Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group issued a 150 - million 3 - year bond at a 6.5% coupon rate, unrated [12]. Morning Updates - This morning, the new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, while TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.5pt higher from ROs at par. The new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. VLLPM 29 was up 0.5pt [3]. - WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 was up 1.0pt this morning post - positive profit alert. HYUELEs were unchanged this morning as SK Hynix 2Q25 EBITDA rose 47% yoy to KRW12.7tn (cUSD9.1bn) [3]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (+0.78%), Dow (+1.14%), and Nasdaq (+0.61%) were higher. Trump said countries will face tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% ahead of an 1 Aug '25 deadline. The US may impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. UST yield was higher on Wednesday, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.88%/3.94%/4.40%/4.95% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - West China Cement (WESCHI) expects the profit attributable to owners to increase 80 - 100% yoy to RMB696 - 774mn in 1H25, driven by overseas cement revenue, mainland China cement sales, property sales profit, and reversal of impairment losses [8]. - WESCHI plans to use proceeds from non - core asset sales to partly repay its WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 due in Jul '26. The company also plans to sell other assets and offshore projects for bond repayment [9]. - Despite potential recovery in the Chinese cement market, caution remains regarding WESCHI's ability to remit cash from African operations. The full and timely repayment of the bond is uncertain. The report maintains a neutral rating on WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 and prefers BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 and EHICARs in the China HY space [10]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 123 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB119bn. Month - to - date, 1,592 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,699bn, a 16.6% yoy increase [14]. - Adani Ports is in the race to set up a logistics park in north India. San Miguel buys a 3.8% stake in First Pacific - owned Meralco for PHP3.9bn (cUSD68.4mn) [14]. - Fosun will early redeem USD178.857mn FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 at 101 on 22 Aug '25. China Hongqiao seeks a USD300mn - equivalent three - year loan [14]. - JD.com will create a virtual restaurant chain. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been seeking an HKD3.5bn loan refinancing deal, but about half of the lenders have yet to commit [14]. - Li & Fung says no covenant restriction on perp refi, and the final plan depends on EBITDA. Rakuten sells JPY bonds for JPY30bn (cUSD204mn) for 5G projects [14]. - Sands China 2Q25 adjusted property EBITDA climbs 0.9% yoy to USD566mn. Viceroy alleges Vedanta's promoters siphon margins from Hindustan Zinc [14]. Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP | 51.4 | 3.1 | ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 | 22.8 | - 3.6 | | NSANY 5 1/4 07/17/29 | 100.9 | 1.1 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 26.5 | - 1.7 | | NWG 7.3 PERP | 102.3 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 25.8 | - 1.7 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 97.4 | 0.7 | GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 | 21.9 | - 0.9 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 52.0 | 0.7 | ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 | 25.9 | - 0.6 | [5]