销售与管理视频号开通啦 欢迎关注并留下您睿智犀利的评论吧 ----------------------------------------- - - 作者： 智先生 来源：智先生（ID：zhixs10） 要说2024年有什么天坑行业排行的话，餐饮业估计能名列前茅。 很多地区的"排队王"都陷入了摆烂的局面，客流量肉眼可见变得稀疏起来，预订率下降，导致营业额也大幅缩水。 有餐饮人在网上自嘲， "开店时身上有二十多万，关店时能去到四十多万，可惜是负债"。 数据是最直观的。 哪怕它们纾尊降贵，推出298、398的"平民套餐"，也依然挡不住大规模关停潮来袭，因为老百姓对米其林评价已经祛魅。 当行业环境不济时，大部分企业首先会考虑加入红海战场，开卷价格大战，虽然"以价换量"不是什么新鲜把戏了，但胜在有用。 一部分餐饮头部借此实现了逆增长，比如像海底捞，萨莉亚、瑞幸咖啡、百胜中国等佼佼者。 不过仔细翻看各上市公司的财报，可以发现一点，能实现同比增长的寥寥无几， 与其说逆增长，不如说维持营收平衡更贴切 。 根据国家统计局数据，今年1-8月份，餐饮收入34998亿元，同比增长6.6%，从大盘来看，还算可以，最起码像房地产、家装 ...

Investment Rating - Upgraded to "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862 HK) with a target price of HKD 19 5 based on 19x 2025 P/E or 10x 2025 EV/EBITDA [2] Core Views - Haidilao's multi-brand strategy visibility has improved with the new brand "Yanqing" expected to accelerate store openings in the next two years [2] - The company plans to open 40-50 new stores in 2H24 and expects net store growth for the full year with annual store openings reaching mid-to-high single-digit percentages of existing stores in 2025-2026 [2] - The new brand "Yanqing" is expected to leverage synergies with Haidilao in procurement labor and rental costs with plans to open 50 stores in 2024 and 150 stores in 2025 [2] - Haidilao's main brand is expected to see stable performance with a slight improvement in operating profit margin in 2H24 due to optimized employee incentives and stable or slightly increased average customer spending [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow by 7 5% in 2024E reaching RMB 44 571 million with a slight increase to RMB 46 505 million in 2025E [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to remain flat in 2024E at RMB 4 498 million but grow by 12 2% in 2025E to RMB 5 047 million [6] - Operating profit margin is projected to improve from 12 3% in 2024E to 12 8% in 2025E [6] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 60 8% in 2024E to 60 9% in 2025E [6] Store Expansion and Operational Metrics - Haidilao opened 11 new stores in 1H24 but closed 43 stores resulting in a net decrease of 32 stores to a total of 1 343 stores [2] - The company plans to accelerate store openings in 2H24 with 40-50 new stores and reduce store closures to single digits [2] - The overall table turnover rate remained stable in July-August 2024 with a slight decline in September but exceeded 5 times per day during the National Day holiday [2] New Brand "Yanqing" - The new brand "Yanqing" is expected to benefit from synergies with Haidilao in procurement labor and rental costs [2] - Management plans to open "Yanqing" stores near existing Haidilao locations and utilize Haidilao store managers for multi-brand management [2] - The company aims to open 50 "Yanqing" stores in 2024 and expand to 150 stores in 2025 with a long-term goal of 300-400 stores in 3-5 years [2] Market Expectations and Valuation - The market expectation for Haidilao's stock price ranges from HKD 12 4 to HKD 26 2 with SPDBI's target price set at HKD 19 5 [4] - The stock's current price is HKD 16 6 with a total market capitalization of HKD 92 640 million [3]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 21,490.9 million, a 13.8% increase compared to the same period in 2023[15] - Core operating profit (non-IFRS measure) for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2,798.9 million, a 13.0% increase compared to the same period in 2023[15] - Profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2,033.1 million, a 10.0% decrease compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to changes in net foreign exchange gain and loss and the termination of the additional VAT deduction preferential policy in mainland China[15] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 21,490.9 million, a 13.8% year-on-year increase[16] - Core operating profit (non-IFRS) for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2,798.9 million, up 13.0% year-on-year[16] - Revenue increased by 13.8% from RMB18,885.9 million in H1 2023 to RMB21,490.9 million in H1 2024[27][28] - Haidilao restaurant operation revenue grew by 13.8% to RMB20,414.0 million, accounting for 95.0% of total revenue[29][31] - Delivery business revenue rose by 23.3% to RMB581.2 million, driven by single-serving high-quality fast food offerings[31] - Sales of condiment products and food ingredients decreased by 19.2% to RMB299.2 million in H1 2024[29] - Other restaurant operation revenue increased by 74.3% to RMB182.4 million in H1 