Summary of China Resources Beer Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Beer - **Industry**: Beverage (Beer) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Resources Beer reported revenue and volume-price performance that outperformed peers, with a projected net profit of approximately 5.3 billion yuan for 2025, expected to reach 6 billion yuan in 2026, and potentially exceed 6.5 billion yuan in 2027, maintaining over 10% growth in the next two years [3][16][22] - The revenue growth center is anticipated to be around 3% to 4%, driven by a 2% increase in beer sales volume and price optimization from product structure [17] Product Strategy - The new chairman has adjusted product strategies and cost control measures, focusing on regional products and flexible promotions, while leveraging strong regional brands [2][5][22] - The company aims to enhance its share in the sub-premium segment by diversifying its product offerings rather than relying on a single product [2][7] - The Heineken brand is expected to grow over 20% in 2025, reaching a scale of 700,000 to 800,000 tons, with a healthy channel and an average inventory of about three weeks [2][8] Market Expansion - China Resources Beer is expanding from mature markets to emerging markets, with a focus on regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Beijing, competing with brands like Carlsberg and Budweiser [9][10] - The company has successfully promoted the Red Duke series in the Northeast market, with expected sales exceeding 100,000 tons, and the Snow Beer Old Snow series projected to reach 150,000 to 200,000 tons, reflecting a significant change in product structure that enhances profit elasticity [11][12] Cost Management - The company has implemented refined management practices to achieve cost savings, including a 10% reduction in brand investment and a decrease in management and labor costs [14][15] - The relocation of headquarters to Shenzhen has contributed to natural personnel attrition, aiding in cost reduction [14] - Adjustments in promotional expenses are expected to yield further savings, with plans to reduce the number of sales staff and transition some to third-party roles [15] Valuation and Investment Outlook - The current valuation of China Resources Beer is approximately 14 times earnings, which is relatively low compared to the food and beverage industry, with a target upside of around 30% [4][18] - Public fund holdings in the company have decreased over the past few years, indicating a relatively low capital presence [21] - The company’s dividend payout ratio was about 50% in 2024, with expectations for this ratio to increase in the future [20] Future Expectations - The new management's changes in product strategy and regional investment are expected to lead to better-than-expected profit growth in the coming years, particularly in high-end and sub-premium products [22] Additional Important Insights - The company’s average beer price per ton was approximately 3,355 yuan, with a gross profit of about 1,380 yuan per ton, indicating a focus on higher-margin products moving forward [13]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the instant retail sector has significantly benefited local brands, particularly in the beverage market, leading to a shift in market dynamics where domestic companies are outperforming foreign giants like Budweiser APAC in China [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Budweiser APAC's revenue was surpassed by China Resources Beer in the first half of the year, marking a significant shift in the market landscape [6][18]. - Budweiser APAC's revenue in the first half of 2023 was $3.136 billion, a decline of 5.6% year-on-year, attributed to weak beer consumption [18][21]. - The high-end market share of Budweiser APAC in China has dropped from over 50% to less than 40% [21][23]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao Brewery have reported revenue growth, contrasting Budweiser APAC's decline [21][23]. - China Resources Beer achieved a gross margin of 48.9% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong performance in the high-end segment [21][23]. - The rise of local brands in the high-end market has been strategic, with China Resources Beer acquiring Heineken's business in China to strengthen its position [23]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Budweiser APAC has faced challenges in adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [26][29]. - The company has been slow to innovate and respond to market trends, such as the rising demand for lower-alcohol beverages [29][31]. - Budweiser APAC's focus on high-end and nightlife channels has led to a disconnect with broader consumer bases, particularly in lower-tier cities [35][36].

