Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][11]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.499 billion CNY in 2023, which aligns with expectations. The total revenue for 2023 was 41.453 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. The net profit margin reached 10.9%, an increase of 7 percentage points [1][4]. - The company experienced a significant recovery in table turnover rates in the second half of 2023, with same-store turnover rates reaching 3.9 times. The overall turnover rate for 2023 was 3.8 times, an increase of 0.8 times compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The company has adopted a cautious approach to store expansion, opening only 9 new restaurants in 2023 while closing 32. As of the end of 2023, the total number of restaurants was 1,374 [1][6]. - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 90% in 2023, distributing a final dividend of 0.824 HKD per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 4.8% based on the current stock price [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 41.453 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, and a net profit of 4.499 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 227.3% [1][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 2023 was 59.1%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year. Employee compensation as a percentage of revenue decreased to 31.5%, while rental and depreciation expenses accounted for 8.0% of revenue, down 4 percentage points [1][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.81 CNY, with projected EPS of 0.93 CNY for 2024 and 1.03 CNY for 2025 [2][13]. Future Outlook - The company expects to add a single-digit percentage of new stores in 2024, indicating a cautious approach to expansion [1][11]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 5.174 billion CNY, with growth rates of 15% for 2024, 11% for 2025, and 10% for 2026 [2][11]. - The company is exploring a franchise model to enhance its business strategy, although it will continue to focus primarily on direct operations in the short term [10][11].

财联社3月27日讯（编辑 胡家荣）受益于昨日公布的年报，海底捞(06862.HK)在今日早盘一度上涨超3%，不过受大盘拖累，目前股价已转跌。截至发稿，跌1.06%，报16.84港元。 注：海底捞的表现 根据海底捞在昨日发布的2023年财务报表，全年公司营收414.5亿元人民币，同比增长33%，之前分析师的预估为411亿元。净利润45亿元人民币，同比增长174%。 注：海底捞的去年的表现 海底捞指出，因整体消费环境复苏，消费者外出就餐次数逐渐增加，海底捞餐厅翻台率显著提升。2023年海底捞餐厅整体翻台率为3.8次/天，同比增长26.7%。 翻台率仍有望上升 根据浙商证券的研报，海底捞的翻台率正在不断上升。在2023年全年，公司实现了3.8次/天的翻台率，这个数据明显高于2023年上半年的3.3次/天，2022年全年为3次/天。 该券商还指出，2024年春节假期期间(从初一到初六)，海底捞累计接待了超过950万名顾客，同比增长30%，翻台率继续保持强劲势头。基于2023年上半年较低的基数，预计在2024年上半年海底捞的翻台率同比将有望显著提高，而下半年则有可能保持当前水平或继续小幅上升。 新加盟模式有利于发展 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 41,453.3 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.6%[3] - Net profit for the year was RMB 4,495.4 million, significantly up from RMB 1,637.3 million in the previous year[3] - The company's total revenue increased by 33.6% from RMB 31,038.6 million in 2022 to RMB 41,453.3 million in 2023[8] - Same-store sales for 2023 reached RMB 29,325.979 million, a 27.6% increase from RMB 22,968.136 million in 2022[13] - The company's profit attributable to owners for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 4,499,080, a significant increase from RMB 1,374,477 in 2022, representing a growth of approximately 227%[41] - The total comprehensive income attributable to owners for the year was RMB 4,562,834, compared to RMB 1,184,856 in the previous year, indicating an increase of about 285%[41] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the year were RMB 0.83, up from RMB 0.25 in 2022, reflecting a growth of 232%[41] Restaurant Operations - The number of Haidilao restaurants increased to 1,374, with 9 new openings and 26 re-openings, while 32 restaurants were closed during the year[3][4] - Revenue from restaurant operations accounted for 94.7% of total revenue, rising from RMB 28,942.6 million in 2022 to RMB 39,266.6 million in 2023, a growth of 35.7%[9] - The overall table turnover rate for Haidilao restaurants was 3.8 times per day, up from 3.0 times per day in 2022[3] - The average table turnover rate for 2023 was 3.8 times per day, up from 3.0 times in 2022[11] - The number of same-store restaurants increased to 950, with 130 in first-tier