2024 年 4 月 2 日 公司动态 海底捞（6862.HK） 证券研究报告 食品饮料 表现远超行业，重新开启扩张 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 海底捞2023年收入414亿/+33%，净利润44.9亿/+227%，业绩表现独领风骚。截止 12月底，门店数量1374家，全年新开门店9家。我们预期24/25/26年净利润分别 目标价格： 24.2 元 为46.3/51.6/56.2亿人民币，对应EPS为0.91/1.02/1.11港元。维持“买入”评 现价(2024-3-28)： 17.66港元 级，目标价为24.2港元，较当前股价有37%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 下半年翻台率显著持续修复，表现远超同行。23 年全年门店整体翻台率为 3.8 次/ 总市值(百万港元) 98,436.84 天，较上半年的3.3次有进一步的提升，表明公司下半年翻台水平更高。24年前两 流通市值(百万港元) 98,436.84 个月翻台率环比持续增长，同比增长 30%。春节期间翻台率超过 5 次。公司灵活应 总股本(百万股) 5,574.00 对热点，针对演唱会准备引流活动，表演“科目三”，在抖音平台进行沉浸式直播 流通股本(百万股) ...

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 餐饮 ＃06862 .HK ＃海dy底Com捞pa ny＃ 港股通（沪、深） dyStockco d e＃ ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃title＃ 增持 ( i维nve持stS ） 翻台率增长，盈利改善，派息率大幅提升 uggesti onCh an ge＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 4月 1 日 投资要点 跟 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃ ⚫ sum 维ma 持ry “＃增 持”评级：经过啄木鸟计划的调整，公司 2022 年以来整体开店保守，重点聚焦 踪 日期 2024.3.28 提升存量门店翻台率和盈利能力，从结果上看成效较好，各线城市翻台率持续增长，净利 报 收盘价（港元） 17.66 率亦提升显著。同时公司开放门店加盟，轻资产扩张方式有望带来新的收入增长点和提升 告 总股本（亿股） 55.74 报表净利率。公司积极提升现金管理效率，增长派息率至90%，目前2023年股息收益率 达到4.7%。我们预计公司 2024/2025/2026年营业收入为 458.5/495.9/546.2 亿元，同比增 总市值（亿 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in dividend payout ratio [2] - Continuous optimization of store structure, with a rebound in table turnover rate in H2 2023 [3] - Steady improvement in gross margin, with rising labor costs in H2 2023 [3] - Expansion and same-store sales growth expected in 2024, with new brands opening a second growth curve [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: RMB 41.45 billion (yoy +33.6%), with Haidilao restaurant revenue at RMB 39.27 billion (yoy +35.7%) [2] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 4.5 billion (yoy +174.6%), with a net profit margin of 10.9% [2] - 2023 dividend payout ratio increased by 50 percentage points to 92.6%, with total dividends of RMB 4.05 billion [2] - 2023 gross margin: 59.1% (yoy +0.7 percentage points) [3] - 2023 table turnover rate: 3.8 times/day, with H2 2023 reaching 4.2 times/day (yoy +0.9 times) [3] Store Operations - Total stores at the end of 2023: 1,374 (net increase of 3 stores) [3] - Average customer spending in 2023: RMB 99.1 (yoy -5.5%) [3] - Same-store sales growth in 2023: 27.7%, with same-store table turnover rate at 3.9 times/day (yoy +30%) [3] - Revenue growth by region: Tier 1 cities +39.6%, Tier 2 cities +37.7%, Tier 3 and below +32.2%, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan +32.7% [3] Future Outlook - 2024 table turnover rate expected to exceed 4 times/day, with higher rates in Tier 1 cities and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [3] - 2024 plan to add 70-80 new stores (including 20 franchise stores) [3] - New brands such as "Hi Lao," "Miao Shixiong," and "Five Grains Three Meals" to continue expansion [3] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast adjusted to RMB 5.1/5.7/6.2 billion, with a 3-year forward P/E of 17/16/14x [4] Market Data - Closing price: HKD 17.66 [5] - 52-week low/high: HKD 11.94/23.95 [5] - Price-to-book ratio: 7.74x [5] - Market capitalization: HKD 98.44 billion [5] Financial Ratios - 2023 EPS: RMB 0.81, 2024E: RMB 0.92, 2025E: RMB 1.02, 2026E: RMB 1.11 [9] - 2023 ROE: 39.03%, 2024E: 30.79%, 2025E: 25.47%, 2026E: 21.72% [9] - 2023 net profit margin: 10.84%, 2024E: 10.85%, 2025E: 11.05%, 2026E: 11.20% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Atour, known as the "hotpot of the hotel industry," has shown remarkable growth with significant revenue and profit increases, but faces challenges in maintaining its competitive edge and brand positioning in a crowded market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Atour achieved revenue of 4.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.2% [1]. - Adjusted net profit reached 903 million yuan, up 248.3% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA was 1.207 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 184.3% [1]. Expansion and Membership - As of December 31, 2023, Atour expanded its store count to 1,210, joining the ranks of major hotel chains [1]. - The number of registered members reached 63 million, a significant figure for a mid-to-high-end hotel brand [1]. Market Positioning - Atour is perceived as a product of consumer downgrade rather than upgrade, attracting former high-end hotel guests seeking more affordable options [2]. - The hotel’s service model, likened to that of hotpot restaurants, emphasizes customer experience with unique offerings such as extended check-out times and complimentary services [2]. Retail Business - Atour operates a retail segment contributing 972 million yuan in revenue for the fiscal year 2023, with 412 million yuan from the fourth quarter alone [4]. - The retail business includes three brands: Atour Planet, Sahe, and Z2GO&CO., focusing on products related to the hotel experience [4]. Competitive Landscape - Atour faces stiff competition from established brands like Hanting, Hilton, and