Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Market Cap**: US$44.798 billion - **Current Share Price**: HK$259.60 (as of October 10, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$382.00 - **52-Week Range**: HK$339.80 - HK$57.00 - **Shares Outstanding**: 1,343 million - **Average Daily Trading Value**: US$257 million Industry Context - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Dynamics**: The US is a significant market for IP products, where Pop Mart has strong consumer appeal and limited direct competition [3][7] Key Financial Insights - **Tariff Impact**: - Basic figures retailed at approximately US$17 before April 10, 2025, with new launches priced at US$19-20 [2] - Existing figures increased to US$19-20 in May-June 2025, anticipating a potential 50-55% tariff on toys from China [2] - Actual toy tariff has remained around 30% since May 2025, leading to an estimated US GPM of ~80% in 1H25 [2] - If tariffs remain unchanged, US GPM is expected to be higher in 2H25 [2] - A potential increase to ~130% tariff could lead to a price increase of ~US$4.5 for basic plush and ~US$3 for basic figures, maintaining GP/OP per unit [2] Strategic Insights - **Supply Chain Management**: - Pop Mart has effectively managed its supply chain and tariff mitigation strategies [3] - The company had plans to source a majority of US merchandise from Vietnam, which were postponed due to easing trade tensions [7] - It would take approximately 4-6 months to shift the supply chain if necessary, although efficiency in Vietnam would lag behind China [7] Earnings Projections - **Earnings Impact**: - In a scenario with a 130% tariff and no pricing adjustments, the estimated earnings impact for 2025 would be around 1% [7] Valuation and Growth Potential - **Valuation Methodology**: - Base case value is based on a target P/E of 42x for 2025, implying a PEG of ~1.6x on a 2025-27 EPS CAGR [8] - **Growth Drivers**: - Continued sales momentum in China and overseas markets, successful product line expansion, and new IP initiatives are expected to drive further re-rating [8] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Faster overseas growth, successful rollout of popular products, and retention of momentum in China [10] - **Downside Risks**: - Weak macro environment, uncertainties related to new products, and unsuccessful overseas expansion [10] Conclusion - Pop Mart International Group is positioned well within the consumer market, with effective management of tariff impacts and a strong growth outlook driven by product innovation and market expansion strategies. The company remains a top pick in the China/Hong Kong consumer sector, with a favorable valuation and growth potential despite potential risks associated with macroeconomic conditions and trade tensions.

