Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. showcased its innovative automotive materials and solutions at the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, emphasizing its strategic positioning in "steel + lightweight metal materials + comprehensive solutions" [2][3] Group 1: Product Innovations - Baosteel presented two vehicle body products, BCB EV Meta and BCB EV, highlighting advancements in electric vehicle body design [2] - BCB EV Meta features a platform-based, integrated white body solution, incorporating the first one-piece skateboard chassis from a Chinese steel mill [2] - The ultra-lightweight, high-safety pure electric white body BCB EV reflects Baosteel's commitment to electric, low-carbon, and intelligent industry trends [2] Group 2: Collaborations and Achievements - During the auto show, Baosteel's Central Research Institute and the China Automotive Technology and Research Center signed a joint research agreement focused on smart technology and material applications [3] - Baosteel and FAW-Volkswagen launched China's first low-carbon emission steel parts certified for complete vehicle technology, achieving over 30% carbon reduction through green electricity in the production process [3] - Baosteel's automotive steel division has evolved from following industry trends to leading them, offering comprehensive solutions for new energy vehicles under the SMARTeX initiative [3]

Core Insights - The launch of China's first low-carbon emission steel parts certified for complete vehicle technology took place at the Shanghai Auto Show, showcasing a collaboration between Baosteel, China Baowu Steel Group, FAW-Volkswagen, and others [1][2] - The low-carbon steel part, specifically the fender for the FAW-Volkswagen Magotan, achieved a carbon reduction of over 30% through innovative production processes [1] - Baosteel aims to deepen digital cooperation with FAW-Volkswagen to enhance supply chain collaboration and support the latter's carbon reduction strategy for 2030 [1] Group 1 - The low-carbon steel part is the first to receive certification under the new low-carbon emission steel standard, utilizing high furnace technology to reduce carbon emissions from the source [1] - The production process includes the use of green electricity throughout the cold rolling process, contributing to the overall carbon reduction efforts [1] - Baosteel's commitment to supporting the green transformation of the industry chain is highlighted through its ongoing development of low-carbon metallurgy technology [1] Group 2 - Baosteel showcased its innovative breakthroughs in automotive materials, including the BCB EV Meta, which integrates multiple cutting-edge technologies for a platform-based body solution [2] - The company presented the first integrated skateboard chassis and other advanced components, demonstrating its capability to provide a variety of ultra-high-strength steel materials for the new energy vehicle market [2] - Over 130 exhibits were displayed, including low-carbon parts developed in collaboration with automotive users and various lightweight materials [2] Group 3 - Baosteel continues to advance in research and innovation, having signed a joint research agreement with the China Automotive Technology and Research Center to explore new directions in digitalization and material applications [3] - The collaboration aims to integrate domestic large models with steel plant big data, indicating a focus on innovative technological development [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand and reducing supply, with a focus on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [2][4]. - The report highlights an increase in daily molten iron production, with a rise of 4.4 thousand tons to 244.4 thousand tons, indicating a positive trend in production capacity utilization [12][18]. - Inventory levels are decreasing, with total steel inventory down 3.2% week-on-week, suggesting a tightening supply situation [24][25]. - Apparent consumption of steel has slightly declined, with rebar consumption showing a decrease of 5.1% week-on-week [39][47]. - Steel prices are showing signs of strength, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index increasing by 0.7% week-on-week, indicating improved profit margins for steel producers [66][67]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily molten iron production has increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.6% for blast furnaces, up 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [18][24]. - The report anticipates a reduction in crude steel production as part of ongoing supply-side reforms [4][13]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has decreased by 3.2% week-on-week, with significant reductions in both social and factory inventories [24][25]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has decreased by 2.4% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down 5.1% [39][47]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have slightly decreased, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $99.2 per ton, down 0.7% week-on-week [55][67]. Prices and Profits - Steel prices have strengthened, with the report indicating improved profit margins for steel producers due to rising prices and reduced costs [66][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.64 CNY per share [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 322.12 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 6.60% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.36 billion CNY, down 38.36% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.88 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.43 billion CNY [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's steel sales volume was 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while the average product price was 4,507 CNY per ton, down 6.89% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 improved to 7.22%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 CNY