2024[29] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, increased to RMB 21,490,903 thousand, up from RMB 18,885,854 thousand in the same period in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 13.8%[158] - Profit for the period decreased to RMB 2,033,103 thousand in 2024 from RMB 2,258,886 thousand in 2023, a decline of approximately 10%[158] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 2,083,229 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 2,381,598 thousand in 2023, a decrease of approximately 12.5%[158] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the period were RMB 0.38 in 2024, down from RMB 0.42 in 2023[160] - Profit for the period was RMB 2,038,125 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024[168] - Other comprehensive income for the period was RMB 50,126 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024[168] - Dividends recognized as distribution amounted to RMB 4,061,454 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024[168] - Retained profits increased to RMB 7,250,439 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 5,433,184 thousand as of January 1, 2024[168] - Non-controlling interests decreased to RMB (14,264) thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB (9,690) thousand as of January 1, 2024[168] - Statutory reserve increased to RMB 1,362,905 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 1,142,035 thousand as of January 1, 2024[168] - Share premium decreased to RMB 1,045,420 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 5,106,874 thousand as of January 1, 2024[168] - Operating cash flows before movements in working capital increased to RMB 4,169,242 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 4,148,245 thousand in 2023[170] - Net cash from operating activities decreased to RMB 3,671,759 thousand in 2024 from RMB 4,934,371 thousand in 2023[170] - Net cash used in investing activities decreased to RMB 769,676 thousand in 2024 from RMB 1,482,728 thousand in 2023[172] - Net cash used in financing activities decreased to RMB 920,439 thousand in 2024 from RMB 2,002,462 thousand in 2023[173] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period increased to RMB 8,424,923 thousand in 2024 from RMB 7,908,774 thousand in 2023[173] - Profit before tax increased to RMB 2,888,060 thousand in 2024 from RMB 2,813,816 thousand in 2023[170] - Finance costs decreased to RMB 140,504 thousand in 2024 from RMB 183,021 thousand in 2023[170] - Interest income increased to RMB 244,761 thousand in 2024 from RMB 133,122 thousand in 2023[170] - Depreciation of property, plant and equipment decreased to RMB 961,723 thousand in 2024 from RMB 1,125,318 thousand in 2023[170] - Depreciation of right-of-use assets increased slightly to RMB 364,492 thousand in 2024 from RMB 362,147 thousand in 2023[170] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 21,490,903 thousand, compared to RMB 18,885,854 thousand in the same period in 2023, representing a 13.8% year-over-year increase[185] - Restaurant operation revenue increased to RMB 20,596,386 thousand in H1 2024, up 14.2% from RMB 18,040,008 thousand in H1 2023[185] - Delivery business revenue grew to RMB 581,228 thousand in H1 2024, a 23.3% increase from RMB 471,351 thousand in H1 2023[185] - Sales of condiment products and food ingredients decreased to RMB 299,208 thousand in H1 2024, down 19.2% from RMB 370,229 thousand in H1 2023[185] - Revenue from Mainland China operations accounted for RMB 20,760,551 thousand in H1 2024, representing 96.6% of total revenue[190] - Interest income from bank deposits increased to RMB 217.96 million in 2024, up from RMB 125.21 million in 2023, representing a 74.1% increase[193] - Government grants decreased to RMB 22.96 million in 2024 from RMB 33.58 million in 2023, a decline of 31.6%[193] - Business development expenses surged to RMB 196.01 million in 2024, more than doubling from RMB 83.84 million in 2023, a 133.8% increase[197] - Net foreign exchange loss amounted to RMB 25.85 million in 2024, compared to a gain of RMB 192.55 million in 2023[200] - Total other expenses rose to RMB 881.09 million in 2024, up 28.9% from RMB 683.64 million in 2023[197] - Compensation claim income increased to RMB 23.31 million in 2024, up 175.8% from RMB 8.45 million in 2023[193] - Net impairment loss reversed for property, plant and equipment was RMB 14.34 million in 2024, compared to a gain of RMB 6.80 million in 2023[200] - Gain from redemption of long-term