Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Hou Xiaohai from China Resources Beer marks a significant transition in the company, as he has been a pivotal figure in its growth and strategic direction, particularly in the high-end beer market and the recent foray into the white liquor sector [1][2][17]. Group 1: Resignation Announcement - Hou Xiaohai officially announced his resignation as Executive Director and Chairman of the Board of China Resources Beer, citing a desire to spend more time on personal matters [2]. - Following his resignation, the position of Chairman will be temporarily vacant until a suitable successor is appointed, with current Executive Director and President Zhao Chunwu taking on the responsibilities during the transition [2]. Group 2: Career Background - Hou Xiaohai has worked in the beer industry for over 20 years, with significant contributions to China Resources Beer, which has been a leader in the domestic beer market, focusing on capacity efficiency and high-end transformation [1][3]. - His career trajectory includes experiences in various companies, including a notable tenure at PepsiCo, where he developed key marketing strategies that later influenced China Resources Beer [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Under Hou's leadership, China Resources Beer successfully implemented the "Courage to Explore the World" marketing strategy, which helped the company achieve significant sales milestones, including becoming the top-selling beer brand in China by 2008 [8][9]. - The company has also made strategic moves to enter the white liquor market, with a significant acquisition of a controlling stake in Guizhou Jinsha Liquor, marking a major investment in diversifying its product offerings [16][17]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - China Resources Beer is positioned to capitalize on the growing high-end beer market, with a reported 60% increase in sales for the Heineken brand, indicating strong performance in its premium segment [18]. - The company aims to navigate the challenges in the white liquor sector, addressing inventory and pricing issues while maintaining a focus on high-quality development and consumer engagement [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer with a target price of HKD 33.69 based on a projected 19 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][10][6]. Core Views - The current consumption recovery has led to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025. The expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be CNY 1.62, CNY 1.75, and CNY 1.86 respectively, down from the previous forecast of CNY 2.18 for 2025 [4][10]. - The "Su Chao" phenomenon is significantly stimulating beer demand, particularly benefiting China Resources Beer as a market leader in Jiangsu province. The report highlights a nearly 90% month-on-month increase in beer transaction volume in Jiangsu since the start of the "Su Chao" event [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue strong growth in mid-to-high-end products, with Heineken brand sales increasing by 20% in the first five months of the year [9][10]. - The diversification of sales channels, particularly through instant retail partnerships, is seen as a key growth driver for the company [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2023 is CNY 38,932 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.40%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to CNY 38,635 million, followed by a recovery to CNY 39,835 million in 2025 [5][13]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 4,427 million in 2023 to CNY 6,232 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.96% [5][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be CNY 5,153 million in 2023, with a slight decline in 2024 to CNY 4,739 million, before recovering to CNY 5,255 million in 2025 [5][13]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 41.36% in 2023 to 44.86% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is experiencing a decline, with a significant drop in production and changing consumer preferences leading to challenges for major companies [2][3][14]. Production Trends - In the first two months of 2025, the production of large-scale domestic beer enterprises decreased by 4.9% year-on-year [3]. - The downward trend in beer production has been ongoing since 2013, despite revenue growth during that period due to premiumization and price increases by major companies [4][7]. Market Dynamics - Major beer companies have adopted a strategy of high-end product offerings, with many launching beers priced above 10 yuan [9]. - Examples include Chongqing Beer and Carlsberg's restructuring to focus on mid-to-high-end products, and premium offerings from companies like China Resources and Budweiser [10][11]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in beer consumption is attributed to fewer drinking occasions and changing preferences, with many consumers opting for lower alcohol consumption [14][17]. - Data indicates that over half of consumers typically drink only 1-2 bottles at a time, reflecting a trend towards moderation [19]. Industry Response - Despite domestic sales declines, beer exports have increased, with a reported 50% growth since 2019, reaching 62.1 million liters in 2023 [21]. - Companies are diversifying their product lines, with examples including Qingdao Beer acquiring a yellow wine brand and other breweries venturing into soft drinks and liquor [22]. Conclusion - The beer industry is at a critical juncture, needing to identify new growth opportunities as the initial market excitement has waned [23].

