Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the collectibles and toys sector Key Points and Arguments Stock Performance and Valuation - The stock price has rebounded following a significant buyback, similar to actions taken in early 2022 and 2023, providing support for future performance. The current valuation is approximately 16 times earnings, which is lower than other consumer stocks, maintaining a recommendation rating [2][4] North American Market Concerns - The North American market is a critical factor influencing Pop Mart's stock price. Despite the maturity of the Chinese and Asian markets, growth concerns remain in North America. The company did not release any related products in Q4 to test the performance of other IPs and build foundational capabilities in the U.S. [2][5] Long-term Strategy for IPs - For 2026, Pop Mart plans to enhance the long-term operation of its main IP, Labubu, through more collaborations and new product launches. The introduction of a 10th-anniversary blind box card aims to increase IP diversity, with expectations of a partnership with Sony for a major film to boost brand value [2][5] Emerging IP Performance - The performance of emerging IPs has been strong, utilizing an industrialized system for new IP launches, focusing on high exposure, content creation, and multi-category operations. Data from TikTok live commerce indicates a significant increase in the share of emerging IPs, suggesting a robust product innovation mechanism [2][6] Growth Projections in China and Asia - The Chinese market is expected to see a natural growth rate of approximately 15% in 2026, with stable and healthy demand. Sales of blockbuster products are performing well. The Southeast Asian market is developing steadily, with notable improvements in East Asia, particularly in Japan and South Korea, where demand is strong and prices have increased [2][7] Store Expansion Plans - By the end of 2025, Pop Mart anticipates having 12 stores in the U.S., with plans to add 40 to 50 more in 2026, aiming for a doubling of store count. In Europe, Australia, and other regions, around 15 new stores are expected. Overall revenue is projected to reach 50 billion, corresponding to a profit of 17.5 billion [2][7] Market Sentiment on Future Performance - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's performance in 2026. However, the strategy of delaying new product launches is seen as beneficial for building foundational capabilities. The company is optimistic about the long-term operation of its main IPs and the performance of its mid-tier IPs, such as DIMO and Scoop Panda, which have shown good results [3][8]

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Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Pop Mart (09992), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.015 billion, 908 million, and 821 million respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow of southbound funds were the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and China Mobile (00941), with net outflows of -2.244 billion, -1.247 billion, and -1.234 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Aux Group (02580), Wanwu Cloud (02602), and 361 Degrees (01361) led the market with ratios of 66.20%, 65.92%, and 56.40% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.015 billion with a net inflow ratio of 9.72% and a closing price of 599.500, up 0.76% [2] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a net inflow of 908 million with a net inflow ratio of 21.43% and a closing price of 217.600, down 0.91% [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of 821 million with a net inflow ratio of 14.83% and a closing price of 35.220, down 2.81% [2] Net Outflow Rankings - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) experienced the highest net outflow of -2.244 billion with a net outflow ratio of -13.05% and a closing price of 26.980, up 0.07% [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of -1.247 billion with a net outflow ratio of -11.06% and a closing price of 93.660, down 0.30% [2] - China Mobile (00941) faced a net outflow of -1.234 billion with a net outflow ratio of -49.20% and a closing price of 78.800, down 0.88% [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Aux Group (02580) led with a net inflow ratio of 66.20% and a net inflow of 7.7393 million, closing at 13.600, down 1.09% [3] - Wanwu Cloud (02602) followed with a net inflow ratio of 65.92% and a net inflow of 22.1130 million, closing at 19.020, down 2.46% [3] - 361 Degrees (01361) had a net inflow ratio of 56.40% with a net inflow of 4.0791 million, closing at 5.680, down 1.05% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its international production capacity and enhancing its IP platform capabilities to meet market demand, particularly in North America, while maintaining a solid domestic base. Group 1: Company Actions - The company has conducted two share buybacks, spending 2.51 million and 0.96 million HKD to repurchase 140,000 and 50,000 shares at average prices of 179.60 and 192.98 HKD per share respectively [1] - The company is accelerating the establishment of international production capacity, with a quick response from its Mexico base to address operational challenges and supply chain pressures [1] Group 2: IP Development - The company has successfully launched collaborations with popular IPs, such as SKULLPANDA's partnership with the hit series "Wednesday," receiving positive market feedback [1] - The company is expanding its IP matrix, with products like SKULLPANDA, DIMOO, and Crybaby entering the billion-yuan revenue tier, indicating a clear platform characteristic [1] Group 3: