【导读】 对话中金公司总裁王曙光｜金融报国的时代答卷：一家国有投行的三十年坚守与突围 中国基金报记者 莫琳 编者按： 三十载踔厉奋发，中国资本市场从筚路蓝缕到全球瞩目，与改革开放的历史进程同频共振，与实体经济的高质量发展血脉相连。 在此期间，国有金融机构始终是服务国家战略的中流砥柱，而中金公司自1995年诞生之日起，便将"以国为怀"的基因刻入血脉。从开创央 企海外上市先河，到助力科创板、注册制等重大改革落地；从服务企业 " 走出去 " 的国际化征程，到深耕科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融 的 " 五篇大文章 " ，中金始终以投行专业之力，在中国特色金融发展之路上砥砺前行。 站在"十五五"规划谋篇布局的关键节点，"培育一流投资银行和投资机构"的战略目标，为资本市场赋予了前所未有的历史使命。此次本刊 专访中金公司总裁王曙光，深入探讨一家国有投行如何在服务新质生产力、高水平对外开放、防范化解风险的时代命题中，书写三十而立 的崭新答卷。 2025年，是中国国际金融股份有限公司创立 的第 三十周年。三十年深耕，中金公司始终以服务国家战略为己任，在助力实体经济发展、 推动资本市场改革中扮演着重要角色。 在这具有特殊意义的一年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current report from the CICC macro asset team suggests that the Federal Reserve remains in a loose monetary cycle, and the U.S. economy is facing stagflation, indicating that the gold bull market may continue until a turning point in U.S. policy and economy is observed [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The gold bull market may not have ended as the Federal Reserve's policies and the U.S. economy have not shown signs of a turning point [1] - Market volatility is expected to increase as gold prices have diverged from fundamental indicators, making specific price predictions challenging [1] - A potential turning point is anticipated in early 2026, where rising inflation and marginal economic improvement may lead the Federal Reserve to slow its easing pace, which could temporarily pressure gold prices [1] Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Gold prices recently surpassed $4,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high due to three main factors: 1. The Federal Reserve's resumption of the easing cycle, having cut rates three times by 25 basis points each and planning to purchase short-term government bonds starting in December [2] 2. A decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar, with the fiscal deficit rising to around 6% post-pandemic, leading to increased debt risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] 3. Escalating global geopolitical risks, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have seen even greater increases than gold, influenced by industrial supply and demand factors [3] - The demand for silver is expected to rise in sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and electronic equipment, while supply expansion remains limited, leading to tighter supply-demand dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the significant rise in gold prices this year has led to high valuations, and the expectation of a phase-out of the Federal Reserve's easing policy by early 2026 may pose risks [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will eventually accelerate easing again next year, suggesting that a notable pullback in gold prices early next year could present a buying opportunity [1] - Following the substantial increase in gold prices, other commodities such as copper and silver have also shown strong performance, reflecting the liquidity spillover effect from gold [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Strategy - Commodities can serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks and the overheating of the U.S. economy, leading to a recommendation to adjust commodity allocations to a benchmark level, with a particular focus on non-ferrous metals [1] - Metals like silver have a smaller market size and lower liquidity compared to gold, which increases the risk of volatility if gold prices fluctuate next year; therefore, it is advised to implement risk control measures to avoid chasing prices blindly [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a seven-day rise, closing up 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also saw gains of 0.33% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Active sectors included commercial aerospace, robotics, semiconductor supply chain, and paper manufacturing, while precious metals, Hainan, and energy metals faced declines [1] Group 2: Mining Industry Insights - Huatai Securities expressed optimism about the trend of mining service and equipment companies transitioning towards mining development, driven by high metal prices [2] - The transition models include equity participation, control, and EPC+O models, which are expected to become significant forces in mining development [2] - Smaller mining owners are keen to develop but face financial and technical constraints, creating opportunities for mining service companies to assist in development [2] Group 3: Medical Device Sector Strategy - Guojin Securities highlighted that the investment strategy for the medical device sector in 2026 will focus on overseas expansion and innovation [3] - Key areas of interest include leading companies in digestive endoscope consumables with strong overseas market expansion, home medical device leaders with innovative wearable products, and differentiated innovation in cardiovascular intervention products [3] Group 4: Photovoltaic Industry Outlook - CICC noted that the photovoltaic sector is expected to see marginal improvements in supply-demand relationships by 2026, with leading companies likely to turn losses into profits [4] - The challenges in photovoltaic consumption are prompting domestic electricity market reforms and the development of adjustable power sources, with energy storage benefiting from both domestic and international market conditions [4]