others, which complicates its growth strategy [6]. - The hotel industry is experiencing a supply glut, leading to intense competition and necessitating innovative strategies to attract customers [4][6]. Pricing and Brand Perception - The average daily rate (ADR) for Atour hotels in Q4 2023 was 438 yuan, recovering to 103.6% of 2019 levels [6]. - There are concerns that aggressive pricing strategies to maintain occupancy may dilute brand quality and attract less desirable clientele [7]. Brand Structure and Recognition - Atour's brand portfolio includes multiple sub-brands, but there is confusion among customers regarding the distinctions between them [8]. - Despite challenges, Atour remains one of the most talked-about hotel brands in the past decade, indicating a strong market presence [8].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/旅游服务业/酒店、餐馆 证券研究报告 海底捞（6862）公司半年报 2024年03月29日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 2H23 收入增 42%，翻台趋势向好 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 0[3Ta月b2le8_日S收to盘ck价In（fo港] 币） 17.66 投资要点： 52周股价波动（港币） 11.94-23.95 公司发布2H23业绩公告。2H23收入225.7亿元，同比增长42.1%；归母净利 总股本/流通A股（亿股） 55.74/55.74 总市值/流通市值（亿港币） 984/984 润 22.4 亿元，同比增长 43.2%，符合此前预告区间；归母净利率为 9.9%，同 相关研究 比增加 0.1pct，环比减少 2.0pct。经营业绩亮眼主因：①疫情管控措施取消， [《Ta1Hb2le3_盈R利ep能o力rt显In著fo提] 升，精细化管理提效》 经济复苏，餐厅客流量增加；②优化组织架构和精细化管理门店显著改善餐厅 运营。公司预期派息40.5亿（派息率90%），对应股息率约4.6%。 2023.09.14 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2]. Core Views - The company has achieved a dividend payout ratio of 90%, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 4.7% for 2023, making it an attractive option for stable returns in the consumer services sector amid valuation pressures [6]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 at CNY 5.2 billion and CNY 5.8 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at CNY 6.4 billion, corresponding to EPS of CNY 0.93, CNY 1.03, and CNY 1.1 [6]. - The target price is set at CNY 18.54, approximately HKD 20.43, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of CNY 41.45 billion, a 34% increase, and a net profit of CNY 4.5 billion, a 175% increase, with a net profit margin of 10.9%, up by 5.6 percentage points [6]. - The second half of 2023 saw revenue of CNY 22.6 billion, a 42% increase, and a net profit of CNY 2.24 billion, a 43% increase, with a net profit margin of 10.4% [6]. - The company opened a net of 3 new stores in 2023, with a cautious approach to expansion, reflecting a focus on cost control and efficiency [6]. Operational Insights - The company has seen an increase in table turnover rates across various city tiers, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing increases of 12%, 11%, and 13% respectively, while average customer spending has decreased by 4% [6]. - Cost efficiency has improved significantly, with material costs, employee compensation, and rental expenses showing a favorable trend [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.22, compared to the current price of HKD 17.66 [1][2]. Core Insights - Haidilao reported a revenue of HKD 41.453 billion for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 4.499 billion, up 175% year-on-year, primarily due to revenue recovery and cost savings from refined operations [2]. - The company plans to slow down its store openings, with only 9 new stores opened in 2023, while 26 previously closed stores resumed operations and 32 underperforming stores were shut down. As of the end of 2023, Haidilao operated 1,374 restaurants [2]. - Haidilao is enhancing innovation by establishing an innovation office and diversifying its brand portfolio to include fast food, barbecue, and traditional Chinese cuisine. The company is also focusing on improving customer dining experiences through various promotional activities [2]. - The same-store turnover rate improved significantly, with an average of 3.9 times for stores open for over 300 days, compared to 3.0 times in the previous year. The turnover rate in first-tier cities increased from 3.2 to 4.1 times [2]. - Despite a decline in average customer spending due to increased promotional activities, operational efficiency improved, leading to a reduction in costs. The cost of goods sold (COGS) as a percentage of revenue decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 40.9% [2]. - The report projects an increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026, with estimates of HKD 0.98, HKD 1.08, and HKD 1.12 respectively, leading to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x for 2024 [2][3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was HKD 41,622 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 4,499 million, reflecting a growth rate of 174.7% [3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is HKD 48,675 million, with a growth rate of 16.9%, and for 2025, it is expected to reach HKD 54,564 million, with a growth rate of 12.1% [3]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 984.37 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.33% and a net asset value per share of HKD 2.07 [6].

