作者 | 贝隆行业研究 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 导语： 一部春节营销史，本质是国民级流量入口的迭代史。 这一次，阿里掷下 30 亿，试图重写 中国 互联网 春节战争 的历史剧本。 2026 年 2 月 2 日，千问 APP 宣布投入 30 亿元启动"春节请客计划"，以免单形式请全国人民在春节期间吃喝玩 乐，感受 AI 时代的全新生活方式。 这一数字不仅刷新了阿里历史上春节活动投入纪录，在今年春节大厂 AI 大战中投入金额也是最高。 与往年的春节红包大战不同的是，这一次，阿里正试图用 30 亿"免单"铺就一条直通 AI 智能体时代的快车道，而 随之有望带来的是—— 互联网的底层入口迎来移动时代以来最深刻的一次重构。 2 月 6 日，这场旨在重塑人机交互本源的"习惯革命"，即将全面开启。 01 30 亿背后的阿里生态 AI 化总动员 此次阿里巴巴为千问 App 掷下的 30 亿"春节请客计划"，这绝不能简单看作是一场常规的节庆营销，而更应该将其 视为一次指向明确的 战略总动员。 表面看 是 大手笔的 " 请客 " ， 但其 内核 却始终围绕着 " 接入 " 来展开。值得一提 ...

最近 百度、腾讯、阿里巴巴 三大互联网巨头 再度掀起"红包大战" 投入总金额高达60亿元 与往年单纯拼手速抢现金不同，今年的战场多了一位关键角色——人工智能（AI）。各家纷纷将红包激励与AI产品深度绑定，并提前上线群聊功能，试 图借春节这一全民社交高峰，抢占AI时代的用户心智，争夺"国民级AI应用"的入场券。 行业观察人士指出，当前AI推广正从传统的"拉新补贴"模式，转向更注重价值创造的"任务激励"机制。唯有将撒钱式的红包转化为用户完成具体任务后的 奖励，才能真正构建基于AI实用价值的护城河。 1 1月25日，百度率先宣布启动"5亿元红包计划"：自1月26日至3月12日，用户在百度App中使用其AI助手"文心助手"，即有机会瓜分总额5亿元的现金红 包，单人最高可得1万元。作为百度面向个人用户的核心AI入口，文心助手上线首日便吸引超百万人次参与，单笔红包最高达6666元。百度方面表示，活 动效果远超预期，已扩容系统以承接更多用户。截止2月1日，已有5000万人次参与文心助手的AI抢红包。 几乎同步，腾讯迅速加码，将红包池翻倍至10亿元，并于2月1日起通过其AI应用"元宝"开启抽奖活动。腾讯创始人马化腾在内部年会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition between Alibaba and Tencent during the Spring Festival is reignited, with Alibaba's Ma Yun planning to invest 3 billion yuan in a promotional campaign through the Qianwen app, aiming to leverage AI applications and capture market share in the AI era [2][5]. Group 1: Alibaba's Strategy - Alibaba's Qianwen app will launch a 30 billion yuan campaign during the Spring Festival, marking the largest investment in its history for such events [2]. - The campaign emphasizes "eating, drinking, and entertainment" with a focus on AI-driven services, including features for movie ticket purchases and other consumer needs [4]. - Qianwen has integrated with various Alibaba platforms, offering over 400 new functionalities to enhance user experience [3][4]. Group 2: Tencent's Response - Tencent's Ma Huateng has also entered the Spring Festival competition with a 1 billion yuan initiative, launching the Yuanbao red envelope activity, which has quickly gained popularity [5]. - The Yuanbao app reached the top of the Apple Store's free app downloads, indicating strong user engagement [5]. - Ma Huateng expressed hopes to replicate the success of the original WeChat red envelope moment from eleven years ago [5]. Group 3: Industry Competition - The Spring Festival has become a battleground for major internet companies, with Baidu and ByteDance also launching significant promotional activities [5]. - Baidu's Wenxin assistant offers a chance to win 500 million yuan in cash rewards, while ByteDance's Doubao will participate in the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala [5]. - The competition is characterized by a focus on user engagement and the ability to convert short-term traffic into long-term user retention [8][9]. Group 4: AI Integration - Qianwen's recent upgrades include the integration of Alibaba's flagship reasoning model, Qwen3-Max-Thinking, which boasts over 1 trillion parameters and 36 trillion tokens of pre-training data [4]. - The app's capabilities in AI are expected to enhance user experience and service efficiency, positioning it as a leader in the AI open-source community [4]. - The emphasis on practical AI applications aims to differentiate Qianwen from competitors who focus primarily on cash incentives [7].

