交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 97.90 | 港元 | 113.30↑ | +15.7% | | | 安踏 (2020 HK) | | | | | | | 2024 年业绩符合预期；2025 年指引营收高个位数至双位数增长 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 3/24 7/24 11/24 3/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2020 HK 恒生指数 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 77,163 | 84,476 | 90,862 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | | 净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 118.8, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 97.9 [2][5]. Core Insights - Despite facing significant pressure on profit margins in the short term, Anta's revenue from its main brand is expected to steadily expand, with other brands maintaining rapid growth. The contribution from Amer Sports is projected to significantly increase, supporting a high growth rate in core net profit by 2025. The multi-brand strategy is anticipated to continue driving overall revenue expansion for the company [1][7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 78,838 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% [9][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 15,596 million in 2024 to RMB 13,965 million in 2025, indicating a decline of 10.5% [9][13]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 62.5% in 2025, with operating profit margin slightly declining to 23.2% [11][12]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue is expected to grow at a high single-digit percentage in 2025, while Fila is projected to grow in the mid-single digits. Other brands like Descente and Kolon are anticipated to exceed 30% growth [7][8]. - The online sales channel is expected to continue to grow, contributing to the overall revenue but also leading to increased discounting pressures on margins [7][8]. Market Strategy - Anta plans to increase market investments in 2025, focusing on expanding the new retail formats, enhancing overseas market presence, and increasing product launches. The company aims for overseas revenue to account for 15% within five years [7][8]. - The multi-brand strategy is expected to be a key driver for long-term revenue growth, with Descente and Kolon brands showing strong growth momentum [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) and raises the target price to HKD 118.8, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 97.9 [1][2]. Core Views - Despite facing significant pressure on profit margins in the short term, Anta's revenue from its main brand is expected to steadily expand, with other brands maintaining rapid growth. The contribution from Amer Sports is anticipated to significantly increase, supporting a high growth rate in core net profit by 2025. The multi-brand strategy is expected to continue driving overall revenue expansion for the company [1][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 78,838 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% [9][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 15,596 million in 2024 to RMB 13,965 million in 2025, indicating a decline of 10.5% [9][13]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 62.5% in 2025, with operating profit margin slightly declining to 23.2% [11][13]. Brand Performance - The management anticipates that the Anta brand's revenue will grow at a high single-digit percentage in 2025, while Fila is expected to see mid-single-digit growth. Other brands like Descente and Kolon are projected to exceed 30% growth [7][15]. - The online sales channel is expected to continue driving revenue growth for Fila, which is projected to contribute 40% of its revenue in 2024, up from 35% in 2023 [7][11]. Market Strategy - Anta plans to increase market investments in 2025, focusing on expanding the new retail format (Super Anta stores), enhancing overseas market presence, and increasing sponsorship for domestic events [7][11]. - The multi-brand strategy is expected to be a key driver for long-term revenue growth, with Descente and Kolon brands contributing 15% of the group's revenue in 2024 [7][11].