Group 1: Financial Performance - Haidilao reported a total revenue of 41.453 billion RMB for the year ending December 31, 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.6%, with a net profit of 4.495 billion RMB, up approximately 174.6% [1] - Jiumaojiu's revenue for 2023 was approximately 5.986 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%, with a net profit of 453 million RMB, reflecting an over 800% growth [1] - Xiaobai Xiaobai is expected to generate revenue of around 5.9 billion RMB in 2023, with a net loss projected between 180 million to 200 million RMB, marking a cumulative loss of over 800 million RMB over three years [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The hot pot sector remains competitive, with brands like Haidilao and Jiumaojiu innovating and expanding their product offerings to maintain market share [8][10] - The snack food sector, particularly the marinated food segment, is experiencing growth, with brands like Juewei Duck Neck expected to achieve revenue between 7.2 billion to 7.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.71% to 10.22% [5] - The tea beverage industry is seeing significant competition, with 52,000 new tea companies registered in 2023, while Luckin Coffee reported a revenue of 24.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 87.3% [7] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Companies are focusing on product innovation, with Haidilao launching 29 new national products and Jiumaojiu introducing a new Guizhou sour soup hot pot to capitalize on market trends [10][11] - Expansion strategies are evident, with Juewei Foods reporting a net increase of 1,086 stores in the first half of 2023, and Luckin Coffee opening 8,034 new stores, a 97.8% increase year-on-year [11] - Marketing strategies are crucial, with brands leveraging collaborations and events to enhance visibility, such as Luckin's partnership with Moutai and Haidilao's various promotional activities [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao [5][9]. Core Views - Haidilao's operating efficiency continues to improve, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio from 34% in 2022 to 90% in 2023, enhancing investment attractiveness [7]. - The company reported a revenue of 41.45 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, and a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, up 227.3% year-on-year [5][9]. - The introduction of a franchise model is expected to reduce financial pressure and operational risks, with plans to explore this model using existing stores initially [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Haidilao achieved a revenue of 414.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 45 billion yuan, reflecting a strong recovery in consumer dining frequency and effective marketing strategies [5][6]. - The overall table turnover rate improved to 3.8 times per day in 2023, up from 3.0 times in 2022, indicating enhanced customer engagement [6][7]. - The company plans to maintain its store count in 2024, with a focus on opening new stores under the franchise model [8]. Revenue Structure - Revenue from restaurant operations, takeout, and other sales segments were 392.67 billion, 10.41 billion, and 3.46 billion yuan respectively, with notable growth in the seasoning products segment [6]. - The average customer spending decreased to 99.1 yuan in 2023 from 104.9 yuan in 2022, but has stabilized in early 2024 [6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin for 2023 was 10.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, despite a slight decline in the second half of the year due to rising employee costs [7][9]. - The company has managed to reduce the proportion of raw material costs to 40.9% and employee costs to 31.5% of total expenses in 2023 [7]. Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been raised to 5.26 billion and 5.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on operational efficiency and market recovery [9][10]. - The introduction of the franchise model is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's performance in the coming years [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao, with a target price of 16.86 HKD [3]. Core Insights - Haidilao's revenue for 2023 reached 41.453 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 33.55%, with a notable rise in restaurant operating income [2]. - The company reported a significant improvement in net profit, reaching 4.499 billion CNY, up 174.59% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 10.85%, an increase of 5.57 percentage points [2]. - The introduction of a franchise model in March 2024 aims to explore new growth avenues while maintaining operational quality [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Haidilao's total revenue was 41.453 billion CNY, with restaurant operating income at 39.613 billion CNY, reflecting a 36.19% increase [2]. - The company achieved a pre-tax profit of 5.833 billion CNY, a 175.45% increase, and a net profit of 4.499 billion CNY, marking a 174.59% growth [2]. - The average table turnover rate improved to 3.8 times per day, up from 3.0 times in the previous year, while the average customer spending decreased to 99.1 CNY from 104.9 CNY [2]. Business Segments - Restaurant operating income for 2023 was 39.267 billion CNY, up 35.67%, while takeaway revenue decreased by 18.64% to 1.041 billion CNY [2]. - The company also saw a significant increase in other restaurant operating income, which rose by 139.79% to 346 million CNY [2]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for growth through the franchise model, which will be managed by Haidilao to ensure quality control [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.141 billion CNY, 5.841 billion CNY, and 6.461 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17X, 15X, and 13X [3].