bonds was RMB 4.41 million in 2024, up 459.0% from RMB 0.79 million in 2023[200] - Total other income decreased to RMB 370.13 million in 2024, down 6.8% from RMB 396.98 million in 2023[193] - Additional tax deduction, which was RMB 158.66 million in 2023, was terminated as of December 31, 2023[194] Restaurant Operations - The overall table turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants was 4.2 times per day in the first half of 2024[15] - Total number of customers served across all restaurants exceeded 209.9 million in the first half of 2024[15] - The company operated a total of 1,343 Haidilao restaurants as of June 30, 2024, with 1,320 in mainland China and 23 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan[17] - The company opened 11 new restaurants and closed 43 underperforming restaurants in the first half of 2024[17] - The company plans to significantly increase the number of new restaurant openings in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half[17] - The company implemented a multi-restaurant management model, allowing managers to oversee multiple outlets, including Haidilao and other group brands[20] - The company launched a franchise model to attract business partners and expand into lower-tier markets[21] - The company initiated the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new catering brands and promote innovation in catering services[23] - The company developed new dining consumption patterns, including camping hot pot, campus hot pot, and corporate hot pot restaurants[24] - The company's single-serving delivery business continued to generate additional revenue and profit[24] - Average table turnover rate for Haidilao restaurants increased to 4.2 times per day in H1 2024[31] - Average spending per guest decreased from RMB102.9 in H1 2023 to RMB97.4 in H1 2024 due to changes in dish consumption structure and increased discounts[31] - The company launched the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate and develop new catering brands, with 5 innovation projects in operation in H1 2024[25][26] - New brands like "YEAH QING BBQ" and "XIAOHAI HUOGUO" were introduced, targeting different price segments and consumer groups[26] - The company expanded into new dining formats such as camping hot pot, campus hot pot, and corporate hot pot to diversify customer experiences[25] - Average spending per guest decreased in all regions: Tier 1 cities from RMB 110.3 to RMB 104.1, Tier 2 cities from RMB 101.8 to RMB 96.8, and Tier 3 cities and below from RMB 96.1 to RMB 91.4[33] - Overall table turnover rate increased from 3.3 times/day in 2023 to 4.2 times/day in 2024, with Tier 2 cities showing the highest increase from 3.5 to 4.3 times/day[33] - Same store sales increased overall from RMB 17,007,646 thousand in 2023 to RMB 19,605,740 thousand in 2024, with Tier 3 cities and below showing the highest growth from RMB 6,533,187 thousand to RMB 7,836,184 thousand[36] - Average same store sales per day increased from RMB 75.2 thousand in 2023 to RMB 86.1 thousand in 2024, with Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan regions maintaining the highest daily sales at RMB 167.5 thousand[36] - Gross revenue from restaurant operations in mainland China increased from RMB 17,298,795 thousand in 2023 to RMB 19,746,580 thousand in 2024, with Tier 3 cities and below contributing the largest share at 39.9%[41] Costs and Expenses - Raw materials and consumables costs increased by 9.1% from RMB 7,685.0 million in 2023 to RMB 8,387.2 million in 2024, but decreased as a percentage of revenue from 40.7% to 39.0%[42] - Staff costs increased by 24.0% from RMB 5,769.3 million in 2023 to RMB 7,155.7 million in 2024, rising as a percentage of revenue from 30.5% to 33.3% due to increased salary and benefit levels[44] - Rentals and related expenses increased by 5.3% from RMB200.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB210.9 million in H1 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of revenue at 1.1% and 1.0% respectively[45][49] - Utilities expenses rose by 19.2% from RMB605.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB721.7 million in H1 2024, with revenue percentage stable at 3.2% and 3.4% respectively[46][50] - Travelling and communication expenses increased by 20.5% from RMB78.7 million in H1 2023 to RMB94.8 million in H1 2024, maintaining a stable revenue percentage of 0.4%[47][51] - Employee costs surged by 24.0% from RMB5,769.