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光大证券:钨价将于高位运行 上游矿企持续受益
智通财经网· 2025-12-31 06:11
Core Viewpoint - The supply of tungsten concentrate in China is expected to continue tightening, with stable demand and growth points in military and photovoltaic sectors. Despite a potential short-term price correction, tungsten prices are projected to remain high in 2026-2027, benefiting related listed companies [1]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - China's tungsten concentrate production accounted for 80.77% of global output in 2023, with reserves making up 52.27%, both ranking first in the world [1]. - The mining of tungsten is subject to control and quota systems, with the first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 down 6.45% year-on-year, indicating a long-term trend of slowing quotas [2]. - The proportion of over-extracted tungsten in China's total production has decreased from 35.78% in 2015 to 12.63% in 2024 [2]. - The grade of tungsten ore has been declining, with the average grade dropping from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2016 [2]. Group 2: Demand Factors - In 2024, domestic tungsten demand is expected to be divided as follows: hard alloys (58.51%), tungsten materials (22.61%), tungsten special steel (15.05%), and tungsten chemicals (3.83%) [3]. - Demand for hard alloys has been steadily increasing, and military spending is expected to drive further growth in tungsten demand due to ongoing global conflicts [3]. - Photovoltaic tungsten wire, while small in volume, is anticipated to grow rapidly [3]. Group 3: Price and Substitution Effects - Short-term price increases in tungsten may lead to some substitution, with alternatives for hard alloy tools including high-speed steel and ceramics, and for photovoltaic tungsten wire, steel wire [4]. - The position of hard alloys in the tool industry is expected to remain strong due to advancements in digitalization and better management practices [4]. - As silicon prices stabilize, the cost-effectiveness of tungsten wire is expected to improve, leading to a recovery in affected demand [4]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Future supply-demand balance assessments indicate that both China's and global tungsten markets will remain in a tight balance, with supply-demand gaps projected at -3.78%, -4.61%, and -1.46% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The global supply-demand gaps are projected at -3.11%, -3.78%, and -1.48% for the same years [5]. - Rising mining costs due to environmental pressures are expected to support high tungsten prices [5].
年度行情收官 10家券商金股组合收益率亮眼超过50%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-31 01:28
Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of stock recommendations from various brokerages, with 10 brokerages achieving over 50% returns in 2025, showcasing their ability to identify and recommend stocks early in the market cycle [2][3]. Group 1: Brokerage Performance - The highest cumulative return was achieved by Guoyuan Securities at 83.73%, followed by Northeast Securities and Kaiyuan Securities with returns of 67.47% and 67% respectively [2]. - Other brokerages such as Dongxing Securities, Huaxin Securities, and China Merchants Securities also reported returns exceeding 60%, while Everbright Securities, Dongguan Securities, Guotai Junan, and Changcheng Securities had returns above 50% [2]. Group 2: Stock Selection Strategy - The success of these brokerages is attributed to their strategy of identifying stocks at low points and consistently recommending them, which has led to significant gains [4][5]. - For instance, Kaiyuan Securities recommended Xinyisheng for four consecutive months, resulting in a total increase of 440% from May to August [6]. Group 3: Popular Stocks - Tencent Holdings emerged as the most recommended stock, being favored by around seven brokerages each month, making it the most popular stock of the year [7]. - The report indicates that the most popular stocks varied throughout the year, with technology stocks dominating in the first quarter, consumer stocks in the second, financial stocks in the third, and a return to technology stocks in the fourth quarter [7].
年度行情今日收官 十家券商金股组合收益率超百分之五十
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-30 18:19
Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of brokerage firms' recommended stocks, known as "golden stocks," which have achieved over 50% returns in 2025, with some firms excelling by identifying and recommending stocks early in their upward trends [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Golden Stocks - As of December 29, 2025, 10 brokerage firms' golden stock portfolios recorded returns exceeding 50%, with the highest being 83.73% from Guoyuan Securities [3]. - Other notable performers include Northeast Securities and Kaiyuan Securities, with returns of 67.47% and 67%, respectively [3]. - The golden stock strategy has become a mature business for many brokerage firms, showcasing their research capabilities and market insights [3]. Group 2: Strategies for Success - Early identification of stocks at low prices and consistent recommendations have been key strategies for achieving high returns [4]. - For instance, Kaiyuan Securities recommended Xinyisheng for four consecutive months, resulting in a total increase of 440% from May to August [5]. - Guoyuan Securities focused on sectors like media, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with significant monthly gains from stocks like Giant Network and JiBit [4]. Group 3: Popularity of Tencent - Tencent Holdings emerged as the most recommended stock, being favored by around seven brokerage firms monthly, making it the top "golden stock" of the year [2][6]. - The popularity of stocks varies by quarter, with technology stocks dominating in the first quarter, consumer stocks in the second, financial stocks in the third, and a return to technology stocks in the fourth quarter [6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Recommendations - The article notes that not all popular stocks achieve high success rates, with less than 40% of the most recommended A-share stocks showing gains in the same month they were recommended [7].