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Pop Mart, a company in the collectible toys industry, particularly known for its designer toys and figures. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance** - In September, offline sales growth is expected to remain consistent with August, driven by restocking and new product launches, particularly the mini Labubu series [2][4] - Douyin channel sales growth exceeded the peak in February, marking a new high for the year, attributed to the 3.0 version restocking and promotional events [2][4] - Tmall platform maintained over 80% year-on-year growth, while JD platform saw nearly 100% growth in July-August, generating approximately 35.6 million yuan [2][4] 2. **New Product Launches** - September saw the launch of several new products, including the "Demo's Today is Sunday" series, which gained significant traction on social media [3] - Other notable new products included "Little Sweet Bean's Day," "New Star People," and "Gisgai's Heart Bear," with two being made of flocked material [3] 3. **International Expansion** - Pop Mart is actively expanding its overseas market, opening three new stores in the United States, with additional openings in Singapore, Canada, Bordeaux, France, and the Middle East [2][5] 4. **Marketing Season Expectations** - The second half of the year is anticipated to be a peak marketing season, with a higher volume and quality of new products compared to the first half [2][6] - Traditional peak sales periods such as Halloween and Christmas are expected to drive significant sales [6] 5. **Financial Projections** - The company forecasts a year-on-year revenue growth of over 150% in the third quarter of 2025, with positive impacts on annual profits expected from the third-quarter performance [2][6] 6. **Response to Tariff Costs** - Pop Mart is managing rising tariff costs through a global supply chain and the ability to pass some costs onto consumers, with price increases observed in both hard figures and plush series [2][7] - The company's stock price has shown resilience, recovering from a significant drop earlier in the year, indicating effective strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [7] Other Important Insights - The performance of new products and the effectiveness of marketing strategies are crucial for maintaining growth in a competitive market [3][6] - The company's ability to adapt to external economic pressures, such as tariffs, reflects its operational strength and strategic planning [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the short-selling ratios and amounts for various companies, indicating significant market sentiment and potential investment opportunities or risks associated with these stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Short-Selling Ratios - Anta Sports-R (82020) and Great Wall Motors-R (82333) have the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00% [1][2]. - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) follows closely with a short-selling ratio of 95.69% [1][2]. - Other notable companies with high short-selling ratios include JD Group-SWR (89618) at 94.72% and Bank of China Hong Kong-R (82388) at 77.81% [2]. Group 2: Short-Selling Amounts - Alibaba-SW (09988) leads in short-selling amount with 3.213 billion [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) and Tencent Holdings (00700) follow with short-selling amounts of 1.740 billion and 1.605 billion, respectively [2]. - Other companies in the top short-selling amounts include Pop Mart (09992) at 1.290 billion and Baidu Group-SW (09888) at 1.044 billion [2]. Group 3: Deviation Values - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) has the highest deviation value at 47.78%, indicating a significant difference from its average short-selling ratio over the past 30 days [1][2]. - JD Group-SWR (89618) and China Lilang (01234) also show high deviation values of 45.61% and 44.19%, respectively [1][2]. - Other companies with notable deviation values include Great Wall Motors-R (82333) at 34.51% and SenseTime-WR (80020) at 34.02% [2].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the sustainable practices of the Yida Group's "Ten Ru Factory" in Guilin, showcasing a new direction for Chinese manufacturing that integrates environmental and employee well-being into its operations [2][4][6]. - The factory consists of four main parts: yarn factory, garment factory, plant dyeing workshop, and office + dining area, promoting a collaborative work environment without fixed workstations [4][6]. - The factory has been recognized as a zero-carbon park this year, highlighting its commitment to sustainability [2][6]. Group 2 - Energy-saving measures include the use of low-radiation glass and solar energy to power part of the facility [6]. - The factory emphasizes material recycling, such as reusing yarn tubes and steel pipes for decoration, and employs plant-based dyes for all fabrics [6][8]. - The factory's smart spinning technology allows for a production capacity of 6,000 tons of yarn annually with only 100 workers, demonstrating high efficiency [6][8]. Group 3 - Employee welfare is prioritized through a nutritionist-designed meal plan, a dining app linked to health reports, and initiatives to reduce food waste [6][8]. - The company fosters a culture of personal responsibility among employees, encouraging them to maintain cleanliness in shared spaces [6][8]. - Housing for employees is provided in community apartments rather than factory dormitories, promoting a sense of home and equality among staff [6][8]. Group 4 - The article also discusses the shift in the fashion industry, where accessory brands are gaining prominence over traditional clothing brands, reflecting consumer behavior during economic downturns [10][11]. - Pop Mart's revenue surpassing Disney's in the first half of 2025 highlights a significant trend in the toy industry, where visual IPs are becoming more appealing than narrative-driven products [30][31]. - The contrasting growth strategies of Pop Mart and Disney illustrate the evolving landscape of consumer preferences, with Pop Mart focusing on market expansion and Disney relying on content production [33][38].

点击上图▲立即收听 " 试图把现场体验当作商品，你就有可能毁掉这种体验。 " 坊间曾言，人生有三友，医生、律师、保险专家……如今可能要不情不愿改成： "人生有三友：医生、律师和黄牛。" 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 欲望无处不在，黄牛亦如是。 就拿刚刚过去的国庆假期来说，景德镇的"鸡排哥"李俊永在被流量层层围住的同时，也成了黄牛的逐利对象。 原价6块一份的鸡排，若是"开摊第一份"，将被卖到200元；若只为一口鸡排，黄牛开价30-50元替人排队；若不想排队又想见鸡排哥，150元转让 靠前排队号码…… 看起来虽然很荒唐，但在黄牛眼中，能说会道、擅长制造情绪价值的"鸡排哥"是时下最热的"社交货币"。由此，"见到了鸡排哥"或"吃到鸡排哥的 鸡排"的现场体验，俨然变成了一张张能加价卖出的"演唱会门票"。 如今，我们的生活中，很难不和擅长"捕捉流量"的黄牛发生联结：从一张演唱会的门票、一个热门景区的预约名额、一座知名高校的参观，到一款 不知结果的爆款盲盒、一家网红餐厅的位置、一台新款顶配手机、一次足球比赛、一场大型展会等等。 与此同时，他们的话语权，也变得越来越大了。 —— 阿兰 · 克鲁格（经济学家） 流量 ...