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB7,155.7 million in H1 2024, with revenue percentage rising from 30.5% to 33.3%[48] - Depreciation and amortization decreased by 11.1% from RMB1,506.4 million in H1 2023 to RMB1,339.1 million in H1 2024, with revenue percentage dropping from 8.0% to 6.2%[52][56] - Other expenses increased by 28.9% from RMB683.6 million in H1 2023 to RMB881.1 million in H1 2024, with revenue percentage rising from 3.6% to 4.1%[53][57] - Share of results of associates and a joint venture increased from RMB15.6 million in H1 2023 to RMB24.7 million in H1 2024[54][58] - Other gains and losses shifted from a gain of RMB227.2 million in H1 2023 to a loss of RMB66.7 million in H1 2024, primarily due to foreign exchange rate changes[55][59] - Finance costs decreased by 23.2% from RMB183.0 million in H1 2023 to RMB140.5 million in H1 2024[60][61] - Income tax expense increased by 54.1% from RMB554.9 million in H1 2023 to RMB855.0 million in H1 2024[62] - Core operating profit (non-IFRS measure) increased to RMB2,798,866,000 in H1 2024, up from RMB2,476,446,000 in H1 2023[68] - Net foreign exchange loss of RMB25,854,000 in H1 2024, compared to a gain of RMB192,546,000 in H1 2023[68] - Interest income increased to RMB244,761,000 in H1 2024 from RMB133,122,000 in H1 2023[68] - Profit for the period decreased to RMB2,033,103,000 in H1 2024 from RMB2,258,886,000 in H1 2023[68] - Finance costs decreased to RMB140,504,000 in H1 2024 from RMB183,021,000 in H1 2023[68] - Trade payables decreased from RMB1,859.4 million as of December 31, 2023 to RMB1,470.7 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days increasing from 34.3 days to 35.9 days[79][84] - Bank borrowings as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB294.4 million, with new loans of RMB50.0 million obtained and RMB379.7 million repaid during the six months ended June 30, 2024[80][85] - Trade receivables decreased from RMB412.0 million as of December 31, 2023 to RMB278.6 million as of June 30, 2024, with turnover days decreasing from 3.2 days to 2.9 days[83] - The Group's debt-to-equity ratio as of June 30, 2024, was 24.6%[88][93] - The Group had a total of 143,034 employees as of June 30, 2024, with total staff costs of RMB7,155.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[90][95] - The Group has no specific plans for material investments or acquisition of capital assets as of June 30, 2024, but will continue to explore strategic investment opportunities[98][99] - The Group's pledged/restricted bank deposits amounted to RMB8.2 million as of June 30, 2024, with no fixed assets charged[87][93] - The Group has not hedged its foreign currency exchange risks but will monitor and manage exposure as necessary[89][94] - The Group had no material acquisitions or disposals during the reporting period[91][96] - The Group's future development initiatives include refining restaurant management, exploring diversified business strategies, and pursuing strategic acquisitions[99][100] Shareholder Information - Mr. Li Peng holds 397,500 ordinary shares, representing 0.01% of the total issued share capital[105] - Ms. Song Qing holds 795,000 ordinary shares, representing 0.01% of the total issued share capital[105] - Ms. Gao Jie holds 1,987,500 ordinary shares, representing 0.04% of the total issued share capital[105] - Mr. Zhou Zhaocheng holds 2,087,500 ordinary shares, representing 0.04% of the total issued share capital[105] - NP United Holding Ltd. is owned 51.778% by ZY NP Ltd. and 16.074% each by SP NP Ltd., SYH NP Ltd., and LHY NP Ltd.[107] - The total number of issued shares as of June 30, 2024, is 5,574,000,000[107] - Fuhai is held 40% by Shanghai Xinpai and 60% by Yihai (Shanghai) Food Co., Ltd., making it an associated corporation of the company[110] - Yihai is held approximately 31.39% by ZYSP YIHAI Ltd. and SP YIHAI Ltd.[110] - Mr. Zhang Yong is deemed to be interested in the shares of Fuhai (