最新投行评价结果出炉,A类12家
第一财经· 2025-12-30 13:38
Core Viewpoint - The Securities Association of China released the performance evaluation results for investment banking, bond underwriting, and financial advisory services for the year 2024, indicating a total of 93 securities firms engaged in investment banking, with 12 classified as A-level, 66 as B-level, and 15 as C-level [1][10]. Investment Banking - Among the 93 securities firms involved in investment banking, 12 firms received an A classification, including Dongwu Securities, Guojin Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [1][3]. - The majority of firms, 66, were classified as B, while 15 firms were rated C [1][10]. Bond Underwriting - For the bond underwriting and entrusted management business, 95 securities firms were evaluated, with 14 classified as A, 62 as B, and 19 as C [5][7]. - A-level firms in this category include Caixin Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Guotai Junan [5][7]. Financial Advisory - In the financial advisory sector, 30 securities firms were evaluated, with 5 classified as A, 19 as B, and 6 as C [5][10]. - A-level firms in financial advisory include Huatai United and Galaxy Securities [8][9]. Overall Evaluation - The evaluation results reflect the overall quality of practice among the firms and align with market expectations, promoting improvements in operational quality, internal control, and service capabilities [10].
天迈科技连亏4年3季 2019年上市募3亿光大证券保荐
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-30 03:07
2021年至2024年,公司营业收入分别为2.33亿元、3.29亿元、2.20亿元、1.64亿元,归属于上市公司股东 的净利润分别为-3,726.75万元、-851.05万元、-5,007.37万元、-5,930.62万元,归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润分别为-4,980.51万元、-2,089.50万元、-5,487.12万元、-6,082.75万元,经营活动产生的 现金流量净额为-9,188.37万元、2,022.31万元、-4,030.40万元、843.71万元。 中国经济网北京12月30日讯 天迈科技(300807.SZ)2025年三季度报告显示,2025年前三季,公司实现营 业收入8768.63万元,同比增长57.08%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润-1535.07万元,同比增长70.97%;归属 于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润-1961.25万元,同比增长63.44%;经营活动产生的现金流量净 额为840.43万元,同比增长144.69%。 2019年12月19日,天迈科技在深交所创业板上市,发行股票1700万股,发行价格为17.68元/股,保荐人 (主承销商)为光大证券股 ...
【光大研究每日速递】20251230
光大证券研究· 2025-12-29 23:04
Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience a震荡上涨, with major indices showing recovery in both volume and liquidity. Weekly financing increased significantly, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 36.34 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference in December [5][6]. Industry Insights - The copper price outlook remains positive, supported by the National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on optimizing traditional industries, including copper smelting. Despite a decrease in cable companies' operating rates, the supply-demand dynamics for copper are expected to remain tight into 2026, favoring price increases [5]. - The steel sector is facing a high inventory level for hot-rolled coils, the highest in five years. The Central Economic Work Conference has reiterated the need for controlling crude steel production, which may lead to a more balanced supply and improved profitability for the steel sector in the long term [6]. Utilities Sector - The annual long-term contract bidding results in Guangdong met expectations, with the comprehensive on-grid electricity price remaining stable. Additionally, the capacity subsidy in Shanghai has increased to 165 yuan per kilowatt for 2026. As of November, the total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative installed power generation capacity rose by 17.1% year-on-year [8]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The approval of oral semaglutide for weight loss by the FDA is expected to catalyze industry growth. Recent clinical data from Structure and Gilead Pharmaceuticals has shown promising results, and collaborations between Pfizer and Fosun Pharma for oral small molecule weight loss drugs are underway. Furthermore, Shiyao Innovation has announced a platform integration for its GLP-1 business [8].
