文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...

为满足用户节前变美的需求，美团医美近期上线了"美美过新年"活动，并提供3000元医美券包和变美日历，用户可参考日历节点，在合适的 时间点选择适合自己的项目。 此外，春节假期期间，美团平台上将有至少3成医美机构全程开门营业，较去年高约5个百分点，为需要肌肤急救、或希望利用假期恢复状态 的用户提供便利。届时，平台将为这些门店上线"春节不打烊"标签，便于用户寻找营业机构。 临近春节，很多人都想"美美过新年"，医美市场迎来一波小高峰，春节前做医美成为不少人的选择。 "以往大家春节前会烫头发、做美甲美睫，这是'传统三件套'，现在生活水平更高了，很多人还会做轻医美，比如光电抗衰和注射类项目，组 成新的'春节变美四件套'。"一家医美机构的咨询顾问表示，她最近每天要接待十来拨客人，忙得连喝水的时间都没有。 "平时经常熬夜，整个人都很憔悴。这次想在春节前做医美，让皮肤状态好一点，漂漂亮亮回家。"一位最近预约了医美项目的用户表示。 美团医美的数据显示，上周用户访问量比去年同期增长超15%，周环比增长率也接近10%，显示出近期医美市场的热度。 "节前大家的需求主要集中在抗衰、除皱、肌肤状态急救这三大类上，并且依据恢复周期的长短，呈 ...

2026年一开年，市场就传来重磅消息：1月9日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室宣布，依据 《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、评估。 是问题，也是期待。这些从身边蹦出来的问号，和它们所承载的美好愿望，或许正是观察新一年消费市 场最好的起点。咱们就顺着这些线索，展望一个与你我钱包和幸福感息息相关的2026年。 同日，市场监管总局发布了2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大制度建设成果；财政部、国家税务总局宣 布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 外卖大战还会接着打吗？ 紧接着，1月14日，市场监管总局宣布，依据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对携程集团有限公司涉嫌 滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查。 1月27日，市场监管总局又发布2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大重大案件，包括深圳罗马仕科技有限 公司违反强制性产品认证规定及虚假宣传案，山西老葛商贸有限公司虚假宣传、价格欺诈系列案等。 消息密集登场，消费者心中难免有几个问号：新的一年里，曾经让我们"薅"得那么开心的外卖大战，会 熄火吗？"卷"得飞起的各行各业，能喘口气了吗？经历了预制菜风波，平时点个外卖、 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,158.76, down by 228.35 points or 0.83% [1] - The index reached a high of 27,426.11 and a low of 27,082.20 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 46.7689 million [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Most large-cap stocks experienced declines, with notable movements including: - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 606.00, down by HKD 16.00 or 2.57% [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) fell to HKD 169.20, down by HKD 4.10 or 2.37% [3] - HSBC Holdings reported a slight decrease to HKD 136.60, down by HKD 1.00 or 0.73% [3] - Other significant declines included: - China Mobile down by 9.29% to HKD 36.12 [3] - BYD Company down by 3.98% to HKD 97.75 [3] - Meituan down by 1.42% to HKD 97.20 [3] Stock Price Movements - The following stocks showed notable price changes: - AIA Group down by 0.66% to HKD 90.35 [3] - Xiaomi Corporation down by 3.06% to HKD 35.50 [3] - JD.com down by 1.92% to HKD 112.40 [3] - Some stocks remained stable or showed minor gains, such as: - New World Development up by 0.88% to HKD 125.70 [3] - Bank of China up by 0.19% to HKD 41.24 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape in the food delivery and retail sectors is shifting towards a focus on service quality and sustainable practices, driven by regulatory interventions and changing consumer expectations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics - The State Council's Antitrust Committee announced investigations into the food delivery platform market and other sectors to assess competition [1]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will eliminate VAT export rebates for solar products starting April 1, 2026 [1]. - The market is witnessing a transition from aggressive price competition to a focus on service quality and user experience, as exemplified by the decline of "zero-yuan milk tea" promotions [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Evolution and Strategic Shifts - Major platforms are moving from a "burning money" strategy to a dual strategy of consolidating core businesses while exploring new retail avenues [4][5]. - The competition is evolving from food delivery to instant retail, with companies like Alibaba aiming to dominate the instant retail market by investing heavily [3][4]. - The focus is shifting towards optimizing user experience and ensuring sustainable business practices, moving away from mere scale expansion [2][3]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumers are increasingly rejecting "involution" products that prioritize low prices over quality, indicating a demand for better service and product standards [6][7]. - The market is expected to segment into efficiency-driven and experience-driven categories, reflecting diverse consumer needs [8][12]. - The rise of local brands and unique experiences is fostering a more vibrant consumer ecosystem, as seen in the popularity of cultural and experiential offerings [12][13]. Group 4: Food Safety and Transparency - Regulatory efforts are shifting towards proactive measures in food safety, aiming for a comprehensive oversight system to prevent risks [9][10]. - Initiatives are being implemented to enhance transparency in food sourcing and processing, which is crucial for rebuilding consumer trust [10][11]. - The food safety environment is anticipated to improve through ongoing regulatory adjustments and market responses to consumer concerns [11].