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company has achieved record high revenue and core operating profit in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 21.49 billion and core operating profit at 2.80 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and 13.0% respectively [2][4] - The company plans to accelerate store openings in H2 2024, with expectations of significant growth in the number of new stores [3][6] - The introduction of a multi-store management model and franchise system is expected to enhance operational efficiency and service quality [4][6] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a net profit of 2.04 billion, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange losses and changes in tax policies [4][6] - The company’s gross margin improved to 61.0%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower procurement costs [4][6] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 46.68 billion, 48.80 billion, and 51.92 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.57 billion, 4.94 billion, and 5.24 billion [6][7] Store Operations - The company opened 11 new stores and closed 43 in H1 2024, resulting in a total of 1,343 stores, a decrease of 39 stores year-on-year [3][4] - The average customer spending decreased to 97.4 yuan, down by 5.5 yuan year-on-year, while the table turnover rate increased to 4.2 times per day [3][4] - Same-store sales grew by 15.3% year-on-year, with significant growth in lower-tier cities [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing management optimization through a structured approach involving operational, management, and foundational aspects [4][6] - The "Pomegranate Plan" has been launched to encourage the incubation and development of new restaurant brands, promoting innovation in dining services [4][6] - A mid-term dividend of 0.358 yuan per share has been declared, marking the first mid-term dividend since the company’s listing [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Haidilao International Holding, with a target price of RMB 15.6 per share, corresponding to HKD 17.0 per share [4][9]. Core Insights - Haidilao reported a revenue of RMB 21.49 billion for 1H24, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.7% to RMB 2.04 billion, primarily due to changes in net exchange gains and losses and the cancellation of VAT deduction policy in Mainland China. The core operating profit increased by 13.0% to RMB 2.80 billion [2][9]. - The company plans to distribute RMB 1.94 billion in dividends, resulting in a payout ratio of 95% and a dividend yield of approximately 3.1% [2][9]. - The revenue breakdown shows that restaurant revenue was RMB 20.41 billion, with significant growth in Tier-3 and below cities, while takeaway revenue grew by 23.3% to RMB 0.58 billion [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For 1H24, the total revenue was RMB 21.49 billion, with restaurant revenue contributing RMB 20.41 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year. Revenue from Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3 cities, and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan were RMB 3.59 billion, RMB 8.00 billion, RMB 8.16 billion, and RMB 0.70 billion, respectively [2][9]. - The average customer transaction value decreased by 5.3% to RMB 97.4, while the average seat turnover rate increased by 27.3% to 4.2 times per day [2][9]. Cost Structure and Management - Raw materials and consumables costs increased by 9.1% to RMB 8.39 billion, accounting for 39.0% of revenue, while employee costs rose by 24.0% to RMB 7.16 billion, making up 33.3% of revenue [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in depreciation and amortization costs by 11.1% to RMB 1.33 billion, which accounted for 6.2% of revenue [2][9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in store openings, introducing a franchise model and implementing the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new restaurant brands [2][4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are expected to be RMB 45.433 billion, RMB 49.094 billion, and RMB 53.178 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 8.1%, and 8.3%, respectively [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, with a target price adjusted to HK$15.94, down from HK$21.52 [2][12]. Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 half-year performance was generally in line with expectations, showing a same-store sales growth rate of approximately 15%, despite a 10% decline in net profit due to higher-than-expected employee costs [6][17]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the second half of 2024, including macroeconomic pressures and high baseline comparisons, but potential growth could come from accelerated new store openings and efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The report highlights Haidilao's strong performance in customer service and marketing, which has contributed to its superior same-store sales