per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion CNY, with an overall annual distribution of 4.52 billion CNY, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on optimizing its product structure, with a sales volume of high-end products increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 52.24 million tons of steel in 2025, representing a 1.3% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in international expansion, with export sales reaching 6.07 million tons in 2024, up 3.9% year-on-year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of tariff policies has led to a stabilization and rebound in steel prices. The report highlights that the U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel are expected to decrease significantly, although not to zero, indicating potential fluctuations in tariff policies [5]. - The report anticipates that the profitability of steel companies will improve due to expected adjustments in crude steel production and a more relaxed supply of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal [5]. Price Summary - As of April 25, steel prices have increased, with Shanghai's 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other price changes include: - High line 8.0mm: 3410 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled 3.0mm: 3260 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled 1.0mm: 3710 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton - Common medium plate 20mm: 3490 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [3][12]. Production and Inventory Summary - As of April 25, the production of five major steel products increased to 8.76 million tons, a rise of 31,300 tons week-on-week. Notably, rebar production decreased slightly to 2.2911 million tons. Total inventory of these products decreased by 414,400 tons to 10.8235 million tons [4][5]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.5994 million tons, down 138,800 tons week-on-week, while daily average sales of construction steel increased by 11.56% [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates an increase in steel profitability, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changing by +16 CNY/ton, +6 CNY/ton, and -94 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins increased by +11 CNY/ton [3][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - General Steel Sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - Special Steel Sector: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Xianglou New Materials - Pipe Material: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - It also suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant improvement in Q1 profitability, with a continuous optimization of product structure [1]. - Despite a decrease in revenue and net profit for 2024, the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery in net profit [1][2]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and international expansion, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 72.880 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.434 billion yuan [1][2]. Sales and Margins - Steel sales in 2024 were 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year. The company aims to sell 52.24 million tons in 2025, a 1.3% increase [2]. - The average product price in 2024 was 4,507 yuan/ton, down 6.89% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 7.22% in Q1 2025, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion yuan, with an overall payout of 4.516 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a focus on high-strength steel and silicon steel products, which are gaining market share [3]. - Key projects are progressing, including the establishment of high-end steel production capacities [3]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with a notable increase in export volumes [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.830 billion yuan, 11.122 billion yuan, and 12.427 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [4][5].

Investment Rating - Industry View for China Materials is rated as Attractive [6] - Industry View for China Cement is rated as In-Line [6] - Industry View for China Coal is rated as Cautious [9] Core Insights - The Trump administration has initiated a tariff probe on all US critical mineral imports, which may impact supply chains and pricing in the sector [6][20] - Baosteel is continuing its industry consolidation efforts, investing Rmb9 billion to acquire a 49% stake in Magang Limited [3][6] - Base metals have shown price increases, with Shanghai copper prices up 2.5% week-over-week (WoW) and aluminum prices up 1.3% WoW, while inventories for both metals have decreased [6][10] - Battery metals are under pressure, with prices for lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate declining slightly, and stockpiling expected to continue [2][20] - Gold prices have increased by 2.8% WoW, attributed to Zijin Mining's acquisition of the Akyem Gold Project in Ghana, which has significant production potential [3][34] Summary by Sections Base Metals - Shanghai copper prices increased by 2.5% WoW to Rmb76,380/t, with inventories down 6.2% [10] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 1.3% WoW to Rmb19,830/t, with inventories down 7.4% [10] Battery Metals - Domestic industrial-grade lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 0.3% WoW to Rmb62,750/t, while battery-grade prices also fell by 0.3% to Rmb68,830/t [2][10] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices dropped by 0.2% WoW to Rmb69,650/t, and battery-grade prices fell by 0.4% to Rmb71,450/t [2][10] - Mysteel anticipates continued stockpiling of lithium carbonate in April, with prices under pressure due to flat demand [20] Gold - Gold prices rose by 2.8% WoW to US$3,327/oz, following Zijin Mining's acquisition of the Akyem Gold Project [3][34] Steel - Shanghai HRC prices decreased by 1.8% WoW to Rmb3,220/t, while CRC prices fell by 1.3% to Rmb3,961/t [10] - Long steel inventories decreased by 6.4% WoW, while flat steel inventories fell by 2.0% WoW [10] Cement - Cement prices decreased by 0.7% WoW to Rmb389/t [4][10] Coal - Coal prices remained flat WoW at Rmb678/t, with Qinhuangdao inventory increasing by 11.2% to 6.85 million tons [4][10] - The NDRC has issued a plan to upgrade coal-fired power plants from 2025 to 2027 [28][29]