Core Viewpoint - The O2O (Online to Offline) model is becoming a crucial pathway for digital transformation across various industries, driven by the rise of mobile internet and the emergence of new players in the market [1][3]. Group 1: O2O Model Development - The O2O platform is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities due to the widespread adoption of mobile devices and technological advancements [3]. - Various operational models within O2O, such as full-channel integration and social group buying, are meeting the diverse needs of consumers [3]. - The rise of new retail is deeply integrating online services with offline experiences, reshaping industry structures and ecosystems [3]. Group 2: Cross-Industry Alliance - The cross-industry alliance within cloud platforms is becoming a significant force in reconstructing the business ecosystem by integrating resources across industries [3][5]. - This alliance allows businesses to conduct joint marketing, service, or product innovation, achieving mutual benefits [3][5]. Group 3: Consumer Benefits - Consumers can enjoy discounts and services across various merchants within the alliance, enhancing their shopping experience and satisfaction [5][16]. - The alliance provides value-added services through incentives like points and coupons, increasing user loyalty [5][16]. - The shared traffic among merchants maximizes flow utilization, boosting sales and market share [5][16]. Group 4: Operational Model - The core of the alliance's operational model lies in the integration of online and offline resources, utilizing shared industry resources and joint marketing strategies [5][6]. - The alliance breaks down industry barriers, allowing merchants to share customer information and marketing channels, thus reducing operational costs and enhancing competitiveness [6]. Group 5: Marketing and Data Utilization - The alliance leverages cloud platform technology to provide online marketing tools, helping merchants expand brand influence and attract potential customers [8]. - By collecting and analyzing consumer data, the alliance offers precise market insights and decision support for merchants [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The cloud platform cross-industry alliance is expected to play a vital role in creating more value for businesses and consumers as technology advances and the market matures [17].

Core Insights - The medical beauty market is experiencing a surge in demand as consumers prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival, with many opting for aesthetic treatments to enhance their appearance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior, with traditional beauty treatments being supplemented by light medical beauty procedures, forming a new "Spring Festival beauty package" [1]. - Meituan's data indicates a more than 15% year-on-year increase in user visits to medical beauty services, with a nearly 10% week-on-week growth, reflecting heightened market activity [1]. - The demand is primarily focused on anti-aging, wrinkle removal, and skin emergency treatments, with varying popularity based on recovery times [1]. Group 2: Treatment Popularity - Treatments like Thermage and Ultherapy peaked in early January but have seen a gradual decline, while hyaluronic acid, Botox, and photorejuvenation have been on the rise recently [1]. - Meituan has launched a "Beautiful New Year" campaign, offering a 3000 yuan medical beauty voucher package and a beauty calendar to help users choose suitable treatments [1]. Group 3: Operational Insights - During the Spring Festival, at least 30% of medical beauty institutions on the Meituan platform will remain open, an increase of about 5 percentage points from the previous year, providing convenience for users seeking treatments [2]. - Meituan is promoting the "Safe Beauty" initiative to ensure compliance and safety in the industry, aiming to have over 12 million verified treatments by the end of 2025, covering 2500 institutions across 140 cities [3].