cities, 346 in second-tier cities, and 455 in third-tier and below cities[13] - Average daily sales per same-store restaurant rose to RMB 84.9, up from RMB 70.7 in 2022, reflecting a 20.5% increase[13] Customer Engagement - Haidilao served over 397 million customers in 2023, an increase of 43.7% compared to the previous year[3] - Social media engagement activities led to over 60 million likes and 5 billion views on Douyin, enhancing brand visibility[5] Cost and Expenses - Employee costs increased by 27.3% to RMB 13,039.8 million, but as a percentage of revenue, it decreased from 33.0% in 2022 to 31.5% in 2023[17] - Material and consumables costs rose by 31.3% to RMB 16,946.2 million, but as a percentage of revenue, it decreased from 41.6% to 40.9%[16] - The total income tax expense for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 1,337,673,000, up from RMB 480,335,000 in 2022, reflecting a substantial rise in tax obligations due to increased earnings[58] - The company reported a total financial cost of RMB 351,430,000 for the year ended December 31, 2023, a decrease from RMB 473,879,000 in 2022, indicating improved cost management[6] Innovation and Development - The company has established an innovation office to enhance product offerings and diversify dining experiences[3] - The company launched 29 new national products and upgraded 13 existing dishes in 2023, alongside over 300 local dishes[7] - The company introduced innovative dining formats, including a camping hot pot restaurant and a campus hot pot pilot in Xi'an[7] Liquidity and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents increased from RMB 6,300.8 million as of December 31, 2022, to RMB 6,475.5 million as of December 31, 2023, primarily due to increased net cash from operating activities[28] - The company maintained liquidity through cash flow monitoring and bank loans to support ongoing business expansion[27] - The company had bank borrowings of RMB 618.9 million as of December 31, 2023, with new borrowings of RMB 1,054.5 million and repayments of RMB 3,005.3 million during 2023[33] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to propose a final cash dividend of HKD 0.824 per share, totaling approximately RMB 4,050.4 million[3] - The company declared a final dividend of RMB 0.748 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, amounting to approximately RMB 4,050,420,000, pending shareholder approval[61] Asset Management - Non-current assets decreased to RMB 9,769,959 as of December 31, 2023, from RMB 10,932,565 in 2022, a decline of approximately 10.6%[42] - Current assets increased to RMB 14,907,039 in 2023, compared to RMB 10,506,590 in 2022, representing a growth of about 41.4%[42] - The company's net assets increased to RMB 11,516,940 in 2023, up from RMB 7,456,092 in 2022, indicating a growth of approximately 54.5%[43] Franchise and Expansion - The company has initiated a franchise model to further expand its restaurant network and has established a franchise division to develop related business cooperation processes[86] - The company plans to enhance dining experiences, explore diversified business strategies, and strategically seek acquisitions of quality assets to enrich its restaurant business[39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended (First Time)" investment rating to the company [6][45]. Core Insights - The hot pot industry in China is expected to exceed 550 billion yuan in market size by 2024, driven by strong social attributes and diverse ingredients [2][3]. - Haidilao has a high brand recognition and has improved table turnover rates through innovative products and services, with a current total of 1,360 restaurants in mainland China [3][22]. - The introduction of a franchise model is anticipated to further enhance the company's store expansion [4][29]. Company Performance Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 414.17 billion yuan, 463.57 billion yuan, and 518.86 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 19.22%, 11.93%, and 11.93% [5][37]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.80 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 1.04 yuan for the same years [5][37]. Business Model and Competitive Advantages - Haidilao's