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, with a preference for gold, cement, building materials, and steel for 2Q25 [7]. Core Insights - Demand in the materials sector showed signs of recovery in 1Q25, but the outlook for 2Q25 is uncertain due to tariff concerns. Domestic excavator sales increased by 38% YoY, and orders from cathode producers rose by 20% due to strong demand from electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage [2]. - The report anticipates that metals-related stocks may outperform in 2H25 as further stimulus is expected [1][6]. - The tariff impact is projected to weigh heavily on the materials space, with a forecasted GDP growth reduction of 30 basis points to 4.2% for 2025 due to tariff shocks and domestic demand impacts [2][18]. Summary by Sections Gold - Gold is identified as the top pick within commodities, supported by ongoing central bank buying and rising ETF inflows. Lower Treasury yields are expected to enhance gold's macro backdrop. Preferred stocks include Zhaojin (1818.HK) and Zijin Mining (2899.HK, 601899.SS) [3]. Cement and Steel - Cement supply-side controls were announced in November 2024, leading to a focus on profitability rather than price wars. The report expects a significant increase in gross profit per ton due to lower coal prices and higher cement prices. For steel, a production cut of 30 million tons and an export cut of 15-20 million tons are anticipated in 2025. Preferred stocks include Anhui Conch (0914.HK, 600585.SS), CNBM (3323.HK), and Baosteel (600019.SS) [4]. Copper and Aluminum - In 2H25, copper and aluminum are expected to outperform due to continued demand from grid and EV-related green infrastructure. Additional fiscal stimulus could further support demand. Preferred stocks include Zijin (2899.HK, 601899.SS), CMOC (3993.HK, 603993.SS), and Hongqiao (1378.HK) [5]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that the current cumulative US tariffs could have a more significant growth drag than in 2018-19, with expectations of trade talks to lower tariffs to 34% by year-end. The tariff shocks are expected to impact both trade channels and domestic demand [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic investment of approximately 9 billion yuan by Baosteel Co., Ltd. in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the internal asset integration of China Baowu Steel Group, aimed at optimizing capacity layout and enhancing market influence in the steel industry [2][4][7]. Investment Details - Baosteel plans to acquire a 35.42% stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel for 5.139 billion yuan and simultaneously increase its capital by 3.861 billion yuan, resulting in a total investment of about 9 billion yuan [3][4]. - After the transaction, Baosteel will hold 49% of Maanshan Iron & Steel, becoming the second-largest shareholder, while Maanshan Iron & Steel will retain a controlling stake of 51% [4]. Industry Context - The steel industry has been facing challenges due to market supply-demand imbalances and fluctuating raw material prices, leading to a divergence in company performance [5][6]. - Baosteel has demonstrated strong resilience and profitability, with a reported revenue of 242.856 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 4.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.882 billion yuan, down 29.56% [5]. Strategic Implications - The investment is seen as a crucial part of China Baowu's internal asset integration strategy, which aims to address competition issues between Baosteel and Maanshan Iron & Steel and enhance overall industry consolidation [4][7]. - The collaboration is expected to optimize production capacity and improve product structure, as Baosteel's strengths in certain steel products complement Maanshan's capabilities in others [8]. Market Positioning - Baosteel's entry into Maanshan Iron & Steel is anticipated to strengthen its market presence in East China, enhancing its competitive edge and market share in the region [8]. - The investment aligns with Baosteel's strategic goals, allowing for better resource allocation and increased competitiveness in high-end steel products [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company experienced a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 2.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.49% [2] - The company's 2024 net profit was 7.362 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.36% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the industry average, indicating resilience [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and deepening its international strategy, with plans to invest approximately 7.23 billion yuan in a joint venture in Saudi Arabia [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, and a basic earnings per share of 0.34 yuan, down 37.04% [1] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.22%, showing a recovery trend compared to previous quarters [2] - The company has successfully reduced costs by 7.43 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, exceeding its annual target [4] Product and Market Strategy - The company produced 51.41 million tons of steel in 2024, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, but its high-value product sales increased by 9.6% [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity for high-value products, including non-oriented silicon steel and oriented silicon steel, which is expected to enhance its profitability [3] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share for the second half of 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to approximately 4.516 billion yuan, representing 61.34% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]