Group 1 - The traditional "return home for the New Year" pattern is being disrupted, with more families opting for diverse experiences during the Spring Festival, such as bringing elders to cities or traveling to different locations [1] - The trend of "reverse New Year" is on the rise, with a significant increase in ticket bookings for this travel style, showing an 84% year-on-year growth in flight bookings during the Spring Festival period [1][2] - Popular destinations for "reverse New Year" travel include major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, reflecting a shift in travel preferences [1] Group 2 - The price advantage of "reverse New Year" travel is notable, with significant price differences in flight tickets, such as a fare of 399 yuan from Wuhan to Beijing compared to 1479 yuan for the reverse route [2] - The booking volume for flights to destinations like Jieyang has surged by 166% year-on-year, driven by interest in cultural heritage experiences [2] - The trend of short-distance trips is also gaining popularity, with families opting for local experiences, such as visiting nearby cities for cultural events [3] Group 3 - The Spring Festival travel peak is expected around February 14, with a notable difference in travel patterns between those flying and those taking trains, as air travelers tend to depart a day later [4] - New high-speed rail lines have significantly reduced travel times, leading to a 175% increase in bookings for routes like Shenyang to Baishan [4] - The overall travel period for the Spring Festival in 2026 is extended to 40 days, allowing for a more relaxed travel experience [4]

Group 1: Technology Sector Developments - Alibaba's "Tongyun Ge" concept integrates "Cloud + AI + Chips" as a strategic support triangle for future technology initiatives, emphasizing AI as a core driver of change in cloud computing over the next decade [2] - ByteDance's CEO Liang Rubo announced the company's 2026 focus on "climbing to new heights," highlighting the importance of AI opportunities and the need to enhance talent density and incentives [5] - Waymo plans to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing services in London by Q4 2023, expanding its operations internationally despite regulatory challenges [7] Group 2: Market and Company News - Guizhou Moutai denied rumors of participating in SpaceX's Series A funding, with its stock closing at 1437.72 yuan per share, up 8.61%, and a market capitalization exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [3] - Byte's new "Doubao" smartphone is expected to be released in late Q2 2026, with significant improvements over its predecessor, developed in collaboration with ZTE Nubia [4] - Meituan's new "one-shot" verification feature requires new restaurant partners to upload unedited videos showcasing their premises, aimed at enhancing platform integrity [8] Group 3: Industry Collaborations - Black Sesame Intelligence and Baidu's "萝卜快跑" signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop a collaborative ecosystem for autonomous driving, focusing on technology research and product development [11] - Shanghai Xixi Intelligent Technology completed several million yuan in angel financing, aimed at integrating AI with flexible robotics for food processing solutions [12] Group 4: Consumer Electronics - Apple's iPhone 16 was the best-selling smartphone globally in 2025, with Apple and Samsung dominating the top ten list, holding seven and three positions respectively, indicating strong market leadership [10]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai Sauce-flavored Liquor Marketing Co., Ltd. has announced an upgraded partnership with Meituan Flash Purchase, expanding the number of official stores to nearly 3,000 [2] - The collaboration aims to enhance user experience by focusing on "genuine products and exceptional service," with plans to establish capabilities for source tracing, official authentication, and one-on-one urgent delivery by 2026 [2] Summary by Categories Partnership Expansion - The number of official stores on Meituan Flash Purchase has rapidly increased from over 1,000 to nearly 3,000, covering 245 cities nationwide [2] Future Plans - By 2026, the partnership will focus on building capabilities for source tracing, official authentication, and urgent delivery services to enhance the purchasing experience for consumers [2]