Group 1: Communication Industry Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a positive spillover effect from AI computing power, with both domestic and international demand resonating [5][7]. - In H1 2025, 226 listed companies in the communication sector reported a total revenue of 1,969.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [5]. - The overall gross margin for the communication industry in Q2 2025 was 25.2%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.3 percentage points [5]. Group 2: Individual Company Performance - China Resources Beer - China Resources Beer is positioned as a leader in the Chinese beer industry, with a focus on high-end product strategies driving revenue per ton and profit margin improvements [9][10]. - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 38.87 billion, 40.65 billion, and 42.20 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.89 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.79 billion [10]. - The implementation of a "three precision management" strategy has led to an increase in gross margin to 48.9% and net profit margin to 24.0% in H1 2025 [9][10]. Group 3: Company Performance - Peak Technology - Peak Technology achieved a revenue of 375 million in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.84% [13][14]. - The company is expanding into automotive and robotics sectors, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 760 million, 949 million, and 1.212 billion respectively [14]. - The decline in net profit by 4.52% in H1 2025 was attributed to increased stock incentive expenses, but excluding this, net profit would have grown by 18.69% [14]. Group 4: Company Performance - Longxun Co., Ltd. - Longxun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 247 million in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.35% [17][18]. - The company is focusing on automotive electronics, with expectations for revenue growth driven by the SerDes product line, which is entering full market promotion [18][19]. - Revenue forecasts for Longxun Co., Ltd. for 2025-2027 are 705 million, 1.119 billion, and 1.450 billion respectively [19]. Group 5: Company Performance - Fuzhijun Technology - Fuzhijun Technology achieved a revenue of 519 million in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 18.10% [21][22]. - The company is focusing on the ultra-precision optical field, with significant growth in its subsidiary, achieving a revenue of 76.1 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 180.08% [23]. - Revenue forecasts for Fuzhijun Technology for 2025-2027 are 1.031 billion, 1.165 billion, and 1.306 billion respectively [23]. Group 6: Company Performance - Meixinsheng - Meixinsheng reported a revenue of 265 million in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.83% [25][26]. - The optical sensor business saw a significant increase in revenue, driven by demand from leading smartwatch brands [26]. - Revenue forecasts for Meixinsheng for 2025-2027 are 653 million, 1.043 billion, and 1.417 billion respectively [27].

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer is successfully implementing its high-end strategy, which is driving an increase in ton price and gross margin [1] Group 1: High-End Strategy and Market Position - The company is firmly executing its "battle for high-end" strategy, establishing a matrix of "Chinese brands + international brands" to solidify its leading market position [1] - The use of popular brands like "Yong Chuang Tian Ya" and "Snow Beer" helps to enhance market share, while premium brands like Heineken and Red Horse elevate product positioning, driving ton price and profit margin increases [1] - The company is actively developing new products to meet consumer demands for personalization and differentiation [1] Group 2: Capacity Optimization - The company is proactively shutting down excess capacity, reducing the number of factories from 98 in 2017 to 60 by 2025, while maintaining a production capacity of 19.2 million kiloliters [1] - Factories are widely distributed across 25 provinces and municipalities in China, covering most regions of the country [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Profitability - The implementation of the "Three Precision Management" strategy (streamlining organization, lean cost, and refined business) has led to significant improvements in operational efficiency [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin increased to 48.9%, and net profit margin rose to 24.0% [1] Group 4: Management Transition and Market Confidence - The company has experienced a smooth management transition, actively communicating with investors and emphasizing that core strategies remain unchanged [1] - The new management team has extensive frontline experience in the beer business and has successfully led recent channel and marketing innovations, helping to stabilize market confidence and eliminate uncertainties [1] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 38.87 billion, 40.65 billion, and 42.20 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +0.6%, +4.6%, and +3.8% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.89 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.79 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth of +24.3%, +6.8%, and +7.8% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.82 yuan, 1.94 yuan, and 2.09 yuan for 2025-2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [5][12] Core Views - China Resources Beer is executing its high-end strategy effectively, driving up tonnage price and gross margin. The company has established a matrix of "Chinese brands + international brands" to solidify its market position and enhance product pricing [1][12] - The company is optimizing its production capacity by shutting down excess facilities, reducing the number of factories from 98 in 2017 to 60 by 2025, while maintaining a capacity of 19.2 million kiloliters [1][12] - The implementation of "Three Precision Management" has improved operational efficiency, with gross margin rising to 48.9% and net profit margin to 24.0% in the first half of 2025 [1][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Beer is a leading player in the Chinese beer industry, focusing solely on beer after divesting non-beer businesses in 2015. The company has a significant market presence with a strong brand portfolio [17][19] Industry Analysis - The Chinese beer market is experiencing stagnation in sales volume, with a projected CAGR of -0.4% from 2010 to 2025. However, the retail price of beer is expected to continue rising, indicating potential for price increases [36][38][43] - The market is concentrated, with the top three players (China Resources, Tsingtao, and Budweiser) accounting for 60.1% of the market share as of 2023, suggesting limited room for further consolidation [45][47] Investment Logic - The long-term strategy focuses on high-end product development, leveraging both domestic and international brands to enhance product pricing and market share. The company aims to continue optimizing its product structure to drive tonnage price and profit margin improvements [63][68] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 38.87 billion, 40.65 billion, and 42.20 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 5.89 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.79 billion yuan respectively [12][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, emphasizing the resilience of leading companies and the valuation recovery opportunities in the livestock and restaurant chains [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that national beer companies have shown stable revenue and profit performance, while regional companies exhibit better elasticity in performance. The cost decline has contributed to gross profit growth, and the improvement in expense ratios is gradually releasing profitability [5][24]. - In the snack food sector, the report notes a divergence in channel performance, with emerging channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets maintaining high momentum, while traditional channels face challenges. The focus is shifting from revenue growth to profitability logic [25]. - The restaurant chain sector is experiencing a bottoming out of fundamentals and sentiment, with a gradual recovery expected as policies adjust and consumption peaks approach. The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies like Haidilao and Guangzhou Restaurant [29][31]. - The livestock sector is anticipated to see a fundamental reversal as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu [36][45]. Summary by Sections Beer - National beer companies have demonstrated operational resilience, with stable revenue growth driven primarily by volume recovery. Regional companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer have shown stronger revenue performance [12][13]. - Cost improvements from raw material price declines and stable pricing have driven gross margin increases for beer companies. The report anticipates continued upward potential in the beer sector as terminal demand gradually recovers [18][24]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is characterized by a split in channel performance, with new channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets thriving, while traditional channels face challenges. The report emphasizes the importance of profitability over revenue growth moving forward [25][26]. - Companies like Wancheng Group and Yuyuan Foods are highlighted for their strong performance in emerging channels, while others are advised to focus on cost optimization to enhance profitability [25][26]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant sector has been under pressure due to policies and competition, but a recovery is expected as restrictions ease and consumption peaks. The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for recovery, such as Haidilao and Green Tea Group [29][31]. - The report notes that the overall restaurant revenue for H1 2025 was 2.75 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.3% increase, but with high-end dining facing significant challenges [29][30]. Livestock - The livestock sector is expected to see a turnaround as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu. The report indicates that the most challenging phase for livestock companies may be over [36][45]. - The report highlights that the decline in raw milk prices has pressured revenue, but a stabilization is anticipated, which could improve the valuation of biological assets and overall profitability [36][38].