佳华科技跌8.1% 2020年上市募9.8亿元光大证券保荐
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-29 09:00
Core Viewpoint - Jiahua Technology's stock price has dropped significantly, currently trading at 39.80 yuan, reflecting an 8.10% decline and is in a state of breaking the issue price [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiahua Technology was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on March 20, 2020, with an initial issue price of 50.81 yuan per share [1] - The company issued a total of 19.334 million shares during its IPO, with a total fundraising amount of 982 million yuan and a net fundraising amount of 864 million yuan, exceeding the originally planned fundraising by 364 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - The initial fundraising target was set at 500 million yuan, intended for the construction of an AI big data system for atmospheric environment and an AI research and development system [1] - The total issuance costs for the IPO amounted to 118 million yuan (excluding VAT), with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 96.343 million yuan [1]
光大证券:正极减产挺价有望助力锂价传导 储能需求预期提振改善供需格局
智通财经网· 2025-12-29 06:26
Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing price negotiations between lithium iron phosphate manufacturers and downstream battery cell factories, indicating strong demand in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Negotiations and Market Dynamics - Lithium iron phosphate companies are in the second round of price negotiations with downstream battery manufacturers, while many other material manufacturers have yet to finalize the first round of negotiations [1][3]. - The adjustment of the spot trading settlement price model by Tianqi Lithium reflects the robust demand from downstream sectors [1][3]. Group 2: Production Cuts and Supply Impact - Companies such as Hunan Youneng, Deyang Nano, and Wanrun New Energy have announced production cuts, with Hunan Youneng reducing 15,000 to 35,000 tons of cathode material and Wanrun New Energy cutting 5,000 to 20,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate [2]. - The production cuts are expected to support price stability in the market, potentially allowing lithium prices to rise and be transmitted downstream [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Outlook - Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for 19 consecutive weeks, with a current inventory of 109,773 tons, marking a reduction of 652 tons from the previous week [4]. - The total production capacity of lithium batteries in China is projected to be approximately 210 GWh in January 2026, a 4.5% decrease from the previous period, which is better than market expectations [4]. Group 4: Energy Storage Demand and Future Projections - The domestic energy storage sector is expected to benefit from declining costs and new policies, leading to improved profitability and increased demand [5]. - Global shipments of energy storage lithium batteries are forecasted to reach 620 GWh in 2025, a 77% year-on-year increase, and are expected to grow to 960 GWh in 2026, representing a 54.8% increase [5]. Group 5: Future Technologies and Demand Drivers - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to drive new demand for lithium, with projected shipments of 5.1 GWh in 2025 and nearly 80 GWh by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 64% [6]. - The lithium consumption per kilowatt-hour for solid-state batteries is expected to double compared to current lithium battery systems, further increasing lithium demand [6]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies with significant growth potential in the mining sector include Tianhua New Energy, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Cangge Mining, Salt Lake Co., Yahua Group, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium [7].
【十大券商一周策略】A股跨年行情已经启动,新的主线浮出水面
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 15:19
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].
光大证券:多重支撑护航 春季行情行稳致远
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 08:12
Group 1 - A-shares showed strong performance this week, with major indices generally rising, particularly the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and the Small and Medium 100, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 had smaller gains [1][6] - The current valuation of the Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A indices is relatively high, with their PE (TTM) percentile exceeding 85% since 2010, as of December 26, 2025 [1][6] - Small-cap growth style outperformed this week, with significant gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense, while sectors like beauty care and social services saw declines [1][6] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by favorable policies and increased capital inflows, with historical patterns indicating a "spring rally" [3][8] - The trading volume has increased, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday, with a total weekly turnover of 9.83 trillion yuan, marking a six-week high [3][8] - Policy support is anticipated to boost market confidence and attract various types of capital, with a focus on growth and consumption sectors, particularly TMT and advanced manufacturing during the "spring rally" [4][9] Group 3 - Recent policy developments include the People's Bank of China announcing a one-time credit repair policy, and the housing and urban-rural development meeting outlining real estate priorities for 2026 [2][7] - The issuance of L3 level autonomous driving vehicle licenses in Beijing marks a significant step in the automotive industry, alongside the 2025 Computing Power Internet Conference held in Chengdu [2][7] - The EU has extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months until July 31, 2026, and Japan has finalized its budget for the 2026 fiscal year, setting a new historical high [2][7]