Group 1 - The event "Rural Encounter with All Things: Co-creating a Better Future" organized by China Resources Vanguard aims to promote high-quality agricultural products from various provinces to consumers in Shenzhen [1][3] - The selection meeting is part of Guangdong's 2025 consumption assistance initiative, supported by local government departments to facilitate efficient connections between procurement teams and assisting enterprises [3][8] - Inner Mongolia's (Beijing) Shared Front Warehouse serves as a crucial hub for connecting high-quality agricultural products from Inner Mongolia to the national market, addressing logistical challenges and reducing operational costs [5][6] Group 2 - The exhibition showcased a diverse range of Inner Mongolian products, including grains, dairy, snacks, and beverages, highlighting the region's ecological and flavorful offerings [6][8] - The event significantly enhances the visibility and market influence of Inner Mongolian agricultural products in Shenzhen, a key city in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [8] - Future plans for the Shared Front Warehouse include optimizing supply chains and expanding market channels to integrate more Inner Mongolian products into the national consumer market [8]

Summary of China Resources Beer Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses **China Resources Beer**, focusing on its sales performance, market strategies, and financial outlook for 2025. Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The beer industry is experiencing a complex market environment characterized by **price pressure** and **social devaluation**. Despite these challenges, opportunities for growth remain [2][4][9]. - The company is adapting to changing consumer preferences, emphasizing **diversification**, **personalization**, and **differentiation** in product offerings to maintain competitive advantages [2][8][10]. Sales Performance - In the first five months of the year, sales volume increased by **over 20%**, driven by inventory reduction and brand promotion strategies, including sponsorships of major events like the UEFA Champions League and F1 [2][6]. - The average selling price saw a slight increase, but the overall impact on sales was limited due to changes in the low-end product mix [3][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on **channel inventory management**, having actively reduced inventory levels since the second half of last year, resulting in lower channel inventory pressure [5][7]. - There is a strategic shift from simple promotional activities to enhancing **brand value** and understanding consumer trends to avoid price pressures [2][8]. Financial Outlook - The company aims for **flat or low single-digit growth** in sales volume and selling price for the year, with a target to maintain or improve gross margin by at least **0.95 percentage points** [3][12]. - The dividend payout ratio is planned to increase from **52%** last year to nearly **60%** this year, with a goal of reaching **70%** over the next two years [5][14]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is exploring diversification into other beverage categories, including **soft drinks**, **energy drinks**, and **low-alcohol beverages**, to meet evolving market demands [19][20]. - The **Chao Yong** brand is expected to continue its strong performance, with potential for double-digit growth due to improved packaging and broader consumer appeal [21][22]. Cost Management - The use of cheaper Australian barley and stable packaging material costs have contributed to improved gross margins. The company is also optimizing its product mix to enhance cost efficiency [12][24]. - Overall sales and management expenses are expected to decrease, with a focus on reallocating resources to higher-value projects rather than simply cutting costs [17][18]. Challenges in the White Spirit Market - The white spirit market faces high baseline pressures and inventory issues, prompting the company to focus on specific regions and manage costs to avoid losses [5][13][25]. Channel Strategy - The company is investing in various channels, including nightlife, dining, and emerging channels like instant delivery services, to enhance market presence [7][16]. Impact of External Factors - Hotel capacity restrictions have had minimal impact on beer sales, as the consumer base for beer differs from that of high-alcohol beverages like white spirits [23]. Conclusion - China Resources Beer is navigating a challenging market landscape by focusing on brand value, product differentiation, and strategic channel management while maintaining a positive outlook for growth and shareholder returns.