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Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the company's turnover was RMB 23,942 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[19] - Profit attributable to shareholders for the same period reached RMB 5,789 million, a 23.0% increase compared to RMB 4,705 million in 2024[19] - Basic earnings per share increased to RMB 1.78 from RMB 1.45, reflecting a growth of 22.8%[13] - The gross profit margin improved by 2.0 percentage points to a record high of 48.9% due to the ongoing development of the premiumization strategy in the beer business[19] - Earnings before interest and taxation for the first half of 2025 amounted to RMB 7,691 million, marking a 20.8% increase from RMB 6,368 million in 2024[19] - The beer segment's earnings before interest and taxation rose by 13.8% to RMB 7,241 million, while the profit attributable to shareholders in this segment increased by 17.3%[19] - The Group's total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 5,735 million, compared to RMB 4,744 million in 2024, indicating an increase of 20.92%[64] - Profit before taxation for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was RMB 7,747 million, compared to RMB 6,414 million in 2024, representing a growth of 20.74%[63] - The profit for the period was RMB 5,757 million, an increase from RMB 4,733 million in the previous year, marking a growth of 21.66%[63][64] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Consolidated net cash reached RMB 7,382 million, significantly up from RMB 2,011 million in the previous year[13] - The current ratio improved to 0.83 from 0.60, indicating better short-term financial health[13] - As of June 30, 2025, the Group's consolidated net cash amounted to RMB 7,382,000,000, with borrowings totaling RMB 1,036,000,000[40] - Cash and cash equivalents increased significantly to RMB 8,384 million from RMB 3,816 million, marking a net increase of RMB 4,573 million[68] - Net cash from operating activities rose to RMB 6,373 million, compared to RMB 6,012 million in the same period last year[68] - The company incurred a net cash outflow of RMB 681 million from financing activities, a significant improvement from RMB 3,827 million in the previous year[68] - The net cash used in investing activities was RMB 1,119 million, slightly lower than RMB 1,167 million in the previous year[68] Equity and Dividends - The company's equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 36,201 million from RMB 31,692 million, a growth of 14.3%[13] - The Company declared dividends of RMB 1,258 million for the period ending June 30, 2025[70] - The retained profits increased to RMB 24,491 million as of June 30, 2025, compared to RMB 18,584 million as of January 1, 2024, indicating a growth of approximately 32.0%[70] - The total equity of the Company reached RMB 40,062 million as of June 30, 2025, reflecting an increase from RMB 34,174 million as of January 1, 2024[70] - The Company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.464 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2025, compared to RMB 0.373 per share for the same period in 2024, representing an increase of approximately 24.4%[197] Operational Highlights - The Group's online business recorded nearly 40% year-on-year growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) in the first half of 2025[32] - Beer sales volume was approximately 6,487,000 kilolitres, up 2.2% year-on-year, with premium beer products showing strong performance[26] - The beer business turnover was RMB 23,161,000,000, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with a gross profit margin of 48.3%[27] - The Group plans to continue executing its "Excellence in Development for Winning at Premiumisation" strategy to strengthen its competitive position[34] - The Group focused on business empowerment, talent development, and knowledge management as part of its strategic initiatives in 2025[58][60][61] Asset Management - As of June 30, 2025, total assets amounted to RMB 71,185 million, a decrease from RMB 69,308 million as of December 31, 2024[65] - The company reported a total equity of RMB 40,062 million, up from RMB 35,585 million as of December 31, 2024[67] - Fixed assets decreased slightly to RMB 17,714 million from RMB 18,124 million, while other intangible assets also saw a decline to RMB 7,894 million from RMB 8,258 million[65] - The consideration receivable as of June 30, 2025, was RMB 3,146 million, a decrease from RMB 3,672 million as of December 31, 2024, representing a decline of approximately 14.34%[106] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The auditor's report for the financial statements was unqualified, indicating no significant issues were raised[77] - The Company has sufficient resources to meet its liabilities and commitments, ensuring operational continuity for the foreseeable future[80] - The accounting policies applied are consistent with those used in the annual financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024[81] - The Company has implemented its corporate governance standards since November 2003, with the latest revision of the Corporate Governance Practice Manual dated July 4, 2025[179] - The Board of Directors consists of two executive directors, three non-executive directors, and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring a balanced power structure[183] Market and Economic Context - The Chinese economy showed resilience in the first half of 2025, supported by effective policy measures, while market sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks improved[144] - The Group's operational performance remained resilient, focusing on premiumisation and high-quality development in emerging consumer scenarios[150] Risk Management - The Group's risk management and internal control systems were reviewed, with no significant concerns identified that could materially affect operations or financial reporting[140] - The Group's risk management process is designed to proactively identify and mitigate risks across all business segments[141] - The Group's existing risk management and internal control systems are deemed effective and adequate as of the latest review[140]