operational philosophy emphasizes "locking in management" and "locking in benefits," which enhances employee motivation and customer service [22][26]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and management system, allowing for standardized and scalable growth [32][26]. - The franchise model will provide uniform training, supply chain systems, and management experience to franchisees, ensuring food safety and customer experience [29][4]. Market Position and Expansion Potential - The hot pot industry has a low chain rate of 23%, indicating significant room for expansion, especially in lower-tier cities where Haidilao has fewer outlets compared to competitors [16][26]. - The company has a strong presence in second-tier and above cities, with potential for growth in third-tier and below cities [18][4]. Financial Metrics - As of March 18, 2024, the company's closing price was 17.30 HKD, with a market capitalization of 964.3 billion HKD and a P/E ratio of 22.36 [7][5]. - The report estimates a target price of 23.20 HKD per share within six months, indicating a potential upside of 22.03% from the current price [44][45].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - Haidilao has officially opened its franchise model, which is expected to accelerate its expansion moderately. The company believes that introducing a franchise model will help achieve further expansion while maintaining operational efficiency. The franchisees must meet specific criteria, including financial stability and management capabilities [1]. - The company has shown strong post-pandemic recovery, with a forecasted revenue of over 41.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.4 billion yuan for 2023, marking a historical high. The overall table turnover rate in Q4 2023 is approaching the levels seen in the same period of 2019, indicating strong operational performance [1][2]. - Haidilao's cautious approach to expansion through franchising reflects a strategic shift in the restaurant industry, where many brands are moving towards a "direct + franchise" model. This model allows for rapid and efficient expansion with lower capital requirements compared to fully owned stores [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Haidilao are as follows: - 2023: 41,063 million yuan - 2024: 45,682 million yuan (up 11.2%) - 2025: 50,497 million yuan (up 10.5%) [2][6]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 4,547 million yuan - 2024: 5,258 million yuan (up 15.6%) - 2025: 6,050 million yuan (up 15.1%) [2][6]. - The company aims to maintain a PE ratio of 15 for 2023, 13 for 2024, and 11 for 2025, indicating a positive outlook on valuation [1][2]. Market Position - As of the report date, Haidilao has over 1,400 stores nationwide, with plans for further openings, including a new sub-brand "Hailao Hotpot" aimed at offering high cost-performance options [1][2]. - The company is positioned well within the competitive landscape, with a focus on maintaining quality and efficiency while exploring new business models through franchising [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao [1] Core Views - Haidilao is adopting a franchise model to enhance operational efficiency and expand its market presence while maintaining service quality [3] - The company is expected to have significant growth potential in the hot pot market, which is projected to reach approximately 500 billion yuan in 2022, with low brand and chain penetration [3] - The shift to a franchise model allows Haidilao to reduce operational costs and improve financial metrics, with a focus on revenue sharing from franchisees [3] - For 2024, the report anticipates stable turnover rates and the opening of 70-80 new stores, alongside a potential increase in dividend payouts [3] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 31,039 million yuan in 2022 to 52,826 million yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.3% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,638 million yuan in 2023 to 5,736 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 168.66% and 11.50% respectively [2] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2023 to 1.03 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2] Market Data - The closing