Group 1 - CICC suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, noting significant price increases and high valuations, with potential risks from a tapering of the Fed's easing expectations in early 2026 [1] - The report indicates that a significant pullback in gold prices early next year could present a buying opportunity, as the Fed is expected to accelerate easing again [1] - Other commodities like copper and silver have also shown strong performance, reflecting liquidity spillover effects from gold, and commodities can hedge against geopolitical risks and overheating in the US economy [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities highlights a trend of exploration, mining service, and equipment manufacturers transitioning towards mining development due to high metal prices, with various models such as equity participation and EPC+O being utilized [2] - This transition is driven by the strong development willingness of small to medium-sized mine owners, who face funding and technical constraints, necessitating external support for development [2] - Mining service and equipment companies are expected to play a significant role in developing small mines through their operational experience, suggesting a promising future for this sector [2] Group 3 - Open Source Securities states that the European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets will not impact the long-term trend of electrification in Europe [3] - The proposal includes incentives for small electric vehicles and constraints on zero-emission vehicles for corporate fleets, aimed at boosting electric vehicle sales in Europe [3] - The introduction of new generation pure electric models by automakers from late 2025 to the first half of 2026 is expected to drive significant growth in the European electric vehicle market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve remains accommodative, and the U.S. economy is facing stagflation, indicating that the bull market for gold may continue until a clear turning point in U.S. policy and economy is observed [1] Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has seen significant price increases this year, leading to a high valuation, with expectations that the Fed's easing will taper off by early 2026, which could pose risks [1] - If gold prices experience a notable correction early next year, it may present a buying opportunity for investors looking to increase their allocation [1] Group 2: Broader Commodity Trends - Following the substantial rise in gold prices, other commodities such as copper and silver have also shown strong performance, reflecting the liquidity spillover effect from gold [1] - Commodities can serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks and the overheating of the U.S. economy, prompting a recommendation to adjust commodity allocations to benchmark levels, with a particular focus on non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Risk Considerations - The report highlights that metals like silver have a smaller market size and lower liquidity compared to gold, which could lead to greater volatility and correction risks if gold prices fluctuate next year [1] - It is advised to implement risk control measures to avoid impulsive buying during price surges [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that gold prices may experience a correction in early 2026 due to a potential tapering of the Federal Reserve's easing expectations, which could pose a risk [1] - The report suggests that if gold prices decline significantly in early 2026, it may present a buying opportunity for investors to increase their allocation to commodities [1] - Following a strong rise in gold prices, other commodities like copper and silver have also performed well, indicating a liquidity spillover effect from gold [1] Group 2 - The report recommends increasing commodity allocation to a neutral level, particularly favoring non-ferrous metals, as they can hedge against geopolitical risks and overheating in the U.S. economy [1] - It is noted that metals like silver have a smaller market size and lower liquidity compared to gold, which may lead to greater risks if gold prices fluctuate [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of risk management to avoid blindly chasing price increases in the commodities market [1]

中金公司指出，光伏2026年有望实现供需关系的边际改善，各环节龙头有望扭亏为盈，具备困境反转的 投资机会。由于光伏消纳问题突出，倒逼国内电力市场化及调节性电源发展，储能迎海内外景气共振。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in gold prices, which have recently surpassed $4,500 per ounce, driven by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's resumption of a loose monetary policy, the declining credibility of the US dollar, and escalating global geopolitical risks [2][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has restarted its easing cycle after maintaining interest rates for nine months, having cut rates three times by 25 basis points each since September [2]. - The Fed's forward guidance indicates potential further rate cuts in 2026, contributing to a more accommodative monetary environment that supports gold prices [2]. Group 2: Declining Credibility of the US Dollar - The US fiscal deficit has risen to around 6% post-pandemic, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, leading to increased debt risks [4]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have grown due to political interference, particularly with the upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair, which has contributed to a 10% decline in the US dollar index this year [4]. Group 3: Global Geopolitical Risks - Recent US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have escalated into maritime interception actions, while the Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, increasing geopolitical tensions [6]. - Gold's safe-haven attributes are benefiting from these geopolitical risks, with silver prices rising even more significantly due to industrial demand factors [6]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The current gold bull market has lasted for three years, with a 2.7 times increase in price, but the article cautions against assuming perpetual price increases, emphasizing the importance of data models for investment decisions [8]. - Historical analysis shows that gold bull and bear markets have relatively balanced durations, with gold experiencing the longest single bear market among major asset classes [8]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - The article suggests that while the gold bull market may continue due to the current economic conditions, the price has already exceeded the short-term valuation model, indicating potential for volatility [18]. - The long-term price forecast for gold has been raised to between $3,300 and $5,000 per ounce, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [16]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends maintaining an overweight position in gold while being cautious of potential price corrections in early 2026 as the Fed's easing expectations may taper [19]. - There is a suggestion to adjust commodity allocations to standard levels and to remain overweight in Chinese stocks, while being cautious with bond investments due to high valuations [20].

Core Insights - The capital market has shown positive trends this year, with active investment and financing, particularly through private placements (定增) which have become a significant fundraising method for listed companies [1] - The total amount raised through private placements in A-shares has increased by over 375% year-on-year, providing more business opportunities for securities firms [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 25, 153 listed companies have implemented private placements, raising a total of 814.25 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 375.14% [2] - Major banks such as China Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and others have led the market in fundraising, collectively raising 520 billion yuan [2] - The surge in the private placement market is attributed to multiple factors, including policy support, macroeconomic recovery, and strong investor confidence [2] Group 2: Securities Firms' Involvement - A total of 33 securities firms have participated in private placements this year, with CITIC Securities sponsoring 17 companies and earning 209 million yuan in underwriting and advisory fees [2] - Securities firms have engaged in 141 instances of private placements, with a total investment of 10.742 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 69.65% [3] - Leading firms like GF Securities and Guotai Junan have been actively involved, with GF participating in 38 placements and investing 2.735 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Investment Trends and Outcomes - The private placements have attracted significant interest from securities firms, which have utilized their research capabilities to select quality investment targets, thereby boosting market confidence [3] - Among the 69 companies that received investments, several have seen their stock prices double compared to their placement prices, indicating strong market performance post-placement [4] - The semiconductor industry has been a focal point, with 9 companies in this sector participating in private placements, reflecting the industry's growth potential [4]