Market Overview - Southbound funds traded approximately HKD 138.285 billion today, a significant increase of about HKD 21.8 billion compared to the previous day, accounting for 39.75% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index, which has been below 40% for several consecutive days [2] - Despite the Hong Kong stock market accelerating downward, southbound funds saw a net inflow of approximately HKD 1.907 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net inflow of about HKD 2.738 billion, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced a net outflow of approximately HKD 0.83 billion [2] Individual Stock Performance - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) saw a significant net buy of HKD 1.304 billion, while its stock price fell by 1.24% [2][3] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) had a net buy of HKD 0.278 billion, with a stock price decline of 1.24% [2][3] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK) experienced a net outflow of HKD 0.615 billion and a sharp decline of 11.24% [2][4] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) had a net outflow of HKD 0.464 billion, with a stock price drop of 5.58% [2][4] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) saw a net outflow of HKD 0.393 billion and a decline of 4.69% [2][4] - Alibaba-W (09988.HK) experienced a net outflow of HKD 0.329 billion, with a stock price decrease of 3.49% [2][4] - SMIC (00981.HK) had a net outflow of HKD 0.162 billion, with a decline of 4.24% [2][4] Trading Activity - In the top ten active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai), Alibaba-W had a net outflow of HKD 0.816 billion, while Tencent Holdings had a net inflow of HKD 0.880 billion [5] - On the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Alibaba-W recorded a net inflow of HKD 0.488 billion, while Huahong Semiconductor had a significant net outflow of HKD 0.554 billion [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound capital, with a total net buy of HKD 19.07 billion on February 2, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net sell-offs [1]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Activity - Northbound capital recorded a net buy of HKD 27.38 billion through the Shanghai Stock Connect and a net sell of HKD 8.3 billion through the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most bought stocks included Tencent (00700), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and China Life (02628) [1]. - The most sold stocks were Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), Zijin Mining (02899), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net sell of HKD 3.28 billion, with plans to invest HKD 30 billion in a "Spring Festival Treat Plan" [6][7]. - Tencent (00700) saw a net buy of HKD 13.03 billion, boosted by the launch of its "Yuanbao" Spring Festival red envelope activity, which is expected to increase downloads and user engagement [4]. - China Life (02628) received a net buy of HKD 1.87 billion, supported by positive forecasts for its individual insurance sales [5]. - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced a net sell of HKD 6.15 billion, amid tightening order reviews from major chip manufacturers [6]. - Zijin Mining (02899) experienced a net sell of HKD 4.64 billion, as it announced plans to issue USD 1.5 billion zero-coupon convertible bonds for project financing [7].

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival marks a significant shift in the internet industry's traditional red envelope competition, evolving into a battle for AI entry points among major players like Tencent, Baidu, ByteDance, and Alibaba, with a total cash investment exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [1][19] Group 1: Tencent's Strategy - Tencent has allocated 1 billion yuan for its "Yuanbao" red envelope campaign, which is structured in three phases from February 1 to February 17, 2026, requiring users to meet specific conditions for participation [3][17] - The campaign includes various interactive modules, such as daily login rewards, sharing links for additional chances, and a surprise "red envelope rain" event, enhancing user engagement [5][6] Group 2: Baidu's Approach - Baidu has invested 500 million yuan in its red envelope initiative, running from January 26 to March 12, 2026, featuring no withdrawal threshold and rapid cash transfer [7][19] - The campaign includes diverse interactive elements like AI-generated videos, password guessing games, and social sharing, aimed at maximizing user participation and engagement [9][10] Group 3: ByteDance's Tactics - ByteDance is leveraging its partnership with CCTV for the Spring Festival, investing 500 million yuan in dual-platform activities on Doubao App and Douyin, focusing on card collection and real-time interaction [10][12] - The campaign features various tasks and rewards, including a significant cash pool for early participants, enhancing user interaction during the live broadcast of the Spring Festival Gala [12][19] Group 4: Alibaba's Integration - Alibaba's "Qianwen" initiative integrates AI with its traditional "Jiwu" campaign, allowing users to generate personalized blessings and participate in various interactive tasks across its ecosystem [13][16] - The campaign emphasizes AI-driven functionalities that enhance user experience in shopping and travel planning, aiming to create a seamless interaction between AI and consumer activities [16][19] Group 5: Industry Trends - The competition among these tech giants signifies a transition from mere traffic acquisition to a focus on user engagement and AI integration, marking a pivotal moment in the AI-to-C consumer landscape [17][19] - Experts suggest that this red envelope battle could serve as a watershed moment for C-end AI applications, potentially reshaping user perceptions and acceptance of AI technologies in everyday scenarios [19][20]