Market Performance - The company has seen strong sales of new products, with a series of launches in January leading to rapid sell-outs and significant resale premiums in the secondary market [1] - The domestic market remains solid, with a mature brand perception and balanced IP lineup, contributing to increased store efficiency and sales growth [1] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 12.235 billion, 17.475 billion, and 21.734 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 15, and 12 [2] - A target price of 319.85 HKD has been set based on a 22X PE for 2026, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is planning to expand its physical presence in North America by entering outlet malls and large shopping centers, which deviates from its previously disclosed expansion strategy and market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion Strategy - Pop Mart is engaging with Simon Property Group to establish new stores in over 20 shopping centers across the U.S., including Simon Malls and The Mills [2][3]. - The new stores will not be discount outlets but standard retail formats, indicating a strategic approach to enhance brand presence rather than merely clearing inventory [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 40% from its peak in August 2025, leading to mixed market sentiments regarding the sustainability of its growth trajectory [1]. - Despite the stock decline, the company has maintained strong revenue growth, with significant increases in various regions, including a 1142.3% increase in the Americas [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The collectible toy industry is experiencing intensified competition, with other brands like Miniso's Top Toy and 52Toys rapidly expanding their physical presence, increasing rental and customer acquisition costs [4]. - Pop Mart's market performance in North America has shown signs of slowing growth, with a notable decrease in sales growth rates for its LABUBU products [4]. Group 4: Financial Actions - On January 19, Pop Mart announced a share buyback of approximately HKD 251 million, which led to a 20% increase in stock price over the following week [1][5]. - The company has a history of share buybacks during market downturns, indicating management's confidence in its intrinsic value [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [2] Core Insights - Real estate data remains under pressure, but national subsidies and the expansion of the trade-in policy are driving a recovery in consumption. In 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China reached 881.01 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount reached 8393.68 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year. The number of transactions in 30 major cities increased by 50% year-on-year, with a transaction area growth of 38% [1][11] - The implementation of a 62.5 billion yuan national subsidy on January 1 has led to a rapid qualification exhaustion, and the trade-in policy now includes smart and elderly-friendly home products. Major companies like Mousse, Oppein, and Youban are exploring strategic development and transformation in the competitive stock market [1][69] Summary by Sections Industry Key Data Tracking - **Home Furnishing**: Real estate data remains under pressure, but the return of national subsidies is expected to boost downstream demand recovery [7] - **Packaging**: Stable downstream demand and continuous optimization of the competitive landscape [52] Industry News and Dynamics - **Home Furnishing**: Policies are driving a recovery in consumption, with leading home furnishing companies pushing for strategic transformation [69] - **Packaging**: Anti-involution measures are improving corporate difficulties, and digitalization is driving industry upgrades [70] Light Industry Performance in Capital Markets - **Industry Yield Performance**: From December 2025 to January 2026, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.66%, while the light industry manufacturing sector increased by 5.10%, ranking 19th among 31 sub-industries [73] - **Industry Valuation**: The valuation of the sector has slightly increased, with the PE-TTM for packaging printing, home furnishing, paper, and entertainment products at 41.74, 29.68, 32.38, and 48.91 respectively [78] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, it is recommended to focus on Oppein and Songlin Technology; for the packaging sector, attention should be on Aorijin, Yutong Technology, and Xianggang Technology; in the toy sector, focus on Pop Mart; in the paper sector, consider Jiulong Paper and Hengfeng Paper; additionally, the expansion of HNB is expected to drive high prosperity in the tobacco-related industry chain, recommending attention to China Tobacco Hong Kong [81]

证券简称成交金额净买入额收盘价涨跌幅腾讯控股 0070049.15亿港元12.09亿港元621.00港元23.10%泡泡玛特 0999229.14亿港元7.34亿港元231.40港元70.30%长飞光纤光缆 0686913.52亿港元2.98亿港元75.20港元154.30%中国海洋石油 0088353.86亿港元2.86亿港元24.66港元48.50%金山云 038966.63亿港元1.65亿港元7.81港元34.40%云知声 0967819.62亿港元0.74亿港元382.00港元737.90%华虹半导体 013477.52亿港元0.45亿港元122.70港元74.40%小米集团－Ｗ 0181027.27亿港元-0.59亿港元36.32港元21.40%中芯国际 0098158.16亿港元-3.79亿港元79.30港元35.20%中国移动 0094132.78亿港元-7.48亿港元80.90港元30.60%紫金矿业 0289944.92亿港元-8.54亿港元44.76港元31.30%阿里巴巴－Ｗ 0998880.99亿港元-9.45亿港元173.50港元21.20%盈富基金 0280031.73亿港元-23 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital saw a significant increase in trading volume today, reaching approximately HKD 137.85 billion, but still experienced a net outflow of about HKD 34.27 billion, marking a continuous outflow trend over the past four trading days totaling approximately HKD 64.88 billion [2][3]. Trading Activity - Southbound trading