Group 1: TOP TOY IPO - TOP TOY has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with JPMorgan, UBS, and CITIC Securities as joint sponsors [1] - In 2024, TOP TOY achieved a GMV of 2.4 billion yuan in mainland China, with nearly 50% of revenue coming from self-developed products [1] - The company's GMV has a compound annual growth rate of over 50% from 2022 to 2024, and successful IPO funding will support its IP matrix expansion and global layout [1] Group 2: Pinduoduo's Fast Group - Pinduoduo's Fast Group is testing a "pre-order/takeaway" service for restaurants and hotels, initially recruiting merchants in Jiangsu and Hunan [2] - Users can pre-order cooked food items on the platform and either pick them up or have them delivered by the merchants [2] Group 3: JD Logistics Acquisition - JD Logistics announced it will acquire its wholly-owned subsidiary engaged in local instant delivery from JD Group for $270 million [3] - This acquisition aims to enhance JD Logistics' last-mile delivery capabilities and expand its integrated supply chain solutions [3] Group 4: Wahaha Leadership Change - Zong Fuli has resigned from her positions as legal representative, director, and chairman of Wahaha Group, effective September 12 [5] - The resignation is reportedly due to trademark compliance issues, leading to the decision to rebrand to "Wawa Xiaozong" starting from the 2026 sales year [5] Group 5: New Consumption Trends - CBNData's New Consumption Weekly highlights the latest trends in the new consumption sector, including a new module focusing on technological innovations [6] Group 6: Natural堂 IPO and Investment - Natural堂, a domestic beauty giant, is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong after securing 300 million yuan in investment from Guohua Capital for a 4.20% stake [10] - The company has a valuation exceeding 7.1 billion yuan following this round of financing [10] Group 7: Dongpeng Beverage IPO - Dongpeng Beverage has re-submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors including Huatai International and Morgan Stanley [10] - The company reported a revenue CAGR of 36.5% and a net profit growth rate of 52% over the past three years [10] Group 8: Starbucks Restructuring - Starbucks has initiated a second round of layoffs, planning to close hundreds of stores in North America and Europe, affecting approximately 900 employees [11] - The company has faced a decline in sales in North America for six consecutive quarters, with a 2% year-on-year drop reported for Q3 of fiscal 2025 [11] Group 9: International Gold Prices - International gold prices reached a historic high of $4,061.2 per ounce during the recent holiday period, driven by increased market risk aversion [15][16] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and the suspension of economic data releases [16] Group 10: Didi Autonomous Driving Funding - Didi Autonomous Driving has secured 2 billion yuan in Series D funding, aimed at enhancing AI research and promoting L4 autonomous driving applications [18] - The company has commenced full-scene, fully driverless testing in Beijing and Guangzhou, with plans for new autonomous vehicles to be delivered by the end of the year [18] Group 11: Chiikawa Flagship Store - The first offline flagship store for the popular Japanese IP "Chiikawa" has opened in Shanghai, covering over 500 square meters [23] - The store features exclusive products for the Chinese market and is seen as a key move for localizing operations [23]

名创优品旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY正式向港交所递交招股书，寻求分拆上市。TOP TOY定位潮玩集合零 售，近年增长迅速，但与依赖自有IP的行业龙头泡泡玛特相比，在IP壁垒和盈利能力上仍有差距。 ...

