格隆汇12月26日｜据每经，光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生认为，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，上涨 动力源于政策、产业与资金三重共振：政策端，释放产业支持、内需提振等红利；产业端，AI、先进 制造等领域技术突破催生高成长企业；资金端，居民"存款搬家"向中低风险偏好延伸，中长期资金入市 机制持续完善。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ...

2025年，A股市场走出近年来少见的低波动慢牛，上证指数也时隔10年一度回到4000点上方。而在2024 年末，光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生在接受《每日经济新闻》记者专访时就曾旗帜鲜明地表示继续看 好2025年的市场。 那么，2026年A股大势是否有望迎来"三连阳"？"9·24"行情以来，在"科技牛"主导行情的背景下，未来 市场风格是否将发生一定切换？2026年市场又有哪些核心主线值得关注？在"十五五"规划开局之年，政 策将有哪些值得期待的发力点？带着这些投资者关注的问题，近日《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称 NBD）再度对张宇生进行了独家专访。 张宇生：站在当前时点，我对2026年A股市场依然保持积极乐观，核心判断是"慢牛格局延续，结构机 会凸显"。前期市场上涨源于政策支持与资金面改善的共振，而2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，各 项支撑条件将更加扎实。宏观层面有政策红利持续释放，产业层面有新质生产力加速培育，资金层面有 居民资产配置向权益市场迁移的长期趋势，这些因素将共同托举市场。虽然过程中可能会有阶段性波 动，但整体向上的趋势值得期待。 NBD：如果2026年A股市场仍然有机会，您觉得市场上涨的动力来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that the electricity trading results for Guangdong Province in 2026 are in line with expectations, with potential profitability pressure on thermal power units, while the spot market is expected to provide performance increments [1]. Group 1: Electricity Pricing and Trading - The average transaction price for thermal power is 372.14 cents/kWh, down 5.03% year-on-year, which is close to the market reference price's downward adjustment of 20% [1]. - The green electricity transaction price is 372.21 cents/kWh, with an environmental premium of 4.93 cents/kWh, leading to a comprehensive price of 377.14 cents/kWh, down 3.88% year-on-year, but higher than the mechanism price of 360 cents/kWh [1]. - The trading volume of green electricity in 2026 is expected to increase by 17.74% year-on-year, reaching 4.779 billion kWh compared to 4.059 billion kWh in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Capacity Pricing and Overall Electricity Price - Starting from January 2026, the coal power capacity subsidy in Guangdong will increase from 100 yuan/kW to 165 yuan/kW, resulting in a capacity price increase of 0.016 yuan/kWh year-on-year [2]. - The annual comprehensive electricity price for coal power units in Guangdong is projected to be 0.414 yuan/kWh, down 0.78% year-on-year, indicating stability [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The electricity supply-demand situation in Guangdong is expected to remain loose in 2026, continuing the trend from 2025, with an anticipated increase in installed capacity [3]. - The spot market prices are expected to exhibit greater volatility due to the large-scale entry of green electricity, allowing operators to profit through flexible strategies [3]. - The functional premium of thermal power is expected to be highlighted through the spot market as green electricity enters the market in large quantities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a positive trend with all three major indices closing higher, indicating a potential upward momentum as the year-end approaches [3][11]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.47% to close at 3959.62, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.33% to 13531.41, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.30% to 3239.34 [4]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.92 trillion, an increase of 443 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3700 stocks rising [8]. Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Shenjian Co. achieving six consecutive trading limits, and nearly 30 stocks in this sector hitting the daily limit [5]. - The robotics sector also saw significant gains, with stocks such as Chaojie Co. and Haoshi Electromechanical reaching their daily limits [6]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the aerospace, automotive, and insurance sectors, with notable net inflows into stocks like Aerospace Electronics (17.34 billion), Goldwind Technology (8.22 billion), and Sunshine Power (7.78 billion) [10]. - Conversely, there were net outflows from the electronics, communications, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with stocks like Shenghong Technology and Aerospace Development facing significant sell-offs [10]. Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Construction expressed that the Shanghai Composite Index is challenging the 4000-point mark, suggesting a focus on performance as the year ends [11]. - Guodu Securities indicated that the cross-year market trend has begun, with an expectation for the upward trend to continue, particularly favoring technology growth stocks [12]. - Everbright Securities noted the sustained market vitality with a seven-day upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index, anticipating continued capital inflow and a bullish outlook for technology growth sectors [12].