公司于 3 月 19 日公布 2024 年年报。全年实现营收 708.3 亿元， 同增 13.0%，不包含 Amer Sports 上市收益的归母净利润 119.3 亿 元，同增 16.5%，多品牌矩阵保持快速发展趋势。公司 2024 年预 计总计派发股息 2.36 港元，派息率为 51.4%，维持买入评级。 安踏牌：多店型策略显效，核心场拉动增长。24 全年安踏主品牌 营收为 335.2 亿元，同增 10.6%，其中核心场拉动作用显著，超级 安踏、作品集等新零售业态店效持续提升，部分超级安踏店店效已 提升至传统店 3 倍。同时安踏爆品策略进一步强化，24 年新品 PG7 跑鞋凭借其高性价比上市三个月内销售量破百万双。安踏儿童方 面亦延续推出安踏 CAMPUS 特色门店新业态，已在一线城市高端商 场开设，店效达到传统店态 2 倍，增长潜力显著。 FILA：儿童、潮牌调整迅速，鞋类心智强化。FILA 品牌营收为 266.3 亿元，同增 6.1%，其中鞋类拓展顺利，24 年增长超 10%、达 2300 万双，预计 25 年进一步打造鞋类百万 IP，拉动品牌增长。FILA 儿 童、潮牌的增量品类鞋、书包等亦持续突破 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][40]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a core net profit growth of 16.5% in 2024, with a revenue increase of 13.6% to 70.83 billion RMB. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow to 11.93 billion RMB, excluding non-cash gains from Amer Sports [1][7]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 51.4% and has repurchased approximately 1.28 billion HKD worth of shares during the year [1][15]. - The management remains optimistic about the growth prospects of the sports consumption market in China, with expectations for significant growth across its brand portfolio [2][39]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The company reported a revenue of 70.83 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year increase. The core net profit is expected to reach 11.93 billion RMB, marking a 16.5% increase [1][7]. - **Brand Performance**: Revenue from the Anta brand reached 33.52 billion RMB, up 10.6%, while FILA's revenue grew by 6.1% to 26.63 billion RMB. Other brands saw a significant increase of 53.7% to 10.68 billion RMB [2][24]. - **Profit Margins**: The overall gross margin for 2024 is projected at 62.2%, a slight decrease from 62.6% in 2023. The operating profit margin is expected to be 23.4%, down from 24.6% [8][29]. Brand and Market Strategy - **Anta Brand**: The Anta brand is focusing on new retail formats and has launched successful products like the PG7 running shoes. The brand's revenue from e-commerce channels grew by 20.7% [2][19]. - **FILA Brand**: FILA's revenue growth is driven by its professional sports series and footwear. The brand aims to enhance its product functionality and quality while expanding its retail presence [22][23]. - **Other Brands**: Brands like Descente and KOLON have shown strong growth, with Descente's revenue increasing by over 35% and KOLON by more than 60% [24][26]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 13.48 billion RMB, 15.46 billion RMB, and 17 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [3][39]. - The target price has been revised to 113-118 HKD, based on the updated profit forecasts, corresponding to a PE ratio of 22-23x for 2025 [3][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported strong performance for 2024, with revenue of 70.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.6 billion, up 52.4% [1] - The main brand, Anta, achieved a high single-digit growth in revenue, with reported income of 33.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [2] - FILA brand showed healthy growth with reported income of 26.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [3] - Other brands experienced significant growth, with revenue increasing by 53.7% to 10.7 billion [4] - Amer Sports reported a revenue of 5.18 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with the Greater China region leading growth at 54% [5] - The company expects revenue growth of 10% in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, with net profit projected to be 13.4 billion, 14.7 billion, and 16.1 billion respectively [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 70.8 billion, with a net profit of 15.6 billion, reflecting a strong performance [1] - The cash dividend payout ratio was 51.4%, maintaining a normal level [1] Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue reached 33.5 billion, with DTC and e-commerce growing by 7.2% and 20.7% respectively [2] - FILA brand revenue was 26.6 billion, with a focus on enhancing product functionality and quality [3] - Other brands saw a revenue increase of 53.7%, with a notable performance from Descente and Kolon [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on product innovation and expanding its global brand presence [2][3] - The leadership change in FILA is expected to drive further brand innovation and growth [3] - The company maintains a positive outlook on revenue growth and profitability for the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company achieved excellent performance in 2024 with a revenue growth of 13.6% to 70.826 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 52.4% to 15.596 billion yuan, excluding one-time gains [1] - The company is expected to maintain a long-term high-quality growth trajectory, with a projected revenue growth of 10.5% in 2025 [10] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 70.826 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 62.2%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points [1] - The operating profit increased by 8% to 16.595 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 52.4% to 15.596 billion yuan, excluding one-time gains [1] - The company’s market share in the Chinese sports footwear and apparel market increased to 23%, maintaining its leading position [1] Brand Analysis - Anta brand revenue grew by 10.6% to 33.522 billion yuan in 2024, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) and e-commerce channels showing strong growth [2] - The number of Anta adult and children stores increased to 7,135 and 2,784 respectively, indicating a strategic focus on differentiated store formats [2] - Fila brand revenue increased by 6.1% to 26.626 billion yuan, with a focus on high-end sports fashion and an expected better performance in e-commerce compared to offline sales [4] Profitability - The gross margin for Anta brand