Group 1 - Tencent launched a cash red envelope campaign worth 1 billion yuan through its AI assistant "Yuanbao," starting on February 1, with various forms of red envelopes available for users [1][2] - The campaign has generated significant user engagement, leading to "Yuanbao" topping the free app charts on the Apple Store shortly after the launch, despite experiencing temporary service instability due to high traffic [2] - Tencent's CEO, Ma Huateng, expressed hopes that "Yuanbao" could replicate the success of WeChat's red envelope feature from 2015, which significantly increased user engagement and payment adoption [3] Group 2 - Alibaba responded to Tencent's initiative by launching a "Spring Festival Treat Plan" with an investment of 3 billion yuan, marking the largest investment in its Spring Festival activities to date [4] - The "Qianwen" app, part of Alibaba's initiative, aims to enhance user experiences during the Spring Festival through various services, although specific details of the campaign will be revealed on February 6 [4] - Other companies like Baidu and ByteDance are also participating in the competitive landscape, with Baidu announcing a 500 million yuan red envelope campaign and ByteDance focusing on AI integration for the upcoming Spring Festival Gala [6][5] Group 3 - The commercialization of AI applications is becoming a focal point for major internet companies, with analysts predicting significant advancements in AI capabilities and applications in 2026 [7] - The current trend of substantial financial investments in AI initiatives is expected to enhance user retention and engagement, although the long-term impact remains to be seen [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in global AIDC demand, with major cloud service providers increasing capital expenditures and adjusting pricing strategies. For instance, Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $125 billion, a 73% year-on-year increase [2]. - The report emphasizes that the AIDC industry is entering a new structural expansion cycle, driven by the scarcity of computing power and rising costs in the supply chain, including a forecasted 12% CAGR growth in the global cloud computing market from approximately $1.29 trillion in 2025 to about $2.28 trillion by 2030 [7]. - The competition in the AI model space is intensifying, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent rapidly advancing their AI capabilities, which is expected to drive backend demand for computing resources [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AIDC market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.5%, shifting the industry's core barriers from capital investment to technology integration and operational efficiency [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the demand for AIDC is being fueled by the rapid evolution of AI models, which necessitates significant computational resources. This shift is prompting cloud service providers to raise prices, breaking a long-standing trend of price reductions in the industry [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key players across different segments: 1. Cloud Computing: Alibaba, NET, Shenxinfu, Kingsoft Cloud, New Idea Network Group, and UCloud [7] 2. AIDC: Runze Technology, Baoxin Software, Data Port, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, and Yunsai Zhili [7] 3. Computing Services: Xiechuang Data, Hongjing Technology, Dazhi Technology, Youfang Technology, Litong Electronics, and Zhiwei Intelligent [7] 4. CDN: Wangsu Technology [7] 5. Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambrian, Muxi Shares, Tianshu Zhixin, Moer Thread, and Longxin Zhongke [7] 6. Large Models: Minimax, Zhipu, and iFlytek [7].

上一次互联网巨头在春节集体"发钱"，还要追溯到2015年移动支付的跑马圈地期。从过往来看，春节活 动能有效帮助互联网大厂为to C应用吸引大量关注。花旗预计，在一系列新春推广活动后，中国AI助手 应用采用将快速推进。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 红包"大战"又来了！阿里旗下千问APP宣布投入30亿启动"春节请客计划"，于2月6日正式上线。联合淘 宝闪购、飞猪、大麦、盒马、天猫超市、支付宝等阿里生态业务，以免单形式请全国人民在春节期间吃 喝玩乐。 此前，1月26日，百度旗下AI应用文心助手上线春节红包活动，用户可以分5亿元现金红包，最高可获1 万元。2月1日，腾讯旗下"元宝"也启动春节红包活动，用户上线参加活动就可分10亿元现金红包，单个 红包金额可达万元。 ...

记者了解到，"千问春节请客计划"将于2月6日正式上线，淘宝闪购、飞猪、大麦、盒马、天猫超市、支 付宝等阿里生态业务也将加入千问春节攻势，强调"吃喝玩乐 免单不停"，还有大额现金红包，但官方 尚未透露具体的活动形式。 一位千问APP内部人士透露，"半个月前的发布，其实就是在为春节攻势做准备。市面上大部分AI助手 还停留在聊天阶段，而千问希望在今年春节期间，融入到人们生活消费之中。"此前，阿里集团副总裁 吴嘉也在采访中透露，千问春节后有望开放第三方业务生态入驻。 【#阿里投30亿加入AI春节大战#，#AI应用春节大战升级#】2月2日，继百度、豆包后，阿里千问也加 入春节红包大战。千问APP宣布投入30亿启动"春节请客计划"，以免单形式推广千问APP的AI购物。 此前，1月15日，千问APP宣布接入淘宝闪购、支付宝、淘宝、飞猪、高德等阿里生态场景，实现千问 app内一句话点外卖等。此外，记者获悉，千问app的AI买电影票功能正在灰测，即将全面上线。 ...