recovery compared to industry averages [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at HK$47,309 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1%. Net profit is expected to be HK$4,627.2 million, reflecting a slight increase of 2.4% [3][9]. - The report anticipates a gross profit margin improvement to 60.1% by FY24E, driven by lower raw material costs and enhanced supply chain efficiency [16][17]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with a focus on new brand development and operational efficiency [1][16]. Key Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 14.6x for FY24E and a dividend yield of 6.1% [2][3]. - The same-store sales growth rate for the first half of 2024 was supported by a 27% increase in table turnover, despite a 5% decline in average spending per table [6][17]. - The report notes that Haidilao's stock is currently trading at a P/E of 15x for FY24, which is considered reasonable given the attractive dividend yield [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$ 15.94, down from the previous target price of HK$ 21.52, reflecting a 20% upside from the current price of HK$ 13.28 [2][3][8]. Core Views - Haidilao's 1H24 results were roughly in line with expectations, showing a 14% year-on-year increase in sales, but net profit dropped by 10% year-on-year due to higher staff costs [6][2]. - The company is expected to face challenges in 2H24, including macroeconomic pressures and high staff costs, but potential upside could come from new store openings and initiatives from the new CEO to improve margins [2][6]. - The report highlights Haidilao's strong recovery in same-store sales growth (SSSG), outperforming the catering industry, driven by superior customer service and effective marketing strategies [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 41,453 million in FY23A to RMB 47,309 million in FY24E, representing a 14.1% year-on-year growth [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,495.4 million in FY23A to RMB 4,627.2 million in FY24E, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year growth [3][11]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 60.1% in FY24E, up from 59.2% in FY23A, aided by lower input costs and improved supply chain efficiency [7][11]. Earnings Revision - The report revises net profit forecasts for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E down by 7%, 1%, and up by 4% respectively, primarily due to higher staff costs but better gross profit margins [7][2]. - The diluted EPS for FY24E is adjusted to RMB 0.827, down from RMB 0.893, reflecting a 7.4% decrease [7][2]. Store Expansion and Initiatives - Haidilao aims to increase its number of stores by a mid-single-digit percentage in FY24E, with plans to open 400 to 500 stores under the new Yanqing Barbecue Shop brand over the next three years [2][10]. - The "Red pomegranate" project is highlighted as a key multi-brand development strategy, which is crucial for the company's future growth [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15x for FY24E, which is considered not too demanding, especially with a dividend yield of 6% [2][3]. - The report notes that Haidilao's P/B ratio is projected to be 3.3x for FY24E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 29.2% [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HKD 20.8, indicating a potential upside of 58% from the current stock price [1][2][4]. Core Insights - Haidilao's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached HKD 21.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, while net profit was HKD 2.03 billion, down 10%. However, core net profit grew by 13% to HKD 2.8 billion [1][2]. - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to HKD 4.63 billion, HKD 5.12 billion, and HKD 5.42 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.91, HKD 1.01, and HKD 1.07 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of June 2024, Haidilao operated 1,343 stores, with a net decrease of 31 stores in the first half of the year due to closures of underperforming locations [1]. - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.2 times per day, a 27% increase year-on-year, returning to levels seen in 2019 despite a 75% increase in store count since then [1]. - The core profit margin remained stable at 13%, with a gross margin of 61%, up 1.7 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching the "Pomegranate Plan" to foster a second growth curve through the