Group 1: Beer Business - The company is focusing on high-end product strategies and cost optimization, with plans to close two inefficient factories in 2024, aiming to reduce sales expense ratio by 0.97 percentage points and management expense ratio by 1.75 percentage points [1] - Despite a projected 2.5% decline in beer sales in 2024 due to weak dining and weather impacts, high-end product sales have increased by over 9%, with Heineken brand growth nearing 20% and other brands like Snow and Red爵 doubling in sales [1] - The beer business gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 41.1%, supported by low prices for barley and glass, which continue to provide cost benefits [1] Group 2: Baijiu Business - The baijiu segment is focusing on the "summary" big product strategy, with a 35% year-on-year increase in summary product sales in 2024, contributing over 70% to baijiu revenue [2] - The company plans to enhance its core market focus in 2025, particularly in Henan and Shandong, optimizing channel inventory and controlling inefficient investments to accelerate national expansion of the summary product [2] - Short-term challenges include a slowdown in sales recovery post-Chinese New Year and potential impacts from alcohol bans on certain government and enterprise channels, but long-term growth prospects remain strong [2] Group 3: 2025 Performance Outlook - The beer sales outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by higher temperatures and lower rainfall, which are expected to boost consumption, alongside new production capacity in Fujian [3] - The company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies are expected to enhance beer gross margin to over 42% in 2025, supported by an 8% year-on-year decline in beer spot costs [3] - The company is also enhancing channel collaboration and digital supply chain optimization, with online business GMV growth exceeding 30% year-on-year and inventory turnover reduced to under 45 days [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Xinjiang Tianshan North Gobi Energy Base, developed by China Huadian and China Resources Group, has successfully completed the trial operation of its first two 1 million kilowatt coal power units, marking the production of China's first "desert-gobi" renewable energy export base [1][9]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Xinjiang Tianshan North Gobi Energy Base is located in the Hami Santanghu Gobi area and is a key project under the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the "Xinjiang Electricity into Chongqing" ultra-high voltage transmission project [1][4]. - The total investment for the base is 54.7 billion yuan, with a total power generation capacity of 14.2 million kilowatts, including 4 million kilowatts of coal power, 7 million kilowatts of wind power, 3 million kilowatts of solar power, and 200,000 kilowatts of thermal power [5][7]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The construction of the "desert-gobi" base is aimed at enhancing renewable energy supply capacity, reducing construction costs, restoring ecological environments, and promoting local economic development [2][3]. - Xinjiang is recognized as a strategic energy resource base, with significant coal reserves of 5.708 billion tons, accounting for 31.7% of the region and 12.5% of the national total [3]. Group 3: Energy Supply and Demand - The energy base is expected to deliver over 36 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually to Chongqing, which will account for nearly one-quarter of the city's electricity supply by 2025 [4][9]. - The project aligns with the national strategy to meet the increasing electricity demand in Chongqing, which is projected to reach 162 billion kilowatt-hours by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - The project has overcome significant technical challenges, including the construction of the world's largest hyperbolic steel structure cooling tower and the first asynchronous motor bidirectional control pump group [6]. - The energy base features a high proportion of renewable energy, with 71.8% of its installed capacity coming from renewable sources, exceeding the "14th Five-Year" renewable energy planning target of 50% [7]. Group 5: Environmental and Economic Impact - The project is expected to reduce coal consumption by approximately 6 million tons and carbon dioxide emissions by about 16 million tons annually [7]. - The construction has created 23,000 job opportunities and incorporates ecological restoration measures to enhance the overall benefits of the clean energy base [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The sentiment in the liquor sector is under pressure, particularly due to new regulations affecting government banquets, which are expected to further reduce demand for high-end liquor [5]. - Despite the current challenges, the overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks and increasing dividends, indicating potential for future capital inflow as domestic demand policies are anticipated [5]. - The new consumption sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, evolving consumer preferences, and technological innovations, creating structural opportunities [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has seen declines of -7.7% over the past month, -10.4% over three months, and -5.9% over the past year, contrasting with the Shanghai Composite Index which has shown a slight increase [3][4]. Recent News - In early June, the liquor price index saw a slight decline, and liquor prices dropped by 2% year-on-year in May. Additionally, several government departments are promoting digital transformation in the food industry [4][18]. Company Feedback - Companies like Wuliangye are accelerating the development of products targeting younger consumers, while Gu Yue Long Shan's new sparkling yellow wine sold out immediately upon launch. Shede Liquor reported no inventory backlog [4][18]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies within the food and beverage sector, including Ximai Food, Youyou Food, Ganyuan Food, Three Squirrels, and Dongpeng Beverage, highlighting their potential for growth in the new consumption landscape [8]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating a bullish outlook with "Buy" ratings for all listed companies, including Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Kweichow Moutai [10].

研究报告 Research Report 16 Jun 2025 华润啤酒 China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) 业绩修复明确，估值具备吸引力 Clear earnings recovery with attractive valuation [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$24.90 目标价 HK$35.60 HTI ESG 2.6-2.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$80.78bn / US$10.29bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$70.62mn 发行股票数目 3,244mn 自由流通股 (%) 48% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$35.85-HK$22.10 注：现价 HK$24.90 为 2025 年 06 月 13 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth ...

金十数据6月16日讯，建银国际发表报告，将华润啤酒(00291.HK)目标价由34港元，调低1.2%至33.6港 元，投资评级维持"跑赢大市"。建银国际将2025财年盈利预测下调4%，主要原因是白酒销售成长弱于 预期。基于啤酒业务2025财年10倍企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润倍数和白酒业务2025财年10倍市盈率 的不变，该行将目标价从34港元下调至33.6港元。鉴于喜力啤酒需求强劲，建银国际预计华润啤酒将考 虑扩大其在福建的喜力啤酒产能。尽管如此，尽管拟议增加资本支出，但该行相信，在稳健的经营现金 流的支持下，该公司将继续提高其股息支付率至约60%（目前为52%）。 建银国际削华润啤酒目标价1.2%至33.6港元 ...