accounted for 38.13% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index today, with a notable net outflow from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect of approximately HKD 47.72 billion and a net inflow from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect of about HKD 13.45 billion [2]. - Major stocks with significant net inflows included Tencent Holdings (HKD 1.21 billion), Pop Mart (HKD 734 million), Yangtze Optical Fibre (HKD 298 million), and CloudWalk Technology (HKD 74 million) [3]. - Conversely, stocks with substantial net outflows included Alibaba (HKD 945 million), Zijin Mining (HKD 854 million), China Mobile (HKD 748 million), and SMIC (HKD 379 million) [3]. Stock Performance - Tencent Holdings increased by 2.31%, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 80,000 shares over the past five days, but has seen a return of capital in the last three days [4]. - Pop Mart surged by 7.03%, with an increase of 19.44 million shares over the past five days, indicating a continued inflow trend [5]. - Yangtze Optical Fibre rose by 15.43%, despite a reduction of 6.78 million shares in the previous five days, suggesting a short-term outflow [5]. - CloudWalk Technology experienced a significant increase of 73.79%, with an addition of 440,000 shares over the past five days, indicating accelerated inflow [5]. - Alibaba saw a rise of 2.12%, with an increase of 27.08 million shares over the past five days, maintaining a short-term inflow trend [5]. - Zijin Mining increased by 3.13%, but has seen a reduction of 49.81 million shares over the past five days, indicating a short-term outflow [5]. - China Mobile rose by 3.06%, with a reduction of 21.9 million shares over the past five days, continuing the outflow trend [5]. - SMIC increased by 3.52%, with an addition of 44.02 million shares over the past five days, indicating a short-term inflow trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a net sell-off of 34.27 billion HKD from northbound trading, with significant movements in individual stocks, indicating investor sentiment and market dynamics. Group 1: Northbound Trading Summary - Northbound trading saw a net sell of 34.27 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing a net sell of 47.72 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect a net buy of 13.45 billion HKD [1] - The most bought stocks included Tencent (00700), Pop Mart (09992), and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) [1] - The most sold stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Alibaba-W (09988), and Zijin Mining (02899) [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a buy amount of 20.87 billion HKD and a sell amount of 29.31 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 8.44 billion HKD [2] - Tencent (00700) recorded a net buy of 12.09 billion HKD, supported by the announcement of a cash red envelope event worth up to 1 billion HKD [4] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net buy of 7.33 billion HKD, with plans for expansion into North American shopping centers [5] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) had a net buy of 2.97 billion HKD, benefiting from a long-term supply agreement with Meta for fiber optic cables [5] - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) faced a net sell of 23.16 billion HKD, influenced by market sentiment regarding the US dollar [7] - Other notable net sells included China Mobile (00941) with 7.48 billion HKD, Zijin Mining (02899) with 8.54 billion HKD, and Alibaba-W (09988) with 9.44 billion HKD [8]

Core Insights - The consumer base of Pop Mart continues to expand, with 76% of respondents having purchased Pop Mart products for the first time in the past year, and 45% being new buyers in the last three months [2][3] - The survey indicates strong future purchasing intent, with 87% of respondents likely to buy Pop Mart products in the next three months, driven by new series, limited editions, and seasonal releases [2] - Despite a previous decline in the popularity of the LABUBU IP, user growth, repurchase loyalty, and IP appeal remain resilient, supporting a target price of HKD 415 and a buy rating for Pop Mart [3] Consumer Behavior - Approximately 90% of respondents purchased at least two Pop Mart items, with 42% owning between 2 to 5 items, and only 9% indicating they would buy from second-hand platforms [2] - The primary motivations for purchasing include emotional satisfaction, trend-following, gifting, collecting, and personal interest [2] IP Popularity - LABUBU is the most attractive core IP, with 47% of respondents owning LABUBU products, and nearly half of the respondents were introduced to Pop Mart through LABUBU [3] - Other IPs like Twinkle Twinkle, Skullpanda, and Crybaby show higher-than-expected appeal in overseas markets, particularly Twinkle Twinkle leading in ownership in the U.S. [3] Demographics and Spending - 41% of Pop Mart users are aged 18-34, with a balanced gender distribution in the U.S., U.K., and Australia [3] - Average spending varies by country, with Australian respondents spending approximately USD 132 (about RMB 916), followed by China at USD 130, the U.S. at USD 110, the U.K. at USD 108, and Japan at USD 95 (about RMB 659) [3] Recent Developments - Pop Mart's stock price increased by 7.03% to HKD 231.4 following two share buybacks totaling nearly HKD 350 million, aimed at addressing investor concerns about sustainable growth [3][4] - The launch of the new PUCKY series, featuring a sound device that resonates with young consumers' needs for stress relief and blessings, has led to rapid sell-outs and high resale prices on second-hand platforms [4]