incubation of new brands and businesses, led by the CEO's innovation committee [2]. - Haidilao continues to implement a high dividend policy, declaring an interim dividend of HKD 0.391 per share, with a payout ratio of 94% and an expected dividend yield of over 5% [2]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, estimating a target price of HKD 20.8 based on a 20x PE ratio for 2024 and a DCF valuation yielding a price of HKD 21.4 [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Haidilao (6862) [2] Core Views - Despite weak demand and consumption downgrade trends, Haidilao's stable operations and superior dividend payout ratio justify a higher valuation multiple of 18x PE compared to the industry average of 13x PE [4] - The target price is revised downward to RMB 14.53 (-22%), equivalent to HKD 15.89, while maintaining the "Buy" rating [4] - Haidilao's H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 21.491 billion, a 14% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 9.7% to RMB 2.038 billion [4] - Excluding tax credits and exchange gains/losses (approximately RMB 400 million), core business profit is estimated to have grown 13% YoY, aligning with the company's disclosed Non-GAAP core operating profit growth [4] Operational Performance - Turnover rates continue to recover across all store tiers: Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall at 4/4.3/4.1/4.2/4.2, showing YoY increases of 18%/23%/28%/2%/24% respectively [4] - Same-store sales growth varies significantly by region: +11%/-48%/+20%/+2%/+15% for Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall respectively [4] - Average customer spending shows a downward trend across all regions, with overall spending down 5.3% YoY [4] - Store network strategy shifts towards Tier 2 and 3 cities, with net store openings of -12/+9/+13/+10/+1/+11 in Tier 1/Tier 2/Tier 3 & below/overseas/overall respectively [4] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: Restaurant operations (+13.8%), other restaurants (+74.3%), delivery (+23.3%), and condiment/ingredient sales (-19.2%) [4] - Cost structure: Raw materials (39%), staff costs (33.3%), property rental (1%), depreciation (6.2%), and utilities (3.4%) [4] - Staff costs increased due to higher headcount per store (from 99 to 106 employees) and increased promotional activities [4] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts revised to RMB 4.5/5.0/5.4 billion, with EPS of RMB 0.81/0.90/0.98 [4] - Revenue projections: 2024E RMB 44.960 billion (+8.46%), 2025E RMB 49.071 billion (+9.15%), 2026E RMB 51.580 billion (+5.11%) [5] - PE ratios: 2024E 14.81x, 2025E 13.38x, 2026E 12.28x [5] Market Data - Current share price: HKD 13.12 [3] - 52-week price range: HKD 11.80-22.10 [6] - Current market capitalization: HKD 73.131 billion [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5][15] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in both revenue and core operating profit for H1 2024, with revenue of 21.49 billion RMB, up 13.8% year-on-year, and core operating profit of 2.799 billion RMB, up 13.0% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [6][11] - The "Red Pomegranate Plan" aims to encourage the incubation of new brands, with several new projects launched, indicating a strategic shift towards brand diversification [14][15] - The company announced an increase in the interim cash dividend payout ratio to 95%, enhancing its investment attractiveness [15] Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 46.2 billion RMB, 51.2 billion RMB, and 56.2 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 3%, 11%, and 10% respectively [15][17] - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2024 was 9.48%, with a core operating profit margin of 13.02%, indicating stable profitability [11][17] - The average table turnover rate improved to 4.2 times in H1 2024, an increase of 0.9 times year-on-year, with a notable recovery in lower-tier cities [7][8] Business Performance - The company operated 1,343 restaurants as of June 30, 2024, a decrease of 39 locations, but new openings showed a high success rate with a turnover rate of 4.6 for new stores compared to 4.2 for existing ones [6][11] - The average customer spending decreased to 97.4 RMB, down 5%, as the company adapted to the current consumption environment by offering more value-oriented products [7][11] - Same-store sales growth for H1 2024 was 15.3%, with significant growth in lower-tier cities [8][11]