price of Haidilao is 13.98 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 77,924.52 million HKD [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 43 in 2022 to 12 in 2025, suggesting improved valuation metrics as earnings grow [2][6] Operational Insights - The franchise model is expected to leverage local resources, enhancing brand penetration and operational consistency across new outlets [3] - The company aims to diversify its brand portfolio with new concepts like "Hi Lao" and "Miao Shixiong Stir-fried Chicken," which will contribute to long-term growth [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3]. Core Views - The company is transitioning to a franchise model, focusing on moderate expansion while balancing efficiency and scale [6]. - The company expects revenue for 2023 to be no less than 41.4 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of over 33.3%, and a net profit of no less than 4.4 billion CNY [6]. - The target price has been adjusted to 18.54 CNY, reflecting a 24% decrease, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 20x, which is above the industry average of 14x [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023E: 41,233 million CNY - 2024E: 48,202 million CNY - 2025E: 53,941 million CNY - Net profit projections are: - 2023E: 4,454 million CNY - 2024E: 5,167 million CNY - 2025E: 5,808 million CNY - The PE ratios are projected to be: - 2023E: 14.84 - 2024E: 12.80 - 2025E: 11.38 [7].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 海底捞（06862） 证券研究报告 2024年02月27日 投资评级 23全年业绩不低于44亿符合预期，期待翻台稳健修复下的开店重启 行业 非必需性消费/旅游及 消闲设施 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 公司发布正面盈利预告：23 年持续经营业务收入预计将不低于人民币 当前价格 14.34港元 414.0 亿元/yoy+33%，持续经营业务净利润不低于人民币 44.0 亿元 目标价格 港元 /yoy+169%，实现净利率10.6%、超19年全年水平（10.3%）。 基本数据 港股总股本(百万股) 5,574.00 公司收入及业绩的增长主要由于防疫政策优化及经济复苏，海底捞餐厅客 港股总市值(百万港元) 79,931.16 流量增加，公司经营表现好转，海底捞餐厅翻台率提升及营运效率改善。 每股净资产(港元) 1.81 资产负债率(%) 59.72 单23H2来看：23H2预计实现营收不低于225.1亿元/yoy+58%，净利 一 年内最高/最低(港元) 23.95/11.94 润不低于21.4亿元/yoy+12%，净利率9.5%。公司23H1若剔除汇兑收 作者 益，经营性业绩 20.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, with a target price of 14.06 HKD [3]. Core Views - Haidilao's 2023 revenue is expected to be no less than 41.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of at least 33.3%, driven by increased customer flow and improved operational performance due to reduced pandemic disruptions [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be no less than 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of at least 168.79%, primarily due to improved table turnover rates and operational efficiency [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its existing store operations rather than aggressive expansion, with only 12 new stores opened in 2023 compared to 28 in 2022 [2]. - Haidilao is exploring new business avenues through sub-brands and personalized stores, such as the budget-friendly "Hailao" and high-end bistro "Youjishan," as well as specialized hotpot stores targeting specific consumer scenarios [2]. - The report suggests that Haidilao's internal reforms and post-pandemic recovery in dine-in traffic could lead to a gradual return to stable operations, enhancing performance elasticity [2]. Financial Summary - Expected revenue for 2023 is 41,569 million RMB, with a growth rate of 33.9% [3]. - Projected net profit for 2023 is 4,421 million RMB, with a growth rate of 169.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.79 RMB for 2023, with a PE ratio of 16 [3]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 5,370 million RMB and 6,093 million RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13 and 12 [3].

2024年2月21日 公司研究 翻台率持续改善，24 年或重启开店计划 ——海底捞（6862.HK）2023 年业绩预告点评 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：14.06港元 事件：公司发布2023年业绩预告，预计2023年持续经营业务收入不低于414 亿元，同比增长不低于33.3%；预计持续经营业务净利润不低于44亿元，同比 增长不低于168.3%。其中，公司预计23H2持续经营业务收入不低于225亿元， 作者 同比增长不低于41.7%；预计持续经营业务净利润不低于21.4亿元，同比增长 分析师：陈彦彤 不低于36.8%。 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 23H2客流改善带动收入增长提速。公司预计23H2持续经营业务收入不低于225 chenyt@ebscn.com 亿元，同比增长不低于41.7%，收入增速环比改善，主要系随着针对新冠疫情 分析师：汪航宇 的管控措施优化及经济复苏，海底捞餐厅客流量增加，经营表现好转。23H2公 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 司整体表现出客单价下降、客流回升的趋势。23H2公司翻台率持续好转，23Q4 021-52523174 ...