Group 1 - Zong Fuli has resigned from her positions as Chairman and General Manager of Wahaha Group, effective September 12, due to trademark compliance issues and plans to focus on her own brand "Wah Xiaozong" [3] - Core member Yan Xuefeng of Wahaha Group, previously under investigation, has returned to work after being cleared of allegations [3] - ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming made a public appearance for the first time in years, launching the Shanghai Xuhui Zhichun Innovation Center aimed at nurturing talent in computer science and AI [3] Group 2 - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's market regulator for allegedly failing to report its acquisition of Autotalks, potentially violating antitrust laws [5] - Xibei's founder responded to the logo change at a specific location, stating it is a small-scale trial and will not be implemented nationwide [5] Group 3 - ByteDance announced a new employee support policy providing up to 7.2 million yuan in transitional subsidies for employees laid off due to organizational adjustments [7] - DJI's recent price cuts on multiple products have led to controversy, with some stores in Shenzhen offering price difference refunds for purchases made during a specific period [7] - AI company Zhipu has denied rumors of layoffs before its IPO, stating it has nearly 50 job openings available [7] Group 4 - The ongoing trademark dispute between Jia Duo Bao and Wang Laoji has escalated, with both parties claiming ownership of the overseas Wang Laoji trademark [7] - Ding Tai Fung announced the closure of its WeChat store and has already shut down over ten physical locations due to brand operational adjustments [7] Group 5 - Former CBO of Zeekr, Guan Haitao, confirmed his departure from the company for personal reasons [10] - Pop Mart's Halloween series blind boxes sold out quickly, with one hidden variant seeing a price increase of over 13 times its original price [10] Group 6 - Zheng Qinwen has been named the first global brand ambassador for Bawang Tea [11] - TIME magazine's annual list of 300 best inventions includes products from companies like Huawei, BYD, and Apple [11] Group 7 - Great Wall Motors is adjusting its direct sales channels, with the Tank brand being phased out in favor of the Wey brand [16] - Meituan's community supermarket "Happy Monkey" is set to open its first northern store in Yanjiao, Hebei, on October 17 [16] Group 8 - Standard Chartered China has completed its first domestic RMB aircraft financing loan of 1 billion yuan for China Eastern Airlines [19] - Blue Sky Aviation has secured several million yuan in angel financing to develop its eVTOL products [20] Group 9 - Leapmotor has released teaser images for its luxury flagship SUV D19, set to debut on October 16 [21] - IDC reported that Lenovo holds a 25.5% market share in the global PC market, leading with 19.4 million units shipped [23]

Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) market is entering a new competitive phase, with MINISO's own潮玩 brand "WAKUKU" challenging the long-standing dominance of Pop Mart in the industry [3][4] - The潮玩 industry in China is projected to reach a total value of 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 20% [4] - The market remains highly fragmented, with even leading players like Pop Mart holding only an 11.5% market share by GMV in 2024, indicating ample room for new entrants [6] Industry Growth and Competition - The潮玩 market has seen a continuous increase in scale, with over 50,000 related enterprises currently in operation [5] - WAKUKU's strategy of offering products at fixed prices rather than through random draws is expected to lower purchase barriers and expand its consumer base [6] - The success of WAKUKU has led to increased attention from investors, with reports of potential investments in潮玩 brands like TNT [7] Brand Development and IP Strategy - The success of LABUBU, a潮玩 brand, highlights the importance of storytelling and cultural integration in building a globally recognized IP [8][11] - Pop Mart has seen a significant increase in its market value, with its stock price rising approximately 470% over the past year, surpassing the combined market value of major international toy companies [11] - The competition between Pop Mart and MINISO reflects different strategic approaches, with Pop Mart focusing on IP ecosystem development and MINISO leveraging its extensive distribution channels [12] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The潮玩 industry is transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to one of consolidation, where companies with strong original design and cultural branding will dominate [12] - The emergence of imitation products has raised concerns about market trust and product differentiation, potentially impacting the overall潮玩 market [13] - Strengthening IP protection is crucial for maintaining brand integrity and fostering consumer trust in the潮玩 sector [14]

Core Insights - On October 10, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 140.49 billion, 86.63 billion, and 42.68 billion respectively [1][2] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 77.88 billion, 48.07 billion, and 26.41 billion respectively [1][2] Southbound Trading Highlights - The top three active companies in the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect were: - Alibaba-W (09988): 140.49 billion with a net buy of -13.44 billion - SMIC (00981): 86.63 billion with a net buy of -14.69 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700): 42.68 billion with a net buy of -11.60 billion [2] - The top three active companies in the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect were: - Alibaba-W (09988): 77.88 billion with a net buy of -4.67 billion - SMIC (00981): 48.07 billion with a net buy of -12.39 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700): 26.41 billion with a net buy of +2.09 billion [2]