decreased to 54.5%, and the operating margin fell to 21% due to increased marketing expenses related to the Olympics [3] - Fila brand's gross margin decreased to 67.8%, and the operating margin fell to 25.3%, attributed to a shift towards e-commerce and increased product variety [9] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth of 10.5% in 2025, with net profit projected at 13.475 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% increase from 2024 [10] - The outdoor brand segment is anticipated to grow by over 30% in 2025, driven by an increase in store numbers and improved store efficiency [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company achieved excellent performance in 2024 with a revenue growth of 13.6% to 70.826 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 52.4% to 15.596 billion yuan, excluding one-time gains [1][11] - The company is expected to maintain a long-term high-quality growth trajectory, with a projected revenue growth of 10.5% in 2025 [10][11] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 70.826 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 62.2%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points [1] - The operating profit increased by 8% to 16.595 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 52.4% to 15.596 billion yuan, excluding one-time gains [1] - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 51.4%, consistent with the previous year [1] Brand Analysis - Anta brand revenue grew by 10.6% to 33.522 billion yuan in 2024, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) and e-commerce channels showing strong growth [2] - The number of Anta stores increased to 7,135 for adults and 2,784 for children, reflecting a strategic focus on differentiated store formats [2] - Fila brand revenue increased by 6.1% to 26.626 billion yuan, with a focus on high-end sports fashion and an expected better performance in e-commerce compared to offline sales [4][9] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 54.5%, with a slight decline in operating profit margin to 21% due to increased marketing expenses related to the Olympics [3] - Fila's gross margin decreased to 67.8%, and operating profit margin fell to 25.3%, attributed to a shift towards e-commerce and increased product variety [9] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 10.5% in 2025, with net profit expected to reach 13.475 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% increase from 2024, excluding one-time gains [10][11] - The outdoor brands are projected to grow by over 30% in 2025, driven by an increase in store numbers and improved store efficiency [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [1][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue and net profit growth in 2024, with revenue at 708.26 billion and net profit at 155.96 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 13.6% and 52.4% respectively [2] - The main brand's stability is attributed to online contributions, while FILA faces pressure; other brands maintain high growth [3] - The company plans to expand its store count significantly by 2025, focusing on Southeast Asia and other international markets [3][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin is projected to be 62.2%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to decline to 23.4%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The net profit margin is forecasted to be 22.0%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 770.44 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.78% [9] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 138.74 billion, reflecting a decrease of 11.04% compared to 2024 [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 4.94 yuan, with a PE ratio of 18 times [9][7] Brand Performance - Revenue from Anta, FILA, and other brands for 2024 is expected to be 335.22 billion, 266.26 billion, and 106.78 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 6.1%, and 53.7% [3] - The online sales channel is projected to grow significantly, with online revenue expected to reach 248.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.18 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.4% [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to show resilience in its core business in 2024, with a projected revenue of RMB 70.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The operating profit is expected to reach RMB 16.6 billion, up 8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 15.6 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 52.4% [6]. - The company plans to continue optimizing its operational strategies under the "Single Focus, Multi-Brand, Globalization" strategy, with expectations for improved global competitiveness [7]. Company Overview - The company operates in the textile and apparel industry, with a current stock price of HKD 97.90 as of March 19, 2025. The market capitalization is approximately RMB 215.846 billion [2]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio, with footwear accounting for 41.2%, apparel for 55.6%, and accessories for 3.2% of total revenue [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 7.59 billion in 2022, with projections of RMB 10.24 billion in 2023 and RMB 15.6 billion in 2024. The expected net profit for 2025 is RMB 13.589 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 4.84 in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 times [10]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The total revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53.651 billion in 2022 to RMB 79.364 billion in 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [13]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in net profit over the next few years, with projections of RMB 15.273 billion in 2026 and RMB 17.255 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.4% and 13%, respectively [10].