息差运行：NIM仍将承压运行，降幅或收窄至6bp左右。资产端，有效信贷需求实质性转暖之前，预估 新发生贷款利率仍将下行，但鉴于成本、定价行为监管等约束，新发放贷款定价下行走势明显放缓。负 债端，考虑22-23年集中吸收的长期定期存款逐步到期，叠加自律机制点状控制和银行自身负债管理能 力提升，负债成本下行对息差收窄压力将形成缓释。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，2025年银行面临有效信贷需求不足，盈利增长平缓。2026年 作为"十五五"开局之年，预计货币政策保持适度宽松，降息降准可期。信贷结构延续"对公强、零售 弱"，息差仍承压但降幅或收窄。银行板块"高股息、低估值"逻辑依然是投资主线，长期资金配置需求 有望持续。 光大证券主要观点如下： 2025年银行经营仍面临有效信贷需求不足问题 量、价、险平衡难度加大，贷款"量难增、价易降"对利息收入形成挤压，银行体系更多依靠加强债券流 转提升非息收入贡献，同时，拨备计提放缓亦有助提升银行业绩稳定性。上市银行1~3Q营业收入、归 母净利润同比增速分别为0.9%、1.5%，预计2025年全年营收、盈利增速维持小幅正增，同1-3Q大体相 当。 2026年："十五五" ...

Group 1: Overseas News - US stock market has seen five consecutive days of gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, Nasdaq up 0.22%, and S&P 500 up 0.32%. Major tech companies like Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon saw increases of up to 0.53%, while Tesla, Google A, and Nvidia experienced declines of up to 0.32% [1] - Nvidia denied reports of a $200 million acquisition of AI chip startup Groq, stating that only a licensing agreement for inference technology was reached [1] - Samsung and SK Hynix are reportedly raising HBM3E prices by nearly 20% for next year [1] - Sanofi plans to acquire US vaccine company Dynavax for $2.2 billion to enhance its adult vaccine portfolio [1] Group 2: Domestic Major Events - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments issued opinions to support the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, exploring cross-border payment trials for digital RMB with Singapore [2][5] Group 3: Market Strategy Insights - Everbright Securities noted that the Shanghai Composite Index has shown strong performance with six consecutive days of gains, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and potential continued inflow of funds, particularly favoring technology growth stocks [3] Group 4: Real Estate Policy Changes - Beijing's new real estate policy, effective December 24, 2025, includes four main aspects: relaxing social security requirements for non-Beijing residents, supporting multi-child families in housing needs, optimizing commercial loan interest rates, and lowering the down payment ratio for second homes [4][5] Group 5: Digital Currency Developments - The digital RMB aims to address inefficiencies and high costs in traditional cross-border payments, with optimistic projections for transaction volumes reaching 162.4 trillion yuan by 2030 [6]

Group 1: Market Concerns - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026 may lead to a concentrated sell-off of gold, causing technical adjustments[2] - Historical adjustments in 2024 and 2025 due to rising gold prices did not significantly impact the market[2] - The adjustment involves a relatively small fund size of $6.5 billion, which is limited compared to the average daily trading volume of over $400 billion in the gold market[2][14] Group 2: Index Rebalancing Details - The Bloomberg Commodity Index aims for diversity and balance, with annual adjustments based on trading volume and global market value[3] - The target weight for gold in 2026 is set at 14.9%, down from an actual weight of 20.88%, indicating a reduction of approximately 6 percentage points[9][14] - The rebalancing process will occur over five trading days, allowing for a smooth transition without significant market disruption[2][14] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in January 2026, driven by potential interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to government shutdown risks[20] - Historical data shows that during previous rebalancing periods, gold prices remained relatively stable despite adjustments in weight[8][12]

Economic Growth - The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is +4.3%, exceeding expectations of +3.3% and the previous value of +3.8%[1] - The annualized quarterly personal consumption expenditure growth rate for Q3 2025 is +3.5%, higher than the expected +2.7% and the previous +2.5%[1] - The core PCE price index for Q3 2025 shows an annualized quarterly growth rate of +2.9%, matching expectations and up from +2.6% in the previous quarter[1] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence index rose to 61.7 in July 2025, the highest since March 2025, contributing to a recovery in personal consumption[3] - The Q3 2025 personal consumption expenditure growth rate of +3.5% is the highest recorded in 2025, indicating a rebound in consumer spending[3] Investment Trends - Private investment in Q3 2025 recorded a quarterly growth rate of -0.3%, an improvement from -13.8% in the previous quarter[4] - Fixed investment growth rate for non-residential investment is +2.8%, while residential investment continues to decline at -5.1%[4] Net Exports - The "import rush" effect has weakened, with imports showing a negative growth rate of -4.7% in Q3 2025, while exports increased by +8.8%[6] - Net exports contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3 2025, driven by improved export demand from trade negotiations[6] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by +0.2%, S&P 500 by +0.5%, and Nasdaq by +0.6%[2] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.18%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.48%[2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" in 2026, driven by valuation recovery, profit growth, and a return to main themes, with a focus on the "Four AI Main Lines" framework to identify structural opportunities in the tech sector during the AI era [1][2]. Investment Focus - The Hang Seng Index is anticipated to regain upward momentum, with the Hang Seng Tech Index expected to outperform the broader market. The tech sector, representing core assets of China's new economy, is projected to be the strongest driver of market rebound [2]. Main Line 1: Internet Giants - AI is shifting competition among internet giants from traffic to ecosystem capabilities. Cloud business is accelerating due to AI demand, with capital expenditure doubling and stable profit margins. Advertising is seeing immediate monetization benefits from AI, with click-through rates increasing by 15%-20%. Key investment targets include Tencent, Alibaba-W, and Kuaishou, which are well-positioned to leverage technology and data [3]. Main Line 2: AI Computing Power Industry Chain - Leading companies are consistently exceeding expectations, with strong capital expenditure from cloud vendors and tight chip supply countering "bubble" concerns. High infrastructure investment and high ROI are justified, indicating a robust AI industry cycle. Key opportunities include communication networking benefiting from global tech upgrades, semiconductor manufacturing for domestic substitution, and critical equipment and materials for computing power upgrades [4]. Main Line 3: AI Applications - Investment in AI applications has entered a phase where performance is paramount. Clear signals of commercialization acceleration are observed in key sectors such as SaaS, content ecosystems, and advertising. The evolution of enterprise tools into "intelligent agents" is driving ARPU growth, while AIGC is lowering creation costs, leading to synchronized user and revenue growth [5]. Main Line 4: AI End-User and Robotics - The year 2026 is projected to be pivotal for AI-defined hardware and large-scale production of robots. Hardware manufacturers like Apple and Xiaomi are enhancing AI capabilities, while tech giants like OpenAI and Google are entering hardware markets. The investment landscape includes a comprehensive mapping of the robotics industry chain, highlighting opportunities from upstream expansion and capital empowerment, with humanoid robots like Tesla's Optimus expected to reach significant production levels [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights that ABN products currently do not exhibit significant premium compared to other asset-backed securities, but they still maintain a yield spread advantage over certain ordinary credit bonds, making them a viable option for enhancing returns in a market with scarce high-yield assets [2] - ABN products generally experience lower valuation volatility than ordinary credit bonds, providing a degree of resilience against overall industry shocks, which aids in optimizing portfolio stability [2] Market Overview - The A-share market showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, with major indices experiencing a contraction in trading volume compared to the previous week. The net inflow of funds into equity ETFs reached 55.353 billion yuan, with large-cap thematic ETFs being the primary direction for net inflows [3] - Following the Central Economic Work Conference in December, market trading sentiment has improved, and the funding situation has shown continuous improvement, laying a foundation for further market upward movement [3] Market Data Summary - The closing values and percentage changes for major indices are as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3919.98 (+0.07%) - CSI 300: 4620.73 (+0.20%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 13368.99 (+0.27%) - ChiNext Index: 3205.01 (+0.41%) [4] - In the commodity market, gold closed at 1014.24 (+1.34%), while copper and zinc showed slight declines [4] Valuation and Rating System - The report outlines a rating system for companies and industries, with categories ranging from "Buy" (expected return exceeding 15% over 6-12 months) to "Sell" (expected return lagging by over 15%) [5]